Fantasy Hockey 2023/24 Bust List

Welcome to my 2023/24 Fantasy Hockey Bust List, comprised of players that I’m unlikely to be drafting on any of my teams (unless the slip sufficiently far). It’s important to note that this is relative to where players are being taken in Yahoo mock drafts, and with over 60 mock drafts completed and stored in a spreadsheet (to see my most common picks, click here), these are almost entirely players chosen by me zero times (I picked Burns and DeAngelo a few times before trying to do ice time projections for the Hurricanes defense). It doesn’t necessarily mean anyone will be any worse than last season, though a few of these names did crush previous career highs and/or have been priced in drafts like it’s going to be replicated. 

Yahoo average draft position (henceforth referred to as ADP) is heavily influenced by Yahoo rankings, which have always been a flawed metric for future performance. If Yahoo ranks a player too high, he’ll start getting drafted that high, especially by auto-drafters, which I suspect are an uncomfortably high proportion of all drafters since league commissioners can renew teams without a participant accepting an invitation. When Yahoo made that rule change, the result was a significant increase in the number of zombie teams each season. Don’t let the zombie hoard lead you astray. Follow my advice and play it safe.
 
Another disclaimer, I have been doing this for a few years now, and there are always a few who defy my bust proclamation and have a great season (to see last season’s list, click here). Forecasting Brad Marchand’s match against Father Time has been difficult in the past, so eventually I stopped trying. Age is not the major determining factor for inclusion here (a few names notwithstanding), and instead generally needed to show significant regression last season or conversely a shockingly strong performance that may not be sustainable long term. It doesn’t bother me too much when someone on my bust list has a great season, because worst case you drafted another good player instead. Whereas if I recommend a high pick and they suck, that will keep me up at night.
 
My Pre-Draft Rankings were posted Thursday, where most of the players listed here were ranked at or near what I’m calling their “90% threshold”, which is pick number they were gone by in 90% of my mocks. Similarly, none of my Draft Bargains (also out today) where ranked before their 10% threshold (except Kyle Connor), because as much as I like them, I don’t want to pick any in the earliest 10% where they were picked in my mocks. This is a new thing I’ve done this fall as my mock draft science has evolved. I highly recommend those of you drafting in Yahoo leagues (ideally that counts shots and hits) use my Pre-Draft Rankings to sort players in your queue during drafts. All these players are busts relative to their Yahoo ADP, so if they have a different ADP on a different site, they might not be busts at all.
 
Basically, if a player on this bust list finds their way to the top of my queue during a draft, then they have fallen farther than at least 90% of my mocks, possibly even 100%. When stars fall, that’s always a potential buy low opportunity. It’s worth noting that many of these players where chosen over the last 3 weeks as my mock draft data was being assembled, looking at those picked by me zero times with a high ADP. I had not yet completed my projections, because I prefer to wait until after camp opens to finalize projections so I can get better information on injury status, signings, possible line combinations, etc. The earlier anyone posts projections, the worse they’ll be (hence why the Hockey News Ultimate Pool Guide tends to be so awful, they wrap projections way too soon, probably so they can print after everyone leaves for summer vacation).
 
During the season I’ll be posting weekly Fantasy Reports, so anyone you draft who ends up being a bust, I’ll help you fill that void with the best possible option. If you subscribe for free to my Substack, you’ll get an email every time a new post is published. The Twitter algorithm likes to hide posts with links, so make sure you get them all. I promise, you won’t wanna miss a thing. Last season I published 133 blog posts during the hockey season, and will be doing at least that many this time around. Stay tuned, and I’ll do my best to help you win your league(s).
 
Good luck!
 
 
Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg, (98% Yahoo ownership): Morrissey more than doubled his career-high in points last season, and just like with the Nuge, I don’t like paying for that in drafts the following season. There’s not really another defenseman on the roster threatening him for power play time, unless he flounders, Pionk has played that role before. I’m more concerned about the Jets offense struggling, especially if they ship out Scheifele for 75 cents on the dollar like Dubois. There is some anticipated regression baked into his ADP at 69 and if he slips into the 80s or 90s it might be interesting, but that’s only happening in roughly 25% of my mocks and the latest he was picked was 89. This is a player I’m interested in at the right price, and at 81 in my rankings, there is a non-zero chance he’s on one of my teams. He just needs to fall.
 
Charlie McAvoy, D, Bos, (99% Yahoo ownership): Charlie McAvoy could very well get plenty of power play time this season and make me look foolish for including him on a bust list, but my hesitancy to draft him was born from the McAvoy ownership experience in 2022/23, which take it from me, was fun at first, but completely dried up by the end of the season. He wasn’t getting consistent power play time and his scoring suffered as a result. I ended up dropping him for a streamer in the fantasy playoffs. Daily Faceoff currently has him projected to play top power play, but that’s not enough for me to trust it will sustain itself throughout the season. He plays an important defensive role, so he may not always get the call in the offensive zone. He was 66 in my ranks, which is only 12 slots later than his ADP. My projections didn’t even like him at 66, but that’s the rank where there’s a 90% chance he’s gone.
 
Jeremy Swayman, G, Bos, (95% Yahoo ownership): The most profound observation from my very first mock draft was where they had Jeremy Swayman ranked, and he wouldn’t be here if he was being taken in the middle rounds. But the power that rankings have over ADP means that he can only drop so far before there’s an autodraft (whether by accident or negligence). His ADP is 53 and he’s the #2 goalie playing behind the Vezina winner. He’ll get at least 35 starts (maybe even 41) and probably be good (though the team in front of him should be worse, notably defensively without the best defensive forward of all-time), but the opportunity cost of taking him where he’s going is far too high. He’s at 71 in my pre-draft rankings, and there’s a 90% probability he’ll be gone by pick 71.
 
Connor Bedard, C, Chi, (96% Yahoo ownership):  If you’re in a keeper league, by all means draft Connor Bedard wherever your heart desires. I’m not casting any doubt that the kid has a bright future ahead. My primary issue is with his ADP at 35, which is a suspicious number considering he averaged pick 44 in my mocks. In 20% of those mocks, he was still available in the 50s, the latest he slipped was 79. Maybe many of the early drafts were keeper leagues? My projection has him at 62 PTS, and his betting over/under is 69.5. That ADP is too high for a player with that projection. Keep in mind too, Chicago isn’t exactly loaded with talent. He might be okay playing with Taylor Hall and Nick Foligno, but not sure that’ll help cash the over. Let’s just not get too excited too soon. I’d like to see him play NHL games before I’m spending the required draft capital.
 
Jamie Benn, LW, Dal, (90% Yahoo ownership): Jamie Benn’s point totals the last 4 seasons were 39, 35, 46, and 78. What’s that old Sesame Street game, one of these things does not belong here? Granted, the 35 PTS was in 52 GP, which would have been 55 PTS with an 82-game schedule. Still, 55 PTS is significantly less than 78. Dallas has plenty of talented offensive players and it is entirely plausible Benn can crack 70 again, I’m just not going to draft him where he’s going (ADP 76), which assumes that it is. He was a pleasant surprise for anyone who drafted him last year, especially in leagues that count hits, which mine do. But if he turns back into a pumpkin, I would be upset having burned a 6^th round pick to draft him. He can be found at 89 in my rankings, but it’s unlikely he’ll still be on the board by then. His current linemates are listed on Daily Faceoff as Dadonov and Wyatt Johnston (who does have intriguing upside), but still doesn’t get me excited.
 
Pyotr Kochetkov, G, Car, (62% Yahoo ownership): When Carolina made the decision to bring back both Raanta and Andersen for another season, it was confusing because it seemed like Kochetkov was being positioned as their goalie of the future. No fantasy manager wants to touch a three-headed monster in goal, though it’s rare to find one of this magnitude, as all three are good enough to be at least a 1B on most of the teams in this league. Come to find the contract is structured so he can be sent down to the minors without clearing waivers. Kochetkov is absolutely worth owning when he’s in net, but Yahoo ranked him at 126 (with an ADP of 123), which is crazy for a goalie who could spend half the season in the AHL, crazier still that Yahoo has him projected to play only 15 games. If you only think he’ll start 15 games, why is he ranked as the 126^th best fantasy hockey option among all positions? It’s worth noting that both Raanta and Andersen have lengthy injury histories, so he’ll probably be back up sooner rather than later. I won’t be drafting him, but may make a waiver claim if there’s an injury to one of the other two.
 
Devon Levi, G, Buf, (83% Yahoo ownership): If you’re in a keeper league, by all means draft Devon Levi wherever your heart desires. The kid has electric talent and I’m not casting any doubt on the brightness of his future. My issue here is his ADP of 93 and the fact that rookie goalies are difficult to trust. It’s entirely plausible that he’ll spend some time in the AHL, which makes him a risky investment as a high pick in a 12-team league.  He’ll get dropped in every 12-team 1-year league if he is sent to the minors, so wait until he gets called back up and grab him off waivers. Again, this is a player I really like and am excited about, it’s just too much too soon for me to buy where he is being taken. He was 127 in my rankings (which is his 90% threshold), because once you get that deep in a 12-team draft, it doesn’t hurt at all to swing and miss.
 
Carolina Defensemen: My process of projecting ice time team-by-team and making sure each squad equals the same number of minutes was especially difficult with the Carolina Hurricanes, who added Anthony DeAngelo and Dmitri Orlov this summer. Those additions are going to squeeze the minutes available to the other defenders. The only Hurricanes D that’s being drafted high enough to hurt you is Brent Burns, who will get squeezed on the power play by DeAngelo and even strength by Orlov. Burns ADP is 83, and I flirted with drafting him in the 90s a few times. Honestly, his battle against Father Time has gone just about as well as you can expect, but it’s a constant threat looming over his shoulder. Once I did ice time projections for the Carolina D, I lost all interest in drafting Burns, Slavin, or DeAngelo. This is a classic “too many mouths to feed” scenario that I’ll always avoid (which is part of the reason I do balanced ice time projections each season).
 
Claude Giroux, C/RW, Ott, (92% Yahoo ownership): 35-year-old Claude Giroux has a Yahoo average draft position of 75, which also means that he’s been chosen by me in exactly zero of 60+ mock drafts. I did consider him a few times back when there was more RW scarcity, but never pulled the trigger. He seems to be faring well in his battle with Father Time, but that’s still too much risk in that draft range. There’s not worrisome depth chart pressure on his line two job, but holding his spot on that top power play is less certain. Let someone else in your draft assume that risk. His pick range is where I’m choosing Boldy, Keller, DeBrincat, Bratt, Seider, and Heiskanen, who are all young with upside. The latest he’s been picked in any of my mocks is 92, which could return good value. He’s 84 in my rankings because my projections rated him as good value in that range, which is less than 10 picks from his ADP. He’s here because I’m worried about a sudden drop in production, but if it’s just an average amount of decline for a 35-year-old, 84 is a good place to grab him.
 
Thatcher Demko, G, Van, (87% Yahoo ownership): Thatcher Demko was on my Draft Cheat sheet last season as a frequent pick of mine in mock drafts, but the netminder struggled in the first half last season until missing a couple months with an injury. His SV% was below .890 when the injury occurred, which happened with Bruce Boudreau as bench boss. After returning from injury with Rick Tocchet at the helm, he produced an .918 SV% in 17 starts. That early season brutality has me concerned about picking Demko at his ADP of 98, which is why he was not picked by me in a single mock. Yet it’s also plausible the Tocchet version of Demko could re-appear in October. He slipped past pick 120 in 14% of my mocks, and at that range the downside risk is smaller, the upside even more appealing. He’s on this list, but could find his way onto one of my rosters if he slips late enough, which is actually true for most of these guys.
 
 
*WARNING* The next 2 busts were written a week before my projections and pre-ranks were complete. Once I actually ranked players looking at projections, Nuge and Hamilton are not bad value at their ADP, and that’s pricing regression into their stat lines. I just didn’t take them in any mock drafts. I’m going to leave the summaries here just to go on the record with my original concerns, but am reneguing the claim they’ll be “busts” at their ADP.
 
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C/LW, Edm, (98% Yahoo ownership): The Nuge plays on a historically dominant power play that helped him breach the 100-point threshold last season, and it’s entirely plausible he’ll be back in that role, scoring plenty of points and making me look foolish. What concerns me is that he had never been a point per game player in the NHL until that aforementioned explosion at age 29. The same circumstances which created that storm could repeat themselves again, but his ADP is 32, and at that draft range I’m not willing to assume any regression risk. The best thing he’s got going for him is the dual-position eligibility, but that’s not enough to entice me to pull the trigger. He’s at 40 in my ranks, and looking at his projections, I’m comfortable pulling the trigger.
 
Dougie Hamilton, D, NJ, (99% Yahoo ownership): If Dougie Hamilton holds the top spot on the Devils power play all season, this is a bad call. He was a monster in 2022/23, scoring 74 PTS and firing 275 shots on goal. What gives me concern is that his previous career high was 50 PTS, and he scored just 30 in 2021/22. Now he’s 30 years old, just like Nuge. The Devils have Luke Hughes and Nemec emerging on their blueline, and Hughes in particular is a serious threat to steal Dougie’s PP1 job. If not this year, eventually it’s going to happen. He might be on this list one year too soon, but he’ll be back to under 50 PTS in the next 1-3 years. We’ll see. He’s at 54 in my rankings, and that’s a good place to pull the trigger.
 
 
Earned Consideration:

· Andrei Vasilevskiy, (out 2 months with back injury)
· Trevor Zegras, (love the kid, but won’t draft while he’s unsigned)
· Joonas Korpisalo, (there’s injury/regression risk)
· Mark Stone, (not sure I trust that back, but he’s great when healthy)
· Dylan Larkin, (I’m a Wings homer and think he’ll be good, just don’t like the ADP)
· T.J Oshie, (Father Time catching up)
· Mika Zibanejad, (turned 30 in April)
· John Tavares, (took him in zero mocks, but projections fit fine with with ADP)
· Marc-Andre Fleury, (brutal at the start of last season, Gustavsson is ascending)
· Cale Makar, (he’s a generational talent, but already banged up before camp started)
· Carter Hart, (ADP of 133 too high consider Flyers should be even worse than last season)