One day while flipping through some NHL gambling strategy sites, I stumbled upon an old technique called “zig zagging” which under normal circumstances is only used in the playoffs. The “Zig Zag Theory” is based on the observation that when teams play a series of consecutive games, the loser of the previous match is going to win 55% of the time. Why this phenomenon occurs is anyone’s guess, but it likely has something to do with motivation and losers giving a greater effort in the next contest. If you consider that the better team is more likely to win game 1, then the loser should hypothetically have more like a 45% chance of winning the next game. Normally in regular seasons, teams don’t play enough consecutive games against the same opponent to provide a meaningful number of betting opportunities. This pandemic season is different, as the NHL is squeezing more games into a shorter window with less travel, meaning, there is more zig zagging in 2021 than ever before (and possibly ever again).
Now that the 2021 campaign is 6 weeks old, we have more data with which to build an algorithm or strategy to reflect these unique scheduling parameters. I decided to embark on an investigation into the effectiveness of zig zagging during these unique times, and it was verified to produce profit with the loser of the previous match winning 54% of games. It is less effective when dealing with an extreme underdog, and in the first game of a new string of consecutive meetings. The team who lost when they last played a few weeks ago is not any more likely to win the next time. In the cases of game 1, it’s better to pick the team who has won a majority of games in the season-long series, and if it’s 50-50, take the home team. Also, puck lines -1.5 don’t seem to produce profit when zagging.
When these criteria were applied to the 2021 gambling slate from day 1 to Feb 23, there were 178 bets made, 97 won (54%), each bet was $100. The total amount wagered was $17,800 and the total won was $19,300, producing $1500 in profit. Eureka! The great mystery of how to crack this nut has possibly been solved. You can do more of a pure zig zag if you want to adhere to the originally theory. I applied my own touch to game 1 of each series because the purist approach did not produce a profit for the first month of the season. The games need to have happened relatively recently to be applicable.
If you bet Home/Road moneyline every game, or hit every single underdog +1.5 consistently, you would not have as much money as the zig zag technique. For the first 3 weeks of the season, home teams had a decided advantage from a gambling perspective, as visitors isolated in hotel rooms while their opponents sleep in their own beds. But that flipped, and over the next 3 weeks the road teams fought back, eventually drawing even with homers on the balance sheet. Throughout all that turmoil, the zig zag continued to pay off.
I will continue to monitor the returns on zig zagging in the upcoming weeks, as this season is providing some unique parameters that we may never see again. Perhaps the owners will grow fond of these decreased travel expenses and use similar scheduling formats in future seasons, if revenues fail to recover to past levels. There might be a future for zig zagging beyond 2021 and the playoffs. I’ve been fascinated with the success that it has produced thus far, but it needs to be pointed out though as I publish this on Feb 25, that the results of the zig zag on Feb 23 and 24 were not good, hitting just 3 times in 11 opportunities. It’s unclear yet if that’s an aberration, or the start of a new trend.
Consider yourself warned.
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