Welcome to my Week 21 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 20 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $20,233
This was the first week of the fourth quarter of the NHL season. Yesterday I posted my Third Quarter Betting Report, with all the market trends and team-by-team analysis that can help you finish the season strong. To read more, click here. Although there has been so much action leading up to the trade deadline, that I’ll probably need to completely recalibrate how good each team will be in the final quarter of the schedule. I’m expecting the gap between underdogs and favorites will grow a little wider, and I’ll be laying big money on Seattle opponents.
I started my 4th quarter with a small profit, thanks to strong results betting road moneylines and the Columbus Blue Jackets, who officially overtook Arizona for the #1 spot in my gambling Power Rankings this week. This will be my first report since before the All-Star break that I won’t be bragging about the performance of my over/under algorithm, as it finally posted a losing week (-$674). This was the lowest scoring week since mid-January, while the totals being offered by Draft Kings inched higher.
Sunday’s games had a unique scheduling composition featuring all 6 games where one team was playing on a back-to-back. I went in heavy against the teams with short rest, and would have had a good day if not for Alexandar Georgiev’s 44-save shutout against Carolina and Dallas upsetting the Capitals in Washington, but the Winnipeg Jets, San Jose Sharks, Buffalo Sabres, and Philadelphia Flyers all delivered.
The longer the season goes on, I’ve been more aggressive betting against teams on back-to-backs under the assumption that Covid could possibly reduce future athletic output in some of the people who catch it, even athletes (there was supporting evidence in the first half data). But it does also seem like the sportsbooks have been shifting lines further and further away from teams with a rest deficit. I’m often repeating in my game-by-game notes “this line makes no sense if it weren’t a back-to-back”.
It was somewhat of a magic carpet ride for me this week, winning $1,200 on Tuesday but losing -$1,400 on Thursday. Shit happens. On Tuesday, Vancouver won me the most money beating New Jersey, then lost me the most money on Thursday against Detroit. Alex Nedeljkovic had been terrible for the last 30 days, then decides to post a 43-save shutout against the otherwise hot Canucks. Then the Georgiev shutout on Sunday. That’s hockey betting.
This was the final week before the trade deadline, so
you never want to be invested in a team that might sit assets to ensure they
aren’t injured before being dealt. I was in a Las Vegas casino in 2019 when
Gord Miller Tweeted that Ottawa’s 3 leading scorers were not on the ice for
warm-ups. I ran down to the sportsbook (technically it was more of a jog) and
put a large wager on New Jersey -1.5 goals which paid for my hotel room. The
line had not changed at all from where it was in the morning. The casino was
not reacting to this information in real-time.
My Week 21 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
Overs and unders were nearly even overall for the week, with both losing money if you bet them every game. I lost more money incorrectly betting unders, even though scoring decreased and unders were actually a slightly better bet. Ergo, the algorithm’s results would have improved by recommending more unders, yet was really bad at picking unders. Hopefully that’s just variance. I’ll be fascinated to see how the trade deadline affects over/under, assuming the gap between favorites and underdogs just grew.
Road moneyline was my best category of the week, but no one team deserves a disproportionate share of the credit (Winnipeg’s 6-4 win vs Chicago on Sunday was the largest contributor). Road teams won 49% of the games in week 21, which was their best performance in a few weeks. For the 4th quarter, I’ll be much more focused on picking favorites versus underdogs than betting home and road splits.
There was a recovery in favorites -1.5 goals this week, after trending in a negative direction post-All-Star break. I had mostly been avoiding this category in non-Panthers games, but while compiling my third quarter betting report, noticed that the Flames had been an outstanding team -1.5 goals on the puckline. I laid $500 on that outcome versus Buffalo on Friday, and the Sabres won 1-0. So, the category was good overall, but I produced a 0% return when betting it. Pucklines -1.5 could have a strong 4th quarter if the gap between good and bad teams does widen.
My Team of the Week: Columbus Blue Jackets, +$918
It’s been looking lately like neither Arizona or Montreal is willing to do what it takes to get Shane Wright, leaving the door open for teams like Ottawa, Seattle, and Philadelphia to possibly get the first overall pick. What I really need in the 4th quarter is a Tank-A-Thon that I can financially embrace as a safe investment. I’m hoping Ottawa might be contender, going 1-3 before the deadline as my 2nd best team of the week. Though I'm thinking that Seattle might win Tank-A-Palooza.
My Worst Team of the Week: Carolina Hurricanes, -$864
Betting Carolina to win on the moneyline was among my best bets in the 3rd quarter, so it’s perfectly logical that I’d have a rough ride if they went 0-3 any given week. A pair of home losses against Washington and New York did most of the damage, but so too did incorrect over/under wagers. I won’t let a fluke Alexandar Georgiev 44-save shutout deter me from laying money on the Hurricanes going forward. My faith remains strong.
It’s not coincidence that the Rangers were my 2nd worst team of the week. In addition to their win against Carolina, their loss to the New York Islanders also chipped in. My over/under algorithm struggled on the Rangers this week, pumping too many overs when their unders went 3-1.
2) Columbus to win ML: +$918 2) Vancouver to lose ML+PL: +$544
3) Chicago to lose ML: +$786 3) New Jersey to lose ML+PL: +$482
2) Vegas to lose ML: -$566 2) New Jersey to win ML+PL: -$600
3) Montreal to win ML: -$429 3) Edmonton to lose ML+PL: -$600
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 21: (over/under not
included)
1) Columbus Blue Jackets, (+$918)
2) Colorado Avalanche, (+$463)
3) Buffalo Sabres, (+$375)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
21: (over/under not included)
1) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$659)
2) Montreal Canadiens, (-$429)
3) Calgary Flames, (-$344)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
21: (over/under not included)
1) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$786)
2) New Jersey Devils, (+$550)
3) Ottawa Senators, (+$514)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
21: (over/under not included)
1) Vegas Golden Knights, (-$566)
2) Buffalo Sabres, (-$500)
3) New York Rangers, (-$500)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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