Welcome to my Week 3 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. My minimum bet is $100, but I’ll bet up to $1,000 on my favorite teams like the Coyotes. Click here to see my Week 2 Betting Report.
For the 3rd straight week, my gambling experiment produced a significant profit (+$2,981), once again driven by the Arizona Coyotes and Florida Panthers. Those two teams have accounted for over 3/4 of my profit through October 31st. It has been the Coyotes futility that makes them so profitable, whereas the Panthers are at the other end of the spectrum, starting the season 8-1 (My entire stake on their games was on Panthers to win/cover, and their one loss to Boston I successfully hit +1.5 goals). I’m also up $400 on Panthers over/under, with the unders producing a better return thanks to the surprisingly outstanding play of Bobrovsky.
My Week 3 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
The balance of power between home and road teams has been normalizing after a hot start for the hosts, though the Calgary Flames get a disproportionate amount of the credit for that shift in the market place. We’ve seen the Flames play well on the road in the past, so there is historical data to support the sustainability of that success. I ran into trouble over-analyzing home-road market trends in the pandemic shortened 2021 season, thinking I should bet more on one or the other based on a trend, when in reality a few good teams just had winning road trips. Then the good teams go home and the market shifts back.
The Flames are one of my big surprise teams of the year (next to Buffalo), as my expectations were very low after dispatching Giordano. I started the schedule mostly betting Calgary to lose, but when they beat Washington on the road, that opened my eyes. I’ve bet them every game since, and they won all 4. Though I’ve blown some money on Calgary unders (because they are playing tight defense), not anticipating their offensive outbursts. Easily my worst over/under team of the season thus far has been Montreal, with most of that coming from incorrectly betting over. Same with Ottawa. These were both teams that I had been expecting to be involved in high scoring games, but that hasn’t materialized.
This is my rookie venture into betting over/under, and after betting heavy on the overs opening week, my money started slowly shifting to the unders which was producing a better rate of return. By week 3, I was hammering unders and it paid off. To be more specific, most of my profit came from Dallas and Columbus. Next to “Coyote opponents -1.5 goals”, the unders were my best bet of Week 3, because of max wagers on Dallas unders. The overs had a brutal week. That does not necessarily mean that the profitability of betting the under will continue at this rate. Oddsmakers can adjust the lines accordingly if scoring is down. Bookies can adjust to trends as fast as bettors. My method early in my over/under is looking at the average total goals per game of each team, looking at the goalies, looking at the line, and going with my gut. It’s not very scientific, but my data set is still in its infancy.
It would be fascinating to see what the total sum
wagered across Sportsbooks on over versus under has been this season. Perhaps
they skew the lines towards the unders because the public disproportionately
bets overs because it’s more fun to cheer for goals than saves.
My Team of the Week: Arizona Coyotes, +$1,638
My “big short” of the Arizona Coyotes has been plowing ahead full throttle, with my bets shifting exclusively to opponent puckline -1.5 goals. The Coyotes played 4 games against upper-echelon teams, and the moneylines were nerfed by the oddsmakers. The first 3 games were puckline winners, but they managed to keep the Carolina Hurricanes to within 1 goal on Sunday, costing me $1,000. Fortunately, I was still able to come out ahead $1,638 betting on their games for the week.
The Arizona opponent lines were generous over the first 2 weeks, but the oddsmakers are catching on. I started doing $500 moneyline and $500 puckline vs the Coyotes, but for week 3 was 100% puckline.
RED FLAG! Coyote goaltender Karel Vejmelka posted back-to-back outstanding
performances, logging a .957 SV% over his last 2 starts. The Caps barely
squeeked out a 2-0 victory, while the Hurricanes only won 2-1. Those are two
really good teams. This warrants a warning for those of you smashing those
pucklines. A goaltender heating up is generally the primary indicator that the
profitability of a “big short” position is about to shift. See Vancouver and
Ottawa last season.
My Worst Team of the Week: Detroit Red Wings, -$463
The Wings cost me more money than any other team this week, and that’s entirely due to their road win in Washington on Wednesday. I laid $500 on the Caps ML to win, but the scrappy Wings pulled off an upset victory. I won $100 on Detroit +1.5 goals over Toronto on Saturday, and correctly picked Florida to defeat them on Friday. I lost $200 betting the over in those Wsh-Fla games, where an empty net goal in either would have produced a push, but did nail the over against the Leafs. On the season, Detroit has been slightly better at finishing under.
The Montreal Canadiens were my 2nd worst
team of the week, and as of October 31st have been my worst
over/under team on the season by a wide margin. They have an equal number of
unders and overs, with me whiffing on both sides (missing 8 times in 10 GP).
My 3 Best Bets of Week
3: Best Market Bets of Week 3:
2) Under: +$1,270 (Dallas +$801) 2) Calgary to win ML+PL: +$647
3) Florida to win (ML+PL): +$1,067 3) Pittsburgh opponents ML+PL: +$559
My 3 Worst Bets of Week
3: Worst Market Bets of Week 3:
2) Detroit to lose ML: -$443 2) Calgary opponents ML+PL: -$800
3) Anaheim Unders: -$400 3) Road favorites -1.5 goals: -$780
My Best Teams To Bet On
In Week 3: (over/under not included)
1) Florida Panthers, (+$1,232)
2) Tampa Bay Lightning, (+$583)
3) Washington Capitals, (+$370)
*Lost $500 on Washington to beat Detroit, but won
that money back on the Arizona game 2 nights later. Only turned a profit on
Tampa because they played Arizona.
My Worst Teams To Bet
On In Week 3: (over/under not included)
1) Pittsburgh Penguins, (-$350)
2) San Jose Sharks, (-$350)
3) Dallas Stars, (-$200)
*I couldn't pick the winner of Dallas games, but did well on the unders.
My Best Teams To Bet
Against In Week 3: (over/under not included)
1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,472)
2) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$918)
3) Toronto Maple Leafs, (+$535)
My Worst Teams To Bet
Against In Week 3: (over/under not included)
1) Detroit Red Wings, (-$443)
2) Buffalo Sabres, (-$250)
3) New Jersey Devils, (-$167)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week
my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just
what happened this week.
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