Every
year the Hockey News releases a magazine that ranks the best NHL prospects who
are not currently playing in the big leagues. I always buy the first copy I see
on newsstands every spring and keep Future Watch rankings in my spreadsheet of
draft picks from 2004-2016. I lack detailed knowledge of the process that goes
into making their rankings, though it is obvious they conduct dozens of
interviews with scouts and are clients of the International Scouting Service.
I'm
curious to see if I can predict what the top 75 order will be in 2018 with any
reasonable accuracy. There is really no point trying to predict who will be in
the individual Team top 10, since that will be mostly made up of the same
players printed in their beginning of the season yearbook, with some minor
alterations. They recently started ranking their top 100 prospects, but
historically it was just 75 so I'll be sticking with that number. The HN
excludes players currently playing in the NHL at the time they compile their
list, who could have been sent back down by the time I made my list. So there
will be some players excluded because they were promoted or demoted, before or
after submission deadlines.
I
started with a statistical estimate of where prospects would be based on draft
position and last year's ranking (if they are not already in the NHL), then
moved them up and down based on how they are performing so far this season.
Hockey News Prospect "guru" Ryan Kennedy shares significant
responsibility for Future Watch rankings, and I do listen to his Prospects
Podcast. That does provide me with some indication of where they are leaning on
certain players. Also, I don't bother ranking goalie prospects.
For
more reading on the subject of Future Watch, check out these posts "Probability of Draft Picks Being Ranked In Future Watch" and "Expected Future Value of Future Watch Prospects".
Expected 2018 Future Watch Top 75 Rankings Order:
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