Buying NHL Goals

What does it cost to buy goals on the free agent market in the NHL? We are looking at forwards who scored x number of goals in a season before becoming a free agent since the league had a salary cap, and what we can expect those scorers to earn on the open market. I'm not distinguishing between restricted and unrestricted Free Agents, but I'll break them down into categories by age and number of goals scored. Most players under 26 will be RFAs and most over will be UFAs, with exceptions of course. This is not the complete list of players, but rather the ones who fit my qualifying criteria. They are large samples.

The graphs below show the cost of each range of goal scorer according to each range of age. Beneath each graph is the expected term and Average Annual Value of each group. We do see a paradox where the larger the term, the higher the average annual salary. Often in contract negotiations, teams can get players to accept a smaller average salary if it means they'll get a longer term. The reason we don't see AAV decrease as term increases is because we are looking at differences between players, not differences in the options available to each player. It tends to be the better players who get the most term, that's why their AAV is higher.

The Goals statistic is adjusted into Goals*; a player's goals per game multiplied by 82 games for those who played at least 20 games. Because the salary cap has grown to $73,000,000 from $39,000,000 all contracts are calculated as a % of the cap and then converted into 2017 numbers. To see the full range of outcomes for each category and their corresponding probabilities, scroll down even further.

Buying 10-19 Goals

Median contract length and Expected Avg Annual Value:

Age 20-25: 2 years $1.9M (E[AAV])
Age 26-29: 2 years, $2.5M (E[AAV])
Age 30+: 1 years, $2.3M (E[AAV])

When buying a Free Agent forward who has scored 10-19 goals, there is not much variation by age. It’s not expensive to buy a goal scorer in this range, due mostly to an abundant supply. There is an average of 57 of these free agents any given summer. Over 60% of all 10-19 goal scorers will get 2 years or less on their term, regardless of age. The players who hit the big contracts in this category are those who add 40-60 assists on top of their 10-19 goals (recent examples Jakub Voracek and Evgeni Kuznetzov). 

Of the Under-26 players who become RFAs after scoring 10-19 goals, 77% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 2% of the cap ($1.5M AAV in 2017). A high point total can still lead to a large contract, but the large majority are getting short term deals for a relatively small salary. Looking at the contracts for 10-19 goal scorers which resulted in the 10 biggest overpayments, 60% were aged 28 or 29 and received term of 5 or more years. The worst examples of these were David Clarkson, Scott Gomez, and Alex Semin.

Buying 20-29 Goals 

Median contract length and Expected Avg Annual Value:

Age 20-25: 3 years $3.5M (E[AAV])
Age 26-29: 4 years, $4.7M (E[AAV])
Age 30+: 2 years, $3.8M (E[AAV])

On average there are 27 of these players on the UFA/RFA market any given offseason, more than half as many as the previous group. For players aged 26-29, 40% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 8.6% of cap ($6.2M AAV in 2017). When a 20-29 goal scorer reaches the UFA market, 76% will get a term of 3 years or longer at a significantly higher wage than comparable RFAs. It's clear from the results that teams are able to attain wage suppression on the RFA players who score 20-29 goals versus those who are more likely to be UFAs. 

A restricted free agent will have their wage suppressed because they are mostly only negotiating with one team. The Collective Bargaining Agreement makes it easy for teams to suppress the wages of young players, whereas the market itself will naturally reduce the expected wage for older goal scorers. 2/3 of 20-29 goal scorers over the age of 30 will only get 1 or 2 years of term. Of the over-30 players who received more than 3 years of term, at least 25% end up resulting in a buyout (like Brad Richards, Mike Cammaleri, and RJ Umberger), and 75% qualified as one worst salary cap era contracts for the signing franchise (according to my list of 10 worst contracts for every team). Ergo there is tremendous risk giving significant term to over-30 aged goal scorers.

Buying 30+ Goals

Median contract length and Expected Avg Annual Value:

Age 20-25: 5 years $5.9M (E[AAV])
Age 26-29: 6 years, $6.8M (E[AAV])
Age 30+: 2.5 years, $5.7M (E[AAV])

Buying 30+ goals is going to be expensive regardless of age, due in large part to scarcity. We only see approximately 8 of these players reach the free agent market any given offseason (with only 3 to 4 becoming UFAs, on average). A 30-goal scorer who becomes UFA will more often than not get a very large contract, both in term and annual salary. Those aged 30+ will average half as much term. There is incredible risk giving long term contracts to players beyond the age of 30, especially when goal scoring is the primary skill set you're seeking. It's common to see sharp dramatic goal scoring declines in players over-30 (like Chris Drury and Loui Eriksson).

For 30 goal scorers under 26 years of age, 65% will get a contract that is 5 years in length or greater. Teams are more likely to seek long term contracts for young players who can reach the 30-goal plateau, versus the standard 1-3 year bridge deals that we often see for less productive players. Two of the "young guns" who did get shorter term deals are Nikita Kucherov and Ryan Johansen, where their teams took hardline approaches and forced them into team-friendly contracts.

Full Range of Outcomes per Group

1a) Under the age of 26, at least 30 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 29 players
Median term = 5 years
Average Salary per season = 8.3% of cap, or $6M in 2017

65% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 9.5% of cap, $6.9M AAV in 2017.
20% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 6.4% of cap, $4.6M AAV in 2017.

1b) Under the age of 26, between 20-29 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 130 players
Median term = 3 years
Average Salary per season = 4.9% of cap, or $3.6M in 2017

47% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 3.2% of cap, $2.3M AAV in 2017.
28% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 5.2% of cap, $3.8M AAV in 2017.
25% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 7.8% of cap, $5.6M AAV in 2017.

1c) Under the age of 26, between 10-19 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 244 players
Median term = 2 years
Average Salary per season = 2.7% of cap, or $1.9M in 2017

77% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 2% of cap, $1.5M AAV in 2017.
16% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 4.2% of cap, $3M AAV in 2017.
7% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 6.2% of cap, $4.5M AAV in 2017.

2a) Age 26-29, at least 30 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 23 players
Median term = 6 years
Average Salary per season = 9.4% of cap, or $6.9M in 2017

74% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 9.8% of cap, $7M AAV in 2017.
26% get a term of 1-3 years at an average of 8.4% of cap, $6.1M AAV in 2017.

2b) Age 26-29, between 20-29 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 72 players
Median term = 4 years
Average Salary per season = 6.5% of cap, or $4.8M in 2017

40% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 8.6% of cap, $6.2M AAV in 2017.
36% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 5.8% of cap, $4.2M AAV in 2017.
24% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 3.8% of cap, $2.7M AAV in 2017.

2c) Age 26-29, between 10-19 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 148 players
Median term = 2 years
Average Salary per season = 3.5% of cap, or $2.6M in 2017

56% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 2.3% of cap, $1.6M AAV in 2017.
32% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 4% of cap, $2.9M AAV in 2017.
12% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 7.7% of cap, $5.5M AAV in 2017.

3a) At least 30 years old, at least 30 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 22 players
Median term = 2.5 years
Average Salary per season = 7.9% of cap, or $5.8M in 2017

45% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 8.3% of cap, $6M AAV in 2017.
32% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 6.3% of cap, $4.6M AAV in 2017.

23% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 9.3% of cap, $6.7M AAV in 2017.

3b) At least 30 years old, between 20-29 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 60 players
Median term = 2 years
Average Salary per season = 5.3% of cap, or $3.9M in 2017

67% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 4.2% of cap, $3M AAV in 2017.
20% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 7.3% of cap, $5.3M AAV in 2017.
13% get a term of 5+ years at an average of 7.3% of cap, $5.3M AAV in 2017.

3c) At least 30 years old, between 10-19 Goals* before becoming FA:

Sample size= 119 players
Median term = 1 years
Average Salary per season = 3.2% of cap, or $2.4M in 2017

84% get a term of 1-2 years at an average of 2.8% of cap, $2M AAV in 2017.
16% get a term of 3-4 years at an average of 5.5% of cap, $4M AAV in 2017.