Welcome to my 2021/22 NHL Fantasy Draft Bust list, of
players that I’m mostly avoiding in standard sized leagues, so everyone here is
over 40% owned at the time this was written (most over 70%). I don’t bother with
“deep busts”, this is for those being selected in the top 190 picks. The
selections are players that I don’t like relative to their average draft
position on Yahoo, but some are simply unlikely to replicate their numbers from
last season for one reason or another. #1 and #10 on the list are injured
players, but I otherwise tried not to forge a list entirely comprised of
damaged goods.
I should warn you; there were some notable and embarrassing strikeouts on my bust list last season, especially Brad Marchand and Marc-Andre Fleury. It’s never a good look when you tell people not to draft the eventual Vezina trophy winner, but there was a crowded crease in Vegas. In retrospect the bust should have been “One of the Vegas goalies” and I would have been correct. Marchand had offseason surgery and Pastrnak was slated to miss the start of the season, so it wasn’t completely stupid to think it was finally time for him to start regressing. It certainly wasn’t my best work, but I nailed a few, like Logan Couture, Alexis Lafreniere, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Braden Point (who underperformed his draft position in the regular season).
It’s probably prudent to avoid the unvaccinated players
like Tyler Bertuzzi, who most of you probably weren’t drafting anyway.
MacKenzie Blackwood is allegedly considering getting the shot, but has not
committed yet. I would stay away from Blackwood in standard sized leagues until
there is confirmation of vaccination.
1. Jack Eichel, C, Buf, (89% owned) – My general
strategy is to avoid drafting injured players in Yahoo standard leagues, or any
format with limited IR slots. That strategy was ignored last January when I
selected David Pastrnak four rounds later than he should have been drafted. He
only missed 2 weeks, and I hit the jackpot. But I’m much more concerned about
Jack Eichel’s injury situation. It appears as though he won’t play for a long
time, if he even suits up at all this season. His current ADP on Yahoo is 82.5,
which is very close to the Hockey News generous forecast for his 2021/22 point
total. The best plan in standard formats is to fill up most of your roster
first, and don’t roll the dice on Eichel until you get near selecting your
bench. In a 1-year league, don’t reach. Draft him where you won’t be hard done
by if he sits out the season.
2. A Chicago
Goalie – This is not a condemnation that the goalies are going to suck in
Chicago this season, but rather concern about average draft position.
Marc-Andre Fleury has an ADP of 41 while Kevin Lankinen is 103. That’s close to
where I might expect both to be drafted if the other didn’t play for the
Blackhawks. At least one of these two goalies is going to disappoint relative
to where you need to draft them. Given that Fleury won the Vezina, it will
probably be Lankinen who gets insufficient starts. This is a porous defensive
team, but we’ll see if the addition of Seth Jones, return of Jonathan Toews and
departure of Duncan Keith tightens that up. Both guys could end up being good
goalies this season, I’m just staying away from both at their average draft
position. If you can get Fleury a round or two later, that’s fine. I’m not saying
you should completely avoid the reigning Vezina winner...
3. The Flyers
Defense – If I were a Flyers fan, I would be excited at all the additions
on the blueline, with Ellis, Ristolainen, and Yandle all thrown into the mix.
This should significantly help the team offensively, however from a fantasy
perspective, it’s a classic case of “Too Many Mouths To Feed Syndrome”.
Provorov is a risk to lose most of his power play time, yet is currently 85%
owned. Same with Ristolainen, who may become entirely a hits and blocks
specialist, which doesn’t justify 56% ownership. It looked like Ellis was moving
into a better situation to increase his power play time, until they also
acquired Keith Yandle, who might have the best shot to emerge as PP1 QB. Anyone
hoping for a breakout season from rookie Cam York might have to wait another
year, as the depth chart ahead of him is just too crowded. This is a situation
I want no part of until we see how the deck shuffles out.
4. Ondrej Palat, W, TB, (91% owned) – Palat was the primary
beneficiary of Nikita Kucherov’s absence last season, so he should expect to
see a substantial drop in power play ice time. He scored at a 44-point pace in
2018/19, 49 PTS in 2020, and jumped up to 69 PTS in 2021 thanks to the deployment
boost. His average draft position on Yahoo is 75, but he may not be anything
more than a streamer in standard leagues. In 5 of 10 mock drafts, Palat was
picked in the 6th round, and never later than pick 91. He was
drafted by me exactly zero times in those mocks, despite being on one of my
fantasy teams last season. I was happy to ride the wave then, but not with
Kucherov back.
5. Brayden
Schenn, C/W, Stl, (85% owned) – Schenn saw his
scoring rate drop from 67 in 2020 down to 53 in 2021. I was already concerned
about his rate of decline before he celebrated his 30th birthday
this summer. This is a player you’ll especially want to avoid in a salary cap
league, as he’s at risk of becoming substantially overpaid if this decline
continues. To me he’s just a high-end streamer, not a player worthy of permanent
ownership. He’s being drafted in the 8th or 9th round,
and there are other players that I prefer in that range. There are red flags
that Brayden is slowing down.
6. Patric
Hornqvist, W, Fla, (62% owned) – This is not
Hornqvist’s first appearance on my bust list, but he has always managed to
outperform my pessimism. My concern has always been about his health and
extensive injury history relating to his very physical playing style. The
catalyst behind his strong performance has been his effectiveness standing
around the net on the power play. That has always driven his success in
fantasy. You would think that I’d have learned my lesson and stop betting on
Father Time in this match-up, but Florida has too many forwards. Pat is
currently projected to play on the 4th line 5-on-5. You can get him
near the end of your drafts in 12-team leagues, but for me he’s just a
streamer.
7. Alexander
Radulov, W, Dal, (87% owned) – The Russian
winger was a major disappointment in 2019/20, scoring at a career low 46-point
pace before Covid shut down the NHL. When play resumed in the Edmonton playoff
bubble, Radulov played a key role in the Stars advancing to the Stanley Cup
final. He followed that up with an injury plagued 2021 in which he scored 12
PTS in 11 GP. It’s hard to say which version of Radoluv will show up this
season, but I’m not willing to risk a 7th or 8th round
pick to find out. He is currently slated to skate on a line with Tyler Seguin
and Joel Kiviranta. Coincidently, Tyler Seguin also received strong consideration for this
list.
8. Jake
Oettinger, G, Dal, (48% owned) – Whoever sets
the draft rankings over at Yahoo did not look at the Dallas Stars goaltending
depth chart when making their forecast for Oettinger. He ended up way too high
in “xRank”, which brings him to the top of people’s draft lists far too soon
given the crowded situation. I like this kid’s future and might put him on my
sleeper list if he had a clear path to a majority of the Stars starts, but
alas, that’s not the case. Perhaps he’s a buy low candidate in dynasty leagues
if his owner needs a goalie who will play now, but he’s a stay-away in all but
the deepest formats in 2021/22 until the logjam ahead of him is cleared.
9. Alec Martinez, D, Veg, (79% owned) – After 3 consecutive seasons of scoring
under a 30-point pace in Los Angeles, Martinez’s first full season in Vegas was
a stunning success, nearly doubling his scoring output at age 33, pacing for 50
PTS. His average draft position is currently 141, which is later than you
should draft a 50-point defenseman, so clearly the fantasy community is
expecting some regression. I don’t have a problem with drafting him at his ADP,
just be careful reaching too early if you see the point total. His shot and hit
totals are not impressive, so you are mostly drafting him to score and last
season might have been an anomaly.
10. Carey Price, G, Mtl, (95% owned) –
If you had asked me in June to write a first draft of my bust list, there is no
way Carey Price would have been on it. He was sensational in the playoffs, and
if anything should have substantially boosted his value based on that
performance. Unfortunately, Price hurt himself in the process and failed his
training camp physical. He had surgery in the offseason, but the team was
expecting him to be healthy for the start of the new season. Now we are lacking
a clear time line for when he might return to action. In a majority of my mock
drafts, he was selected in the 6th round or earlier. I would not
draft Price as your #1 goalie. Maybe pull the trigger in the 8th or 9th
round as your second goalie, in the unlikely event he slides that far.
*Tyler Seguin
*TJ Oshie
*Jamie Benn
*Anze Kopitar
*Alex Nedeljkovic
*Ryan O’Reilly
*Jean-Gabriel Pageau
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