2019/20 Fantasy Hockey Busts

Here is my 2019/20 NHL Fantasy Hockey Bust list. There are two factors that can qualify a player for this list, either I’m expecting a big PTS decline, or his average draft position on Yahoo is too high. Some players that should decline are still being drafted relatively appropriately. Last year I had Ty Rattie as both my #1 sleeper and my #1 bust. I knew that one or the other would turn out to be right, and he was indeed the biggest bust of last season.

*DISCLAIMER* Many of these players will still be good, they're just players I'm not reaching for in fantasy drafts. Except Marincin, who should not be owned in any format.

1) Martin Marincin, Toronto, (16% owned): It’s regretful that Marincin even needs to be here, but the mystery algorithm that Yahoo’s stat provider uses to rank players somehow once again crapped out a top 200 ranking for Marincin. Think of this as a public service announcement to pre-rank your players and put Marincin on your excluded list, because should you end up auto-drafting any picks, you could log back in to find this turd on your team. So far Marincin has been drafted in all my real and mock drafts on Yahoo. His average draft position is 158 when it should be about 658.

2) Jamie Benn, Dallas, (98% owned): There may be some bounce back potential in Benn this season, I’m just not convinced he’s going to bounce all the way back up from 53 PTS to 79 PTS. His current average draft position on Yahoo is 58, and that’s just too high for me. There are reasons to be optimistic about the Dallas Stars, who should now be able to roll 2 productive scoring lines, which could actually prevent Benn from returning to the highs he hit on the super-line with Radulov and Seguin. He’s currently being drafted like he’s an 80-point player.

3) Patrice Bergeron, Boston, (99% owned): The two best seasons of Bergeron’s career (in terms of PTS per game) have come at age 32 and 33. He hasn’t just eluded Father Time, he punched him in the face. Part of the Bergeron renaissance can be attributed to the Pasternak breakout, that has seen Patrice thrive on a stacked top line. Can he continue that success at age 34? Another trip to the Stanley Cup finals last year put even more miles on his odometer, and he came into training camp with lingering health issues. He may very well have another solid season, I’m just not taking that bet, especially with an average draft position of 29.

4) PK Subban, New Jersey, (99% owned): PK will try to bounce back from a disappointing season as he attempts to establish himself with his new team. I fully expect him to improve on the 31 PTS he scored last season. The reason he’s on this list is because of where he is being drafted in Yahoo leagues, with an ADP of 48. There is nothing wrong with owning PK Subban in fantasy hockey, just don’t draft him where he’s being drafted. If he falls to you a few rounds later, that’s fine. My projection for PK is 44 PTS.

5) Phil Kessel, Arizona, (96% owned): Moving from one of the league’s best power plays to one of the worst cannot help production. To make matters worse, they have discussed Barret Hayton beginning the season on the top line with Keller and Stepan, which would be bad news for Kessel. All signs are pointing to a Phil Kessel bust, the fact that he’s 31 years old doesn’t help. Daily Faceoff still lists him on a line with Keller and Stepan; which seems like it should be the best fit. My projection for Phil is 70 PTS, his average draft position is 66, which is not a terrible place to pick him. Just don’t reach.

6) Mark Giordano, Calgary, (99% owned): Congrats to Giordano for having a breakout Norris Trophy winning season at age 34, scoring 74 PTS, crushing his previous career best. That was actually just the 2^nd time Gio has exceeded 50 PTS in his entire career. He should be a very good defenseman again; I’m just not buying him at that price point. His average draft position of 69 is not unreasonable. He’s going about 30 spots later than you’d expect for a 70-point defenseman. My projection is 52 PTS. Gio qualified for my bust list more for the expected PTS decline than for a bad ADP.

7) TJ Oshie, Washington, (80% owned): I’ve been riding the T.J Oshie bust train for a few years now, believing that his fantasy ownership has been too high relative to his production. Last year he got off to a fast start, and I was encouraging everyone to sell high on their Oshie stock. TJ missed 13 games due to injury and still finished with the 2^nd highest scoring pace of his career (with 64 PTS per 82 GP). I’m expecting that to come down in 2019. He had surgery to repair a broken collarbone in the offseason and is 32-years-old. We’ll see if he keeps up his hit rate. His ADP is 124.

8) Elias Lindholm, Calgary, (93% owned): I’ve got no problem owning Lindholm so long as he’s playing with Monahan and Gaudreau, but that’s the rub. His value drops significantly if he ever gets moved to the 2^nd line (which many in the analytics community were calling for last season). At an average draft position of 84, there are safer picks available at that stage of your draft. The gamble could pay off if he plays the whole year in the same role as last season, I’m just not paying a premium with that uncertainty.

9) Jeff Skinner, (88% owned): Jeff Skinner is on my bust list for the same reason that Victor Olofsson is on my sleeper list, and that has everything to do with who is playing with Jack Eichel (hint: it’s not currently Jeff Skinner). There is a significant drop off from the first to second lines, and I don’t want to own Skinner if he’s playing with Marcus Johansson. That being said, there’s a strong chance that Skinner will end up on that top line eventually, at which time his value will get a boost. If Skinner gets off to a slow start, there may be a buy low opportunity in deeper leagues (versus borderline droppable in shallow formats). His ADP is 106.

10) Patric Hornqvist, Chicago, (57% owned): Hornqvist is expected to play on the Penguins 3^rd line, which will significantly limit his 5 on 5 production. He should still pick up PTS standing in front of the net on the power play, but when you combine his even strength deployment with his concussion history, this is a player that I’m only buying as a streaming option in shallower leagues, and not owning at all in deep formats. His ADP is 161, so he’s typically being drafted near the end of standard leagues. Better to use that bench spot to rotate streamers.