Welcome to my Week 19 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 18 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $18,169
As we march towards the 4th quarter of the NHL season, the goal scoring bonanza continues. After enduring one of my worst weeks of this campaign to close the month of February, I bounced back strong thanks to my over/under algorithm, which recommended a 76% stake in overs. I won $1,620 this week, with 92% of that coming from overs. I shared with you how to calculate the algorithm on your own a few weeks ago, and if you’ve been using it, then you’re sharing in my success. My greatest concern is that I’ll get hit with devastating losses if a leaguewide trend of improved defensive play emerges, since all this profit is coming entirely from one side.
Overs aren’t the only recent trend plowing forward, as an underdog revolution appears to be gaining momentum. Sportsbooks continue to push the betting lines further and further towards the heavy favorites, which is helping drive up the profitability of underdogs (that has also been observed in past seasons). This week alone, Toronto -425 vs Buffalo, Colorado -380 vs Arizona, and Calgary -400 vs Montreal were all losses. For those of you who may not know, a -400 betting line implies an 80% probability of victory. There is an argument to be made that no team should ever be an 80% favorite in this league. 7 teams have been favored by at least -400 this season, and 4 (57%) have won the game.
The probability of both Montreal beating Calgary (-400) and Arizona beating Colorado (-380) tonight was 6% (based on #NHLBetting lines). When teams are favored by at least -300 on the moneyline, the rate of return is low (especially pucklines). The risk isn't worth the reward. pic.twitter.com/DS4G5vwrXK
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) March 4, 2022
One of the teams helping to drive the underdog trend this
week was the Buffalo Sabres. Not only did they beat Toronto on Tuesday, but
they defeated the Minnesota Wild on Friday. My money was on Buffalo +1.5 goals
both games. They had been on a 6-game losing streak heading into the week, so
those bets were not made because I “liked” the Sabres. In the Toronto game, I
simply wasn’t willing to pay -425 for a Leafs win, regardless of opponent. But
because I force myself to make a selection on every game, I defaulted to
underdog +1.5 goals on the puckline, and bet my minimum. Once they beat
Toronto, it gave me more confidence and the Wild were on a back-to-back. I
wasn’t willing to pay -190 for a road favorite on a back-to-back. Had I been
using real money, I would not have made any wagers on those 2 games. So, I
can’t exactly call myself a genius for making those picks.
When I bet the Buffalo Sabres +1.5 goals versus Toronto tonight, I wrote in my notes "the Leafs shouldn't be -425 favorites against anyone given how they've been playing lately". ✅ #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) March 3, 2022
Though I was a net loser on the game because the over fell 1 goal short. ☹️
My Week 19 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
My aforementioned over/under algorithm continued posting strong gains, but that’s entirely due to a sustained increase in goal scoring. With some help from the Toronto Maple Leafs, this was the 2nd highest scoring week of the NHL season. All of my over/under lines were recorded from Draft Kings, who seemed to be offering low totals considering the scoring boom in the 2nd half of the season. If you are recording lines form a different source, you may have observed different results.
If you bet $100 on every under this week, you lost -$1,655. That was the worst performing category, but
not far behind were favorites -1.5 goals on the puckline, which cost you -$1,394 if you bet $100 on each of them. There was a
boom in puckline profitability -1.5 goals earlier in the season, but the
sportsbooks have been offering lower and lower payouts on the heavy favorites. If you bet the Avalanche
-1.5 goals every game for the last 5 weeks, you’re losing money. It's getting increasingly difficult to get a fair line on the league's best teams.
My Team of the Week: Columbus Blue Jackets, +$975
The Columbus Blue Jacket continue to close the gap on the Arizona Coyotes for the top spot in my season-long power rankings. I bet the correct outcome in every Blue Jackets game this week, including going 3-0 on the overs. Heading into the season, I never would have predicted having this much success betting Columbus games. I’m still trying to figure out exactly how this is happening, whether it be a mathematical explanation or extra-sensory-perception. I’m locked in on the BJs.
Honorable mention to the Florida Panthers, who have been battling with Columbus for second place in my power rankings for the past 3 weeks. Make no mistake, Florida is a vastly superior team to Columbus, but everyone knows that, so it’s hard to get a fair price on their wins. Whereas the betting lines tend to discount the likelihood of Columbus winning. It’s not that I’m betting Columbus to win every game, but there tends to be a big prize when done correctly.
My Worst Team of the Week: Arizona Coyotes, -$1,367
The Arizona Coyotes only played 2 games this week, but won them both. That was all they needed to capture last place, with most of the damage being done in their upset victory against Colorado when I had $500 on the moneyline and $500 on the puckline. I was fully aware that the Yotes have played the Avs tough all season because it’s been costing me considerable money. These 2 teams have now played 4 games that resulted in a combined -$2,066 of losses. Did that stop me from going “all in” one more time? Nope. Fortunately for me, these 2 teams don’t play again.
The Montreal Canadiens had won 5 games in a row when I
bet them to beat the Jets, and Winnipeg pumped them 8-4. The Habs played the
red-hot Flames 2 days later and I placed a large wager on the Calgary
moneyline. Wrong move. That wasn’t enough to discourage me from betting
Edmonton to beat them 2 days later, but my guard was up, limiting my bet size. I’m
placing a red flag on this team moving forward. Montreal has dropped from #4 to
#23 in my power rankings in 3 weeks. Thanks Marty…
Note to self: After losing 10 games in a row, the Montreal Canadiens have now won 7 of their last 8. 🤨 #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) March 6, 2022
2) Home moneyline: +$1,061 2) Underdogs moneyline: +$756
3) Florida to win ML+PL: +$669 3) Toronto to lose ML+PL: +$653
2) Arizona to lose ML+PL: -$1,250 2) Favorites -1.5 goals: -$1,394
3) Road moneyline: -$897 3) Favorites moneyline: -$618
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 19: (over/under not
included)
1) Florida Panthers, (+$669)
2) New York Rangers, (+$651)
3) Anaheim Mighty Ducks, (+$527)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
19: (over/under not included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (-$1,250)
2) Edmonton Oilers, (-$594)
3) Calgary Flames, (-$461)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
19: (over/under not included)
1) San Jose Sharks, (+$590)
2) Ottawa Senators, (+$479)
3) St. Louis Blues, (+$453)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
19: (over/under not included)
1) Arizona Coyotes, (-$1,250)
2) Montreal Canadiens, (-$750)
3) Seattle Kraken, (-$484)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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