My 2022/23
Sleepers list has been rebranded as “Draft Bargains” after someone complained
that my choices did not satisfy the strict definition of a “sleeper”. After
all, Webster’s Dictionary is very specific. The problem with a true “sleeper”
is that they are rarely relevant in standard sized leagues with deep waiver
wires. Why invest in a possible breakout when there are plenty of proven
commodities available. So there’s not even really much point in giving you a
list of long-shot breakout candidates in my standard league section, as you’ll
get more actionable and valuable advice from a list of proven commodities that
are being drafted too late on average. This is a cheat code to help you beat
Yahoo drafts. But don’t worry, for those of you in deep leagues, where
“sleepers” become more worthwhile risks, I’ve got plenty of those too.
Not all of these
players are technically “sleeping”, but rather, they are catching managers in
fantasy drafts snoozing. Some of these are no-brainers, candidates to win major
awards, but for whatever reason people are sleeping on them. In a standard
Yahoo 12-team league, I’m not a big advocate for drafting young players hoping
for a breakout. The deeper my waiver wire, the more I covet proven commodities
with my high draft picks. Deeper leagues are where I’m more prone to take a
swing at some upside, and last season I hit a few big home runs (notably Moritz
Seider and Noah Dobson when they were 15% owned on October 3). Jordan Kyrou and
Rasmus Andersson were on my list of deep sleepers 10% owned or less, granted so
was Dmitri Jaskin, but when you’re swinging for the fences, expect a few strikeouts.
Read last year’s list
here.
This list was by
compiled through my own system of mass mock drafting (21 in total), then
cataloguing all the results. I started mocking in the last week of August, and
did 4 per week up until this post was post was published, allowing me to track
chronological changes in draft position and see unfolding trends. There were
certain players who found their way onto my roster often in the mocks, but I
did try to avoid drafting any one player too much (at least early on). I didn’t
want to taint my mock draft data by continuously selecting anyone repeatedly
earlier than necessary. This was a test to see where players fall and determine
the optimal range to select the bargains I want. If you’re drafting in Yahoo,
you can use my own personal
pre-draft rankings to prioritize your players. Using that list for my first
draft made everything run very smooth. It always had the perfect player at the
top of my queue, and most of my picks were made in 5 seconds or less with no
scrolling. To view my Fantasy Bust list, click here.
You can also check out my Draft Cheat Sheet, which is a collection of players that I drafted most often in mocks with the average pick used to attain them. A lot of them found their way onto the two teams I drafted.
Standard Leagues:
(in no particular order)
Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal, (94%
Yahoo ownership): If it were not for my daily attempts at mock drafting, Miro
Heiskanen would not be on this list because I would have assumed he was
properly valued by the fantasy community. This post is just about draft value
and potential bargains. If the market continues valuing Heiskanen at his
current ADP of 98, he might be on all my teams (he’s already on one). He’s
going after pick 90 in a large majority of my mocks. He has landed to me in 9
of 21 mocks at picks 92, 96, 97, 93, 91, 97, 94, 86, 79, 101. Heiskanen and
Werenski are two big reasons that I’m mostly waiting to the 7th or 8th
round to start drafting defense. I have never been a believer in using “value
above replacement” which will often over-rank defensemen. Why would I draft a 60–70-point
defenseman in the top 4 rounds when there are plenty of 40–60-point D-men
available in rounds 7-10? Wait and take Werenski or Heiskanen.
Zach Werenski, D, Cbj, (93%
Yahoo ownership): Next to Thomas Chabot, I have probably owned Zach Werenski in
more leagues than any other player in the last 3 years. My typical strategy is
to wait on defense (unless someone slips from their ADP), and Zach always seems
to be among my highest ranked available players when my gaze shifts to the
blueline. Health has been issue, but he delivers when healthy. Those injuries
might be the only reason the bargain has repeatedly presented itself. The
departure of Seth Jones put Zach firmly in the Blue Jackets power play
spotlight. As someone who owns Werenski stock almost every season, I’m thrilled
to be able to get him in the 8th or 9th round. For
whatever reason (probably injuries) his stock is always under-priced, and I’m
happy to benefit from the bargain. In my mocks he was drafted 105, 87, 104,
107, 93, 97, 95, 100, 98, 80, 100, 90, 102, 100, 96, 99, 90, 112, 93, 108, 91
(some of those were me). His ADP is 99, but once you get there, he’ll be off
the board soon if not already.
Jack Hughes, C, NJ, (90% Yahoo
ownership): Like Heiskanen, I’m surprised Jack Hughes even needs to be here. I
had the feeling we were all wide awake on this kid who scored at a 94-point
pace last season. It’s likely that injury concerns are among the reasons that
people are passing, but in my mocks he has gone 51, 58, 81, 49, 109, 111, 97,
69, 90, 62, 84, 71, 78, 70, 72, 55, 71, 73, 96, 100, 104. Not sure what’s going
on at Yahoo, but I was thrilled to get him at 66 in my first real draft. I
ranked him at 52 in my pre-draft rankings, and he was drafted later than that
in 20 of 21 mocks and his ADP is 95. I’m pulling the trigger a little bit
earlier than what might be needed, because the potential upside is tantalizing.
I took him at 66 because there was only a 43% chance that he would still be
there at pick 79. Then I scooped up Laine at pick 79, so it all worked out.
Elvis Merzlikins, G, Cbj, (65%
Yahoo ownership): In my first 21 mock drafts, the two goalies who landed on my
team the most often were Juuse Saros and Elvis Merzlikins. There were a handful
of drafts where those were my two goalies. Though in my first real draft, Saros
was my 4th round pick and I took Georgiev as my second goalie
instead of Elvis because he slipped 15 spots past his ADP. Merzlikins has an
ADP of 155, which is in the same range as Pavel Francouz and Matt Murray (who
also represent good value later in the draft). Murray went undrafted in my
first real draft and was my first waiver wire claim of the season. Elvis even
went undrafted in a few of my 12-team mocks. I landed him 6 times at picks 168,
181, 187, 144, 223, 152. There must have been a run on goalies in the draft I
took him at 144, otherwise he’s often going much later than 155. Note that ADPs
on Yahoo get messed up in that range because they don’t adequately account for
players going undrafted.
Brayden Point, C, TB, (87%
Yahoo ownership): In my 21 mock drafts, Point was selected 65, 140, 86, 95,
105, 93, 119, 103, 86, 57, 91, 61, 88, 105, 73, 99, 103, 34, 104, 105. Point is
healthy heading into the season and had an ADP of 19 last fall on Yahoo. You
can get him in the 8th or 9th round. One of my strategies
in mocks has been to wait until at least round 7 to fill my 2C, because I can
always get either Hughes or Point. If that fails, Scheifele should still be
there in the 8th or 9th (sometimes even 10th or 11th). There’s no way Brayden Point should be on a sleeper list.
We should all know who the f**k this guy is. His inclusion is a failure of
Yahoo’s ranking system, but one I’m happy to exploit. If you’re wondering how
he fell to 140 in one of my mocks and I didn’t take him earlier, that’s valid.
His ADP is listed on Yahoo at 117, but he was taken earlier in 19 of my 21
mocks, so Yahoo’s number seems off. He was gone by pick 105 in 19 of 21. You
gotta take him in the 90s or right around 100. In my first real draft, I landed
Point at 103, which was 14 spots earlier than his ADP, but good value relative
to my mocks.
Cole Caufield, W, Mtl, (86%
Yahoo ownership): Another player who seems to be falling my way in several mock
drafts is Cole Caufield. One of the big reasons is that he’s often being taken
after pick 100, and it seems like I never have my RW slots filled by then, so
Cole tends to be at the top of the list when I’m filling out my final forward
positions. He had a brutal start to last season and got sent to the minors,
then Martin St. Louis became head coach and unlocked the cheat code. Goal
Caufield was outstanding in the second half, but he is being priced like that
first half might happen again. Caufield’s ADP is listed at 114, but the six
times he fell my way in mocks, it was at picks 120, 133, 128, 142, 124, 114.
But he was also gone by pick 100 in 5 of 21 mocks. He has a big variance in
where he’s being selected.
Patrik Laine, W, Cbj, (93%
Yahoo ownership): Due to right wing scarcity, Laine ends up in my queue in
nearly every mock draft, where he has been picked 66, 75, 84, 72, 62, 63, 74, 75,
71, 70, 73, 68, 95, 58, 75, 84, 70, 71, 82, 84, 78. I was thrilled to get him
in my first real draft in the 7th round at pick 79, which was later
than he was selected in 76% of my mocks. Basically, once you get to pick 70, he
should be coming off the board soon. I’m fascinated to see what this sniper can
do with Johnny Gaudreau. Laine can run hot and cold at both extremes, so many
of his past owners have mixed memories. This gamble might pay big dividends,
but I’m also nervous as someone who has owned Laine stock many times. While I’m
competing in category leagues that put an equal weight on goals and assists,
but I still value elite goal scorers higher because they’re harder to find than
high-end playmakers.
Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg, (84%
Yahoo ownership): Mark Scheifele has an ADP of 133 on Yahoo despite scoring
above a point per game pace each of the last 4 seasons. I managed to snag him
at pick 138 of my first real draft, and was elated. I’m a little suspicious of
that ADP because on average he went 104 in my mocks. He was gone by pick 133 in
20 of 21. In retrospect, it’s incredible I landed him at 138. The only cause
for concern is that he might be unhappy in Winnipeg, and is at some risk of
sub-optimal deployment from the new coach who wants to shake up the leadership
dynamic. Much like Blake Wheeler, I’m somewhat nervous that he could try “quiet
quitting” in protest if he doesn’t like the new system. Mark became a public
enemy on social media after the Jake Evans hit in the playoffs, which may have
contributed to his grumpy disgruntled behavior that’s been unfolding in
interviews this past year. Despite all of that, if you can get him in the 12th round of your draft as I did, that’s a bargain. Even if he completely
collapses, the acquisition cost was so low that it won’t bother me to drop him.
Vincent Trocheck, C, NYR, (57%
Yahoo ownership): Vincent Trocheck signed with the New York Rangers and all
indications are he will be centering a line with Artemi Panarin, which gives
him a higher ceiling than he had in Carolina. His ADP on Yahoo is 157, but he
has gone later than that in half my mocks, and even went undrafted in two of
them. I recently selected him at 175 in my first real draft, and pulled the
trigger despite already having three center-only players and two starting
slots. That’s among the reasons he’s slipping that late, but you can often find
him near the top of Yahoo’s daily waiver adds list, as he’s often going
undrafted but getting quickly scooped up off waivers. He was buried in Yahoo’s
rankings, so many won’t even see him in their queue during a draft unless they
scroll down. The fact that he had 185 hits last year is a big added bonus if
your league counts that category. You can potentially get a lottery ticket in
the last rounds.
October John
Gibson,
G, Ana, (56% Yahoo ownership): I do not advocate owning John Gibson for the
entire season, but he’s an excellent “pump and dump” candidate early in the
schedule. Each of the last 3 seasons, Gibson has started the schedule on fire,
before eventually falling apart. You can often get him in the last couple
rounds of your draft, and he’s an elite October bench option. After a few weeks
of excellent play, you can start shopping him around as trade bait. You might
get a decent return. He was only drafted in 16 of my 21 mocks, most often in
the last 2 rounds. That’s a great spot to roll the dice on early upside. If
you’re competing in a 12-team league, he might even be available on your waiver
wire after the draft. His ADP on Yahoo is 178, and at that range, there is
generally slim pickings in goal.
Runner ups:
*Roope Hintz
*Tage Thompson
*Jesper Bratt
*Trevor Zegras
*Jordan Kyrou
Deep Leagues: (under 40%
owned)
Artturi Lehkonen, W, Col, (29%
Yahoo ownership): With the injury to Gabriel Landeskog, Artturi Lehkonen is
expected to start the season playing on a line with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko
Rantanen. Before you get too excited, there is no guarantee this will last
after Landeskog returns to the line-up. All you’re doing by drafting Lehkonen
is taking a chance that the combo has great chemistry and the coach decides to
leave them together. Maybe don’t reach too soon, but he definitely has big home
run potential. The winger was only chosen once in my 21 mocks and pick 168.
Yahoo lists his ADP at 165 but he was undrafted in most of my mocks. Though he
has been one of the top waiver adds this past week, so word is getting out.
Marco Rossi, C, Min, (12%
Yahoo ownership): I’m quite certain the Marco Rossi breakout is coming, I’m
just not sure if it will be this year or next. He did miss an entire year of
development during the pandemic, and still had a successful rookie season in
the AHL. He’s currently projected to center the 2nd line with Matt
Boldy, but more important to his fantasy relevance is whether or not he can
earn significant minutes on the power play, which would give him time on ice
with Kaprizov. Roughly 1/3 of my mock drafts were 14-teams where 224 players
are chosen, and still Rossi was only selected once at pick 187. Yahoo does not
list an ADP, but clearly you can wait until the mid 200s. He’s worth extra in
dynasty formats.
Chris Wideman, D, Mtl, (2%
Yahoo ownership): Unless Martin St. Louis decides to use 5 forwards on the
power play, it seems highly likely that Chris Wideman will be on the top unit
in Montreal. After shipping out Romanov and Petry, new faces will be playing
new roles. Wideman is only 2% owned in Yahoo leagues, and going undrafted in
all but the deepest leagues. That ownership is far too low if he’s going to be
a power play workhorse. You won’t need to burn a high pick to get a potential
30+ point blueliner. If he does not end up on PP1 or gets booted off early in
the schedule, you won’t lose any sleep dropping him. Daily Faceoff currently
has Wideman listed on the first power play unit, and there’s not a natural
selection among the defense to bump him off.
Alexis Lafreniere, W, NYR, (36% Yahoo
ownership): How Lafreniere got buried at 499 in Yahoo rankings defies logic as
a recent 1st overall pick who showed improvement in the playoffs. I
won’t be drafting Lafreniere in a standard league, but he does have deep league
appeal. He was chosen in 4 of my mocks at picks 200, 186, 223, 211 (two of
those were me) which is later than his listed 163 on Yahoo. Otherwise, he
largely went undrafted. There is a world where he could end up on the top line
eventually, and if that happened, he would be the most added player on Yahoo by
far. Granted that hypothesis led me to include Kappo Kakko on my 2021 sleepers
list, which did not unfold as hoped.
Filip Hronek, D, Det, (9%
Yahoo ownership): At one point last season, Hronek was a healthy scratch in Detroit,
but he still played 78 GP and scored 38 PTS in Mo Seider’s shadow. The Wings
will have deeper forward lines that should give the offense a boost. He’s only
owned in 9% of Yahoo leagues, and you can get him really late in drafts. It’s
hard to find 40ish point D-men at his ADP. He was undrafted in all my mocks,
not generating any interest up to pick 224. Of all the defensemen who are 10%
owned or less, Hronek ranks #1 in my point projections, 5 PTS ahead of the next
best. I’m not telling you to reach too soon, simply that there aren’t any
better options where he’s going in drafts. He also had the highest point
projection among defensemen who went undrafted in all my mocks.
Andrei Kuzmenko, W, Van, (22%
Yahoo ownership): There hasn’t been this much buzz for a Canucks rookie since
the man, the myth, the legend Nils Hoglander. Kuzmenko generated some buzz in
the summer that the high scoring Russian could be another Panarin or Karpizov,
coming over to North America fully formed. The Kuze was just 7% owned on Yahoo
on September 1st, but after camp opened and he was skating with
Elias Pettersson, that number has shot up to 22% and climbing. He is high on
the daily most added player list, and still has plenty of room to grow. He’s
almost worth considering in a 12-team standard league, but I’m not adding him
just yet. In a deeper league, I would be very eager to roll the dice on that
upside. I currently have him projected for 48 PTS, which is below the
ownability threshold for standard formats, but I might be upgrading that
forecast before pre-season ends.
Philipp Grubauer, G, Sea, (26%
Yahoo ownership): Let me just say, I’m not exactly enthusiastic about Grubauer
bouncing back from an awful season. This selection was based entirely on having
at least one goaltender in my deep league recommendations (under 40% owned),
and there weren’t many better options. Kaapo Kahkonen received some
consideration, as did Cal Petersen, but both those options will be splitting
starts with another gatekeeper. Grubauer did have a few decency streaks last
season, but when it was bad, it was bad. He’s only 26% owned right now and
there is still a reasonable chance he’s decent. The Kraken should be a better
team, so it is probable that Grubauer has an improved outcome. Back-up Martin
Jones is not a big threat to steal starts. Certainly if you’re in a deep league
with goalie scarcity, I’d like Phil more to help me hit my minimum starts every
week.
Nick Schmaltz, C/W, Ari, (23%
Yahoo ownership): You may recall last season there was a window of a few weeks
when Nick Schmaltz and Clayton Keller were lighting the NHL on fire. The two
had found an incredible rhythm and made magic happen. My forecast is
conservative at 59 PTS, and there’s no guarantee that the dynamic duo
recaptures that magic, much less sustain it over 82 games. But there is no
player owned in fewer Yahoo leagues that I have projected for more PTS, and
that’s why Nicky is here. He’s my forward version of Hronek, a name on a bad
team that doesn’t get many people excited, but there’s value where you can draft
him. He did get selected in 3 of my mocks, at picks 191, 220, and 201. So there
are a few people who remember last season’s hot streak.
Jack Quinn, W, Buf, (8%
Yahoo ownership): Let me declare that I’m not even certain that Jack Quinn will
play the full season in the NHL, but he’s a potential lottery ticket if he
secures and sustains a top 6 role in Buffalo. At 8% owned, you can get him
really late in drafts, when it doesn’t exactly hurt to strike out. Daily
Faceoff currently has him projected on the 2nd line with Peyton
Krebs (who also received consideration for this list) and Alex Tuch. His AHL
production was remarkable last season, which by no means guarantees quality NHL
deployment, it’s simply an indicator that the ceiling is potentially high. He
did get picked in one of my 12-team mock drafts, oddly enough at pick 129,
which didn’t make much sense considering he was likely to be available in the
last round.
Phil Kessel, W, Veg, (20%
Yahoo ownership): If Phil Kessel had signed with Vegas on July 1st
and entered fantasy draft season with a higher rank, he probably wouldn’t be on
this list. What I like from Kessel at this point in time is that he’s only 20%
owned (up from 15% last week) and carries a very cheap acquisition cost. When
Yahoo set their xRank that heavily influences ADP, he didn’t even have a team
yet. Daily Faceoff currently has him playing on the top line with Jack Eichel
and Reilly Smith, which is a big upgrade from who he played with last season in
Arizona. Yahoo lists his ADP at 179, but he went undrafted in 20 of my 21
mocks. He was almost always still available at pick 224. He’s also showing up
daily on the most added player list. Keith Yandle thinks Phil is going to have
a big season, but that could have been a reverse jinx since Kessel is chasing
his ironman record.
Runner ups:
*Vitali Kravtsov
*Travis Konecny
*William Eklund
*Yegor
Sharangovich
*Chandler
Stephenson
Deepest Sleepers: (10% owned or
less):
* Dylan Cozens, Buf
* Pavel Zacha, Bos
* David Krejci,
Bos
* Lukas Reichel,
Chi
* Calen Addison,
Min
* Adin Hill, Veg
* Gustav Nyquist,
Cbj
* Joel Farabee,
Phi
* Travis Boyd, Ari
* Mike Matheson,
Mtl
.png)
No comments:
Post a Comment