Welcome to my Week 4 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 3 Betting Report.
I'm excited to announce the release of my new hockey betting book. It's a comprehensive
commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by
category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for
bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic,
post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The
market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's
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My Season Profit: $3,083
The art of differentiating an emerging trend from a random confluence of variance can be a tricky business. Both things can often camouflage as the other. Last week’s report was a celebration of underdogs, and the revolution continued into week four. We’re now going on 3 weeks of underdogs returning strong gains, although this week it was more moneyline specific. I’m openly skeptical about the long-term sustainability of this trend (especially as oddsmakers move to adjust lines), but rode it to my best week yet this season.
Dogs -1.5 had strong returns in the previous 2 weeks, but were a small net loser in week 4 (for me too). Some that hit this week: LA +250, Arizona +600, Buffalo +260, Nashville +370, Seattle +370, Boston +270, Islanders +260, Detroit +250, Detroit +270, Dallas +310, and Toronto +290. Despite my small loss on Dogs -1.5, those underdog moneylines more than made up the difference. My longshot bets are often 2/3 or 3/4 moneyline, with a small amount -1.5 goals, such that I still come out ahead if they only win by 1 goal. Home dogs did turn a profit -1.5 tucks.
The two underdogs that paid me off the most were Seattle and Arizona. It wasn’t that I really like Seattle, it just felt like there was value on their lines +185 against Minnesota and +180 against the struggling Penguins. I actually bet Coyotes to win all their games this week, hitting on Florida +225 and Washington +235. The thing with betting longshots, you don’t need to hit as many to turn a profit. Whereas betting -400 favorites, you need to win at least 4 out of 5 to stay out of the red.
If we’re looking for possible explanations for this emerging trend, there was a few good teams struggling at the same time. Calgary and Pittsburgh each went 0-3 when favored, with the Flames being -215, -170, and -165. I was shorting the Penguins, but not the Flames. The Panthers dropped a game as a -265 favorite and another at -165. The Blues, Capitals, Rangers, and Oilers all lost a pair of games when favored. As far as the bigger picture question “is this trend sustainable”, keep an eye on whether those teams specifically continue to flounder.
Underdogs were a big driver for me this week, but it actually extended beyond that to all road moneylines, as road teams won 57% of this week’s games (their first of the season winning more than half). Yes, home teams are much more likely to be favored (66% of all games this season), so there’s a strong correlation between my underdog success and road profitability. I had a strong return on road favorites too, but only bet 4 of them going 3 for 4. That category itself was a net loser.
My Week 4 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
There has been a back-and-forth battle between overs and unders early in this young season, and overs appear to have regained the upper-hand. This was the highest scoring week of the season to date with overs going 26-20-3. Most of the public money seems to be on the unders lately, as the totals/payouts have been moving in that direction. Betting $100 on every over, you would have made $321 on the opening line, but $434 on the closing line.
I posted a small gain on over/under wagers, but my rate of return was better than the market rate on both overs and unders. Washington Capitals unders were officially the best over/under wager of the week, going 4-0. The Caps are currently my best over/under team, whether betting over or under (but more so from unders). My algorithm doesn’t deserve all the credit, as a big part of my gains were in week 2 before it was officially put into use. The team has just been predictable, which is by no means guaranteed to continue.
If you’d like to know more about my over/under
algorithm and its success last season, click here.
My Team of the Week: Washington Capitals, +$784
Saturday night the Washington Capitals moved into top spot in my betting Power Rankings, most of my success coming from betting Caps to lose along with unders. I don’t think too many people bet Arizona to win on the road in Washington, but I did. I had $100 on the moneyline +235 and even put $50 on the puckline -1.5 goals at +600. I was one empty net goal away from hitting the jackpot on that game, but still pulled out with a profit. That’s been my strategy with the longshots, most of my wager on the moneyline, but a little something extra -1.5 goals. Caps unders went 4 for 4, and I went 4 for 4 betting them.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been locked in a
nosedive, and I’ve been a big beneficiary. The Pens can be a very public team,
so it can be hard to get value on their lines if you’re betting them to win.
When they become extra profitable is when they struggle, which they are right
now. They were my #1 most profitable team to bet against this past week and
currently rank 3rd in my Power Rankings after finishing near the
bottom last season.
My Worst Team of the Week: Toronto Maple Leafs, -$695
The Toronto Maple Leafs appear to have recovered from their disastrous west coast road trip, going 3-0 in the last 7 days. I was reluctant to jump on board the bandwagon right away and it cost me a little money. It did come at a price, losing their #1 goalie Ilya Samsonov to injury in Saturday’s victory over Boston. When the opportunity to bet on Carolina to beat Erik Kallgren and his tired teammates on Sunday, it felt like easy money. Kallgren stopped 29 of 30 for a 3-1 victory. He hasn’t earned my confidence just yet, but beating Vegas on Tuesday would be a step in the right direction. Matt Murray is allegedly ahead of schedule, but might suck.
I can’t be the only one who incurred a big loss betting the Calgary Flames to win this week, starting with an upset at the hands of Seattle (as a +185 underdog), followed by a 4-1 loss against a struggling Nashville team. While I was riding several dogs this week, those two in particular did not interest me, expecting Calgary to crush them on home ice. So when New Jersey came to town 2 days later, my money was on the Devils. If Calgary had won that game, they would have been my worst team of the week.
The one team that let me down the most on this longshot revolution in the last 7 days was Montreal. Their moneylines were +205, +185, +180 and lost all 3 games. But I guess all those bets were made with house money after crushing Habs +250 ML and +550 PL against St. Louis last week.
(all wagers) ($100 wagers)
2) Underdogs moneyline: +$1,638 2) Road moneyline: +$1,184
3) Over: +$409 3) Home underdogs -1.5 goals: +$480
2) Road underdogs -1.5 goals: -$390 2) Favorites -1.5 goals: -$1,303
3) Under: -$279 3) Under: -$742
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
2) Seattle Kraken: +$590 2) Seattle Kraken: +$943
3) Arizona Coyotes: +$560 3) Arizona Coyotes: +$840
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Montreal Canadiens, -$450
3) New York Rangers, -$375
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Detroit Red Wings, -$375
3) Carolina Hurricanes, -$300
2) Buffalo over, +$358
3) Anaheim over, +$341
4) Dallas over, +$301
5) San Jose over, +$261
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