Welcome to my first inaugural attempt at predicting the outcomes of a free agency class 1 year before they’re set to reach the open market. This will follow a similar method to my 2023 predictions, combining an algorithm with a comparables search, and choosing what I think the final outcome is most likely to be. It’s impossible for the smartest human or artificial intelligence to reverse engineer a mathematical formula from my predictions with 100% correlation unless my instincts are precisely quantifiable.
One key difference between my 2023 and 2024 lists was the construction of a completely new “comparables database” that took stat lines of players who became free agents 1 year later along with the deals they eventually signed. Although one potential flaw was not distinguishing between those who signed extensions 1 year early and those who played out an additional season before reaching the open market. Had this been a database of players who signed summer extension, it surely would have been more accurate, but with a smaller sample size. It tends to be higher-end players who get long extensions 1 year early. Whereas those who make the league minimum probably want to see how the upcoming season plays out before accepting minimum wage.
This is just my preliminary list with updates planned for September and December. The objective is to have logged a prediction for every potential free agent and not missing out if Auston Matthews signs early. This list will be updated at the end of the summer to include players who signed 1-year deals in Free Agency 2023.
To view my 2023 free agency predictions, click here.
RFA Forwards
UFA Defense
RFA Defense
Goalies
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