tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-48794889806298338802024-03-15T18:09:13.451-07:00The Hockey Economist's Thought FactoryA blog focusing mostly on fantasy hockey, player contracts, and NHL betting.
My site has moved to Substack (<a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/">click here to subscribe for free</a>). I'll continue posting some stuff here, just to keep my old Slatekeeper site alive. This site was founded back in November 2010.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger1022125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-20728389158074983042024-03-12T17:54:00.000-07:002024-03-12T17:57:52.095-07:002023/24 Week 22 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 22 of the NHL season is here and I have some streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the New York Rangers, who are going
to be very busy with 5 matches in 7 days. The Blue Jackets had the next best
schedule in terms of opponent goal allowing, while the Winnipeg Jets are the
only team playing on all 4 light nights (Kings and Blues each have 3). As
always, make sure you can actually fit a streamer into your starting line-up
before adding. </span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Alexis Lafreniere</b>, NYR, (42% Yahoo ownership): The New York
Rangers have a 5-game week coming up, and former first overall pick Alexis
Lafreniere plays 2nd line with Artemi Panarin, along with power play two. He
has received a few plugs here this season, finally starting to deliver on his
high pedigree. In his last 12 GP, Lafreniere has 9 PTS (1 on the power play)
with 37 shots and 10 hits. He’s pacing for 51 PTS, is available in more than
half of Yahoo leagues, and eligible at both wings. If you’d rather have the
player drafted 3 spots later (and has 23 more career PTS in 60 fewer GP), <b>Lucas
Raymond</b> in Detroit has scored 10 PTS in his last 12 GP (again outpacing
Lafreniere) with 21 shots and 10 hits. Wings play 4. I’m still a little jaded
Detroit lost that lottery…<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Quentin Byfield</b>, LA, (47% Yahoo ownership): What else can I say
about Quentin Byfield that hasn’t already been said in one of the other 10(ish)
plugs he has received here this season? He’s eligible at all 3 forward
positions, plays line one and power play one (I did see him on line 3 with
Dubois at one point recently, but he’s back up top), scoring 12 PTS (1 on the
PP) in his last 14 games with 31 shots and 20 hits. Delivering in multiple
categories, super flexible positioning and available in more than half of
leagues, with Kings playing 3 light nights. Another player plugged here
frequently recently is <b>Sean Monahan</b>, who will be playing 4 games on
light nights, plays line 2 and power play 1, scoring 8 goals (9 PTS, 3 PP) in
his last 12 GP, with 32 shots.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Shayne Gostisbehere</b>, Det, (61% Yahoo ownership): The Red Wings
might be missing their high-end first line center, but they’ll be playing 4
games against non-playoff teams this week, and at least 2 of them have been
leaking lately. The power play may have lost some potency without Larkin doing
his elite first unit centering, but Shayne Gostisbhere does an effective job
quarterbacking the unit. In his last 12 games, Ghost has 8 PTS (3 on the PP)
with 26 shots. If you’d rather a blueliner who delivers more hitting, <b>K’Andre
Miller</b> will be playing 5 games and has 5 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 12
GP with 12 shots and 25 hits. It been a minute since his last plug here, but
he’s popped on the radar from time to time.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Michael Bunting</b>, Pit, (27% Yahoo ownership): Micheal Bunting was
already nominated for my watchlist as a member of the Carolina Hurricanes, but
was traded to another 4-game team, and Daily Faceoff has him slated to play on
the top line with Sidney Crosby and PP1. It remains to be seen how long it
takes to develop chemistry between the two, but they might be a great match.
Bunting had not been hot prior to the move, scoring just 5 PTS (2 on the PP) in
his last 12 GP, but the 36 shots is nice for people in category leagues. If
you’d rather someone hotter, it doesn’t get much warmer than <b>Dylan Strome</b>,
scoring 17 PTS (7 on the PP) in his last 13 GP, with 23 shots. Washington does
have a tougher schedule.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Frederik Andersen</b>, Car, (71% Yahoo ownership): While Freddy
is owned in more leagues than my normal upper limit in these reports, this is
just letting everyone know to have a look on your waiver wire to see if he
happens to be there. I managed to grab him in one on a $5 bid (for context, I
had spent $1 of my $100 waiver budget to this point), dropping Connor Ingram.
Not sure what his start share will be or if he can even stay healthy, but he’s
worth a shot for the chance he’ll resume his role as their #1 guy. Spencer
Martin has played well, so Kochetkov could get sent down again (warning if
you’re holding him, but hang on for now). Another option more widely available
is <b>Jonathan Quick</b>, with Rangers playing 5 and one of the best teams.
Quick has a .905 SV% in the last 30 days and will get at least 2 starts.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Sean Monahan, Lucas Raymond, Jonathan Quick, K’Andre
Miller<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Gustav Nyquist, Rickard Rakell, Noah Hanifin, Charlie Coyle, Anthony
Stolarz <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 26%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Jack Roslovic</b>, NYR, (4% Yahoo ownership): Jack Roslovic was
already nominated for this list as a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets,
getting plugged here last week because Columbus was giving him line 1, PP1 duty
showcasing him for trade. He was traded to the Rangers, who have a 5-game week
coming, and Daily Faceoff has Roslovic penciled onto the top line with
Zibanejad and Kreider. Jack was hot in Columbus before the deal, scoring 13 PTS
in his last 13 GP with 44 shots, eligible at center and RW. One guy safe from
deadline talk because nobody wants his contract is <b>Ryan Strome</b>, but he’s
been productive with 10 PTS (7 on the PP) in his last 12 GP with 18 shots and
10 hits, eligible at both wings.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Fabian Zetterlund</b>, SJ, (2% Yahoo ownership): If I told you there
was a guy available in 98% of leagues, playing line 1, power play 1, with 6 PTS
(3 on the PP) in his last 5 GP, adding 15 shots, is that something you might be
interested in? The Sharks just shipped out several pieces, so there will be
plenty of ice time available for Fabian Zetterlund to stretch his legs. They
have a 4-game week coming up, ranking as the 5th best schedule by total
opponent goal leakage. He generated substantial buzz at one point in his New
Jersey career, then faded into the shadows until now. If you bought the Koolaid
I just sold you, can I interest you in his center? <b>Mikael Granlund</b> (who
is also eligible at RW) has 9 PTS (6 on the PP) in his last 11 GP with 22
shots.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3) <b>Alex Nylander</b>, Cbj, (3% Yahoo ownership): Alex Nylander was
recently traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, and in 7 games is averaging 15:16
ice time, listed on the third line and top power play. The departure of
Roslovic could create an opening for Nylander on line 1, or they leave him in
the current role because it’s been clicking. In his last 7 GP, Nylander has 7
PTS (1 on the PP) and 20 shots. He’s eligible at both wings, was a highly
regarded prospect once upon a time and BJs have a few weak opponents ahead. If
you’d rather have an established veteran, <b>Max Pacioretty</b> has 5 PTS (3 on
the PP) in his last 6 GP with 15 shots and 13 hits. He’s healthy, playing line
2,power play 1, and he’s putting up numbers, available in 85% of Yahoo leagues.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4) <b>Matt
Roy</b>, LA, (24% Yahoo ownership): Matt Roy is another guy plugged here
often this season, who I’m reasonably sure has been on my watchlist every week
LA played 4 games, but going back to check would not be worth the effort. The
reason he keeps popping up is continued production across multiple categories.
In his last 14 GP, Roy has 6 PTS with 19 shots, 30 hits, and a +7. It’s not a
high offensive ceiling, but he checks a few other boxes for those of you in
category leagues (or any format counting hits). Another more widely available
blueline option is <b>Ryan Pulock</b>, who has 6 PTS (2 on the PP) with 24
shots and 22 hits in his last 12 GP. He might have been top billing here if not
for the Isles difficult schedule.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">5) <b>Laurent
Brossoit</b>, Wpg, (24% Yahoo ownership): The Jets have an appealing schedule
coming up, and there’s a very high probably Brossoit will be getting the call
March 15 vs Anaheim. In all likelihood that will be his only start, but with
Anaheim banged up and moving out players, it could be an easy win. Brossoit
continues playing well with a .906 SV% and 3 wins in his last 4 starts. If your
risk tolerance is higher and need a little more volume, the New Jersey Devils
just added <b>Jake Allen</b> and <b>Kaapo Kahkonen</b>, both of whom have
struggled last 30 days and are arguably heading to a worse defensive
environment, but Devils play 4 (the risk is Rangers, Stars, and Golden Knights)
and these two should split the duty. Pick your poison or add both if desperate.
It’s not impossible Allen suddenly gets good with a change of scenery.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Ryan Strome, Mikael Granlund, Max Pacioretty, Jake
Allen, Ryan Pulock<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Torey Krug, Tyler Bertuzzi, Matthew Knies, Philipp Grubauer,
Jack Roslovic<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-7040067120894758232024-03-03T16:52:00.000-08:002024-03-03T16:52:27.088-08:002023/24 Week 21 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 21 of the NHL season is 1
day away and I’m looking ahead at potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the Chicago Blackhawks, who play 4
times, twice against the painfully leaky Arizona Coyotes on a 14-game skid.
None of the 4-game teams play 3 light nights, with a majority playing just one,
so as always, make sure you can actually fit a streamer into your starting
line-up before adding. <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">You can also see my February Fantasy Awards at the bottom of this post.</span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Gustav Nyquist</b>, Nsh, (35% Yahoo ownership): Gustav Nyquist has
been plugged on this report repeatedly this season, mostly due to his line one
power play one assignment and excelling in that role. The winger is scoring at
nearly a 70-point pace, including 14 PTS in his last 12 GP, 3 of those PTS on
the PP. The biggest drawback being the 14 shots and 4 hits in those 11 games,
diminishing his appeal in category leagues. They play 4 times (only 1 light
night) and none of their upcoming opponents currently occupy a playoff spot. If
you need more shots and hits, <b>Sam Bennett</b> has 31 and 29 in his last 11
GP. I’ll be considering him in a league where I’ve got MacKinnon playing all
light nights, so should be able to start Bennett.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Rickard Rakell</b>, Pit, (37% Yahoo ownership): The injury situation
in Pittsburgh has created a line one, power play one opportunity for Rakell to
play alongside Sidney Crosby. Pittsburgh has the 2nd best schedule by total
opponent goals allowed, but only 1 light night. In his last 7 games, Ricky has
7 PTS (1 on the PP) with 20 shots and 15 hits. He’s a multi-category
contributor, with an easy schedule and prime deployment. He played 21 minutes
in their last game against Seattle. Another option with a strong schedule is <b>Boone
Jenner</b>, eligible at both LW and center. In his last 9 GP, Boone has scored
9 PTS (2 on the PP) with 33 shots and 23 hits, centering the top line and the
top power play.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Noah Hanifin</b>, Cgy, (63% Yahoo ownership): Noah Hanifin is
currently among the most discussed NHL players given his pending UFA status and
the Flames perilously close to embracing a full rebuild. He could be traded any
day, possibly to a team with fewer games than Calgary. In his last 10 GP, Hanifin
has 9 PTS (3 on the power play) with 27 shots and a +7. The Flames play 5
games, twice on light nights, the downside being they’ll face some defensively
stingy opponents, so points could be tougher to accumulate. Hanifin also
doesn’t hit much, but one option who does is <b>Jeremy Lauzon</b>, who is on
both my teams, both category leagues that count hits. J.L has 60 hits in his
last 11 GP, adding 3 PTS.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4) <b>Charlie
Coyle</b>, Bos, (54% Yahoo ownership): The Bruins have reunited the top line of
Coyle-Pastrnak-Marchand, at least according to Daily Faceoff, but the coach
seems to like shaking up the lines regularly, so keep an eye on how long this
persists. In his last 12 GP, Coyle has scored 8 PTS (4 on the power play)
adding 19 shots and 19 hits. He did recently have a 5-game pointless drought,
but followed that up with 5 PTS in 5 GP. The center-only eligibility is the
only reason his ownership has stayed this low, even shrinking in the last few
weeks. If you need a winger, <b>Jonathan Huberdeau</b> has quietly been heating
up in Calgary, scoring 11 PTS (4 on the PP) in his last 10 GP, adding 18 shots
and 11 hits.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Anthony Stolarz</b>, Fla, (23% Yahoo ownership): While Stolarz
technically belongs in the deep league section of this report, he’s a more
appealing streaming option for me in the week ahead than anyone in the 25% to
65% ownership range. The Panthers will be playing 4 times and Stolarz has been
outstanding in the last 30 days, with 3 wins and a .944 SV% in his last 4
starts. It appears the coach is starting to allocate more frequent starts, and
it would make sense not to burn out Bobrovsky in the 4th quarter leading to
playoffs. They’ll be facing teams who can score this week, so it’s not without
risk, but Florida might be the league’s best. <b>Petr Mrazek</b> was the next
best candidate given Chicago’s schedule, but it’s a pair of back-to-backs and
Soderblom is likely to draw both Arizona starts (leaving Mrazek with Colorado
and Washington).<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau, Boone Jenner, Jeremy
Lauzon, Petr Mrazek<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Gabe Vilardi, Thomas Chabot, Mason Marchment, Bryan Rust, Joonas
Korpisalo<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 26%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Torey Krug</b>, Stl, (26% Yahoo ownership): Torey Krug has blipped
my radar several times this season, as his offensive output is much improved
over last year. The Blues have a few dangerous forwards that can put the puck
in the net if the D can consistently hit them with passes up ice. In his last
10 GP, Krug has scored 10 PTS (4 on the PP) with 19 shots and 7 hits. It's not
a particularly appealing schedule for St. Louis, but not so bad that he can’t
collect some points on that Blues top unit power play. If you’d rather use that
last D spot to accrue some hitting, <b>Simon Benoit</b> is a good option in
Toronto with 53 in his last 12 games. Giordano and Liljegren are injured, so
the Lyubushkin acquisition shouldn’t hurt Benoit this week.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2) <b>Tyler
Bertuzzi</b>, Tor, (23% Yahoo ownership): Tyler Bertuzzi briefly received a
plug here recently, but was <s>struck off the page</s> 24 hours later after a
3rd period benching. Well Tyler has redeemed himself, earning a spot on the
Leafs second line with William Nylander and their top power play unit. He has 7
PTS in his last 7 GP (6 of those goals) with 3 of those points coming on the
power play. Toronto has scored at least 4 goals in 7 of their last 8 games, so
that’s a nice offense to tap, even playing twice on light nights. Another guy
heating up (sort of) on an elite team’s top unit power play is <b>Morgan Geekie</b>,
eligible at C and RW, scoring 6 PTS in his last 7 GP (3 of those coming same
game, all goals) with 12 shots and 8 hits.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Matthew Knies</b>, Tor, (12% Yahoo ownership): Having already pumped
the Leafs as a team to target, we need to mention Matthew Knies, who continues
to play on the top line with Marner and Matthew, but is not currently listed on
their power play. In his last 12 games, the young winger has accumulated 9 PTS
with 21 shots and 28 hits. It’s a cheap way to collect a few Matthews
residuals, hoping the heater continues. Meanwhile, Knies teammate <b>Bobby
McMann</b> might not be playing top line or power play, but he does have 10 PTS
(1 on the PP) in his last 12 GP with 31 shots, 28 hits, and a +8, currently on
line 3 with Tavares (though only eligible at center). Excellent addition for
category leagues with shots and hits.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Philipp Grubauer</b>, Sea, (22% Yahoo ownership): As Joey
Daccord shareholders are surely already painfully aware, Phil Grubauer is back
from injury and playing fantastic. Daccord surely earned respect from the coach
for holding the fort admirably in Phil’s absence, but in 5 games since his
return, Grubauer has 4 wins with a .947 SV%. Forget that his salary is
substantially higher and management surely wants their money’s worth, at this
level of success the other factors don’t really matter, you need to ride the
hot hand. Seattle only plays 3 times, but this is a potential longer-term play.
Another option is <b>Calvin Pickard</b>, who should get a start this weekend at
least 1 next week. The SV% has been bad, but he wins most of his starts on a powerhouse
team.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Jack Roslovic</b>, Cbj, (2% Yahoo ownership): This might be Jack
Roslovic’s first appearance this season where he has scored at a pedestrian
42-point pace, mostly playing down the line-up when not injured. He’s a pending
UFA and the Columbus Blue Jackets are trying to sell him by the deadline, which
is probably the whole reason he’s currently playing line one and power play
one, trying to boost demand. The production is up, with 8 PTS in his last 8 GP,
which began immediately after ice time was significantly increased. He’s 98%
available. Another option is my guy <b>Nick Schmaltz</b>, though the scoring
pace is down roughly 20 PTS from last season, but Arizona plays 4 and he’s
still playing line one and power play one with 4 PTS in his last 5 GP.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Morgan Geekie, Bobby McMann, Nick Schmaltz, Simon
Benoit, Calvin Pickard<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Anton Forsberg, Shane Pinto, Rasmus Sandin, JJ Peterka, Dylan
Guenther<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><h1 style="text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none; mso-no-proof: yes;">February Fantasy Awards</span></h1><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">February MVF<br /> </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
forward of the month?<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor McDavid<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">
COL<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Auston Matthews<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>TOR<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">William Nylander<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>TOR<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">February MVD<br /> </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
defenseman of the month?<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Roman Josi<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>NSH<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Evan Bouchard<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>EDM<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Josh Morrissey<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>WPG<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">February MVG<br /> </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
goalie of the month?<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Igor Shesterkin</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>NYR<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Sergei Bobrovsky<b> <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></b>FLA<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Juuse Saros<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>NSH<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Stock Rocket Award<br /></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player with biggest increase
in fantasy ownership.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Juraj Slafkovsky</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>MTL<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+30%<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Gabe Vilardi<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>WPG<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+19%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Mason Marchment <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>DAL<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+19%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Thomas Harley<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>DAL<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+18%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Wyatt Johnston<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>DAL<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+16%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">UP Luukkonen<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>BUF<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+16%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Sean Monahan<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>WPG<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+15%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Alexis Lafreniere<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>NYR<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+14%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Anthony Stolarz<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>FLA<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+14%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Pyotr Kochetkov<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>CAR<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+13%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Stock Plunger Award<br /></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Healthy(ish) player with the
biggest drop in fantasy ownership.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Joel Farabee<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>PHI<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-21%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Y. Sharangovich <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>CGY<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-19%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor Ingram<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>ARI<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-17%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Martin Jones<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>TOR<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-17%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Jonathan Drouin<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>COL<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-16%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Oliver Bjorkstrand<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>SEA<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-16%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Eeli Tolvanen<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>SEA<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-15%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Carter Hart<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>PHI<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-14%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nikolaj Ehlers<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>WPG <span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-14%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Brayden Schenn<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>STL<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>-12%<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Jonathan Huberdeau Award<br /></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player most below my point
projection (full season, not just February).<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor Brown<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">EDM<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-29.8 PTS<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Tage Thompson<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>BUF<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-22.6 PTS<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Lukas Reichel<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>CHI<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>-22.5 PTS<br /></span><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Pleasant Surprise Award<br /></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player most exceeding my
point projection (full season, not just February).<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Evan Bouchard</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>EDM<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+25.9 PTS<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Noah Dobson<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>NYI<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+22.7 PTS<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Blake Coleman<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>CGY<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>+22.6
PTS<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Simon Edvinsson Award<br /></span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player I’m most disappointed
to see in the minors.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Simon Edvinsson</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>DET<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Spencer Knight<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>FLA<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Devon
Levi<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>BUF<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-7893347401737504542024-02-19T20:01:00.000-08:002024-02-19T20:01:49.682-08:002023/24 Week 18 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week 18 of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books, as the hockey world begins setting its sights on the trade
deadline and all the ensuing roster volatility. As we brace ourselves for a
transfer of talent from the bottom half of the standings to the top, I’m busy
retrofitting all my models to the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons to prepare for a
strong fourth quarter and ultimately playoffs. Right now, just betting the
biggest position my models are collectively betting seems to be better than any
one model. We’ll see though, as building a more intelligent aggregators was a
big factor compelling me to undertake this renovation. The biggest position may
not always be optimal.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’m repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. Subscribers will also receive weekly picks emails that are not posted on
my blog. If you like what you see in the picks below, you can have many more
delivered directly to your inbox.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Weekly Profit: $338<br /></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Season Profit:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b>$7,104<br /></b><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-19-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sunday Preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> outlined a major project that dominated my weekend and still requires
more work. Roughly 2/3 of my models were already fit to the 2 previous seasons
(recording wagers in each), and once the whole team has a big historical
database of picks, the applications are exciting. First and foremost, I’ll be
able to fit new versions of Max Profit and the Grand Aggregator with more
complex decision making, optimized to a much larger sample. The models that
were not optimized to past years were fit to much smaller samples, which made
them unstable and more prone to wild swings.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Shorting Goalies model is one requiring some grunt
work to retrofit, but it has been performing very well in its current version
thus far in the 3rd quarter. Retrofitting that model required a projected
probability of either goalie starting and obviously travelling backwards in
time to make predictions before those games was played is off the table for at
least a few more years. However, assigning a probability of either goalie
starting based on what happened in the last 10 games was easy. This involved
checking hundreds of permutations spread across 3,500 games, so saving it as a
permanent model to use for projecting starters is probably not worth the effort
in its current form. My brain is very effective at projecting starters (with some
exceptions).<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Goalies Last 30 days retrofit is finished and the
model is now online, along with Tailing History 3.0. Tails was just retrofit to
the 2023/24 season 3 weeks ago, but it would have been the same amount of work
to refit including past seasons, and I’m mad at myself for not thinking to do
that originally. Version 2.0 was only using the previous 2 seasons (to exclude
2021), which meant that my historical database was big enough to fit this to
2021/22 and 2022/23. Anyway, Tails 2.0 was already one of the top models in the
third quarter, but Tails 3.0 is even better (currently first place in my Q3
rankings). Both versions bet the same side in most games, but 3.0 has better
fine tuning.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">New York Rangers</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$828<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Last week the New York Rangers were dead last in my
Profitability Rankings, but they pulled themselves out of the basement going
undefeated last week. Though it should be noted, it took overcoming a 2-goal
deficit in the 3rd period against the Islanders Sunday that made all this
possible (they were #2 in my weekly ranks heading into Sunday). That bet looked
dead in the water until I Tweeted “Damned Rangers…” with a pensive emoji that
I’m reasonably convinced reverse jinxed them to victory. The same trick helped
the Avs overcome a deficit against the Coyotes later that same day (and Edmonton
as I’m finishing this post).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was one of my better weeks betting Washington
games after a horrific 2nd quarter. The main contributor was going 2-0 on their
overs, as their goaltending has struggled while the offense has picked up some
steam. Ovechkin is starting to score again, which is putting him back on track
chasing 99. Darcy Kuemper has been outperforming Charlie Lindgren, but neither
have been good. They lost 6-3 to Colorado then beat Montreal 4-3. Even with the
improved offense, they’ve only won 2 of their last 10 games, so I’m really only
betting them to win against worse teams.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Anaheim Ducks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$700<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Anaheim Ducks were my biggest spoiler in the last
7 days, picking the wrong outcome on all but one of my wagers (the over in
their 9-2 loss to Toronto). They won when I bet them to lose and lost badly
when I bet them +1.5 goals. They lost 5-0 to Montreal, then beat Ottawa 5-1,
then lost to the Leafs 9-2. Where the loss against Montreal convinced me to
pick the Senators, then the win against Ottawa convinced me to take them +1.5
against Toronto and they were demolished. It was a vicious cycle. They have the
ability to punch above their weight when the going is good, but in some
match-ups have a week chin leading to easy knockouts.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The LA Kings were my second worst team of the week, with
most of the damage coming from over/under, mostly a max bet on under 6 goals
when they lost 7-0 to Buffalo. There was also my Sunday over 6.5 when Cam Talbot
was starting, but Cam had his first good game in a long time, his first win since
Dec 23, his first time allowing 1 goal or less since Dec 7. Losing the Penguins
moneyline bet with the Kings on a back-to-back and Talbot starting felt like
slam dunk, but there are no sure things in hockey (well except for Colorado at
home beating teams on a back-to-back, which we’ll get to later).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 18 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYV-ke3sYRz0t0BCgWoC-RIQgL5hh7lQ_uAQ_Teax8EwtpUV1VtsIZzdgdaDqXLZVE8Bwl2w-OrvwVrywJJhioMrHlglYYAwd5ahIz3mvPvo_Yrk4Q5qnVm-f30GcPU1P8Z0cHEnU85MVaK4sBAdfjN7KyRfhyphenhyphenAMBtkfZpjEGu2Gxar3oFGpkF0z7ZRBjl/s558/wk18A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYV-ke3sYRz0t0BCgWoC-RIQgL5hh7lQ_uAQ_Teax8EwtpUV1VtsIZzdgdaDqXLZVE8Bwl2w-OrvwVrywJJhioMrHlglYYAwd5ahIz3mvPvo_Yrk4Q5qnVm-f30GcPU1P8Z0cHEnU85MVaK4sBAdfjN7KyRfhyphenhyphenAMBtkfZpjEGu2Gxar3oFGpkF0z7ZRBjl/w400-h231/wk18A.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My decision to bet more underdogs +1.5 goals after a
good performance last week was exactly the wrong thing to do, at least
initially, going 0-3 Monday and Tuesday with picks shared in my reports before
hitting my next 3 in a row. Still, road teams and favorites -1.5 goals were big
winners (if you bet every visitor -1.5 goals (even dogs) you banked more than
$1,500). If you like betting against tired teams with a rest disadvantage, you
surely lost money this past week, since teams with a rest advantage went 0-7
against opponents who played yesterday. Fortunately, there were fewer
opportunities than usual to short back-to-backs, otherwise your losses could
have been much worse. I’m hoping that’s temporary variance and not an emerging
trend, because my models love shorting btb.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Last week saw unders perform very well as leaguewide save
percentage spiked up to .910 the week after the all-star break, which was just
temporary as it was .895 in the last 7 days (which ranked as the 3rd worst in
18 weeks). Several of my algorithms had a good week, which is a little
surprising when there was a shift in the scoring trend. When the total was 6.5
on the opening line, overs went 13-9. When the total was 6, unders went 8-7-4. My
performance on under 6.5 was bad, but still generated $360 profit betting
over/under this week, following my Small Council of algorithms in every game
but one (which they were right and I was wrong, the Talbot over).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkNCQvDtu7Dvn97L-l_GDtVNF_KEpaDlp5nTIaRqZxmZYKI2xDavjqbUJH_vbQJIRvGcc7MdcybQJrDOUkVMq55wL8aVUQPXjOi31SxE1Wwplf58znzOozr64fXJOF3Q9wjITV_90pwzj-RaPlzbxJeI-tdNq5kEWj7U6yz1YlAVSxM-yqojtPUmwHnw7I/s660/wk18B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkNCQvDtu7Dvn97L-l_GDtVNF_KEpaDlp5nTIaRqZxmZYKI2xDavjqbUJH_vbQJIRvGcc7MdcybQJrDOUkVMq55wL8aVUQPXjOi31SxE1Wwplf58znzOozr64fXJOF3Q9wjITV_90pwzj-RaPlzbxJeI-tdNq5kEWj7U6yz1YlAVSxM-yqojtPUmwHnw7I/w383-h400/wk18B.png" width="383" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Edmonton overs were back with a vengeance after an
extended hot streak by the unders, as their penalty killing recently transitioned
from elite to awful. The best team to bet against overall was the Calgary
Flames (for me as well), as their little post-all-star mini-hot streak after
the Lindholm trade appears to be over. Jacob Markstrom was human in his last 2
starts, getting yanked against Detroit. The Panthers were the best team to bet
on, followed by the San Jose Sharks. Granted, they’re only there because they
beat Calgary 6-3 as a +320 dog, hitting the alt puckline at +665. They lost
their other games, so don’t look at that and start aggressively betting the
Sharks.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsyR8njNeENi-Kb0S8fs8lTbwKO2QntM4EpZhJtZPh3JirPGy6EHOIIv_fYZvMLXC9Jk97OXhecbSKlzP2B1uquY78iinaMhfopuY-VjPR9pr_BTe85h2ejjbWE3hen5AX7CxvN5L7FqJamNPIqbKliwkAHaloZc11TqC4IVxCz4zBktWRzE8BZDV_t18p/s724/wk18PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="584" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsyR8njNeENi-Kb0S8fs8lTbwKO2QntM4EpZhJtZPh3JirPGy6EHOIIv_fYZvMLXC9Jk97OXhecbSKlzP2B1uquY78iinaMhfopuY-VjPR9pr_BTe85h2ejjbWE3hen5AX7CxvN5L7FqJamNPIqbKliwkAHaloZc11TqC4IVxCz4zBktWRzE8BZDV_t18p/s16000/wk18PR.png" /></a></div><br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The “Me vs Myself” section outlines my competition
against my betting models, in my vain attempt to prove my own decision making
is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me vs my creations. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you are new
here and don’t know how the rest of the models work, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-betting-models-explained-updated"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">there’s a link for
that</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Typically, this is where I would share my model
performance from that last week alongside the quarterly standings, however due
to the ongoing remodeling, not all the current numbers are from the new
versions of each model, and I’m also planning an overhaul of Max Profit and the
aggregators once I’m done fitting the others to past seasons.<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was a bad week for my Hedge Fund that bets
against line value, but I’m not worried about that because two of them received
upgrades this weekend and the composite model is going to be optimized to the
historical data after the retrofit is complete (Grand Aggregator too). Instead
of just betting the largest position proportional to the amount, there can be
specific instructions for different scenarios. So, if >60% of the money is
invested in HML and 30% is VML, it might make a different pick than if it’s 60%
HML and 30% H-1.5. It was on version 1.0, but once there is a large historical
sample of games where all the fund members have recorded picks, then it’s
easier to identify the most profitable wagers.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The two models leading my 3rd quarter tournament are Tailing
History 3.0 and Goalies Last 30 Days 2.0, both recently retrofit. Shorting
Goalies 1.0 is in 4th place behind the Grand Aggregator, but is still scheduled
for a retrofit this afternoon. Shorting Travel and Game Sum 2.0 both had bad
weeks and fell off the leaderboard (which I’m defining as the top 9 models who
share their bets in my pick graphics. You’ll notice the order changing each
time I do a new report, as I’m recalibrating constantly to have the best at the
top.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">Tomorrow’s Picks</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Monday was busier than normal, leading to a quieter
Tuesday, but at least there are a few intriguing match-ups (which doesn’t
necessarily mean lucrative to bet, but entertaining to follow). My models had
an exceptionally good Saturday as a collective, if you picked based on % they
invested in each outcome. The good news is all those picks were shared late
Friday night if you follow me on Twitter (as I assume most of you do). My own
week was going poorly until Saturday, mostly tailing my top models. Goalies
Last 30 Days 2.0 is now officially automated.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">NJ @ WSH</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaWwrQwbe64N-iIB2LlSTz4te6EgEzvNuT7EOX-0GY8XaDishOTPsvrDTeUGAhRPvT6QxKPk9YeX907NqV9BAuElY9fTv4BDA5zbGclCt7HD5PrFg_v_oMz_aGxZTLjp7klqPzOOydNe5ED_FpBUeP18QHFpu0QriUy45etYrX_60Wan8x6l5NVUmIAyyJ/s520/G1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiaWwrQwbe64N-iIB2LlSTz4te6EgEzvNuT7EOX-0GY8XaDishOTPsvrDTeUGAhRPvT6QxKPk9YeX907NqV9BAuElY9fTv4BDA5zbGclCt7HD5PrFg_v_oMz_aGxZTLjp7klqPzOOydNe5ED_FpBUeP18QHFpu0QriUy45etYrX_60Wan8x6l5NVUmIAyyJ/s320/G1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My models love New
Jersey -1.5 goals (soliciting 72% of their total investment), and goalie Nico
Daws has delivered 4 quality starts in a row, winning 3 of them, all by at
least 2 goals. I’m going to tail on that Devils puckline at +164. There’s a
chance this could be Akira Schmid or possibly Vanecek, but I think they’ll ride
the hot hand against a divisional opponent battling with them for a wildcard
(they’re only 4 PTS up on Washington). I’m also comfortably taking over 6.5
goals, getting a nice price at +110. That’s at least a little insurance to one
of the other goalies starting.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">OTT @ FLA</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2OCMAcnd0cAK4YgypjGWBP4ZIlocxrSMqW519_PrSXeDr3GVlqWHbEjdKo5MBnWYiSGvB5MQC6sGg_ZgQ7vib7n00al2wjZ6JMRaG1K6h02btVRFeTxi68waq3AyufIP1UcIyVuzzaJBEPY6XnVLCOfhzXLzx2M50KSpAFsj4RpbUoHCQzUBV4mN1esa/s520/G2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiu2OCMAcnd0cAK4YgypjGWBP4ZIlocxrSMqW519_PrSXeDr3GVlqWHbEjdKo5MBnWYiSGvB5MQC6sGg_ZgQ7vib7n00al2wjZ6JMRaG1K6h02btVRFeTxi68waq3AyufIP1UcIyVuzzaJBEPY6XnVLCOfhzXLzx2M50KSpAFsj4RpbUoHCQzUBV4mN1esa/s320/G2.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">The Florida
Panthers might be the best team in the NHL and the Ottawa Senators are playing
Tampa today. The Sens are scrappy, and have the talent to upset any given team
any given night, but since my models are overwhelmingly on Florida 48% ML 37%
PL, I’m making a max bet split between the Panthers ML -230 (60%) and the PL
-105 (40%). The Sens ability to punch above their weight is why I’m not going
all in PL. I’m also going to make a max bet on under 6.5 goals and am getting a
nice price at +105.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">DAL @ NYR</span></b><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja_51ft41eCMQZgWXlw7E_RtAkMEFNtwQ59PKjuFV_DPt0eZ_5D3dIzXZrDrj9e8ZYBLAzZCKprL_ssqk2Fb8qSOH2eww4wJDleO412SfNJ-aPYUsYAc0yElOFl1Rh26EE9IColBLVbg3lvLowuHfTcM3IW4T40tEF5_Ru3tqPNsCQsAJExSynMBlkVljH/s520/G3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja_51ft41eCMQZgWXlw7E_RtAkMEFNtwQ59PKjuFV_DPt0eZ_5D3dIzXZrDrj9e8ZYBLAzZCKprL_ssqk2Fb8qSOH2eww4wJDleO412SfNJ-aPYUsYAc0yElOFl1Rh26EE9IColBLVbg3lvLowuHfTcM3IW4T40tEF5_Ru3tqPNsCQsAJExSynMBlkVljH/s320/G3.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">The Dallas Stars
played Boston today and thus it will be Scott Wedgewood in goal tomorrow. That
alone was enough to put me on New York, bolstered by my models taking a 57%
position on Rangers ML at -142. Dallas is still one of the best teams in the
league, so I’m only making a minimum wager. There was a 3-2 vote on under 6.5
goals, but I’m very uncomfortable with that recommendation. Might be a stay
away. Both these teams can score.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">NYI @ PIT</span></b><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="FR" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBBINjY9o1dqs-IDA3dXIyKNTqAkZuPfVzPXGPWMwuCzK1PgpaYdIzAF_1S032LUyGKPCFbptkF7XQ6Xkq5uFrPMsq4JkHC9YUKoQ84ZVDB_xqKAV5w-u8R_KZ_oUqRLuPsfTw07799qh3T31jgQynpHe5y5yGrVSjF3iGtX8u9xkXmP0VBpWHLYLEC8Mq/s520/G4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBBINjY9o1dqs-IDA3dXIyKNTqAkZuPfVzPXGPWMwuCzK1PgpaYdIzAF_1S032LUyGKPCFbptkF7XQ6Xkq5uFrPMsq4JkHC9YUKoQ84ZVDB_xqKAV5w-u8R_KZ_oUqRLuPsfTw07799qh3T31jgQynpHe5y5yGrVSjF3iGtX8u9xkXmP0VBpWHLYLEC8Mq/s320/G4.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">This game was a
candidate to skip, given my models are split down the middle and these are two
teams I’ve struggled to figure out. NYI ML at +120 was ultimately beat out Pens
ML as the largest position 23% to 22%. My two best models like the Penguins, but
the next 7 are taking the Isles. I might do better flipping a coin to decide my
wager, but am going to take the Isles ML because there’s a higher payout. Under
6 goals passed by a 3-2 vote, but the two taking over are performing poorly on
that bet with these teams last 30 days (12 games had less than 6 goals, while
only 6 games had more.).<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">MIN @ WPG</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipnpQr0BRSkGUj6S4j43yryPzz5HB7nhj-cPjl3LF0cNAJYn5QcWSoexAteUFJ33Ai8M8GiY42_kgWxbAHfKXvs89ziLmf7Hu3I_NuPtLTZlerBoZFozyCCFFJDWMnFfIymHIZ9sg1avfLCocMHojHETnGkxPmWKYh7Fej10rUcEHxX49N4IDAguYPk6Ht/s520/G5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipnpQr0BRSkGUj6S4j43yryPzz5HB7nhj-cPjl3LF0cNAJYn5QcWSoexAteUFJ33Ai8M8GiY42_kgWxbAHfKXvs89ziLmf7Hu3I_NuPtLTZlerBoZFozyCCFFJDWMnFfIymHIZ9sg1avfLCocMHojHETnGkxPmWKYh7Fej10rUcEHxX49N4IDAguYPk6Ht/s320/G5.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Both these teams
play today, so this will be Marc-Andre Fleury vs Laurent Brossoit. The largest
model position is the Minnesota ML at 36%, but 64% of the total money is on
Winnipeg (when I build a smarter version of the Grand Aggregator this week
(hopefully), situations like this will be accounted for). I’m just putting a
minimum wager on the Wild ML +136 because Fleury has been excellent in the last
6 weeks, much better than Brossoit (.952 SV% last 30 days vs .902). Under 6
goals only passed by a 3-2 vote, but the two dissenting voices are getting
destroyed betting over 6.4 with these teams last 30 days. These teams combined
to play 17 games in the last 30 days, 12 went under 6, only 3 went over 6, with
2 pushes. Give me the under, as both back-up goalies are above average.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">VAN @ COL</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCaMOwq1USAYnxo9E9Lk2Z8s8OAULbjnFFY_kd1MO-9NnXa-tCbLKjkxEbp3tLBKdA_xJKVgjAjKXhcVOqw-HB79BGq5u8fRiCd-2Tf9XRWqEgl9rKk0nKZVM41NgMb2ik9Ds9UI-BEeTfqGQgNG0cJkYGQ5iwFsxcsnKlWoxK2fAH-MGmgB8FkRV2LWbj/s520/G6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCaMOwq1USAYnxo9E9Lk2Z8s8OAULbjnFFY_kd1MO-9NnXa-tCbLKjkxEbp3tLBKdA_xJKVgjAjKXhcVOqw-HB79BGq5u8fRiCd-2Tf9XRWqEgl9rKk0nKZVM41NgMb2ik9Ds9UI-BEeTfqGQgNG0cJkYGQ5iwFsxcsnKlWoxK2fAH-MGmgB8FkRV2LWbj/s320/G6.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">This puts me in a
difficult position as both teams are high on my list of favorites to pick, but
the fact that Vancouver just played Minnesota (who has some big bodies who like
to throw their weight around) and are flying up to Denver tonight is a big
selling point. The Canucks are a very good team, but I’m going to take the Avs
ML at -148, with a large wager considering the Canucks are first place in the
NHL. Why? Colorado is 13-1 with a back-to-back advantage on home ice since
October 2019. Heading up to altitude when you’re already gassed is bad for
recovery. Under 6.5 goals passed by a 3-2 vote, but those taking the under are
losing money on that wager with these teams last 30 days. Canucks just lost
10-7, and that data was not used in the computation above. Maybe stay away from
that one.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">NSH @ VEG</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">:<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6JYvZTfXAGYwM4QSjXcSv7Ri8GAWcxiBYHLJj3xov3AHET1oZLM8pRLmlBZaCduLHehI7ieP7NK6p4jm0Y25oQtD9hrNMC07dqVkWx1CvgD9ttPbhS4Q29bErGwDzfOb03_2tIkSqhViPquicG-Cc3j-rnPjX_kSXJ6b9APuxqAGPpZyjn8dtGnfHxQZ3/s520/G7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6JYvZTfXAGYwM4QSjXcSv7Ri8GAWcxiBYHLJj3xov3AHET1oZLM8pRLmlBZaCduLHehI7ieP7NK6p4jm0Y25oQtD9hrNMC07dqVkWx1CvgD9ttPbhS4Q29bErGwDzfOb03_2tIkSqhViPquicG-Cc3j-rnPjX_kSXJ6b9APuxqAGPpZyjn8dtGnfHxQZ3/s320/G7.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">While I’ll confess
to a crisis of confidence in the Nashville Predators lately, I love betting
against home teams on back-to-backs who flew home last night. Maybe that’s less
of an advantage if the Preds spent the night in Vegas enjoying the nightlife (if
I have any subscribers who live in Vegas and plugged into the high-end party
scene, I’d love tips when specific teams are in the process of catching the
Vegas flu). My models are 56% on the Nashville moneyline +124, so that’s my
pick as well. Though if this turns out to be Kevin Lankinen against Adin Hill,
my confidence declines. But that would also make me feel better about over 5.5
goals. This should have been a 5-0 vote, but Game Sum did not have a sample of
games with a 5.5 total involving either team last 30 days (it was programmed
with ties bet under). That might also mean that the line should not be 5.5. I
expect this to reach 6 by puck drop (I actually just checked and it already
moved to 6).<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">CBJ @ LA</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKvC78py3slKRnqrTOo7wNVGe2c1ktnFQW-09awlp2LbBuSl4DHrXDD7puFF2y4fkd9z3lihSkLAeoUnh1zeDRg1mcOnbZ58TGz0dAD7K5j0sJcmEG7a5Sx109wsaWj0e3sG-uo52QibDDBGTzuV8371UdiWEyEBvUXadQ3OvZPQuqWxoIeGOSjZIBKznD/s520/G8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKvC78py3slKRnqrTOo7wNVGe2c1ktnFQW-09awlp2LbBuSl4DHrXDD7puFF2y4fkd9z3lihSkLAeoUnh1zeDRg1mcOnbZ58TGz0dAD7K5j0sJcmEG7a5Sx109wsaWj0e3sG-uo52QibDDBGTzuV8371UdiWEyEBvUXadQ3OvZPQuqWxoIeGOSjZIBKznD/s320/G8.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My initial thought
looking at this game was the Kings getting home from a 6-game road trip, and
are among the worst teams in the league in this situation since October 2019.
Yet Shorting Travel is abstaining because it doesn’t bet road longshots. No
sense me tailing that angle when that specific model won’t even follow. I’ll
put a small wager on Kings ML -258, even though that feels like a crazy price
for a team that had lost 14 of 17 games before the all-star break. At least
they are 4-1 since the break under the new coach. Also give me under 6.5 goals,
which only passed with a 3-2 vote.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-70864156711138676612024-02-19T17:04:00.000-08:002024-02-19T17:04:56.507-08:002023/24 Week 19 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 19 of the NHL season is here and I have some potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the Buffalo Sabres, with 3 of 4 games
on light nights and the leakiest opponents last 30 days. Those light nights
will be important with a busy schedule coming up, including 10 games on Monday
(so I’m not counting that night as light). More than half of the teams play 4
games, so whittling down my watchlist to the final candidates was challenging.
You can see all of them at the bottom of this post, along with my strength of
schedule graphic. Check what nights you have room for streamers. My watchlist
at the bottom should help fit the best streamers to those openings.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Dylan Cozens</b>, Buf, (51% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned in the
preamble, the Buffalo Sabres have the best upcoming schedule, and Dylan Cozens
centers line 2 and power play one. He’s eligible at wing and center, available
in half of leagues, playing 3 times on light nights. In his last 8 GP, Cozens
has netted 8 PTS (2 on the PP), with 27 shots and 8 hits. They’re playing
Mon-Wed-Fri against Anaheim, Montreal and Columbus, all teams that have been
easy to score on lately. They wrap with Carolina on Sunday, which is less
exciting. If you’d rather get more super-star exposure 5v5, <b>Pavel Zacha</b>
is now centering a line with Pastrnak, along with the first unit power play,
scoring 9 PTS in his last 11 GP with 22 shots and 13 hits.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Tyler Seguin</b>, Dal, (57% Yahoo ownership): The Dallas Stars
offense is rolling, and a big contributor has been the second line with Tyler
Seguin, Mason Marchment, and Matt Duchene, which is also the 2nd power play
unit. Seguin has scored 12 PTS in his last 11 GP (4 on the PP) with 25 shots,
is eligible at both wing and center, with the only downside being they play on
all the busy nights, so make sure you’ve got room. I’m also equally interested
in linemate <b>Mason Marchment</b>, who is available in even more leagues,
scoring 13 PTS in his last 10 GP (3 on the PP) with 17 shots and 11 hits.
Ultimately Seguin was given top billing because he’s averaging more ice time,
dual-eligibility, and better shooting stats.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Wyatt Johnston</b>, Dal, (28% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned in the
previous rant, this is not a particularly good week for the Stars, playing on
the busiest nights and just middle of the pack for strength of schedule (ranked
by total opponents expected goals against), but Wyatt Johnston is yet another
hot scorer on that offense worth targeting. He was recently plugged on the
PDOcast with Dmitri Filipovic (not the first plug), where they mentioned him
seeing time on the top line with Hintz and Robertson, though he’s only listed
on line 3 on Daily Faceoff, but 11 PTS and 30 shots in his last 11 GP is
impressive. If you need a few extra hits, you could try <b>Ivan Barbashev</b>
in Vegas, who has 12 PTS and 13 hits in his last 9 GP, playing top line, second
power play, eligible at center/wing.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4) <b>Cam
Fowler</b>, Ana, (29% Yahoo ownership): Cam Fowler has been playing big minutes
for the Ducks, including on the top power play, where he has 5 PTS (4 on the
PP) in their last 3 games. They face Columbus, Buffalo (Luukkonen is
day-to-day), LA, and Nashville. None of those teams (unless Luukkonen plays)
has been able to stop a beach ball lately. Preds just got torched for 9 again
Dallas, Kings for 7 vs Buffalo. Fowler is available in 70% of leagues, and
looking at the schedule (which includes 2 light nights) I doubt that power play
momentum they have going will cool. Speaking of power play workhorses, <b>Zach
Werenski</b> is still available in 40% of leagues and has scored 5 PTS in his
last 6 GP. When healthy, he’s a must own (currently on one of my teams)<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Pyotr Kochetkov</b>, Car, (59% Yahoo ownership): Pyotr
Kochetkov was dropped in some leagues after missing 2 weeks with a concussion,
but he has resumed his role as Carolina’s #1 goaltender and Raanta is out for a
few weeks leaving Spencer Martin to back up. Kochetkov should see a heavy load,
and has a .914 SV% in the 4 games since returning from that conky. The
Hurricanes play 4 times this week, with their opponents right around league
average in wins and goal scoring. Go see if he’s on waivers in any of your
leagues and scoop him up. You may have more luck finding <b>Jonathan Quick</b>,
available in half of leagues (.930 SV% last 30 days). Downside: Shesterkin
might be settling down and they’re facing some high scoring opposition.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Mason Marchment, Zach Werenski, Pavel Zacha, Ivan
Barbashev, Jonathan Quick<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Artturi Lehkonen, Quentin Byfield, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Sam
Bennett, Thomas Harley<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 25%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Anthony Cirelli</b>, TB, (6% Yahoo ownership): The Tampa Bay
Lightning have the 2nd best schedule by my total leakage metric, though only 1
light night, and the Lightning offense has been electric. One of the reasons is
Anthony Cirelli scoring 13 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 11 GP. Tampa has him
centering the second line with Hagel and Paul, also playing on their top power
play unit all the big boys. The downside with Cirelli is the center-only
designation, which should make him tough to start on busier nights. If you only
have room for wingers or light nights, <b>J.J Peterka</b> has been on nice
heater playing with the aforementioned Dylan Cozens, scoring 9 PTS with 32
shots in his last 9 GP (they play 3 light nights).</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2) <b>Nicolas Roy</b>, Veg, (12% Yahoo ownership): The absence of Jack
Eichel in Vegas has created a golden opportunity for Nicolas Roy to center
their top line with Marchessault and Barbashev. The aforementioned Dmitri
Filipovic has long complained about Roy being buried as their 4C (arguably the
best 4C in the league), and now we’re seeing what all the fuss was about. In
his last 9 GP, Roy has scored 13 PTS, with only 11 shots and 5 hits. He’s
eligible at wing and center, but less exciting in a standard categories league.
If you need those peripheral stats, <b>Josh Norris</b> in Ottawa has 20 shots
and 20 hits in his last 9 GP, to go along with 6 PTS, playing top line and top
power play.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Jake McCabe</b>, Tor, (22% Yahoo ownership): The Maple Leafs already thin
defense will be without Morgan Reilly for most of this week, and Jake McCabe is
currently listed on Daily Faceoff as his power play 1 replacement. Jake might
only have 2 PTS in his last 10 GP, but exposure to that top power play unit
gives him added upside while it lasts. He’s even better to own in leagues
counting hits, pumping out 41 in his last 10. McCabe has received a few plugs
here this season, after being largely overlooked for most of the previous few years.
Another guy seeing time on a potent power play is <b>Darren Raddysh</b> in
Tampa, 97% available, 6 PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 11 GP, though only 11
shots and 11 hits.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Nico Daws</b>, NJ, (17% Yahoo ownership): Nico Daws received an
honorable mention here last week because New Jersey had a busy schedule. Little
did I know that Vitek Vanecek would be declared day-to-day shortly after being
added to one of my teams. Daws got the team’s last 3 starts, posting 2 wins,
stopping more than 93% of his team’s shots in each. Vanecek had also been
playing better, so it’s plausible they’ve taken some measures to stop the
bleeding defensively. For a guy available in 80% of leagues, there is at least
some short-term upside until Devils trade for a goalie. If you’d prefer more
job security, <b>Laurent Brossoit</b>’s Jets are playing 4 teams outside the
playoffs, some struggling to score lately.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Sean Monahan</b>, Wpg, (22% Yahoo ownership): The Winnipeg Jets
newly acquired Sean Monahan has slotted as their 2nd line center between
Perfetti and Vilardi, along with the top power play unit. As mentioned in the
previous rant, the Jets are going to be playing a bunch of non-playoff teams
this week (Calgary, Minnesota, Chicago, Arizona) though they struggle more at
scoring goals than preventing them. In his last 10 GP, Monahan has scored 10
PTS (5 on the PP) with 23 shots. If you don’t have room for center-only playing
3 busy nights, you could go with <b>Trent Frederic</b> in Boston, who has
received a few plugs here in the last few months. In his last 11 GP, Frederic
has scored 6 PTS with 14 shots and 19 hits.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Josh Norris, JJ Peterka, Trent Frederic, Laurent
Brossoit, Darren Raddysh<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Dave Rittich, Simon Nemec, Jack McBain, Logan Cooley, Ondrej
Palat<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg2TiX00ZgbeexJhp-XhzhyOw3KQUJ0IM_r84IVU9W67-UizgDzA4gMiCZGZWepaXpK3Yx-ptyev_08qp2BGzCscf7Ntkhgmbo8gK6LVu7Ts_M8Wg3vQeRJBM-siCQboNThpDSeg5woWej2wO3-aWcXVdMAMIsaOYra0uaOEcIDAiNSoTGYDce41yV8mPY/s737/week19sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg2TiX00ZgbeexJhp-XhzhyOw3KQUJ0IM_r84IVU9W67-UizgDzA4gMiCZGZWepaXpK3Yx-ptyev_08qp2BGzCscf7Ntkhgmbo8gK6LVu7Ts_M8Wg3vQeRJBM-siCQboNThpDSeg5woWej2wO3-aWcXVdMAMIsaOYra0uaOEcIDAiNSoTGYDce41yV8mPY/w498-h640/week19sched.png" width="498" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1SqGUcR2LX9vLm5EENllnew54SUpUo1INjIJZO-VfbCDza_mUUqKsGjZ_1WXNMw5cDdbkOzeVvLrWrgHGYJeZY9YOI68M8MCt4bSUTP00nLBwwn9C4ZLqQP-Z_O1O9rrPK8g4YPf0sqW8mUdb68gH32624MZT8A1B-V77eLgweT2D3Qsl5KgdL__sHh37/s1074/week19watch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="878" data-original-width="1074" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1SqGUcR2LX9vLm5EENllnew54SUpUo1INjIJZO-VfbCDza_mUUqKsGjZ_1WXNMw5cDdbkOzeVvLrWrgHGYJeZY9YOI68M8MCt4bSUTP00nLBwwn9C4ZLqQP-Z_O1O9rrPK8g4YPf0sqW8mUdb68gH32624MZT8A1B-V77eLgweT2D3Qsl5KgdL__sHh37/w640-h524/week19watch.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-48275447280700924472024-02-12T17:36:00.000-08:002024-02-12T17:36:43.285-08:002023/24 Week 18 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 18 of the NHL season is 3 is here and I have a few potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the Arizona Coyotes, who play 4
games, all on light nights, and have the most porous opponents (on average)
than the other 2 teams playing 4 times (LA and New Jersey). Unfortunately,
there weren’t many appealing options from those 3 teams in the 65% to 25%
range, so you’ll see a few 3-gamers below. The Yotes have plenty of deep league
options. If you scroll down to see my strength of schedule and watch list
graphics with stats last 30 days and player’s upcoming schedules, it should
help you figure out who best fits into your lineup and when.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Artturi Lehkonen</b>, Col, (34% Yahoo ownership): Artturi Lehkonen
received an honorable mention here last week on the possibility that he could
reclaim his old job on the MacKinnon line. He had not done much since returning
and was playing 3rd line, but his history with MacKinnon made him an ideal
candidate, and speculation became reality. While the Avs only play 3 games,
it’s an easy schedule with a light night mixed in. I had added Drouin in a
league but have since streamed him out. Both Drouin and Lehkonen are listed on
the Avs top power play at Daily Faceoff. Another option with leaky opponents on
their schedule (albeit 3 games) is <b>Troy Terry</b> in Anaheim, who has been
on fire with 10 PTS in his last 6 GP (adding 20 shots).<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Quentin Byfield</b>, LA, (38% Yahoo ownership): Quentin Byfield
might be the only “line one, power play one” 4-game forward in this ownership
range, so he gets the #2 seed. He’s eligible at both center and wing, playing
3rd wheel with Kempe and Kopitar. He recently missed 2 games with an illness
but scored a point in his first game back. In his last 9 GP, Byfield has 7 PTS
(3 on the PP) with 21 shots and 6 hits, available in more than 60% of leagues.
His teammate <b>Trevor Moore</b> is available in much fewer, but eligible at
both wings, scoring 7 PTS in his last 11 GP with an astounding 43 shots. Certainly,
a more valuable piece in any format that counts shots, though there was an
8-shot game vs San Jose to pad that number.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen</b>, Buf, (47% Yahoo ownership): After
struggling early in the season, UPL has been elite in the last 30 days, posting
a .936 SV% and a pair of shutouts. He’s available in one of my leagues and I’ve
been eyeing him as a potential replacement for Talbot (though I’m going to give
Cam the next 4 games with the new coach before dumping my stock). Sabres play
LA, Florida, and Minnesota, so two of those are winnable. <b>Jonathan Quick</b>
also received consideration for this slot, as he’s been outplaying Shesterkin
the last 2 weeks and earning more starts. I just think UPL is more likely to
get more action. Even <b>Joonas Korpisalo</b> is an option with the Sens
playing a very easy schedule. He has improved recently.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br />
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4) <b>Sam Bennett</b>, Fla, (36% Yahoo ownership): This isn’t going to be
an easy week for the Florida Panthers and they are only playing 3 times, but it
is criminal that Sam Bennett’s Yahoo ownership is only 36%, he centers Matthew
Tkachuk who is on fire and 40-goal scoring Verhaege on the other wing. In his
last 11 GP, Bennett has notched 9 PTS (3 on the power play), with 27 shots and
26 hits. Before I get too sanctimonious about his ownership, he’s actually
available in one of my leagues where I have no room for centers. That’s
probably why <b>Charlie Coyle</b> is still only 62% owned despite scoring 15
PTS in his last 11 GP centering Marchand & Pasta. He’s be at 80% with wing
eligibility.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Thomas Harley</b>, Dal, (56% Yahoo ownership): There were no
blueliners with 4-game schedules in this ownership range who appealed to me
this week, and even the 3-gamers were not an exciting list. Though Thomas
Harley did stand out for being the most productive option in the last 30 days,
scoring 10 PTS in 12 GP with 29 shots and 13 hits. He received a few plugs here
in December and January, but I dumped my stock after Heiskanen returned, which
didn’t slow Harley down. Stars do have a tough schedule ahead. I’m still
hanging on to <b>Jeremy Lauzon</b> in both my leagues, just because they’re
category scoring and both need hits (averaging 5.5 per game in his last 10).
Lauzon is a machine even shooting 15 times in his last 10 (better than Gudas).<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Charlie Coyle, Troy Terry, Jonathan Quick, Trevor
Moore, Jeremy Lauzon<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Jonathan Drouin, Charlie Lindgren, Charlie Coyle, Josh Manson, Dakota
Joshua<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 26%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Dave Rittich</b>, LA, (19% Yahoo ownership): The LA Kings have won 2
games in their last 8, firing their coach over the all-star break. This does
inject some uncertainty into the goaltending situation, but the Kings play 4
games and Rittich should play at least 2 of them. He’s been the better of the
two goalies last 30 days, posting a .924 SV% and earned all 3 of the team’s
wins in that span. Big Save Dave briefly joined one of my teams, but was
streamed out. He may get streamed back in if he wasn’t already claimed (12-team
standard league). You could also take a swing on <b>Nico Daws</b> with the
Devils playing 4 and Jack Hughes back. His .896 SV% last 30 days is bad, but
could put up a win or two and is 95% available.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Simon Nemec</b>, NJ, (7% Yahoo ownership): If you’re playing in a
points-only league or just need help in that category, Simon Nemec has scored 7
in his last 11 games (with 1 on the power play). The Devils play 4 times, and
Jack Hughes is back in the lineup as the rising tide raises all boats (in
theory). The rookie defender didn’t see much power play time in their last game,
but played 1:45 vs Colorado. The other downside with Nemec is the low shot and
hit totals, as he doesn’t seem to be doing much of either. If that’s what
you’re looking for, <b>Matt Roy</b> in LA is a better option. In his last 10 GP
he has 3 PTS, 22 shots, and 18 hits. As previously mentioned, the Kings have a
busy schedule, so Roy can help you fill some categories, just not PTS.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Jack McBain</b>, Ari, (1% Yahoo ownership): Jack McBain is currently
centering the top line in Arizona between Keller and Schmaltz, and the Coyotes
won my best schedule of the week award. They play all on light nights, so it
should be easy fitting their centers into your starting line-up (there’s more
coming). McBain is a better option in a league with hits, scoring 5 PTS in his
last 10 GP with 7 shots and 25 hits. If you need shots, his linemate <b>Nick
Schmaltz</b> shoots plenty, with 20 in his last 7 GP (adding 4 PTS in that
span).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Schmaltz also plays on the top
unit power play, which McBain does not, and is eligible at both center and
right wing. Schmaltz has been a frequent streamer of mine the last couple
years, but never seems to sustains a permanent role.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Logan Cooley</b>, Ari, (15% Yahoo ownership): We are now making up
for the lack of Coyote players in the previous section by blowing this out. The
Coyotes currently have Logan Cooley, Barrett Hayton, and Dylan Guenther playing
on a line, which could eventually grow into a potent scoring line. All 3 have
very high draft pedigree and give this team a bright future in Salt Lake City.
In his last 10 GP, Cooley has scored 6 PTS with 16 shots and 13 hits, which
isn’t earth shattering, this is just a good week for Yotes. Cooley isn’t
currently listed on a power play unit, but his linemate <b>Dylan Guenther</b>
is. He’s a little cooler, with 4 PTS in his last 10 GP (with 17 shots), but at
least gives you top power play exposure.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Ondrej Palat</b>, NJ, (2% Yahoo ownership): Ondrej Palat’s
output has slid a long way from his heady days on the Tampa power play, but
he’s playing top line and second power play on one of the few 4-game teams. The
winger has scored 5 PTS in 4 GP since returning from injury, adding 8 shots and
3 hits. They have him playing on a line with Hischier and Bratt, so there’s
some potential upside from this option that’s available in 98% of leagues. Or
if you want another Coyote, <b>Nick Bjugstad</b> offers you a little more help
in category leagues. In his last 10 GP, Nick has scored 5 PTS (which isn’t
thrilling) but 31 shots and 16 hits. The downside of Bjugstad is center-only,
but again he’s playing all light nights, hence why you should add Yotes.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Nick Schmaltz, Matt Roy, Nico Daws, Dylan Guenther<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Samuel Girard, Ross Colton, Max Pacioretty, Laurent Brossoit,
Nick Paul<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV1NWMfjmzWpb8pzAkAM1MOXe5QO_gmQFugRQFCAq-uGV8sAaGDT_m9mrcT78u3pFlBRYNBVNASViRNHn5IayqYUlny5XMYRBLYP21oHtukoujFwm6ciXqW1bpWM5dHvV-Vspo0jt9njviJkJFtxr3Hf6qpLo_SpTIjZURpTyaq55AnLOK8BG0GoQqN8yx/s737/week18sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhV1NWMfjmzWpb8pzAkAM1MOXe5QO_gmQFugRQFCAq-uGV8sAaGDT_m9mrcT78u3pFlBRYNBVNASViRNHn5IayqYUlny5XMYRBLYP21oHtukoujFwm6ciXqW1bpWM5dHvV-Vspo0jt9njviJkJFtxr3Hf6qpLo_SpTIjZURpTyaq55AnLOK8BG0GoQqN8yx/w311-h400/week18sched.png" width="311" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJnmPHqcMyS4_Jox8WN84siNWK7muMaVRyEUCUW5ntQwrvEwHCsRfQZvG6LJKMSEp9Yl7VnGDpYFiorfVwf3rrkgnrQKTVSb5LmSc0VF4Sl80YgGhUsOFzMKCbIJeA329wYpERHvL-9t9lEkUidZjKrLaMnGJqgZ23xFDUoiOK0H28wRTNyPR3Ge4BJXlw/s1132/Week18watch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="918" data-original-width="1132" height="520" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJnmPHqcMyS4_Jox8WN84siNWK7muMaVRyEUCUW5ntQwrvEwHCsRfQZvG6LJKMSEp9Yl7VnGDpYFiorfVwf3rrkgnrQKTVSb5LmSc0VF4Sl80YgGhUsOFzMKCbIJeA329wYpERHvL-9t9lEkUidZjKrLaMnGJqgZ23xFDUoiOK0H28wRTNyPR3Ge4BJXlw/w640-h520/Week18watch.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-8394691296395380422024-02-12T17:34:00.000-08:002024-02-12T17:34:38.713-08:002023/24 Week 17 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week seventeen of the NHL season has been logged into
the history books, as over/under proficiency continued underwriting my bad
moneyline/puckline decisions. In my defense, it did feel like an unusually high
confluence of bad luck slowing my growth, but that’s just an anecdotal
unprovable observation. Washington upsetting Florida, Calgary upsetting Boston,
Washington upsetting Boston, Islanders upsetting Leafs (okay maybe that one was
a stretch). It helped that I’ve adopted a new bet size method proportional to
my “Small Council” of OU advisors that also has a higher bet maximum than
previous. If this proficiency persists, I may scale it up even further. Lean
into what works.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; line-height: 107%;">My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’m
repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate
my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow
through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his
own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is
published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets
with links so you don’t leave. Subscribers will also receive weekly picks
emails that are not posted on my blog. If you like what you see in the picks
below, you can have many more delivered directly to your inbox.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Weekly Profit: $175<br /></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Season Profit:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b>$6,767<br /></b><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was a massive week for unders, which my Small
Council was able to exploit for profit, but makes me look bad for noting that
scoring had increased post-all-star break in previous seasons. Not this year.
The theme of history failing to repeat continued, but that didn’t hurt my
reconstructed Tailing History model, which doesn’t always bet the more
profitable wager historically. It just takes the inputs and picks the ideal
outputs, even when counter-intuitive. My concern after construction was that it
might be built on a house of cards, but so far, the house is still standing.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Tails 2.0 is doing well enough in the 3rd quarter to
earn a spot in my pick graphics, which will continue to fluctuate based on performance.
The order by which they give their picks is now based on merit, using the Q3
leaderboard. Scroll down to the “Me vs Myself” section for more model
commentary and our Tuesday picks. My </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-18-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sunday Preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> introduced 3 new models (one was just a reconstruction of an existing
method), including my first ever over/under model which replaced the algorithm
Formerly Known As Prime on my Small Council of advisors who continue excelling
when working as a team.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What Happened This Week?<br /></span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Looking deeper into the scoring related numbers,
league save percentage was between .897 and .903 for 13 of the previous 16
weeks, before suddenly jumping up to .910 coming out of the all-star break.
That’s the best weekly save percentage on the entire season (next closest was
.906 in week 11 right before Christmas). Compounding the decline was a sharp drop
in shots per game, which had been between 58.6 and 62.6 for the first 16 weeks
before dropping all the way down to 55.8 in the last 7 days. Shooters were
firing fewer shots by a considerable margin, and goalies were stopping more of
them. Whether that’s permanent or just a freak post-all-star occurrence remains
to be seen.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This statistical aberration was likely felt in the
player prop market, with fewer overs hitting on average. One stat I’m not
tracking is total time teams spent on the power play, so if there was a
significant drop in PP time, that could account for the statistical shift we
just saw. Anecdotally from the games I’ve been watching, there still appears to
be plenty of penalties, and much more effort by individual players to convince
the referee to call a penalty. It seems to be a team effort. You’ll see infractions
where every player on the ice will collectively look at the refs and raise
their hands to say “hey you gonna call that?” But we know refs ain’t gonna call
games this way in the playoffs, when the whistles get put away.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The decrease in goal scoring really hurt favorites
-1.5 goals, who had by far their highest output of the season in week 15, which
helped convince me to start laying more on that demographic. Well, that spike
was just temporary, but faves continue to outperform underdogs on the moneyline
(if you bet $100 on each the last 3 weeks, you’re up $700). I’m laying off
pucklines -1.5 for the week ahead, or at least until scoring rebounds and they
start cashing again. Underdogs +1.5 goals have outperformed dog moneylines in 3
of the last 4 weeks, so a revival of that strategy from early 2nd quarter might
be prudent.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Pittsburgh Penguins</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$842<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Pittsburgh Penguins are a team that’s been very
difficult to read if you’re picking wins and losses, which didn’t get any
easier in the past 7 days, but they were a big success story for my Small
Council of over/under algorithms, which went 3-0 with big bets on their unders.
Penguins unders are on fire and my OU team has been capitalizing. Now if only
my team of models focusing on moneylines and pucklines could start improving
the clarity of their forecasts, I’d be set. The Hedge Fund Composite is doing
the best job of any picking Penguin wins and losses in the 3rd quarter, so
maybe that’s the one I should be following.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second best team of the week, the Minnesota Wild,
played the Pittsburgh Penguins (so there is some covariance between them), and
that’s no coincidence considering that was one of my best games of the week,
making a max bet on the under (which was an empty net goal away from being a
push) and taking the Minnesota ML (as I’m more inclined to do for their home
games). The Penguins were on a back-to-back and it was Marc-Andre Fleury 1000
games appreciation night with a long opening ceremony. Competitive as I’m sure
they are, I’m sure a few of his old teammates didn’t want to ruin Flower’s
special night.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Boston Bruins</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$1,109<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">What the Boston Bruins did this week really f**ked me
up. They start by getting embarrassed on home ice by Calgary 4-1 after the
Flames just traded their best center. Then they embarrassed the first place
Canucks 4-0, and if you thought that big victory would build momentum, you were
wrong. They were shutout on home ice 3-0 at the hands of the Washington
Capitals, who had lost 6-straight games. Not sure how all that information
should be absorbed from a forward-looking-strategy perspective. The Bruins
certainly damaged the trust in our relationship this week, so maybe I’ll defer
to the Hedge Fund for Bruins advice, since they seem to have performed the best
under these conditions (they’re divided on tomorrow’s Bruins game).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The New York Rangers were my second worst team of the
week, and have suddenly grown a comfortable lead on last place in my
profitability rankings. It might be time to recuse myself from sharing picks
for Rangers games, or at least provide a disclaimer. Granted, my losses came
almost entirely from over/under, posting a substantial loss on both sides. When
the back-up goalie has a .930 SV% in the last 30 days and the former Vezina
winner is under .890, there’s going to be some wacky variance. Even my new Small
Council couldn’t navigate this shit-storm while they were having an outstanding
week.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Week 17 Results<br /></span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8AYQ0sJQ57J7-xADkFCo-3vMXFLUktK8AjS_-RMM6teO2S8gwMJrhrPvThJgr0mLLiJyLQahfMzXb0NS5_8qUZxWHGoUneTeYeIfL1ETSVaTae1TvUeLpvQlWDAHNY_zT7yMKvms4Z65ARlSgBdtLVUGdNqd9m1gFg6aZwutjI-oVBOWqmzFzH5m2MP6z/s558/wk17A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8AYQ0sJQ57J7-xADkFCo-3vMXFLUktK8AjS_-RMM6teO2S8gwMJrhrPvThJgr0mLLiJyLQahfMzXb0NS5_8qUZxWHGoUneTeYeIfL1ETSVaTae1TvUeLpvQlWDAHNY_zT7yMKvms4Z65ARlSgBdtLVUGdNqd9m1gFg6aZwutjI-oVBOWqmzFzH5m2MP6z/w400-h231/wk17A.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was an odd week from a category distribution
perspective; with favorites outperforming underdogs on the moneyline, but dogs
vastly outperforming their superiors on the puckline, with dogs +1.5 among the
best, and favorites -1.5 nearly the worst of all. Only overs were a bigger
loser in week 17. My models collectively lost $10,000 on faves -1.5, but still
produced a net profit across all categories, so we’ll take that as a win (aside
from Maximus being wounded in battle). Unders were my big winner and home
moneylines between -109 and -149, but my own success and failure becomes much
clearer when you see the team-by-team leaderboards below.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmB6qxq9E5SmVo-8ENsSMAv7DOCZIxhn7DtVicTDvKa2a6GurJSmzKyljp-Rpl7NBwGkMhuf8imaM0Bzm3e-LP-uk8q7mHoh3pFGalZm5o3_ypqvTJxLfA44iV-51YrXSY5zXLEd37SXJLHWr2-CoXoNY3IwMfCk0F3E3mtqko1Hz5J4BXT5bnFlpz59ng/s660/wk17B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmB6qxq9E5SmVo-8ENsSMAv7DOCZIxhn7DtVicTDvKa2a6GurJSmzKyljp-Rpl7NBwGkMhuf8imaM0Bzm3e-LP-uk8q7mHoh3pFGalZm5o3_ypqvTJxLfA44iV-51YrXSY5zXLEd37SXJLHWr2-CoXoNY3IwMfCk0F3E3mtqko1Hz5J4BXT5bnFlpz59ng/w383-h400/wk17B.png" width="383" /></a></div><br />My worst team to bet on includes multiple favorites to
win the Stanley Cup, but it’s not all “bad beats” considering last season’s
Stanley Cup finalists and President’s Trophy winner were on my worst teams to
bet against list. But it was my belief that Calgary would be worse without
Lindholm and Philadelphia would continue their downward spiral that did the
most damage next to Boston. There were several teams who were good under bets,
and few who were good overs. That tends to happen when unders go 24-13-1. If
you bet $100 on each, you banked $909. Exactly zero lines opened at 7 this
week, as books are compensating quickly for declining scoring.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDCCv_Hc6i0fLGtLIn4_E8N-mO1nEwbm45ba2yelskvpdk9jLdWmJAxVRns8scbwpZldGZErKtd7-nqAOBzprC-ewXF2xOHKpFpr573_vKXv6cdtckYwPNxsfQPbKgJNdNTuNVYSCNZih9Y5yo7jEX4DO7DOY40Zvovc8XTKOiAppiFauxnPDOPDurtxuL/s591/wk17C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDCCv_Hc6i0fLGtLIn4_E8N-mO1nEwbm45ba2yelskvpdk9jLdWmJAxVRns8scbwpZldGZErKtd7-nqAOBzprC-ewXF2xOHKpFpr573_vKXv6cdtckYwPNxsfQPbKgJNdNTuNVYSCNZih9Y5yo7jEX4DO7DOY40Zvovc8XTKOiAppiFauxnPDOPDurtxuL/w400-h290/wk17C.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDb6E2Mvoj_VWcYb1CdwJnna3x7BI_ZS9UnznbPLVO3RaimipuhFbYxYjRC-aQm6E874Wjy5tcPQRVx0gmG_HiPfC8OGc-vDI8UgFy0ul2dxHRbg3h_ZRrw4QXf4UR0eZmUrd0GYDdoE11azW9FaedRiabZPusoOEoK41rG4BxPUqSXk56rocXq7U-6PuS/s724/wk17PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="584" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDb6E2Mvoj_VWcYb1CdwJnna3x7BI_ZS9UnznbPLVO3RaimipuhFbYxYjRC-aQm6E874Wjy5tcPQRVx0gmG_HiPfC8OGc-vDI8UgFy0ul2dxHRbg3h_ZRrw4QXf4UR0eZmUrd0GYDdoE11azW9FaedRiabZPusoOEoK41rG4BxPUqSXk56rocXq7U-6PuS/s16000/wk17PR.png" /></a></div><br />The Colorado Avalanche maintain first place in my
profitability rankings despite having a rough week and possibly losing Nathan
MacKinnon to injury. While the Dallas Stars are charging up the leaderboard.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Me vs Myself<br /></span></u></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The “Me vs Myself” section outlines my competition
against my betting models, in my vain attempt to prove my own decision making
is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me vs my creations. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you are new
here and don’t know how the rest of the models work, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-betting-models-explained-updated"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">there’s a link for
that</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Below is the tournament leaderboard for the second
half of the season.</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /><o:p></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1UlLwM07CplyOOaD8S5JLG2cYxXH32PBhiZFg51lmTW9ax4nmvQNzVYZoAFuV4HhIALrYI86Xr8Krsg13XptzGT14bG04pqWOyFiFhunjR4OYWxxinMfxPD8lBviPCSxKieuRFznKM0Wbcsx2HaZPpfaboO_HWklN80Y-3wd359lp7LMbMpfhEj8aczo-/s671/wk17D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="403" data-original-width="671" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1UlLwM07CplyOOaD8S5JLG2cYxXH32PBhiZFg51lmTW9ax4nmvQNzVYZoAFuV4HhIALrYI86Xr8Krsg13XptzGT14bG04pqWOyFiFhunjR4OYWxxinMfxPD8lBviPCSxKieuRFznKM0Wbcsx2HaZPpfaboO_HWklN80Y-3wd359lp7LMbMpfhEj8aczo-/w400-h240/wk17D.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The biggest news in my tournament for the next top
model is that my previously beloved Max Profit (aka Maximus) model suddenly
fell on hard times, finishing in dead last this week, falling far back in Q3
rankings. The concerning angle is that it was a big loser on both underdogs and
favorites moneyline, which was not unlike my own results. Part of that might
have been due to how often I had been tailing Maximus, but I’m starting to lean
more on the aggregator, or at least looking at the total amount that all my
models bet on everything, which is now also being displayed in my pick graphics
(sorry to anyone who misses the short-term Fair Line Estimator).<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Goalies vs Teams model was terminated and replaced
with Game Sum 2.0 (</span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-18-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">introduced yesterday</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">), after GvT 3rd quarter losses sunk below $7,000. That likely means the
original version would be crushing the 3rd quarter, but that concept was proven
so unstable flipping the picks and betting opposite proved profitable, at least
in a smaller sample. Besides, now I can unplug my main worksheet from my goalie
game log spreadsheet (which is massive) and was likely a big reason my entire
spreadsheet performance is slowing down. Impressive job by my Hedge Fund this
week, as betting so-called “negative value” was an excellent method to choose
between favorites and underdogs, which confounded Maximus.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Shorting Goalies is now in first place for the
quarter, emerging as my most successful Hedge Fund member. Below is a table
showing model performance by category. I’ll include Maximus just to let ya’ll
see what went wrong. Also, you can see what the new version of Tailing History
is doing right. Those stats were just for the previous 7 days.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYntelqQ644t3b7HNF5UNq8uLIhPP6fCMkOt7FvmQWDOdeo_DHyyVTmf4Eq0FX26PcKOUmNFdy5TbAMi0ZG6Rvp1SzPX4nsHp0SgDpP3MBxKt1VEtNMFdJoly9rYrd1lKduxMKglbKCZp_U2LwgQDAwsG8xXem0D8H8yuG4lnfwDEFmcPNgIwDeUz7ozAE/s1068/wk17E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="999" data-original-width="1068" height="598" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYntelqQ644t3b7HNF5UNq8uLIhPP6fCMkOt7FvmQWDOdeo_DHyyVTmf4Eq0FX26PcKOUmNFdy5TbAMi0ZG6Rvp1SzPX4nsHp0SgDpP3MBxKt1VEtNMFdJoly9rYrd1lKduxMKglbKCZp_U2LwgQDAwsG8xXem0D8H8yuG4lnfwDEFmcPNgIwDeUz7ozAE/w640-h598/wk17E.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Here are my picks tomorrow, providing at least one
pick for every game. I’ll probably be sending out a picks email exclusively to
my free subscribers on Saturday, and if not I’ll just Tweet my favorite picks. Get
those and all my future picks delivered directly to your inbox be subscribing
at a cost of $0.<br /></span><a name="_Hlk158548295"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk158548295;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk158548295;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">ANA @ MTL</span></b></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk158548295;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark: _Hlk158548295;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGziqemRhddlhEA8iC2S16IAYl13o-HqPfVwMW_LvjmNoaR0wkycE2bzF7SGnWzuPB3hN0ueiA6gsSaAs4dYzvuEpdpSEupkuFjCh47437kBLNoxN53_0HiFSknsHi-g6sCcHx8YMbpoggEWYHGYLXJ8457RnTrwuU7GxzqXgRx41HKpxkIQwLdAz23OZH/s520/G1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGziqemRhddlhEA8iC2S16IAYl13o-HqPfVwMW_LvjmNoaR0wkycE2bzF7SGnWzuPB3hN0ueiA6gsSaAs4dYzvuEpdpSEupkuFjCh47437kBLNoxN53_0HiFSknsHi-g6sCcHx8YMbpoggEWYHGYLXJ8457RnTrwuU7GxzqXgRx41HKpxkIQwLdAz23OZH/s320/G1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Montreal and Anaheim have won the same number of games
in their last 10 (4), while the Ducks have been a better team on the road and
Habs worse at home this season. That’s the primary reason I’m unwilling to pay
-142 for the Montreal ML, but that’s also why my Hedge Fund loves that same
line. If it’s -142 instead of the +113 they think it deserves, then they assume
the books have an angle that strongly favors that team. They don’t need to know
what the angle is, they just react to the line price being off. My models are
going 48% Habs ML and 36% Ducks +1.5 goals. Dogs +1.5 just had a really good
week and it’s been a few since I’ve bet one, so let’s start here at -218. Also
give me over 6 goals, which had strong 4-1 support from the Small Council.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">LA @ BUF</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7zvDSIaAgwDrjjYvJSsLAvf76v-MJ16CGh2CqfWuAHJD7A_lHtOJK2kygKhbzuuIXEHUDs0UecG3LISKrKoV6fKyOWZ_3GwVXi9hoPme8eZbDb-Ct-cUEB6vD9ZaYtE_sl5mSBhoNmT523r7b1SweNPAer5fuDx7Da47MrL8i5RFydMcVXP2VmPYN93eg/s520/G2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7zvDSIaAgwDrjjYvJSsLAvf76v-MJ16CGh2CqfWuAHJD7A_lHtOJK2kygKhbzuuIXEHUDs0UecG3LISKrKoV6fKyOWZ_3GwVXi9hoPme8eZbDb-Ct-cUEB6vD9ZaYtE_sl5mSBhoNmT523r7b1SweNPAer5fuDx7Da47MrL8i5RFydMcVXP2VmPYN93eg/s320/G2.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My problem with making a pick on this game 30ish hours
before puck drop is that the goalies have not been announced, and that’s
important. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been excellent for Buffalo, but there’s no
way I’d want a penny on Buffalo if he does not start. For LA, Dave Rittich has
a .932 SV% last 30 days while Talbot is at a miserable .827.The risk of Talbot
limits how much I’m willing to lay on the Kings, who my models love. They’re
going heavy on Kings -1.5 goals but I’ve pumped the brakes on faves -1.5 and
can’t tail that position. I’ll put a minimum bet on Kings ML at -148 with the
team winning back-to-back, including an impressive 4-0 win against Edmonton in
the first game under the new coach. I also really like under 6 goals, but would
not bet that if it’s Talbot vs Comrie (which I do think is unlikely, but not
impossible it’s those two).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">COL @ WSH</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg73-SVXdV0LHBrnL1pW2GxVnUuYrIlAfj0CybEeX4ZqJtCv9EqoS7d967LzTaBPiq7D9vaw5oUNcTfRIYqEH9F_nsVYw94nsxYxMni4awvKwPaD7qR6SigEJtizrhvA6cok0vBGVwsohiyNdR29oAUsf249Z2_mPeUitfXreSIKjlzwuRkSOh9Eg5OXyax/s520/G3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg73-SVXdV0LHBrnL1pW2GxVnUuYrIlAfj0CybEeX4ZqJtCv9EqoS7d967LzTaBPiq7D9vaw5oUNcTfRIYqEH9F_nsVYw94nsxYxMni4awvKwPaD7qR6SigEJtizrhvA6cok0vBGVwsohiyNdR29oAUsf249Z2_mPeUitfXreSIKjlzwuRkSOh9Eg5OXyax/s320/G3.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Nathan MacKinnon left the Avs previous game with a
face injury, but is expected to play tomorrow. He’s currently on a 3-game
pointless streak which uncoincidentally coincides with the Avs 4-game losing
streak. But you also know what that means, Nathan MacKinnon is angry. My models
are 79% on Colorado but none of us are performing well betting Avs on the road (and
to a lesser extent shorting Washington at home) in the last 30 days. If you
think that losing streak puts value on Caps +140, remember that they’ve also
lost 7 of their last 8 games, and betting against angry MacKinnon can be
terrifying if you’re going to be watching the game. My Small Council loves over
6 goals too.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">CBJ @ OTT</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-fJtmd000Maa6sUzK1USR2sz_YcfGSt2mnXZxwKjhqcfYwdk-hxND2AvLprStp0kaHRdOQfxV0C2F5HzwsHFd1rB0U-ehvYudB5hYorXEtXvNuOgcr2TDRQxIjtRageK6HiTQe_IwK7IrIUxbQTELOCabucqRXbGe0PmQkgWuomawXy4MFAdiAPecqX5A/s520/G4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-fJtmd000Maa6sUzK1USR2sz_YcfGSt2mnXZxwKjhqcfYwdk-hxND2AvLprStp0kaHRdOQfxV0C2F5HzwsHFd1rB0U-ehvYudB5hYorXEtXvNuOgcr2TDRQxIjtRageK6HiTQe_IwK7IrIUxbQTELOCabucqRXbGe0PmQkgWuomawXy4MFAdiAPecqX5A/s320/G4.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The Ottawa Senators have won 6 of their last 10 games
while Columbus won just 3. That’s part of the reason that my models are putting
72% of their money on the Senators, mostly -192 on the moneyline. While Sens
have improved, I’m not -192 confident in this team quite yet. At least
Korpisalo has settled down and is playing average. I’m just going to put a
minimum bet on BJs +1.5 goals, since that’s a category I’m actively trying to
bet more often. It’s just me and Tails, who has been doing well on this pick
last 30 days. My Small Council voted 4-1 at over 6.5 goals, but they’d mostly
bet the under if that moves to 7. My OU model makes max bets on the under every
time the total is at 7 (opening line at least).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">STL @ TOR</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjguYWYzg5u0-5vGRVrLm7cgcxCCt7cS7AU9nYuBuTt5xdL9ijY5dwSDnMpqdpktiKLigaaNyiqAP2MrpaUeNplb88L9qshl-JX86Pdy5uC0HUzriT47ghiE7qPnfkbeckMA1iXgZfp66w5LRFsCtjdmnDwIQ0A_9k663SL2__bxlY05NjpKgZhE9qv9H6e/s520/G6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjguYWYzg5u0-5vGRVrLm7cgcxCCt7cS7AU9nYuBuTt5xdL9ijY5dwSDnMpqdpktiKLigaaNyiqAP2MrpaUeNplb88L9qshl-JX86Pdy5uC0HUzriT47ghiE7qPnfkbeckMA1iXgZfp66w5LRFsCtjdmnDwIQ0A_9k663SL2__bxlY05NjpKgZhE9qv9H6e/s320/G6.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The St. Louis Blues have won 7 of their last 8 games
and 5 of those wins were on the road. The +164 ML number raised my eyebrow and
didn’t take me long to settle on that choice. Both goalies have been playing
well, so it doesn’t matter who gets the start. The Leafs haven’t exactly been
cold, going 5-3 in their last 8, but I’m not paying -192 on a moneyline for a
team that has been worse than their opponent last 3 weeks. I’m just making a
minimum bet, and do have a few tailing (the top models prefer Blues +1.5 goals
which is a safer bet, but I’ll live dangerously because Blues are hot). I’m
taking over 6.5 goals, but that passed with a minority vote. The dissenting
opinions are expecting around 6 goals (Game Sum bets off profit, not the
average last 30 days). This might be a stay away.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">TB @ BOS</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m coming off a terrible week betting Boston games,
so I’ll abstain from sharing my pick for this one. However, I’ll just mention
that there was a 5-0 vote from the Small Council on under 6.5 goals. My Hedge
Fund does the best job betting Bruins, but they’re split on this game. My other
models are also split.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">SEA @ NYI</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs4jrnW6AlpQFLPBq-iGDWIzg7sDuziGUk2y3mXXOA4bkMRrnrTfQoLW7QDt4N4MczL41AENM27-8hruYwyoNspI1RkdScjPWNGRQvzKxk5Pz5hfOdYjqQn_tk39P_CoM1eLAsFzKhJebY83aomR9ERppoqtW30Rv0uKf16AZFTguatnyFpRow5MWw47Ik/s520/G6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjs4jrnW6AlpQFLPBq-iGDWIzg7sDuziGUk2y3mXXOA4bkMRrnrTfQoLW7QDt4N4MczL41AENM27-8hruYwyoNspI1RkdScjPWNGRQvzKxk5Pz5hfOdYjqQn_tk39P_CoM1eLAsFzKhJebY83aomR9ERppoqtW30Rv0uKf16AZFTguatnyFpRow5MWw47Ik/s320/G6.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The Seattle Kraken are going to be playing a
back-to-back, so if Daccord is the starter tonight, we should be seeing Phillip
Grubauer in his first start in months (keep an eye on who is starting tonight),
because I love the Islanders ML at -148 if it’s Grubauer, but only “like” the
Islanders if it’s Daccord. Yet I’m expecting Sorokin in net for the Isles, and
he’s been trending upwards since Patrick Roy took control of the team (my
models are 94% on NYI). Regardless of the goalie match-up, I’ll be taking over
6 goals, which received 4-1 support from the Council.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">CAR @ DAL</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxYLLKC4Cz7jpVmj5Vjkcy-4PQunZu7eS1i78KejvYRiFWx98aLQGH2rl5GD-S9lURoTGrOz7ujooq2d8UqeEL4komh2_hT9JTLu8JfZ_fqB5NXfMU6qx2bn6GWumJASVSG2RcpbTqCH_vVlKeQFp6jXczydlapY1iF_GNk2wXWu2SXwj9SPhnxE-4VKNM/s520/G7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxYLLKC4Cz7jpVmj5Vjkcy-4PQunZu7eS1i78KejvYRiFWx98aLQGH2rl5GD-S9lURoTGrOz7ujooq2d8UqeEL4komh2_hT9JTLu8JfZ_fqB5NXfMU6qx2bn6GWumJASVSG2RcpbTqCH_vVlKeQFp6jXczydlapY1iF_GNk2wXWu2SXwj9SPhnxE-4VKNM/s320/G7.png" width="320" /></a></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>At first glance this looked like a candidate to skip
revealing my pick, as both these teams are good and picking a side initially
felt difficult. But after seeing my model selections, my choice became clearer.
I’ll tail on the Dallas ML -120, but am only putting a minimum bet. You could
also sell me on Canes +1.5 goals. I’m also tailing my Small Council with over
6.5 goals, but that doesn’t feel safe with where the league has been trending,
so I’m not strongly endorsing that pick.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">NJ @ NSH</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-8cmDZdCKFo2JS3U3W5OiPy8W9jVuqiOH2lzZDVRPvKXojDcKADqP9VaAQrlxSBLxPd8YjU3MXrIncoY-tvRpEm1XWMEAOr1pA2m0bGeGJHCXPi-Mj-miwtb0xlFOjoZcBqac_MDujSnTxGRrw00PdtF9NBbiZJmiAWSorYF5jEJ70VbvQMK3leh-oEz8/s520/G8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-8cmDZdCKFo2JS3U3W5OiPy8W9jVuqiOH2lzZDVRPvKXojDcKADqP9VaAQrlxSBLxPd8YjU3MXrIncoY-tvRpEm1XWMEAOr1pA2m0bGeGJHCXPi-Mj-miwtb0xlFOjoZcBqac_MDujSnTxGRrw00PdtF9NBbiZJmiAWSorYF5jEJ70VbvQMK3leh-oEz8/s320/G8.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The biggest news for this game is that Vitek Vanecek
is suddenly day-to-day with an injury, 2 days after joining one of my fantasy
teams. He’s been their most reliable goalie in the last 30 days, so there’s no
way I’m betting them on the second leg of a back-to-back with Akira Schmid in
net. My models are 86% invested in the Predators ML at -115 (which has moved to
-122), so that’s going to be my pick too. The Small Council is taking under 6
goals, but that’s a dangerous bet if the Devils offense gets rolling and the
back-up is protecting their net.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">VAN @ CHI</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoX3l7qtjPwnZVGwBtXb0xu5gVzv0xRUvv6XvqsjQ2LwSqowKWOCiY1MVeWX7rd3oI5Z695caRvIGRTdpXvI0xmw9XK8fOPVETfgdrEBEayI0w4fywVtjcnBinfXslASNbVAKVusKv-HxJkFgrtqNO2PHElu1wzxFKL5_7mwpniUG6sbX0q3pmRDgdjt-/s520/G9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoX3l7qtjPwnZVGwBtXb0xu5gVzv0xRUvv6XvqsjQ2LwSqowKWOCiY1MVeWX7rd3oI5Z695caRvIGRTdpXvI0xmw9XK8fOPVETfgdrEBEayI0w4fywVtjcnBinfXslASNbVAKVusKv-HxJkFgrtqNO2PHElu1wzxFKL5_7mwpniUG6sbX0q3pmRDgdjt-/s320/G9.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The Canucks are playing the 5th and final game of a
compressed road trip, which is why Shorting Travel is jumping in with a max bet
on Blackhawks -1.5 goals (around +500). A few of my other models have interest
in the Hawks but a large majority of the money is on Vancouver. I’m taking the
Canucks ML at -305, but will refrain from a max bet because of the 5 games in 8
days. Also, they play Detroit in their next home game and in the last 4
seasons, Canucks are one of the worst teams when returning from long roadies.
Remember that one for Thursday. I’m also comfortably taking under 6 goals
hoping the Vancouver legs are getting a little gassed (the model took the over
but hasn’t been doing well with that lately).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">DET @ EDM</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgil5bq6t_mQkNH6juE11dHNxXJlvODF80qaClz-P7B0DDmpdpkHGSJWAf6JA0WMf9KX-bdvxCSBYX_19n_Q2Uj95bR2P8Rm2bHgY3AhijBhHvkLpjyYFmGNtEOyXhpK-SaYptCa4ry-aC-fKpzOt0l0dTSh8NUedZd7rGr8mb-Cb3wqmmoBfRMD08Pw7F8/s520/G10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="520" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgil5bq6t_mQkNH6juE11dHNxXJlvODF80qaClz-P7B0DDmpdpkHGSJWAf6JA0WMf9KX-bdvxCSBYX_19n_Q2Uj95bR2P8Rm2bHgY3AhijBhHvkLpjyYFmGNtEOyXhpK-SaYptCa4ry-aC-fKpzOt0l0dTSh8NUedZd7rGr8mb-Cb3wqmmoBfRMD08Pw7F8/s320/G10.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />The Edmonton Oilers have lost 2 of their last 3 games,
but that doesn’t mean that I’m pressing the panic button. They’re still elite, and
my models are investing more than 70% on striking oil tomorrow. I’m just going
to make a minimum bet on Detroit +1.5 goals because more of my better
performing models slightly prefer Detroit (though a few are losing money on
that bet last 30 days). Note that the models betting Detroit are making smaller
bets than those preferring Edmonton. I’ll be betting triple that amount on
under 6.5 goals.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-89481080453747747872024-02-07T18:52:00.000-08:002024-02-07T18:52:09.658-08:002023/24 Week 16 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week sixteen of the NHL season has been logged into
the history books, noting that I’m including the last few games before the
break as part of that week. That’s why there was no report last week, because
otherwise there would be nothing to discuss today. By pushing it back 7 days, I
can give picks for a busier slate of games tomorrow. I did not watch or care
about the All-Star game. Every season this period has become refuge for me to
dig deeper into my numbers, this year studying and improving on my models. The
first order of business (before the break had even begun) was building a new
version of Betting Venues fit to a larger sample (discussed in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-17-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sunday Preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">).<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on
my blog.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvOYa_5ddgPmsGJdq4Y4E4y17dB29LJmOhc6aiQ1cjw68AUdCTeYZn4VrTLptIsxeUZCwoeoFycIgu0hw9mQtHwbmP-A683hmAi2hhFhI5tlBU9Ajxd1TZQhJfsKeBzgz1UpyPMX5fPGi1js4Ec2Uq_tzDtoxP_-IOgAVUs0sUjrjKEj915KB6hKZUUgei/s403/wk16A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="403" data-original-width="332" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvOYa_5ddgPmsGJdq4Y4E4y17dB29LJmOhc6aiQ1cjw68AUdCTeYZn4VrTLptIsxeUZCwoeoFycIgu0hw9mQtHwbmP-A683hmAi2hhFhI5tlBU9Ajxd1TZQhJfsKeBzgz1UpyPMX5fPGi1js4Ec2Uq_tzDtoxP_-IOgAVUs0sUjrjKEj915KB6hKZUUgei/w330-h400/wk16A.png" width="330" /></a></div><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/second-quarter-nhl-betting-report"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Second Quarter Report</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> was published last week, and a disturbing amount of the information is
already obsolete. There are certainly a few observations that can help going
forward, but a few teams suddenly reversed course as the second half began.
That’s the biggest difficulty doing what I do, because successful strategies
don’t just change from year-to-year, they can shift drastically from
week-to-week. I published a betting book last year but have already stopped
promoting it because too many of the strategies don’t work anymore. They did at
the time, but not anymore. That realization became clear as the book was being
finished, so the final and most important rule was checking my weekly reports
to make sure everything is still valid. This is a moving target.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My primary focus
was getting to know my betting models better, as some are still very young, so
exploring strengths and weaknesses will help me make better picks and give
better advice. This started with a simple “how often does each model bet the
same side as each of the other models, how often do they make the exact same
pick, and what is the rate of return when doing so” investigation which was
compared to how all the models perform when disagreeing with each of the
others. From that data it would be easy to extrapolate which models work best
as a team. One of the first things that jumped up off the screen is how well
Maximus works with the Hedge Fund.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">The “co-profit”
sample included 407 games, and a majority of the models investigated made a
pick on every single game in the sample. Granted, handful of these models were
only fit to a specific 230 game sample (running automated for 177 games since).
Goalies vs Teams appears to be in the process of completely collapsing, which I
mused was likely when it finished #1 in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/second-quarter-nhl-betting-report"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">2nd Quarter
Rankings</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">.
I’m expecting the same fate to befall “Goalies Last 30 Days” which is hanging
on a little longer, but it’s betting the opposite of the value it was designed
to find, and I’d prefer the original version work as planned. Maybe the reason
that’s still working is goalies are predictably unpredictable. Like a majority
of hot goalies inevitably cool within 30 days, and visa versa for those
struggling.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Is goalie
performance predictably cyclical? It’s a hypothesis worth testing, and the
longer GL30 sustains respectable performance, the more likely it is to be at
least partially true (at the macro level, if not the micro). I’ll certainly
need more evidence before struggling goalies start getting deliberately
targeted to join my fantasy teams, but I’m leaving my brain open to the
concept. GL30 did perform substantially better when betting the same side as
Max Profit, but that seems to be true for several models. Maximus has developed
the most influence over my own wagers of all the models, so the best strategy
should be pairing Max with teammates who elicit the highest return and make
them a voting block.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In other model news, this was a rough week for a few
Hedge Fund members, most especially Goalies vs Teams, but that was actually
expected. Maybe not this soon, but this was predicted in past posts. It was #1
among my models in the second quarter, but only because there were several
goalies performing the opposite of their past selves. It was not fit to a big
sample, just 230 games in December (which was opposite month for several
netminders). The original version was looking for goalies being themselves, it
was terrible, so I flipped the picks and it was awesome. That’s why it’s in the
Hedge Fund that bets negative value.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The rest of the Fund had mixed results. The Composite
got dragged to Hell by Goalies vs Teams, Weighted Wins, and Shorting Value.
However, Shorting Goalies which also looks for negative value based on my
estimated starter probability, actually turned a profit. That’s a big reason
why I created 3 different models doing different versions of the same thing,
such that the cream would rise to the top and the crap would sink to the
bottom. The Composite model dropped Goalies vs Teams from the decision matrix,
but I’m also not going to turf the Q2 winner after a bad 10 days.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Yesterday was eventful despite a lack of hockey on my
television (which stayed off) with yet another new model coming off the factory
floor. This one was quite different from all the others, originally intended to
a quasi-simple “zig zag” model (betting the loser of the previous game) with a
special interest in playoffs, but by the end it placed a wager on nearly every
game that has been played in the last 3 seasons producing a 17% return. The
inputs were pretty simple: did each team win or lose their previous game, how
many goals did they win or lose by, how many consecutive games has either team
won or lost.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The finishing touches were applied this morning and
I’ll be keeping the cerebral cortex a little closer to the vest because it was
sensational at betting playoff games. The model construction started with the
playoffs, producing a remarkable 40% return. Granted, that’s just 3 playoffs,
so not a comfortably large sample. It’s trained to the small data it bet, and
there’s no guarantee those parameters will carry over to future playoffs. After
the playoff portion was completed, it’s focus was turned on 3.5 regular
seasons, simply looking at whether the home or road team was streaking (bad or
good), if they had won or lost the previous game, and by how much. Nearly every
permutation revealed profitable wagers, though many had tiny margins.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It wagered nearly $1,000,000 fake dollars for a return
of nearly $170,000. I’m very excited for this model, as it is already one of my
best performers on the current schedule as well. I’m a little concerned that
there are 60 sub-compartments to the decision matrix, but most of those have
large samples inside because its spread over 4500 games. The automation is pretty
complex, so there is still some error checking on the fly (I’d like to see the
automated version sustain before trusting it too much). This model is being
called “Betting Loss Trends” because that’s mostly what it does (though it does
make picks based on teams winning their previous game or being on a winning
streak, so it’s more than just Betting Losses).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Edmonton Oilers</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$1,452<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In one week the Edmonton Oilers jumped from #31 in my
profitability rankings up to #19 as they’re on the verge of possibly setting a
new NHL record for longest winning streak. It’s a little embarrassing that it
took me that long into the streak before they rose from the rubble. It was a
deep hole that I had dug, but have picked the Oilers in 12 of their last 14
games. Part of the issue is their lines have been painfully expensive since
before the streak began. The books never bought their struggles. This week I
went 3 for 3 betting their wins/losses, and 3 for 3 betting their unders. Half
the profit you see up there came from big bets on their unders. That’s why they
moved so far up the ranks.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second best team of the week was the Washington
Capitals, but for entirely different reasons. They are descending into
rock-bottom territory, as the goaltending isn’t stealing as many games as in
December. Evidence suggests that Father Time’s may have delivered a knockout
blow to Alex Ovechkin’s goal chase, which is rippling through the rest of the
roster, especially on the power play. I’ll be mostly be betting them to lose
for the rest of the season, unless one of the goalies gets hot, or Ovechkin returns
from the break rejuvenated. Capitals overs also went 3 for 3 and I went 3 for 3
betting them. Please forget what I just wrote when we get to tomorrow’s games…<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Ottawa Senators</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$1,033<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Ottawa Senators went 3-2 this week, and the reason
that was problematic for me is because they went 2-0 on the road and 1-2 at
home. They had previously been a bad road team and better on home ice. That’s
how I’ve been betting them. The script flipped, but I’ll need to see that
persist a little longer before jumping enthusiastically on board the
revolution. Their unders went 3-2 and I had the over in all 5 games. The
goaltending appears to be settling down, and a hot streak could be brewing.
Just as Sens fans were starting to get exciting about the draft lottery,
they’ll catch fire and pick 12th.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second worst team of the week was the Los Angeles
Kings, and the biggest reason why is going 1-11 on their last 12 over/unders.
Their unders had been on a 10-1 run, then their overs went 4-2, then their
unders went 4-2. That kind of flip flopping can even tip up a team of
algorithms who are all looking at different angles. They fired the coach during
the break, though I haven’t been hearing any discourse that the coach was the
reason for their current skid, but that’s outside my purview to measure. The General
Manager handing the coach Cam Talbot, Pheonix Copley, and Dave Rittich to mind
the net surely bore more responsibility for their struggles than coaching.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 16 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgglP5K5KGU8Wj5IB7mZCKXtbGdU4I8wBLp7XLAaIdVJmaBFW0fx86W_h9Qe965rCuQtGiBWRmWFCQymHZka3RZOaMIeDpdClFyIijyBdp_NbVJLW1SD62zvzrWWWs2hbnScyy4nQb559-lZv_dQNfPZup3-RJD9Kr4Gy4lrk-SEeVt3Mju2bIo8dAjwX4i/s558/wk16B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgglP5K5KGU8Wj5IB7mZCKXtbGdU4I8wBLp7XLAaIdVJmaBFW0fx86W_h9Qe965rCuQtGiBWRmWFCQymHZka3RZOaMIeDpdClFyIijyBdp_NbVJLW1SD62zvzrWWWs2hbnScyy4nQb559-lZv_dQNfPZup3-RJD9Kr4Gy4lrk-SEeVt3Mju2bIo8dAjwX4i/w400-h231/wk16B.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />Favorites started the week on fire, but dogs gained
ground as the all-star break grew closer. Some of my initial observations
required revision because they crashed as the week closed. Favorites +1.5 goals
cracked the leaderboard, but that category often requires uncomfortably large
wagers to ensure a nice return. It’s not a category that I’m selecting very
often, but some of my betting models certainly do, and a few are good when following
that path. Unders were my second best category, but they only won the week by a
small margin. My team did a good job at identifying the right ones. However,
overs tend to be better following the all-star break, so keep that in mind
(that may not be playing out tonight).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOTDE5fdiEuhtfZ-JWkRRZ7-jwKQiAtYL0XyVz7Lcropz0klTt3Fx-N5D9tXfcVYbyGyg4W0vUjer6OdgvP8HgQAEh2xwtx_aJL6cDWQGlwb9zWtm03Iq4a6OECNx6aeWEFAtZnfEBgnb6cnZbwBuNCB0tKkDQ0BNwKRH2er2Z2UClG8cGTHayxhgxfdwA/s660/wk16C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOTDE5fdiEuhtfZ-JWkRRZ7-jwKQiAtYL0XyVz7Lcropz0klTt3Fx-N5D9tXfcVYbyGyg4W0vUjer6OdgvP8HgQAEh2xwtx_aJL6cDWQGlwb9zWtm03Iq4a6OECNx6aeWEFAtZnfEBgnb6cnZbwBuNCB0tKkDQ0BNwKRH2er2Z2UClG8cGTHayxhgxfdwA/w383-h400/wk16C.png" width="383" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I finished slightly above zero on my non-OU wagers for
the week, with most of the credit going to Colorado and Edmonton being good,
plus Washington and Chicago being bad. I’m also profiting from the downfall of
the Philadelphia Flyers, who may have been torpedoed by Carter Hart’s sudden
departure and subsequent bad mojo. Samuel Ersson was already starting to
struggle before that happened, and once the entire responsibility was dropped
on his shoulders, it might have been more than he can carry. We’ll return to
that subject in my picks below.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg852pHzsjDoHLAa5oDb2smj5nc4j0ztN9gOZbKTrbRH5xTuQubPqKACWAbgbfxb1z9-ECsLay3KqMSvf4bR1qeYeYsVCd7BrvyOiuWEoqY0JKR1nZpYbeprp0h0ugtK0OBHyCULXAKlBZVhABbK2J7hZ065fE7y0slB8Zi9VjenC_4pRo2Ab_crdk-e-iW/s591/wk16D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg852pHzsjDoHLAa5oDb2smj5nc4j0ztN9gOZbKTrbRH5xTuQubPqKACWAbgbfxb1z9-ECsLay3KqMSvf4bR1qeYeYsVCd7BrvyOiuWEoqY0JKR1nZpYbeprp0h0ugtK0OBHyCULXAKlBZVhABbK2J7hZ065fE7y0slB8Zi9VjenC_4pRo2Ab_crdk-e-iW/w400-h290/wk16D.png" width="400" /></a></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WyDkRP6ySzOz4SrMw99zMlYvMW9pa6Vh7WqdfH4H2_wd7bOsN7QkQUC6v6WYSGES1qGakKKB4byEO-cIoTtqA3TAqRpHhxUtC3gS-uCZkg3moTuBxv6mRPwufqLHK7MSHNPK4TWyOUtFLnKhyphenhyphenkpjo-bIH50l2l0-xK-Jx_srlVXHqPZ0EgilRd3IixKs/s724/wk16PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="584" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6WyDkRP6ySzOz4SrMw99zMlYvMW9pa6Vh7WqdfH4H2_wd7bOsN7QkQUC6v6WYSGES1qGakKKB4byEO-cIoTtqA3TAqRpHhxUtC3gS-uCZkg3moTuBxv6mRPwufqLHK7MSHNPK4TWyOUtFLnKhyphenhyphenkpjo-bIH50l2l0-xK-Jx_srlVXHqPZ0EgilRd3IixKs/s16000/wk16PR.png" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-betting-models-explained-updated"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. That does need to be updated for some of my upgrades completed over
the all-star break. I also found an error in the Grand Aggregator automation
(the macro was pasting a formula instead of the value), in the process of
carrying out repairs, I changed its old picks to also account for the newer
models. Maybe that’s like cheating, but it’s pretend money anyway.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL_Zq6E7hpXY5xXQ0FIDSYEZDAGrgEW2DPwemjPyFWOoqGRBww4TG4TCM-NqaS9L-sk86ZOVOLljKi_2gJ12wFjs87CEAAH-724VngiwL8jUag8EM50AttxFZp-jssAYjbs34WgvIZBF6TW5orpdaClvQmjsrYCrj17Cb6-BJeKCd3YT-PGQWOtZ4S4a_3/s361/wk16E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="361" data-original-width="309" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL_Zq6E7hpXY5xXQ0FIDSYEZDAGrgEW2DPwemjPyFWOoqGRBww4TG4TCM-NqaS9L-sk86ZOVOLljKi_2gJ12wFjs87CEAAH-724VngiwL8jUag8EM50AttxFZp-jssAYjbs34WgvIZBF6TW5orpdaClvQmjsrYCrj17Cb6-BJeKCd3YT-PGQWOtZ4S4a_3/w343-h400/wk16E.png" width="343" /></a></div> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As you can see from the evidence above, it was maybe
sub-optimal to include the algorithm formerly known as Prime on the newly
formed “Small Council” (for my fellow Game of Thrones fans), but it felt wrong
to exclude my ex-primary. That might be why they collectively lost money on 3-2
decisions this past week, but had a very high success rate on 4-1 and 5-0
votes. All the other voting members are turning a 3rd quarter profit. I’m
currently on top of the leaderboard with my own picks, but should probably note
that my max bet sizes are larger. All the others just bet the same amount for
every game. It might be worth investigating if scaling up their picks leads to
greater profit.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-90705146529504409842024-01-29T18:08:00.000-08:002024-01-29T18:08:39.885-08:002023/24 Week 17 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;">Week 17 of the NHL season is here and I have some potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week is a 3-way tie between Vancouver, Colorado,
and Washington, the only teams playing 4 times (all facing similar </span><span style="font-size: 17.3333px;">caliber</span><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> opponents and only 1 light night each). This is a wonky schedule spanning
14-days because of the bye week and all-star break, but if you scroll down to
see my strength of schedule and watch list graphics with stats last 30 days and
player’s upcoming schedules, it should help you navigate this storm.</span><br /> <span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1)<b> Jonathan Drouin</b>, Col, (31% Yahoo ownership): Jonathan Drouin was
featured here 2 weeks ago for his deployment on line 1, power play 1 with
MacKinnon and Rantanen. The Avalanche are one of only 3 teams playing 4 times
with the bye week and Drouin has scored 13 PTS (5 on the PP) in his last 14 GP.
If you do roster Drouin, keep an eye on the Colorado lines to make sure he
hasn’t lost his spot on that line to <b>Artturi Lehkonen</b>, who has returned
from injury and filled that role effectively before. He’s listed on line 3 for
now, but may be worth an add himself to get those 4 games. Frankly I’d rather
let him play a few games and officially moved up the line-up before I’m buying
stock, but you may want to be the early bird in a deeper format.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Charlie Lindgren</b>, Wsh, (42% Yahoo ownership): This isn’t going to be
an easy schedule for the Caps and they’re a middling team at best, but they are
among the few with a busy week, so there aren’t any higher quality options who
will be this busy. Lindgren’s play has slipped in the last few weeks, sinking
below a .900 SV% in the last 30 days after missing some time with an injury.
With Carter Hart possibly facing criminal charges, <b>Samuel Ersson’s</b>
fantasy stock gets a boost. If he’s now the undisputed #1 for a Flyers team
contending for a playoff spot, he should be worth a permanent hold in standard
leagues (despite his recent hot streak cooling off in the last 2 weeks, down to
a .907 SV% last 30 days).</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Charlie Coyle</b>, Bos, (57% Yahoo ownership): Charlie Coyle was my
top waiver target last week as a result of centering line 1 and power play 1
for the Bruins. Sadly, they only play 3 games this week (no light nights) and
Coyle appears to have been demoted to PP2 (usurped by Zacha who is not
guaranteed to hold that role). What’s undeniable is that Coyle has 20 PTS in
his last 16 GP, also putting up quality shot and hit totals. Another player
recommended here last week that’s worth hanging on to is <b>Sam Bennett</b>,
though he was demoted to PP2 after Barkov return (as I warned could happen),
but Barkov was hurt in the game tonight and could miss more time (my fantasy
team certainly hopes Barkov is fine, but if he’s not, Bennett benefits).</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4) <b>Josh
Manson</b>, Col, (32% Yahoo ownership): Josh Manson has survived into my weekly
watchlist top 8 blueline targets a few times in the past month because of the
impressive numbers he’s been putting up for Colorado. In his last 12 GP, Manson
has 8 PTS, 22 shots, and 40 hits. That’s going to help you in a few different
formats and the Avs are the team to target for the bye week. If you’re in a
categories league and REALLY want to crush hits, do what I’ve done and add <b>Jeremy
Lauzon</b>. Nashville only plays 3, but Lauzon is smashing into opponents at a
clip of 5 per game. Manson has a little more offensive upside, but Lauzon is a
hitting machine. I’m eyeing him for my other team too, and may hold permanently
to lock down hits weekly.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Dakota Joshua</b>, Van, (31% Yahoo ownership): Another player
getting plugged here quasi-regularly is Dakota Joshua, who continues putting up
good numbers in Vancouver. In his last 13 GP, Joshua has 8 PTS with 20 shots
and 36 hits. The Canucks play 4 games this week, and there aren’t very many
appealing options outside the top guys you’re unlikely to find on waivers. His
ice time keeps creeping up as that line has been very effective and earning
extra ice (I watch nearly every Canucks game). If you’d rather more offensive
upside, <b>Joel Farabee</b> in Philly is on a nice heater, scoring 18 PTS (5 on
the PP) in his last 16 GP, playing on line 2 and power play 1. Flyers only play
3, otherwise he’d be higher up the list.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Same Bennett, Samuel Ersson, Joel Farabee, Jeremy
Lauzon, Artturi Lehkonen<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Charlie Coyle, Trevor Moore, Sam Bennett, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Hampus
Lindholm<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 26%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Samuel Girard</b>, Col, (11% Yahoo ownership): We have been pumping
up the Colorado Avalanche, so let’s add one more to the list. It would appear
that the player assistance program fixed whatever was ailing Samuel Girard,
scoring 7 PTS in his last 12 GP (with 14 shots and 17 hits). It’s hard to get power
play time on the Avs blueline, so they currently have Girard playing wing on
the 2nd unit. The biggest knock on Girard is his low shot totals, though his
hitting does appear to be up. If you’d rather get even more hits from your defense,
<b>Jake McCabe</b> is a decent choice with 7 PTS in his last 15 GP with 16
shots and 35 hits. Leafs only play 3, but the opponents leak goals comfortably
above average.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Ross Colton</b>, Col, (19% Yahoo ownership): This recommendation
really only applies while Valeri Nichushkin is enrolled in the player
assistance program, since Ross Colton has replaced him on the Avs top power
play. He’s eligible at both center and LW, scoring 8 PTS (2 on the PP) in his
last 12 GP, adding 22 shots and 17 hits. Widely available, good peripheral
stats, 4 games, and exposure to a deadly power play. Sign me up. His teammate <b>Logan
O’Connor</b> doesn’t play on the Avs power play, but that hasn’t stopped him
from catching fire. In his last 14 GP, the winger has 12 PTS with 27 shots, 11
hits, and +8. This is the final Colorado player in this report, but there is
one more down on the watch list.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Max Pacioretty</b>, Wsh, (23% Yahoo ownership): Max Pacioretty received
an honorable mention here recently upon returning from injury, and the
Washington Capitals are one of the few 4-game options. This is the best
possible time to add “Patches” who has scored 7 PTS (3 on the power play) in
his last 11 GP, with 26 shots and 12 hits. The Caps have him playing top line
and top power play with Ovechkin, who admittedly has been wounded by Father
Time. Another player who joins Max on that Caps top power play (and might be
their best PP trigger man now) is <b>T.J Oshie</b>. In his last 8 GP, Oshie has
scored 6 goals and 7 PTS (3 on the PP) with 22 shots and 10 hits after a
painfully slow start to the season.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Laurent Brossoit</b>, Wpg, (18% Yahoo ownership): There are slim pickings
for goalies you can expect to get multiple starts, so you’ll have to settle for
a spot-start option. One back-up who has been lights out last 30 days is
Laurent Brossoit, winning 3 of 4 with a .957 SV%, and should get either the
Flyers or Penguins. The Jets goaltending tandem has been the best in the NHL,
but they have lost 2 games in a row and now Morrissey is banged up. Another
option is <b>Casey DeSmith</b>, who gives you a good shot at a win against
either Detroit or Washington (probably Washington, with Demko likely to face
Carolina and Boston). DeSmith has does have 2 bad starts in his last 4, so his
SV% the last 30 days has fallen, but I’m not terribly concerned.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">5) <b>Nick
Paul</b>, TB, (16% Yahoo ownership): The Tampa Bay Lightning might only
play 3 games, but the Rangers, Islanders, and Blue Jackets have all been easy
to score on lately. Paul plays on the Bolts top unit power play, though his 6
PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 14 GP is a little low, but 29 shots and 11 hits
does provide some additional value in category leagues. I’m less excited about
Paul after writing that analysis, but maybe he’s due for positive regression.
Given the weird schedule, you may want to consider adding someone from
Nashville or Ottawa, who play twice before the break. <b>Josh Norris</b> has 3
PTS in his last 4 GP after missing some time with injury. He plays top line and
second power play.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: T. J Oshie, Jake McCabe, Logan O’Connor, Casey
DeSmith, Josh Norris<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Chandler Stephenson, Trent Frederic, Dave Rittich, Matt Roy, Cole
Sillinger<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaPeXxB82rsC4U-Ub_5z3_8CDpXyC-2GmTQQry-OuCMZHgOnnkA6WS90kHUsAdEoaZgKLx14ri5Y0br7QqnCPuFKX6oU-sXO4UCX_OsJ3E2UyHOtxJuwNJGTzSC9xhXuCI5oHe7q4bIbtMWNuRukEbPvLyCA6sWCaI4ppo7-WldMno4u7tYkowvY6MZxi7/s737/week17sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaPeXxB82rsC4U-Ub_5z3_8CDpXyC-2GmTQQry-OuCMZHgOnnkA6WS90kHUsAdEoaZgKLx14ri5Y0br7QqnCPuFKX6oU-sXO4UCX_OsJ3E2UyHOtxJuwNJGTzSC9xhXuCI5oHe7q4bIbtMWNuRukEbPvLyCA6sWCaI4ppo7-WldMno4u7tYkowvY6MZxi7/w498-h640/week17sched.png" width="498" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQKDrkImsdYQzL8_f0FwjQzs5TJuaXOplCpyD0BiCKx2xQIVETXXKxeTUu8PQGV_j5PV_aJBt1070xzwH5ED5nUfv_6jdiGoFJynUotxUBLMITYmscV29ilyJkay3hHG8SlM9YDplbVCIn_rbHnvtvV2D90-WDRP9PietJt2Mnh6leURu3Q_KLgQmyHvnd/s1099/week17watch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="938" data-original-width="1099" height="546" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQKDrkImsdYQzL8_f0FwjQzs5TJuaXOplCpyD0BiCKx2xQIVETXXKxeTUu8PQGV_j5PV_aJBt1070xzwH5ED5nUfv_6jdiGoFJynUotxUBLMITYmscV29ilyJkay3hHG8SlM9YDplbVCIn_rbHnvtvV2D90-WDRP9PietJt2Mnh6leURu3Q_KLgQmyHvnd/w640-h546/week17watch.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-85665862845233905862024-01-22T19:57:00.000-08:002024-01-22T19:57:39.150-08:002023/24 Week 16 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 16 of the NHL season is here and I have some potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the LA Kings, who play on all 4 light
nights and have some potentially porous opponents on their slate. Vegas did
finish slightly ahead in terms of opponent total leakage, but only play on 2
light nights. Columbus and Chicago each play 4 games against all the same
opponents. We also have a few 3-game teams with desirable schedules, so scroll
down to see my strength of schedule and watch list graphics with stats last 30
days and player’s upcoming schedules to help you maximize your moves.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Charlie Coyle</b>, Bos, (37% Yahoo ownership): The Boston Bruins
have the 5th best schedule by total opponent leakage (my new slang for goal
allowing), playing 2 of 4 on light nights, and Charlie Coyle now finds himself
centering Pastrnak and Marchand on the top line and top power play. In his last
14 GP, Coyle has scored 13 PTS (2 on the PP) with 33 shots and 12 hits;
providing quality output across multiple stat categories. Not sure how long
that deployment will last, but it’s tremendous in the meantime. If you don’t
have room for a center, <b>Jake DeBrusk</b> is eligible at both wings, but only
plays 2nd line and 2nd power play. In his last 14 GP, JD has scored 11 PTS (6
on the PP) with 30 shots, 11 hits, and a +7.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Trevor Moore</b>, LA, (64% Yahoo ownership): The LA Kings have the
best schedule coming up, and Moore is among the top candidates to target. He’s
eligible at both wings, plays line 2, power play 2, scoring 5 PTS with 22 shots
in his last 7 GP. He had been slumping prior to his recent uptick in PTS, so
that ownership % is probably a little too high, unless a majority are playing
category leagues with shots. If Moore isn’t available, his center on line 2, PP
2 is owned in half is many leagues. <b>Phillip Danault</b> has been the
hotter of the two, scoring 8 PTS (2 on the power play) in his last 7 games (but
shoots far less than Moore). Also joining them on that line two is Kevin Fiala,
who is likely the primary driver offensively.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Sam Bennett</b>, Fla, (31% Yahoo ownership): The Florida Panthers
have the 3rd best schedule this week, including 3 on light nights, and Sam
Bennett is playing on the defacto line 1 with Tkachuk as well as the top power
play (we’ll see how that shakes out after Barkov returns). He’s widely available
(he’d be owned in more leagues with wing eligibility) scoring 6 goals and 9 PTS
(3 on the PP) with 33 shots and 19 hits in his last 13 GP. Great peripheral
stats producer for those of you in category leagues, and 3 light nights makes
him easy to start. If you’d rather a winger, <b>Quinton Byfield</b> is a strong
option, playing top line and top power play in LA. Though he’s a little chilly
lately with just 3 PTS (all on the PP) in his last 7 GP.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen</b>, Buf, (37% Yahoo ownership): After
struggling earlier in the schedule, UPL has only given up one goal in his last
3 starts, winning 5 of his last 7 games with a .943 SV%. The Sabres only play 3
games in the week ahead (including a back-to-back), but their opponents are a
combined 4-26 in their last 10 games, so even if you only get 2 starts out of
UPL, they have a high probability of victory. He is outplaying Levi and earning
a greater share of the starts. There were a few contenders for this slot (which
you can see below), but no slam dunks looking at the scheduling. Detroit only
plays 3 games, but <b>Alex Lyon</b> has been carrying a big load for the hot
Wings, winning 6 of his last 8 with a .917 SV%.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Hampus Lindholm</b>, Bos, (54% Yahoo ownership): My final
watchlist only included 1 defender in this ownership range who plays 4 games,
with few enticing options among that demographic, but at the top was Hampus
Lindholm, who has been putting up points in the last month. In his last 14 GP,
Lindholm has 8 PTS (3 on the PP) with 13 shots and 6 hits. Those peripheral
stats may turn off some of the category league crowd, but there’s a plan B. I’ll
probably be parting ways with Thomas Harley as Heiskanen is expected to return
soon, but I’m hanging on to <b>Brock Faber</b>. Minnesota only plays 3 games,
but in his last 14 GP, Faber has recorded 8 PTS (4 on the PP) with 33 shots and
15 hits. Spurgeon is out for the season and Faber owns PP1.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Jake DeBrusk, Alex Lyon, Brock Faber, Quinton
Byfield, Phillip Danault<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin, Jonathan Drouin, Thomas Harley,
Marc-Andre Fleury<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 26%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):</span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br />
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">1) <b>Chandler Stephenson</b>, Veg, (21% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned in
the intro, Vegas has the best schedule for total (not average) opponent
leakage, while injuries to Eichel and Karlsson led to a line one promotion for
Chandler Stephenson, playing with Mark Stone. He was also promoted to the top
unit power play, scoring 5 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 6 GP, with a +5.
Granted, Stephenson was ice-cold before this current promotion, but he was also
productive with Stone in the past. If you can’t fit a center-only option into
your line-up, those injuries in Vegas also led to a line-up promotion for <b>Nicolas
Roy</b> up to line 2 and power play 2, eligible at RW and C. In his last 6 GP,
he has 5 PTS with 15 shots.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Trent Frederic</b>, Bos, (14% Yahoo ownership): This is not the
first plug for Trent Frederic in my weekly waiver reports, as he’s been putting
up quality numbers for an extended period despite only playing 3rd line and no
power play. In his last 14 GP, Freddy (I’m assuming that’s his nickname) scored
10 PTS (did get 1 on the PP) with 24 shots, 21 hits, and a +8. He’s eligible at
both center and RW, with great peripheral numbers for category leagues. If
you’d rather a top line, top power play option who plays 3 times on light
nights against leaky teams, <b>Jordan Eberle</b> in Seattle is 76% available.
In his last 12 GP, the winger has scored 7 PTS (2 on the PP) with 25 shots.
Wed-Fri-Sun vs Chi-Stl-Cbj is a nice fit.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Dave Rittich</b>, LA, (6% Yahoo ownership): The Los Angeles Kings
play 4 games, all on light nights, and Cam Talbot has been buckling under the
heavy load he’s supporting with an .897 SV% in the last 30 days, while Big Save
Dave has a .933 SV% in 5 games. He’s available in 94% of leagues and should be
getting called upon more often if he continues outplaying a declining Talbot.
That could make him a valuable deep league asset down the road if LA ever gets
good again and he’s getting more frequent usage (honestly, they should trade
for Juuse Saros). If you’d rather grab a back-up from a better team, Florida
plays 4 and <b>Anthony Stolarz</b> (.907 SV% last 30 days) should get the
Predators and Islanders (who aren’t exactly pushovers).<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Matt Roy</b>, LA, (19% Yahoo ownership): We have already discussed
the LA Kings wonderful schedule, which adds value to Matt Roy, who has been
putting up outstanding hit and shot totals for LA. In his last 14 GP, Roy has 6
PTS (none on the power play) with 34 shots and 24 hits. That would be a good
shot total for a forward. The points aren’t exciting and he’s not on the power
play, so there are better options in points-only formats. If you’d rather have
a defender on a top unit power play, the Blue Jackets play 4 and <b>Adam
Boqvist</b> has 4 PTS (3 on the PP) in 4 games since returning from injury.
He’s averaging 21:34 of ice time (he’s leading the team in PP ice after 2
periods tonight), but has nearly as many PTS as hits and shots, which hurts in
category leagues.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Cole Sillinger</b>, Cbj, (2% Yahoo ownership): Sure, the
Columbus Blue Jackets have the toughest 4-game schedule this week (same as
Chicago but 1 less light night), but if your league counts shots and hits, you
should still find usefulness for Cole Sillinger. Only 6 PTS in his last 11 GP
doesn’t jump off the screen, but the 29 shots and 18 hits certainly do. They
currently have him centering line one with Johnny Gaudreau (which I’ll admit is
less exciting than it used to be), but is not listed on the power play (update:
Cole Sillinger does have a goal tonight vs New Jersey). His linemate <b>Yegor
Chinakhov</b> is listed on that top power play, but has also posted a
pedestrian 4 PTS in his last 11 GP. At least he’s another active shooter,
firing 28 shots in those 11 games. </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Nicolas Roy, Jordan Eberle,</span><span style="color: black; mso-color-alt: windowtext;"> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Yegor
Chinakhov, Anthony Stolarz, Adam Boqvist<br />
<b> <br />
Last Week</b>: Lukas Dostal, Erik Haula, Jake McCabe, <s>Tyler Bertuzzi</s>
(rescinded the next day), Juraj Slafkovsky </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqw_6Wwddh9c7W6a046q5Q8GFjy76YRIz-v0fogQng-RNmjs6UGYCPfdmF_uSWo363TLfxgek0nbDFoCH-4i3elgmEz9-Pw-tnxq24q4qdL7UAkJeyM6NgGcUA5ShNDD6l8EGzacYpFKoZAIfbJV-UspGiUPI7Qj9gMojBfn0oFH_PCKXtGVGTgq-cxblR/s737/week16sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqw_6Wwddh9c7W6a046q5Q8GFjy76YRIz-v0fogQng-RNmjs6UGYCPfdmF_uSWo363TLfxgek0nbDFoCH-4i3elgmEz9-Pw-tnxq24q4qdL7UAkJeyM6NgGcUA5ShNDD6l8EGzacYpFKoZAIfbJV-UspGiUPI7Qj9gMojBfn0oFH_PCKXtGVGTgq-cxblR/w311-h400/week16sched.png" width="311" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXRakQrfk99tq-oFbum10nzPOExsI4IOCRcUSfh1xoEIVKFzlKtQQ6ZLYFlfq5IDe6Xl4WEOSrqqrpObn5xKKhMNK5aGCMo5JLLK0zuaJQxZ9AS4mkqnB5ISuwlxbbFdU2eyij3e1vEoAC5u6zRdLfQt5pLGklaf4g8IsJl1v5fY-syPDUbfNJc9VuWngS/s1132/Week16watchlist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="978" data-original-width="1132" height="553" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXRakQrfk99tq-oFbum10nzPOExsI4IOCRcUSfh1xoEIVKFzlKtQQ6ZLYFlfq5IDe6Xl4WEOSrqqrpObn5xKKhMNK5aGCMo5JLLK0zuaJQxZ9AS4mkqnB5ISuwlxbbFdU2eyij3e1vEoAC5u6zRdLfQt5pLGklaf4g8IsJl1v5fY-syPDUbfNJc9VuWngS/w640-h553/Week16watchlist.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-2274008933333530772024-01-22T19:53:00.000-08:002024-01-22T19:53:32.463-08:002023/24 Week 15 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week fifteen of the NHL season has been logged into
the history books, as the second half is fully underway, along with my
“Tournament of Models”. It just so happens that 15 are competing for the
distinction of being proclaimed my top model which began on week 15. That was
purely coincidental. My updated “model explainer” will be coming out soon,
because some of the new team members have not received a formal introduction or
explanation. Being busy preparing my second quarterly report has contributed to
the delay, and that should be ready to go in the next few days as well.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on
my blog.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtjBdCfKaZzhKQoue5dAvHFzEAYGBzYwsj3XuCLTScvuIBx7OJMr2IyBD1S4oOJ7UKXDbstgIVWTF5am_lCA-N_DfcC2NHGegHYxeYiyMGTkkCDeug1NkJcZzyZpBg9lE-j1VA8FSrrwBXh5zDdV7EksBLK8lOpZsiPGGD-5XMKFn2fhzKC0qzTcL7RXdV/s382/wk15A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="268" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtjBdCfKaZzhKQoue5dAvHFzEAYGBzYwsj3XuCLTScvuIBx7OJMr2IyBD1S4oOJ7UKXDbstgIVWTF5am_lCA-N_DfcC2NHGegHYxeYiyMGTkkCDeug1NkJcZzyZpBg9lE-j1VA8FSrrwBXh5zDdV7EksBLK8lOpZsiPGGD-5XMKFn2fhzKC0qzTcL7RXdV/s320/wk15A.png" width="225" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The picks shared in my preview last week were bad, but
there was a series of improbable events leading to that loss, Columbus (+180)
beating Vancouver, Montreal (+185) beating Colorado, and Anaheim (+280) beating
Florida. The probability of all 3 of those upsets happening was 3% (that would
have been roughly +3200 on a parlay). It’s plausible that extraordinary
unluckiness was me releasing a full slate of betting picks on Martin Luther
King’s birthday. The same damned thing happened when I posted a big picks piece
on Remembrance Day. Was MLK against gambling?<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The good news is, if the ghost of MLK did put a jinx
on my Monday picks, it expired by Tuesday, because my full slate of Tuesday
picks went 11-5. My Monday over/under picks did go 6-3, so maybe the ghost of
Dr. King is only opposed to moneylines and pucklines, but likes betting totals.
He must have loved unders too, because those were the primary driver of my own
early success, sustaining through the weekend. Unders went 28-22-3 this week as
scoring is slowing league-wide. I’m working on my 2nd Quarter Report (coming
soon) where I was awful when disagreeing with my primary algorithm, but not
this week.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Saturday over/under picks were outstanding aside
from striking out hard on under 6.5 on Vancouver-Toronto. What differentiated
me from my primary was the picks betting double (when the total is at least
0.75 goals above or below the input variable (avg goals last 8 games minus max
and min)) also performing well when disagreeing entirely, which wasn’t the case
later in the second quarter. Maybe the biggest news was the outstanding success
of Full Season Average Goals, which was awful for most of Q2 but warmed up the
last couple weeks, earning a reinstatement onto the Over Under Council (two had
earned a demotion).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It would be a nice story if Full Season Avg sustained
success, which would surely help novice bettors a great deal. That’s got to be
the most common method for casuals, look at the standings, add GF + GA divide
by GP. The latest additions to my advisory team may deserve some of the credit
for my awesome week. Goalies Last 30 Days was born a while ago but was a late
addition to the leaderboard in my tracking, so I didn’t even notice that it was
substantially outperforming my “Betting Goalies” over/under model until recently.
It’s worth noting; when Prime, Max Profit, & GL30 all bet the same way,
they are 89-59-4. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $1,988.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Edmonton Oilers</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$906<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Edmonton Oilers went undefeated this week and I
went undefeated on my Oilers picks, pulling them out of last place in my
profitability rankings. My full season loss when betting them to win was reduced
to -$1,100. Granted it could have been a little better, as my wagers were all moneyline
when all their pucklines covered, though that wasn’t the case one week earlier,
which is why my guard went up. Their line prices are getting painfully
expensive, so I’m very interested to see how my value-based Hedge Fund handles
them second half (last 30 days they’re down big betting Oilers to lose).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Ottawa Senators might be spiraling towards a trade
deadline talent dump and a shot at Celebrini in the draft lottery, but that
doesn’t seem to be hurting my performance betting their games. What will hurt
is if they suddenly spark a heater when I’m aggressively betting them to lose (like
their come from behind win against Philly). Right now, road games are the safe
space, while they are frisky on home ice. The biggest issue for them is the
goaltending, and maybe if Jacques Martin can implement a strong defensive
system we’ll see the team’s profile change second half.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Anaheim Ducks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$814<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Anaheim Ducks were dead last in my profit ranks
this week, starting with their improbable 3rd period comeback against the
previously hot Florida Panthers. The worse news is that victory inspired me to place
small bets on Ducks to win/cover the next 3 games which they all lost by at
least 2 goals. Turns out that Florida magic was random and temporary, though
they were leading the Rangers in the 3rd period before giving up 4 unanswered
goals. They beat Florida then lost to Washington and San Jose, so I’m hoping
they’re back to comfortably bad, as you can read about in my picks below.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not far behind the Ducks was the Carolina Hurricanes,
with all the damage inflicted in their home losses to Minnesota and Los
Angeles. The Kings were on a long losing streak and Minnesota is generally
worse on the road, so both picks felt smart at the time, but evidently not
having their best goalie Pyotr Kochetkov is diminishing their effectiveness.
Raanta played well in his first few games replacing Koch, but struggled in the
last 3. In retrospect betting under in all 3 games was a mistake as their overs
went 2-1. At least now we know the good version of him was just temporary.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 15 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcv9_NG1vEhLWzB-FlY0mgbHOIRC0MCw6yBlzAgvFx1wQG77t7bU5JtWV0zyLh9HBSHNLSKgOs7Z6qL_7z8qcYu24DYY_dH9bNr4vkxREfRApDwZYZ-Fg5_CPzVAig-MqJFJOq9NQ1m5xub1aTfOYIBsYNocPf1k1F07afhsaqicvNl3e_r5HRIwSGRlir/s558/week15B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcv9_NG1vEhLWzB-FlY0mgbHOIRC0MCw6yBlzAgvFx1wQG77t7bU5JtWV0zyLh9HBSHNLSKgOs7Z6qL_7z8qcYu24DYY_dH9bNr4vkxREfRApDwZYZ-Fg5_CPzVAig-MqJFJOq9NQ1m5xub1aTfOYIBsYNocPf1k1F07afhsaqicvNl3e_r5HRIwSGRlir/w400-h231/week15B.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />The big winners this week were favorites -1.5 goals, home
ML, and unders. You can see those unders were the biggest driver behind my
winning week (I was a net loser on ML and PL). This was just a great week in
general for favorites, evidenced by my Fave Lover model finishing first place
and taking the early lead in my Tournament of Models. It’s no coincidence then
that Dog Lover was among the worst models, because there was no good way to put
lipstick on that pig. There are some weeks were they both profit, so it’s not
impossible, but they often bet opposite sides of the same game. Dog Lover
abstains when both teams are -110 ML. You need to be a legit dog.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsvWm0VratO1BymV_xl-8MKVv5nDBX0wcue6QOUPrt2ASjUBVgA0N25fEq0gx8A8JJ4pdPMcouFf7VWPu8v2rydruiibJuzo1tzJZCnVa5mITHcWWAUKf_5iVSC8jRBLUIA8fGN-856i_V2xZ90dGSGAelkLS07ikWPh01Cnl1Xo5RoKUsE-RXBJnvf6tS/s660/wk15C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsvWm0VratO1BymV_xl-8MKVv5nDBX0wcue6QOUPrt2ASjUBVgA0N25fEq0gx8A8JJ4pdPMcouFf7VWPu8v2rydruiibJuzo1tzJZCnVa5mITHcWWAUKf_5iVSC8jRBLUIA8fGN-856i_V2xZ90dGSGAelkLS07ikWPh01Cnl1Xo5RoKUsE-RXBJnvf6tS/w383-h400/wk15C.png" width="383" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Florida Panthers endured some hardship, going 0-3
this week, the last two without Aleksander Barkov (who was also sorely missed
by one of my fantasy teams that was already without Nichushkin, Kane,
Heiskanen, and Adin Hill). This team has generally been a stay away for me when
missing Barkov, but I picked them at home against Minnesota because the Wild
were on a back-to-back and are worse on the road (Minnesota went 3-1 and were
the best team to bet overall). Florida overs going 2-1 was also a net loser for
me. Those unders had been on fire. Barkov is a Selke nominee. Makes sense. Vegas
winning their last 3 in a row with all those injuries proved costly, so maybe a
brake pump is warranted.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij9GmbP6NaZSaSOntk0pBQPeznMl3V9mAiTHB3QILlxBffdBccp-JRE8rV2A_MgnJ7Ww0W-og3L3CIuwkYgqbRZwZ9HfEns1UpJ1SRGs8LNLsqStgUC5Zs84dh7mW0Sp6cnF0V9IB0S6MTvhc4IYiGXwPbmqXv56nbCGhYCdhJCTtrKJx4mJ_WOHg5XxiH/s591/wk15D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEij9GmbP6NaZSaSOntk0pBQPeznMl3V9mAiTHB3QILlxBffdBccp-JRE8rV2A_MgnJ7Ww0W-og3L3CIuwkYgqbRZwZ9HfEns1UpJ1SRGs8LNLsqStgUC5Zs84dh7mW0Sp6cnF0V9IB0S6MTvhc4IYiGXwPbmqXv56nbCGhYCdhJCTtrKJx4mJ_WOHg5XxiH/w400-h290/wk15D.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week. Colorado moved into first place for the first time this season, but
the Sharks haven’t really moved since the first quarter (posting a small loss
in Q2).<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKZV3hESfND1myfAsvlNZ-5d-1CzSdVhGHIFd0mJRXURy2KnOTiDrltPLCSO8RjvxtDLFH9dKEIMvLxE0RTRZZb1MNHUoXP_vc3M4x78kWY4Qy4zg-1WDn7QhqpA1YC53Lcli56CcvVvmFA-DRmdhWq6rphbg9wk1oSsnQAOjfOWKBPXjqLvK4XMDBq54j/s724/wk15PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="584" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKZV3hESfND1myfAsvlNZ-5d-1CzSdVhGHIFd0mJRXURy2KnOTiDrltPLCSO8RjvxtDLFH9dKEIMvLxE0RTRZZb1MNHUoXP_vc3M4x78kWY4Qy4zg-1WDn7QhqpA1YC53Lcli56CcvVvmFA-DRmdhWq6rphbg9wk1oSsnQAOjfOWKBPXjqLvK4XMDBq54j/w323-h400/wk15PR.png" width="323" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div>
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the history books and with it we say goodbye to the first half of 2023/24.
First, I’d like to wish Martin Luther King a happy birthday. Good job by you. I’m
already 4,000 words into my Q2 Report which should be ready in 7-10 days. The
beginning of the second half also marks day one of my “Tournament of Models”
which will continue until the final day of the regular season. There will be an
entirely new tournament kicking off in the playoffs and a few new post-season
specific models will be unveiled in the spring. Ziggy the “zig zag” model who
always bets the loser of the previous game will be the first off the factory
floor.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on
my blog.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7A622aOnpx434rHYLc9FtJTNPvq5THwNXuFrdPqfXdLhhsgbjeTTWQU9X-zOAqH8OIF5ldApO_rtPgoI3v6oJmSKU4l8ZsggHgaNtxPl7KYAGerfgB6icR2Mm12WENyHdYPJiDYMZSVUnFW2woTU09cjWZyumD5YN-TZN3dl3RKrq1pazd1iwktuwbEIh/s382/wk14A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="268" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7A622aOnpx434rHYLc9FtJTNPvq5THwNXuFrdPqfXdLhhsgbjeTTWQU9X-zOAqH8OIF5ldApO_rtPgoI3v6oJmSKU4l8ZsggHgaNtxPl7KYAGerfgB6icR2Mm12WENyHdYPJiDYMZSVUnFW2woTU09cjWZyumD5YN-TZN3dl3RKrq1pazd1iwktuwbEIh/s320/wk14A.png" width="225" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was not a good week for me, doing a little
regressing back to the mean after a strong few weeks, but there were a few
specific teams who inflicted a disproportionate amount of damage. Nearly half
of my total loss came from Chicago covering +1.5 against Edmonton and Winnipeg,
as I dared venture into max bet -1.5 goal territory after abstaining for most
of December because the Hawks best player is out of the line-up. I’ve been so
busy preparing all these models for the start of Q3 that perhaps I’ve been overlooking
my picks. The only models I’m allowing myself to build between now and the end
of the regular season are playoff models.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Over/under was also a problem for me this week, which
is very confusing considering I’m following either my primary (aka Prime) or
Max Profit every game and both of those turned a profit this week. The answer
is chronological, Prime started poorly, Maximus excelled early, and by the time
I flipped my picks, that reversed. Shit happens. It does bother me a little
that my performance for the quarter is significantly worse than both the
algorithms I’m most often using to decide my own selection. My perception of
value might be flawed. Perhaps I need a “shorting value” over/under model? I’ll
dig a little deeper into my mistakes during the all-star break.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">With all the renovations and model work I’ve been
doing lately to prepare for this tournament, I’ve been posting model weekly
results, but not for the full quarter. Some models received upgrades; some were
deleted entirely. But with my new self-imposed ban on model construction, my
focus can get back to my current advisory team and figuring out all their
strengths and weaknesses. There are some new kids on the block that were
already discussed last week, but still have not been added to my “Model
Explainer” reference page. The latest additions are being called my “Hedge Fund”
because they actually bet against the value they were designed to find.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Two hedge fund members are particularly confusing to
me, the two goalie-based versions that were introduced in past previews,
Goalies vs Teams and Goalies Last 30 Days. Both were so terrible that I decided
to run their data through a 230-game sample to see if betting the opposite
yielded positive results, and they did. What’s the problem? Okay, if Juuse
Saros is 0-6 against the Edmonton Oilers in my sample (that’s a guess), the
original model would make a big bet on Edmonton. It defies logic why it would
be profitable to bet on goalies who are bad against that opponent, or betting a
goalie who owns an opponent to lose. It makes no sense.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The goalie hedge funds are official entries in the
tournament, so we’ll see if this extends into a larger sample. The original
models input data is still in my Game Summary worksheet, so they could compete
too, but it’s clutter. The final model to join the team is being called my
“Grand Aggregator” that adds up the total amount of money that all the models
have on each outcome and bets the largest. It does not have an upper limit on
bets, but will mostly be under $500. There’s a simple formula that uses the
total profit to approximate the bet size. It wouldn’t be hard to retroactively
apply these composite bets going back earlier in the season, but we’ll get to
it eventually.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I considered modifying the bet selection algorithms
for Tailing History and Betting Venues, but decided to leave them in their
current form (each already received upgrades a few weeks ago). “Tails” did end
up having a good week because of the success of road teams, but it was a bad
quarter. The optimal modifications would have been limiting bet sizes to
minimize loss, but the whole point of Tails is to be my canary in the coal mine
for historical replicability. If the model loses $10,000 in January but then
gets hot in February, I’d like to know that history is repeating again. But
that doesn’t mean you need to see what all the picks are ahead of time. Maybe
it’s better if you don’t, but the model serves a purpose. Betting Venues too.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My “Dog Lover” and “Fave Lover” concepts were revived
to simply use the same data as Max Profit, adding up the profit from all the
models on VML, V+1.5, V-1.5, HML, H+1.5, H-1.5 in the last 30 days involving
these teams. They don’t bet on teams with a back-to-back disadvantage and
abstain when the models are collectively losing money on the dog or favorite.
What’s interesting after running these two newbies through the last week worth
of games, they both turned a profit despite often making conflicting picks.
These will be handy if I’m leaning more on Max Profit, because Max may lay $500
on the favorite when the Dog Lover has $500 on the opposite side.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">One more introduction is required to a model I’m just
calling “Weighted Wins”, which required me to create an entirely new statistic
for permanent tracking that could have other applications. The stat is easy to explain
on a conceptual level, if you beat Colorado, that’s 1.5 wins. If you lose to
Colorado, that’s 0.5 losses. Beat San Jose, it’s 0.5 wins, lose to San Jose,
and it is 1.5 losses. We then compute a weighted win percentage for each team
and compare it to the implied probability of the betting line. This is another
model that “bets against value”, because it was profitable to do so. It was fit
to second half data from the previous 2 seasons, ignoring 2021, producing an 8%
profit.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Weighted Wins is the most sophisticated model in my
“hedge fund”, but we’ll soon find out if that’s a good thing. Oh yeah, there’s
one more model I’m just calling “Shorting Goalies” right now, which is another
hedge fund that bets against line value. I’ll try to explain that one later
(the picks aren’t shared below).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Colorado Avalanche</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$568<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Colorado Avalanche went 3-0 this week, and I went
3-0 picking their wins and losses, 2-1 on their over/under (taking the over in
all 3 games). That top unit is a beast, and I’m riding this wicked MacKinnon
heater (in my <a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/24-sports-predictions-for-2024">24
sports predictions for 2024</a>, I had Nate winning the Hart and Art Ross). They
went down 3-0 to Toronto on Saturday and I Tweeted that Avs are +650 on the
live line and no lead is safe against this team. But that Tweet lacked
conviction because I’ve watched enough of their games to know they also lose some
of these 7-4. Just a note to check the live line when Colorado falls down by a
few goals, because they can fight back better than anyone.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second best team of the week was the Arizona
Coyotes, but that was mostly a product of accurately picking their over unders,
not accurately picking their wins and losses. It does feel like the magic of
the Mullett is starting to wear off, in part because they’ve been losing more
on home ice, but also because the line price can be prohibitive. I’ll be very
interested to see how my hedge funds are performing on Arizona at home. There’s
some more work to do before all the models are plugged into my team-by-team and
category-by-category pages, but it’s coming soon.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Chicago Blackhawks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$711<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As previously mentioned, the Chicago Blackhawks held
the proverbial murder weapon after doing an autopsy of my mangled mess of a
week. Zach Hyman had multiple opportunities to score on the empty net and
personally let me down, despite actually scoring the goal that put them ahead 2
goals before that was called back after a half hour offside review. There
should be a time clock on reviews. If you can’t see obvious evidence to
overturn the ruling in 30 seconds, the goal stands. Fortunately, I did hit the
Stars ML on Saturday to win a little of that money back.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Not far behind Chicago in my weekly loser rankings was
the New York Islanders, which I’ve lamented in some of my recent picks pieces
that when I’m sharing my picks on Islanders games, I tend to feel stupid
afterwards, whether picking them to win or lose. I’m strongly considering
abstaining from sharing Islander picks until they become a little more
predictable. One of the problems is that Semyon Varlamov is injured, and Ilya
Sorokin has a .901 SV% in the last 30 days. You can get awesome Sorokin any
given game, but he can get lit up too. It’s better to stay away from goalies
like that, though my mandate is betting every single game, so I’ll need to
figure this out.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 14 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></b></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwIUswaCZUtqRREMFfcKyC2EHwhoo1W4C2LK2jgTQ5spsrC5YT0mfx6q8Qclv2P2za5SLbgrj4yEEEymhwQtB95KFIAprDH1pmntbUdSUEGxQohnT72qZqBcWilqqRI5Sneoxd1KK9M7O_BuLn6goQGYGBLpXXK2MUkC0g0WuQMC7pL-m5ncKpzSR0So2/s558/wk14B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWwIUswaCZUtqRREMFfcKyC2EHwhoo1W4C2LK2jgTQ5spsrC5YT0mfx6q8Qclv2P2za5SLbgrj4yEEEymhwQtB95KFIAprDH1pmntbUdSUEGxQohnT72qZqBcWilqqRI5Sneoxd1KK9M7O_BuLn6goQGYGBLpXXK2MUkC0g0WuQMC7pL-m5ncKpzSR0So2/w400-h231/wk14B.png" width="400" /></a></div> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There weren’t many strong categories for me this week,
failing to adequately pounce on the surge in road teams despite being prepared for
this to happen (see my preview from 8 days ago). Dogs +1.5, -1.5, visitors +1.5
and -1.5 all cracked the overall leaderboard this week, while visitors -1.5
goals were my second worst category (there is big overlap in my visitors -1.5
and faves -1.5 number). Aside from taking Buffalo -1.5 vs San Jose today, my
failure at faves -1.5 this week has inspired a brake pump on my burgeoning enthusiasm.
I just want the Sharks and Hawks to comfortably suck. They play tomorrow, more
on that below.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRdcH_ik41AL8cpqnt3MIqdTy8eT5mFMwIvwgIV4WX1NdJDCq75r71FXXbhb4CDj4diaTIm9knE9Js1wyS-RTdos_uXW9lHjSvFXPSWcUoHle_GMHooAmkwpaEizxfT_H25nZY0rF9yAQrZ6empS1I-0OEKUORShp1kZZ7CkDprJRD6gulhoY066H5_gMH/s660/wk14C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRdcH_ik41AL8cpqnt3MIqdTy8eT5mFMwIvwgIV4WX1NdJDCq75r71FXXbhb4CDj4diaTIm9knE9Js1wyS-RTdos_uXW9lHjSvFXPSWcUoHle_GMHooAmkwpaEizxfT_H25nZY0rF9yAQrZ6empS1I-0OEKUORShp1kZZ7CkDprJRD6gulhoY066H5_gMH/w383-h400/wk14C.png" width="383" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Winnipeg Jets bandwagon hit a bump in the road,
losing to Philadelphia and failing to cover -1.5 goals vs Chicago. It does
raise my eyebrow that the Oilers, Rangers, and Panthers are all on my worst
teams to bet list this week, as these are 3 of the league’s best teams. Florida
losing to New Jersey without Hughes cost me $300, while New York losing to St.
Louis and Washington cost me $400. Those were all defensible picks and I’m
assuming were popular recommendations among the punditry community. I know Matt
Murley over at Chiclets Game Notes had Winnipeg -2.5 goals against Chicago, and
had Edmonton -1.5 goals against those same Blackhawks. I was not alone.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoSjJJscixQnRWQqrJaDqTWz4RjESNM_i7OCmq10jsotWiwE5dA3L3WIkTsXAWzlGsPctLUINcHw1krOwzamG8jGK5NDVLFxPka9bJQ9rUsYKkfHfS3m1dlD77q8X-r0jHPIbvxcfjBO0253prcIYCh108gp_EAbcnozuk3MW1gEutxedIJ7VIoHLaS8L/s591/wk14D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGoSjJJscixQnRWQqrJaDqTWz4RjESNM_i7OCmq10jsotWiwE5dA3L3WIkTsXAWzlGsPctLUINcHw1krOwzamG8jGK5NDVLFxPka9bJQ9rUsYKkfHfS3m1dlD77q8X-r0jHPIbvxcfjBO0253prcIYCh108gp_EAbcnozuk3MW1gEutxedIJ7VIoHLaS8L/w400-h290/wk14D.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">One of the reasons for my over/under struggle this
week is because under 6 and over 6.5 were better than the standard over 6 and
under 6.5 combo that Tailing History has mostly been riding this season. Unders
went 10-8 when the total was 6, and overs went 15-14 when the total was 6.5. Pushing
in the opposite direction was problematic.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: 21.3333px;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9JHrX2sHogRnQTv0BVqUGtrJ8A8wph1V8XPRd0s4UpH5P8vvlXg6HRow0NavoZ1op2MZdtwZ2rAELpLJFHaLbuRrL_KZTWLDFbempQYKamk0Bft4xqFQWO6AGBOXVXx6wDLQu79UH9sMwiuVl3zRK3301RxcXhIAPl3hkYiHOs8EQncw6kZetzoWCwufP/s724/wk14PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="584" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9JHrX2sHogRnQTv0BVqUGtrJ8A8wph1V8XPRd0s4UpH5P8vvlXg6HRow0NavoZ1op2MZdtwZ2rAELpLJFHaLbuRrL_KZTWLDFbempQYKamk0Bft4xqFQWO6AGBOXVXx6wDLQu79UH9sMwiuVl3zRK3301RxcXhIAPl3hkYiHOs8EQncw6kZetzoWCwufP/s16000/wk14PR.png" /></a></div><br /> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Granted that page needs to be updated in the next few days, and some
of the models have been changed since the last update. I’m not posting my
standard model by category graphic for this week (amid ongoing renovations),
but you’ll be getting full model Q2 results category-by-category and
team-by-team soon.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii8WNmP8sGnVns-1G4vEavwPMB-JJ6HrvAAPi30ihDj6TN0Yr_RVDP489nVkSyawgRA-DF4MoW76LUHdzg9-fjWJd1LL39THhhfLEz0ddMzL40ctR5U-bZGwvw19hldEq7epIFRCAuSXkGlAdGUZB9e_xNNT3iR_Ho_DVze9r3FnshShnw5F-olWadNWOv/s353/wk14E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="353" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEii8WNmP8sGnVns-1G4vEavwPMB-JJ6HrvAAPi30ihDj6TN0Yr_RVDP489nVkSyawgRA-DF4MoW76LUHdzg9-fjWJd1LL39THhhfLEz0ddMzL40ctR5U-bZGwvw19hldEq7epIFRCAuSXkGlAdGUZB9e_xNNT3iR_Ho_DVze9r3FnshShnw5F-olWadNWOv/s320/wk14E.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Above is my entire team of 15 over/under algorithms,
which were surprisingly led by Full Season Avg this week. That one was
relegated to the bench last month for poor performance, but seems to be trying
to win back a seat on my advisory team (aka the Over Under Council). Also Betting
Goalies has been a flawed formula and has been supplanted by Goalies Last 30
Days as my best goalie-based formula. Shorting Goalies is another one created
recently, but it’s a little redundant and will often bet the same outcome as
GL30. I’m also considering some betting against line value models (I could just
flip Prime Line Value, which collapsed after a strong start (possibly because
line “value” is bad)).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Below are our picks for tomorrow. Keep in mind that
the “Return” number hasn’t been created yet for Weighted Wins and the Grand
Aggregator. Also be aware that I’m in the early stages of a cold streak, and
did not do well on my picks this afternoon (thanks to Florida and Vancouver
choking 3rd period leads). Not how I wanted to start the first quarter, but now
that my model building is complete and my focus can shift back to picks, I’m
hoping another hot streak is brewing, just wai<br />ting to emerge from the ashes.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">SEA @ NYR</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ6lgDkzmaJvxdHL_SQjrr1XI3PwdET0tj84ZCYw29eSNOXNjgaZFK5EqNOffWPUoNLzP8UdSjI04Bk_9RbD-OnC7itOB3G_4fVvRJ09OW9eoxIftLKNCwrTQ9Zw9h_f3SXNENomzY8JeILzbs2rYUjAEcfbIgMRdJThLDVlWIXLiUaR0Zp2HtRRc1ODQn/s516/G1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZ6lgDkzmaJvxdHL_SQjrr1XI3PwdET0tj84ZCYw29eSNOXNjgaZFK5EqNOffWPUoNLzP8UdSjI04Bk_9RbD-OnC7itOB3G_4fVvRJ09OW9eoxIftLKNCwrTQ9Zw9h_f3SXNENomzY8JeILzbs2rYUjAEcfbIgMRdJThLDVlWIXLiUaR0Zp2HtRRc1ODQn/w400-h376/G1.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">At first glance it looks strange that a team winning
9-straight games is a +164 underdog. The reason would seem to be playing the
Penguins today with Joey Daccord in net, meaning this should be Driedger tomorrow
(who was good in his only start this season). I’m taking the Rangers ML because
my models are overwhelmingly going ML at -198 (the Grand Aggregator has a big
bet on HML). Max Profit is the only one taking the Seattle ML, because he doesn’t
care about back-to-backs (I should actually check how he’s doing on those
games, because not caring could be detrimental). Dog Lover uses the same data,
but sits out back-to-backs. It’s worth noting that my “Fave Lover” is sitting
this one out too because my models are collectively losing money on each of
HML, H+1.5, and H-1.5 with these teams last 30 days. That should probably be a
warning that this Rangers bet is not safe. Interestingly, Betting Venues and
Expected Goals L30 haven’t laid a penny on any HML on Ranger home games or
Seattle road games the last 30 days. The Over/Under Council (aka the OUC) is
voting 7-2 on under 6 goals, which is my pick as well.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">COL @ OTT</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRS7tcJhlNJ7IuzIn9armYFMT6d66BQJlmiPfuARsvCOesyXi8dbqnrJlqPNI3scSm5d05L60mo1lq0apP-GKIep6k4qmHWYS0yiD29AjnIHuSGkyAZbn3-bgcX-atOmej4JbQrG4ke1vucl1MNaJpS-1r_ZGn-iQgcgaVSm-i9rfMpiI3yc5ojIT8QOi/s516/G2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnRS7tcJhlNJ7IuzIn9armYFMT6d66BQJlmiPfuARsvCOesyXi8dbqnrJlqPNI3scSm5d05L60mo1lq0apP-GKIep6k4qmHWYS0yiD29AjnIHuSGkyAZbn3-bgcX-atOmej4JbQrG4ke1vucl1MNaJpS-1r_ZGn-iQgcgaVSm-i9rfMpiI3yc5ojIT8QOi/w400-h376/G2.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My eyebrow raised upon seeing Colorado only favored
-135 against Ottawa, but they have Georgiev playing today, so this should be
Ivan Prosvetov in goal (.757 SV% last 30 days). Avs will be on a back-to-back,
but Anton Forsberg is injured and Joonas Korpisalo has not exceeded an .890 SV%
in his last 6 games. Or this could be Mads Sogaard (.889 SV% in 19 games last
season) who has not started in the NHL this season. My models are overwhelmingly
on Ottawa because of the back-to-back, but I’m not going to overthink this and
just continue riding the Avalanche. Avs 8-2 last 10, Sens 4-6. My favorite bet
is over 6.5 goals (Betting Goalies is expecting 9.1 goals, while Goalies Last
30 Days is more conservative at 7.6). The line is at -135, so this could move
to 7 after goalies are confirmed. I’d probably still bet over 7, but with less
enthusiasm.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">ANA @ WSH</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsekjhyw-RT03JsMP7YpoGry_A0IQuJQ38SYwGbG9yZQTiehDKzGD_CvzqYENm-uJkM22vjEVG9Qj78_Iydlam2EuSIvnN9R3RRQ8-UB_X-G6SJXmNjBV-ZGhdm2tQLOl2vI7-ZiEoTPPr7Yvn3h9m28z4SzOn5CSPPGCQqd0DuU3UE-gqHpdKd03GNQMk/s516/G3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsekjhyw-RT03JsMP7YpoGry_A0IQuJQ38SYwGbG9yZQTiehDKzGD_CvzqYENm-uJkM22vjEVG9Qj78_Iydlam2EuSIvnN9R3RRQ8-UB_X-G6SJXmNjBV-ZGhdm2tQLOl2vI7-ZiEoTPPr7Yvn3h9m28z4SzOn5CSPPGCQqd0DuU3UE-gqHpdKd03GNQMk/w400-h376/G3.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Washington Capitals have won 3 of their last 10 games,
Anaheim 3 of 10 (they just beat Florida in OT). That makes me uncomfortable
betting Washington at -205 despite Anaheim being on short rest. Alex Ovechkin
is currently day-to-day with an injury, so I’m going to put a minimum bet on
Ducks +1.5 goals at -142 and move on. I’m also taking under 6 goals, which has
8-1 support from the OUC but hasn’t been a profitable wager with these teams in
the last 30 days.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">NYI @ WPG</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOtgIvPVR5KTZdcRGcWgJzb5BJNnuisG6gu9TQFsbvfcoPQPumgSMYMvcQ_d_89mPK_tlql4TPs5q4dMccWNVLnIpjbKuOzS8AmU1yqVpzBiDiEjKILYXOpPZI0g1M2CT8jZaZBaOpYdzlqbVsRDDLM4HQhsMdlrHMv5ppdoTTxWYo87s1aKt2NV9C6r2E/s516/G4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOtgIvPVR5KTZdcRGcWgJzb5BJNnuisG6gu9TQFsbvfcoPQPumgSMYMvcQ_d_89mPK_tlql4TPs5q4dMccWNVLnIpjbKuOzS8AmU1yqVpzBiDiEjKILYXOpPZI0g1M2CT8jZaZBaOpYdzlqbVsRDDLM4HQhsMdlrHMv5ppdoTTxWYo87s1aKt2NV9C6r2E/w400-h376/G4.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Islander picks have been so bad lately (whether
picking them to win or lose) that you might be better off fading my pick. Jets
are without Mark Scheifele, but Kyle Connor is a full participant at practice
and could be back any game now. Islanders play Minnesota tonight then fly to
Winnipeg. Ilya Sorokin is starting today, Varlamov is on IR, so this could be
Ken Appleby who has never played in the NHL. For that reason, I have to take
the Jets, and over 5.5 goals. That over is at -130, but if it moves to 6, I’d rather
have the under.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">LA @ DAL</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg1g76p95vQKo69u6rhKaY5eY9FPDHKJTDk5-WYLU2WMON8-RJsNbgL2Nz-FGEI9XjUTUn6SorQZDlwr37ADeSO0rozzMVLNG5vzduVHjZmIL9GMTCwpIuPMIpqm2kKgA1e_iZtW7zl-jyE6_pRlzgCRDhiRRy4_IRBC3ziPbKiTZc1MKF-jS1HqDAJNp_/s516/G5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg1g76p95vQKo69u6rhKaY5eY9FPDHKJTDk5-WYLU2WMON8-RJsNbgL2Nz-FGEI9XjUTUn6SorQZDlwr37ADeSO0rozzMVLNG5vzduVHjZmIL9GMTCwpIuPMIpqm2kKgA1e_iZtW7zl-jyE6_pRlzgCRDhiRRy4_IRBC3ziPbKiTZc1MKF-jS1HqDAJNp_/w400-h376/G5.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The LA Kings have lost 8-straight games and are
playing in Carolina today, then flying to Dallas. They’re about to beat the
Carolina Hurricanes, so the losing streak is over, but the travel situation is
putting me on the Dallas ML -148. That being said, my confidence on Dallas
beating LA without Miro Heiskanen is mild at best, so I’m just putting a
minimum bet. I’m also going to tail the 7-2 vote by the OUC on over 6.5 goals.
Rittich is starting today for the Kings, meaning Talbot is tomorrow, and I’m
not sure that helps them tomorrow. Talbot has been leaking lately.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">SJ @ CHI</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeAGF6GeBtDMv8wauRqzprKqgEO-n-U_KdsBkaH5BvGtG-SYSQMoYMIJa_9IvqkwKqegY8x6MP7h5DWnLfSf4Y57jP15J_PE7-fwYqrPMZ81IM6dDd7tPAvLtJ3-yfv3ToGDCtid2vqEOO-P1T6yK_MwCbIwloLx7hCv2BzVohyphenhyphenNPfymF4AmknbpyA31ua/s516/G6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeAGF6GeBtDMv8wauRqzprKqgEO-n-U_KdsBkaH5BvGtG-SYSQMoYMIJa_9IvqkwKqegY8x6MP7h5DWnLfSf4Y57jP15J_PE7-fwYqrPMZ81IM6dDd7tPAvLtJ3-yfv3ToGDCtid2vqEOO-P1T6yK_MwCbIwloLx7hCv2BzVohyphenhyphenNPfymF4AmknbpyA31ua/w400-h376/G6.png" width="400" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Sharks lost 3-0 in Buffalo this afternoon, and are
flying to Chicago as I’m writing this (presumably, I’m not tracking their
current location). The models overwhelmingly like Chicago, and I’m going to put
a minimum bet on their ML -130 despite missing Bedard. My feeling is that a
warm weather team like the Sharks are going be miserable in these winter
conditions, like a “fish out of water” so to speak. I’m also taking under 6
goals.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">TOR @ EDM</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDAZOEunFRRuamU7ItZ5hbP4zt8LIORm_c1ZbsXMgTwwIe9XCI-yfPqFhufL01BswGzgw7SUOvdx2WvOl911kmSYacsoVC2t09KcPfoAVCISxZsPSiyHxAvCGd8-EqTrqu-9h5cuk9tApse_n4p6t6JCofVD0ezGsbd2_anxINEsjUT95JKGy8ZqhdR4Rf/s516/G7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiDAZOEunFRRuamU7ItZ5hbP4zt8LIORm_c1ZbsXMgTwwIe9XCI-yfPqFhufL01BswGzgw7SUOvdx2WvOl911kmSYacsoVC2t09KcPfoAVCISxZsPSiyHxAvCGd8-EqTrqu-9h5cuk9tApse_n4p6t6JCofVD0ezGsbd2_anxINEsjUT95JKGy8ZqhdR4Rf/w400-h376/G7.png" width="400" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Edmonton Oilers are 10-0 in their last 10 games while
Toronto is 4-6. I’m taking the Oilers ML at -148, but some of you already know
that there’s a disclaimer coming. I’m running a large negative balance betting
Edmonton to win this season, and the Leafs historically play their best hockey
when I pick them to lose (though I’m running a positive balance on their losses
this season). Just keep that in mind if you’re going to tail. If you bet
Edmonton and Toronto wins 6-0, you were warned. I’m also taking under 7 goals,
which was a clean sweep by the OUC.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">ARI @ CGY</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgItUwjDyuLIiBX17pmdr-2FO7FhCaSo1NlIuMTbR7godnsfYYSBeQXh31ClcbPKCJY117z-EreSrL5tiKuRMM3NG2ERG0eTiyp9clXly34SDeHcgKHjLKgIZyjKbr6f0KEbGb4xRY_jQYfhzRJIYiXUDpTEpfDW9mSDcAh2B_sjH_ggbkjUyHkDkSK8BNb/s516/G8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgItUwjDyuLIiBX17pmdr-2FO7FhCaSo1NlIuMTbR7godnsfYYSBeQXh31ClcbPKCJY117z-EreSrL5tiKuRMM3NG2ERG0eTiyp9clXly34SDeHcgKHjLKgIZyjKbr6f0KEbGb4xRY_jQYfhzRJIYiXUDpTEpfDW9mSDcAh2B_sjH_ggbkjUyHkDkSK8BNb/s320/G8.png" width="320" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Calgary Flames have won 6 of their last 10 games
(Arizona 5-5) and just swept their recent dads trip. While Calgary is growing
more enticing and soliciting my attention more often, I can’t take them as a
-170 favorite against Arizona. I’m going to put a minimum bet on Arizona ML at
+142 and over 6 goals. Not many thoughts on this game aside from that.</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-27636612733770746172024-01-08T18:21:00.000-08:002024-01-08T18:21:12.835-08:002023/24 Week 14 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 14 of the NHL season is here and I have some potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the Toronto Maple Leafs, facing the
Sharks, Islanders, Avalanche, and Red Wings who have all struggled with goal
prevention in the last 30 days (especially San Jose and Detroit). Minnesota,
Philly, and Dallas also play 4 games, but 3 times on light nights if your
starting line-up is plugged on busy nights. Scroll to the bottom to see my
strength of schedule and watchlist graphics (tailored to be useful to prop
bettors), followed by my December fantasy awards.<br /></span><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Martin Jones</b>, Tor, (55% Yahoo ownership): Martin Jones received
a plug here last week and found his way onto both my fantasy teams. The Leafs
did win my best schedule award this week, but that’s based on opponent goal
prevention. Sadly 3 of those teams have been effective at goal scoring, so
Jones isn’t necessarily a beneficiary of this “opportunity”. That being said,
he’s sporting a .930 SV% in his last 10 games and shutout LA this week stopping
31 shots. He might be on my bench vs Colorado, but otherwise, I’m loving Martin
Jones! Another option is <b>Scott Wedgewood</b>. Jake Oettinger is nearing
return, but Dallas plays Minnesota twice (half their roster is on IR),
Nashville and Chicago. Wedge should start at least 2.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Jake DeBrusk</b>, Bos, (41% Yahoo ownership): The Boston Bruins have
the 2nd best 4-game schedule in terms of opponent goal prevention, but play 3
times on busy nights so you’ll need to make sure there’s room in your starting
line-up to fit DeBrusk. The dual-eligible winger has scored 7 PTS (4 on the PP)
in his last 7 GP with 14 shots and 7 hits playing with Brad Marchand on line 2
and power play 1. The best thing about the Bruins schedule is being front-loaded,
including Mon-Tue. So, you can add him early then stream him out for someone
with a nice weekend slate. His linemate <b>Charlie Coyle</b> is available in
more leagues, but plays PP2 instead of PP1, scoring 7 PTS (2 on the PP) in his
last 7 GP.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Owen Tippett</b>, Phi, (56% Yahoo ownership): If you are playing in
a categories league that counts hits and shots, Owen Tippett might be the best
available forward option ahead of DeBrusk. In his last 13 GP the dual-eligible
winger only has 7 PTS, but amassed 48 shots and 33 hits. So, if you’re in a
points-only league, this is less enticing, aside from Philly’s 3 games on light
nights. So, you can pad your shot and hit totals while the rest of your roster
has the day off. That’s why I’m also interested in <b>Sean Couturier</b>, who
joins Tippett on the Flyers top PP (also centering line 1). Couturier has
scored 9 PTS in his last 13 GP with 34 shots, he just doesn’t hit and is only
eligible at center (but easy to fit into your starting line-up).</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Alexis Lafreniere</b>, NYR, (30% Yahoo ownership): The Rangers have
4 games in the week ahead (2 on light nights) and former first overall draft
pick Alex Lafreniere is playing line 2 (with Panarin) and power play 2 (without
Panarin). The dual-eligible winger has scored 6 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 7
GP, with 20 shots. The Rangers have won 7 of their last 10 games and are
currently first place in the NHL (technically tied with Colorado but with 2
games in hand). Another option with multi-position eligibility and an even
better schedule is <b>Tyler Seguin</b> in Dallas, available in 62% of leagues.
In his last 14 GP, Seguin has scored 11 PTS with 30 shots, playing line 2 and
power play 2 for the Stars (skip ahead for more on that line).</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Hampus Lindholm</b>, Bos, (48% Yahoo ownership): This is a week
where I actually prefer my “deep league” options better than the 25% to 65%
ownership demo. Harley is my top target already added to one of my teams, but
this isn’t a bad time to add Hampus Lindholm if he’s available and you need a
guy. In his last 7 games the defenseman has 4 PTS (one on the power play), but
doesn’t return strong shot or hit numbers despite logging over 24 minutes per
game. He’s on the Bruins second PP unit, which is more than can be said of my
next choice, <b>Travis Sanheim</b>. The Flyers play 4 games, 3 on light nights
and Sanheim has 3 PTS with 10 shots and 7 hits in his last 6 games. Better
peripherals than Lindholm.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Charlie Coyle, Sean Couturier, Tyler Seguin, Travis
Sanheim, Scott Wedgewood,</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> </b></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Gabe Vilardi, Elias Lindholm, Martin Jones, Noah Hanifin, Tom
Wilson</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><br /><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 25%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):</span></u></b><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Mason Marchment</b>, Dal, (19% Yahoo ownership): Mason Marchment has
been pinging my radar regularly for the past several weeks, because the Stars
second line (which is also their 2nd power play) continues rolling. Seguin
already received a plug above, while Duchene was pumped here 2 weeks ago (now
above 65% owned otherwise he’d be here again). Marchment has notched 14 PTS (3
on the power play) in his last 14 GP with 23 shots and 10 hits (not great). Another
option playing 4 games and on 3 light nights (albeit it against better
competition) is <b>Joel Farabee</b>, deployed on the top line and 2nd power
play in Philly. The winger has logged 9 PTS in his last 6 GP while taking 13
shots (a better shot rate than Marchment)</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Morgan Geekie</b>, Bos, (6% Yahoo ownership): Another player who has
pinged my radar for consecutive weeks is Morgan Geekie, who is centering line 1
and power play 1 with David Pastrnak in Boston. Frankly I’m mildly confused why
his ownership didn’t climb more this week given that outstanding assignment. In
theory that’s a high-profile player to be feeding passes. Geekie is eligible at
wing and center, scoring 6 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 7 GP with 17 shots and
6 hits. One of his teammates is also on nice little heater, as <b>Trent
Frederic</b> has 6 PTS in his last 7 GP with 11 shots and 13 hits. He doesn’t
play power play and is only on the 3rd line, but he’s a solid option if you
need a few extra hits.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Thomas Harley</b>, Dal, (24% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned above,
I’m targeting Thomas Harley for both my teams. Dallas has a strong schedule
including 3 games on light nights. Minnesota has been good defensively and they
play Dallas twice, but half their team is on IR, which should make them easier
to score on. What I like most about Harley is that Miro Heiskanen is
week-to-week with an injury and Harley is the top candidate to replace him on
the Stars PP1. The youngster has scored 9 PTS in his last 14 GP with 30 shots
and 10 hits. Speaking of Minnesota, <b>Brock Faber</b> is another enticing
option with 6 PTS in his last 14 GP (though pointless in his last 6) with 24
shots and 15 hits averaging nearly 27 minutes per game.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Dakota Joshua</b>, Van, (23% Yahoo ownership): Dakota Joshua received a
plug here last week despite the Canucks only playing 3 games (there were fewer
4 game teams), but this week they’ll be playing 4 (sadly only 1 light night).
In his last 12 games, Joshua has 10 PTS with 40 hits and a +8. He’s a must add
in banger formats, and will be considered for my standard league teams just to
help me win the hits category. He ranks #71 league-wide in Yahoo’s player
rankings for the last 30 days, eligible at both wing and center. Another option
with all the aforementioned injuries in Minnesota is <b>Marco Rossi</b>, who
should get a nice deployment boost, scoring 8 PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 14
GP (not great) with 27 shots.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Casey DeSmith</b>, Van, (15% Yahoo ownership): The Vancouver Canucks have
a 4-game schedule coming up, and Mr DeSmith is sporting a .936 SV% in the last
30 days. The caveat here being this is not an easy schedule for Vancouver,
facing the Islanders, Rangers, Penguins, and Sabres, all teams who can score
(yes, even the Islanders suddenly). It’s not a risk-free bet, but there aren’t
many better options in this ownership range. One who did receive consideration
is <b>Dennis Hildeby</b>, and surely some of you are seeing that name for the
first time. It’s usually not my style to recommend goalies who have never
played an NHL game, but he should get 1-2 starts for the Leafs, in theory their
easier games. It’s not without risk, but may produce a nice reward.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Joel Farabee, Brock Faber, Trent Frederic, Marco
Rossi, Dennis Hildeby</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> </b></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Anthony Mantha, Laurent Brossoit, Dakota Joshua, Cole Perfetti, Rasmus
Sandin</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggGu8mVEcVaNn9t9IBwbrE1qd2Xe4zJ9F9M6b27cDuDP0KgzfUaBUZMJbvpwm2sh0Ply0PmWOnEibGvgN2aF3Vi_yPKa-X9-i19yiMGqClmQPviJahuFAXOWfcmmQ_c7IBgq-8Kiwwm9GOmxi_ljrz3qyp0h_6LJhfJ5pVq01beOg0jCdjcOkBkRnfhMLd/s737/week14sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggGu8mVEcVaNn9t9IBwbrE1qd2Xe4zJ9F9M6b27cDuDP0KgzfUaBUZMJbvpwm2sh0Ply0PmWOnEibGvgN2aF3Vi_yPKa-X9-i19yiMGqClmQPviJahuFAXOWfcmmQ_c7IBgq-8Kiwwm9GOmxi_ljrz3qyp0h_6LJhfJ5pVq01beOg0jCdjcOkBkRnfhMLd/w311-h400/week14sched.png" width="311" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLsaYUDDZU_lV1GgbbgzvEPwp1pzd1BvEwH9PiiKPoJaTCPiM1Z49Uw2s-xroCQRePnqIPVlvz_WCmiLRQouQvdevBVFm8EmDg_Zo5SUAfqVPEItIxtVqHq3meTXPR7S_Xa6ygRavcSu-dENeNOcR98IefnKKNtF4dClhignajWvMqHeSD7827P-uG5hFI/s1108/Week14watchlist.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="964" data-original-width="1108" height="556" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLsaYUDDZU_lV1GgbbgzvEPwp1pzd1BvEwH9PiiKPoJaTCPiM1Z49Uw2s-xroCQRePnqIPVlvz_WCmiLRQouQvdevBVFm8EmDg_Zo5SUAfqVPEItIxtVqHq3meTXPR7S_Xa6ygRavcSu-dENeNOcR98IefnKKNtF4dClhignajWvMqHeSD7827P-uG5hFI/w640-h556/Week14watchlist.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 17.3333px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-size: 17.3333px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-size: 17.3333px;"><br /></span><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">December MVF </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
forward of the month?</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nathan MacKinnon</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> COL<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nikita Kucherov TBL</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Evgeni Malkin PIT</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">December MVD </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
defenseman of the month?</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Evan Bouchard</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> EDM<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Noah Dobson NYI</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Miro Heiskanen DAL</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">December MVG </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
goalie of the month?</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor Hellebuyck</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> WPG<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Juuse Saros NSH</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Joey Daccord SEA</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Stock Rocket Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player with biggest increase
in fantasy ownership.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Joey Daccord</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> SEA +50%<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Scott Wedgewood DAL +49%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Gabe Vilardi WPG +46%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nikolaj Ehlers WPG +43%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Blake Coleman CGY +40%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Martin Jones TOR +38%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor Ingram ARI +35%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Mattias Ekholm EDM +30%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Mikael Granlund SJ +27%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Josh Manson COL +25%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Stock Plunger Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Healthy(ish) player with the
biggest drop in fantasy ownership.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Ilya Samsonov</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> TOR -34%<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Mason McTavish ANA -28%
(did miss time but is back)</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Antti Raanta CAR -27%</span><br /><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">U.P Luukkonen BUF -27%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Jonas Johansson TB -26%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Erik Gustafsson NYR -22%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">David Perron DET -20%</span><br /><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Carter Hart PHI -19%</span><br /><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Pierre-Luc Dubois LAK -18%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Jonathan Huberdeau CGY -18%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Jonathan Huberdeau Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player most below my point
projection (full season, not just December).</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Matthew Tkachuk </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">FLA 36 GP 22 PTS<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Johnny Gaudreau CBJ 38
GP 25 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor McDavid EDM 32 GP 48 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Pleasant Surprise Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player most exceeding my
point projection (full season, not just December).</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Mathieu Joseph</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> OTT 25 GP 19 PTS<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nick Bjugstad ARI 35
GP 21 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Pat Maroon MIN 35 GP 13 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Simon Edvinsson Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player I’m most disappointed
to see in the minors.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Simon Edvinsson</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> DET<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Ilya Samsonov TOR</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Spencer Knight FLA</span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> </span></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></span>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-59263702061144354642024-01-08T18:17:00.000-08:002024-01-08T18:17:05.152-08:002023/24 Week 13 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week thirteen of the NHL season has been logged into
the history books and it felt like an unusually lucky week for my picks, most
especially Thursday, going 10-2 on my over/under picks (mostly tailing Prime).
There were a few come from behind victories that helped me along the way and
the picks I shared on Twitter weren’t great (a Jets empty net goal could have
helped that), so I’m not going to brag about my genius. This felt like luck and
this week was named after Pavel Datsyuk, but looking at past week 13s in my
historical database didn’t yield similar good fortune.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on
my blog.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My time this week
was disproportionately spent preparing for the beginning of the 2nd half, when
my “Tournament of Models” is set to begin (when everyone starts at $0). My “Dog
Lover” model has already been put down, sent to the pet cemetery before most of
you were even formally introduced. That’s one where the bet selection was
completely arbitrary and could only be computed in my Game Summary worksheet,
meaning I couldn’t retroactively make its picks for older games. Granted, the
“Dog Lover” concept itself isn’t dead. There are a few possible alternative
methods that can be entirely based on other model picks. My “Fave Lover”
survived the audit and had a good week.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgQ5LHzs23W_zsYsZKXudbcxqmJcMpydPZMQThYCRlDwFoX56So1e5TKDS72ct9c9XAMZkw-5HevJDnznBFlTxWkfszy7lO1Pwy4imepzvlBhpxo3SCJcEZFNKROVb-rNcJjDoWO-ZD_cZmdfuujxNv68L7ZiDPPY7XJ1xk-3LD4Dju5mRHS_9zKBRlWqb/s298/wk13A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="268" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgQ5LHzs23W_zsYsZKXudbcxqmJcMpydPZMQThYCRlDwFoX56So1e5TKDS72ct9c9XAMZkw-5HevJDnznBFlTxWkfszy7lO1Pwy4imepzvlBhpxo3SCJcEZFNKROVb-rNcJjDoWO-ZD_cZmdfuujxNv68L7ZiDPPY7XJ1xk-3LD4Dju5mRHS_9zKBRlWqb/s1600/wk13A.png" width="268" /></a></div> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This turned out to be a big week for road teams more
than anything, winning 65%, but that certainly wasn’t the case last season when
home teams won a majority at this period of the schedule. That was good for me,
who ended up betting road teams disproportionately even though it wasn’t a
deliberate strategy. I just liked the teams on road trips better than the teams
on homestands, and sometimes that’s all home-road splits come down to, who is
at home or on the road any given week. This was also a good week to bet against
back-to-backs, or at least home teams who played yesterday, especially for me.
New Jersey vs Washington, St. Louis vs Carolina, and Vancouver vs New Jersey
all won.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My <a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-14-nhl-betting-preview">preview
yesterday</a> mentioned my project to build some new models and recalibrate
existing ones (which is still ongoing, so structural changes may be coming
soon). I accumulated 230 games worth of input data to assist in the model
building process. One of the new models was a version of the “fair line
estimator” (aka FLE) model that uses the last 10 road games of the road team
and last 10 home games of the home team to estimate what the line should be.
Then bet the so-called “value”. When applied to the sample data, it was a giant
loser in every possible category. It could not have been more wrong if I were
deliberately trying to build a model that picks wrong outcomes.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This then begged the question, if it’s THAT good at
being wrong, what about a model that bets the opposite? So, I flipped the picks,
didn’t even change the bet sizes, and voila, big profit. As the other one was
awful at everything, this one was good at nearly everything. A few weeks ago I
built a model that uses the full season FLE to bet “line value”, which had a
great first week and is still above zero, but slowly declining. That’s why I
built the new version for “last 10 home or road games” to get a more recent
sample that is larger than “last 30 days”. The full season had a great first
week, but that could have been a fluke. Broken clocks are right twice a day.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Once the full season model was applied to the last 230
games instead of the last couple weeks, it was bad too. Not quite as profitable
to bet against, but still profitable (7% vs 12%). On one hand, it should have
been exciting to stumble upon a winning betting formula, but this had
implications beyond giving out better picks in the future. Some of you may
already be thinking it. I have been giving people betting advice based on this
so-called “line value”, when it might actually be better to bet the opposite.
This moral quandary forced me on a long walk engaged in deep introspection.
What exactly does this mean?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>How can
betting against line value be so effective?<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">If a line is +160 and the records of the two teams
dictates that the line SHOULD be +120, I’ve always looked at that as getting
$40 of value on $100 bet. But perhaps the I should have been dwelling more on
why is that line off? What do the sportsbooks know that I don’t? I’m a pretty
smart guy with an IQ in the 130s, but there’s a lot of people who are smarter
than me, several of which probably work for oddsmakers. They have more money,
resources, man-power, etc, etc, etc, and I’m just a one man show (flying too
close to the sun at times). There is also an expression among seasoned bettors
called “a rat line” where a line is suspiciously off. Almost like the
oddsmakers want you to bet that.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">One of my summer projects was sorting thousands of my
“game notes” into categories then calculating rate of return for each. There is
a column in my spreadsheet where I write why I made each pick, which was
examined for profitable patterns (there’s a lot of unfinished work in that
project). The biggest takeaway was a 20% return when I mentioned anything to do
with goalies. There was also a paradox that I did not give much thought; a
higher rate of return when complaining about line price but betting it anyway versus
making a bet based on line value. That wasn’t expected, but it was an
unscientific study so I moved on. Perhaps I should have dug a little deeper.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">On one hand it’s embarrassing that I’ve been pumping
this fair line estimator when it should have been a tool for sniffing out rats,
but now that we’re here, this is good news.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Live and learn. The fair line estimator was a new invention, but I was
using a version of that for all my picks dating back to 2019. Maybe that’s why
my historical return is only 2.2%, with the bulk of my profit coming from
betting against terrible teams and goalies. My best skill is exploiting bad
teams and bad goalies while my line value-based picks have been a hinderance.
This new model is being called “Shorting Value” because it was designed to find
value, but now wants to bet against it.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Tampa Bay Lightning</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$1,107<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I wasn’t even aware of my success betting Tampa Bay Lightning
games this week until Saturday night when I first looked at my weekly team
results. They played 3 times losing twice, with me picking the correct outcome
in each game (including the correct over/under). It kicked off with a winning
bet on Jets -1.5 goals on Tuesday (a pick shared in my report last week), then
betting Tampa to beat Minnesota without Kaprizov, then picking the Bruins on
Saturday. We’re nearly at half-time on the season, and the Lightning are not
currently occupying a playoff spot. Now they’re running Vasilevskiy into the
ground trying to close the gap. Sell any Tampa stock you have.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second best team of the week was the Dallas Stars,
who went 0-3 missing Jake Oettinger and Miro Heiskanen due to injury. I kept
betting them to lose because Scott Wedgewood was starting all their games and
Matt Murray 2.0 was a risk to start any given night. Dallas went 0-3 this week
but their overs went 3-0 (hint: I bet all those because of Wedge). This team
still has plenty of good players and Oettinger should be back any day now,
which is why I picked them to win Monday. Well, also because they’re playing
Minnesota who are missing some stars of their own. I’ll mostly be shorting
Dallas without Miro.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Los Angeles Kings</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$357<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was quite a good week for me, so there were not
many contenders in my worst team of the week category. The LA Kings sank to the
bottom after losing to Washington on Sunday, with most of my red ink coming
from that one game. Still, this team has not been performing as well as that
beast from the first quarter, which might be partially because Cam Talbot is
slowly transforming back into a pumpkin, which would make me very concerned
about betting them in the 2nd half (and very concerned about Talbot being on
both my fantasy teams). LA has now lost 5 consecutive games, which does raise a
few alarm bells.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Leafs were occupying last place in my weekly ranks
as of Saturday night, despite winning their game against San Jose. I told
subscribers in my picks email that it was one of my largest wagers, but wasn’t
sharing it as an “official” pick because this team has a long history of
choking as giant favorites when I make big bets on them to win (more on that
below). They managed to pull out a 4-1 victory, which can’t be said for the
Rangers (who were my other big unofficial bet that actually did choke as big
favorites). As long as Martin Jones is playing well, this team should win more
than they lose, but as we saw last year, Marty can flip the switch from good to
bad very quickly.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 13 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 21.3333px; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBRcQ3u3zlqVbWphilmLpiYRJTrHI_6CksmEpNkb_f9LvydUzD_979uykuwJgnQgKeTxcgvWMsnKitFkZ2fCt_8uWDevajD65yob_K7EjSaIw2dmHPGZex1UhUTKNauV3dkIM5epQAoxcWek4jmLvaYYz_7zDRysn2eHYCkxGkfsKOMiCs0_OAYkkA4Bk5/s558/wk13B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiBRcQ3u3zlqVbWphilmLpiYRJTrHI_6CksmEpNkb_f9LvydUzD_979uykuwJgnQgKeTxcgvWMsnKitFkZ2fCt_8uWDevajD65yob_K7EjSaIw2dmHPGZex1UhUTKNauV3dkIM5epQAoxcWek4jmLvaYYz_7zDRysn2eHYCkxGkfsKOMiCs0_OAYkkA4Bk5/w400-h231/wk13B.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />My solid week was being driven largely be visitors,
favorites -1.5 goals, and underdog moneylines. I was mostly avoiding teams -1.5
goals in December (with a few exceptions) but have slowly been getting sucked
back in. Faves -1.5 produced a net profit this week, while favorites ML did not
(mostly because of dogs cashing over the weekend). The recent success of road
teams was partially reflected in my preview yesterday, and we have a few good
teams departing for road trips, so I’m anticipating another strong performance
for the road warriors.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrf7LJF9XXmQmdm8TPm0CEjCXy0o8yMWw-TeL86J1o-IaHA0a6r9z9dFGuu_xWEmsGXL63GzI9WSSh3nzqPNH89v8nZ-s0cEIyihvDWpKw2phDU9UnREpoGVnNoeZ7ye_OYfWqkCuY0FY2tzqR233PAIE29yEBpO1X-2AedOAUoynAmjsMpaWw56zEKRx2/s660/wk13C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrf7LJF9XXmQmdm8TPm0CEjCXy0o8yMWw-TeL86J1o-IaHA0a6r9z9dFGuu_xWEmsGXL63GzI9WSSh3nzqPNH89v8nZ-s0cEIyihvDWpKw2phDU9UnREpoGVnNoeZ7ye_OYfWqkCuY0FY2tzqR233PAIE29yEBpO1X-2AedOAUoynAmjsMpaWw56zEKRx2/w383-h400/wk13C.png" width="383" /></a></div><br />There was an underdog -1.5 goals in my winnings this
week when Buffalo upset the Penguins in Pittsburgh. My models put me on that
pick, which hit at +315. I also hit Buffalo -1.5 at +180 vs Montreal, which was
also strongly recommended by my models (Betting Venues is skilled with Sabres
pucklines). Now that I’m building up a harem of trusted advisors and better
understand their strengths and weaknesses, I’m hoping this will lead to a
fantastic second half. My faith in the Kings and Coyotes created the most red
ink for my portfolio this week, but I’m going to double down and pick both
those teams again tomorrow.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTmvoSJreWL82GmZ6K9Qp2zftI2Q1wQdYv929_QLKl0B6mj5sHTkf07gsH4KVk58u6lq5rUCRzdvuK1jwYdDro6QipK8Hay7gHok5sqtGJ4_r-cQz9YZbVhgUuFlZaX5EjDiDKQiMZRHWCdVFuAdsVi-3ih-AuEOQzGoB1xeA-t0OAiKdRxqzLN4ue-P7g/s591/wk13D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTmvoSJreWL82GmZ6K9Qp2zftI2Q1wQdYv929_QLKl0B6mj5sHTkf07gsH4KVk58u6lq5rUCRzdvuK1jwYdDro6QipK8Hay7gHok5sqtGJ4_r-cQz9YZbVhgUuFlZaX5EjDiDKQiMZRHWCdVFuAdsVi-3ih-AuEOQzGoB1xeA-t0OAiKdRxqzLN4ue-P7g/w400-h290/wk13D.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />If you’d like to know how my Tailing History model did
so well with over/unders this week, if you bet $100 on over 6 and under 6.5
whenever one of those was the total (which was 96% of games), you banked more
than $1,300. That tends to be what Tails does more often than not. Over 6,
Under 6.5. That has produced a better return than all my over/under picks this
season.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv55J5cmXHFpZhJVKnHntHoQp-myUQp6qwkJyLKlAxlMtCpfWLudr0ZDs9IzjE1BPSUqn9XOfc-gf4IuJ-Ssc1CXFJ3jCR6At2Ag3YgLcyMzp2ccztQBzFVjg-x0YA20KhiwXOzl9WHCVP95s5juq9wF__4hO2diszc6Z9ZnXutHvuDWYLCDPkSCybrmxh/s724/wk13PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="584" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgv55J5cmXHFpZhJVKnHntHoQp-myUQp6qwkJyLKlAxlMtCpfWLudr0ZDs9IzjE1BPSUqn9XOfc-gf4IuJ-Ssc1CXFJ3jCR6At2Ag3YgLcyMzp2ccztQBzFVjg-x0YA20KhiwXOzl9WHCVP95s5juq9wF__4hO2diszc6Z9ZnXutHvuDWYLCDPkSCybrmxh/w323-h400/wk13PR.png" width="323" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Below is the graphic with everyone’s performance
this week, including betting $100 on every outcome.<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNfdxvHPPfducTe5fQbXvgxyTYS7p2woOtEENaMiXdZvbdTg_RzMGkKL4lN4HOOFvJwd8ojsCI2oquBeZ-bM7fd3qdzJcrx80yJDgDoLyUjeOsbXJjvXLSA60rM7u7NGyRyZZ4XnCEcLsWU8goSzvgC75R-QB1treHH-zjQFwGDZKvsnmFon29FPfOk8Z2/s1226/wk13E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="873" data-original-width="1226" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNfdxvHPPfducTe5fQbXvgxyTYS7p2woOtEENaMiXdZvbdTg_RzMGkKL4lN4HOOFvJwd8ojsCI2oquBeZ-bM7fd3qdzJcrx80yJDgDoLyUjeOsbXJjvXLSA60rM7u7NGyRyZZ4XnCEcLsWU8goSzvgC75R-QB1treHH-zjQFwGDZKvsnmFon29FPfOk8Z2/w640-h456/wk13E.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Shorting Value model might have been born
yesterday, but it had the data to make picks all the way back to Dec 3. I could
go back even further and also run the same model for past seasons looking to
short value. That will probably need to be done eventually, but I’m focusing right
now on my second quarter report and getting all these models upgraded and
running by the start of Q3. This was one of my best weeks of the season, and Max
Profit more than doubled my winnings (hint, I’ve been tailing Maximus often, so
he’s partially responsible for my success too). I do have some sad news to
share, my Seasonal Goalies model has been permanently deleted. The raw data is
still in my spreadsheet, but is no longer making active picks.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m busy preparing a “Tournament of Models” to
commence at the beginning of the second half, which beings on January 15th.
Some of my 15 existing models have been performing so poorly they were
scheduled for deletion, but I decided to go back and review their input data
from the last month and see if there was a more optimal bet selection
algorithm, specifically regarding bet sizes. Some of these models were created
using current data, but they did not receive a proper “bet size” optimization
calibration. That was my big job on Friday and Saturday, checking to make sure
there wasn’t a better way to use the data before abandoning the concept.
Seasonal Goalies failed.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO-ojG_3kgpyyQ41f8wj9e-gjl1URRETuczg61dk4dc_cM-wZjxp_twE6ZC6TrLtkItQxUTfvlmvAwbkvrTuSIu7qvIK0qfieP2kYYa1h8kXYCCYmf0D4iV3A2Memj433rTnDAj67ZevB92vm43fNElGxhdU72HSg_LOA9YAQAWZltwJQwW_uFyRzGLflP/s353/wk13F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="353" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO-ojG_3kgpyyQ41f8wj9e-gjl1URRETuczg61dk4dc_cM-wZjxp_twE6ZC6TrLtkItQxUTfvlmvAwbkvrTuSIu7qvIK0qfieP2kYYa1h8kXYCCYmf0D4iV3A2Memj433rTnDAj67ZevB92vm43fNElGxhdU72HSg_LOA9YAQAWZltwJQwW_uFyRzGLflP/s320/wk13F.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />More models were created in this process, but there
will be more information on that soon. Looking at my team of over/under
algorithms (aka the OU Council), most of them had a good week. The games were
predictable from a few different angles, with avg goals last 5 games being the
biggest winner (that was my previous primary). Prime did have a good week and I
mostly followed the picks, but went 2-5 when disagreeing. Game Sum was deleted
as a betting model but still makes OU picks. Prime Line Value has a seat on the
OUC, but is facing demotion for bad performance. There isn’t an obvious
replacement among the existing algorithms, so it might be one of the newbies.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-87886592664183665672024-01-02T14:09:00.000-08:002024-01-02T14:09:49.139-08:002023/24 Week 13 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 13 of the NHL season is 3
is here and I've got a few potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes the Winnipeg Jets, who play 8 games in
the next 13 days, only 1 against a team sitting in a playoff spot. You could
almost justify adding Brossoit in a standard league. Washington faces tougher
opponents, but has 3 games on light nights. If you scroll down to the bottom,
you can view my team strength of schedule graphic and the aforementioned final
watchlist used to compile this report, including their upcoming schedules.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Gabe Vilardi</b>, Wpg, (62% Yahoo ownership): Gabe Vilardi has been
featured in 3 consecutive waiver reports, and with the Jets winning the best
schedule award in week 13, you should let it ride if he’s on your roster. They
also play a back-to-back against Minnesota on Saturday-Sunday, then Tampa,
Anaheim, San Jose, Arizona next week. You’ll get 6 games in the next 9 days
from any Jets you might add. In his last 12 GP, Vilardi has 14 PTS, 34 shots,
and a +13. Also eligible at both C and RW. Another player quietly heating up
with an upcoming 4-game sched is <b>Nazem Kadri</b>, scoring 11 PTS (2 on the
power play) in his last 13 GP with 49 shots. He is centering the second line
and playing top power play.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Elias Lindholm</b>, Cgy, (63% Yahoo ownership): The Calgary Flames
don’t have the best schedule coming up, only one light night and a few good
defensive teams (Chicago notwithstanding), but what they do have is more
options that you’re more likely to find on waivers. Elias Lindholm isn’t the
hottest option, but he does center the top line and top power play, scoring 8
PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 13 GP with 37 shots and 13 hits. The downside is
center-only, so make sure you’ve got room. Another option that’s also line 1,
PP1 in Calgary and is more widely available (eligible at more positions (C/LW))
is <b>Yegor Sharangovich</b>, with 12 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 13 GP with
29 shots.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Charlie Lindgren</b>, Wsh, (48% Yahoo ownership): This slot was
slated to feature Charlie Lindgren, until I noticed right before posting that
he had left tonight’s game in the first period and did not return. The Caps
have a flexible schedule with 3 games on light nights, so if Lindgren’s injury
isn’t serious and he’s back Monday, he is sporting a .929 SV% in the last 8
games and is probably the best option. Even if Charlie is healthy, it’s not
going to be an easy schedule for Washington. One team who does have an easier
schedule is Toronto, and <b>Martin Jones</b> was my top recommendation last
week, finding his way onto both my teams. The Leafs are playing LA, Anaheim,
and San Jose this week, (it will almost certainly be Samsonov vs Ducks). I may
bench Jones against LA.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Noah Hanifin</b>, Cgy, (44% Yahoo ownership): This must be an
exciting waiver report for Flames fans, who are up to 4 recommended additions.
Noah Hanfin has been productive in his last 13 GP, scoring 7 PTS (1 on the PP)
with 23 shots and 10 hits. He might only play on the 2nd power play unit, but his
productivity at even strength has been plenty effective to make up the difference.
Besides, there weren’t any glaring PP1 defense options in this ownership range
to sink Noah. <b>Neal Pionk</b> earned consideration, who also plays PP2 except
for the Jets, who do have a more appealing upcoming schedule. Pionk won’t score
the PTS Hanifin should, but does have 25 shots and 23 hits in his last 12 GP if
that’s something you need.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Tom Wilson</b>, Wsh, (62% Yahoo ownership): I’ve been banging
the Tom Wilson drum for much of the first half and his ownership seems to have
hit a plateau. I can only assume this means 40% of Yahoo leagues don’t count
both hits and shots, because if your league does and Wilson is available, go
grab him. He’s still playing top line and top power play in Washington, which
may not be as appealing as past years given Ovechkin’s struggles, but Caps play
3 times on light nights this week, so Wilson still has value in non-banger
leagues (9 PTS in his last 14 GP with 44 shots and 40 hits). Also keep an eye
out for his teammate <b>Max Pacioretty</b> who is nearing return from surgery,
who could end up bouncing Wilson from the top line and power play.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Martin Jones, Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich, Neal
Pionk, Max Pacioretty<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Gabe Vilardi, Matt Duchene, Martin Jones, Robert Thomas, Mattias
Ekholm<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 25%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):</span></u></b></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black;"><span style="font-size: 18px;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Anthony Mantha</b>, Wsh, (6% Yahoo ownership): BREAKING NEWS you may
not be aware of, Anthony Mantha is on a heater, scoring 8 goals and 12 PTS (2
on the PP) in his last 14 GP, with 32 shots on net. You already know Washington
has a flexible schedule, and Mantha is currently deployed on their 2nd line and
top power play. His career looked dead in the water a few months ago when he
taking significant flak from Caps fans. It’s nice to see a little redemption
arc unfolding. His linemate <b>Aleksi Protas</b> has also been scoring lately
with 10 PTS in his last 14 GP, currently available in 100% of Yahoo leagues.
Protas ceiling is currently limited by a lack of power play time, but
productive 5v5.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Laurent Brossoit</b>, Wpg, (7% Yahoo ownership): As previously
mentioned, the Jets are going to be playing 6 games in the next 9 days, which
includes a pair of back-to-backs and some weak opponents (they actually play 8
in the next 13 days, and only 1 of those opponents currently occupies a playoff
spot). You’ll get 3, possibly 4 starts out of Laurent Brossoit in that span
(available in 93% of Yahoo leagues) who is sporting a .951 SV% in the last 30
days. Another team with a busy schedule is Calgary, and their back-up <b>Dan
Vladar</b> isn’t quite as hot but they play 7 games in 12 days starting Sunday.
He has posted an .891 SV% in his last 4 games and is available in 98% of Yahoo
leagues.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Dakota Joshua</b>, Van, (24% Yahoo ownership): The Canucks only
play 3 games this week, all on busy nights, but Ottawa-St. Louis-New Jersey are
all easy to score on most games. This is not Joshua’s first appearance here, as
my man has been on the radar nearly every week, catching fire with 6 goals and
10 PTS in his last 13 GP. But the points aren’t the reason he's here, rather
his 45 hits in those 13 GP. He’s becoming must own in banger formats. If your
league doesn’t count hits and you’d like an extra game, you could try <b>Mikael
Backlund</b> in Calgary, centering line 3 and power play 2. In his last 13 GP,
Backlund has 7 PTS (1 on the PP) and 33 shots on goal.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Cole Perfetti</b>, Wpg, (21% Yahoo ownership): Cole Perfetti might
only have 3 PTS in his last 10 GP, but he also has 3 PTS in his last 4 GP. That
frame of reference is more appealing. But he’s here more for Winnipeg’s
upcoming schedule than for his individual scoring. I’m just bullish on the
Jets, and he’s playing 2nd line and 2nd power play. He’s eligible at both
center and wing, firing 31 shots on goal in his last 12 GP. He’s creating
chances, and I’m hoping a few more bulge the twine coming up. His teammate <b>Nino
Niederreiter</b> isn’t a bad option either, putting up 6 PTS (2 on the PP) in
his last 12 GP, with 26 shots and 19 hits. Certainly, Nino is a better category
filler than Perfetti if that’s your jam.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Rasmus Sandin</b>, Wsh, (15% Yahoo ownership): As previously
discussed, this is a good week to add Washington Capitals, and Rasmus Sandin is
deployed on their second power play unit. He caught fire last season after
being traded to Washington, but his production has been limited behind Carlson
on the PP depth chart. He does only have 3 PTS in his last 14 GP, and if that
point production is too low for your liking, there are alternatives. The Ducks
might not play 4 games this week, but all their matches fall on light nights.
That makes <b>Pavel Mintyukov</b> a tempting target with 6 PTS (3 on the PP) in
his last 12 GP. He does provide a higher offensive ceiling than Sandin.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Nino Niederreiter, Pavel Mintyukov, Mikael Backlund,
Aleksi Protas, Dan Vladar<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Nick Paul, Jonathan Drouin, Thomas Harley, Mason Marchment,
Samuel Ersson<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXDqPHXNiKtlw0WeJydhhTQt6oy1hicx3YZ-pUlTkHxmQJu2xf5vM2A4pnVYiLqefLPlBK0tL7DzjSxfQpKULIGW4T8U17AGhuvIqKBuk7TS7sXWG9-HcfJdR7Qv6QmlqVmhU66x5rWE8O-lbkdHKjxPI0dH4V_HPU8Q_fwihHMPKm5-CCVZs7WU3GLGCm/s737/Week13sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXDqPHXNiKtlw0WeJydhhTQt6oy1hicx3YZ-pUlTkHxmQJu2xf5vM2A4pnVYiLqefLPlBK0tL7DzjSxfQpKULIGW4T8U17AGhuvIqKBuk7TS7sXWG9-HcfJdR7Qv6QmlqVmhU66x5rWE8O-lbkdHKjxPI0dH4V_HPU8Q_fwihHMPKm5-CCVZs7WU3GLGCm/w311-h400/Week13sched.png" width="311" /></a></div><br /><o:p><br /></o:p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja27CJ9ARn5vjrr9Uvlt3SqfCNPsw9hOQRlAB0kc6VHEZkdIKy1n5tgFzmayKhl8OQA9VnpWrNAth6025M35fZJYTuw1BsNZHmfbTJW1H5XY50xd-1QuZJTyNzUldwIMxEcvEpg5B7SjZFutuK7Ypyj1iuCIiq8SZP4kYMSXu-nF62K1v8eoWS8ceJEYKF/s1144/week13watch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="984" data-original-width="1144" height="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEja27CJ9ARn5vjrr9Uvlt3SqfCNPsw9hOQRlAB0kc6VHEZkdIKy1n5tgFzmayKhl8OQA9VnpWrNAth6025M35fZJYTuw1BsNZHmfbTJW1H5XY50xd-1QuZJTyNzUldwIMxEcvEpg5B7SjZFutuK7Ypyj1iuCIiq8SZP4kYMSXu-nF62K1v8eoWS8ceJEYKF/w640-h550/week13watch.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-69168371240948947262024-01-02T14:03:00.000-08:002024-01-02T14:03:42.839-08:002023/24 Week 12 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week twelve of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books and with it, we say goodbye to the year 2023. Some of you might
be a little hungover today, but the Winter Classic was the only game on the
slate, which gave us all plenty of time to research the busy slate of games tomorrow.
Saturday night I sent a picks email exclusively to my free subscribers and my
two biggest bets were winners, but my over/under picks were 4-5, leading me to
small loss for the night. Otherwise, my conservative play style has mostly been
a success in the 2nd quarter.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on
my blog.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Another new year is here and one of my annual
traditions is posting a list of sports predictions. It started with an easy 11
sports predictions for 2011, but now we’re up to 24 predictions for 2024. This
is getting to be more and more work the deeper we delve into this century, but
alas I’m up to the task. Olympic years are a little easier. Today is a good day
to think about the year ahead, and you can </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/24-sports-predictions-for-2024"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">read more here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. If you’re into movies and such, my nephew and I do a similar gimmick
on his blog. We are predicting a little housecleaning over at Disney in the
year ahead, </span><a href="https://cinemaanalytica.blogspot.com/2023/12/24-moviestreaming-predictions-for-2024.html"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">read more here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6u-zgCFY9FWN0dNcHAh5fkIrgdcbkGF6cMWqRwiEMz7KdVm8vYzdutY3oM5JRKY9iiMV9BdPApxxWndpLatB6PQoOEgxwzMe8noBlGiBtxYDXqmhUA2j4KefQcNaysg_3C6mMtk7Ur7hMsI94_onKBBaXmslQx6DKlwEEf12nIg_1hlA5Rm8hAyeu6J2N/s319/wk12A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="319" data-original-width="268" height="319" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6u-zgCFY9FWN0dNcHAh5fkIrgdcbkGF6cMWqRwiEMz7KdVm8vYzdutY3oM5JRKY9iiMV9BdPApxxWndpLatB6PQoOEgxwzMe8noBlGiBtxYDXqmhUA2j4KefQcNaysg_3C6mMtk7Ur7hMsI94_onKBBaXmslQx6DKlwEEf12nIg_1hlA5Rm8hAyeu6J2N/s1600/wk12A.png" width="268" /></a></div><br />The week started off with underdogs jumping out to a
big lead on the moneyline, before regressing later in the week. By the time the
dust settled and the year ended, favorites had emerged victorious. Monday to
Friday, my investment in favorites moneyline was too big, but my profit in
underdogs +1.5 goals was enough to make up the difference. December 2023 might
be the least amount of fake money I’ve laid on pucklines -1.5 goals in any
month since October 2019, except maybe playoffs. Certainly, in seasons where
tanking was more prevalent, those favorites were winning more games
convincingly. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Exploiting bad teams has
generally been my best skill as a bettor, so this sudden onset of parity has
been problematic for me. I need new revenue streams. That’s where the models
come into play.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">San Jose Sharks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$658<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The San Jose Sharks were my most profitable team this
week, not leapfrogging Vegas until the Sunday late game, thanks entirely to a
late Josh Manson empty net goal. All my gains on favorites -1.5 goals would
have evaporated if Manson missed that open net. The Sharks losing comfortably
to Edmonton in Magnus Chrona’s first start (a pick shared in my report last
week) was my other big puckline hit of the week, so I’m starting to get
comfortable again on that front. Maybe not too comfortable. I did not do a write-up
for Sharks-Wings tomorrow, but I’ll have a minimum wager on Wings ML -192
(which is a little expensive for road Wings).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Vegas Golden Knights only played 2 games this
week, but I went 4 for 4 on my picks. I hit the Ducks ML +180 and the over on
Wednesday, which was the best pick in my betting preview last week. I then
doubled down on LA +1.5 goals and the under, which hit the next night (also
shared in my betting report). Then the team was off until the Winter Classic.
They have lost 5 of their last 7 games as the mid-season Stanley Cup hangover
continues. They have been without their best goalie Adin Hill who only played a
few minutes in December (stopping 2 of 3 shots). I have bet their opponent in 7
of their last 10 games.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">New York Rangers</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$400<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My struggles picking the winner of New York Rangers
games continues, as I’m posting a significant loss on the season both betting
them to win and lose. They are first place in the NHL going 25-10 thus far. 78%
of my money bet for the full schedule was on Rangers to win and yet somehow,
I’m running a negative balance on that pick. I’m doing well on both their overs
and unders which is why they aren’t lower in my Profitability Ranks, but it’s
frustrating. I may need to schedule an autopsy sometime in the next week to
figure out how the hell this is happening.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second worst team was the Winnipeg Jets, thanks
entirely to their loss vs Chicago (sustaining a $400 loss). I screwed up and
bet Minnesota Sunday, because I was so busy preparing my Sunday picks on
Saturday afternoon that I hadn’t even noticed Kaprizov was injured a few hours
earlier when picking Wild ML. Thankfully it was just a minimum wager (because
otherwise I’m on the Jets bandwagon) and no Kaprizov helped cash the under, so
I came out of that game with a $5 gain. I’m not too worried about their loss to
Chicago, but a few more of those and perhaps it will be time to start pumping
the brakes on my Jets love.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 12 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAQNLc658MsUNT5zmgsYc_FdKQARrGihNvIPXxti3Mtqoj1cCCR8H6mtBGjP95BcQqWqbfaZurjtOyLh3_t6SmTyOGjuWUWp2QJf74Jg5_JAhj6IpL01WFq_wxuFb7MaDuAyNlYDjCLrIv4yHmgXvBehrSoeaFu2drQTjKAYHrVpQbgvUOXCV7ehFyeVVC/s558/WK12B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="558" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAQNLc658MsUNT5zmgsYc_FdKQARrGihNvIPXxti3Mtqoj1cCCR8H6mtBGjP95BcQqWqbfaZurjtOyLh3_t6SmTyOGjuWUWp2QJf74Jg5_JAhj6IpL01WFq_wxuFb7MaDuAyNlYDjCLrIv4yHmgXvBehrSoeaFu2drQTjKAYHrVpQbgvUOXCV7ehFyeVVC/w400-h231/WK12B.png" width="400" /></a></div><br />Favorites -1.5 goals finished the week as my best
category, but that was from only 3 bets, Edmonton vs San Jose, Colorado vs San
Jose, and Ottawa vs Buffalo (which was a tip from my Expected Goals model that
I tailed). The category as a whole did turn a profit, thanks to “mild” road
favorites and “big” home favorites (the dividing line between mild and big is
-150 and +150), but aside from San Jose, I’m not convinced it’s safe to jump
whole-heartedly back in love with faves -1.5 goals. On the whole, it was
actually a much better week for favorites +1.5 goals on the alt puckline than
-1.5 goals.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHs8MVtfM6edWAYva2C2SMcYsUy_kuRgCqFszNGth_MMbuerwfQxCTGFNuh1t2M-BtBrh5ZK2r6H6LrXaJKAKpCrN3IOyuJXePoDlN7jcPEFw7D5cmk2v5KZJdJUuErHhmkxwbIZm1OejkK1gD3VTMDkmFxD57dLtiQAcmgIIkshSIQWrdKeTJ0lJV0WYs/s660/wk12C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHs8MVtfM6edWAYva2C2SMcYsUy_kuRgCqFszNGth_MMbuerwfQxCTGFNuh1t2M-BtBrh5ZK2r6H6LrXaJKAKpCrN3IOyuJXePoDlN7jcPEFw7D5cmk2v5KZJdJUuErHhmkxwbIZm1OejkK1gD3VTMDkmFxD57dLtiQAcmgIIkshSIQWrdKeTJ0lJV0WYs/w383-h400/wk12C.png" width="383" /></a></div><br />Note to self: This was a good week to bet Pittsburgh,
Boston, Carolina, and Ottawa, all teams that have shaken my confidence at some
point this quarter, but were solid bets in week 12. My lack of faith in
Pittsburgh and Carolina was costly, Florida too. Meanwhile my faith in the
Canadiens, Islanders, Jets, Lightning, and Canucks were similarly costly. The
Toronto Maple Leafs were the most profitable to bet against, which is why I’m
taking the Kings tomorrow. The Sharks went 0-3 but didn’t crack the overall “bet
against” leaderboard because the line prices were very expensive. You needed to
go big to pull a similarly sized profit.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2ei_GBKvJRMVgQwcT0UUcsWOWEVI0tsLxi3Yd4hZviamO1A32QYWajTIbmFQxDJjMOdyb3fCSWltsebPd5vp4brEzba7_hNjnOk2nuQDSrwOda-RO6YT1sq7DT9eauU6PA4Rj3EIp5WPaIqssBBkTQj1E8uDboQUr5A9ATeggo7kRwFL_43X7I_lCA9e-/s591/wk12D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2ei_GBKvJRMVgQwcT0UUcsWOWEVI0tsLxi3Yd4hZviamO1A32QYWajTIbmFQxDJjMOdyb3fCSWltsebPd5vp4brEzba7_hNjnOk2nuQDSrwOda-RO6YT1sq7DT9eauU6PA4Rj3EIp5WPaIqssBBkTQj1E8uDboQUr5A9ATeggo7kRwFL_43X7I_lCA9e-/w400-h290/wk12D.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM8J9NEJ1AhEdxDY0n9CtfAHu64LkPwgpecfSJtdv-MEwETxlzl3FGM4tIVYJ4zcxmhYsPD-tXpe44bsa43Hcz61fz14mFKSidjtJTK5mQDlDUm4d3AJKi3gIlQQM_OA1npi1LaIEqJFPA4_LhZxXzhzHuyMGwb0mn-WT4yC_u3p24yz7iKQJlfCsEPbJL/s714/wk12PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="588" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjM8J9NEJ1AhEdxDY0n9CtfAHu64LkPwgpecfSJtdv-MEwETxlzl3FGM4tIVYJ4zcxmhYsPD-tXpe44bsa43Hcz61fz14mFKSidjtJTK5mQDlDUm4d3AJKi3gIlQQM_OA1npi1LaIEqJFPA4_LhZxXzhzHuyMGwb0mn-WT4yC_u3p24yz7iKQJlfCsEPbJL/w528-h640/wk12PR.png" width="528" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Below is the graphic for how my best performing and most prominent
models have performed in this shortened week. The Fair Line Estimator model is
in my starting line-up, but I have not yet merged it into the worksheet that
makes the graphic.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgde5xlae1acNktj3uXiE7lXjEdaib7eRzgq8hjUm-5Ko0jXUGXDOciOeZZsewjNOKSNf0rAXsRLIq3XU2HIIzYHnfKcHHsxAJNYvt5rEE7IoEm2a6KUGj4Yb6pNgIDIjdl2gZHnep75kPAjIdz00clj7d4tEKZ8j5T27mllIxq9RiUBUHD2RxjCHetvi_R/s1090/wk12E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="1090" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgde5xlae1acNktj3uXiE7lXjEdaib7eRzgq8hjUm-5Ko0jXUGXDOciOeZZsewjNOKSNf0rAXsRLIq3XU2HIIzYHnfKcHHsxAJNYvt5rEE7IoEm2a6KUGj4Yb6pNgIDIjdl2gZHnep75kPAjIdz00clj7d4tEKZ8j5T27mllIxq9RiUBUHD2RxjCHetvi_R/w640-h512/wk12E.png" width="640" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The big winners among my models last week were Max
Profit (formerly known as Megatron) who received a name change that’s more
congruent with bet selection. It sums all models profit betting each outcome
with each team in the last 30 days using the “max” function in Excel. The name
is Max, but sometimes he’ll be affectionately referred to as Maximus. This was
not a good week for Maximus, but the slide began before the name change, so I’m
not going to blame that for jinxing the hot streak. I’m still trying decide if
it’s more entertaining ascribing human pronouns, feelings and emotions to my
betting models, or just treating them as “it”. Maximus is definitely a “he”.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I was very excited to see Betting Venues have another
strong week, officially ending its second quarter slide. It did very well
betting favorites -1.5 goals, and I’m hoping this resurgence is sustainable so
the advice can become trustworthy again. Keep in mind, this was updated so it
includes data from the current season, so this should continue getting smarter
as the season grows longer. It might even be better if I detach it from the
older games. Does the shortened 2021 schedule matter? Several buildings were
empty for most of the season. Is that data still relevant?<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Game Sum model was officially terminated this
morning, but will continue with over/under, where it holds a seat on the “Over
Under Council”. I’m unsure about algorithm deactivation ethics, whether
deleting Game Sum constitutes murder. This is the new world artificial
intelligence has thrust upon us, at what point does A.I constitute life with
human rights? Should the stupid versions of A.I not be entitled to those same
rights? Game Sum was a concept that I believed in, hence why I continued
sharing the picks when the results were lacking. What has been the most
profitable wager involving either of these teams in the last 30 days? Feels
super relevant, right? But maybe the answer is, sportsbooks also know what’s
been costing them money, adjusting lines to compensate.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m up to 15 active models with only my top 5 being
shared in my picks graphics. All my goalie-based models suck, and that might
just be the nature of goaltending replicability. There might not be any winner
behind that curtain, but I’ll continue trying until something emerges. I’m
still building new models every week, but mostly they’ll be replacing those
that have been deemed completely useless. One new model build today was
“Expected Goals Line Value” which estimates what the line should be based on
xGs last 30 days, then makes a bet. Like the other one, it is trained on each
scenario, and if it makes a minimum bet, it was minimally profitable. It only
scales up bets when profitable within that permutation.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWNi_dhozIMP66OGaXmvM7jPMSdf-5n8v70EaWMI4TIAWEc2Ok5euPDPAONK84qT_UBSzyh4fpJKRpZq795cLGUoNmeQYRy7fDDaITS-kba6FCDZwIzgKCJtg43xQJ-uqPQcpgMVo9qAo-KesApZ8hSL596csZt7EMny92nbS3yuv5wSBJI_xNDnuUJ6Qw/s353/wk12F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="298" data-original-width="353" height="270" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhWNi_dhozIMP66OGaXmvM7jPMSdf-5n8v70EaWMI4TIAWEc2Ok5euPDPAONK84qT_UBSzyh4fpJKRpZq795cLGUoNmeQYRy7fDDaITS-kba6FCDZwIzgKCJtg43xQJ-uqPQcpgMVo9qAo-KesApZ8hSL596csZt7EMny92nbS3yuv5wSBJI_xNDnuUJ6Qw/s320/wk12F.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There was a scoring surge for 2 weeks heading into the
Christmas break, and it did subside when play resumed (which I actually
predicted in my preview last week, having noted a decrease in post-Christmas
scoring last season). Unders finished the week 22-18-5 for $191 profit if you
bet them all. My primary algorithm (aka OU Prime) had a bad week, but I
deviated quite a lot, following Max Profit on some unders (anticipating unders
to be better). Most models got stung by the drop in scoring, except Full Season
Average, which is one of the worst performing for the full schedule.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is also where my picks for tomorrow are shared,
and we’ve got a busy Tuesday to compensate for a light Monday. I’m not sharing
picks for every game, just my favorites. The good news is that because the
Monday schedule only has a single game, there’s less new information coming in
while my picks are being calculated. I don’t need to keep checking what’s
happening today when I’m outlining picks for tomorrow, which helps. It sucks
when you do the work and break down all the angles for a game, but there’s a
major injury while you’re doing the work, requiring recalibration.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">CAR @ NYR</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL8iJOsEzN6DvALBWu19Qu4joMhE5LTT9ZhrVn7iWE_DoEwNluAxkvy2QmoFwrux598mbSFUVj1E_qvRrOXIQqBPV_olW6XihE4GgAVdOFmsMj0D2Tf7qdTdReG9FxLMbhEHNz-dUmVkVNuCP13TyJCamn2m4hlB5-zIwFAKhsWvEitpUk0vHXayIgIJn3/s516/G1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiL8iJOsEzN6DvALBWu19Qu4joMhE5LTT9ZhrVn7iWE_DoEwNluAxkvy2QmoFwrux598mbSFUVj1E_qvRrOXIQqBPV_olW6XihE4GgAVdOFmsMj0D2Tf7qdTdReG9FxLMbhEHNz-dUmVkVNuCP13TyJCamn2m4hlB5-zIwFAKhsWvEitpUk0vHXayIgIJn3/s320/G1.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">At first glance this one made me nervous as I’ve
struggled getting a read on both these teams. They both have a tendency of
letting me down when I bet them to win, and playing their best hockey when I bet
them to lose. I’m just going to play it safe and bet Canes +1.5 at -225.
Carolina has covered +1.5 in 13 of their last 15 road games. That’s why Max
Profit is all in. However, my Betting Venues model (which has been resurgent
the last 2 weeks) loves Rangers -1.5 goals. Turns out Carolina is 3-7 in their
last 10 trips to MSG. Where they are a net loser +1.5 goals. Should be
Kochetkov (.915 SV% last 30 days) vs Shesterkin. My Expected Goals models are
betting opposite moneylines. The line value version doesn’t like dogs very much.
This over/under is a tough one. If it stays at 6, I’m just going to take the
higher payout. The line has moved since I recorded it, and now the over has the
higher payout. At 6.5 I’d bet under.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">BOS @ CBJ</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjJVbqGlmG-9uWq3-beLNOpqotPzs0EIqnkB0XY2vAtpWRiM5ux2ZDxxqWBtLmIuaLoITORJ2ATt156Dx3fWMP7J4PdqlS8b5_l_E-7INhKKYkzBOM06hwOI3KTPXCP1OU-YYCwycQ_MacFt0ao3BtPJrCnS5hqHEd3aCvSaGA2sFrRzCv4mt94aK2vQt7/s459/G2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="233" data-original-width="459" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjJVbqGlmG-9uWq3-beLNOpqotPzs0EIqnkB0XY2vAtpWRiM5ux2ZDxxqWBtLmIuaLoITORJ2ATt156Dx3fWMP7J4PdqlS8b5_l_E-7INhKKYkzBOM06hwOI3KTPXCP1OU-YYCwycQ_MacFt0ao3BtPJrCnS5hqHEd3aCvSaGA2sFrRzCv4mt94aK2vQt7/s320/G2.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m not sharing a pick for this because I’m terrible
betting Columbus to win or lose, and there was significant division among my
models. Except over 6.5 goals received strong support.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">MTL @ DAL</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHP6t3k6oNbf2-EOudISsJ4TQofTuTlth6rrc0DxBdeZb4G7lhDSdl2GlswJqjELoap-5NzopWheOXDWcdb3N1NXGBK6YUEPySWBg4RHAHv68JZojAZ7sBU65bzxfhnvemIQFmOvzPf7oQe9v9DoUvbOyw4CXZxA7E_dFaZ2KOGAWHJu6xp3CfcihUE3Vx/s516/G3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHP6t3k6oNbf2-EOudISsJ4TQofTuTlth6rrc0DxBdeZb4G7lhDSdl2GlswJqjELoap-5NzopWheOXDWcdb3N1NXGBK6YUEPySWBg4RHAHv68JZojAZ7sBU65bzxfhnvemIQFmOvzPf7oQe9v9DoUvbOyw4CXZxA7E_dFaZ2KOGAWHJu6xp3CfcihUE3Vx/s320/G3.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Didn’t know I’d like this game until checking out my
models, but there’s a lot of love for the line value on Montreal, especially on
the puckline +1.5 goals at +110. Wedgewood has started 7 in a row, and the new
kid has to play eventually. That’s also why I’m taking over 6.5 goals. My
renovated Expected Goals model has Dallas +1.5 goals, and while they do enjoy
the xG advantage over Montreal, home teams in that range aren’t profitable.
When either xG model doesn’t scale up their bet size, it’s because those
circumstances were barely profitable. The Habs are a good road team, covering
+1.5 in 4 of their 6 road games on this current trip. There in lies my biggest
concern (aside from Dallas being good), Shorting Travel has a big bet on Dallas
-1.5 goals because the Habs have been on the road a long time, with Christmas
in between (adding more travel).<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">CHI @ NSH</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwB_4gemGEh16kL2QRF8kdnQsCRFmKvrefDaBradlAX8PL5D0O-II4CGPzTsIVLMXy3HsCX0516ZhREpAyNT1wynWQ7p6buuBbf9H_CocmaSqjz4yOfkXnagWB046BwAm26J9o_Ih_HAHBhBakr3AGCDtEYc5iJfTfA62SCvZzRGzxuTvA0OE_KeMcRc9S/s516/G4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwB_4gemGEh16kL2QRF8kdnQsCRFmKvrefDaBradlAX8PL5D0O-II4CGPzTsIVLMXy3HsCX0516ZhREpAyNT1wynWQ7p6buuBbf9H_CocmaSqjz4yOfkXnagWB046BwAm26J9o_Ih_HAHBhBakr3AGCDtEYc5iJfTfA62SCvZzRGzxuTvA0OE_KeMcRc9S/s320/G4.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />At first glance this game was going to be a stay away
because the price on Nashville felt a little expensive, but seeing Chicago has rolled
out Mrazek 3 games in a row, this will almost certainly be Soderblom. My only
reservation limiting my bet size is that the xG models don’t love Nashville.
One is putting a minimum bet on Preds +1.5 goals (which means it’s barely
profitable) and the other is taking Chicago. Under 6.5 has been a better bet
with these teams in the last 30 days (see Max Profit), but I’m going to take
the over because probably Soderblom.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">CGY @ MIN</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCFE5KbuFssCoKDLz3a5VWJjYZIFhfqT6CHh8L15qo-Nvk-_K2-do8SPBhQ06auTiXALgEacmjhZa4dTEl_Nmp48aaUgo86kv-cdiqitPaKZdlQaO8C-j4e4YfJt1kGO2aQqRSg5Jgzko06feWFqtH2q9LaipyJVdjactUnZHuvQhRY76fGsc_DSFVM3Jj/s516/G5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCFE5KbuFssCoKDLz3a5VWJjYZIFhfqT6CHh8L15qo-Nvk-_K2-do8SPBhQ06auTiXALgEacmjhZa4dTEl_Nmp48aaUgo86kv-cdiqitPaKZdlQaO8C-j4e4YfJt1kGO2aQqRSg5Jgzko06feWFqtH2q9LaipyJVdjactUnZHuvQhRY76fGsc_DSFVM3Jj/s320/G5.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />Minnesota would be my pick here if not for the
Kaprizov injury, so I’ll be taking the Flames ML +120 (which has already moved
to +102). My models support Minnesota stronger than Calgary, but none of them
have seen the Kaprizov news yet, or at least had time to absorb the impact into
their projection. I’m also taking under 6 goals.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">WPG @ TB</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibCIEluelZjeCXIOE-gEl-63an_4UkRDzhlMGqXtG7ljxCxvRFk5eeRJrLXe9RzaE28drGi8jRnwOfeWH3wHJe53RMAjVD1ZcdBDHcsVEYW1mxmFHGcasMvlzQWaR0H3QsC_L7xQbMBiTeOZn9p9vjQncsQgowJSeszey3MdfCROb5-1bPjHK29g1Di7JI/s516/G6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibCIEluelZjeCXIOE-gEl-63an_4UkRDzhlMGqXtG7ljxCxvRFk5eeRJrLXe9RzaE28drGi8jRnwOfeWH3wHJe53RMAjVD1ZcdBDHcsVEYW1mxmFHGcasMvlzQWaR0H3QsC_L7xQbMBiTeOZn9p9vjQncsQgowJSeszey3MdfCROb5-1bPjHK29g1Di7JI/s320/G6.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />There was substantial love among my models for Jets
-1.5 goals, with both Max Profit and Betting Venues running a big positive
balance on that pick in the last 30 days. I’m going to tail at +185, but will
limit my bet size because this should be Vasilevskiy. The good news is that the
Jets have won their last 2 home games vs Tampa, with Hellebuyck beating Vasy
straight up in both (covering -1.5 goals in both while the Jets were
underdogs). This time they are favored at -130, but the last 30 days fair line
estimator thinks that should be -200. I also love under 6.5 goals.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">NYI @ COL</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbuDYZVFvn8Gf6JRhepZstUP1kFQE49t9EFP1dEiI4mLLHVe3vsIoDs4WeNslrupmg-PMjRQLYVqKhPoRoRWRyV5uIIY7H2_k3Jy2foWKxH6DwbFGhMKHCpEsAtCEaYnVVqzu4iIRKgYlY_tIjvOFzATe9yYiY6GS2bYNSFujiSfw41I8Mia6bm2bVn-Vx/s516/G7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbuDYZVFvn8Gf6JRhepZstUP1kFQE49t9EFP1dEiI4mLLHVe3vsIoDs4WeNslrupmg-PMjRQLYVqKhPoRoRWRyV5uIIY7H2_k3Jy2foWKxH6DwbFGhMKHCpEsAtCEaYnVVqzu4iIRKgYlY_tIjvOFzATe9yYiY6GS2bYNSFujiSfw41I8Mia6bm2bVn-Vx/s320/G7.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />I’ve already reached my goal for picks shared, but
decided this one needed to be added because of my overwhelming model support
for Colorado, including both my Expected Goals models and Max Profit laying the
maximum on Avs. The only reservation is that there’s a high probability of
Prosvetov in goal (which is why I’m staying away from the puckline), but that
only strengthens my support for over 6 goals.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">FLA @ ARI</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKUez6y9CftOoUYyeaTX7tUKGTAXRGYe8RV3rmqPvkLKxg6N1gEhnCvSYjhKujNhPKFT9xojAT5LqqNero_LXPYo3rUoVTVQs2hN6HguaweLRcbMClb6kmOqLOR9L_IAKITC-uo1rgWr9a2JlERI4SbX89hauF2xx7sgOcCe3HTWzlDQuLYYLdRGjoesB2/s516/G8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKUez6y9CftOoUYyeaTX7tUKGTAXRGYe8RV3rmqPvkLKxg6N1gEhnCvSYjhKujNhPKFT9xojAT5LqqNero_LXPYo3rUoVTVQs2hN6HguaweLRcbMClb6kmOqLOR9L_IAKITC-uo1rgWr9a2JlERI4SbX89hauF2xx7sgOcCe3HTWzlDQuLYYLdRGjoesB2/s320/G8.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />I’m betting the Arizona ML and most of my models are
also taking the Coyotes, but Florida is a good team and I’m not in love with
that pick. The only reason I’m sharing a pick for this game is because I love
under 6.5 goals. This is among the most my Over Under Council has loved a pick.<br />
</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">TOR @ LA</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJQsYhKMYJP_WKl_MNh23F15IgK7UPj_DIqP_mqCZ9oiLq7ucK6kiuPMVldeVC0whvazQ5xECfAw2UPZyZYX_6ms6iVxK5SkkoXvxATOu7sAzPJSe_n0xWtzYaQimiQNp6GcIoaEwJMiQwK9Jh12471MHlKoIADSIgKLwpVHI_dqx1erpX47QXfFcr1VkM/s516/G9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJQsYhKMYJP_WKl_MNh23F15IgK7UPj_DIqP_mqCZ9oiLq7ucK6kiuPMVldeVC0whvazQ5xECfAw2UPZyZYX_6ms6iVxK5SkkoXvxATOu7sAzPJSe_n0xWtzYaQimiQNp6GcIoaEwJMiQwK9Jh12471MHlKoIADSIgKLwpVHI_dqx1erpX47QXfFcr1VkM/s320/G9.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />There’s not much to write here. This is more games
than I was planning to cover, but with the state of the Leafs goaltending and
their slumping, I like the Kings moneyline -130. Most of my models also prefer
LA. The over/under on the other hand is a little dicey and I’m taking over 6.5
but don’t love the pick.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">PHI @ EDM</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz8nt1ceAacKhgMMDQAlNpdV3wsFTDnBN3VwxUr-mmBPhf5Rpok6fU9aewIMVe5dfLWdeL8AOMmhatB7F0P0WG4PVMkqvMGpDhIdsNMn2stK_HHJgaOA2CdHZR9uRd_Zv896xFIJ-NjKeC9UmnoNU8AOVu1kZZuoLPRck_kkG7ACkMaQ5sEEI9Sd-Csn7I/s516/G10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="516" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgz8nt1ceAacKhgMMDQAlNpdV3wsFTDnBN3VwxUr-mmBPhf5Rpok6fU9aewIMVe5dfLWdeL8AOMmhatB7F0P0WG4PVMkqvMGpDhIdsNMn2stK_HHJgaOA2CdHZR9uRd_Zv896xFIJ-NjKeC9UmnoNU8AOVu1kZZuoLPRck_kkG7ACkMaQ5sEEI9Sd-Csn7I/s320/G10.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />This game was targeted because the Oilers are
returning from a long road trip, and some of my other models also like the
Flyers (who are a good road team). Though both my Expected Goals models are
making max bets on Edmonton (one puckline, one moneyline). I’m not sure what’s
worse, Edmonton returning from a long road trip or Flyers being on a long road
trip. Granted this permutation was examined in the model construction and it
was deemed visitors -1.5 goals was still the most profitable choice. I’m
putting a minimum bet on Philly ML +160 because the last 30 days fair line
estimator thinks that should be +133. But Edmonton can be scary. I’m more
confident in under 6.5 goals.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_19" o:spid="_x0000_i1032" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_20" o:spid="_x0000_i1031" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_21" o:spid="_x0000_i1030" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_23" o:spid="_x0000_i1028" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_26" o:spid="_x0000_i1027" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_27" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-no-proof: yes;"><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_18" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" style="height: 363pt; mso-wrap-style: square; visibility: visible; width: 386.25pt;" type="#_x0000_t75">
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-88968797018012431612023-12-31T17:21:00.000-08:002023-12-31T17:21:02.906-08:0024 Sports Predictions for 2024<div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">What
will happen this year in sports? I’ve been posting annual prediction lists for
more than a decade and one thing that became very clear early in my sports
predictions career is that my pick to win the Stanley Cup seemed cursed. It
started when I picked Pittsburgh to win the Cup, then Crosby got concussed at
the Winter Classic. Every year I picked Pittsburgh to win and some
extraordinary folly knocked them out of the playoffs. Then as soon as I stopped
picking Pittsburgh, they won back-to-back Cups. I picked Washington to win,
they got embarrassed, but then won the next year. I picked St. Louis when they
were one of the best teams in the league, they collapsed and missed the
playoffs, only to win the Cup the next year. To view last year's list, <a href="https://slatekeeper.blogspot.com/2022/12/23-sports-predictions-for-2023.html">click
here</a>. If you’re interested in movies, I also do an annual list of <a href="https://cinemaanalytica.blogspot.com/2023/12/24-moviestreaming-predictions-for-2024.html">movie
predictions</a> with my nephew for his blog.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It's
unclear how I may have angered the hockey Gods leading to a curse inflicted
upon my annual Stanley Cup prediction, but with great power comes great
responsibility.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> <br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
San Francisco 49ers win the Super Bowl</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Denver Nuggets win the NBA championship</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Atlanta Braves win the World Series</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Nathan
MacKinnon wins the Hart trophy and Art Ross</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Canada
medals in basketball at Paris Olympics</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">There
will be an unusually large number of Olympic records in running at the Paris
Olympics</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Canada
medals in women's soccer in Paris Olympics</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Canada
wins multiple gold medals in women's swimming at Paris Olympics</span></li><li><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-ansi-language: FR; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Andre De Grasse medals in Paris
Olympics</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Elias
Pettersson signs the biggest free agent contract (above $11M)</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Chicago Blackhawks get the first overall pick in the NHL draft</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Connor
Hellebuyck wins the Vezina trophy</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Rick
Bowness wins Coach of the Year</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Quinn
Hughes wins the Norris trophy</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Usyk
beats Tyson Fury</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Francis
Nganu wins a boxing match</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Conor
McGregor fights (or agrees to fight) a boxing match</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Toronto Blue Jays finish at least 5 games out of a wild card spot</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Somebody
hits a hole in one at a Sandbagger Invitational</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Coyotes
leave Arizona</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">The
Winnipeg Jets win a playoff series</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">A
Canadian tennis player wins a major</span></li><li><span style="font-size: 12.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Slovakia
wins World Junior tournament</span></li></ol></o:p></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-15457543400623744962023-12-19T20:15:00.000-08:002023-12-19T20:15:48.760-08:002023/24 Week 10 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week ten of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books with Christmas just 7 days away. That’s typically when I’m busy
making my July free agency predictions, but surely that will also be a fertile
few days to create more betting models. Many that I’m creating in preparation
for my 2nd half “Tournament of Models” won’t have their picks shared in my
game-by-game graphics, but may get mentioned in the write-up. Some need a
little trial and error to figure out if that’s the optimal bet selection
matrix, others simply need to prove their effectiveness before I want people
seeing all their picks.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you’d like to
read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a
330-page book outlining the results from every angle. <span style="background: white; color: black;">What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the </span></span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Economists-Betting-Prospectus-ebook/dp/B0BL2PSXCQ/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Amazon
store</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been moved to Substack this
season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free
subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned
that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and
ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification
each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the
algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.<br /><span style="background: white; color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjZDbtQiN1fGdXBOsnAnHvgUwDslKidgTaOlQSGpV5ghzN4pfvLNY4azPx59S7aEkwoiCxxmU9NfQsV1KxoWuZBcoGytJilOG2AkqCAQC38fwHQYf75TMsbmtNP6O1adiF0ox0jWTXpVBbIcmx4ubej6yhGKPeJPl4leBfBY9a2myUB9uAZLIvSPiqLbwL/s268/wk10A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="234" data-original-width="268" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjZDbtQiN1fGdXBOsnAnHvgUwDslKidgTaOlQSGpV5ghzN4pfvLNY4azPx59S7aEkwoiCxxmU9NfQsV1KxoWuZBcoGytJilOG2AkqCAQC38fwHQYf75TMsbmtNP6O1adiF0ox0jWTXpVBbIcmx4ubej6yhGKPeJPl4leBfBY9a2myUB9uAZLIvSPiqLbwL/s1600/wk10A.png" width="268" /></a></div><br />This was my second
consecutive winning week following an extended slump, thanks to effective
over/under picks and staying away from favorites -1.5 goals. This week my sum
wagered -1.5 goals was exactly zero (the best two teams to bet against -1.5
were Edmonton and Ottawa). While some of my models continued to seriously
struggle (at least with moneylines and pucklines), the Megatron model was they
only one managing to beat me. It just steals from the other models, summing
their profit/loss on each potential wager with these teams last 30 days. I even
let it steal from me (which technically isn’t stealing, but I’m trying to
anthropomorphize a simple formula with a villainous personality for the sake of
entertainment).<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My new “Expected
Goals Last 30 Days” model has me very excited after its first week in action.
Granted, all its profit came from over/under, losing a small amount on
moneylines and pucklines, but its bet selection might be far too conservative,
needing re-calibration. The potential is there. It took a significant loss on
favorites +1.5 goals, and lost both fave -1.5 bets, but produced a respectable
profit on moneylines (fave, dog, home, road). Road moneylines were a terrible
bet to make this week, but xGL30 still turned a nice profit (Betting Venues did
too in an otherwise terrible week for that model).<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">This was the best
week for home teams since week one, winning an astonishing 65% of the games (10
teams won 2 home games, the Avs won 3). That was a 50-50 just one week ago.
Hosts won 51.3% of home games last season 2nd quarter, so it’s not like this
should have been expected. Well, there were a higher-than-normal assembly of
teams who play better in front of their own fans having 2-3 opportunities (like
Vancouver, Minnesota, Arizona, Colorado, etc). The decline of -1.5 pucklines
continued, but nearly broke even on the home side. The visitors bore the brunt
of the difficulty this week.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">The other category
that came creeping back this week was overs, as the early December unders run
has dissipated. Thankfully my team of algorithms handled this nicely and a
majority posted a strong profit for the week. It was a little disappointing to
see Game Sum and Megatron near the bottom of the list, with both getting a tire
pump here last week for their strong performance. Both make decisions based on
which pick was more profitable in the last 30 days, and overs haven’t been
particularly fruitful. Whereas those who make decisions independent of recent
profitability all performed admirably.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Overs went 26-23-2
this week as there was a significant increase in goal scoring by nearly a half
goal per game, making it the highest scoring week since early November. My
algorithms tend to thrive in a steady-state environment, so it’s a little
confusing how well they performed this week, but variance does the most damage
at the team level. As long as the individual teams are behaving in a
predictable manner, they tend to do well. Below is the graphic with all their
performances, and even “Full Season Average” pulled a profit. The lesser
performers have been dropped from my picks graphics. The “OU Council” will be a
meritocracy going forward. You need to earn and sustain your spot, but I’ll
continue tracking every model.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimEmGQUTJgTjErZMgxmizOmkJF2gDC4x_hih-H9pKY1vFReMAGrbiJyo7RhUHy1zlpNbUmDqXdA4XozeBzDu0kYfNnFKgB2eggtqNsS94SXsaHbPE1dZ_DevlXcLdZuc84vdujsdYzTkHPULk9HPJnmKMSBXDRIg8r3Is_42tv8gAuTlQl6zXM7ykaugVo/s317/wk10B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="317" data-original-width="289" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimEmGQUTJgTjErZMgxmizOmkJF2gDC4x_hih-H9pKY1vFReMAGrbiJyo7RhUHy1zlpNbUmDqXdA4XozeBzDu0kYfNnFKgB2eggtqNsS94SXsaHbPE1dZ_DevlXcLdZuc84vdujsdYzTkHPULk9HPJnmKMSBXDRIg8r3Is_42tv8gAuTlQl6zXM7ykaugVo/s1600/wk10B.png" width="289" /></a></div></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">While most of my
models betting wins and losses struggled, it was a different story for my harem
of over/under algorithms. I’m on fire with my over/under picks in the 2nd
quarter of the season, getting closer to wiping out that embarrassing deficit
from Q1. I’m following my primary algorithm (aka OU Prime) in at least 90% of
games, but am lagging behind because of poor performance when betting double
(which Optimus doesn’t do) and when disagreeing. But the big winner in week 10
was “Betting Goalies” which is only as good as my prediction of each goalie’s
starting probability. It had a bad first week, but is now running a profit for
its short lifespan.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Another new model
was born yesterday (discussed in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-11-nhl-betting-preview"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Week 11 Preview</span></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">) called “Goalies
Last 30 Days” who is also going to make over/under picks, and should pick the
same outcome as Betting Goalies more often than not. The two will have
substantial covariance, but whichever proves to better will be my lead advisor
on goalie-based over/under picks. My old primary algorithm (avg goals last 5
games) had a good week after a bad first quarter, as it tends to cash in
whenever there is a scoring surge (which did happen in December 2021 the same
month it was born).<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">New York Islanders</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$1,016<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’ll admit to having some difficulty getting a read on
the New York Islanders this season but my foresight was effectively tuned in
week 10, or at least my over/under algorithms had them figured out (generating
70% of my Isles profit). Their overs went 4-0, which is not a natural state for
this Islander team whose unders went 47-38-3 last season. They still get good
goaltending but suddenly the power play is burying a few more tucks, and their
overs are on a 13-3 run. For whatever reason the Sportsbooks have been either
too slow to react or don’t believe it’s real.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second-best team of the week was the Anaheim Ducks,
which is a bandwagon I boarded early but departed once the nosedive began.
Looking at the game log yielded an interesting result, as I’ve hit all my
Anaheim bets for their last 5 games, which includes betting them to win and
lose, over and under. The was a push in there. That Ducks streak extends into
last week, and possibly tonight if they cover +1.5 against Detroit (they’re up
4-2 in the 3rd period).<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Chicago Blackhawks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$630<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Chicago Blackhawks were my single worst over/under
team in a week that produced an impressive bounty of OU winnings. Betting their
wins and losses wasn’t a major problem, given that I completely stayed away
from pucklines -1.5 goals (and they would have been my number one target after
the Sharks resurgence). The Hawks have lost 8 of their last 10 games and
haven’t been covering +1.5 goals all that often. It might be getting safer to
bet their opponents -1.5 goals, and I’m hoping that only improves as we get
closer to the trade deadline and they start shipping out pieces. Post-deadline
doesn’t always boost the favorites though.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Winnipeg Jets were my second worst team of the
week. I was aggressively shorting both Detroit and Winnipeg after losing Dylan
Larkin and Kyle Connor last weekend, two of the most valuable players in the
league. Both teams exceeded my expectations, but the Jets did more damage to my
bottom line by defeating Colorado and Los Angeles (after losing to San Jose).
Not to mention that their unders had been on fire before their offensive
explosion against the Kings and Avs. It’s hard for me to believe that collapse
is not imminent given the situation, but Hellebuyck might be making his case
for the Vezina and one of those solves a lot of problems.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 10 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></u></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvqVixEE2hg8GhqRr1GsMm9oaadO_MiefLnrBaQ_hNtSgfFnpU5Wve5Y3i2Q-0gfJuxw_PU-tP0zPc3ZR0bfb9b6Wrpkt79ETN3f5BKlKuxdpDbOn8_3fXnAf8GaqPnjqFr1GATFCr8ErSHBuG2WohuZy3ZD19s_l9U1DaQq-iBqHgVAxGMZx1FpileYqm/s561/Wk10C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="322" data-original-width="561" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvqVixEE2hg8GhqRr1GsMm9oaadO_MiefLnrBaQ_hNtSgfFnpU5Wve5Y3i2Q-0gfJuxw_PU-tP0zPc3ZR0bfb9b6Wrpkt79ETN3f5BKlKuxdpDbOn8_3fXnAf8GaqPnjqFr1GATFCr8ErSHBuG2WohuZy3ZD19s_l9U1DaQq-iBqHgVAxGMZx1FpileYqm/w400-h230/Wk10C.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A new feature in my category results is making a
distinction between “mild” or “big” for either dog or favorite. The border
between the two is +150 and -150 on the moneyline (also two teams at -110 are
both considered mildly favored). You can see from the above that dogs +1.5 and
over/under carried me into profitability this week. My moneyline performance is
somewhat unnerving, as is taking a substantial loss shorting back-to-backs ML.
Though Carolina deserves a majority blame for that one.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfyyWljpFQC5eGnLTdjNhHsfG0911jJxBzorneQ8NrU-cl0dM5WujnaiTrnzBfUJ0Y76n5tDziuvNTI3FN0j506DtxXCd6K-CfSRKrJGJnJIOqBBNCoEadfnk-aqwpbFpbxDSZYRuVE3wfcEcUI29gplGZBOb6ftX7pLmRr0B0_QxsMg80xeKVUqfj6YJv/s660/Wk10D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="632" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfyyWljpFQC5eGnLTdjNhHsfG0911jJxBzorneQ8NrU-cl0dM5WujnaiTrnzBfUJ0Y76n5tDziuvNTI3FN0j506DtxXCd6K-CfSRKrJGJnJIOqBBNCoEadfnk-aqwpbFpbxDSZYRuVE3wfcEcUI29gplGZBOb6ftX7pLmRr0B0_QxsMg80xeKVUqfj6YJv/w383-h400/Wk10D.png" width="383" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For curiosity’s sake tonight I decided to check how
the 2nd quarter results are looking (since Nov 27), and the Washington Capitals
are my #1 worst team to bet on and my #1 worst team to bet against, dropping to
#27 in my full season profit ranks. Vancouver and Nashville were two of top 3
teams to bet on, and they play tomorrow. Scroll down for my pick…<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig5v8VwW1Xlq_Agow1E-ity7uq9fVD7AgvrzbcsOCTgUXRncgYMIZxTEO05Efs_o9ntjJVRXPHQX7Bcsk5MKafcgNftr6_puPAGUmm15EzgiT4XMkGWc75bWeuMZG6MWe15fzs59zNIjD58pPPNdjUQ-cIn7_mXsgFCOK2d7zd7fIl1qfS6BEwY4hmfgsx/s591/wk10E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="428" data-original-width="591" height="290" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig5v8VwW1Xlq_Agow1E-ity7uq9fVD7AgvrzbcsOCTgUXRncgYMIZxTEO05Efs_o9ntjJVRXPHQX7Bcsk5MKafcgNftr6_puPAGUmm15EzgiT4XMkGWc75bWeuMZG6MWe15fzs59zNIjD58pPPNdjUQ-cIn7_mXsgFCOK2d7zd7fIl1qfS6BEwY4hmfgsx/w400-h290/wk10E.png" width="400" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br />
</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These Profitability Rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new rankings will be
based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuWch6mLq6Md3XLXxhmy4vVhqcAjZaJ-8v1lsHwZjI4l_CqEWmSaXUUcd5egtyiYTOkKQqgYeANhraAI6e2bzW58wso3PSmlLYOWFgL8DoQigZHROYw6cDw4-n6m_Lk5uiZeZqao5w1-PHlckpz009cL-k36VhyOPaQU9nlS4dHZ6_uTtGbNW1TgZ2foaU/s714/wk10PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuWch6mLq6Md3XLXxhmy4vVhqcAjZaJ-8v1lsHwZjI4l_CqEWmSaXUUcd5egtyiYTOkKQqgYeANhraAI6e2bzW58wso3PSmlLYOWFgL8DoQigZHROYw6cDw4-n6m_Lk5uiZeZqao5w1-PHlckpz009cL-k36VhyOPaQU9nlS4dHZ6_uTtGbNW1TgZ2foaU/s16000/wk10PR.png" /></a></div><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Sorry that there have been a few new models added recently that have
not yet been added to my “model explainer”, but it’s on my to-do list. Megatron
is just a villain who steals from other models based on profitability last 30
days.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Some news of note in my model week 10 results, this
was an awful week for my Shorting Travel model, which was previously among the
best performing by rate of return (it only bets 14% of games). The entire
problem was it only bet pucklines -1.5 goals, which had an awful week as a
category, bringing down a few of my models in the process. “Shorty” only made 7
bets this week and went 0-7, and 6 of those were -1.5 goals. The big problem
here is these crashing pucklines are not normal. History is not repeating in a
predictable manner. The issue here might be parity. So many teams tanked for
Bedard, that they don’t want to tank again or the attendance might tank with
them.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I could re-program all my models to tune out pucklines
-1.5 goals, but these are not using real money. Even though I’m sharing their
puckline picks with you, I’m also telling you that the category is crashing. If
you are skipping my analysis and going right to the picks graphics to tail my
models, sorry if you’ve had a rough December. I tried to warn you. Instead of
changing all to avoid pucklines, I installed safety protocols to limit bet
sizes on bets that aren’t working, and may expand those from teams to entire
categories if the bleeding doesn’t stop. The safety protocols were engaged
starting with my Sunday picks email sent exclusively to my subscribers
Saturday.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbCbyCndM-Cnc2XB6UG84hED4OnjXA4a2tEhj0PSKVAUe2aC4Y-1UF9VHGaFOgzsRAAygzEtJ2ubTvDeq2BjLfyc8c8T-Jrdgvt72TNYPyMP39M0I4r6MZqrQFSiuMuNUC1ARiVLzrVZdC7BtkItWPcbV3xLYjTOPf8H-F0yCh3GEQMGMbVZOrYhqnS5Ch/s872/wk10F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="872" data-original-width="728" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhbCbyCndM-Cnc2XB6UG84hED4OnjXA4a2tEhj0PSKVAUe2aC4Y-1UF9VHGaFOgzsRAAygzEtJ2ubTvDeq2BjLfyc8c8T-Jrdgvt72TNYPyMP39M0I4r6MZqrQFSiuMuNUC1ARiVLzrVZdC7BtkItWPcbV3xLYjTOPf8H-F0yCh3GEQMGMbVZOrYhqnS5Ch/w534-h640/wk10F.png" width="534" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Above is the category chart for me, betting $100 on
everything, and my most interesting models. There are too many models now to
show them all (these reports are already too long), so I’ll share the most
relevant or interesting. Game Sum and Megatron look at a lot of the same data,
and for as bad as pucklines -1.5 goals was this week, both these models did a
respectable job betting them. Game Sum took a much bigger loss on road
moneylines, but otherwise would have had a decent week. My belief that Game Sum
should eventually work has not wavered. It’s up to me to find the optimal bet
selection. The data is strong.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-35822441315952188732023-12-19T20:09:00.000-08:002023-12-19T20:09:35.012-08:002023/24 Week 11 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 11 is here and I've got a few streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week is a tie between Detroit and Minnesota, the
only 4-game teams in a shortened week pre-Christmas. This is an interesting
schedule because everyone else plays exactly 3 games. The busy nights are going
to be VERY busy, so while the Wild play 4 times, 3 of them are on busy nights. So,
you may have to bench your Wild streamers on those days, whereas the Red Wings
play 3 times on light nights, but tougher opponents. The Leafs play 3 on busy
nights, but have the most ideal opponents for scoring.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">If you scroll down to the
bottom, you can view my strength of schedule graphic and the final watchlist
used to compile this report, including their upcoming schedules. I made a
change this week, and the strength of schedule is now using last 30 days
instead of the full season. Smaller sample size, but a fresher sample. My blog
has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging
everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on
Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat
to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company.
Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published,
and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links
so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Nikolaj Ehlers</b>, Wpg, (46% Yahoo ownership): My number one add
for the week ahead wherever I can find him is Nikolaj Ehlers, who is now top
line and top power play with Kyle Connor injured. After a slow start to the
season, the winger is picking up steam scoring 9 PTS in his last 6 GP, adding
17 shots and a +11. Connor won’t be coming back anytime soon, so Ehlers might
be worth considering as a longer-term hold, certainly if this production
continues. Ehlers doesn’t hit much, but one option who does is <b>Tom Wilson</b>.
I’m still a little confused why he’s only 60% owned on Yahoo, unless 40% of
leagues don’t count hits and shots. Tommy is playing 1st line, 1st power play
in Washington with 9 PTS, 42 shots and 34 hits in his last 12 GP.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Lucas Raymond</b>, Det, (64% Yahoo ownership): If you added Raymond
on my advice last week, you may as well let it ride for the 4-game week with 3
on light nights. My initial recommendation was made before the Larkin injury,
but he still managed 2 PTS in 3 GP without Larkin. Daily Faceoff lists him 2nd
line with Veleno-DeBrincat and top power play, as the dual-eligible winger has
scored 13 PTS in his last 14 GP with 33 shots. That sophomore slump appears to
have passed. If you care less about PTS and more about shots and hits, <b>Owen
Tippett</b> has been a machine in Philly. In his last 14 GP, Tippett has
amassed 50 shots and 32 hits, with 8 PTS (2 on the power play).<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Charlie Lindgren</b>, Wsh, (41% Yahoo ownership): Charlie Lindgren is
currently on one of my fantasy rosters, and I’m faced with a difficult decision
now that <b>Elvis Merzlikins</b> is off IR. I’m not keeping both beyond maybe a
few days. Lindgren has a .918 SV% last 30 days, while Elvis is .916. Washington
will be facing higher scoring opponents (average last 30 days), so you could do
well with either option, depending on availability. As least Washington has an
extra game this weekend and one light night next week compared to the Blue
Jackets zero. <b>Alex Lyon</b> was strongly considered for this spot with
Detroit playing 4 times, but they’re rocking a 3-headed monster right now
(Husso sucks but gets paid the most so they keep rolling him out). Lyon should
start 1, maybe 2.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Jake Walman</b>, Det, (44% Yahoo ownership): Jake Walman might not
be the hottest defenseman available on waivers, but he certainly has the most
agreeable schedule. He’s going to be among the most added players Mon-Wed-Fri
just because his team will be playing. Walman has scored 6 PTS in his last 12
GP, playing on the top defensive pairing with Moritz Seider and the second
power play unit. The shot and hit numbers are indeed underwhelming the last 2
weeks, and if that’s something important to you, <b>Mattias Ekholm</b> is even
more widely available (less flexible schedule and 1 fewer game), scoring 6 PTS
in his last 13 GP with 31 shots and 26 hits. Oilers are on fire right now.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Evan Rodrigues</b>, Fla, (57% Yahoo ownership): E-Rod flanks
one of the league’s best lines with Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart, with
the knock on Rodrigues being that he doesn’t join them on the top power play
unit (instead playing PP2). The Panthers have a decent schedule (Vegas is the
only bummer offensively) and do play Monday. One of E-Rod’s best features is
eligibility all 3 forward positions, scoring 6 PTS in his last 6 GP with 12
shots and 5 hits. If you’d like an extra light night game instead, the Seattle
Kraken had a few nominees for this report, namely <b>Oliver Bjorkstrand</b> (12
PTS (4 PP) 50 shots last 15 GP) and Eeli Tolvanen (11 PTS (2 PP) 38 shots, 33
hits last 15 GP). Oliver is more widely available.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Tom Wilson, Elvis Merzlikins, Mattias Ekholm, Owen
Tippett, Oliver Bjorkstrand<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Drake Batherson, Alex Lyon, Lucas Raymond, Nick Schmaltz, Owen
Power<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 25%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Gabe Vilardi</b>, Wpg, (18% Yahoo ownership): A player joining
Ehlers and Scheifele on Winnipeg’s top line and top power play is Gabe Vilardi,
who has returned from injury and helping to fill the void left in Connor’s
wake. Vilardi has amassed 6 PTS in his last 6 GP, with 14 shots and a +6. He
offers eligibility at both center and wing, playing 3 times on light nights.
I’m almost considering adding him in my standard leagues where Ehlers is owned.
<b>Joe Veleno</b> in Detroit has received a big ice time boost in Larkin’s
absence, centering DeBrincat and Raymond (as well as the top power play). He
was ice cold offensively before his recent outburst (3 PTS in his last 3 GP
since Larkin’s injury, averaging over 22 minutes per game).</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Ivan Prosvetov</b>, Col, (12% Yahoo ownership): Something is wrong
with Alexandar Georgiev and his back-up has started 2 of the last 3 games
(coming in relief between starts). Prosvetov is suddenly sporting a .930 SV% in
his last 5 games, and should be in line to get more starts while Georgiev works
out his problems. Avs play twice this weekend and 3 times next week (all busy
nights, all winnable) and Ivan is widely available. If you don’t have room on
the busy nights, <b>Joey Daccord</b> in Seattle offers a little more
flexibility with 2 light nights. Philipp Grubauer is on IR and Daccord is
suddenly sporting a .935 SV% in his last 5 games. <b>Martin Jones</b> could
also be in line for more Toronto starts with Samsonov struggling.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Michael Rassmussen</b>, Det, (6% Yahoo ownership): The absence of
Larkin-Perron has created opportunity for other players to step up, and Michael
Rasmussen is among them. J.T Compher should be returning next game and Daily
Faceoff has him centering the top line with Patrick Kane and Rasmussen (who is
eligible at both wing and center). He’s not on the power play, but that hasn’t
stopped him from collecting 5 goals and 8 PTS in his last 7 GP, with 15 shots
and a +5. He’s got 3 light nights in a busy night kinda week. That’s why you
might also be interested in his teammate <b>Daniel Sprong</b>, who does play on
the Wings 2nd PP unit, scoring 10 PTS (3 on the PP) with 33 shots in his last
14 GP.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Marco Rossi</b>, Min, (9% Yahoo ownership): Sadly, Marco Rossi is no
longer centering the top line with Kirill Kaprizov, but line 2 with Mats
Zuccarello is still decent. Rossi does center the 2nd power play, scoring 9 PTS
with 23 shots in his last 12 GP. Just make sure you have room to fit him into
your starting line-up given that the Wild will be playing 3 of their 4 games on
busy nights and Rossi is listed at center-only (which can make him more
difficult for some to roster). If you’d rather have a top power play winger, <b>Kyle
Palmieri</b> is on the red-hot top unit with the Islanders. In his last 14 GP,
Palmieri has scored 10 PTS (6 on the PP) with 29 shots and a +3. Isles play 1
light night, and 2 busy.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Jake McCabe</b>, Tor, (11% Yahoo ownership): The Maple Leafs
have the best schedule in terms of average opponent goals against last 30 days,
but there weren’t many options under 65% owned that were interesting enough to
make my final list. Jake McCabe was the only Leaf who survived the watchlist
pruning process, thanks to scoring 5 PTS in his last 6 GP with 18 hits (albeit
only 7 shots). He even has a point on the power play and is averaging 21:31 of
ice time in the last 2 weeks. Another option with a very similar stat profile
is <b>Josh Manson</b> in Colorado, who has 6 PTS, 15 shots, 14 hits in his last
7 GP. Neither of these players have appeared on many if any fantasy reports of
mine the last year or two. Congrats to both for pinging my radar this week.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Joe Veleno, Joey Daccord, Daniel Sprong, Kyle
Palmieri, Josh Manson<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Robby Fabbri, Martin Jones, Ross Colton, Alex Kerfoot, Alexander
Romanov <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT_YJQsJV_ZwztXFWQM5AWETC-aE1vaIa3HK78kcLBAQF-cUK2-tnExaO34ahmpUhaGSgMEGV-RPlOoburPg9WyA9XxUd5NQmfrjo-K0KNT0Wjt-U6MUH7i5Ri3OUIFdPX6MslA7b8H0YOEhtYWC002q9b-ES9N4dN7ozNUeOJ8I-0EbrCct6bA8zt0mJZ/s737/Week11sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT_YJQsJV_ZwztXFWQM5AWETC-aE1vaIa3HK78kcLBAQF-cUK2-tnExaO34ahmpUhaGSgMEGV-RPlOoburPg9WyA9XxUd5NQmfrjo-K0KNT0Wjt-U6MUH7i5Ri3OUIFdPX6MslA7b8H0YOEhtYWC002q9b-ES9N4dN7ozNUeOJ8I-0EbrCct6bA8zt0mJZ/w498-h640/Week11sched.png" width="498" /></a></div><br /></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4xn9Ce5Ck6wLgPmPqK_AdNSHvos5zmi7KYPMa9dUbo86n6MZcHUEJEbdotFTKw-oud0Zk7LAi65iUyvGejjTvSh-ViAvnLfICP9xF-Hx94-GsQebPCPWj5fmQKkVrHIdyhvjkjvBjZXUtg89wOM7h3hAoOFsGpkdro87RnTUMmiLppDQh4w5LT2aChwo/s1120/week11watch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1120" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjr4xn9Ce5Ck6wLgPmPqK_AdNSHvos5zmi7KYPMa9dUbo86n6MZcHUEJEbdotFTKw-oud0Zk7LAi65iUyvGejjTvSh-ViAvnLfICP9xF-Hx94-GsQebPCPWj5fmQKkVrHIdyhvjkjvBjZXUtg89wOM7h3hAoOFsGpkdro87RnTUMmiLppDQh4w5LT2aChwo/w400-h316/week11watch.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-91014236504745996432023-12-11T18:37:00.000-08:002023-12-11T18:37:04.523-08:002023/24 Week 9 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week nine of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books as we are now 2 weeks into the second quarter of the schedule.
For a full breakdown of the first quarter, check out my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/first-quarter-nhl-betting-report"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">First Quarter Report</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> published on Friday, breaking down each of the 32 teams, how me and my
models performed betting their games. This was my best week in a while,
sticking mostly to betting moneylines and pucklines +1.5 goals. Favorites -1.5
continued their downward slide, but didn’t bring me along for the ride. My primary
OU (aka OU Prime) algorithm had a decent week, but a new model on the block
might become my new primary.<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you’d like to
read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a
330-page book outlining the results from every angle. <span style="background: white; color: black;">What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the </span></span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Economists-Betting-Prospectus-ebook/dp/B0BL2PSXCQ/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Amazon
store</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been moved to Substack this
season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free
subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned
that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and
ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification
each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the
algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.<br /><span style="background: white; color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXUC5PT0gyJySpOIYs1NVwEOtZBZARWjt07-3jGIn3uOQkwB00AXiqzsQdYVf6KuOLeYz-eoHjNsM2i3jI7Eae2IeXEh7LtiW0fkHXZCbodJHPz225FGGt64Mtu4Rbj3m8vf2CAAFaW8R1VKiCPb7tHJPvXcWBiphGDJWaeggMQ6Rm8PbLEX_hzjOg9mi/s262/Wk9A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="262" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgzXUC5PT0gyJySpOIYs1NVwEOtZBZARWjt07-3jGIn3uOQkwB00AXiqzsQdYVf6KuOLeYz-eoHjNsM2i3jI7Eae2IeXEh7LtiW0fkHXZCbodJHPz225FGGt64Mtu4Rbj3m8vf2CAAFaW8R1VKiCPb7tHJPvXcWBiphGDJWaeggMQ6Rm8PbLEX_hzjOg9mi/s1600/Wk9A.png" width="262" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Renovations continue for my betting spreadsheet, and
it might be another two weeks before those are completely finished. The biggest
news was that my Tailing History portfolio received a significant overhaul to
the sample its analyzing. You can read all about it in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-10-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week 10 Preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, but the short version is that it now looks only at the two previous
seasons (tossing the 2021 data because that schedule was fraudulent), it looks
backwards and forward by 7 “days of the season” which will also include the
past 7 days of the current season.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The “Tails” you knew and loved no longer exists. It
was down more than $7,000 on the week by Friday, in a sudden catastrophic
collapse. Frankly, I never expected it to post profit for the entire first
quarter of the schedule, its purpose was to measure the replicability of
history to determine if the data provided in my previews has any relevance. Well,
it did in the first quarter, then fell off a cliff. Is there a lesson to be
learned there? Most of its biggest gains were in week one, then it mostly broke
even for the rest of the quarter. Maybe early in the schedule is the most
replicable, then chaos ensues by December.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m completely overhauling how my data is saved,
sorted and displayed. In the past, my historical data from previous seasons was
in a separate worksheet that I would check when there was a hypothesis that
needed testing, but now the historical DB has been merged with the current
season. The new system is far more efficient with less moving parts that can
lead to errors. I’m drawing all my data from the same worksheet. I do need to apologize;
all these renovations are happening so fast that there will be mistakes. Please
just be patient, because this all setting up for a very exciting second half.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There will be extensive error checking needed to
filter out any formulaic mistakes, but the good news is that the old info
summary worksheets were not deleted, the new ones were built from scratch. So
as the new data comes online, I can easily check if it matches the old data. As
I’ve said many times, I’m very paranoid about errors and run regularly
scheduled diagnostic testing to make sure everything is right. The new system
will allow for much faster and easier analysis. I’m also going to have category
charts by day of season that update as soon as new information is added. I’ll
be able to visit a single worksheet that has several charts, and just browse if
there’s any trend data worth sharing.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Anaheim Ducks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$823<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Anaheim Ducks were one of my bandwagon teams early
in the schedule when they were exceeding expectations, but alas, they have been
regressing to the mean for the last few weeks. This is not a good stage of the
season traditionally for John Gibson, but the offense is also struggling to
score. All my Ducks profit this week was from betting them to lose and unders.
Anaheim is 9-1 in their last 10 and have lost all my confidence, especially
with McTavish and Zegras battling injuries. But losing confidence on one side
does increase confidence in the opposing team. That will continue until it
ceases to be profitable.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Winnipeg Jets were my second-best team of the
week, mostly from betting them to win and unders. However, they were dealt a
serious blow losing Kyle Connor Sunday night to a knee injury, and their
offense is really going to miss him if the injury is long-term. I’m already
taking San Jose ML tomorrow (Sharks were also among my best teams this week),
and will need a little line value if I’m taking them in Connor’s absence.
Thankfully Winnipeg managed to fight back and win that Ducks game, because I
had a max bet on Jets ML (shared in an email exclusively to my free subscribers
Saturday).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">New York Rangers</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$909<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The New York Rangers successful western road trip
followed by continued victories without Shesterkin or Fox inflated my
confidence in their ability. That confidence was only reinforced when Igor
returned and played well. Betting the Rangers to win led me down a dark path
marked by red ink. Not only did they lose, they lost be a combined score of
10-2 to the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals, who haven’t exactly been
powerhouses lately. That made me feel safe betting Kings to win Sunday, but
that was the game Rangers won. This is a team that often makes me feel stupid
for both betting them to win and lose.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Tampa Bay Lightning were my second worst team of
the week, thanks mostly to their 4-0 victory against Dallas, who had blown them
out the previous game. That’s the type of situation where I should have known
Vasilevskiy would be back in net on a mission, but hadn’t seen any evidence of
his return to form. Shutting out Dallas is evidence he’s at least capable of
showing flashes of himself. How he sustains that over the rest of the schedule
remains to be seen, but if he’s going to be good, it’s hard to bet a
significant amount of money on a Lightning opponent.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 9 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 21.3333px; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip4_F1pujMFvTTqEgetSwhpIaGu3C6eltJOIkLvq1NkKNq8y3MoTz0bciJw6ISv9XYsOJ6S26kGHOjkiS-R0tq82tptBn8CA-o9qotOvMyX9E4h9GffjQzJDMyrFYFmkHdxXY2GDqSlygj2fuAvRKqNLfejdN2HfPCimcP6OACy2T0hIc_A0_5Do3q5uPp/s569/wk9B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="569" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip4_F1pujMFvTTqEgetSwhpIaGu3C6eltJOIkLvq1NkKNq8y3MoTz0bciJw6ISv9XYsOJ6S26kGHOjkiS-R0tq82tptBn8CA-o9qotOvMyX9E4h9GffjQzJDMyrFYFmkHdxXY2GDqSlygj2fuAvRKqNLfejdN2HfPCimcP6OACy2T0hIc_A0_5Do3q5uPp/w400-h194/wk9B.png" width="400" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 13pt; text-align: left;"> </span></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was a strong week for road dog moneylines and
unders, but my own best categories were very different with a nice profit on
both dogs and favorites ML. My Tailing History model might have collapsed from
bad data in my preview last week, but one nugget of history that repeated
itself, it was a good time to bet against teams back-to-backs. It also needs to
be said, if you ever see “bet back-to-backs” in my work, that ALWAYS means bet
against the tired team. Sometimes I will indeed bet on the tired team (usually
because the line swung too far, or some other circumstances), but not often do
I encourage others to do so. Mostly because I’ll feel stupid having done that
and they get blown out because they’re tired.</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil-K-2PTZnot7uSMOkqU6MUPUx_6MNetEj3t-1spNBoD5UKSOFutob9y2ELrdp834l9A-Z317kevApQFgBWyeCIOP33NR72SUGDoeCxaPnKomqjXMxDEKO0EgcZ8Va59G9B7QEOYmM3GQ1mZLMjMmkwMaM6vAzL41y5KwxEJD67Gow94qY5Yjvk_yWTwUK/s659/wk9C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="653" data-original-width="659" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEil-K-2PTZnot7uSMOkqU6MUPUx_6MNetEj3t-1spNBoD5UKSOFutob9y2ELrdp834l9A-Z317kevApQFgBWyeCIOP33NR72SUGDoeCxaPnKomqjXMxDEKO0EgcZ8Va59G9B7QEOYmM3GQ1mZLMjMmkwMaM6vAzL41y5KwxEJD67Gow94qY5Yjvk_yWTwUK/w400-h396/wk9C.png" width="400" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The LA Kings losing twice this week did hurt my
feelings, especially blowing a 3rd period lead against the Islanders. They lost
the next game to the Rangers, and that’s when NY finally got their act together
for a big win. It was my one blight on an otherwise great week. Betting
Pittsburgh to beat the Flyers and Pens +1.5 goals vs Tampa were my other big
losses. The San Jose Sharks recaptured first place in my profitability ranks
from LA, thanks to betting them +1.5 goals every game. Surprisingly their overs
went 3-0 mostly because the team has suddenly started scoring, even against a
few really good defensive teams.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd9DgGYl4g7KlhlczA-bU0xZLJqc6AKeO0JXHx6-DXgXM27KawJj2IWDjbDEopaQciKqeagd7ME9OiWucFRcahNHg3wkal0Mrh49E3cna2i-bZQB3NbLE60SNcdezjblq1d_R3hE9x-cdrja_Z1Lf_3QzpLMGI-Voof7IsMRWOMZ-eWKlIQWVpmlMAyGC-/s591/wk9D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="591" height="288" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd9DgGYl4g7KlhlczA-bU0xZLJqc6AKeO0JXHx6-DXgXM27KawJj2IWDjbDEopaQciKqeagd7ME9OiWucFRcahNHg3wkal0Mrh49E3cna2i-bZQB3NbLE60SNcdezjblq1d_R3hE9x-cdrja_Z1Lf_3QzpLMGI-Voof7IsMRWOMZ-eWKlIQWVpmlMAyGC-/w400-h288/wk9D.png" width="400" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: 21.3333px;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhleFI0eOtg1l9n1-5zDfNP1b2QrUzpDHH_XZ8VUypTT0y-oNBfsyH5XVvTYzNGAoanqPjgpTE5L8B2KTrG4aJ8SO9zJ5N7sUkvWPUjz3_PEb3DRk6wuQ5UCXh_CMT2J1tX3QcDzm_N6bhWfV1DvOP9JSymDVo72_l-Id-sTk9M0iDOkApXoF8Za41bBnNh/s714/Wk9PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhleFI0eOtg1l9n1-5zDfNP1b2QrUzpDHH_XZ8VUypTT0y-oNBfsyH5XVvTYzNGAoanqPjgpTE5L8B2KTrG4aJ8SO9zJ5N7sUkvWPUjz3_PEb3DRk6wuQ5UCXh_CMT2J1tX3QcDzm_N6bhWfV1DvOP9JSymDVo72_l-Id-sTk9M0iDOkApXoF8Za41bBnNh/s16000/Wk9PR.png" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Below is their table displaying results by category and ignoring their
advice more often paid off. All of them have been struggling in the 2nd
quarter, this is not a newly emerging trend, but those early struggles are why
I wasn’t listening as much this week.</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /><o:p></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0zo_BzwGMboymGJ6MeVZVdwS7T2C_MiICTa9hGkHLqddg_fOLInivQ3xPBroWu55VJE5BOKETQROynPrUXUw-3GfRzdfrybB_rfErP1B9RScEwGmZIcSi57C70tWB4oFst_OOBIdCb-wePADyb4M1_rjXN3APrRWlZfroohhXs8OwDiaxJGaVSK5Y4kcd/s793/wk9E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="793" height="426" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0zo_BzwGMboymGJ6MeVZVdwS7T2C_MiICTa9hGkHLqddg_fOLInivQ3xPBroWu55VJE5BOKETQROynPrUXUw-3GfRzdfrybB_rfErP1B9RScEwGmZIcSi57C70tWB4oFst_OOBIdCb-wePADyb4M1_rjXN3APrRWlZfroohhXs8OwDiaxJGaVSK5Y4kcd/w640-h426/wk9E.png" width="640" /></a></div></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My spreadsheet has
been modified to allow for unlimited models. Yeah, I may have said a couple
weeks ago that I’m done building new models for a while because my spreadsheet
was crowded, but instead just overhauled the spreadsheet. The new integration
in my spreadsheet merging 2023/24 with my historical database makes it really
easy to build and track new models. However, what is getting crowded are my
reports and previews analyzing and reporting on all the models. For example,
the full season average over/under model is in dead last, but I’m still sharing
all its choices in all my picks graphics.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">At some point in
the not-too-distant future, I’ll start dropping the worst performing models
from the information I’m sharing. I’ll continue tracking them because there’s
unlimited space for me to do so, but that doesn’t mean that they all need to be
shared with you in every game review. Take the newest model introduced
yesterday in my preview, Megatron, who is just a villainous thief who steals
from the other models. It got absolutely destroyed betting ML & PL, worse
than any model it stole from, but it was the best performing over/under
algorithm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Stealing was very effective
when it came to totals. It’s ML+PL picks are still shared below, because it
received surgery this morning.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">The Tailing
History results for the week are the updated version. I went back and
retroactively changed its picks starting Monday (also filling out Megatron in
the process), so that disaster described earlier is not reflected in the table above.
Betting Venues continued to struggle, but that began 3 weeks ago. On one hand,
I’m narrowing the gap between us which should restore my faith in my own decision-making
ability, but it was more fun when it was excelling. That reminds me, B.V
received an upgrade this week, as it now includes games from the current
season. Integrating current and past seasons made that very easy. If Betting Venues
continue to struggle, I may tweak its bet selection algorithm.</span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7EaTDovbCwOAcF2_2zDNCsbACm5Znx1sXDtxIw2AZUxP8axD93rpwc26OgSmjmJm6CfkXxu_o2ito_r4pFJf6VEGIyGbWoDeYdA7Oyoec5RwZTksXnuUqS_2wRuRvQmYLse9Q5GoM0LqTfNopbZd8-Z_CIeOqJ95B_WTGROxgnD3tm7okkFlBD0h-TWNK/s295/wk9F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="295" data-original-width="289" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7EaTDovbCwOAcF2_2zDNCsbACm5Znx1sXDtxIw2AZUxP8axD93rpwc26OgSmjmJm6CfkXxu_o2ito_r4pFJf6VEGIyGbWoDeYdA7Oyoec5RwZTksXnuUqS_2wRuRvQmYLse9Q5GoM0LqTfNopbZd8-Z_CIeOqJ95B_WTGROxgnD3tm7okkFlBD0h-TWNK/s1600/wk9F.png" width="289" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">OU Prime has the best record in the second quarter,
but Megatron had an excellent first week and I’m already starting to take its
advice more often. Hopefully it doesn’t deceive me, because I went 1 for 5 this
week when disagreeing with Prime (hence why my record was worse when I’m
following 90% of the time). I’m also interested seeing Game Sum creep up the
leaderboard, because it received an update recently, adding up betting every
over and under for all games in the last 30 days involving either of these teams
with that precise opening total. I’m not surprised at all to see that do well. Also,
if you use full season average goals to make over under bets, stop. It sucks by
this stage of the season.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-67291912187301576562023-12-11T18:27:00.000-08:002023-12-11T18:27:36.590-08:002023/24 Week 10 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 10 is here and I have a few potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the Colorado Avalanche, who plays the
most porous opponents and 3 times on light nights. The Islanders and Sabres
also have 3 games on light nights, while Arizona has 2, but the 2nd best low
quality of opponent. This was originally published Friday on my Substack site, and these Detroit recommendations were made before the Larkin injury, which downgrades my optimism about Fabbri and Raymond.<br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Drake Batherson</b>, Ott, (64% Yahoo ownership): Judging by the
Senators lines on Daily Faceoff, looks like they are trying to spread out their
scoring evenly among the top two, putting Batherson with Stutzle and Tarasenko.
He does also play first power play, scoring 13 PTS (4 on the PP) with 28 shots
and 13 hits in his last 11 GP. Batherson is available in one of my leagues and
I’m planning to make a claim sometime this weekend. If he’s not available in
your league, <b>Josh Norris</b> is 72% available playing line one power play
one with Brady Tkachuk. Norris has not been performing as well offensively,
netting just 5 PTS in his last 11 GP, but his 28 shots and 18 hits can provide
additional value if your league counts them.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Alex Lyon</b>, Det, (44% Yahoo ownership): Alex Lyon received an
honorable mention here last week when he was 25% owned and his stock continues
to climb, posting 4 wins and a .947 SV% in his last 5 games. The difference
this week is Detroit playing 4 games instead of 3. The Wings have been rotating
him and Husso, which if the rotation holds Lyon would get St Louis and
Philadelphia instead of Dallas and Carolina. Speaking of which, it’s been a
rocky season for <b>Pyotr Kochetkov</b>, posting an .886 SV% and 4 wins in his
last 9 games, but Carolina will be facing an easier schedule than Detroit, so
Kochetkov should provide you with more wins (unless Raanta has a great game and
establishes himself as the clear #1 option).<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Lucas Raymond</b>, Det, (59% Yahoo ownership): Lucas Raymond is
enjoying a bounce-back season playing most of it on line with Dylan Larkin,
also joining him on the top power play (looks like Kane’s addition has them
splitting into 2 even units). In his last 12 GP, Raymond has scored an
impressive 12 PTS (3 on the PP) with 28 shots and 12 hits. Maybe I’m a little
biased as a Red Wings fan who owns multiple Raymond rookie cards, but those
numbers are solid. Another top line, top power play option is <b>Elias Lindholm</b>
in Calgary. In his last 14 GP, Lindholm has contributed 9 PTS (only 1 on the
PP) with an impressive 39 shots and 13 hits. Might have the edge over Raymond
if your league counts shots.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Nick Schmaltz</b>, Ari, (34% Yahoo ownership): If the Arizona
Coyotes play 4 games, solid chance you’ll find my guy Nick Schmaltz on my
report. Not only do the Yotes play 4 (twice on light nights), but there are
some potentially porous opponents coming up (Buffalo twice and San Jose) with
Schmaltz still playing line one and power play one. The production in the last
30 days is a little lower than I’d like (8 PTS in last 13 GP) but 4 of those
PTS were on the power play and I love the schedule. If you’d rather someone
providing more shots and hits, his teammate <b>Lawson Crouse</b> has 7 goals in
his last 13 GP, adding 39 shots and 24 hits. Frankly if your league counts
shots and hits, does it even matter if he scores points?</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Owen Power</b>, Buf, (37% Yahoo ownership): The Buffalo Sabres
might have the toughest schedule of all the 4-game teams this week, but one
cool feature is 3 of their games are on light nights, which makes the widely
available Power easy to fit into your starting line-up. I’ll admit that the
stats are a little underwhelming last 30 days (5 PTS, 22 shots in 14 GP) and he
doesn’t get much power play time, but he plays Mon-Wed-Fri and I like that
flexibility (and availability). If you would rather grab a power play 1 option,
check out <b>Noah Hanifin</b> in Calgary (6 PTS, 24 shots last 14 GP). Daily
Faceoff currently has him on PP1, but he only plays on 1 light night (Monday)
so make sure there’s room in your line-up.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Josh Norris, Elias Lindholm, Lawson Crouse, Noah
Hanifin, Pyotr Kochetkov<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Eeli Tolvanen, Zach Werenski, Robert Thomas, Pyotr Kochetkov, Dawson
Mercer<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 25%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Robby Fabbri</b>, Det, (5% Yahoo ownership): If you can’t find Lucas
Raymond in any of your leagues, his linemate Robby Fabbri is 95% available and
also joins him on the top power play (which might become a 1A/1B situation). In
his last 11 GP, Fabbri has 12 PTS (3 on the power play) with 7 goals. The shot
and hit totals are low and Fabbri is an injury risk, but we’re only talking
about a short-term commitment while the iron is hot. If you do want more shots
and hits, <b>Blake Coleman</b> is a decent option in Calgary. In his last 14
GP, Coleman has 11 PTS with 39 shots and 16 hits. The Flames have him playing
on line two with Backlund and Huberdeau, who are capable of creating scoring
opportunities for Coleman.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">2) <b>Martin
Jones</b>, Tor, (12% Yahoo ownership): If you are wondering why Martin Jones is
among the most added goalies today, it’s because Joseph Woll suffered an injury
last night and might be out for a while. Samsonov has been dealing with issues
(both health and performance), so Jones might be starting most of Toronto’s 4
games this week. I’d be a little nervous starting him against the Rangers, but
the other opponents are beatable. He may very suck, but this is allegedly a Cup
contender and he might have this job for a while. Another injury opportunity
has opened in Calgary losing Markstrom. Either <b>Dan Vladar</b> or Dustin Wolf
might be decent streaming options available in 90% of Yahoo leagues.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Ross Colton</b>, Col, (21% Yahoo ownership): Injuries and illnesses
have led the Avalanche to split up Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, which
could just be temporary, but could also last into next week. The Avs have the
best schedule, including 3 light nights and the leakiest opponents. Most of the
guys you’d want are either owned or injured, so you need to target some 3rd
wheels. Daily Faceoff has Ross Colton and Miles Wood with Rantanen, <b>Jonathan
Drouin</b> and Logan O’Connor with Mackinnon. We’ll see who drops out when
Nichuskin is back, but Colton has 8 PTS, 28 shots and 19 hits in his last 15
GP, while Drouin has 7 PTS (2 on the power play) in his last 14 GP, with fewer
shots and hits than Colton.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Alex Kerfoot</b>, Ari, (12% Yahoo ownership): It was mentioned
earlier that Arizona a desirable upcoming schedule, and one Yote on a heater is
Alex Kerfoot, scoring 12 PTS (3 on the power play) in his last 13 GP with 18
shots. He might only be on the 3rd line, but he’s also on the top power play unit,
which is helping his elevate his production. His shot and hit totals do leave
much to be desired. If that’s something you’re seeking, you may want to
consider his teammate <b>Nick Bjugstad</b>. Nick is doing similar things as his
linemate Lawson Crouse, but is available in many more leagues. In his last 13
GP, Bjugstad has scored 8 PTS with 23 shots and 15 hits. Less impressive than
Crouse, but much more widely available.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Alexander Romanov</b>, NYI, (5% Yahoo ownership): Much for the
same reason that Owen Power was recommended in the previous section, Alex Romanov
plays on a 4-game team playing on 3 light nights. Romanov has the same point
total as Power in his last 30 days, but provides substantially more hits and
shots (28 shots and 17 hits in his last 14 GP), so he might even be a better
option if you want some peripheral stats. Romanov is 95% available. If you’d
like a higher scoring ceiling, you may want to try <b>J.J Moser</b> in Arizona,
scoring 7 PTS in his last 13 GP, but with fewer shots and hits. Arizona has the
2nd best schedule for opponent goal allowing and play on 2 light nights.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Blake Coleman, Jonathan Drouin, Nick Bjugstad, J.J
Moser, Dan Vladar<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Charlie Lindgren, Jake Neighbours, Gustav Nyquist, Jared
Spurgeon, Mason Marchment</span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-48837133204860342552023-12-04T21:16:00.000-08:002023-12-04T21:16:49.941-08:002023/24 Week 8 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week eight of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books and my slump continued Monday to Friday, performing better on the
weekend but still finishing the week in the red. Each bad performance only
motivates improvement, digging deeper into the numbers and doing a numerical
autopsy to ensure that structural mistakes are eliminated. I’m tracking so many
more numbers than I’m even looking at on a daily basis. Like my database with
the game logs dating back to October 2019 of every goalie that has started a
game in that span. That can be plugged directly into my Game Summary worksheet
to provide whatever relevant numbers my heart desires.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you’d like to
read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a
330-page book outlining the results from every angle. <span style="background: white; color: black;">What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the </span></span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Economists-Betting-Prospectus-ebook/dp/B0BL2PSXCQ/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Amazon
store</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been moved to Substack this
season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free
subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned
that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and
ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each
time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm
likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.</span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDef6Bo6FFSXSEgKJIJJoHpeBPvZdBCPXRM33DgO6zzt33E7i4IqwhFL2Xi_BQ-q6CArZ_ct8_llisMGJ6Xb1M8vmf-1HiNSqJhM_rhZbVMM89miBfinViPU89LjNyi57nDqx4uQwOMSJIsoYgfvqtPaG-X611-jVLqPSxuUEizBO8N98I89M_SC_iyzdw/s262/Wk8E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="262" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDef6Bo6FFSXSEgKJIJJoHpeBPvZdBCPXRM33DgO6zzt33E7i4IqwhFL2Xi_BQ-q6CArZ_ct8_llisMGJ6Xb1M8vmf-1HiNSqJhM_rhZbVMM89miBfinViPU89LjNyi57nDqx4uQwOMSJIsoYgfvqtPaG-X611-jVLqPSxuUEizBO8N98I89M_SC_iyzdw/s1600/Wk8E.png" width="262" /></a></div><br /></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Apologies for not sending out any picks emails to my
free subscribers this week, but my spreadsheet renovations were not ready in
time to give picks for Sunday. Even my weekly preview was a few hours later
than usual while the finishing touches were applied. There is still some error
checking left to be done (I’m relentlessly paranoid about checking my
numbers/formulas for errors) but the hard work is finished (at least until my
next big idea). You can read more about that work in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-9-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week 9 Preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">, which also has betting picks for all the Monday games.<br /> <o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The improvements to my Game Summary worksheet free up
substantial space to start adding as many new variables to my tracking as
desired. All my new models created too much clutter on the main page where my
decisions for each game are made. It was rebuilt from scratch and is better
than ever. This means that the information I can potentially provide in my
picks emails can also be expanded in several different ways. It can be plugged
directly into my historical database of 5000+ games with all the betting results
from each. For spreadsheet nerds out there, it’s all about indicator variables
(1 or 0) and the sum product function. SumProduct(x) is the secret behind my
extensive tracking where everything updates automatically when I type in the
final score of the game.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">One of the big things I’m setting up is the ability to
install “safety protocols” on my betting models, so if they have been losing
too much money betting Toronto -1.5 goals, there’s an easy way to limit the bet
size. I’m also now able to share exactly how each model has performed making
that exact same bet in the last 30 days. This was a bad week to bet anyone -1.5
goals, whether favorite or underdog, well at least until San Jose beat the
Devils 6-3 in New Jersey on Friday at +700 on the alt puckline. My Tailing
History portfolio did lay more money on favorites +1.5 goals this week, and
managed a decent profit, inspiring me to venture more into pucklines +1.5
myself, pumping the brakes on faves -1.5 mid-week.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It was favorites -1.5 goals that did most of the
damage to me and my models, as a few of the league’s best team really shook my
confidence. By the time the dust settled, this finished as a strong week for home
underdogs moneyline and that was one of my best categories as well. It wasn’t
something I was intentionally targeting, with significantly more invested in
favorites ML, which generated a small loss. The two teams making the biggest
contribution were Columbus and Arizona on home ice, with the Blue Jackets
beating Boston and Ottawa, while the Yotes beat Tampa and Colorado. Arizona
slayed two pretty big dragons in Mullett Arena this week, which is worth
noting.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Unders started the week on fire, but eventually cooled
off. I mostly just followed the advice of my primary algorithm (aka “OU
Prime”), performing poorly when ignoring its recommendation. It was the best of
all my over/under models this week, which helped boost my confidence in the one
I call “Prime”. This is my first season of over/under betting where I’m
tracking multiple different O/U models week to week. The current primary only
won the job last All-Star break and has competition for the title of most trusted
advisor, although the “Prime Line Value” algo I was pumping last week finished
in the middle of the pack for the last 7 days.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Chicago Blackhawks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$648<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Chicago Blackhawks have won twice in their last 8
games, as the team finds itself embroiled in controversy. Corey Perry was
booted of the team, it seems for getting hammered and making an ass of himself
at a team function, not getting Connor Bedard’s mom pregnant. Whatever the
reason, that’s not good for morale, and the product on the ice is suffering.
Although bad performance isn’t the whole reason they’re here, as OU Prime had a
good week betting their totals, which is assuring because this team had thrown
Prime a curveball with funky variance in recent weeks.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was among my better weeks betting the Toronto
Maple Leafs this season, but not thanks to any specific strategy. Prime did
well on their over/under, they beat a tired Florida team on a back-to-back,
then I bet the Bruins on Saturday because they were underdogs and Boston
offered the bigger payout. My other Leafs bet was a little more unusual for my
habits, putting a max bet on Toronto +1.5 goals at home vs Seattle at -525.
They won the game and the ML would have been better, but favorites +1.5 were
having a good week and I was feeling frisky.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">San Jose Sharks</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$747<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My “big short” of the San Jose Sharks hit another
setback this week, as I’ve finally reached the stage where I’m not longer willing
to make max bets on their opponents -1.5 goals. Watching them beat the New
Jersey Devils 6-3 was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but their victory
in Washington also pushed me in that direction. They had started covering +1.5
at home more often, but on the road against good teams appeared to be my safe
place, at least until week 8 slapped me in the face. After watching that Devils
debacle, I bet Sharks +1.5 goals vs the Rangers, which covered. NYR opened at
-535 ML, which was bonkers considering they played the night before and had to
fly home from Nashville.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second worst team of the week was the New York
Islanders. The Isles were in my dog house and I had big bets on Carolina and
Florida to win on home ice and New York pulled out wins as +154 and +136 dogs.
To make matters worse, their overs went 3-0, which few of my algorithms anticipated.
I’m still pretty sure this team isn’t very good, but they won by scores of 5-4
and 4-3, so they didn’t simply win by virtue of a Sorokin robberies. They
outscored good teams in close games. It did put a damper on my enthusiasm
betting them to lose, but also didn’t exactly give me the confidence to make
any big bets on Isles to win against anyone.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 3 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 17.3333px; font-weight: 700;"><br /></span></div></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCy4zlSpPQsIGXopfG8cT1HxQ4JPOzaf1wgx4ZfKctRQMlJ7y4S3LO6mhXg3ZgdaFcgsNmwwhuLvoOzGVR0fZ76su2sNu4XH8zkVjVcoobLHhU2IiwUJUhBghGMxJHWin5DLOjezmARQtth5KswX5F_Gd-vHQ_bMJoiHdciKsLTf3mmYN3ALKsJVoZXuqg/s553/wk8A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="553" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCy4zlSpPQsIGXopfG8cT1HxQ4JPOzaf1wgx4ZfKctRQMlJ7y4S3LO6mhXg3ZgdaFcgsNmwwhuLvoOzGVR0fZ76su2sNu4XH8zkVjVcoobLHhU2IiwUJUhBghGMxJHWin5DLOjezmARQtth5KswX5F_Gd-vHQ_bMJoiHdciKsLTf3mmYN3ALKsJVoZXuqg/w400-h199/wk8A.png" width="400" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Home dogs ML was the big winner this week, which it
was for me too, I just also did will on road dogs ML. I’m hoping that my
over/under slump is in the rearview mirror, posting a nice profit on unders,
which was one of the better bets overall. Although, they were up more than $1,000
2 or 3 days into the week, then overs surged back. I could look this up, but
I’m assuming the books started lowering the totals when unders started cashing
last week, so it’s entirely plausible that’s the reason overs ended the week
strong, smaller hurdles to clear. (I’m in a rush to get this posted).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqYf29280EWNWt1A05ArkQWauDemj2PrdBSJVOdQqsFkZADOz5e1FJ5z_y8LigrP_JhILkg41LYByhPl8YR38cqHzoCyGfrkrYpK-jsKksvUDHOT6XrEcY1y8t-MlQMGLKmsOEOCvmGdKEeq3kdCq9NRPEv_L2g3DAOjYGTNP4u7CvT4DRiH4B8_kejLBt/s659/wk8B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="659" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqYf29280EWNWt1A05ArkQWauDemj2PrdBSJVOdQqsFkZADOz5e1FJ5z_y8LigrP_JhILkg41LYByhPl8YR38cqHzoCyGfrkrYpK-jsKksvUDHOT6XrEcY1y8t-MlQMGLKmsOEOCvmGdKEeq3kdCq9NRPEv_L2g3DAOjYGTNP4u7CvT4DRiH4B8_kejLBt/w400-h295/wk8B.png" width="400" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was a bad week for me picking wins and losses for
the Washington Capitals, fortunately I crushed their unders so they were not
among my worst two teams. Still, I’m really confused who they are right now.
They can beat anybody or lose to anybody, and that can be a dangerous
combination. I’m a little surprised to see Colorado on my best teams to bet
against list, coming from their road games against Arizona and Los Angeles. Otherwise,
I’m not targeting them as a team to bet against. I just like the Kings more and
thought there was value on Arizona +154 at Mullett Arena. The Tampa Bay
Lightning were the best team to bet against overall this week, mine as well.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><br /></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9H2cyJq2za_W_t_BibCy0DVxOWYooFBCQLsfxq-TKhsoi5r4TAPt5nbO7MM5oqKUM8ZkbX3pqjPLd7GmmV1pkBraCiXIgi3XxN7QJSeghUIyG-Df8_CdUbVebxGJvMiXtUo7bZf4djweBdSRQEhjFomhmh2-BSHsb3iIxBl8dUxTM5s0272efgwsg1D3a/s681/wk8C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="681" height="396" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9H2cyJq2za_W_t_BibCy0DVxOWYooFBCQLsfxq-TKhsoi5r4TAPt5nbO7MM5oqKUM8ZkbX3pqjPLd7GmmV1pkBraCiXIgi3XxN7QJSeghUIyG-Df8_CdUbVebxGJvMiXtUo7bZf4djweBdSRQEhjFomhmh2-BSHsb3iIxBl8dUxTM5s0272efgwsg1D3a/w400-h396/wk8C.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 21.3333px; font-weight: 700; text-decoration-line: underline;"><br /></span></div><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbsHx8sLz2mpytSdC8m-znDFy9gaI9vWPULp4N14BbUb1zPvMppwtrIZEK_YonZhTnbQDPlK9ZeHdbnacF9fw_j0Czc66bQmLAWvfP3Lg6j4FB7rN5kwRvS8c-YpFag3MVG5N5RgzJ0GtVJuyjabtp8PayJWZ_ALFNuHBQ3NhzzG8Nx-eHp0aE5Hbn3fpa/s714/Wk8PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="577" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbsHx8sLz2mpytSdC8m-znDFy9gaI9vWPULp4N14BbUb1zPvMppwtrIZEK_YonZhTnbQDPlK9ZeHdbnacF9fw_j0Czc66bQmLAWvfP3Lg6j4FB7rN5kwRvS8c-YpFag3MVG5N5RgzJ0GtVJuyjabtp8PayJWZ_ALFNuHBQ3NhzzG8Nx-eHp0aE5Hbn3fpa/s16000/Wk8PR.png" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. My Game Sum model was re-programmed this weekend, but you can read
more about that in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-9-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sunday Preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Below is the chart showing how each model performed by category.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEDEOvn8-XN2mGjnA0T6kTquiqhiN9hg5UhTlelrv9grTuh5qhvjN7HLAYeMsiSCkRsxbhKEOaHWCDs5QB258d_CnrBG89lemVOrcUK3LWqjJsSdpm5I_9wYe1lR9bRLtSZM9Bu8EkR0HOjgQnFYTa8stZI_4ftD_wY8X9ygRtt1sOq_EQtn5bwy9kD_N4/s793/wk8D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="793" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEDEOvn8-XN2mGjnA0T6kTquiqhiN9hg5UhTlelrv9grTuh5qhvjN7HLAYeMsiSCkRsxbhKEOaHWCDs5QB258d_CnrBG89lemVOrcUK3LWqjJsSdpm5I_9wYe1lR9bRLtSZM9Bu8EkR0HOjgQnFYTa8stZI_4ftD_wY8X9ygRtt1sOq_EQtn5bwy9kD_N4/w400-h266/wk8D.png" width="400" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Tailing History and Betting Venues both struggled -1.5
goals, both favorites and underdogs, but that risk taking behavior was
responsible for their best weeks. Live by the sword, die by the sword. I
noticed my own results struggling -1.5 goals and pumped the brakes. Sharks
covering +1.5 in 5 of their last 6 helped push me in that direction. There will
be more about my model performance coming this week in my First Quarter Report,
including how each has performed with each team. That data is also easily accessible
by my Game Summary worksheet, so I know exactly where to be careful when taking
their advice.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My Game Sum model received an overhaul on Saturday,
but it was amusing that the new version had most of the same problems, it just
wasn’t losing as much money. I’ll take that as a victory. This isn’t
necessarily a model I’m expecting to be awesome, but its purpose is to tell me
what bet has been profitable with these teams in the current season (now last
30 days), given that my other models mostly ignore the current schedule. Its
voice has meaning even if it’s not profitable to follow exactly, because when
all 3 models like the same team, then we’re cooking with gas.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9rNDYkxYFixljtlcNnA91RJtYVfhwrqGeTqTyZGbuCRQySUoUjEzOPNYMR87QgYu49Zd_kvbTq3kUz1_dKzbtkOjZW4UWCDmNczPDjgSrTZEbKtMlsfm3_ty1nDV9On9Ni1Lcgbc9Zr2fr_j3CiYdtFq_2Lcokss306Y9zF1mLHsqjFAyQzmqn11WrfOF/s389/Wk8F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="254" data-original-width="389" height="209" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9rNDYkxYFixljtlcNnA91RJtYVfhwrqGeTqTyZGbuCRQySUoUjEzOPNYMR87QgYu49Zd_kvbTq3kUz1_dKzbtkOjZW4UWCDmNczPDjgSrTZEbKtMlsfm3_ty1nDV9On9Ni1Lcgbc9Zr2fr_j3CiYdtFq_2Lcokss306Y9zF1mLHsqjFAyQzmqn11WrfOF/s320/Wk8F.png" width="320" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It brings me comfort seeing OU Prime atop the
leaderboard. I would be up there with him but when 0-3 when ignoring his
advice. Prime Line Value delivered more profit, and has the lead full season.
Tails got destroyed and I knew that was going to happen because it was planning
to bet every over when the league was trending under. I could have overruled
the picks, but that’s not the point. The replicability of past seasons profit
shown in my weekly previews is the reason for Tails existing in the first place.
What if people made real bets with that data. That’s what we’re keeping score
with that model. Betting Goalies had a bad Sunday in day one of its life, but
I’m optimistic it will improve.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><br /></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-5279720583465851902023-12-04T21:09:00.000-08:002023-12-04T21:09:10.748-08:002023/24 Week 9 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 9 of the NHL season is here
and I have some potential streaming targets. The award for best schedule this
week goes to the Seattle Kraken, facing the most porous opponents with 2 games
on light nights. While Vegas plays a slightly tougher schedule, but 3 times on
light nights. This is a busy week, with 14 teams playing 4 games. Building my
watchlist for this took longer than usual. You can see that and my strength of
schedule graphic if you scroll down past my November Fantasy Awards, though you
may want to take a moment to read them, because there are some interesting
results.<br /></span><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial;"><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. I have
already started sending out bonus betting content exclusive to subscribers, and
may start a Sunday Fantasy Thoughts.<br /> </span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Eeli Tolvanen</b>, Sea, (51% Yahoo ownership): If you scroll
down to my November Fantasy Awards, you’ll notice Eeli Tolvanen is this month’s
“Stock Rocket” for biggest increase in Yahoo ownership the last month (he was
5% owned on Halloween). His value gets a boost in leagues that count hits and
shots, scoring 12 PTS (3 on the power play) in his last 14 games with 36 shots
and 25 hits. He’s eligible at both wings and Seattle has the best upcoming
schedule, playing leaky opponents (though Tampa-Minnesota may have stopped the
bleeding). Tolvanen plays 2nd line and top power play. The runner-up for Stock
Rocket was <b>Trevor Moore</b>, who also has a 4-game week ahead, but less
friendly. Moore is doing his damage on line 2 power play 2, collecting 11 PTS
(4 on the power play) in his last 11 GP with 27 shots.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Zach Werenski</b>, CBJ, (60% Yahoo ownership): Werenski was my top
recommended add last week, and the Blue Jackets play another 4 games. The
reason he’s lower down the list this week is Columbus has the toughest 4-game
schedule for opponent goal prevention. My enthusiasm has diminished slightly,
but I’m not planning to drop him from my team anytime soon. He does have 12 PTS
in his last 16 GP (he’s currently playing Ottawa as I’m writing this and has
assist, could finish with more). Great add too if your league counts shots. If
Zach is already owned in your league, <b>Torey Krug</b> is a decent option on
the top power play in St. Louis (4 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 7 GP) and
Blues play 3 times on light nights, although they do play Vegas twice which
isn’t ideal.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">3) <b>Robert
Thomas</b>, Stl, (57% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned previously, the St. Louis
Blues are going to playing on Monday-Wednesday-Friday which will make their
players very easy to fit into your starting roster. The downside being that the
first two are against Vegas who don’t give up many goals, but at least Robert
Thomas plays top line and top power play, scoring 18 PTS (4 on the power play)
in his last 15 GP with 33 shots (low shooting rates were a former problem for
him, but seems like he’s making a concerned effort to shoot more. He won’t give
you many hits though, but if that’s something you seek, try <b>Tom Wilson</b>
(who was plugged here last week too). He’s currently listed on line 1, power
play 1 with Ovie, with 4 goals, 26 shots, and 17 hits in his last 6 games.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Pyotr Kochetkov</b>, Car, (44% Yahoo ownership): After posting a
.909 SV% in 24 games last season, it’s been a bumpy first quarter for my guy
Pyotr. He has started the last 3 games in a row after Raanta was struck by
Lightning, but gave up 5 goals on 16 shots last game vs the Islanders (the
first two starts were quality). Raanta should get the next start, and possibly
the next start after that if he plays well. That being said, the Canes do play
4 games on a Western Canada road trip, and 3 of those teams can score. I’m currently
rostering <b>Elvis Merzlikins</b> in a league (.912 SV% in his last 11 starts),
and I’m trying to decide between him and Kochetkov. Elvis should get more
starts, but LA and Florida make me a little nervous.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Dawson Mercer</b>, NJ, (37% Yahoo ownership): Dawson Mercer was
nearly my top recommended add when I checked Daily Faceoff who had him playing
line 1 with Jack Hughes, but I’m watching their game against San Jose (which
they’re currently losing) and Hughes it’s Meier on that line instead of Mercer
in Timo’s first game back from injury. That being said, Mercer does have a goal
in this game, giving him 6 PTS in his last 4 GP. They had won 3 straight when
Mercer was playing with Hughes, so maybe if they lose to San Jose, Lindy will
move him back. Another appealing 3rd wheel is <b>Ivan Barbashev</b>, listed
with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone. Vegas has one of the best schedules, including
3 games on light nights. Though your league needs to count hits if you’re going
to consider Ivan, as his point totals are underwhelming.</span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Tom Wilson, Elvis Merzlikins, Ivan Barbashev, Torey
Krug, Trevor Moore</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> </b></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Zach Werenski, Alexis Lafreniere, Tom Wilson, Jonathan Quick, Jake
DeBrusk</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> </span><br /><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 25%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Charlie Lindgren</b>, Wsh, (24% Yahoo ownership): If Charlie
Lindgren happens to be available in your league, he might be a better option
than Kochetkov or Merzlikins. Washington plays 4 games and in their last 5 have
been alternating back and forth between Lindgren and Kuemper. If that holds, he
would get Dallas and Chicago. Charlie is sporting a .942 SV% in his last 6
games, which includes 5 goals allowed to Edmonton. He’s on fire and just stole
a victory from my LA Kings, stopping 38 of 39 shots. Speaking of hot streaks, <b>Alex
Lyon</b> in Detroit has given up 2 goals in his last 3 starts, all wins.
Detroit only plays 3, but Lyon has a good chance of getting Buffalo and Ottawa.
Yes they can score (sometimes), but neither occupies a playoff spot.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Jake Neighbours</b>, Stl, (10% Yahoo ownership): If you found my
Robert Thomas pitch appealing in the previous section, you may want to try his
newest winger Jake Neighbours who joins him on line 1 and power play 1
(according to Daily Faceoff), scoring an impressive 7 goals and 8 PTS in his
last 7 games with 15 shots and 14 hits. That makes him a valuable play in
category leagues, especially with the Mon-Wed-Fri schedule (sadly their weakest
opponent is on the Saturday. Another winger with solid deployment is <b>Ondrej
Palat</b>, playing 2nd line in New Jersey with Hischier and Bratt, as well as
power play two. In his last 13 GP, Palat his notched 8 PTS (3 on the PP) with
23 shots and 11 hits.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
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3) <b>Gustav Nyquist</b>, Nsh, (18% Yahoo ownership): Gus Nyquist is now
making his 3rd consecutive appearance here as Nashville has yet another 4-game
week ahead (which means they should have some very quiet weeks in their
future), with the winger playing top line and top power. In the last 2 weeks he
has 7 PTS and 18 shots in 7 games. If you added him on my advice in the
previous weeks, no reason to drop now (it’s not a hard schedule) unless you’re
worried this workload will deplete their energy. If you need more hits than
Nyquist dishes, his teammate <b>Yakov Trenin</b> should provide plenty. In his
last 12 GP he only has 5 PTS to go along with 17 shots and 31 hits. He may only
play 3rd line, but he does see time on the 2nd power play.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
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4) <b>Jared Spurgeon</b>, Min, (14% Yahoo ownership): Jared Spurgeon
missed the start of the season with injury, scoring just 2 PTS in 8 GP since
his return. The reason he’s my top deep league D this week is because Minnesota
has a favorable schedule (2 light nights) and they traded Addison to San Jose,
freeing up that top power play for Spurgeon. He’s only 14% owned after
averaging 65% last year. There’s room for positive growth, and he gets lots of
ice time, power play too. I’ll hope that slow start is just rust and he’s ready
to round into form. He won’t give you many hits though and if that’s your jam, <b>Jeremy
Lauzon</b> in Nashville has 33 in his last 7 games. Nashville has a nice
schedule ahead and is riding a hot streak.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Mason Marchment</b>, Dal, (4% Yahoo ownership): The Dallas
Stars will play 4 games in the week ahead, but could be facing some hot goalies
depending on who gets call. He’s playing on the Stars second line with
Seguin-Duchene, and the trio has been productive (his linemates here very late
cuts on my watchlist, which you can see if you scroll past my fantasy awards).
Marchment isn’t currently deployed on the power play, but that hasn’t stopped
him from collecting 11 PTS in his last 14 GP, with 25 shots and 10 hits. If
you’d like an easier schedule, <b>Marco Rossi</b> is still listed on
Minnesota’s top line with Kaprizov, scoring 8 PTS with 20 shots in his last 12
GP. They play Chicago Sunday before departing for a western road trip that
could be fruitful if Karpizov finally gets going.</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Alex Lyon, Ondrej Palat, Jeremy Lauzon, Yakov Trenin</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> </b></span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Gustav Nyquist, J.J Peterka, Charlie
Coyle, Calen Addison</span><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTd3P7k0QisEm4OT_6YUR7o69_4uYhrvWlKgXAX15Nu6NnwIbEgNaXmjdswc15AWsliiqmOHz2F88Tb2Ev0vVKC8ht4a9METFw-0m-SpOo443SLue5zHdbrzPw-61vh_AxpcX3sR1kSk3qaZBvL20JJSnjNEgqiFnk1V_O-NTLj8UOPawHHSdoWUU5GKll/s737/Week9sched.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="737" data-original-width="574" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTd3P7k0QisEm4OT_6YUR7o69_4uYhrvWlKgXAX15Nu6NnwIbEgNaXmjdswc15AWsliiqmOHz2F88Tb2Ev0vVKC8ht4a9METFw-0m-SpOo443SLue5zHdbrzPw-61vh_AxpcX3sR1kSk3qaZBvL20JJSnjNEgqiFnk1V_O-NTLj8UOPawHHSdoWUU5GKll/w311-h400/Week9sched.png" width="311" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMnnZI8JKoD-4rdqheoxx9tIeuPGVPVLZMS6316ZOVqQ8rQ6pxEBUiuB8DUCyfJ1pdKwvP_MRTrRFCKyWLrPipxOo6duiDCd6Oib6DXdmXszt4aCG3VPh9ePoUDIz5ziWpQVjaNvKKfCAJmZRjPXju4btuuLlaEQuUWn1sMUzgUTFS9T31uFzHbg-XFKhU/s1280/week9watch.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="884" data-original-width="1280" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMnnZI8JKoD-4rdqheoxx9tIeuPGVPVLZMS6316ZOVqQ8rQ6pxEBUiuB8DUCyfJ1pdKwvP_MRTrRFCKyWLrPipxOo6duiDCd6Oib6DXdmXszt4aCG3VPh9ePoUDIz5ziWpQVjaNvKKfCAJmZRjPXju4btuuLlaEQuUWn1sMUzgUTFS9T31uFzHbg-XFKhU/w400-h276/week9watch.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">November MVF </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
forward of the month?</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nikita Kucherov</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> TBL<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">J.T Miller VAN</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Nathan MacKinnon COL</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">November MVD </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
defenseman of the month?</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Cale Makar</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> COL<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Quinn Hughes VAN</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Filip Hronek VAN</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">November MVG </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Who was the most valuable
goalie of the month?</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Sergei Bobrovsky</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> FLA<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Thatcher Demko VAN</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Tristan Jarry PIT</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Stock Rocket Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player with biggest increase
in fantasy ownership.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Eeli Tolvanen</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> SEA +46%<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Trevor Moore LAK +39%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">William Karlsson VEG +35%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Erik Gustafsson NYR +35%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Cam Talbot LAK +35%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Quinton Byfield LAK +34%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Filip Hronek VAN +34%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Robert Thomas STL +34%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Mason Mctavish ANA +33%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Patrick Kane DET +33%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Stock Plunger Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Healthy(ish) player with the
biggest drop in fantasy ownership.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Devon Levi</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> BUF -37%<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Ryan Hartman MIN -31%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Jonas Johansson TBL -28%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Karel Vejmelka ARI -26%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Vladimir Tarasenko OTT -25%</span><br /><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Evan Rodrigues FLA -25%</span><br /><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Tyson Barrie NSH -24%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Pierre-Luc Dubois LAK -24%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Anthony DeAngelo CAR -24%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Jack Campbell EDM -23%</span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"><br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Jonathan Huberdeau Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player most below my point
projection (full season, not just November).</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Matthew Tkachuk </span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">FLA 23 GP 18 PTS<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Johnny Gaudreau CBJ 24
GP 11 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Connor Brown EDM 16 GP 1 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Pleasant Surprise Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player most exceeding my
point projection (full season, not just November).</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Pavel Mintyukov</span></b><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> ANA 23 GP 12 PTS<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">J.T Miller VAN 24 GP 36 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Filip Hronek VAN 24 GP 23 PTS</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 16.0pt;">Simon Edvinsson Award</span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Player I’m most disappointed
to see in the minors.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;"> </span><br /><b><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Simon Edvinsson</span></b><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;"> DET<o:p></o:p></span><br /><span lang="FR" style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: FR;">Devon Levi BUF</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13.0pt;">Spencer Knight FLA</span><br /><b><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> </span></b><br /><span style="font-size: 13pt;">*Kent
Johnson was scheduled to win this award before getting recalled at the end of
the month. Levi would have won if I didn’t think this was the best thing for
his development.</span><br /><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> </span></div></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></span>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-80791449898730862492023-11-28T09:34:00.000-08:002023-11-28T09:34:38.159-08:002023/24 Week 7 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week seven of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books and today is the first day of the second quarter, which means my
“Profitability Rankings” below are my final Q1 ranks, and will be presented in
exactly that order when my first quarterly report is released in the next 7-10
days. I’m already 5,000 words into that project, providing a deeper look at
each team. The San Jose Sharks finish in first place, the Montreal Canadiens in
last place. My rate of return on the season has dropped to 1.4%, which is
disappointing but not a disaster. All these models are relatively new, and I
need to get comfortable with their strengths and weaknesses.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you’d like to
read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a
330-page book outlining the results from every angle. <span style="background: white; color: black;">What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the </span></span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Economists-Betting-Prospectus-ebook/dp/B0BL2PSXCQ/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Amazon
store</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been moved to Substack this
season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free
subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned
that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and
ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification
each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the
algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.<br /><span style="background: white; color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPHx0I4RWzNZjBcjg3uZwr6ZtS3T_rdA2zO3793PTtI80lJAjc7iR5C751Gs4XLIoe7bRR8UumDsNcBE89uock0jFhmJL46flipKYuJLBIz1abizkjGk6BaI4T_JZfClGfACyCxckqDp5pHzbcch7QH6J86gUzhIIk9j4UvMwEwye4JHjyzv4w4yqp_0Uu/s251/Wk7E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="251" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPHx0I4RWzNZjBcjg3uZwr6ZtS3T_rdA2zO3793PTtI80lJAjc7iR5C751Gs4XLIoe7bRR8UumDsNcBE89uock0jFhmJL46flipKYuJLBIz1abizkjGk6BaI4T_JZfClGfACyCxckqDp5pHzbcch7QH6J86gUzhIIk9j4UvMwEwye4JHjyzv4w4yqp_0Uu/s1600/Wk7E.png" width="251" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My week 7 preview identified that this would be a good
week to bet road teams, and that was indeed true. That’s a big reason why
Tailing History (aka Tails) was king of the models. My investment in road teams
was larger than home teams, but I wound up losing money on both. My preview anticipated
this would be a bad week to bet dogs -1.5 goals, and that was also true (with
most of the losses coming from home dogs). If you bet $100 on every underdog
-1.5 goals this week, you lost nearly <span style="color: red;">-$1,500</span>.
Tails and Game Sum cleaned up on faves -1.5 goals and I did too, but not nearly
as much.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Tuesday I sent a picks email for all the Wednesday
games exclusively to my free subscribers, and while I came out ahead betting
wins and losses, I went 2-11-1 on my over/under picks (after going 8-4 Sunday
and Monday). There were no games on Thursday, but Friday I wrote “Wednesday
over/under post-mortem” on my “to do” list.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>But this Friday was a little different, there were games all day for the
holiday in America. Before the analysis of my shitty Wednesday even began, my
Friday OU picks started cashing. By the end of the night, I was 10-5, hitting 3
of 4 “double” wagers. The post-mortem was scratched off the list before it even
began.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">All that being said, Friday wasn’t a great night. My
success in over/under had to pay for two substantial losses, Chicago upsetting
Toronto (again) and Montreal not covering the puckline vs San Jose. Both were
bets that I shared on Twitter, but neglecting to share that the Leafs have a
history of choking when I make big bets on them to win, and Montreal being dead
last in my profitability rankings. At least my Tweet noted that Montreal is bad
at covering -1.5 on the road and my fair line estimator only thought they
should be a -125 favorite, which was worrisome. Boston (7-1 at home) losing to
Detroit (4-4 on the road) also struck out, as did Washington to beat Edmonton
(at least Skinner recorded a shutout for my fantasy team).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">By Saturday afternoon when I sent another picks email
to subscribers, I was up $91 for the week on my over/under picks. By Sunday
night I was down <span style="color: red;">-$839</span>, going 0-3 when betting
double. The teams that caused the most trouble for my advisory algorithms; New
Jersey unders going 2-1, Winnipeg unders going 3-0, Anaheim overs going 3-0,
Carolina overs going 2-1, and Minnesota unders going 2-0. That pretty much
explains all my difficulty this week. Too many teams transitioning from overs
to unders and visa versa. I’m planning to start tracking which over/under
algorithms are better for each team. Here was how they all performed this week.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqLzvlItdhbFekX4ubyimMmv6-CSm2EhyphenhyphenrVcdgFE-mUiftcMdCHCjlk7w4g65QivejuhmGeDem6OnExl6uGrb8KvXsqJ2SbrGfXnUxfo2xjs4auODfCpUwPo-9c1GLhEiDLtRGEcaoU55p2gwxyFqfRHkd14bfyPuiu806OEiJqug_VrMly0AON3IqfHM9/s389/Wk7F.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="212" data-original-width="389" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqLzvlItdhbFekX4ubyimMmv6-CSm2EhyphenhyphenrVcdgFE-mUiftcMdCHCjlk7w4g65QivejuhmGeDem6OnExl6uGrb8KvXsqJ2SbrGfXnUxfo2xjs4auODfCpUwPo-9c1GLhEiDLtRGEcaoU55p2gwxyFqfRHkd14bfyPuiu806OEiJqug_VrMly0AON3IqfHM9/s320/Wk7F.png" width="320" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There was some discussion in my </span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/week-8-nhl-betting-preview"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Sunday preview</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> about this new “Prime Line Value” algorithm. All these are going into
my weekly database, so I can track which combinations perform the best when
they are in agreement, who is the best when my primary is wrong, and which
algorithms work better for each team. I’m currently slumping on over/unders,
but there is a plan underway to maximize the advice I’m receiving from this
advisory team. This Prime Line Value might become the new primary if it
continues performing like this. It’s just bizarre how often it likes unders.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Los Angeles Kings</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$1,094<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Los Angeles Kings have ascended to 2nd in my
profitability rankings and might be the best team in the league. They have
certainly passed Vegas as the team I trust the most to deliver on my picks,
with Boston’s reliability also wavering. The only thing that bothered me previously
was Pheonix Copley being terrible, and most of my bets being logged 30ish hours
before puck drop. Doubt would creep into my mind when Talbot had started a few
in a row and the risk of the radioactive back-up getting the call climbed. But
Copley has only given up 1 goal in his last 2 starts, so maybe my nerves can
calm.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second best team of the week was the Seattle
Kraken, which is actually a team that I’m still in the process of trying figure
out, but had a good read this week pulling a nice profit from both betting them
to win and lose. This was a playoff team last year that upset the defending
champ in round one and won at a 36% clip in the 1st quarter. It did cost me
some money early in the schedule learning this isn’t the team we saw last
spring. They have a lot of the same pieces, so it’s plausible they’ll get hot
eventually, I’ll just need to see it to believe it.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">New Jersey Devils</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$900<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The New Jersey Devils threw a wrench in my proficiency
this week, betting them to beat Detroit and Columbus after Jack Hughes returned
to the line-up, losing both (turns out Alex Lyon and Elvis Merzlikins are
starting Vezina campaigns). That compelled me to bet the frisky Sabres to beat
them on Saturday, but then Nico Hischier returned and the Devils destroyed
them. I’m hoping now that the pair is back, it’s safe to make big bets on
Devils to win again. I was betting Devils in 75% of their games until those two
injures. If both are healthy, I’m back on the wagon.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Boston Bruins were my second worst team of the
week, which hurts because this was one of my safe harbors in October. I can
probably just cut and paste what I wrote about Vegas last week and change the
names. The Bs played 4 times and lost 3. The only game I bet them to lose was
the game they won. The only reason they weren’t my #1 worst team of the week
was going 3-1 on their over/under (with my primary algorithm recommending the
over each time). This previously impenetrable defense has given up 5+ goals in
3 of their last 4 games.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 7 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGAXkCoGiBDSv2U-vu_0kgl1zq-0vgsCEepOjMofsEUXEm9-5fOOKVkUaJvs_N2IEFaWsrplwU34LNmiCnfQgKCY8R06rmxYxMjVcGDPgjLUyOmq2t89MCVVVQdAMyGl27EmuK2M_AhC-rV2_lUjCDag-6FOUGuFPVBgQB_bx33y0IW2ft1wM4lpj9vKNE/s553/Wk7A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="553" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGAXkCoGiBDSv2U-vu_0kgl1zq-0vgsCEepOjMofsEUXEm9-5fOOKVkUaJvs_N2IEFaWsrplwU34LNmiCnfQgKCY8R06rmxYxMjVcGDPgjLUyOmq2t89MCVVVQdAMyGl27EmuK2M_AhC-rV2_lUjCDag-6FOUGuFPVBgQB_bx33y0IW2ft1wM4lpj9vKNE/w400-h199/Wk7A.png" width="400" /></a></div> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">There wasn’t much here for me to brag about, as all my
success came from home favorites -1.5 goals and road dogs ML. My Week 7 Preview
indicated this would be a good week to bet road teams, which it was. What
killed my road performance was San Jose covering +1.5 twice at home, Toronto
losing Chicago, New Jersey losing to Detroit, and Colorado losing to Nashville.
I’m certainly not happy about my over/under performance, but as previously
mentioned, I’m expanding my algorithm tracking to add much more depth to my
decisions.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-6g4xEfw_2HZgTQS3eR0Po8FXBUo1NBCMxTlm5nYJK8m4dc_VhFApoivuJeHWzC0zyQ5aO31_EG4cJuFnExThW7Yv9lbsMm-t2r7yXVgiHmf04Ilc_4GumhRvvVWzifLFHOarp-d0RcL5rn99E2lISi4BbX1E3nDMCkWQ3-rcHrbgItVXb0_V9i4K1D1/s659/wk7B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="659" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-6g4xEfw_2HZgTQS3eR0Po8FXBUo1NBCMxTlm5nYJK8m4dc_VhFApoivuJeHWzC0zyQ5aO31_EG4cJuFnExThW7Yv9lbsMm-t2r7yXVgiHmf04Ilc_4GumhRvvVWzifLFHOarp-d0RcL5rn99E2lISi4BbX1E3nDMCkWQ3-rcHrbgItVXb0_V9i4K1D1/w400-h295/wk7B.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Some of the team results above you’ll recognize from
my best/worst teams of the week. Nashville-Detroit exceeding expectations and
Boston-Toronto disappointing was the combo that dealt the death blow. Thanks
God almighty for the LA Kings. They might be my new favorite team to bet on,
the one that makes me feel the safest. I’m concerned about Boston and Vegas. What
happened to my over/under wagers can be explained pretty easily looking at the
results below. The two best bets were under 6.5 goals and over 7, whereas over
6.5 and under 7 were my two worst bets.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 17.3333px;"><br /></span></div>
</div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic2-jwJxAK8RD_Lm_hy7mi9hjIwjorum_Nvosy9Qlp1wsdvuFHKn8zsPWODTJAiBN2B99RBFvS20PtPL52st0cceiIYdE81XQbGtJSDXPQJqXR8EO98L9rEhplG9NBFXbeKU0rCPEgwjMmB0n3KW3i8ytCKerHegXUBY4F-urTZ8Q9qRhI6OjmlcEk1aud/s714/Wk7PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="577" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEic2-jwJxAK8RD_Lm_hy7mi9hjIwjorum_Nvosy9Qlp1wsdvuFHKn8zsPWODTJAiBN2B99RBFvS20PtPL52st0cceiIYdE81XQbGtJSDXPQJqXR8EO98L9rEhplG9NBFXbeKU0rCPEgwjMmB0n3KW3i8ytCKerHegXUBY4F-urTZ8Q9qRhI6OjmlcEk1aud/w324-h400/Wk7PR.png" width="324" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 13pt;"> </span></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these make their decisions. For the full breakdown,
</span><a href="https://hockeconomics.substack.com/p/my-nhl-betting-models-explained"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">click here</span></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">. Below is the chart showing how they all performed in week 7, breaking
it down by category.<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgASJhcvmbqzsl42iFttAI7Z9pgbhURp6wJGb3D0pVCZan9qDczsKiXbWjYMzkAwNGhMTEcRVnA29fgYCQHXdvJpDFru-toKAL7RL__JTma8G7Ypis2YKoktuf2l5xLc5tDrmIeyW7r-j7n9Ncinr1qVzqrovs_HNGOZCelUqXhCn3QkJiWxcumU_R5HjuM/s793/wk7D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="793" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgASJhcvmbqzsl42iFttAI7Z9pgbhURp6wJGb3D0pVCZan9qDczsKiXbWjYMzkAwNGhMTEcRVnA29fgYCQHXdvJpDFru-toKAL7RL__JTma8G7Ypis2YKoktuf2l5xLc5tDrmIeyW7r-j7n9Ncinr1qVzqrovs_HNGOZCelUqXhCn3QkJiWxcumU_R5HjuM/w400-h266/wk7D.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This was a roller-coaster ride for my Betting Venues
model, who many of you know by now is the leader in this “Me vs Myself” section
by a mile. A few days into the week, it was down over $2,000 because the
underdog pucklines -1.5 goals stopped cashing, at least until Friday, then won
$2,600. Then it lost all that money back on Saturday. Home teams did most of
the damage, ML and -1.5 goals. Tailing History knew to avoid dogs -1.5 goals
and could have saved B.V from a few mistakes. Tails also did a much better job
at favorites -1.5 goals, as the historically profitable line ranges replicated
their effectiveness more than past match-ups between these teams in that city.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Game Sum model has posted a significant loss in
all 3 weeks it has been alive, so it might be time to modify the decision
matrix. There are two possible modifications I’m considering: first being the
exact same model, but using my betting results instead of the $100 on every
outcome data it is currently using. Or it can use the “fair line estimator” to
just bet whatever option is offering the most value. Although my suspicion is
that version would often bet the same outcome as the original formula. There’s
not a big rush, as long as you know it’s a big loser when going through my
picks.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The data that’s feeding Game Sum does have meaning and
value. It was made using data I’ll regularly check before making my own picks.
What’s a good bet when this team is on the road and that team is at home? What
bothers me the most is that it’s losing a large sum on both underdog and
favorites ML. At first it seemed like the problem could be fixed by limiting
bet size on underdog pucklines -1.5 goals but there’s bigger problems. I could
always install some safety protocols to minimize bet size on categories
producing the largest loss. We’ll see, I’ve got some time to think about this.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This is also where I share picks for Tuesday. My
report is already getting pretty long, so I’m not breaking down the entire Tuesday
slate, just those I’m most interested in betting. Sorry, I’m skipping Vancouver
and Anaheim. These were two of my bandwagon teams that have both been
regressing. I’m recusing myself from sharing my bet. The models were very
divided too.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">NYI @ NJ</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje2DCgHYoPREz1kl9aLeAf-bRS0_6QhaNCW6d9GF-xPg-WrjcfJ-iR10GTi4SO6MiK_w1SIFdfY0-NT8yXon2L7HP5jHVlWCJE1zG1wBk-UrltPQ43M5ej_ktVX0douxzUwwAEHkN8zKzUUVhbwRSy14mtnO833zkFKBYepSD2tN5UBSAlAUHuRTqOjUuv/s432/G1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="376" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEje2DCgHYoPREz1kl9aLeAf-bRS0_6QhaNCW6d9GF-xPg-WrjcfJ-iR10GTi4SO6MiK_w1SIFdfY0-NT8yXon2L7HP5jHVlWCJE1zG1wBk-UrltPQ43M5ej_ktVX0douxzUwwAEHkN8zKzUUVhbwRSy14mtnO833zkFKBYepSD2tN5UBSAlAUHuRTqOjUuv/s320/G1.png" width="279" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Devils have Hughes and Hischier back in the
line-up, crushing Buffalo 7-2 in their last game. Seeing that overwhelming
victory with both back compels me to jump aboard the bandwagon, however for
this game specifically, I’m going to have to make a minimum bet on the Isles ML
+142. A big reason why is that the Islanders are 6-2 in New Jersey since
October 2019, so Betting Venues is taking the NYI ML too. Game Sum also loves
the Isles ML as they are 4-5 on the road while Jersey is 4-6 at home (where
they have struggled in past seasons, albeit with a worse team). Isles having a
better road record than NJD’s home record means the fair line estimator thinks
they should be a slight favorite, not a +142 dog.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">It’s intimidating to bet against the Devils, but this
should be Sorokin (.918 SV% last 30 days) vs Vanecek (.881 SV% last 30 days).
The OU Council voted 4-4 on under 6.5, but my primary likes the over and so
does Prime Line Value, which is crushing overs this season (as discussed in my
preview yesterday). Both line value algorithms like that over at +105. Tailing
History also took the over and is the best performing OU algorithm this season.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">CAR @ PHI</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJFEmJQrLMaIqoRmUIh6B08unBOcJLBQALxQNK7XVNq61oHbeofe14_2EoXv4dcvbxjkfaPmCH4iHHZpqqsyO5egeyyD5n1kVKx7tgFSeJ3IzI6sMWuybfFUDNuEpg85Zl1OaosPPy2kb4Y2HQq_XplJkd3wR8ghSq6j_m-uhpxOFXOfpLTtlNSl3YpAyt/s432/G2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="376" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJFEmJQrLMaIqoRmUIh6B08unBOcJLBQALxQNK7XVNq61oHbeofe14_2EoXv4dcvbxjkfaPmCH4iHHZpqqsyO5egeyyD5n1kVKx7tgFSeJ3IzI6sMWuybfFUDNuEpg85Zl1OaosPPy2kb4Y2HQq_XplJkd3wR8ghSq6j_m-uhpxOFXOfpLTtlNSl3YpAyt/s320/G2.png" width="279" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Carolina Hurricanes are 5-6 on the road and the
Flyers are 5-5 at home, which would make them a slight favorite by that simple
math. While I do like Carolina as a team, paying -162 for their road moneyline
is too expensive for my comfort. Tailing History and Game Sum have max bets on
Philly -1.5 goals, with the GS justification being Flyers have been a great bet
-1.5 goals at home (hitting in 4 of 5 home wins at +260, +360, +240, and +160),
while road Carolina opponents have also been profitable at -1.5 (hitting at
+475, +300, +230, and +240). I’m not that brave though. I considered tailing
Betting Venues on the PL +1.5, but ultimately settled on the ML +136.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This will almost certainly be Carter Hart in goal,
though his SV% last 30 days has dropped to .896. I’m not sure which Carolina
goalie this will be, but Kochetkov has a .917 SV% last 30 days while Raanta is
a concerning .846, getting lit up for 8 goals on 14 shots last start against
Tampa. Seems like for that reason they’ll go back to Kochetkov, which compels
me to bet under 6 goals. But I hate that bet if they come back with Raanta.
Consider yourself warned.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">PIT @ NSH</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg23la5MS-TnBXwC27sk2MXyJpX3nTbHCMmB8hxIrMGv_38csSaMYWSrOE1PTCumW_oFhI3bIYTpNP1Cni2O11QFHRY2lgsNBY_s3rvPLAaUZpDsuw_-r-wVnWNMSIV3KljKxMsFQIX17lN_8oUhlDDu5Q3RrDHebFhx-as56mAk1hUK2ktgg02UjxAaY1M/s432/G3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="376" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg23la5MS-TnBXwC27sk2MXyJpX3nTbHCMmB8hxIrMGv_38csSaMYWSrOE1PTCumW_oFhI3bIYTpNP1Cni2O11QFHRY2lgsNBY_s3rvPLAaUZpDsuw_-r-wVnWNMSIV3KljKxMsFQIX17lN_8oUhlDDu5Q3RrDHebFhx-as56mAk1hUK2ktgg02UjxAaY1M/s320/G3.png" width="279" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The fair line estimator thinks Nashville should be
favored here because they’re 7-4 at home while Pittsburgh is 5-4 on the road.
This will almost certainly be Saros in goal for the Preds, and while he does
have an .890 SV% last 30 days, it’s .920 in his last 3 games. He’s trending in
a positive direction. All that said, Nashville ML was tempting at +100 because
they’ve won 5 in a row.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That’s why Game
Sum is betting Nashville ML. What pushed me to Pittsburgh was the other 2
models going big on Pens -1.5 goals. They are 2-1 in Nashville since Oct 2019,
covering both wins -1.5 goals at +272 and +200 (last year). I’ll make a smaller
bet on the Pens -1.5 goals, taking a swing at a +200 payout.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The OU Council is voting 7-1 on under 6.5 but the one
holdout happens to be the best performing. But as mentioned in my preview
yesterday, it’s loving overs because of Omicron in 2021 that probably won’t
repeat with the league dropping protocols.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">STL @ MIN</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT_e0eimKORDk6cpwJ26DMXAt6ZgMlKrWKddUmxT2eHBbVdXwHnABCLgzdW8w4BjCl7z6S31rhNyI9kIPfZLUYOVNvFD_L2aprZ4o7YvGWS7ATvmiZjtpSJZoeTbea8fnUpLD97MbsEFY6BhCcCvzObduCn-MRpqoUUDCZMd6SVladIX63oMTlwDVfmBVT/s432/G4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="376" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhT_e0eimKORDk6cpwJ26DMXAt6ZgMlKrWKddUmxT2eHBbVdXwHnABCLgzdW8w4BjCl7z6S31rhNyI9kIPfZLUYOVNvFD_L2aprZ4o7YvGWS7ATvmiZjtpSJZoeTbea8fnUpLD97MbsEFY6BhCcCvzObduCn-MRpqoUUDCZMd6SVladIX63oMTlwDVfmBVT/s320/G4.png" width="279" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The OU Council is very divided on this game. Minnesota
overs have been awesome this season, but they have gone under 6.5 in 3 of their
last 4 games. Given the erratic nature of both team’s goaltending, it’s hard to
trust either side. Binnington looked like he was starting to unravel then
played well against Chicago (helping me win a puckline bet that was shared with
subscribers). The reason I’m even sharing a pick here is because Betting Venues
and Game Sum love St. Louis -1.5 goals (the actual alt puckline isn’t up yet,
but should be around +320). Blues have covered -1.5 in 4 of their last 6 trips
to Minnesota. We hit a Blues PL bet on Sunday, let’s go for another on Tuesday.
The fair line estimator thinks the Wild ML should be +122 not -162. They’ve
lost 7 in a row. Maybe there’s historical data that 7 game losing streaks tend
to end on the 8th game. That’s the only way the line makes any sense.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">DAL @ WPG</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDUGSGx2Gm3lPHiEc2j1GBIYtpLkKcAER8JtFKJ6W-Zb9M1Kp_Bjl3ZwM1cRJKt61B2PFqu0mlzeFebliU441Jb0DdTge3WvGCEoEzpoUqtKD_GOeJA8_6EHyAvhTPrJmugDZjOKBdc0jJHjPqXuylMSRq363M_xljPtyahueWQJ9dmhb4q5C17gOjPUBq/s432/G5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="376" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDUGSGx2Gm3lPHiEc2j1GBIYtpLkKcAER8JtFKJ6W-Zb9M1Kp_Bjl3ZwM1cRJKt61B2PFqu0mlzeFebliU441Jb0DdTge3WvGCEoEzpoUqtKD_GOeJA8_6EHyAvhTPrJmugDZjOKBdc0jJHjPqXuylMSRq363M_xljPtyahueWQJ9dmhb4q5C17gOjPUBq/s320/G5.png" width="279" /></a></div><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Dallas Stars are a really good hockey team, and
the fair line estimator thinks they should be -138 instead of -118, so there’s potential
value there. The models are divided, but I’m going to tail Betting Venues with
a smaller wager on Jets ML at -102. Jets have been one of my best teams to bet
on this season, and I have yet to be chased off their bandwagon. Stars are good
though. What’s more interesting is the 8-0 support for over 6 goals. The line
is probably because this should be Hellebuyck vs Oettinger, the catch being
Oettinger only has an .893 SV% in the last 30 days. If you’re expecting a
goaltending duel between Vezina contenders, maybe bet the under. I just like
+100 for over 6.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">TB @ ARI</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">:<br /><o:p></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJEeMn1QYqHE2_EmSXAZAvV8baye9UXqgMkOQbdfg8onpVrK1Tavtl81G2YK9lRGVUsMMB6SW1LsdoQepYfQBlTdBob33oNd1BmHM9ENjeA2pckYpyZdN_Ephb5A_KICkdSjmZ-9y0Hxyg5NlVNycppwWrRYjN2STWY7ZSCmtjQKrM56gHW2Nhl_t2Cudp/s432/G6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="376" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJEeMn1QYqHE2_EmSXAZAvV8baye9UXqgMkOQbdfg8onpVrK1Tavtl81G2YK9lRGVUsMMB6SW1LsdoQepYfQBlTdBob33oNd1BmHM9ENjeA2pckYpyZdN_Ephb5A_KICkdSjmZ-9y0Hxyg5NlVNycppwWrRYjN2STWY7ZSCmtjQKrM56gHW2Nhl_t2Cudp/s320/G6.png" width="279" /></a></div><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Tampa Bay Lightning are playing tonight in Denver,
then flying to Arizona for a back-to-back. They did the same thing last year,
winning 4-3 in Colorado then losing 1-0 in Mullett Arena. Connor Ingram was the
starting goalie in that game, and is Arizona’s confirmed starter tomorrow (he
just shutout Vegas and has a .927 SV% last 30 days). All 4 models are taking
the Yotes, even Shorting Travel is getting in on the action with Tampa playing
a back-to-back flying 947 km. I’ll take the Arizona ML at +114, which the fair
line estimator thinks should be -125. Jonas Johansson is the confirmed starter
for Tampa (.871 SV% last 30 days), which is why I’ll be taking over 6.5 (but
Ingram and Tampa being tired from chasing MacKinnon and Makar around the ice
tonight may favor the under).</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-76166413133202476662023-11-28T09:25:00.000-08:002023-11-28T09:25:36.811-08:002023/24 Week 8 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report<div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Week 8 is here and here are a few potential streaming targets. The
award for best schedule this week goes to the Boston Bruins and a whopping 12
teams will be playing 4 times. This is going to be a busy week. Building
my watchlist in preparation for this report had a rare problem, I reached the
maximum of 100 players too soon and had to start trimming before the list was
even finished. <br /></span><span style="font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">My blog has been moved to
Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for
a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m
concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for
Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email
notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free,
the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. I have
already started sending out bonus betting content exclusive to subscribers, and
may start a Sunday Fantasy Thoughts. You just need to email me and tell me if
you want bonus betting picks, bonus fantasy thoughts, or both. </span><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Standard League Adds (25%
to 65% Yahoo ownership):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Zach Werenski</b>, Cbj, (49% Yahoo ownership): The Columbus Blue
Jackets do have the 2nd toughest 4-game schedule in the week ahead for opponent
goal prevention, but I’m still interested in Zach Werenski (who has been on one
of my teams the whole season). I have a high standard for permanent roster
spots and Werenski has 12 PTS in his last 15 GP with 33 shots. He needs to be
added in more leagues and is worth hanging onto permanently when healthy. If
you want someone with a better schedule who is more widely available, <b>Erik
Gustafsson</b> has 9 PTS in his last 12 GP for the Rangers who have the 2nd
best schedule this week. He loses value when Fox returns, but there’s no news
updates besides Fox’s name.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Alexis Lafreniere</b>, NYR, (42% Yahoo ownership): If you added
Lafreniere last week on my advice, you may as well let it ride for at least
another week. The Rangers have a strong schedule and Lafreniere is still
playing with Artemi Panarin. Yes, he only recorded 1 point on their 4-game road
trip but the opponents were better defenders than who they’re going to be
facing. Another player that I recommended last week who performed better that
Alexis was <b>Ryan O’Reilly</b>. I added him in a league and might hold on for
a little bit longer. The Preds don’t have a great schedule in terms of opponent
goal prevention and the center-only designation might force me to drop him, but
he’s not necessarily someone you want to cut loose quite yet (scoring 14 PTS in
his last 12 GP).</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>Tom Wilson</b>, Wsh, (46% Yahoo ownership): The Washington Capitals play
4 games this week and Tom Wilson is on the Capitals top power play with Alex
Ovechkin (though only the 2nd line according to Daily Faceoff, which was different
yesterday). Their opponents are decidedly average at goal prevention, but you
shouldn’t be adding Wilson for points-only leagues. You add him if your league
counts hits. In his last 12 GP, Wilson has 7 PTS, 37 shots, and 34 hits. He had
7 shots and 6 hits in their loss to Edmonton. If your league doesn’t count
hits, you could try <b>Johnny Gaudreau</b>, who does have 3 PTS in his last 4
GP (though he did only record 1 point in his previous 7 GP).</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
4) <b>Jonathan Quick</b>, NYR, (35% Yahoo ownership): Igor
Shesterkin has returned to the New York Rangers and resumed his #1 starter
duties. Jonathan Quick held down the fort in his absence and shutout the
Penguins in his last start. Not sure he’ll play in the Buffalo or Detroit
games, but he’ll for sure get Nashville or San Jose, which in theory should be
an easy win. He has a .936 SV% and 4 wins in his last 5 games, so he’s earning
his ice time. <b>Charlie Lindgren</b> is another option, though he just lost to
the Oilers 5-0. Washington plays 4 games and Lindgren had been on a nice heater
entering that one, but Kuemper seems likely to get the San Jose game. Their
next 3 opponents are LA, Anaheim, and Vegas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Two of those worry me. Lindgren did shutout Vegas recently.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Jake DeBrusk</b>, Bos, (39% Yahoo ownership): The Boston Bruins
won the best schedule of the week award (playing Columbus, San Jose, Toronto,
Columbus), and DeBrusk is the best forward option in this ownership range.
Daily Faceoff lists him on the Bruins 3rd line plus the top power play, and the
dual eligible winger has scored 3 PTS in his last 4 GP. It’s worth noting that
he gets more ice time than your typical 3rd line winger. If you prefer an
option that is both top line and top power play, <b>Boone Jenner</b> in
Columbus is eligible at center and wing, scoring 5 PTS with 17 shots and 13
hits in his last 8 GP. They do have a tougher schedule than Boston, in part
because they’re playing the Bruins twice.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Johnny Gaudreau, Ryan O’Reilly, Boone Jenner, Charlie
Lindgren, Erik Gustafsson<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Valeri Nichushkin, Jacob Markstrom, MacKenzie Weegar, Alexis
Lafreniere, Vincent Trochek <br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"> <br /></span><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 16.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">Best Deep League Adds (under 26%
ownership</span></u></b><b><u><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">):<br /></span></u></b><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
1) <b>Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen</b>, Buf, (17% Yahoo ownership): Rookie Devon
Levi has been struggling in Buffalo, and UPL is stepping up. In his last 8
games, he has 4 wins with a .923 SV% and a shutout. The Sabres have a busy week
coming up, the only issue being that they face the Rangers, Blues, Hurricanes,
and Predators; which isn’t the worst schedule ever, but there’s some risk. Even
St. Louis and Nashville have had a few high scoring games. But if UPL keeps
this up and the team heats up, that ownership number will climb. Also, <b>Elvis
Merzlikins</b> looks to be heating up with a .915 SV% in his last 6 GP and
Columbus has won 2 in a row. The only thing that worries me is 2 of their 4
games this week are against Boston.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
2) <b>Gustav Nyquist</b>, Nsh, (6% Yahoo ownership): Gustav Nyquist was
featured here last week, and if you added him on my advice, he did not
disappoint scoring 4 PTS in his first 3 GP the last 6 days. There’s no reason
to stream him out if he’s on your roster because they’re going to be playing
another 4 in the week ahead. He’s playing top line and top power play in
Nashville (10 PTS in his last 12 GP), who also plays tomorrow. So, you can add
him tonight to help end your current week, then hang on for at least one more.
Another unheralded widely available top line top power play option is <b>Kirill
Marchenko</b> in Columbus. His 4 PTS and 18 shots in his last 8 GP is less
impressive than Nyquist, but he’s the right situation to succeed.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
3) <b>J.J Peterka</b>, Buf, (22% Yahoo ownership): JJ Peterka plays on the
second line in Buffalo, but unlike his linemates is also deployed on the top
power play. The young winger has scored 13 PTS (2 on the power play) in his
last 13 GP, adding an impressive 34 shots. It’s not an easy schedule for
Buffalo facing the Rangers and Hurricanes, but they also face St. Louis with a
potentially unravelling Jordan Binnington. Even the Canes just got blown out by
Tampa. If you would prefer a top line top power play option who is more widely
available and also plays 4 games, <b>Philipp Kurashev</b> is playing with
Connor Bedard in Chicago, scoring 12 PTS (2 on the power play) with 20 shots in
his last 11 GP.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br style="mso-special-character: line-break;" /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">4) <b>Charlie
Coyle</b>, Bos, (26% Yahoo ownership): As previously mentioned, the Boston
Bruins have the best schedule this week and Charlie Coyle has 13 PTS (2 on the
power play) with 27 shots and 13 hits in his last 13 GP. He might only be
playing 2nd line and 2nd power play, but has been very productive from that
position and doesn’t seem likely to slow down with the schedule that lies
ahead. But if you’d rather have a top line, top power play option who plays 4
games, you could go with <b>Dylan Strome</b> in Washington. The downside being
he only has 6 PTS in his last 11 GP with 21 shots and 1 hit, so he’s unlikely
to provide more scoring than Coyle, but he’s available in a few more leagues
and gets more ice time.<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
5) <b>Calen Addison</b>, SJ, (3% Yahoo ownership): The Sharks will be
facing the toughest of the 4-game schedules in what is likely to be a low
scoring week for the fish. But they will inevitably get a few power plays, and
that’s where Calen Addison has the opportunity to put up some points. Getting
traded to San Jose should help his production in theory because he’s getting
more ice time. Another option is <b>Ivan Provorov</b>, who has 4 PTS with 14
shots and 6 hits in his last 8 games. Their schedule isn’t much easier, but the
Russian defenseman does have more goals, assists, shots, hits than Addison in
the last 14 days, including a better +/-. The season is already a quarter done
and Provorov is pacing for 50 PTS, Addison 29.</span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span></div><div style="background: white; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>Honorable Mentions</b>: Philipp Kurashev, Elvis Merzlikins, Ivan Provorov,
Kirill Marchenko, Dylan Strome<br /></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b> <br /></b></span><span style="color: black; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;"><b>
Last Week</b>: Casey DeSmith, Ilya Mikheyev, Mattias Ekholm, Gustav
Nyquist, Dakota Joshua</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4879488980629833880.post-56962306114587776242023-11-22T18:15:00.000-08:002023-11-22T18:15:33.120-08:002023/24 Week 6 Betting Report<div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Week six of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books and it’s one that I’m going to remember for my disappointing
results betting over/under. Normally I’m proficient at OU wagers this time of
the season, but my primary algorithm (nicknamed OU Prime) started shooting
blanks this week. It was so bad that it required an emergency profitability
diagnostic on Saturday and Sunday. Usually when it has a bad week, it’s because
either overs or unders exceed expectation, but this was an equal loss on both
sides. Digging deeper into the numbers offered a revealing perspective.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.<br /></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">If you’d like to
read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a
330-page book outlining the results from every angle. <span style="background: white; color: black;">What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the </span></span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Hockey-Economists-Betting-Prospectus-ebook/dp/B0BL2PSXCQ/"><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">Amazon
store</span></a><span style="background: white; color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">. </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;">My blog has been moved to Substack this
season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free
subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned
that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and
ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification
each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the
algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.<br /><span style="background: white; color: black;"><o:p></o:p></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0JnVZrAg7-WOk4Nd5hJo8sUohh6_g5gkHLVWDAcwROtqTANM0mM6Nk58zi8kFZZfQWlDFDefAzu4v7DfOdgHDTehJwKPdDaz_Pt8jRIviA-eTC8uGp4t19KN9eHy4gYZ3GJvq6kJs9rULifpIPnKj-X3Ec5JA4pZZFAaE8YDwyo7rmM_dDmsXwHJYBzEu/s251/Wk6E.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="150" data-original-width="251" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0JnVZrAg7-WOk4Nd5hJo8sUohh6_g5gkHLVWDAcwROtqTANM0mM6Nk58zi8kFZZfQWlDFDefAzu4v7DfOdgHDTehJwKPdDaz_Pt8jRIviA-eTC8uGp4t19KN9eHy4gYZ3GJvq6kJs9rULifpIPnKj-X3Ec5JA4pZZFAaE8YDwyo7rmM_dDmsXwHJYBzEu/s1600/Wk6E.png" width="251" /></a></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m now working with a team of 4 different models and
don’t have plans to build any new ones because my portfolio worksheet is
getting crowded. Friday afternoon I sent a picks email to subscribers and
mostly refrained from sharing over/under picks because of my aforementioned bad
few days. OU Prime needed to be called before a tribunal to answer for this
abomination. This isn’t just because of a few bad days. I’m running a large
full season deficit on these picks, which never happened last year. I had a
decent week picking winners, it was totals that threw the curveball.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Past posts and previews have referenced my advisory
team of OU algorithms. Half take average goals per game, and half count how
many went over or under the total and picks the winner. They look back either
5, 8, or 10 games. There is a full season set in my Game Summary worksheet but
I haven’t been tracking those week-to-week. My Tailing History and Betting
Venues models each record a pick and have seats on the OU Council. “Tails” is
doing the best out of all of us full season but did a bad job this week. B.V
had a good week but a bad season thus far.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Tails might be the best performing at OU, but it can’t
take the mantle of Prime because it’s mostly just playing percentages and
betting under 6.5 and over 6 in most cases. That’s not going to put me onto hot/cold
teams and the margins are small. Instead of replacing my primary, I decided to
add some new algorithms to the advisory team, then start tracking their weekly performance.
Most of the previous advisors voted the same way too often, and diversity of
opinion needed expanding. My previous primary (5-game average) is not
generating better returns than Prime, but still has a valuable voice alerting
to possible emerging trends. It’s the fastest to react, but also most likely to
overreact.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The very first algorithm I ever conceived back in the
day was based on line value. What’s the probability of going over or under, and
what’s the line? That did have some initial success, but was eventually
replaced by the 5-gamer which crushed the Omicron scoring boom (goalies in
Covid protocol). Once that took off and sustained deep into the season, the
line value-based model was abandoned. Well now it’s making a comeback, count
the number of times these teams went over or under that total in the last 10 games,
compare that to the line, and bet the value.<br /> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">We’ll see if “the Fallen” gets revenge. It’s a pretty
simple concept. For example: let’s say both teams are 5-5 over and under that
total in the last 10 games, then the over and the under should both be +100 (if
we lived in a world with non-profit sportsbooks). If the over is -120 but
should be +100, bet the under. Another algorithm was added that uses the data
that feeds OU Prime to estimate what the line should be, compares that to the
actual line, then bets the value. That one has better results than Prime, but
disproportionately picks unders, which might be because there tends to be more
value on unders in general due to public preference towards overs.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The goal of all this is to get better accuracy on
majority agreement, or at least be able to give better context when there is
disagreement. By tracking the weekly results of all the different contributors,
I’ll be able to see which combinations produce the best results when they are
in agreement, and who should take the top job if Prime continues struggling. A
closer investigation revealed that Prime’s biggest mistake this week was when
it decided to bet double, where the modified average is greater than 0.75 or
less than -0.75 goals. Those went 2-5 and resulted in more than a <span style="color: red;">-$600</span> loss. In terms of just picking the right side,
it wasn’t all that bad. I might be turning off the “bet double” feature in the
near future.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Team of
the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Colorado Avalanche</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, +$849<br /><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Colorado Avalanche have cost me a few large wagers
this season, but getting back on the horse every time they buck me off has
yielded some big wins. In 16 games this season, my money has been on Colorado
13 times. They went 3-0 this week and coincidently I went 3-0 on my Avs picks,
and even made a nice little profit on their over/under (which was free-falling
elsewhere). That doesn’t necessarily mean that my confidence has been restored
to 100%, as Alexandar Georgiev will need to find his groove before that
happens.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">I’m excited to announce that my second-best team of
the week was the Buffalo Sabres, a team that languished in the basement of my
profitability rankings for a fair chunk of the last 5 weeks. This brought me
great sorrow because Buffalo was among my best teams last season. I had them
figured out, then suddenly my magic touch turned to shit. It was demoralizing,
so hopefully that curse has busted. I bet the correct outcomes of all 3 games,
2 of which were on Buffalo opponents to win. So, this turnaround isn’t because
they turned around, but rather my acceptance in their diminished quality
(mostly because Tage Thompson is out).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><b><span style="background: darkblue; color: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA; mso-highlight: darkblue; mso-shading: aqua; mso-themecolor: background1;">My Worst
Team of the Week:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> <b><span lang="EN-US">Vegas Golden Knights</span></b><span lang="EN-US">, <span style="color: red;">-$796<br /></span><o:p></o:p></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Vegas Golden Knights were no lower than 4th in my
profitability rankings for the first 5 weeks, but they have dropped to #9 in
the last 7 days. They played 4 games and I bet them to win all 4 moneyline
(avoiding pucklines entirely), but they only managed a single victory against
Montreal (barely), losing to Philly, Pittsburgh, and Washington. This has been
a disastrous east coast road trip, at least from my perspective (going 1-3 on
their over/unders didn’t help). Now it’s time for some soul searching whether
it’s time to downgrade my opinion of this team, or if it’s just random noise.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My second worst team of the week was the St. Louis
Blues, with a majority of the damage inflicted in their loss to San Jose (5-1
no less). Anyone who bet Sharks -3.5 goals at +50000 surely had an amazing
night, but not me. This is a team that recently outscored 2 of the last 3
Stanley Cup champs 13-2, then lays a giant turd against the league’s worst
team, losing to one of the best teams 2 nights later by the same score. Then
they beat Anaheim, and if you read these reports every week, you know that’s my
team (though my Duck confidence is starting to waver).<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 16pt;">My Week 6 Results</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.<br /></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmgRYlhJ7ZDXycnj0guwmGsB0FHgLiMxclzZj_35qTe6lqlLUC4jIkFLHuC1jpqFG8p8fJtiSvAS0dcsXEKy2Yo8T-SWRcUNnoyFi94hyoobUgXQtNLVGz3_Pc6S9qw6FVMR1YDAaEvFwKG7VKmWJ4dW2OQimmLVnaxr-isWcszsJ0aL3ootj7cSHEjM2U/s553/Wk6A.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="275" data-original-width="553" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmgRYlhJ7ZDXycnj0guwmGsB0FHgLiMxclzZj_35qTe6lqlLUC4jIkFLHuC1jpqFG8p8fJtiSvAS0dcsXEKy2Yo8T-SWRcUNnoyFi94hyoobUgXQtNLVGz3_Pc6S9qw6FVMR1YDAaEvFwKG7VKmWJ4dW2OQimmLVnaxr-isWcszsJ0aL3ootj7cSHEjM2U/w400-h199/Wk6A.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">My strategy for the week was mostly small wagers looking
for value on underdogs, after getting stung by some stunning favorite upsets
lately. Yet as it turned out, this was not a good week to shun favorites and
start sniffing dogs. Dogs ML was my worst category, but for the upcoming week
I’m going to lean on road teams because that has worked out well in previous
week sevens, and investigating the upcoming schedule revealed that teams on the
road this week have done well as visitors in the current schedule. One area of
success for me was favorites -1.5 goals, which was a bad category overall. Most
of the credit for my gains goes to Boston and Colorado, where I was mostly
tailing models.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyZs2rKhP13z8tQauIJSP_Z9HEoXErosyNzgvEH_I1HXppvbQW_9_t7YLU-3uV0aMjvZcCR-feZgw0v1GNL27mDb_91L16vlgCgVICKjkMmqzSYa7ZVecd03NvH0NbLxJNexDO_le3_XwatFB76g4zF5sMOiyiE3SMQBGQzFib0iPC_fT9_MG7x36vFPPp/s659/wk5B.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="485" data-original-width="659" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyZs2rKhP13z8tQauIJSP_Z9HEoXErosyNzgvEH_I1HXppvbQW_9_t7YLU-3uV0aMjvZcCR-feZgw0v1GNL27mDb_91L16vlgCgVICKjkMmqzSYa7ZVecd03NvH0NbLxJNexDO_le3_XwatFB76g4zF5sMOiyiE3SMQBGQzFib0iPC_fT9_MG7x36vFPPp/w400-h295/wk5B.png" width="400" /></a></div></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">As you can see, my best two teams to bet were Boston
and Colorado, a fair chunk of that coming -1.5 goals. I’m not really venturing
over into pucklines unless multiple models agree with the decision. Riding solo
on those pucklines does not interest me, if anything I need to follow the
models in that direction more often. Almost all of Betting Venues profits are
coming from pucklines, whether that’s sustainable remains to be seen. One
favorite that burned me was Vegas, who was actually the best team to bet against.
I’m hoping that’s just a blip in the radar because they had been among my safe
havens.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The over/under chart for the week is directly below,
and it shows all my difficulty was picking over or under 6.5 goals. 67% of all
the opening totals on Draft Kings were 6.5. Overs went 24-20-1, producing $186
profit if you bet them all. New Jersey was the leader, with their overs going
3-0. My worst team was Columbus, losing <span style="color: red;">-$600</span>.
They played some low scoring teams that convinced Prime to bet the under, and
they went over. Then when they did play another high scoring team and Prime bet
double on the over, that was their one under.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR0F-lxMfG5NQPS2DS-WOXkinvUdomYsDf6Iehar1tDGLvy0xbrHXNqavmJZBma52vUeiL96vvKrIqDPq6mKgUYn7YfCd31z4eSvL45wwfj2PeoUy58_Ab7ldxqK8TYFlm9ZLYH87ryFG9clOB9QfQ74137Qz4KCJ3iMwA8y9CCTthOtVq__9Dd3G1KTOd/s674/wk6C.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="660" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgR0F-lxMfG5NQPS2DS-WOXkinvUdomYsDf6Iehar1tDGLvy0xbrHXNqavmJZBma52vUeiL96vvKrIqDPq6mKgUYn7YfCd31z4eSvL45wwfj2PeoUy58_Ab7ldxqK8TYFlm9ZLYH87ryFG9clOB9QfQ74137Qz4KCJ3iMwA8y9CCTthOtVq__9Dd3G1KTOd/w391-h400/wk6C.png" width="391" /></a></div><br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 16pt;">Me vs Myself</span></u></b></div></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The “Me vs Myself” section is where my performance is
compared to my models and once again Betting Venues soundly defeated me. You
may be wondering, if I know all the model picks before logging my own pick, how
is it they are beating me? That’s a great question. The biggest reason is that
it fearlessly lays large wagers on pucklines -1.5 goals, cleaning up on both
favorites and dogs, accounting for a large majority of the profit. My level of
risk aversion generally excludes me from that type of strategy. It’s amusing
that I have any risk aversion playing with pretend money, but also illuminates
why I’d be worse playing with real money. Everyone’s weekly results can be seen
below.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh177K5n9r9nFpQ_K760T_CYaxEd2BqJyz7fvHWL_X2Ol-fxqdcFLorA5F_3Zk5kBKnU0kbkdLYgUEGfSgH31fUYdxSzbgRsjMbZ9H9m-f7u1O2691d5aQJ5FrTZEadbgBaud6pvz3S1x_8MFalzAO0kNA2yDU_JIffs0456z3Id2NFUfnwQdtxj47Vcf9Y/s777/wk6D.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="527" data-original-width="777" height="434" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh177K5n9r9nFpQ_K760T_CYaxEd2BqJyz7fvHWL_X2Ol-fxqdcFLorA5F_3Zk5kBKnU0kbkdLYgUEGfSgH31fUYdxSzbgRsjMbZ9H9m-f7u1O2691d5aQJ5FrTZEadbgBaud6pvz3S1x_8MFalzAO0kNA2yDU_JIffs0456z3Id2NFUfnwQdtxj47Vcf9Y/w640-h434/wk6D.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />What’s amazing about the Betting Venues results was
nearly $4,000 profit on dogs and favorites -1.5 goals. But if you bet $100 on
every dog and fave -1.5 goals, you would have lost <span style="color: red;">-$1,500</span>.
It didn’t simply take advantage of a booming category, it knew exactly the
right ones to target, and pulled a huge return from two of the worst performing
cats. The reason my best category was favorites -1.5 when those had a bad week
is from tailing BEV. It might be time for me to start getting more adventurous
with pucklines, at least until these model picks stop cashing.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Game Sum model is only 2 weeks old and had another
bad performance (it was up over $3,000 mid-week then nosedived the back half).
I may tweak the decision matrix but I’m going to let the sample size build up
first to see where it most deficient and adjust for specific weaknesses. I’m
still interested in the advice it’s offering because when it says home -1.5
goals, it means that’s been a profitable category in games involving one of
these two teams. It lost nearly <span style="color: red;">-$2,000</span> just
betting Islander games, then suffered another setback with Vancouver and
Anaheim regressing. Shorting Travel had a bad week, but it’s a small sample so
I’m not raising any alarms quite yet.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p> <br /></o:p></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">This section usually features all my picks for
Tuesday, including my model picks, but sadly there are no games scheduled
tomorrow. The lines are up for Wednesday and it’s going to be a busy slate.
Instead of rushing to cram them all into my report making this exceedingly
long, I’ll work on my picks tonight and send a subscriber picks email Tuesday
morning (pacific time). I’d like to start providing more over/under information
now that I’ve expanded my algorithms and tracking, but that was just finished
today and may not be ready tomorrow. It will be coming soon. If you don’t
subscribe and want the picks, it’s free to join.<br /></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;"><o:p> <br /><div style="text-align: center;"><b><u><span style="font-size: 16pt;">Team By Team Profitability Rankings</span></u></b></div></o:p></span></div><div style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: left;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;"><span style="font-size: 21.3333px;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></span><span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-CA;">
These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.<br /> </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 13.0pt;"><o:p> <br /><br /></o:p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUw-IbkKaxlzdEJkFy6EHW4djIYr1iPmng4DY6qoPV8JuMuZNMsUWtZ9SsyK-2IihXcDyPvDYGC9lu5bNaZ45c4x8n7QwPNy8duhxHcaFEyIfHm3mLS-ES5cxw5E5yDyRy0q3DFhHSXX72G8gd3BKEwTCVkJiRRBHnqEJxr__scoXXKGUAL59mKT3cYl4K/s714/Wk6PR.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="714" data-original-width="577" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUw-IbkKaxlzdEJkFy6EHW4djIYr1iPmng4DY6qoPV8JuMuZNMsUWtZ9SsyK-2IihXcDyPvDYGC9lu5bNaZ45c4x8n7QwPNy8duhxHcaFEyIfHm3mLS-ES5cxw5E5yDyRy0q3DFhHSXX72G8gd3BKEwTCVkJiRRBHnqEJxr__scoXXKGUAL59mKT3cYl4K/w518-h640/Wk6PR.png" width="518" /></a></div><br /></span></div>
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