Welcome to my 2023 Fantasy
Hockey Draft Bargains list, formerly known as my sleeper list until that
angered a fantasy purist who was upset the term was being in such a way that
violated the collectively agreed upon definition of “sleeper”. To the purist,
the player must be asleep and on the verge of breaking out. Once a breakout has
occurred, it’s a violation of fantasy law to henceforth refer to them as a
“sleeper”. My definition of the word was always players you can get later in
drafts that return excellent value relative to that pick. The player doesn’t
need to be the one sleeping, sometimes it is fantasy managers taking the
siesta.
Semantics aside, these are my
top draft bargains, based on over 60 mock drafts. I don’t just want to look at
ADP (average draft position) on Yahoo as my guide for what round is appropriate
for each player, I want to study a range of outcomes, which allows me to
compute how often the player slips into the range I’m willing to take them. My
sleepers and busts are all about where people are actually picking each player,
which are different on non-Yahoo sites. You may not be able to get these
players at these recommendations on Fantrax or ESPN. Sorry, I only play on
Yahoo, which is incredibly flawed at making rankings, but generally user
friendly and the place where the most people seem to play.
My many mock drafts were only
12-team leagues. If you’d like to see the players I picked the most often and
the average pick taken, check out my Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheet. If you’d like to know where you should rank everyone
on Yahoo to draft the best team possible, check out my Pre-Draft Rankings. I don’t want to publish a bargains list catering only to those
playing in 12-team leagues, even though that’s by far the most common format.
Many of my followers are dedicated fantasy players who play in deeper leagues
than that, and there are recommendations here for people in all formats.
Standard leagues, players under 40% owned, and some under 10% owned. There are
52 names total, only 4 above 75% owned. They may not all be “sleepers”, but most
are far from wide awake.
If you’d like to check out my
list from last year, click here.
There were some sensational bargains there, that I exploited myself, advancing
to the championship in both my leagues, winning one. I’m sorry again for
recommending Elvis Merzlikins and October John Gibson, but goalies are a fickle
thing. At least those were players I was recommending as late round flyers that
wouldn’t hurt you if they missed. Caufield and Werenski missed most of the
season with injury, which is precisely why they are back for sloppy seconds.
These aren’t all home runs (a few were grand slams), but they’re also mainly later
round recommendations. Most of these won’t hurt you if they’re indeed snoozers.
Good luck! Subscribe to my Substack (for free) and you’ll get email notification for all my weekly Fantasy
Reports as new bargains pop up throughout the season.
Standard Leagues: (over 40% owned)
Zach Werenski, D, Cbj, (50% Yahoo ownership): Prudence demands that the first name on my sleeper
list be the guy I have taken more than any other in mock drafts, Zach Werenski
(second place was Mo Seider, but his ADP is not a bargain). Werenski has an ADP
of 160 on Yahoo, but that’s entirely because Yahoo buried him in their
rankings, so he’s not even showing up in most people’s queues. I picked him 18
times at an average of 146, but have him projected for more PTS than many blueline
options 50 picks earlier. He missed most of last season with injury, which is
another reason he’s slipping in drafts. He generally started coming off the
board around pick 118 and he’s at 125 in my rankings.
Patrick Laine, LW/RW, Cbj, (77% Yahoo ownership): Laine was a player
of interest for me last season as I imagined him and Gaudreau developing a
wonderful chemistry as a combination that could finally exploit the lethality
of Laine’s wicked shot. Columbus struggled, Laine had some injury issues, and
my dream never quite became a reality. The difference between this year and
last is the Finnish sniper is going much later in drafts. His ADP is listed at
147 on Yahoo, but I picked him in 10 mocks at an average of 160. Slated to play
on the 2nd line and top power play with Adam Fantilli (which is
interesting), but will share the ice with Gaudreau on the power play.
Cole Caufield, RW, Mtl, (71% Yahoo ownership): Caufield is making his
second consecutive appearance on my draft bargains list, and the primary reason
was missing a chunk of the season with injury. He’s not the only one of those
on this list, as it’s common for Yahoo ranks to significantly devalue injured
players (like Zach Werenski), giving the sharper managers a great buy low
opportunity. Caufield has an ADP of 138, though he’s gone by pick 138 in roughly
2/3 of my mocks. He was one of my most drafted players at an average of pick
143, but is at 101 in my rankings. The earliest I picked him in a mock was 118,
and even that felt like a steal. I won’t be waiting until the 140s in my real
drafts.
Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg, (98% Yahoo ownership): I’m a little bit
nervous about the Jets offense this season, especially if Scheifele gets traded
and the team is without their top 2 centers from last year (with nobody near
that calibre to replace them). But there’s no question they’ll be leaning hard
on Connor to drive their offense and he’s a play driver who can create his own
scoring chances. He was still available in 90% of my mock drafts at pick 38. I
picked him 8 times at an average of 44 (which is his exact Yahoo ADP), but he
should be taken in the 20s. Also really fun to watch, so the entertainment
value having him on your team is elite. There is a high probability he’ll be on
both my teams, at least that my hope.
Ilya Samsonov, G, Tor, (90% Yahoo ownership): I’m typically someone
who prefers waiting on goaltending in 12-team drafts and love where I’m getting
Ilya Samsonov in mocks. Toronto is a Stanley Cup contender and he should get
the lion’s share of starts. Yeah, Martin Jones had a nice little hot streak for
Seattle last season, but eventually that balloon popped and he became Martin
Jones again. Matt Larkin at Daily Faceoff had Samsonov on his bust list, and I
could not disagree more. Nothing is certain with goalies and he might suddenly
suck (which would make me happy as a Leafs hater), but his ceiling on that team
represents fantastic value at his ADP of 80, I took him in 13 mocks at an
average of 85. Though when he’s my G1, I’ll pick my G2 within a round or two as
insurance. My general rule is; the longer you wait to draft your G1, the sooner
you should pick your G2.
Vegas Goalies, (62% and 64% Yahoo ownership): The scuttlebutt is
that Robin Lehner might not be able to play this season, and he is not on the
ice at the beginning of camp. That clears the path for the Adin Hill, Logan
Thompson platoon. They’re actually more valuable as a tandem, because if both
stay healthy, the starts could be 50-50 and both proved effective in their
minutes last season. Everyone who played behind that defense looked good last
season. Hill has an ADP of 146 and Thompson is at 158. If there’s a run on
goalies early in your draft, going both Vegas goalies in the 120 to 160 range may
be fruitful. I have both options ranked significantly higher than my mock
average (Hill 111, Thompson 126) so that both should show up in my queue
significantly earlier to give me a shot at completing the full set.
Stuart Skinner, G, Edm (86% Yahoo ownership): Stuart Skinner’s ADP
is listed at 98 on Yahoo, but was chosen after pick 110 in 42% of my mocks, and
a decent chunk of those were me (I took him 9 times at an average of 126). He
is 105 in my rankings, but if he can produce the same stat line as last season,
he should be picked in the 50s. The concern is that his career GP number is
uncomfortably low, and if shooters can figure out a fatal flaw in his game, he
could be the next Cal Petersen. Therein lies the risk, but if he’s the same
goalie as last year, there’s a potentially big reward backstopping one of the
league’s best teams. The other concern is that Jack Campbell could fix whatever
ruined him last season, and if he plays well, they’ll feel compelled to start
the guy making more money. But hey, that risk is the reason you can get him
later in drafts.
Morgan Rielly, D, Tor, (84% Yahoo ownership): While it’s entirely
plausible that John Klingberg becomes the top power play option on the Toronto
blueline (he is currently day-to-day with an upper body injury), Rielly should
still get his share of looks and will get plenty of even strength ice time with
elite offensive weapons. It’s plausible they’re only giving Klingberg time with
the top unit to see how he looks in that role, but he’ll have to be at least as
good as Rielly to hold the job. That won’t be easy. Rielly scored 68 PTS two
seasons ago, and only dipped to a 52-point pace last season, which is good
value at an ADP of 126. I love where I’m getting him in mocks, picking him 13
of 36 drafts at an average of 129, often slipping into the 130s when I didn’t
take him in the 120s. If his ADP was top 100, he might be on my bust list.
Tyler Bertuzzi, LW, Tor (58% Yahoo ownership): Daily Faceoff
currently has Tyler Bertuzzi playing on the Leafs top line with Matthews and
Marner. He’s regularly available in the 16th round of mock drafts, with
me taking him 10 times at an average of 178 (though he’s listed at 156 in my
rankings). He even went undrafted in 8 of 36 mocks, but some of those could
have been before the line news was public. If he spends the whole season on
that top line, the ceiling is very high, but he would also lose significant
value if demoted, so be careful not to reach too soon. If he’s a late round
gamble, the downside risk will be low, the ceiling high. Hopefully the Canadian
government doesn’t bring back vaccine mandates that force him to quarantine
whenever he returns from the USA, or playing for Toronto might suck…
Patrick Kane, RW, UFA, (51% Yahoo ownership): I can’t recall ever
drafting a player in fantasy who did not have a team by draft day, but Kane is
a rare exception. He’s a Hall of Fame talent with multiple Stanley Cup
championships who made a personal decision not to sign with a team until he has
recovered from hip surgery, which is reportedly ahead of schedule. That report
led to an immediate increase in my picking him in mocks, which ramped up when
rumours surfaced that he could end up in Detroit. As a Red Wings fan, I’m
susceptible to irrational bias and would be very excited if he signed in
Detroit. If he’s on the IR, he’s a fantastic injury stash for whenever he does
play. The problem is since he does not currently have a team, he’s listed as NA
instead of injured. He might need to be on a team and officially be put on real
IR before you can put him on Yahoo IR. If that’s the case, don’t burn the bench
spot in a standard sized league. I picked him in 14 mocks at an average of 181.
Runner ups:
· Jesper Bratt, (line 1, PP1 with Jack Hughes, great value with ADP 72)
· Shea Theodore, (currently listed PP1 in Vegas, ADP 142 good
value)
· Pavel Buchnevich, (falling way too late in too many mocks)
· Filip Forsberg, (excellent when healthy)
· Evander Kane, (great if your league counts shots and hits)
· Kris Letang, (still listed on Pens PP1, ADP 124 is too late)
· Troy Terry, (better if Zegras plays, but ADP 155 is too late)
· John Carlson, (scored 71 PTS 2 years ago, ADP 93 is a potential steal
if healthy)
· Linus Ullmark, (reigning Vezina winner often slips into the 40s)
· Miro
Heiskanen, (ADP 68, he’s 45 in my ranks)
Deep Leagues: (under 40% owned)
Seth Jarvis, C/RW, Car, (22% Yahoo ownership): Seth Jarvis made multiple
appearances on my weekly Fantasy Waiver Wire Report last season, notably
whenever Carolina had a good schedule and Jarvis was seeing time on the Aho
line. Currently Jarvis is listed playing on line 1 with Bunting and Aho, as
well as the top power play unit. The longer that holds, the more excited I’ll
be about Jarvis. He might be in my “deep league” section, but if he’s on line 1
& PP1 in Carolina, he’s relevant in standard sized leagues. He was only
taken in 6 of my 36 mock drafts, half of those by me in the 16th
round. Those were 12-team drafts. Love the upside.
Connor Brown, RW, Edm, (27% Yahoo ownership): Connor Brown might
very well be the recipient of the 2023/24 Ty Rattie award for player I’m most
irrationally excited to see play with McDavid, especially considering he has
battled significant injury issues in recent years. But unlike Rattie who never
had sustained productivity in the NHL when he was being hyped as a McDavid
wingman, Connor Brown has proven capable of effectively filling a top 6 role
when healthy. It might be unlikely he cracks that deadly first unit power play,
but he’s currently listed on PP2, so he’ll get some power play time, possibly
even some with McDavid still on the ice.
Mike Matheson, D, Mtl, (25% Yahoo ownership): Last season Mike
Matheson was the #1 defenseman in Montreal, scoring 34 PTS in 48 GP (a 58-point
pace) and is currently listed on Daily Faceoff as playing top pair and top
power play again this season. There is not anyone on the depth chart at risk to
steal that PP1 slot, and as long as Matheson can stay healthy, he has my
highest projected point total of any defenseman under 40% owned (my projection
is 43 PTS in 65 GP). He’s regularly finding his way onto the most added player
list, so don’t be surprised if that 25% is above 50% be the end of October or
sooner.
Pheonix Copley, G, LA, (37% Yahoo ownership): Pheonix Copley won 24
games last year with a .903 SV% and Los Angeles made some moves to improve in
the offseason. He played second fiddle to Joonas Korpisalo in the playoffs, but
JK left for Ottawa in free agency and was replaced with Cam Talbot, who only
won 17 games with a .898 SV% last season and is 36 years old. Copley should at
least be the 1B (if not 1A), and he has gone undrafted in several of my mocks,
except of course the 5 times I picked him in the 15th and 16th
rounds. You can also get his partner Cam Talbot in the late rounds (his ADP in
my mocks was 179) if you want all the King’s starters. Could be a good tandem
like Vegas that you can get late.
Boone Jenner, C/LW, Cbj, (32% Yahoo ownership): Can’t say that I’m
a very big Boone Jenner fan right now (#BizWasRight), but if you are in a deep
league that counts hits, he’s potentially valuable. He did interest me last
season when it looked like he might center a line with Gaudreau and Laine, then
Columbus sucked and Laine was injured. Adam Fantilli has been added to the mix,
Kent Johnson continues his evolution, and there is some high-level offensive
talent to play with. I’m not taking him in a 12-team standard league, even
deeper leagues that are points-only don’t excite me. But dual-eligibility is
nice, and he hits a lot.
Jonathan Drouin, LW, Col, (18% Yahoo ownership): This slot originally
belonged to another Avalanche left winger Artturi Lehkonen, until news broke
that Drouin was skating on a line with MacKinnon and Rantanen in camp. Lehkonen
was very productive playing with MacKinnon last season, and if at any point he
and Nate Dog are re-united, he’ll be among my first waiver wire additions. Be
careful not to draft Drouin so high that it’ll hurt you if he gets demoted. Assume
he’ll eventually lose that role and don’t reach too soon. I’m not adding him
yet in a standard league, but he’s on my streaming radar for sure. I should
check the Avs week one schedule just to see if he should be drafted as my first
streamer.
John Klingberg, D, Tor, (43% Yahoo ownership): John Klingberg was
going undrafted in most of my 12-team mock drafts until news broke they were
trying him on the first unit power play in Toronto. When that news broke,
Morgan Rielly was already included on my standard sized league bargain list because
it was crazy how far he was falling in drafts (perhaps because people were
worried about Klingberg stealing his lunch). But I didn’t stop drafting Rielly
because no matter what, he’s still going to see plenty of time on a powerful
power play. But if Johnny does too, they’re both worth owning. He was 28% owned
when I first put him on this list last week, now he’s up to 43% (which is above
the cut-off for this section, but I’m leaving it in).
Robert Thomas, C, STL, (26% Yahoo ownership): Last season Robert
Thomas averaged 63% Yahoo ownership, peaking at 83%, scoring 65 PTS. But by
virtue of Yahoo rankings and an over-abundance of centers, his stock seems to
have collapsed heading into the 2023/24 season, sitting at just 26% ownership,
with an ADP of 164. He has been my one of my last two picks in several fantasy
hockey mock drafts. In a 12-team league, he’s more of a streamer level player (notably
deficient in shots and hits), but in deeper leagues has more value as a source
of points in later rounds. If he’s the same player as the last two seasons,
that ownership won’t stay at 26%.
Sam Bennett, C, Fla, (22% Yahoo ownership): Bennett averaged 67%
Yahoo ownership last season playing on a line with Matthew Tkachuk, yet like
Thomas, his stock seems to have inexplicably fallen even though he’s still
listed as playing on the Tkachuk line. He may have only scored at a 52-point
pace (which is still perfectly fine for deeper leagues) but also added 193
shots and 150 hits. Maybe in a points-only league you don’t need to get too
excited, but if shots and hits float your boat, you won’t regret adding him to
your team. He may not be on the first power play, but he does get clean-up time
on PP2. He was only taken in 12 of my 36 mocks, and yet should be good enough
to roster in a standard league.
Spencer Knight, G, Fla, (10% Yahoo ownership): Missing most of last
season in the player assistance program (reportedly not for a substance abuse
problem) has substantially eroded market confidence in Spencer Knight, who is a
very talented young goalie. He’s going late enough in fantasy drafts that it
won’t hurt you if he falters or struggles to find his form, and is a potential
lottery ticket if/when he gets back on track. Sergei Bobrovsky will be given
every opportunity to keep the net after that playoff run last season, but even
he has proven unreliable over a full 82-game schedule. It’s not uncommon for
Bob to struggle early, which may present an early opportunity for Knight.
Runner ups:
· Chandler Stephenson, (he’s on
the Vegas PP1 and line 2 with Stone)
· Pavel Zacha, (currently listed
on top line, top power play in Boston)
· Barrett Hayton, (line 1, PP1
with Keller, only 13% owned, great 2nd half)
· Ivan Barbashev, (hitting
machine, listed top line, 2nd power play in Vegas)
· Anthony Beauvillier, (line 1,
PP1 with Pettersson, you can get him late)
· Artturi Lehkonen, (keep an eye
on Colorado’s lines for MacKinnon reunion)
· Josh Norris, (if he can return
to form, he’s a bargain)
· Adam Fantilli, (line 2, PP1
with Laine)
· Rasmus Sandin, (need to see PP
time with Carlson back)
· Lucas Raymond, (line 1, PP1 with Larkin)
Deepest Sleepers: (10% owned or less):
· Gabe Vilardi, Wpg
· Kent Johnston, Cbj
· Oliver Wahlstrom, NYI
· Thomas Harley, Dal
· Juraj Slafkovsky, Mtl
· Matias Maccelli, Ari
· Ondrej Palat, NJ
· Nicklas Backstrom, Wsh
· Gustav Nyquist, Nsh
· Cam Atkinson, Phi
· Rafael Harvey-Pinard, Mtl
· Anton Forsberg, Ott
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