Friday, September 30, 2022

2022/23 Fantasy Hockey Busts

      My Fantasy Sleepers list has been re-branded as “Draft Bargains”, and perhaps my Bust list requires a similar adaptation. The opposite of a bargain is a rip-off, where the price tag is higher than the value of the asset. Some of these flawed valuations may prove to be productive and some could make me look foolish for including them, but there’s a degree of risk in all of them that’s too high for my comfort. But that doesn’t mean that if they fall far enough in your draft, that you can’t extract some value from some of them, it’s simply a warning not to draft them where they are being selected.  All of these players are being drafted in a majority of standard leagues, and all of them were selected by me in exactly zero of 21 mock drafts. But some of them could very well have cracked my Draft Bargain list if they were being drafted in later rounds. Some of these are injury risks, some are regression candidates, while others were simply ranked too high by Yahoo.
 
There were some quality recommendations on my bust list from last season, but others did exceed my expectations. Jake Oettinger made the list, but only because Yahoo ranked him too high when he was slated to begin the season in the minors. If you read the report, I encouraged people to acquire him in dynasty formats and proclaimed my belief that his future was bright. Just don’t draft him in a standard league if he’s going to start the season in the minors. If you would like to know where is the correct place to value all the bargains and busts, you are welcome to use my own personal pre-draft rankings. But be warned, it was designed specifically for Yahoo ADP.
 
 
Vasili Podkolzin, W, Van: Upon completing my first Yahoo ownership census of the new season on September 1st, I was surprised to see how far Vasili Podkolzin had climbed since his peak from 2021/22. Problem was, his pre-season ranking was 139 despite only being projected to score 30 PTS. Not sure what algorithm took that forecast and gave him that rank. Consider this a warning, if you are going to miss your draft, then set your pre-ranks, or you might autodraft Podkolzin in the 11th round. He could be good eventually, but should not be drafted in 12-team standard leagues. He is a candidate to be the most auto-drafted player in all of Yahoo fantasy this season, a statistic I’d be interested to see but they’ll never release. Currently projected to play on the Canucks third line.

  
Jake Sanderson, D, Ott: By all means, feel comfortable drafting Jake Sanderson in a dynasty or deep keeper league. I’m not casting any cloud on his long-term career trajectory. What makes me nervous is where he’s being drafted in 1-year leagues, with an ADP ahead of some established productive names. You should not be selecting him at pick 144 in a 12-team league, as a lot of his ADP is coming by autodrafting. Like Podkolzin, Yahoo ranked him too high, so he has been frequently autodrafted in most of my mocks. It’s not impossible that he could put up big numbers as a rookie, but don’t count it. I very rarely (possibly never) draft rookies in a 12-team standard league, as I’d rather wait to catch youngsters with rising stock value from the waiver wire.

  
Matt Duchene, W, Nsh: You’d be forgiven if you’ve forgotten that Matt Duchene scored at a rate of 31 PTS per 82 GP during the 2021 season. That nearly tripled to 90 PTS in 2022. It’s going to be difficult to replicate that outstanding success, the only question is how much regression is going to happen. He is being drafted in rounds 6 to 8 in most of my mock drafts (in my J. Hughes/Heiskanen rounds), and that’s far too rich for my blood. The risk of this carriage turning back into a pumpkin is one I’m not willing to take. My projection for Duchene is 59 PTS, so if you want to scoop him up around pick 120 or higher, by all means, you have my blessing. Just don’t take him in the 70s.

         Update: Duchene did have a 5-point night on the same day this was posted...but I'm still not drafting him. It was on Tampa's 3rd string goalie.
   
Bowen Byram, D, Col: If you can get Bowen Byram later in your draft, he has the potential to reach a very high ceiling. He proved during Colorado’s Stanley Cup run that he possesses incredible offensive skill. My issue here is that he was drafted in the 9th or 10th round of 83% of my mock drafts. That’s also where I’m drafting Zach Werenski, John Klingberg, Tony DeAngelo, Rasmus Andersson, or Thomas Chabot. Even a little Miro Heiskanen. None of those players have serious concussion problems. I’m cheering for this kid to succeed, and own a handful of his rookie cards. I’m not trying to throw shade on his talent, I’m just not drafting him at that ADP. He slipped to 142 in one of my mocks, which is good value. Note that he was not selected by me in any of my 21 mocks.
 
Evgeny Malkin, C, Pit: I have a friend who is a scout and diehard Penguins fan who sent me a text after last season that the Penguins should move on from Malkin because his body is visibly breaking down. I believe my friend’s exact words were “he’s done”. That’s coming from a pro scout who loves Gino. Last year Malkin was on my sleeper draft bargin list because he was slipping really late in drafts due to injury. Now his ADP is 60, and there’s no way I’ll be drafting him that high. In my pre-draft rankings, Malkin was one spot ahead of Matt Duchene at 126. It’s plausible he’s good again and that I’ve ranked him too low, it’s just not a risk I’ll be taking. He was taken in rounds 4-6 in 20 of 21 mocks. Gino did slip all the way to 118 in that one aberration, which was not a bad pick.

  
Aaron Ekblad, D, Fla: It should be stated that I’m expecting Aaron Ekblad to be top 10 in scoring among defensemen this season (my projections currently have him rated 9th). My issue is with where he is being drafted, with an ADP of 34 (on average the 5th D-man off the board). My projections have his PTS per 82 GP dropping from 77 to 64. I’m a little concerned about the Florida power play losing Huberdeau, and Ekblad losing his primary partner Weegar. Aaron is plenty good, depending on where you are able to draft him, just don’t be the one who reaches. Would you rather have Ekblad in the 3rd round or Heiskanen in the 8th round? That’s why I wait on defensemen. I don’t care about PTS above replacement. It’s because there is generally a handful of 50-point D-men available after pick 90 in a 12-team Yahoo draft.
 

Mark Stone, W, Veg: If Mark Stone is back to 100% healthy and plays on a line with Jack Eichel, then he has the potential to make me look foolish for including him on this list. It’s not that I doubt his talent or his potential, I’m just not willing to assume the risk that he’s not 100% (and may never be again) based on where he’s being drafted with an ADP of 47. I have drafted him in exactly zero mocks, even in the face of right wing scarcity. There are simply more reliable choices in my queue when he’s being taken. If he slips into the mid 60s, that’s much more appealing. You may notice a theme here that I’m not a fan of assuming injury risk in the earlier rounds. There are just too many tantalizing options available. It’s looking like Vegas will try to even their top 2 scoring lines instead of stacking the top unit. If that sticks, Stone’s ceiling diminishes.
 
Vladimir Tarasenko, W, Stl: From October 2019 to May 2021, Vladimir Tarasenko played 34 regular season games. Then he returned and posted a career high 82 PTS in 75 GP at age 29. Now he’s being drafted at an ADP of 53, and has been selected by me in exactly zero mock drafts. My jaw dropped when he was selected in the 2nd round of my first real draft in a 12-team league. He may very well have another really good season, I’m just not willing to assume the risk he bears at his draft range. Vlad’s 30th birthday is in the rearview mirror and he has a surgically repaired body. You can get Jason Robertson, Elias Pettersson, or Nikolaj Ehlers in his draft range. Personally, I tend to be looking at goaltenders in the range where he’s being taken (4th or 5th round).

Chris Kreider, W, NYR: Congratulations to Chris Kreider for scoring 50 goals at age 30. He’ll probably be effective again this season, I’m just not willing to draft him near his current ADP of 26. That’s when I tend to be drafting Kyle Connor, Johnny Gaudreau, or Brady Tkachuk. His ADP was 157 last September after scoring at a 49-point pace in 2021. No disrespect to his outstanding accomplishment last season, but my paranoia of carriages turning back into pumpkins is too great for me to draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round. In my 21 mock drafts, the latest he slipped was 37 and 45, so you pretty much need to draft him in the 3rd round. I’ll pass. Two Cinderella references is probably enough for one blog post.
 
Drake Batherson, W, Ott: Sorry, I do not wish to own any equity in a player who might go to jail, certainly not at an ADP of 85. That’s when I’m drafting my defense. Also, for a guy in potential legal trouble, there is very little variance in his mock draft positions. He’s within a few picks of 85 in more than ¾ of my mocks. I probably forfeit all my territory on the moral high ground by cheerleading for Tony DeAngelo and Evander Kane last season, but I’m going to feel better about myself avoiding Batherson. No means no.
 
Jonathan Quick, G, LA: Reminder, Jonathan Quick’s save percentages in the last 4 seasons were .888, .904, .898, .910. Yeah, he was decent in 2021/22, but was downright unplayable in 2018/19. At age 36, which Quick do you think is more likely to show up? In my mock drafts he has gone 110, 117, 154, 106, 94, 91, 91, 96, 118, 103, 176, 83, 151, 104, 101, 95, 100, 101, 121, 102, 95. And if you’re wondering, that does rank him in the top 10 for ADP variance among players drafted in every mock. If you can get him after pick 150 as a bench goalie, I don’t hate him in a 12-team standard league. Just don’t draft him at his current ADP of 95. Take Heiskanen or Werenski instead.


Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Fla: Sergei Bobrovsky was a top 10 fantasy goalie last season, and was tied for the league lead in wins while posting a respectable .913 SV%. I’m a former President of the Bobrovsky Booster Club, but tendered my resignation in the fall of 2019. Bob’s 2020 and 2021 save percentages were .900 and .906, so it’s hard to trust what version of this goalie shows up in October. While he did have a strong start to the previous schedule, Bob had been a notoriously slow starter in previous campaigns, and if he stumbles out of the gate in 2022, that might give Florida’s goalie of the future an opening. The existence of Spencer Knight is a big reason why I drafted Bobrovsky in exactly zero mock drafts (note that I completely avoided drafting Spencer Knight as well, who is also ranked too high).

  
 
Earned Consideration:
 
·        T.J Oshie (Father Time catching up)
·        Nazem Kadri (big regression candidate, but his ADP isn’t crazy)
·        Tyler Seguin (could bounce back but has lost my trust)
·        Ryan Johansen (regression)
·        Cam Talbot (Anton Forsberg could get 40 starts)
·        Jeremy Swayman (ranked like Ullmark isn’t a threat to steal starts, key Bruins injured)
·        Sam Reinhart (not at ADP of 65, acceptable if he falls later)
·        Evgeni Kuznetsov (Washington makes me nervous)
·        Mika Zibanejad (I have bad memories from 2021)
·        Brayden Schenn (Father Time in pursuit)
·        Patrick Kane (if he gets traded, then he’s a bargain at his current ADP, earned consideration for my draft bargain list too.)
·        Blake Wheeler (he’s going so late, almost a bargain, but I’m worried about “quiet quitting”) 
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