NHL 3rd Round Draft Pick Probabilities and Expected Value

What is the expected value of a third round pick in the NHL draft (specifically picks 61 to 90)? Answers below.


ABOUT THE DATA

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added. For more information about the data, click here.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP by any given age. The chart at the bottom is for Expected GP and PTS.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

*Over half of 3rd round picks won't play a game in the NHL by age 25

	PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	x	x
19	95.9%	4.1%	0.4%	0.0%	x
20	86.6%	13.4%	5.7%	0.0%	x
21	73.8%	26.2%	18.7%	1.8%	0.0%
22	60.4%	39.6%	28.4%	6.1%	0.0%
23	52.7%	47.3%	37.1%	12.6%	1.2%
24	52.9%	47.1%	37.9%	16.4%	2.9%
25	52.1%	47.9%	38.5%	20.5%	5.1%
	PROBABILITY OF NHL PTS MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	x
19	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	x
20	93.1%	6.9%	2.0%	0.0%	x
21	79.6%	20.4%	8.0%	0.0%	0.0%
22	68.5%	31.5%	12.2%	0.5%	0.0%
23	60.5%	39.5%	20.4%	4.8%	0.0%
24	59.3%	40.7%	22.9%	4.3%	0.0%
25	58.1%	41.9%	29.1%	6.0%	0.0%
	PROBABILITY OF AHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	94.8%	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%	x
19	78.4%	21.6%	8.2%	0.0%	x
20	39.0%	61.0%	51.6%	4.9%	x
21	24.9%	75.1%	66.2%	30.2%	x
22	18.8%	81.2%	76.1%	43.7%	0.0%
23	15.6%	84.4%	79.0%	53.3%	1.8%
24	14.3%	85.7%	80.7%	55.7%	4.3%
25	14.5%	85.5%	81.2%	56.4%	8.5%

	STATS/PICKS
	NHL	NHL	AHL	AHL
AGE	GP	PTS	GP	PTS
18	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0
19	0.2	0.0	4.6	1.5
20	2.3	0.5	27.1	9.8
21	6.2	2.0	30.3	12.5
22	10.0	3.2	30.4	12.9
23	12.9	4.8	20.3	8.6
24	12.5	4.3	11.8	5.1
25	14.9	4.9	8.7	3.4
Sum	58.9	19.8	133.3	53.9

Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Then there is the ability to determine what proportion of the sample is earning what salary at any given age.  $0 players are those who play zero regular season games in the AHL or NHL (some players with season long injuries still register a cap number, like E.Johnson). It's important to note that these are not career earnings below, but rather for that specific age.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.

Expected Value: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included.

Analysis:

* 11% of 3rd round draft picks will be earning at least a million dollars AAV at age 25.

	SALARY INFO
		% of players earning this salary range
AGE	Salary/Pro	$0	< $1M	> $ 1M	> $4M
18	$31,875	94.8%	5.2%	0.0%	0.0%
19	$73,903	80.2%	19.8%	0.0%	0.0%
20	$64,902	39.0%	61.0%	0.0%	0.0%
21	$128,539	28.9%	71.1%	0.0%	0.0%
22	$160,540	27.4%	72.1%	0.5%	0.0%
23	$284,712	38.9%	53.3%	7.8%	0.6%
24	$296,985	52.1%	38.6%	9.3%	0.7%
25	$380,504	59.8%	29.1%	11.1%	0.9%
sum	$1,390,085
	SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE	Salary-E[V]	E[V]	Sum(E{V])	Salary/GP	Salary/PTS
19	$232	$73,671	$73,671	$30,677	$135,488
20	$509	$64,393	$138,064	$20,970	$93,689
21	$1,056	$127,483	$265,546	$16,577	$51,938
22	$96	$160,444	$425,991	$14,357	$44,426
23	$35	$284,677	$710,668	$21,198	$57,229
24	$0	$296,985	$1,007,653	$23,678	$69,066
25	-$0	$380,504	$1,388,156	$25,571	$76,889
Sum	$1,928

Development Matrix

If you would like to see how a sample of draft picks advances through different leagues and skill levels, welcome to the Development Matrix (or more correctly, matrices). If a draft pick played at least 1 game at any level last year, where is he likely to go next year?

Important Notes:

* KHL = Russian Elite, EurMA  = Euro Mainland Elite (Czeck, Slovakia, Germany, Swiss), ScanA = Scandinavian Elite (Sweden and Finland), EurB = All of the 2nd tier European leagues, EurJr = All European junior leagues,  CHL = Canadian Major Junior, WJC = Under 20 World Junior Championship, Tier II = All North American amateur that doesn't ruin NCAA eligibility, USDP = United States Development Program

* Age 17 is the first year of NHL draft eligibility.

* Charts meant to be read left to right, not up and down.

* Do not sum the numbers in any direction. It is what percentage of the sample played at least 1 game at any level and many play at more than one level.

Analysis:

* 14% of 3rd round picks play in the World Junior Championship the year after first year draft eligibility.

%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 18
Sample	at Age 17	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
3.7%	KHL	10.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.5%	EurMA	75.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5.6%	ScanA	13.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9.3%	EurB	24.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2.2%	NCAA	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
51.1%	CHL	99.3%	0.0%	10.2%	0.0%
1.5%	WJC	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12.3%	Eurjr	27.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
22.0%	Tier II	10.2%	52.5%	0.0%	0.0%
5.6%	USDP	13.3%	86.7%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 19
Sample	at Age 18	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
0.0%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5.2%	AHL	78.6%	0.0%	42.9%	7.1%
4.9%	KHL	7.7%	0.0%	7.7%	7.7%
0.7%	EurMA	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%
6.7%	ScanA	5.6%	0.0%	5.6%	0.0%
9.3%	EurB	8.0%	0.0%	16.0%	4.0%
17.5%	NCAA	12.8%	89.4%	6.4%	0.0%
57.1%	CHL	88.9%	0.0%	27.5%	6.5%
14.6%	WJC	38.5%	10.3%	15.4%	7.7%
9.0%	Eurjr	8.3%	0.0%	12.5%	0.0%
11.2%	Tier II	13.3%	66.7%	3.3%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 20
Sample	at Age 19	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
4.1%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	55.6%
18.7%	AHL	2.2%	0.0%	97.8%	19.6%
1.5%	ECHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
4.5%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	27.3%	9.1%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7.1%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	44.4%	5.6%
6.3%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	31.3%	0.0%
23.1%	NCAA	7.1%	80.4%	19.6%	3.6%
54.5%	CHL	17.0%	0.0%	79.3%	14.8%
24.6%	WJC	3.3%	14.8%	60.7%	21.3%
3.7%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%
3.0%	Tier II	12.5%	87.5%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 21
Sample	at Age 20	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
11.8%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	89.7%	89.7%
59.8%	AHL	0.0%	24.8%	89.5%	35.3%
17.9%	ECHL	0.0%	55.0%	75.0%	5.0%
3.3%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.2%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5.7%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	16.7%
3.7%	EurB	0.0%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%
21.1%	NCAA	78.7%	6.4%	38.3%	12.8%
10.2%	CHL	0.0%	58.3%	75.0%	0.0%
0.8%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%
0.4%	Tier II	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 22
Sample	at Age 21	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
24.0%	NHL	0.0%	2.3%	70.5%	79.5%
68.4%	AHL	0.0%	19.4%	83.6%	44.0%
22.2%	ECHL	0.0%	53.2%	72.3%	8.5%
3.6%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.8%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4.4%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	55.6%	33.3%
5.3%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	8.3%	0.0%
16.9%	NCAA	46.9%	18.8%	53.1%	12.5%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 23
Sample	at Age 22	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
34.0%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	50.8%	69.5%
66.0%	AHL	0.0%	19.4%	65.7%	38.0%
17.8%	ECHL	0.0%	58.6%	31.0%	3.4%
5.1%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	0.0%
2.5%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3.6%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5.1%	EurB	0.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%
7.6%	NCAA	33.3%	16.7%	58.3%	8.3%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 24
Sample	at Age 23	KHL	ECHL	AHL	NHL
32.3%	NHL	2.4%	2.4%	33.3%	90.5%
46.7%	AHL	4.3%	17.4%	49.3%	37.7%
16.8%	ECHL	0.0%	44.0%	12.0%	0.0%
7.2%	KHL	90.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3.6%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	20.0%
6.6%	ScanA	11.1%	0.0%	11.1%	0.0%
6.0%	EurB	0.0%	11.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2.4%	NCAA	0.0%	25.0%	75.0%	0.0%