Artemi Panarin Contract Comparables

Over the Christmas holiday I completed preliminary predictions for the future contracts of pending NHL free agents. My initial projection for Artemi Panarin was 7 years at an Average Annual Value of $7.2M, which in retrospect is too low. It can be difficult predicting free agent contracts for the elite tier of players due to a much smaller sample size. If you widen the parameter search to get a larger sample size to compare to your elite production player, you will reduce the expected salary. 

This season Panarin has scored 69 PTS in 59 GP, which works out to 96 PTS per 82 GP. The number of forwards in the salary cap era who have signed UFA contracts at age 26, 27, or 28 after scoring more than 80 PTS per 82 GP (with at least 40 GP) is very small, and most of those players signed well in advance of July 1. It's extremely rare for a player of Panarin's skill level to reach the open market at his age. This has the potential to create a bidding war and drive up his price tag. 

Below is a list of comparables with their scoring the year before their new contracts began and what those contracts would be.

We can probably scratch off Tim Connolly as a comparable because he had too many injury issues in the seasons before free agency that teams weren't willing to give him significant term. Marchand signed his contract extension in September after coming off a 61-point season, then exploded up to 85 PTS and missed an opportunity to cash in on it. Kovalchuk signed a contract that is now illegal by CBA rules, so his cap number was shrunk down artificially with superfluous term.

The cautionary tale on the comparables list above is obviously Alex Semin. Washington had repeatedly given him 1-year contracts for most of his RFA years, never willing to give him a long-term extension. They were probably concerned that his effort level would plunge if he ever got extended wage certainty, and always wanted that carrot at the end of a short stick. When Rutherford finally gave him a 5-year deal, he immediately fell off the map. By year two he scored 19 PTS in 57 GP and was bought out.

With all that in consideration, the floor for Panarin's upcoming salary looks to be around $9M. An AAV over $11M would put him in the Malkin-zone, and I don't think that anyone would argue he's on that level. I'm sure most teams would feel more comfortable giving him a 5-year term at age 27, but he'll have enough suitors offering him a 7-year contract that 5 years won't be enough to land the big fish. It's hard to argue that he's worth more than Mark Stone, who just agreed to a max term contract at around $9M AAV. Had Stone gone to July 1st, he could have gotten a higher salary, but wouldn't have gotten that 8th year (9x8 > 10x7).

Any team who wants to sign Panarin this summer will probably need to offer at least 7 years $9.5M just to play ball. If your city is one of the places where Artemi desires to live, he may take a slightly smaller offer if he really loves the destination. That's the best-case scenario. Teams should be warned that he's also going to turn 30-years-old three years into this deal, at which point he is at much higher risk of a decline in productivity. This could become an albatross on the back half. Your window of competing for a championship should ideally be in the next 3 years. After that, this Panarin contract could become more of a hindrance than an asset.

My revised prediction for Artemi Panarin is now 7 years $70M, with a $10M AAV. That's where I'd set the over/under for AAV, and I would probably bet the over.