Sunday, September 29, 2013

NHL 2013/14 Projected Scoring Leaders (top 500)

Here is my annual list of predicted NHL scoring for the 2013/14 season. My predictions for the top 500 scorers is determined with a basic regression formula, then modified on an individual basis using a simple formula of standard deviation depending on a player's situation. This determines a projected points per game, which is then multiplied by my estimate of Games Played based on each player's injury situation. These guesses are not perfect, but they were updated as of Sept 27 and are as good of a guess as you'll find in time for your fantasy draft.


Name Team GP PTS
Sidney Crosby PIT 72 112
Steven Stamkos TAM 82 95
Patrick Kane CHI 82 89
Taylor Hall EDM 82 89
Evgeni Malkin PIT 78 88
Alex Ovechkin WAS 82 88
Eric Staal CAR 82 86
Phil Kessel TOR 82 85
John Tavares NYI 82 83
Ryan Getzlaf ANA 80 81
Martin St. Louis TAM 75 80
Pavel Datsyuk DET 76 79
Alexander Semin CAR 80 78
Jonathan Toews CHI 82 78
Anze Kopitar LOS 82 78
Max Pacioretty MON 80 77
Henrik Zetterberg DET 80 77
Jordan Eberle EDM 82 77
Kris Letang PIT 75 77
Nicklas Backstrom WAS 76 75
Jamie Benn DAL 78 75
P.K. Subban MON 82 74
Thomas Vanek BUF 76 74
Andrew Ladd WPG 82 74
James Neal PIT 76 74
Jason Spezza OTT 70 74
Henrik Sedin VAN 82 74
Matt Moulson NYI 81 74
Logan Couture SAN 82 73
Matt Duchene COL 82 73
Nazem Kadri TOR 82 72
Blake Wheeler WPG 82 72
Chris Kunitz PIT 82 72
Claude Giroux PHI 75 72
Jakub Voracek PHI 78 72
Rick Nash NYR 77 71
P.A. Parenteau COL 82 71
Corey Perry ANA 80 71
Derek Stepan NYR 82 69
Joffrey Lupul TOR 65 69
Joe Thornton SAN 79 69
Zach Parise MIN 82 66
Mike Ribeiro PHO 80 66
Erik Karlsson OTT 74 64
Brad Marchand BOS 80 64
Mikko Koivu MIN 82 64
Daniel Sedin VAN 78 63
Ryan Kesler VAN 75 63
Evander Kane WPG 82 63
Tyler Seguin DAL 82 63
Ryan O'Reilly COL 76 62
Cody Hodgson BUF 82 62
Teddy Purcell TAM 82 60
Ray Whitney DAL 72 60
Marian Gaborik COB 76 60
Jason Pominville MIN 80 59
James van Riemsdyk TOR 82 59
Brandon Dubinsky COB 77 58
Jeff Carter LOS 82 58
Vincent Lecavalier PHI 71 58
Patrik Elias NJD 77 58
Jiri Tlusty CAR 82 58
Wayne Simmonds PHI 82 58
Joe Pavelski SAN 82 58
Radim Vrbata PHO 73 58
Alex Chiasson DAL 75 58
Jarome Iginla BOS 74 56
Michael Ryder NJD 78 56
Bobby Ryan OTT 82 56
Jordan Staal CAR 82 56
Colin Wilson NAS 73 56
Patrick Sharp CHI 74 55
Loui Eriksson BOS 82 55
Pascal Dupuis PIT 82 55
Nail Yakupov EDM 82 55
Jonathan Huberdeau FLA 82 55
Chris Stewart STL 82 54
Tyler Ennis BUF 82 54
Dustin Byfuglien WPG 76 54
Bryan Little WPG 82 54
Patrick Marleau SAN 79 54
Tomas Plekanec MON 80 54
Marcus Johansson WAS 73 54
Brendan Gallagher MON 82 54
Brad Richards NYR 76 53
David Krejci BOS 82 53
Brent Burns SAN 73 53
Tomas Fleischmann FLA 75 53
Johan Franzen DET 67 53
David Backes STL 82 53
Justin Williams LOS 81 53
Patrice Bergeron BOS 74 52
Marcus Foligno BUF 82 52
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins EDM 70 52
Jaromir Jagr NJD 73 51
Mike Green WAS 70 51
Cory Conacher OTT 82 51
Shea Weber NAS 82 50
Keith Yandle PHO 82 50
Derick Brassard NYR 82 50
Kyle Turris OTT 82 50
Lee Stempniak CGY 81 50
Brayden Schenn PHI 82 50
Brandon Saad CHI 82 49
Gabriel Landeskog COL 76 49
Derek Roy STL 72 49
David Perron EDM 77 49
T.J. Oshie STL 75 49
Sam Gagner EDM 65 49
Mike Richards LOS 80 49
Devin Setoguchi WPG 82 49
Alexander Steen STL 74 48
Marian Hossa CHI 72 48
Frans Nielsen NYI 82 48
Tyler Bozak TOR 80 48
Sven Baertschi CGY 75 48
Jeff Skinner CAR 76 48
Dustin Brown LOS 78 48
Vladimir Tarasenko STL 75 47
Scott Hartnell PHI 74 47
David Desharnais MON 82 47
Ryan Suter MIN 82 47
Milan Lucic BOS 80 47
Martin Erat WAS 75 47
Justin Schultz EDM 82 47
Dion Phaneuf TOR 82 47
Troy Brouwer WAS 82 46
Jannik Hansen VAN 82 46
Niklas Kronwall DET 81 46
Michael Cammalleri CGY 74 46
Mark Streit PHI 77 45
Jussi Jokinen PIT 74 45
Paul Stastny COL 76 44
Drew Doughty LOS 82 44
Alex Galchenyuk MON 82 44
Brad Boyes NYI 82 44
Kyle Okposo NYI 82 44
Danny Briere MON 76 44
Alex Pietrangelo STL 82 44
Alex Tanguay COL 75 44
Tobias Enstrom WPG 73 44
Curtis Glencross CGY 75 44
Tomas Kopecky FLA 80 43
Alexander Edler VAN 80 43
Martin Hanzal PHO 74 43
Dany Heatley MIN 72 43
Jakob Silfverberg ANA 82 43
Ryan Callahan NYR 72 43
Jiri Hudler CGY 73 43
Mason Raymond TOR 81 43
Patrik Berglund STL 82 43
Milan Michalek OTT 72 42
Mark Letestu COB 81 42
Benoit Pouliot NYR 73 42
Matt Read PHI 75 42
Oliver Ekman-Larsson PHO 82 42
Sergei Gonchar DAL 72 42
Beau Bennett PIT 76 42
David Legwand NAS 80 42
Andrei Markov MON 78 41
Brian Campbell FLA 79 41
Kimmo Timonen PHI 70 41
Alexandre Burrows VAN 79 41
Mikkel Boedker PHO 82 41
Kyle Palmieri ANA 79 41
Lars Eller MON 76 41
Mika Zibanejad OTT 81 40
Adam Henrique NJD 79 40
Kevin Shattenkirk STL 82 39
Daniel Alfredsson DET 71 39
Slava Voynov LOS 82 39
Pierre-Marc Bouchard NYI 75 39
Alex Goligoski DAL 82 39
Joel Ward  WAS 75 39
Damien Brunner NJD 78 39
Mikhail Grabovski WAS 82 39
Mike Fisher NAS 70 39
Cody Eakin DAL 82 39
Patric Hornqvist NAS 67 39
Valtteri Filppula TAM 75 39
Shane Doan PHO 76 38
Dan Hamhuis VAN 80 38
Nikolai Kulemin TOR 82 38
Dennis Wideman CGY 79 38
Jamie McGinn COL 82 38
Matt Cullen NAS 71 38
John Carlson WAS 82 38
Michael Del Zotto NYR 82 38
Jeremy Morin CHI 68 38
Artem Anisimov COB 74 38
Duncan Keith CHI 81 38
Brenden Morrow STL 72 38
Olli Jokinen WPG 75 38
Jimmy Hayes CHI 67 38
David Clarkson TOR 72 37
Antoine Vermette PHO 82 37
Ville Leino BUF 66 37
Michael Grabner NYI 81 37
Tyler Toffoli LOS 72 37
Nick Foligno COB 81 37
Saku Koivu ANA 73 37
Drew Stafford BUF 81 37
Matt Frattin LOS 77 37
Cam Atkinson COB 71 37
Steve Ott BUF 78 37
Josh Bailey NYI 73 37
Ryan Johansen COB 77 37
Paul Martin PIT 76 37
Antoine Roussel DAL 76 37
Brooks Laich WAS 73 36
Andrew Shaw CHI 82 36
Jay Bouwmeester STL 82 36
Clarke MacArthur OTT 75 36
Cody Franson TOR 65 36
Taylor Beck NAS 74 36
Marc Staal NYR 70 36
Patrick Wiercioch OTT 79 36
Ryane Clowe NJD 73 36
Matt Carle TAM 82 36
Teemu Selanne ANA 75 36
Steve Downie COL 65 36
Shawn Matthias FLA 82 36
Alex Killorn TAM 71 36
Ales Hemsky EDM 71 36
Victor Hedman TAM 77 36
Andrew Cogliano ANA 82 35
Zach Bogosian WPG 75 35
Tuomo Ruutu CAR 70 35
Stephen Weiss DET 78 35
Christian Ehrhoff BUF 80 35
Jaden Schwartz STL 82 35
Mikael Backlund CGY 74 35
Dustin Penner ANA 73 35
Jake Gardiner TOR 74 34
Mats Zuccarello NYR 76 34
Andrei Loktionov NJD 70 34
Jack Johnson COB 79 34
Dave Bolland TOR 74 33
Ryan McDonagh NYR 82 33
Travis Zajac NJD 82 33
Dougie Hamilton BOS 81 33
Brandon Sutter PIT 82 33
Mikael Samuelsson DET 63 32
Colin Greening OTT 82 32
Justin Faulk CAR 78 32
Craig Smith NAS 81 32
James Wisniewski COB 67 32
Vladimir Sobotka STL 82 32
Bryan Bickell CHI 82 32
Matt Stajan CGY 74 32
Nick Leddy CHI 82 32
Rich Peverley DAL 73 32
Jonas Brodin MIN 82 32
Eric Fehr WAS 72 32
Fedor Tyutin COB 82 32
Roman Josi NAS 82 31
Magnus Paajarvi STL 79 31
Nick Bonino ANA 65 31
Zdeno Chara BOS 78 31
Mathieu Perreault WAS 72 31
Carl Soderberg BOS 65 31
Gabriel Bourque NAS 65 31
Jean-Gabriel Pageau OTT 67 31
Marcel Goc FLA 72 31
Carl Hagelin NYR 71 31
Francois Beauchemin ANA 73 31
Mikael Granlund MIN 71 31
Raphael Diaz MON 70 31
Dan Boyle SAN 73 30
Brian Flynn BUF 72 30
John Mitchell COL 82 30
Marek Zidlicky NJD 77 30
Tomas Tatar DET 63 30
Marcus Kruger CHI 82 30
Matt Calvert COB 78 30
Charlie Coyle MIN 75 30
Emerson Etem ANA 74 29
Bobby Butler FLA 74 29
Jared Spurgeon MIN 75 29
Rob Klinkhammer PHO 59 29
Brian Gionta MON 76 29
Dmitry Kulikov FLA 75 29
Brent Seabrook CHI 82 28
Tom Pyatt TAM 78 28
R.J. Umberger COB 82 28
Todd Bertuzzi DET 63 28
Michal Rozsival CHI 71 28
Sean Couturier PHI 82 28
Daniel Paille BOS 80 28
Daniel Winnik ANA 82 28
Filip Forsberg NAS 72 28
Roman Horak CGY 65 28
Gustav Nyquist DET 70 28
Jack Hillen WAS 72 27
Shawn Horcoff DAL 65 27
Joe Corvo OTT 73 27
Viktor Stalberg NAS 68 27
Jay McClement TOR 82 27
Nate Thompson TAM 78 27
Grant Clitsome WPG 77 27
Chris Higgins VAN 70 27
Jesse Joensuu EDM 67 27
Cam Fowler ANA 76 27
Rene Bourque MON 72 26
Jason Garrison VAN 82 26
Sergei Kostitsyn NAS 82 26
Derek Dorsett NYR 72 26
Carl Gunnarsson TOR 66 26
Lauri Korpikoski PHO 73 26
Matt Irwin SAN 73 26
Dennis Seidenberg BOS 77 26
Casey Cizikas NYI 75 26
Jason Chimera WAS 77 26
Scott Gomez FLA 67 26
Drew Shore FLA 81 25
Zack Smith OTT 82 25
Jake Muzzin LOS 71 25
Matt Cooke MIN 78 25
David Booth VAN 65 25
Kris Versteeg FLA 65 25
Vernon Fiddler DAL 76 25
Mark Scheifele WPG 74 25
David Moss PHO 75 25
Andy Greene NJD 82 25
Mikhail Grigorenko BUF 72 25
Kyle Clifford LOS 82 25
Steve Bernier NJD 82 25
Zack Kassian VAN 74 25
Brandon Prust MON 71 25
Matt Niskanen PIT 72 24
Kevin Bieksa VAN 71 24
Nathan Horton COB 64 24
Aaron Palushaj CAR 66 24
Ryan Carter NJD 76 24
Richard Panik TAM 64 24
Matt Beleskey ANA 77 24
Tommy Wingels SAN 77 24
Jared Cowen OTT 75 24
Jakub Kindl DET 76 24
Ryan Ellis NAS 73 23
Raffi Torres SAN 60 23
Martin Havlat SAN 55 23
Matt Halischuk WPG 66 23
Kyle Brodziak MIN 82 23
Kevin Klein NAS 82 23
Dainius Zubrus NJD 63 23
T.J. Galiardi CGY 74 23
Dan Girardi NYR 80 23
Ryan Malone TAM 67 23
Nick Spaling NAS 82 23
Nikita Nikitin COB 73 22
Jarret Stoll LOS 75 22
Tyler Johnson TAM 51 22
Chris Kreider NYR 73 22
Erik Gudbranson FLA 73 22
Tyler Myers BUF 75 22
Andrej Sekera CAR 70 22
Boyd Gordon EDM 82 22
Stephen Gionta NJD 82 22
T.J. Brodie CGY 82 22
Colin McDonald NYI 78 22
Brendan Smith DET 78 22
Justin Abdelkader DET 82 22
Michal Handzus CHI 69 22
Tyson Barrie COL 72 21
David Jones CGY 72 21
Alexei Emelin MON 68 21
Sami Salo TAM 68 21
Daniel Cleary DET 78 21
Blake Comeau COB 75 21
Mark Giordano CGY 81 21
Patrick Dwyer CAR 79 20
Cal Clutterbuck NYI 69 20
Mike Weaver FLA 71 20
Radko Gudas TAM 73 20
Jarred Tinordi MON 75 20
Jeff Petry EDM 82 20
Jack Skille COB 68 20
Nathan Gerbe CAR 63 20
Erik Condra OTT 82 20
Dan Carcillo LOS 71 19
Trevor Daley DAL 72 19
Jason Zucker MIN 73 19
Trevor Lewis LOS 82 19
Luke Schenn PHI 82 19
Max Talbot PHI 73 19
Brett Connolly TAM 65 19
T.J. Brennan TOR 55 19
Brad Richardson VAN 69 19
Ron Hainsey CAR 79 19
Matt Martin NYI 82 19
Chris Phillips OTT 78 19
Cody McLeod COL 82 19
Eric Brewer TAM 79 19
Tyler Kennedy SAN 82 19
John Moore NYR 77 19
Lubomir Visnovsky NYI 54 18
Andrew MacDonald NYI 77 18
Andre Benoit COL 65 18
Tomas Kundratek WAS 65 18
Andrew Ference EDM 80 18
Michael Frolik WPG 82 18
Ben Lovejoy ANA 68 18
Scottie Upshall FLA 70 18
Jordan Caron BOS 68 18
Joakim Andersson DET 71 18
Marc Methot OTT 82 18
Erik Johnson COL 72 18
Jordan Schroeder VAN 60 18
Travis Hamonic NYI 82 18
Dwight King LOS 82 18
Kevin Porter BUF 63 18
Zac Rinaldo PHI 72 18
Barret Jackman STL 77 17
Jamie McBain BUF 73 17
Michael Stone PHO 75 17
Erik Cole DAL 76 17
Johnny Oduya CHI 81 17
Niklas Hjalmarsson CHI 82 17
Ryan Wilson COL 71 17
Jonathan Ericsson DET 78 17
Gregory Campbell BOS 70 17
Paul Postma WPG 64 17
Zach Redmond WPG 45 17
Stephane Robidas DAL 77 17
Eric Nystrom NAS 82 17
Derek Morris PHO 71 17
Braydon Coburn PHI 77 17
Yannick Weber VAN 57 17
Nick Bjugstad FLA 73 17
Tim Erixon COB 69 16
Ryan Smyth EDM 74 16
Chris Neil OTT 79 16
Mattias Tedenby NJD 63 16
Alec Martinez LOS 74 16
Rob Scuderi PIT 80 16
Keith Aucoin STL 66 16
Simon Despres PIT 72 16
Chris Kelly BOS 71 16
Marc-Edouard Vlasic SAN 82 16
John-Michael Liles TOR 52 16
Riley Nash CAR 56 16
Brad Stuart SAN 79 16
Maxim Lapierre STL 82 16
Clayton Stoner MIN 82 16
Jacob Josefson NJD 69 16
Taylor Pyatt NYR 81 16
Luca Sbisa ANA 77 16
Steve Oleksy WAS 50 16
Drayson Bowman CAR 71 15
Richard Clune NAS 82 15
Erik Gustafsson PHI 51 15
Alexander Sulzer BUF 69 15
Jay Harrison CAR 80 15
Chris Mueller DAL 54 14
Tomas Vincour COL 58 14
Dalton Prout COB 55 14
Tim Gleason CAR 74 14
Jordan Leopold STL 64 14
Henrik Tallinder BUF 71 14
Keith Ballard MIN 75 14
Matt Hendricks NAS 81 14
Ryan Jones EDM 58 14
Josh Gorges MON 82 14
Kyle Quincey DET 73 14
Chris Tanev VAN 73 14
Danny DeKeyser DET 76 14
Peter Regin NYI 61 13
Sami Vatanen ANA 51 13
Mark Fraser TOR 80 13
Victor Bartley NAS 46 13
Jonathon Blum MIN 66 13
Mark Fistric ANA 58 13
Mike Kostka CHI 62 13
Mark Fayne NJD 70 13
Chris Porter STL 51 13
Keith Aulie TAM 82 13
Sheldon Souray  ANA 52 13
David Schlemko PHO 67 13
Nick Schultz EDM 82 13
Jan Hejda COL 76 13
Mark Pysyk BUF 46 13
B.J. Crombeen TAM 77 13
Adam Larsson NJD 72 13
Torrey Mitchell MIN 79 13
Patrick Eaves DET 59 13
Colin Fraser LOS 67 13
Lane MacDermid DAL 56 13
Jay Beagle WAS 82 12
Justin Braun SAN 74 12
Mike Weber BUF 76 12
Drew Miller DET 75 12
Jeremy Welsh CAR 61 12
Dana Tyrell TAM 62 12
Rostislav Klesla PHO 66 12
Kris Russell CGY 72 12
Brenden Dillon DAL 82 12
Jim O'Brien OTT 55 12
John Erskine WAS 72 12
Dustin Jeffrey PIT 46 11