Frans Nielsen Contract Comparables

On July 1st 2016 the Detroit Red Wings signed 32 year old Frans Nielsen to a 6 contract for $32M ($5.52M AAV). This is a lot of money and a lot of term to give to a 32 year old. 91% of contracts given out to players of that age (in the salary cap era) are less than 5 seasons long. 75% are 3 years or less. Of the 32 year olds who signed new contracts, 62% experienced a statistical decline in the first year of the contract.

There are very few direct comparables for Nielsen because NHL teams are generally reluctant to give that much term to 32 year old athletes. The hope for the Red Wings is that he does not have a significant injury history and may not decline like many do in their mid to late 30s. It's not uncommon for some Scandinavian players to remain productive older than expected (like Alfredsson, Lidstrom, Selanne, etc). If his Viking blood does not slow down his rate of decline, this could turn out to be a really bad contract.

Here are some comparables.

Name	POS	YEAR1	Term	Money
Kimmo Timonen	D	2008	6	$38,000,000
Marian Gaborik	F	2015	7	$34,125,000
Jason Spezza	F	2016	4	$30,000,000
Lubomir Visnovsky	D	2009	5	$28,000,000
Michael Cammalleri	F	2015	5	$25,000,000
Joe Thornton	F	2012	3	$21,000,000
Andy McDonald	F	2010	4	$18,800,000
Alexandre Burrows	F	2014	4	$18,000,000
Erik Cole	F	2012	4	$18,000,000
Paul Kariya	F	2008	3	$18,000,000