Correlation Between NHL Statistics and Free Agent Salary

How much do individual statistics affect the amount of money that NHL free agents get on their next contract? We are looking at player statistics for 2439 pending free agents (from 2008-2018, excluding 2013), and how much money they received on their next contract (as a % of the salary cap), breaking it down by forwards and defensemen. The most important variable is exactly what you'd expect, points. There are not many surprises, with the most interesting conclusions coming in the differences between positions.

There are some interesting results, primarily on the differences between forwards and defensemen. Here is a summary of my conclusions.

*Defensemen ice time per game almost as important as Points: Points are the most important variable affecting forwards salary, but for defensemen, time on ice per game is just as important as scoring PTS. The D-men who play the most time on ice tend to be the most well-rounded players who are effective at both ends of the ice. Specialists tend to get more limited minutes. Being able to effectively log heavy minutes is a valuable commodity on the blueline. It's still important for forwards to be able to play big minutes (over 75% correlation), it's just less important than scoring.

*Power Play Ice more important for forwards: Defensemen who can quarterback a power play will almost always get a wage premium on the open market, however time spent on the ice for the man advantage has a stronger correlation to salary for forwards on average. Part of that would come from the increased importance on PTS for forwards, with PTS being strongly correlated to power play time. It's easier for a defenseman to hit a big pay day without being a point producer (see Karl Alzner, Brooks Orpik, Danny Dekeyser, Andy Greene, etc).

*Ability to kill penalties much more important for defensemen: Forwards don't need to kill penalties to get paid, they need to score PTS. It's the forwards who have trouble scoring PTS that need the skill to simply get NHL employment. Teams generally make sure to have a few forwards who can kill penalties on the 3rd and 4th lines. Penalty killing is not something you get paid to do, unless you are a defenseman. It's just harder for teams to roster defensemen who can't kill penalties.

*Physicality more valuable to defensemen: Hitting isn't really a skill that gets you paid as a forward. Every so often there will be a point scorer who can hit, and that type can get a wage premium (see Milan Lucic, David Backes, Brandon Dubinsky, Dustin Brown, etc), but mostly it's the lower tier players who do a majority of the hitting. They don't do it to get extra millions, they do it to get a job. It’s similar to killing penalties.

We do see heavy hitting defensemen getting higher pay days than their forward playing counterparts (see Dustin Byfuglien, Zdeno Chara, Dion Phaneuf, Brent Seabrook, Shea Weber, Brooks Orpik, etc). Those who can both score points while collecting big hit totals certainly get some of the largest contracts at the position.

*Faceoff wins don’t matter for defensemen: Duh. There is a 35% correlation between forward faceoff wins and salary, which mostly comes in the form of a wage premium for centers. Players don't tend to get paid much extra to be good at face-offs, it's just hard to find good centers, so market scarcity does inflate their price.

*Defensemen Paid For Blocks?: There is a greater than 50% correlation between defensemen blocks and future salary. That doesn't necessarily mean that they got paid for blocking shots, but rather paid to get hit by pucks. It's a defenseman's job to be between the shooter and the net. Even if he's not trying to block them, he's going to get hit by certain percentage just for being in the way. Defensemen are rarely out there making saves. Most of these are the result of being in the right spot. Block totals can also be a reflection of how much time a defenseman spends in the defensive zone. Those with a higher % defensive zone starts are going to get hit by more pucks. 

Many of the defensemen who put up high block and low point totals are not highly rewarded on the free agent market (with some exceptions). It’s not a skill that by itself gets you paid. We see that correlation mostly because all defensemen get hit by pucks. The average number of blocks for a defenseman who plays at least 80 games is 126, and 75% with over 80 GP will get at least 100 blocks. It’s an occupational hazard.