Yzerman-Filppula Conspiracy Theory

As a long-time Detroit Red Wings fan, Steve Yzerman is my favourite player in the history of planet Earth. It disturbed me emotionally to see him succeed as the General Manager of a division rival. When he left Tampa to takeover the Red Wings rebuilding process, I was thrilled. That enthusiasm was somewhat diminished after his first summer on the job produced Valtteri Filppula and Patrik Nemeth as the two biggest free agent acquisitions, with Filppula getting a full no-trade clause on a 2-year deal.

I have long been a big proponent of rebuilding teams overpaying aging free agents on 1-year contracts for the purpose of trading for assets at the trade deadline. Had that been the impetus for signing Filppula, it would have made more sense; but the no-trade clause eliminates that possibility, or at least reduces it considerably. Smart fans don't want to see their teams hand out "legacy" contracts to players who won Stanley Cups with the franchise, rewarding past accomplishments without regard for current output. Filppula is 35 years old and scored at a 34-point pace over the previous 2 seasons, signed to be the team's 2nd line center. How does that make any sense?

Now we currently find ourselves one month into the season, and a more Machiavellian motivation for signing Filppula may be unfolding. The Red Wings have 8 pending restricted free agent forwards on their roster, including Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, and Tyler Bertuzzi, all expected to cash in on big contracts this summer. The more points those players score, the more money they are going to command. Mantha and Bertuzzi are off to quality starts playing mostly on a line with Dylan Larkin. Mantha however, has recently been dropped to the 2nd line with Filppula, where Athanasiou has been playing for most of the season. 

The Red Wings top scoring lines now look like this (courtesy of Daily Faceoff).

This unappealing deployment has been terrible for Athanasiou (11 GP, 3 PTS, -11), who is at his most dangerous playing with Larkin. This has me starting to believe that there was a "scorched Earth" strategy in signing Filppula, where he will play the role of "cooler" on the 2nd scoring line, making their future contracts more affordable. Bertuzzi is off to a terrific start with 13 PTS in 13 GP (playing almost exclusively with Larkin), which could put him in line for a $6M - $7M salary next season. Ergo, expect him to eventually do a tour of duty on the "cooler line" with Valtteri. We are likely going to see all the big 3 RFAs rotating on and off the 2nd line to help minimize their total offensive output.

Another side effect of having a deliberately shitty 2nd line center is that your team will suck, increasing the number of red ping pong balls in the draft lottery. The battle for last place has been very competitive this season with some big names at the top of the draft pool. We should have several teams in full tank mode during the second half of the season, and Filppula is an asset for Detroit in this race to the bottom. Now all of a sudden, this contract that made no sense in the summer is starting to look like a win-win. Get a high draft pick, check. Suppress the pending contracts of your RFAs, check.

Brilliant!