Saturday, October 2, 2021

Fantasy Hockey Busts 2021/22

Welcome to my 2021/22 NHL Fantasy Draft Bust list, of players that I’m mostly avoiding in standard sized leagues, so everyone here is over 40% owned at the time this was written (most over 70%). I don’t bother with “deep busts”, this is for those being selected in the top 190 picks. The selections are players that I don’t like relative to their average draft position on Yahoo, but some are simply unlikely to replicate their numbers from last season for one reason or another. #1 and #10 on the list are injured players, but I otherwise tried not to forge a list entirely comprised of damaged goods.

I should warn you; there were some notable and embarrassing strikeouts on my bust list last season, especially Brad Marchand and Marc-Andre Fleury. It’s never a good look when you tell people not to draft the eventual Vezina trophy winner, but there was a crowded crease in Vegas. In retrospect the bust should have been “One of the Vegas goalies” and I would have been correct. Marchand had offseason surgery and Pastrnak was slated to miss the start of the season, so it wasn’t completely stupid to think it was finally time for him to start regressing. It certainly wasn’t my best work, but I nailed a few, like Logan Couture, Alexis Lafreniere, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Braden Point (who underperformed his draft position in the regular season).

It’s probably prudent to avoid the unvaccinated players like Tyler Bertuzzi, who most of you probably weren’t drafting anyway. MacKenzie Blackwood is allegedly considering getting the shot, but has not committed yet. I would stay away from Blackwood in standard sized leagues until there is confirmation of vaccination.

 

1. Jack Eichel, C, Buf, (89% owned) – My general strategy is to avoid drafting injured players in Yahoo standard leagues, or any format with limited IR slots. That strategy was ignored last January when I selected David Pastrnak four rounds later than he should have been drafted. He only missed 2 weeks, and I hit the jackpot. But I’m much more concerned about Jack Eichel’s injury situation. It appears as though he won’t play for a long time, if he even suits up at all this season. His current ADP on Yahoo is 82.5, which is very close to the Hockey News generous forecast for his 2021/22 point total. The best plan in standard formats is to fill up most of your roster first, and don’t roll the dice on Eichel until you get near selecting your bench. In a 1-year league, don’t reach. Draft him where you won’t be hard done by if he sits out the season.

 

2. A Chicago Goalie – This is not a condemnation that the goalies are going to suck in Chicago this season, but rather concern about average draft position. Marc-Andre Fleury has an ADP of 41 while Kevin Lankinen is 103. That’s close to where I might expect both to be drafted if the other didn’t play for the Blackhawks. At least one of these two goalies is going to disappoint relative to where you need to draft them. Given that Fleury won the Vezina, it will probably be Lankinen who gets insufficient starts. This is a porous defensive team, but we’ll see if the addition of Seth Jones, return of Jonathan Toews and departure of Duncan Keith tightens that up. Both guys could end up being good goalies this season, I’m just staying away from both at their average draft position. If you can get Fleury a round or two later, that’s fine. I’m not saying you should completely avoid the reigning Vezina winner...

 

3. The Flyers Defense – If I were a Flyers fan, I would be excited at all the additions on the blueline, with Ellis, Ristolainen, and Yandle all thrown into the mix. This should significantly help the team offensively, however from a fantasy perspective, it’s a classic case of “Too Many Mouths To Feed Syndrome”. Provorov is a risk to lose most of his power play time, yet is currently 85% owned. Same with Ristolainen, who may become entirely a hits and blocks specialist, which doesn’t justify 56% ownership. It looked like Ellis was moving into a better situation to increase his power play time, until they also acquired Keith Yandle, who might have the best shot to emerge as PP1 QB. Anyone hoping for a breakout season from rookie Cam York might have to wait another year, as the depth chart ahead of him is just too crowded. This is a situation I want no part of until we see how the deck shuffles out.

 

4. Ondrej Palat, W, TB, (91% owned) – Palat was the primary beneficiary of Nikita Kucherov’s absence last season, so he should expect to see a substantial drop in power play ice time. He scored at a 44-point pace in 2018/19, 49 PTS in 2020, and jumped up to 69 PTS in 2021 thanks to the deployment boost. His average draft position on Yahoo is 75, but he may not be anything more than a streamer in standard leagues. In 5 of 10 mock drafts, Palat was picked in the 6th round, and never later than pick 91. He was drafted by me exactly zero times in those mocks, despite being on one of my fantasy teams last season. I was happy to ride the wave then, but not with Kucherov back.

 

5. Brayden Schenn, C/W, Stl, (85% owned) – Schenn saw his scoring rate drop from 67 in 2020 down to 53 in 2021. I was already concerned about his rate of decline before he celebrated his 30th birthday this summer. This is a player you’ll especially want to avoid in a salary cap league, as he’s at risk of becoming substantially overpaid if this decline continues. To me he’s just a high-end streamer, not a player worthy of permanent ownership. He’s being drafted in the 8th or 9th round, and there are other players that I prefer in that range. There are red flags that Brayden is slowing down.

 

6. Patric Hornqvist, W, Fla, (62% owned) – This is not Hornqvist’s first appearance on my bust list, but he has always managed to outperform my pessimism. My concern has always been about his health and extensive injury history relating to his very physical playing style. The catalyst behind his strong performance has been his effectiveness standing around the net on the power play. That has always driven his success in fantasy. You would think that I’d have learned my lesson and stop betting on Father Time in this match-up, but Florida has too many forwards. Pat is currently projected to play on the 4th line 5-on-5. You can get him near the end of your drafts in 12-team leagues, but for me he’s just a streamer.

 

7. Alexander Radulov, W, Dal, (87% owned) – The Russian winger was a major disappointment in 2019/20, scoring at a career low 46-point pace before Covid shut down the NHL. When play resumed in the Edmonton playoff bubble, Radulov played a key role in the Stars advancing to the Stanley Cup final. He followed that up with an injury plagued 2021 in which he scored 12 PTS in 11 GP. It’s hard to say which version of Radoluv will show up this season, but I’m not willing to risk a 7th or 8th round pick to find out. He is currently slated to skate on a line with Tyler Seguin and Joel Kiviranta. Coincidently, Tyler Seguin also received strong consideration for this list.

 

8. Jake Oettinger, G, Dal, (48% owned) – Whoever sets the draft rankings over at Yahoo did not look at the Dallas Stars goaltending depth chart when making their forecast for Oettinger. He ended up way too high in “xRank”, which brings him to the top of people’s draft lists far too soon given the crowded situation. I like this kid’s future and might put him on my sleeper list if he had a clear path to a majority of the Stars starts, but alas, that’s not the case. Perhaps he’s a buy low candidate in dynasty leagues if his owner needs a goalie who will play now, but he’s a stay-away in all but the deepest formats in 2021/22 until the logjam ahead of him is cleared.

 

9. Alec Martinez, D, Veg, (79% owned) – After 3 consecutive seasons of scoring under a 30-point pace in Los Angeles, Martinez’s first full season in Vegas was a stunning success, nearly doubling his scoring output at age 33, pacing for 50 PTS. His average draft position is currently 141, which is later than you should draft a 50-point defenseman, so clearly the fantasy community is expecting some regression. I don’t have a problem with drafting him at his ADP, just be careful reaching too early if you see the point total. His shot and hit totals are not impressive, so you are mostly drafting him to score and last season might have been an anomaly.

 

10. Carey Price, G, Mtl, (95% owned) – If you had asked me in June to write a first draft of my bust list, there is no way Carey Price would have been on it. He was sensational in the playoffs, and if anything should have substantially boosted his value based on that performance. Unfortunately, Price hurt himself in the process and failed his training camp physical. He had surgery in the offseason, but the team was expecting him to be healthy for the start of the new season. Now we are lacking a clear time line for when he might return to action. In a majority of my mock drafts, he was selected in the 6th round or earlier. I would not draft Price as your #1 goalie. Maybe pull the trigger in the 8th or 9th round as your second goalie, in the unlikely event he slides that far.

 
 
Almost Made it
 
 
*Sergei Bobrovsky
*Tyler Seguin
*TJ Oshie
*Jamie Benn
*Anze Kopitar
*Alex Nedeljkovic
*Ryan O’Reilly
*Jean-Gabriel Pageau

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