2023/24 Week 22 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

Week 22 of the NHL season is here and I have some streaming targets. The award for best schedule this week goes to the New York Rangers, who are going to be very busy with 5 matches in 7 days. The Blue Jackets had the next best schedule in terms of opponent goal allowing, while the Winnipeg Jets are the only team playing on all 4 light nights (Kings and Blues each have 3). As always, make sure you can actually fit a streamer into your starting line-up before adding. 

My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
 
1) Alexis Lafreniere, NYR, (42% Yahoo ownership): The New York Rangers have a 5-game week coming up, and former first overall pick Alexis Lafreniere plays 2nd line with Artemi Panarin, along with power play two. He has received a few plugs here this season, finally starting to deliver on his high pedigree. In his last 12 GP, Lafreniere has 9 PTS (1 on the power play) with 37 shots and 10 hits. He’s pacing for 51 PTS, is available in more than half of Yahoo leagues, and eligible at both wings. If you’d rather have the player drafted 3 spots later (and has 23 more career PTS in 60 fewer GP), Lucas Raymond in Detroit has scored 10 PTS in his last 12 GP (again outpacing Lafreniere) with 21 shots and 10 hits. Wings play 4. I’m still a little jaded Detroit lost that lottery…
 
2) Quentin Byfield, LA, (47% Yahoo ownership): What else can I say about Quentin Byfield that hasn’t already been said in one of the other 10(ish) plugs he has received here this season? He’s eligible at all 3 forward positions, plays line one and power play one (I did see him on line 3 with Dubois at one point recently, but he’s back up top), scoring 12 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 14 games with 31 shots and 20 hits. Delivering in multiple categories, super flexible positioning and available in more than half of leagues, with Kings playing 3 light nights. Another player plugged here frequently recently is Sean Monahan, who will be playing 4 games on light nights, plays line 2 and power play 1, scoring 8 goals (9 PTS, 3 PP) in his last 12 GP, with 32 shots.

3) Shayne Gostisbehere, Det, (61% Yahoo ownership): The Red Wings might be missing their high-end first line center, but they’ll be playing 4 games against non-playoff teams this week, and at least 2 of them have been leaking lately. The power play may have lost some potency without Larkin doing his elite first unit centering, but Shayne Gostisbhere does an effective job quarterbacking the unit. In his last 12 games, Ghost has 8 PTS (3 on the PP) with 26 shots. If you’d rather a blueliner who delivers more hitting, K’Andre Miller will be playing 5 games and has 5 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 12 GP with 12 shots and 25 hits. It been a minute since his last plug here, but he’s popped on the radar from time to time.

4) Michael Bunting, Pit, (27% Yahoo ownership): Micheal Bunting was already nominated for my watchlist as a member of the Carolina Hurricanes, but was traded to another 4-game team, and Daily Faceoff has him slated to play on the top line with Sidney Crosby and PP1. It remains to be seen how long it takes to develop chemistry between the two, but they might be a great match. Bunting had not been hot prior to the move, scoring just 5 PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 12 GP, but the 36 shots is nice for people in category leagues. If you’d rather someone hotter, it doesn’t get much warmer than Dylan Strome, scoring 17 PTS (7 on the PP) in his last 13 GP, with 23 shots. Washington does have a tougher schedule.
 
5) Frederik Andersen, Car, (71% Yahoo ownership): While Freddy is owned in more leagues than my normal upper limit in these reports, this is just letting everyone know to have a look on your waiver wire to see if he happens to be there. I managed to grab him in one on a $5 bid (for context, I had spent $1 of my $100 waiver budget to this point), dropping Connor Ingram. Not sure what his start share will be or if he can even stay healthy, but he’s worth a shot for the chance he’ll resume his role as their #1 guy. Spencer Martin has played well, so Kochetkov could get sent down again (warning if you’re holding him, but hang on for now). Another option more widely available is Jonathan Quick, with Rangers playing 5 and one of the best teams. Quick has a .905 SV% in the last 30 days and will get at least 2 starts.
 
Honorable Mentions: Sean Monahan, Lucas Raymond, Jonathan Quick, K’Andre Miller
 
Last Week: Gustav Nyquist, Rickard Rakell, Noah Hanifin, Charlie Coyle, Anthony Stolarz 
 
 
Best Deep League Adds (under 26% ownership):
 
1) Jack Roslovic, NYR, (4% Yahoo ownership): Jack Roslovic was already nominated for this list as a member of the Columbus Blue Jackets, getting plugged here last week because Columbus was giving him line 1, PP1 duty showcasing him for trade. He was traded to the Rangers, who have a 5-game week coming, and Daily Faceoff has Roslovic penciled onto the top line with Zibanejad and Kreider. Jack was hot in Columbus before the deal, scoring 13 PTS in his last 13 GP with 44 shots, eligible at center and RW. One guy safe from deadline talk because nobody wants his contract is Ryan Strome, but he’s been productive with 10 PTS (7 on the PP) in his last 12 GP with 18 shots and 10 hits, eligible at both wings.

2) Fabian Zetterlund, SJ, (2% Yahoo ownership): If I told you there was a guy available in 98% of leagues, playing line 1, power play 1, with 6 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 5 GP, adding 15 shots, is that something you might be interested in? The Sharks just shipped out several pieces, so there will be plenty of ice time available for Fabian Zetterlund to stretch his legs. They have a 4-game week coming up, ranking as the 5th best schedule by total opponent goal leakage. He generated substantial buzz at one point in his New Jersey career, then faded into the shadows until now. If you bought the Koolaid I just sold you, can I interest you in his center? Mikael Granlund (who is also eligible at RW) has 9 PTS (6 on the PP) in his last 11 GP with 22 shots.

3)  Alex Nylander, Cbj, (3% Yahoo ownership): Alex Nylander was recently traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, and in 7 games is averaging 15:16 ice time, listed on the third line and top power play. The departure of Roslovic could create an opening for Nylander on line 1, or they leave him in the current role because it’s been clicking. In his last 7 GP, Nylander has 7 PTS (1 on the PP) and 20 shots. He’s eligible at both wings, was a highly regarded prospect once upon a time and BJs have a few weak opponents ahead. If you’d rather have an established veteran, Max Pacioretty has 5 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 6 GP with 15 shots and 13 hits. He’s healthy, playing line 2,power play 1, and he’s putting up numbers, available in 85% of Yahoo leagues.
 
4) Matt Roy, LA, (24% Yahoo ownership): Matt Roy is another guy plugged here often this season, who I’m reasonably sure has been on my watchlist every week LA played 4 games, but going back to check would not be worth the effort. The reason he keeps popping up is continued production across multiple categories. In his last 14 GP, Roy has 6 PTS with 19 shots, 30 hits, and a +7. It’s not a high offensive ceiling, but he checks a few other boxes for those of you in category leagues (or any format counting hits). Another more widely available blueline option is Ryan Pulock, who has 6 PTS (2 on the PP) with 24 shots and 22 hits in his last 12 GP. He might have been top billing here if not for the Isles difficult schedule.
 
5) Laurent Brossoit, Wpg, (24% Yahoo ownership): The Jets have an appealing schedule coming up, and there’s a very high probably Brossoit will be getting the call March 15 vs Anaheim. In all likelihood that will be his only start, but with Anaheim banged up and moving out players, it could be an easy win. Brossoit continues playing well with a .906 SV% and 3 wins in his last 4 starts. If your risk tolerance is higher and need a little more volume, the New Jersey Devils just added Jake Allen and Kaapo Kahkonen, both of whom have struggled last 30 days and are arguably heading to a worse defensive environment, but Devils play 4 (the risk is Rangers, Stars, and Golden Knights) and these two should split the duty. Pick your poison or add both if desperate. It’s not impossible Allen suddenly gets good with a change of scenery.
 
Honorable Mentions: Ryan Strome, Mikael Granlund, Max Pacioretty, Jake Allen, Ryan Pulock
 
Last Week: Torey Krug, Tyler Bertuzzi, Matthew Knies, Philipp Grubauer, Jack Roslovic
 

2023/24 Week 21 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

Week 21 of the NHL season is 1 day away and I’m looking ahead at potential streaming targets. The award for best schedule this week goes to the Chicago Blackhawks, who play 4 times, twice against the painfully leaky Arizona Coyotes on a 14-game skid. None of the 4-game teams play 3 light nights, with a majority playing just one, so as always, make sure you can actually fit a streamer into your starting line-up before adding. 
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

You can also see my February Fantasy Awards at the bottom of this post.
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
 
1) Gustav Nyquist, Nsh, (35% Yahoo ownership): Gustav Nyquist has been plugged on this report repeatedly this season, mostly due to his line one power play one assignment and excelling in that role. The winger is scoring at nearly a 70-point pace, including 14 PTS in his last 12 GP, 3 of those PTS on the PP. The biggest drawback being the 14 shots and 4 hits in those 11 games, diminishing his appeal in category leagues. They play 4 times (only 1 light night) and none of their upcoming opponents currently occupy a playoff spot. If you need more shots and hits, Sam Bennett has 31 and 29 in his last 11 GP. I’ll be considering him in a league where I’ve got MacKinnon playing all light nights, so should be able to start Bennett.
 
2) Rickard Rakell, Pit, (37% Yahoo ownership): The injury situation in Pittsburgh has created a line one, power play one opportunity for Rakell to play alongside Sidney Crosby. Pittsburgh has the 2nd best schedule by total opponent goals allowed, but only 1 light night. In his last 7 games, Ricky has 7 PTS (1 on the PP) with 20 shots and 15 hits. He’s a multi-category contributor, with an easy schedule and prime deployment. He played 21 minutes in their last game against Seattle. Another option with a strong schedule is Boone Jenner, eligible at both LW and center. In his last 9 GP, Boone has scored 9 PTS (2 on the PP) with 33 shots and 23 hits, centering the top line and the top power play.
 
3) Noah Hanifin, Cgy, (63% Yahoo ownership): Noah Hanifin is currently among the most discussed NHL players given his pending UFA status and the Flames perilously close to embracing a full rebuild. He could be traded any day, possibly to a team with fewer games than Calgary. In his last 10 GP, Hanifin has 9 PTS (3 on the power play) with 27 shots and a +7. The Flames play 5 games, twice on light nights, the downside being they’ll face some defensively stingy opponents, so points could be tougher to accumulate. Hanifin also doesn’t hit much, but one option who does is Jeremy Lauzon, who is on both my teams, both category leagues that count hits. J.L has 60 hits in his last 11 GP, adding 3 PTS.

4) Charlie Coyle, Bos, (54% Yahoo ownership): The Bruins have reunited the top line of Coyle-Pastrnak-Marchand, at least according to Daily Faceoff, but the coach seems to like shaking up the lines regularly, so keep an eye on how long this persists. In his last 12 GP, Coyle has scored 8 PTS (4 on the power play) adding 19 shots and 19 hits. He did recently have a 5-game pointless drought, but followed that up with 5 PTS in 5 GP. The center-only eligibility is the only reason his ownership has stayed this low, even shrinking in the last few weeks. If you need a winger, Jonathan Huberdeau has quietly been heating up in Calgary, scoring 11 PTS (4 on the PP) in his last 10 GP, adding 18 shots and 11 hits.
 
5) Anthony Stolarz, Fla, (23% Yahoo ownership): While Stolarz technically belongs in the deep league section of this report, he’s a more appealing streaming option for me in the week ahead than anyone in the 25% to 65% ownership range. The Panthers will be playing 4 times and Stolarz has been outstanding in the last 30 days, with 3 wins and a .944 SV% in his last 4 starts. It appears the coach is starting to allocate more frequent starts, and it would make sense not to burn out Bobrovsky in the 4th quarter leading to playoffs. They’ll be facing teams who can score this week, so it’s not without risk, but Florida might be the league’s best. Petr Mrazek was the next best candidate given Chicago’s schedule, but it’s a pair of back-to-backs and Soderblom is likely to draw both Arizona starts (leaving Mrazek with Colorado and Washington).
 
Honorable Mentions: Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau, Boone Jenner, Jeremy Lauzon, Petr Mrazek
 
Last Week: Gabe Vilardi, Thomas Chabot, Mason Marchment, Bryan Rust, Joonas Korpisalo
 
 
Best Deep League Adds (under 26% ownership):
 
1) Torey Krug, Stl, (26% Yahoo ownership): Torey Krug has blipped my radar several times this season, as his offensive output is much improved over last year. The Blues have a few dangerous forwards that can put the puck in the net if the D can consistently hit them with passes up ice. In his last 10 GP, Krug has scored 10 PTS (4 on the PP) with 19 shots and 7 hits. It's not a particularly appealing schedule for St. Louis, but not so bad that he can’t collect some points on that Blues top unit power play. If you’d rather use that last D spot to accrue some hitting, Simon Benoit is a good option in Toronto with 53 in his last 12 games. Giordano and Liljegren are injured, so the Lyubushkin acquisition shouldn’t hurt Benoit this week.

2) Tyler Bertuzzi, Tor, (23% Yahoo ownership): Tyler Bertuzzi briefly received a plug here recently, but was struck off the page 24 hours later after a 3rd period benching. Well Tyler has redeemed himself, earning a spot on the Leafs second line with William Nylander and their top power play unit. He has 7 PTS in his last 7 GP (6 of those goals) with 3 of those points coming on the power play. Toronto has scored at least 4 goals in 7 of their last 8 games, so that’s a nice offense to tap, even playing twice on light nights. Another guy heating up (sort of) on an elite team’s top unit power play is Morgan Geekie, eligible at C and RW, scoring 6 PTS in his last 7 GP (3 of those coming same game, all goals) with 12 shots and 8 hits.

3) Matthew Knies, Tor, (12% Yahoo ownership): Having already pumped the Leafs as a team to target, we need to mention Matthew Knies, who continues to play on the top line with Marner and Matthew, but is not currently listed on their power play. In his last 12 games, the young winger has accumulated 9 PTS with 21 shots and 28 hits. It’s a cheap way to collect a few Matthews residuals, hoping the heater continues. Meanwhile, Knies teammate Bobby McMann might not be playing top line or power play, but he does have 10 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 12 GP with 31 shots, 28 hits, and a +8, currently on line 3 with Tavares (though only eligible at center). Excellent addition for category leagues with shots and hits.

4) Philipp Grubauer, Sea, (22% Yahoo ownership): As Joey Daccord shareholders are surely already painfully aware, Phil Grubauer is back from injury and playing fantastic. Daccord surely earned respect from the coach for holding the fort admirably in Phil’s absence, but in 5 games since his return, Grubauer has 4 wins with a .947 SV%. Forget that his salary is substantially higher and management surely wants their money’s worth, at this level of success the other factors don’t really matter, you need to ride the hot hand. Seattle only plays 3 times, but this is a potential longer-term play. Another option is Calvin Pickard, who should get a start this weekend at least 1 next week. The SV% has been bad, but he wins most of his starts on a powerhouse team.
 
5) Jack Roslovic, Cbj, (2% Yahoo ownership): This might be Jack Roslovic’s first appearance this season where he has scored at a pedestrian 42-point pace, mostly playing down the line-up when not injured. He’s a pending UFA and the Columbus Blue Jackets are trying to sell him by the deadline, which is probably the whole reason he’s currently playing line one and power play one, trying to boost demand. The production is up, with 8 PTS in his last 8 GP, which began immediately after ice time was significantly increased. He’s 98% available. Another option is my guy Nick Schmaltz, though the scoring pace is down roughly 20 PTS from last season, but Arizona plays 4 and he’s still playing line one and power play one with 4 PTS in his last 5 GP.
 
Honorable Mentions: Morgan Geekie, Bobby McMann, Nick Schmaltz, Simon Benoit, Calvin Pickard
 
Last Week: Anton Forsberg, Shane Pinto, Rasmus Sandin, JJ Peterka, Dylan Guenther
  

February Fantasy Awards

 
February MVF
 
Who was the most valuable forward of the month?
 
Connor McDavid    COL
Auston Matthews       TOR
William Nylander       TOR
 
 
February MVD
 
Who was the most valuable defenseman of the month?
 
Roman Josi              NSH
Evan Bouchard         EDM
Josh Morrissey         WPG
 
 
February MVG
 
Who was the most valuable goalie of the month?
 
Igor Shesterkin        NYR
Sergei Bobrovsky     FLA
Juuse Saros                NSH
 
 
Stock Rocket Award
 
Player with biggest increase in fantasy ownership.
 
Juraj Slafkovsky     MTL   +30%
Gabe Vilardi              WPG   +19%
Mason Marchment   DAL    +19%
Thomas Harley         DAL    +18%
Wyatt Johnston         DAL    +16%
UP Luukkonen         BUF    +16%
Sean Monahan          WPG   +15%
Alexis Lafreniere     NYR   +14%
Anthony Stolarz       FLA    +14%
Pyotr Kochetkov      CAR    +13%
 
 
Stock Plunger Award
 
Healthy(ish) player with the biggest drop in fantasy ownership.
 
Joel Farabee              PHI     -21%
Y. Sharangovich       CGY   -19%
Connor Ingram         ARI     -17%
Martin Jones             TOR    -17%
Jonathan Drouin       COL    -16%
Oliver Bjorkstrand   SEA    -16%
Eeli Tolvanen            SEA    -15%
Carter Hart                PHI     -14%
Nikolaj Ehlers           WPG -14%
Brayden Schenn       STL     -12%
 
 
Jonathan Huberdeau Award
 
Player most below my point projection (full season, not just February).
 
Connor Brown         EDM  -29.8 PTS
Tage Thompson        BUF  -22.6 PTS
Lukas Reichel           CHI  -22.5 PTS
 
 
Pleasant Surprise Award
 
Player most exceeding my point projection (full season, not just February).
 
Evan Bouchard       EDM   +25.9 PTS
Noah Dobson             NYI     +22.7 PTS
Blake Coleman         CGY   +22.6 PTS
 
 
Simon Edvinsson Award
 
Player I’m most disappointed to see in the minors.
 
Simon Edvinsson    DET
Spencer Knight         FLA
Devon Levi               BUF
 
 

2023/24 Week 18 Betting Report

Week 18 of the NHL season has been logged into the history books, as the hockey world begins setting its sights on the trade deadline and all the ensuing roster volatility. As we brace ourselves for a transfer of talent from the bottom half of the standings to the top, I’m busy retrofitting all my models to the 2021/22 and 2022/23 seasons to prepare for a strong fourth quarter and ultimately playoffs. Right now, just betting the biggest position my models are collectively betting seems to be better than any one model. We’ll see though, as building a more intelligent aggregators was a big factor compelling me to undertake this renovation. The biggest position may not always be optimal.
 
Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’m repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. Subscribers will also receive weekly picks emails that are not posted on my blog. If you like what you see in the picks below, you can have many more delivered directly to your inbox.
 
My Weekly Profit: $338
My Season Profit: $7,104
 
My Sunday Preview outlined a major project that dominated my weekend and still requires more work. Roughly 2/3 of my models were already fit to the 2 previous seasons (recording wagers in each), and once the whole team has a big historical database of picks, the applications are exciting. First and foremost, I’ll be able to fit new versions of Max Profit and the Grand Aggregator with more complex decision making, optimized to a much larger sample. The models that were not optimized to past years were fit to much smaller samples, which made them unstable and more prone to wild swings.
 
My Shorting Goalies model is one requiring some grunt work to retrofit, but it has been performing very well in its current version thus far in the 3rd quarter. Retrofitting that model required a projected probability of either goalie starting and obviously travelling backwards in time to make predictions before those games was played is off the table for at least a few more years. However, assigning a probability of either goalie starting based on what happened in the last 10 games was easy. This involved checking hundreds of permutations spread across 3,500 games, so saving it as a permanent model to use for projecting starters is probably not worth the effort in its current form. My brain is very effective at projecting starters (with some exceptions).
 
The Goalies Last 30 days retrofit is finished and the model is now online, along with Tailing History 3.0. Tails was just retrofit to the 2023/24 season 3 weeks ago, but it would have been the same amount of work to refit including past seasons, and I’m mad at myself for not thinking to do that originally. Version 2.0 was only using the previous 2 seasons (to exclude 2021), which meant that my historical database was big enough to fit this to 2021/22 and 2022/23. Anyway, Tails 2.0 was already one of the top models in the third quarter, but Tails 3.0 is even better (currently first place in my Q3 rankings). Both versions bet the same side in most games, but 3.0 has better fine tuning.
 
 
My Team of the Week: New York Rangers, +$828
 
Last week the New York Rangers were dead last in my Profitability Rankings, but they pulled themselves out of the basement going undefeated last week. Though it should be noted, it took overcoming a 2-goal deficit in the 3rd period against the Islanders Sunday that made all this possible (they were #2 in my weekly ranks heading into Sunday). That bet looked dead in the water until I Tweeted “Damned Rangers…” with a pensive emoji that I’m reasonably convinced reverse jinxed them to victory. The same trick helped the Avs overcome a deficit against the Coyotes later that same day (and Edmonton as I’m finishing this post).
 
This was one of my better weeks betting Washington games after a horrific 2nd quarter. The main contributor was going 2-0 on their overs, as their goaltending has struggled while the offense has picked up some steam. Ovechkin is starting to score again, which is putting him back on track chasing 99. Darcy Kuemper has been outperforming Charlie Lindgren, but neither have been good. They lost 6-3 to Colorado then beat Montreal 4-3. Even with the improved offense, they’ve only won 2 of their last 10 games, so I’m really only betting them to win against worse teams.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Anaheim Ducks, -$700
 
The Anaheim Ducks were my biggest spoiler in the last 7 days, picking the wrong outcome on all but one of my wagers (the over in their 9-2 loss to Toronto). They won when I bet them to lose and lost badly when I bet them +1.5 goals. They lost 5-0 to Montreal, then beat Ottawa 5-1, then lost to the Leafs 9-2. Where the loss against Montreal convinced me to pick the Senators, then the win against Ottawa convinced me to take them +1.5 against Toronto and they were demolished. It was a vicious cycle. They have the ability to punch above their weight when the going is good, but in some match-ups have a week chin leading to easy knockouts.
 
The LA Kings were my second worst team of the week, with most of the damage coming from over/under, mostly a max bet on under 6 goals when they lost 7-0 to Buffalo. There was also my Sunday over 6.5 when Cam Talbot was starting, but Cam had his first good game in a long time, his first win since Dec 23, his first time allowing 1 goal or less since Dec 7. Losing the Penguins moneyline bet with the Kings on a back-to-back and Talbot starting felt like slam dunk, but there are no sure things in hockey (well except for Colorado at home beating teams on a back-to-back, which we’ll get to later).
 

My Week 18 Results

 
*Note* “Overall Market Bets” based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 
 

My decision to bet more underdogs +1.5 goals after a good performance last week was exactly the wrong thing to do, at least initially, going 0-3 Monday and Tuesday with picks shared in my reports before hitting my next 3 in a row. Still, road teams and favorites -1.5 goals were big winners (if you bet every visitor -1.5 goals (even dogs) you banked more than $1,500). If you like betting against tired teams with a rest disadvantage, you surely lost money this past week, since teams with a rest advantage went 0-7 against opponents who played yesterday. Fortunately, there were fewer opportunities than usual to short back-to-backs, otherwise your losses could have been much worse. I’m hoping that’s temporary variance and not an emerging trend, because my models love shorting btb.
 
Last week saw unders perform very well as leaguewide save percentage spiked up to .910 the week after the all-star break, which was just temporary as it was .895 in the last 7 days (which ranked as the 3rd worst in 18 weeks). Several of my algorithms had a good week, which is a little surprising when there was a shift in the scoring trend. When the total was 6.5 on the opening line, overs went 13-9. When the total was 6, unders went 8-7-4. My performance on under 6.5 was bad, but still generated $360 profit betting over/under this week, following my Small Council of algorithms in every game but one (which they were right and I was wrong, the Talbot over).
 

Edmonton overs were back with a vengeance after an extended hot streak by the unders, as their penalty killing recently transitioned from elite to awful. The best team to bet against overall was the Calgary Flames (for me as well), as their little post-all-star mini-hot streak after the Lindholm trade appears to be over. Jacob Markstrom was human in his last 2 starts, getting yanked against Detroit. The Panthers were the best team to bet on, followed by the San Jose Sharks. Granted, they’re only there because they beat Calgary 6-3 as a +320 dog, hitting the alt puckline at +665. They lost their other games, so don’t look at that and start aggressively betting the Sharks.
 
 

Team By Team Profitability Rankings

These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
 

Me vs Myself

 
The “Me vs Myself” section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me vs my creations. If you are new here and don’t know how the rest of the models work, there’s a link for that. Typically, this is where I would share my model performance from that last week alongside the quarterly standings, however due to the ongoing remodeling, not all the current numbers are from the new versions of each model, and I’m also planning an overhaul of Max Profit and the aggregators once I’m done fitting the others to past seasons.
 
This was a bad week for my Hedge Fund that bets against line value, but I’m not worried about that because two of them received upgrades this weekend and the composite model is going to be optimized to the historical data after the retrofit is complete (Grand Aggregator too). Instead of just betting the largest position proportional to the amount, there can be specific instructions for different scenarios. So, if >60% of the money is invested in HML and 30% is VML, it might make a different pick than if it’s 60% HML and 30% H-1.5. It was on version 1.0, but once there is a large historical sample of games where all the fund members have recorded picks, then it’s easier to identify the most profitable wagers.
 
The two models leading my 3rd quarter tournament are Tailing History 3.0 and Goalies Last 30 Days 2.0, both recently retrofit. Shorting Goalies 1.0 is in 4th place behind the Grand Aggregator, but is still scheduled for a retrofit this afternoon. Shorting Travel and Game Sum 2.0 both had bad weeks and fell off the leaderboard (which I’m defining as the top 9 models who share their bets in my pick graphics. You’ll notice the order changing each time I do a new report, as I’m recalibrating constantly to have the best at the top.
 
 

Tomorrow’s Picks

 
Monday was busier than normal, leading to a quieter Tuesday, but at least there are a few intriguing match-ups (which doesn’t necessarily mean lucrative to bet, but entertaining to follow). My models had an exceptionally good Saturday as a collective, if you picked based on % they invested in each outcome. The good news is all those picks were shared late Friday night if you follow me on Twitter (as I assume most of you do). My own week was going poorly until Saturday, mostly tailing my top models. Goalies Last 30 Days 2.0 is now officially automated.
 
 
NJ @ WSH:
 

My models love New Jersey -1.5 goals (soliciting 72% of their total investment), and goalie Nico Daws has delivered 4 quality starts in a row, winning 3 of them, all by at least 2 goals. I’m going to tail on that Devils puckline at +164. There’s a chance this could be Akira Schmid or possibly Vanecek, but I think they’ll ride the hot hand against a divisional opponent battling with them for a wildcard (they’re only 4 PTS up on Washington). I’m also comfortably taking over 6.5 goals, getting a nice price at +110. That’s at least a little insurance to one of the other goalies starting.
 
 
OTT @ FLA:
 

The Florida Panthers might be the best team in the NHL and the Ottawa Senators are playing Tampa today. The Sens are scrappy, and have the talent to upset any given team any given night, but since my models are overwhelmingly on Florida 48% ML 37% PL, I’m making a max bet split between the Panthers ML -230 (60%) and the PL -105 (40%). The Sens ability to punch above their weight is why I’m not going all in PL. I’m also going to make a max bet on under 6.5 goals and am getting a nice price at +105.
 
 
DAL @ NYR:
 

The Dallas Stars played Boston today and thus it will be Scott Wedgewood in goal tomorrow. That alone was enough to put me on New York, bolstered by my models taking a 57% position on Rangers ML at -142. Dallas is still one of the best teams in the league, so I’m only making a minimum wager. There was a 3-2 vote on under 6.5 goals, but I’m very uncomfortable with that recommendation. Might be a stay away. Both these teams can score.
 
 
NYI @ PIT:
 

This game was a candidate to skip, given my models are split down the middle and these are two teams I’ve struggled to figure out. NYI ML at +120 was ultimately beat out Pens ML as the largest position 23% to 22%. My two best models like the Penguins, but the next 7 are taking the Isles. I might do better flipping a coin to decide my wager, but am going to take the Isles ML because there’s a higher payout. Under 6 goals passed by a 3-2 vote, but the two taking over are performing poorly on that bet with these teams last 30 days (12 games had less than 6 goals, while only 6 games had more.).
 
 
MIN @ WPG:
 

Both these teams play today, so this will be Marc-Andre Fleury vs Laurent Brossoit. The largest model position is the Minnesota ML at 36%, but 64% of the total money is on Winnipeg (when I build a smarter version of the Grand Aggregator this week (hopefully), situations like this will be accounted for). I’m just putting a minimum wager on the Wild ML +136 because Fleury has been excellent in the last 6 weeks, much better than Brossoit (.952 SV% last 30 days vs .902). Under 6 goals only passed by a 3-2 vote, but the two dissenting voices are getting destroyed betting over 6.4 with these teams last 30 days. These teams combined to play 17 games in the last 30 days, 12 went under 6, only 3 went over 6, with 2 pushes. Give me the under, as both back-up goalies are above average.
 
VAN @ COL:
 

This puts me in a difficult position as both teams are high on my list of favorites to pick, but the fact that Vancouver just played Minnesota (who has some big bodies who like to throw their weight around) and are flying up to Denver tonight is a big selling point. The Canucks are a very good team, but I’m going to take the Avs ML at -148, with a large wager considering the Canucks are first place in the NHL. Why? Colorado is 13-1 with a back-to-back advantage on home ice since October 2019. Heading up to altitude when you’re already gassed is bad for recovery. Under 6.5 goals passed by a 3-2 vote, but those taking the under are losing money on that wager with these teams last 30 days. Canucks just lost 10-7, and that data was not used in the computation above. Maybe stay away from that one.
 
 
NSH @ VEG:
 

While I’ll confess to a crisis of confidence in the Nashville Predators lately, I love betting against home teams on back-to-backs who flew home last night. Maybe that’s less of an advantage if the Preds spent the night in Vegas enjoying the nightlife (if I have any subscribers who live in Vegas and plugged into the high-end party scene, I’d love tips when specific teams are in the process of catching the Vegas flu). My models are 56% on the Nashville moneyline +124, so that’s my pick as well. Though if this turns out to be Kevin Lankinen against Adin Hill, my confidence declines. But that would also make me feel better about over 5.5 goals. This should have been a 5-0 vote, but Game Sum did not have a sample of games with a 5.5 total involving either team last 30 days (it was programmed with ties bet under). That might also mean that the line should not be 5.5. I expect this to reach 6 by puck drop (I actually just checked and it already moved to 6).
 
 
CBJ @ LA:
 

My initial thought looking at this game was the Kings getting home from a 6-game road trip, and are among the worst teams in the league in this situation since October 2019. Yet Shorting Travel is abstaining because it doesn’t bet road longshots. No sense me tailing that angle when that specific model won’t even follow. I’ll put a small wager on Kings ML -258, even though that feels like a crazy price for a team that had lost 14 of 17 games before the all-star break. At least they are 4-1 since the break under the new coach. Also give me under 6.5 goals, which only passed with a 3-2 vote.