These are mostly an average of comparable outcomes, but you can have a 40% chance of a 2 year deal, a 40% chance of a 6 year deal, and a 5% chance of a 4 year deal; where the average is 4 years because it's half way between the most probable outcomes (but itself unlikely). In this prediction list, I'm not always choosing one extreme or the other, but splitting the difference to minimize how much I'll be off by.
AAV stands for the average annual salary.
UFA FORWARDS
The UFA's tend to be easier to predict that RFAs. In the case of John Tavares, he can get whatever he wants on the market. But he may accept slightly less money to play on a better team. There will be somebody offering him a $12M average annual salary (AAV), though he may not want to play for that organization. It's hard to do a comparables analysis of a player on the level of Tavares. He doesn't have a lot of contemporaries at his skill level that tested the UFA market at his age.
| PLAYER | AGE | TERM | AAV | TOTAL |
| John Tavares | 27 | 7 | 10.5 | 73.5 |
| David Perron | 30 | 5 | 5.0 | 25.0 |
| James van Riemsdyk | 29 | 4 | 5.0 | 20.0 |
| Paul Stastny | 32 | 3 | 5.0 | 15.0 |
| James Neal | 30 | 3 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Riley Nash | 29 | 3 | 3.0 | 9.0 |
| Tyler Bozak | 32 | 2 | 4.0 | 8.0 |
| Patrick Maroon | 30 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Leo Komarov | 31 | 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Derek Ryan | 31 | 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Michael Grabner | 30 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Blake Comeau | 32 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Joe Thornton | 38 | 1 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Rick Nash | 33 | 1 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Matt Calvert | 28 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Jay Beagle | 32 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Antoine Roussel | 28 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Thomas Vanek | 34 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Tomas Plekanec | 35 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Cody McLeod | 33 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Ryan Reaves | 31 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Valtteri Filppula | 34 | 1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Kyle Brodziak | 34 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Antoine Vermette | 35 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Mark Letestu | 33 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Brad Richardson | 33 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Chris Kunitz | 38 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Jason Chimera | 39 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Matt Cullen | 41 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Chris Stewart | 30 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Lance Bouma | 28 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Matt Stajan | 34 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Lee Stempniak | 35 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Jussi Jokinen | 35 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Jannik Hansen | 32 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Joel Ward | 37 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Torrey Mitchell | 33 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Jordan Nolan | 28 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Dominic Moore | 37 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| JT Brown | 27 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
RFA FORWARDS
There will surely be more contracts in the 4-7 year range for this group. The range of outcomes for comparable RFAs is diverse. Sometimes you'll see a 30% chance at a 2 year contract or a 20% chance at a 5-6 year contract. In most of those cases I'm just splitting the difference instead of choosing between the short and long term options.
| PLAYER | AGE | TERM | AAV | TOTAL |
| Dylan Larkin | 21 | 6 | 6.0 | 36.0 |
| William Karlsson | 25 | 6 | 6.0 | 36.0 |
| Jason Zucker | 26 | 4 | 5.0 | 20.0 |
| William Nylander | 22 | 4 | 5.0 | 20.0 |
| Mark Stone | 26 | 3 | 5.8 | 17.4 |
| JT Miller | 25 | 3 | 4.5 | 13.5 |
| Tomas Hertl | 24 | 3 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 25 | 3 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Kevin Hayes | 26 | 3 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Tom Wilson | 24 | 3 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Elias Lindholm | 23 | 3 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
| Anthony Mantha | 23 | 3 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
| Sam Reinhart | 22 | 3 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
| Boone Jenner | 24 | 3 | 3.0 | 9.0 |
| Ryan Spooner | 26 | 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 |
| Brock Nelson | 26 | 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 |
| Riley Sheahan | 26 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Ryan Strome | 24 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Andreas Athanasiou | 23 | 2 | 2.2 | 4.4 |
| Devin Shore | 23 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Jared McCann | 22 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Sven Baertschi | 25 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Nick Ritchie | 22 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Joel Armia | 25 | 2 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| Jimmy Vesey | 25 | 2 | 1.8 | 3.6 |
| Phillip Danault | 25 | 2 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| Markus Granlund | 25 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Miles Wood | 22 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Ryan Hartman | 23 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Mark Jankowski | 23 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Anthony Duclair | 22 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Adam Lowry | 25 | 2 | 1.4 | 2.8 |
| Dmitrij Jaskin | 25 | 2 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Drake Caggiula | 23 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Jake Virtanen | 21 | 2 | 1.2 | 2.4 |
| Tobias Rieder | 25 | 1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Nail Yakupov | 24 | 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Matt Nieto | 25 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Nick Shore | 25 | 1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Joakim Nordström | 26 | 1 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
UFA DEFENSEMEN
John Carlson is in a similar situation to Tavares, and should get at least one offer at $12M+. Would he take less to play for a better team? It's possible, but he did just win the Stanley Cup, so he might not be as desperate to win right away as JT. There a really good chance he's taking the best offer. Kempny is a tough one to judge. His regular season numbers suggest a 2 year deal in the $1.5M range, but his playoff performance is likely to earn him significantly more than that.
| PLAYER | AGE | TERM | AAV | TOTAL |
| John Carlson | 28 | 7 | 12.0 | 84.0 |
| Michal Kempný | 27 | 4 | 4.0 | 16.0 |
| Mike Green | 32 | 3 | 4.5 | 13.5 |
| John Moore | 27 | 3 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
| Luca Sbisa | 28 | 3 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
| Jack Johnson | 31 | 3 | 3.0 | 9.0 |
| Nick Holden | 31 | 3 | 2.5 | 7.5 |
| Brandon Manning | 28 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Dan Hamhuis | 35 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Ian Cole | 29 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Thomas Hickey | 29 | 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Calvin De Haan | 27 | 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 |
| Luke Schenn | 28 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Christian Folin | 27 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Alexei Emelin | 32 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Johnny Oduya | 36 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Kevin Connauton | 28 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Toby Enström | 33 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Josh Gorges | 33 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Roman Polák | 32 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Andrej Sustr | 27 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
RFA DEFENSEMEN
Like with the RFA forwards, this is a tough group to predict. It's worth pointing out that I gave Trouba and Ceci lower term than their comparable averages, simply because I don't think they want to lock in 5+ years with their current franchise.
| PLAYER | AGE | TERM | AAV | TOTAL |
| Matt Dumba | 23 | 6 | 6.0 | 36.0 |
| Noah Hanifin | 21 | 5 | 4.2 | 21.0 |
| Darnell Nurse | 23 | 4 | 4.0 | 16.0 |
| Colin Miller | 25 | 4 | 4.0 | 16.0 |
| Shea Theodore | 22 | 3 | 4.0 | 12.0 |
| Brandon Montour | 24 | 3 | 3.5 | 10.5 |
| Brady Skjei | 24 | 3 | 3.1 | 9.3 |
| Jacob Trouba | 24 | 2 | 4.5 | 9.0 |
| Joshua Morrissey | 23 | 3 | 3.0 | 9.0 |
| Cody Ceci | 24 | 2 | 3.6 | 7.2 |
| Joel Edmundson | 24 | 2 | 2.7 | 5.4 |
| Ryan Pulock | 23 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Patrik Nemeth | 26 | 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 |
| Troy Stecher | 24 | 2 | 2.0 | 4.0 |
| Ryan Murray | 24 | 2 | 1.7 | 3.4 |
| Matthew Benning | 24 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Jamie Oleksiak | 25 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Robert Hägg | 23 | 2 | 1.5 | 3.0 |
| Matt Grzelcyk | 24 | 2 | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Brandon Davidson | 26 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Alex Petrovic | 26 | 1 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
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