Welcome to my Week 11 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 10 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $11,972
What I’m defining as “Week 11” actually refers to a 2-week period that overlapped Christmas and New Years. Due to the rapid spread of Omicron, several games were postponed. Even those teams who still played games were missing players who tested positive. The act of betting on hockey games has suddenly become more about playing doctor and knowing who is scratched and who is not. December 2021 saw an unprecedented number of scratches, worse than any point in the previous season. This is a very unique sample that may not correlate strongly to the past or future.
Week 10, the medical volatility hurt me, when I had already laid big money on teams who had last minute scratches, teams favored to win who were upset. That changed from Dec 20th to Jan 1st. My prolonged “Week 11” was among my best weeks of the season, banking $3,716, with all of the profit coming from 2 sources; favorites (moneyline + puckline) and overs. $2,438 came from favorites on the moneyline, $930 from the puckline -1.5 goals, and $844 from overs. My own success reflects what was happening on the market as a whole, as favorites (both ML & PL) and overs were big winners overall. Favorites -1.5 goals has been tracking positively for most of the season (likely due to an increase in empty net goals) and hasn’t just boomed recently amid this scoring bump.
Teams playing the 2nd game of a "back-to-back" went 1-5 tonight. That's a big reason why my picks went 7-0. (I bet Panthers to win because Lagace was starting for Tampa). #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) December 31, 2021
Everything I touched was turning into gold, at least
until Sunday when my crystal ball went cold. Still, it was my 2nd best
week of the season and the Arizona Coyotes barely factored into the equation,
only playing a single game during this span (Arizona still accounts for 80% of
my total season profit). This was one of those weeks when it would have been
ideal to wager with real money. Except that this is a macroeconomic experiment
with parameters designed to track market trends, learning lessons from my own
successes and failures. My problem is, I dislike losing more than I enjoy
winning. Still, it would be interesting to see my rate of return if I only
wagered on games where I was willing to bet real money.
My Week 11 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
As discussed in my previous report, I’ve been using a new system for betting over/under. It has produced a small profit thus far, though I’ve called a few audibles when goalies test positive for Covid. Since the overs have been trending, the algorithm has been recommending that option more often than not, even when it doesn’t know of starting goalie downgrades. The Covid outbreak would seem to be benefiting the overs, and goaltending has been a contributing factor. The algorithm was only recommending unders in 1/3 of games, but even that was detrimentally excessive. There was just too much scoring.
I still managed to finish up $113 betting O/U for week
11, but had I instead bet $100 on every over, I would have won $1,281. This
does not seem to be explainable by simple variance, as the market has been
trending in this direction for weeks. Goal scoring is up, and Covid is likely a
contributing factor. There were 5.9 goals per game in November when the unders
were surging, and there were 6.3 goals per game in December when the overs struck
back. Does this mean you should be aggressively betting overs going forward? Be
aware that the sportsbooks are also aware of what’s going on, and the lines
have been creeping higher to compensate.
If you bet $100 on every NHL "over" since Dec 20, you are up $1,281. If you bet $100 on every favorite -1.5 goals during that same span, you're up $1,140. If you bet a $100 parlay on every favorite -1.5 goals with every "over", you won $2,396. #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) January 3, 2022
My Team of the Week: Tampa Bay Lightning, +$1,215
I’ve been catching Lightning in a bottle lately. It started Dec 21st when I bet them +1.5 goals against Vegas. Covid did not have a greater impact on any one team than it did on Tampa, when both goaltenders went into quarantine shortly after Christmas. They next faced Montreal, who also had a big Covid list, also in goal. I picked Tampa to win, with Brayden Point back in the line-up. Their next opponent was Florida, and my money was on the Panthers given Maxime Lagace was starting for Tampa (Panthers blew them out). Then they faced the Rangers the next night, and my money was on New York. All winning bets.
The next component of my Tampa run was the overs. I
bet the over in all 4 games, and 3 of them hit (an Igor Shesterkin shutout
blocked the sweep). I even laid down double on the Montreal game, with 4
goalies in Covid protocol. That’s one lesson I’m learning in this pandemic, bet
the over when goalies test positive. When Sam Montembault is facing Maxime
Lagace, the sportsbooks almost need to stop accepting bets on the over for that
game. Coincidently, my 2nd best team of the week was Montreal,
partially due to the money won when they played Tampa.
So did the sportsbooks stop accepting bets on the Tampa-Montreal over when Lagace vs Montembeault became the probable starters? #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) December 29, 2021
👇 Easy money 💰 https://t.co/erIuAlgeiT
My Worst Team of the Week: Detroit Red Wings, -$481
My extended week was so extraordinarily successful that by Saturday night I was considering listing my worst team of the week as “none”. Heading into Sunday’s games, Philly was the leader at -$265, followed closely by the Blues who upset Minnesota in the Winter Classic on Saturday. But a new clear winner emerged when I wagered $250 on Detroit +1.5 goals at home vs the Boston Bruins, who were on the 2nd leg of a back-to-back. Cleary having played the previous night did not slow down Boston, who blew the Wings out 5-1. I bet the under, and it went over.
The Red Wings only played 2 games over this 14-day span. While I did correctly pick Washington to win Detroit's previous tilt, I made a large bet on the over, and it went under. The Red Wings are currently 31st in my power rankings after finishing 31st last season. No franchise cost me more money in the calendar year of 2021 than my favorite team.
It should be noted that I lost $600 betting against the
New Jersey Devils this week, as they started to pull out of their nosedive,
winning all 3 of their games. The only reason that they were not my “worst team
of the week” was because I nailed all my over bets. Their games averaged 8.3
goals.
2) Montreal to lose ML+PL: +$958 2) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,140
3) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$930 3) Favorites moneyline: +$698
2) New Jersey to lose ML: -$600 2) Underdog Moneyline: -$1,578
3) St. Louis to lose ML: -$350 3) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$978
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 11: (over/under not
included)
1) Carolina Hurricanes, (+$713)
2) Calgary Flames, (+$702)
3) Florida Panthers, (+$683)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
11: (over/under not included)
1) Detroit Red Wings, (-$250)
2) Minnesota Wild, (-$250)
3) Edmonton Oilers, (-$200)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
11: (over/under not included)
1) Montreal Canadiens, (+$958)
2) Seattle Kraken, (+$625)
3) Tampa Bay Lightning, (+$591)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
11: (over/under not included)
1) New Jersey Devils, (-$600)
2) St. Louis Blues, (-$350)
3) Winnipeg Jets, (-$250)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week
my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just
what happened this week.
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