Hockey is back! That means it’s
time for my first Waiver Wire Report of the 2023/24 season. It will be fewer
games than your average week, with nobody playing 4 times; Carolina, Chicago,
Nashville, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Tampa, Vegas playing 3; Arizona,
Dallas, Islanders, Washington playing just one. There are both standard and
deep league acquisition targets. This report focuses on the best options among
those who are likely to be available in your league, 10 recommendations in
total, 2 goalies, 2 defensemen, and 6 forwards (plus the same number of
honorable mentions). Some of these are only short-term targets, while others
you may want to keep permanently.
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary of hockey betting (covering October 2019 to May 2022), you should check out my latest book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. I wouldn’t put anything past him at this point, and I’ve got too many eggs in that basket. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
If you’re drafting this weekend
on Yahoo, feel free to use my own personal Pre-Draft Rankings
to order your queue at the draft. Also check out my Draft Bargains list for
some potential sleepers.
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
1) Vegas Goalies, Veg, (63% Yahoo ownership): If you’re lucky enough to find either Vegas goalie on waivers in any of your leagues, both of them are candidates to hold permanently, but are especially desirable in week one. I’m assuming their lower than deserved ownership is a product of unfair rankings, and that will correct itself once the season gets started. You’re more likely to find either Jonas Johansson or Philipp Grubauer on waivers, and both are decent streaming options given their schedule. I’m a little nervous about Johansson, but he has looked good in preseason.
2) Chandler Stephenson, Veg, (36% Yahoo ownership): Speaking of those Vegas Golden Knights, their opponents this week are Seattle, Anaheim, and San Jose, the latter two being wickedly porous defensively last season. Stephenson centers the 2nd line with Mark Stone and the top power play unit. He’s only owned in 36% of Yahoo leagues because they did him dirty in their rankings, affecting his draft stock (he averaged 61% last season). If you’re in a bangers league, his teammate Ivan Barbashev is 56% available and playing on the top line with Jack Eichel. He could have a big week even if your league doesn’t count hits.
3) Michael Bunting, Car, (51% Yahoo ownership): Carolina is among the teams with 5 games in the first 10 days of the season, and at least two of them should be high scoring. Bunting has a new team this season and has been slotted on the top line alongside Aho and Jarvis (more on him below). Not currently expected to play on the top power play unit, but listed on PP2 so he’ll get some PP time. If you want a 3-game forward who is top line and top power play, Taylor Hall in Chicago could be in line for a big season if Connor Bedard is half as good as people say, available in nearly 50% of leagues.
4) Jake Sanderson, Ott, (44% Yahoo ownership): It’s hard to say with certainly when the Jake Sanderson offensive breakout is coming, but he should at least be able to improve on the 32 PTS he posted last season. Thomas Chabot is currently manning the top power play, but Sanderson is listed on their PP2. The Sens play 3 games, that Sat-Sun back-to-back vs Philly and Tampa (no Vasilevskiy) could be high scoring. If your league counts hits and you need a little help winning the category, Luke Schenn is an excellent candidate to boost your physicality with Nashville playing 3 games.
5) Bryan Rust, Pit, (33% Yahoo ownership): The Pittsburgh Penguins are among this week’s “busy” teams (against all non-playoff teams) and will be flexing their new offensive weapon Erik Karlsson. All the forwards should benefit from the added firepower on the back-end, and Bryan Rust plays top line with Sidney Crosby (including the 2nd power play). Rest assured they’ll be trying to get Karlsson out with Sid as often as possible. I’m also interested in McDavid’s new wingman Connor Brown. The Oilers only play twice, but both against Vancouver and there’s a 50-50 chance they’ll suck.
Honorable Mentions: Ivan Barbashev, Taylor Hall, Jonas Johansson, Connor Brown, Luke Schenn
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary of hockey betting (covering October 2019 to May 2022), you should check out my latest book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. I wouldn’t put anything past him at this point, and I’ve got too many eggs in that basket. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
1) Vegas Goalies, Veg, (63% Yahoo ownership): If you’re lucky enough to find either Vegas goalie on waivers in any of your leagues, both of them are candidates to hold permanently, but are especially desirable in week one. I’m assuming their lower than deserved ownership is a product of unfair rankings, and that will correct itself once the season gets started. You’re more likely to find either Jonas Johansson or Philipp Grubauer on waivers, and both are decent streaming options given their schedule. I’m a little nervous about Johansson, but he has looked good in preseason.
2) Chandler Stephenson, Veg, (36% Yahoo ownership): Speaking of those Vegas Golden Knights, their opponents this week are Seattle, Anaheim, and San Jose, the latter two being wickedly porous defensively last season. Stephenson centers the 2nd line with Mark Stone and the top power play unit. He’s only owned in 36% of Yahoo leagues because they did him dirty in their rankings, affecting his draft stock (he averaged 61% last season). If you’re in a bangers league, his teammate Ivan Barbashev is 56% available and playing on the top line with Jack Eichel. He could have a big week even if your league doesn’t count hits.
3) Michael Bunting, Car, (51% Yahoo ownership): Carolina is among the teams with 5 games in the first 10 days of the season, and at least two of them should be high scoring. Bunting has a new team this season and has been slotted on the top line alongside Aho and Jarvis (more on him below). Not currently expected to play on the top power play unit, but listed on PP2 so he’ll get some PP time. If you want a 3-game forward who is top line and top power play, Taylor Hall in Chicago could be in line for a big season if Connor Bedard is half as good as people say, available in nearly 50% of leagues.
4) Jake Sanderson, Ott, (44% Yahoo ownership): It’s hard to say with certainly when the Jake Sanderson offensive breakout is coming, but he should at least be able to improve on the 32 PTS he posted last season. Thomas Chabot is currently manning the top power play, but Sanderson is listed on their PP2. The Sens play 3 games, that Sat-Sun back-to-back vs Philly and Tampa (no Vasilevskiy) could be high scoring. If your league counts hits and you need a little help winning the category, Luke Schenn is an excellent candidate to boost your physicality with Nashville playing 3 games.
5) Bryan Rust, Pit, (33% Yahoo ownership): The Pittsburgh Penguins are among this week’s “busy” teams (against all non-playoff teams) and will be flexing their new offensive weapon Erik Karlsson. All the forwards should benefit from the added firepower on the back-end, and Bryan Rust plays top line with Sidney Crosby (including the 2nd power play). Rest assured they’ll be trying to get Karlsson out with Sid as often as possible. I’m also interested in McDavid’s new wingman Connor Brown. The Oilers only play twice, but both against Vancouver and there’s a 50-50 chance they’ll suck.
Honorable Mentions: Ivan Barbashev, Taylor Hall, Jonas Johansson, Connor Brown, Luke Schenn
Best Deep League Adds (under 25% ownership):
1) Seth Jarvis, Car, (25% Yahoo ownership): Seth Jarvis might be headlining the “deep league” section of my Waiver Report, but he’s an all formats streaming option. I actually grabbed him with my last pick in a 12-team league specifically because I like their upcoming schedule, and he’s currently slotted line 1 and power play 1 with Aho. If that proves to be permanent, his ownership won’t stay at or under 25% very long. You could also go with William Karlsson, who should be able to pick up a few PTS for Vegas against San Jose and Anaheim. He does center their 2nd power play unit.
2) Andre Burakovsky, Sea, (11% Yahoo ownership): Andre Burakovsky averaged 38% ownership last season (peaking at 56% in December), but his stock seems to have slipped by virtue of the Yahoo rankings hurting his draft results (he missed a chunk of time due to injury). Burakovsky plays second line and top power play, scoring at a 65-point pace last season when healthy. It’s entirely reasonable he’s a 65-point player this season. If you’re looking for hits, Tanner Jeannot is available in 75% of leagues and plays on Tampa’s 2nd power play. Could be a sleeper if he can regain his scoring touch from 2 years ago.
3) Ryan O’Reilly, Nsh, (9% Yahoo ownership): Ryan O’Reilly averaged 47% Yahoo ownership last season, sinking all the way down to 9% this October with his new team the Nashville Predators. He’s currently slotted to play first line and second power play, but could easily sneak onto that PP1, especially when they have a faceoff in the offensive zone and want to win possession. His teammate Thomas Novak does play on PP1, and quietly scored at a 69-point pace last season, unexpectedly helping them come within an inch of the final playoff spot. He’s 94% available and a solid sleeper.
4) Jaccob Slavin, Car, (10% Yahoo ownership): The entire Carolina defense was on my bust list this year, due to a severe case of “too many mouths to feed” syndrome. Don’t spend meaningful draft capital to acquire any of them, but if you see one on waivers, they have an appealing schedule ahead (Ott, LA, Ana, then San Jose Tuesday week 2). Slavin shouldn’t see too much power play time this year, but 2 of their first 4 matches have high blowout probability. Justin Schultz in Seattle also plays 3 games with Schultz currently listed on their 2nd power play unit.
5) Elvis Merzlikins, Cbj, (14% Yahoo ownership): It’s very slim pickings for “deep league” goalies in week 1, as every decent goalie expected to start a reasonable number of games is more than 25% owned. If you’re desperate, Elvis is 86% available and was good 2 years ago. Columbus strengthened their back end in the offseason, so it should be a friendlier environment for their goalies. You could also go with an Anton Forsberg Senators spot-start against Philadelphia, assuming they’ll give Korpisalo the tougher game vs Tampa the next day.
Honorable Mentions: Thomas Novak, Tanner Jeannot, Justin Schultz, William Karlsson, Anton Forsberg
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