The following is a condensed preview of the Washington Capitals chapter of my new book, Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World. If you purchase the book, you will receive a much more in-depth analysis of all these contracts, including year-by-year statistics, a customized “basket of comparables”, and memorable quotes from players, GMs, and coaches. Below is just a tiny sample of what’s in the book, with a few sentences clipped from the summaries.
Entry level contracts not included.
The
Washington Capitals struggled for the first 2 years that Alex Ovechkin spent in
North America, before rattling off 12 playoff appearances in the next 13 years.
Over this span, Alexander the Great only passed the 2nd round only once. The
good news is, that one time that they advanced beyond round two, they also won
the Stanley Cup, slaying the metaphorical dragon in Pittsburgh. Seven of their best contracts in the salary
cap era were on the ice to celebrate that victory.
Alex Ovechkin is arguably the greatest natural goal scorer in NHL history and could have written himself a blank cheque had he ever tested free agency (and may very well if he goes UFA in 2021 at age 35). Over the first 12 years, Ovie led the NHL in goals scored 7 times (543 total goals), won the Hart trophy twice, won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe as playoff MVP.
By year three, Carlson elevated his offensive production to a higher plateau, scoring 55 PTS in 82 GP, and the best was yet to come. Year six saw him climb up to 68 PTS, including 20 more in the playoffs, en route to winning the Stanley Cup.
This might have been pricey in the beginning, when he followed up his 101-point season with 65 PTS, but was a bargain by year five. He remained a consistent producer, topping 70 PTS per 82 GP for the last 9 years. Nicklas also netted 23 PTS in the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs before hoisting the hallowed mug. No matter how you look at it, this investment was a stunning success.
Year one he scored a career high 83 PTS in the regular season, and 32 more in the playoffs to help Washington win the Stanley Cup. This was the Russian who probably should have been awarded the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP. Just that single season makes the whole investment entirely worthwhile, but there have been some worrying trends since. His production wasn’t the only thing to take a nose-dive after winning the Stanley Cup, as Kuznetsov was suspended from international competition for 4 years after a positive cocaine test…
The week before the free agent frenzy was set to begin, Carlson removed his name from the board, agreeing to stay with his Stanley Cup teammates in Washington. Carlson’s best hockey was yet to come, most especially 75 PTS in 69 GP in 2020 as his odometer was rolling over into his dirty 30s. That being said, there are still 6 years remaining and the future is anything but certain.
Year one Holtby won 48 games, lost only 9, while posting a .922 SV% winning the 2016 Vezina trophy (receiving 26 of 30 first place votes from NHL General Managers). He was even better in year two but finished 2nd in Vezina voting to Sergei Bobrovsky. His performance slipped below average during the 2018 regular season, losing the starting job for a stretch to Philipp Grubauer, but Brayden made up for it in the playoffs with 16 wins and a .922 SV% to win the Stanley Cup.
The first 2 years were nothing short of tremendous, scoring 149 PTS in 143 GP, finishing second in Norris Trophy voting both seasons. Green led all NHL defensemen in scoring over the first two seasons of this contract by a wide margin (Dan Boyle was second with 115). Then the injuries started to hit in year three, making the back half of the deal far less impressive (but we won’t issue too many demerits for injuries beyond his control). An abdominal injury cost him most of the 2012 season, which also lines up with Ovechkin’s worst campaign (that may not be a coincidence).
Evgeny made a bet on himself, and immediately showed rapid improvement, scoring 77 PTS in year one (but a disappointing 2 PTS in 12 playoff games as they were eliminated by Pittsburgh). This was a great bridge deal for Washington and produced 136 PTS in 164 GP. The Bird man got substantially more expensive on his next contract, but it paid off with a championship.
For the first couple years, it was starting to look like that might have been a poor investment strategy by Brian McLellan, as the Penguins eliminated Washington from the 2016 and 2017 playoffs on the road to winning back-to-back championships. The Pens were doing just fine without those departing free agents, addition by subtraction. That changed in 2018 when the Caps got over the hump, eliminating Pittsburgh and winning the Stanley Cup, with Niskanen contributing 9 PTS on the run.
Even if it was a minor overpayment, that was rendered moot when Laich quickly elevated to a new level of production, scoring 53 PTS in year one. Brooks sustained that higher level for 3 years, substantially outperforming his pay grade. By the end, the center was underpaid, but made up for it on his next deal.
What the Caps got was a bargain starter who played 121 regular season games with 64 wins 36 loses and a .920 SV%, playing 13 more games in the playoffs where he sported a .944 SV%. His next contract would place him among the highest paid goalies in the league.
This proved to be a very productive investment for the Capitals. The carrot-stick strategy worked. Semin would score 163 PTS in 135 GP (99 PTS per 82 GP), adding 16 more PTS in 21 playoff games. These would be the two highest scoring seasons of his entire NHL career, giving the Caps a dangerous scoring threat on their 2nd line.
The Lithuanian center would set new career highs twice over these 2 years, scoring 57 PTs in year one and 60 PTS in year two. The Capitals managed to trade him to Buffalo at the 2007 trade deadline for a 1st round pick (unfortunately the pick was a bust).
It didn’t take long for Vrana to show a significant improvement, finding success on a line with Oshie and Kuznetsov, scoring 52 PTs in 69 GP (a 62-point pace) during the 2020 season. The Caps have one year remaining at a discounted price, after which he should command north of $5M on his next deal.
Pelly scored 7 goals in the 2018 playoffs with 3 in the final series, including a crucial game-tying goal in game 5. Despite those heroics, Devante was only able to secure a 1-year $1M deal from the Caps after their Cup win and would find himself buried in the AHL. One year after his Stanley Cup heroics, Smith signed in the KHL.
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