Sunday, October 3, 2021

Fantasy Hockey Sleepers 2021/22

Welcome to my 2021/22 Sleepers list. The term “sleeper” is one that likely means different things to different people, with varying definitions of what qualifies as sleeping. For the purposes of this report, we are discussing players who are “bargains” at their Yahoo average draft position. I have completed 10 mock drafts, and recorded where every player was selected each time to get a clear picture of their “draft range”. The players that I’m recommending here are only targets if they fall to you at the right spot in the draft. Most of them are falling late enough that there is very little downside risk if they don’t break out. There will surely be some strikeouts on the list below, but there will also be a few home runs. That’s how the sleeper prognostication business works.

 

Standard Leagues:

 

1. Linus Ullmark, G, Bos, (83% owned) – Linus Ullmark was a respectably good goalie on a terrible Buffalo team, and has substantially upgraded the roster in front of him by moving to Boston. It’s mystifying that his average draft position on Yahoo is only 90, where he was slotted 55th in my own personal rankings. Obviously the two knocks on Ullmark are his inability to stay healthy and the possibility that Jeremy Swayman may challenge him for the primary role. There is some risk, but an acceptable amount for a player you can draft in the 8th or 9th round. If your league has a run on goalies early, this guy might still be sitting there when the dust settles and has really strong upside. It might be smart to handcuff him to Swayman if you do pull the trigger.

 

2. Anthony DeAngelo, D, Car, (71% owned) – My main concern hyping DeAngelo as a fantasy hockey sleeper is that one day it might be uncovered by my boss at work who will use it as justification to fire me from my job. It feels deplorable endorsing such a shady character, but there is potential for massive upside given his average draft position. The departure of Dougie Hamilton in Carolina creates a void on the top power play unit, where Tony could thrive. We’re talking about a defenseman who scored at a 64-point pace in 2019/20, yet has an average draft position of 145 on Yahoo. In my mock drafts, he was being selected on average at 130 and never later than 141. It’s not a player I was targeting, but he kept falling onto my roster nonetheless. Somewhere between picks 120-130 is the sweet spot for DeAngelo, or the 11th round of a standard league. I drafted him in a standard league last night at pick 131.

 

3. Filip Forsberg, W, Nsh, (84% owned) – It didn’t take me long in my chain of mock drafts to notice that Filip Forsberg was often available in the 10th round or later. He was ending up on my team too often so I had to stop drafting him to see how far he would fall on average, going as low as 106 and as late as 156 for an average of 123. If you’ve owned him in the past, you might have injury concerns, but his ceiling is much higher than many of the forwards being selected in that range. The winger has scored at a 65-point pace over the last 2 seasons and is motivated by a pending trip to the UFA market.

 

4. Thomas Chabot, D, Ott, (88% owned) – No player ends up on more of my fantasy teams (both real and mock) than Chabot. This kid regularly falls down draft boards and always seems to find his way onto my roster. This surely has to do with people in standard leagues avoiding bad +/- players, a category which holds very little sway over my fantasy decisions. It’s ridiculous that a defenseman who scored at a 52-point pace has an ADP of 120. The +/- may not be desirable, but he puts up solid shot and hit totals for a high scoring defenseman. He went in the 10th or 11th round of 90% of my mock drafts. It’s another player I had to stop drafting to see how far he’d fall.


5. Mike Smith, G, Edm, (65% owned) – If you told me in June that Mike Smith would be on my fantasy sleepers list in a few months, I would have laughed and said that’s absurd. He had a great regular season, but was questionable in the playoffs, casting his future in doubt. But Ken Holland decided to bring him back as the #1 goalie, and Yahoo responded by burying him in their draft rankings (in the late 300s). He went undrafted in my standard league, then was immediately claimed on waivers after the draft. He slipped past everyone. This is a goalie who you can pick in the last 2 rounds of the draft and will get you some wins in that weak division.

 

6. Claude Giroux, C/W, Phi, (75% owned) – Is anyone really sleeping on Claude Giroux at this stage of his career? He scored at a 65-point pace last season, which was actually an improvement on his 2020 scoring rate. At age 33 his scoring rate is holding steady. In my 10 mock drafts, I landed Giroux 4 times in the 15th or 16th round. He may not be an exciting player to draft, but he has a dependable floor and an average draft position that’s far too low for a 65-point forward. There is risk of decline at his age, but who cares if you need to drop your last pick?

 

7. Ryan Pulock, D, NYI, (49% owned) – Pulock is going undrafted in many leagues, and can often be grabbed in the 16th round of standard league drafts. The defenseman has scored at a 35-point pace over the last 2 seasons, and could pick up more power play time with the departure of Nick Leddy (unless Dobson gobbles it all up). It’s worth gambling on Pulock as a late pick to see how the Islanders power play shakes out over the first 2 weeks of the season. At the very least, he’ll give you solid shots, hits, and blocks.

 

8. Conor Garland, W, Van, (62% owned) – Garland was featured on my sleeper’s list last season, except in the “10% owned or less" category. The winger officially broke out, scoring at a 65-point pace in 2021 before getting traded to Vancouver in the offseason. We still don’t know exactly how the Canucks deployment will play out, but Garland is a strong upside gamble that you can get in the 15th round of your draft, where there is very little downside.

 

9. Oliver Bjorkstrand, W, Cbj, (62% owned) – Bjorkstrand is a player who often ends up on my team as a streamer, but never seems to sustain a permanent roster spot. The best feature of this player is his high shot volume, and you can get him in the last 2 rounds of a standard league draft. He may just be a high-end streamer in that format, but that’s what you’re getting from most players at that stage of your draft. There is a chance that he could have a breakout season, and that’s what he’ll need to do to stay on your team.

 

10. Evgeny Malkin, C, Pit, (82% owned) – Malkin is expected to miss the first 2 months of the season, and his draft stock has plunged as a result. I was able to grab him at pick 114 of a standard league draft. In my mocks, his draft positions were 65, 69, 84, 90, 93, 104, 104, 125, 132, 147. The people who picked him in the 6th round may have a bust on their hands, but anyone who gets him in the 10th round scored a cheap lottery ticket. Don’t reach. Let him fall to you or don’t draft him at all.

 

Deep Leagues: (under 40% owned)

 

1. Travis Konecny, W, Phi, (37% owned) – It was a bad season for Konecny, who saw his scoring rate drop from 76 PTS per 82 GP in 2020 down to 56 PTS in 2021. It is anyone’s guess what happened to the young forward, but if we discount the pandemic schedule as an aberration, suddenly Travis becomes a bounce back candidate. He is currently listed on the top line with Couturier and Giroux, as well as the top power play unit. I drafted him in a 12-team standard league with my last pick, but will end up dropping him because my roster his hit deficient and I need the streaming slot. But he’ll stick on my radar, and may find his way back onto my roster before season’s end.

 

2. Kaapo Kakko, W, NYR, (22% owned) – I jumped the gun on a Kakko breakout last season, and it never materialized. The possibility of him playing with Artemi Panarin was incredibly alluring, and early in the NHL preseason, it looks like that tandem might finally become reality. My failed sleeper declaration from last season has taught me nothing and I’m going to double down. Kakko has only scored at a 29-point pace over the previous 2 seasons, and my initial projection had him at a 36-point pace this year. But if he’s going to play on the top line with Panarin, he has the potential to blow that number out of the water.

 

3. Jonathan Bernier, G, NJD, (6% owned) – News has broken that MacKenzie Blackwood is not currently vaccinated, and if that status continues, we should see Bernier start more games than expected. Even with a healthy vaccinated Blackwood, Bernier was already a sleeper in deeper leagues after playing shockingly well on a brutal Red Wings team over the last 2 seasons. He is currently only 6% owned, which is way too low even if Blackwood gets vaxed. The Devils are a better team after the addition of Dougie Hamilton and should improve on last season’s performance. I’m not touching either Devils goalie in a standard sized league.

 

4. Timo Meier, W, SJ, (27% owned) – Timo had an average ownership of 80% in 2020 (when he scored at a 57-point pace), and 73% in 2021 (when he scored at a 47-point pace). One of the reasons he was able to sustain fantasy ownership that high with low point totals is that he provides quality shot and hit numbers. Currently his ownership has dropped all the way down to 27%. Traditionally, a 50-point forward should be around 50% owned. If you add the solid peripherals, Meier should be at least 60% owned. Ergo, there’s a whole bunch of leagues where Timo should be owned, but is not. Let’s fix that.

 

5. Jared McCann, C/W, Sea, (30% owned) – My initial projection had McCann slated for just under 50 PTS, which is lower than the 61-point pace he produced for the Penguins last season. While he should move into a more prominent role with the Kraken, he’ll also be losing his exposure to that mighty Penguins power play. Increasing his playing time and importance to the team doesn’t necessarily make this a better situation from a fantasy hockey perspective. And yet, he’s been posting power play points thus far in preseason, which has made him among the most added players on Yahoo since the preseason began.

 

6. Pavel Francouz, G, Col, (17% owned) – This slot was a toss up between Francouz and Jake Allen in Montreal (where Carey Price is injured), with both goalies being available in over 80% of Yahoo leagues. Francouz missed all of last season, but was a very good goalie for the Avalanche prior to his long-term injury (.923 career Save % in 36 GP). The reason Pavel won the coin toss is that Colorado might be the best team in the NHL and Darcy Kuemper has an injury history himself. You need to be in a deep league to add him right now, but if Kuemper eventually succumbs to injury, we will all be rushing to the waiver wire.

 

7. Noah Dobson, D, NYI, (15% owned) – As mentioned above, Noah Dobson has the potential to be a big part of the Islanders power play, depending on how Barry Trotz decides to allot that deployment. Last season he averaged 1.9 PPI minutes per game, and paced for 25-points overall. He’s young with the potential to break out at any given moment. My projection for his point total is 31, but he could potentially hit 40 with enough power play minutes.

 

8. Colton Parayko, D, STL, (34% owned) – There is no specific reason why you should jump on Parayko in your fantasy drafts, other than he’s going undrafted in a large majority of leagues. He generally returns strong peripheral stats, and paced for 35 PTS per 82 GP over the last 2 seasons combined. The ceiling may not be high, but the floor is. Also a solid streaming target in standard sized leagues.

 

9. Moritz Seider, D, Det, (15% owned) – My projection for Seider is only 26 PTS, but the Red Wings prospect has some sleeper potential. The only thing we’re waiting to see is what kind of numbers he can produce at the NHL level, where he has never played a single game. It’s also unclear if he will get any power play time, so by no means is he a slam dunk sleeper. He does hit a lot.

 

10. Clayton Keller, W, Ari, (17% owned) – It’s hard to advocate for the dumpster fire in Arizona, but whatever obstacles Clayton Keller has had in the past that prevented him from getting top deployment are gone. He should get plenty of ice time. I’m expecting that extra ice time to elevate his scoring rate to 60 PTS per 82 GP. I'm not exactly excited about Keller, but think his ownership number is currently too low.

 

 Deepest Sleepers: (10% owned or less)

 

  • Dmitrij Jaskin
  • Dustin Brown
  • Rasmus Andersson
  • Nick Schmaltz
  • Gustav Forsling
  • Jordan Kyrou
  • Tyler Johnson
  • Pavel Zacha
  • Nick Leddy
  • Michael Bunting
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