My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
Enjoy!
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1. Scott
Niedermayer
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2005-08-04 |
Age July 1st: |
31 |
|
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
56 |
|
Total Money: |
$27M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
34 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$6.75M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
47.8 |
291 |
216 |
618 |
|
Per 82 GP |
12.0 |
82 |
61 |
174 |
26.2 |
“Scott Niedermayer is one of the top
defensemen in the game today whose skating, puck-moving ability and leadership
qualities make him a great addition to our team”
When Scotty
f**king Niedermayer emerged from the 2005 lockout as an unrestricted free
agent, Lou Lamoriello made every effort to retain his future Hall of Fame
defenseman. Maybe what he should have done was add his brother
Rob instead, then use that as bait to lure Scott back. That was the strategy
deployed by Brian Burke, who landed the big fish after Lou Lamoriello had
reportedly offered a more lucrative deal. Chris Pronger had signed a similar
contract in Edmonton one day earlier, and the two would become teammates one
year later.
The words
Anaheim Mighty Ducks do not get engraved on the Stanley Cup without
Scotty, the eventual playoff MVP. It’s very difficult to win the Cup in
free agency, but this was one example. The contract did take a downturn after
winning the championship, which can be forgiven considering he very nearly
retired, sitting out until December the following season. Regardless of how he
performed after the championship, the investment paid the ultimate dividend.
Despite coming close to retirement following the Cup, Scotty still returned for
one more year following this deal.
2- Adam
Banks: Won a district Pee Wee hockey
championship
2. Corey Perry
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2008-07-01 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
|
Term: |
5 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
26 |
|
Total Money: |
$26.6M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
24 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$5.3M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
36.5 |
366 |
342 |
1248 |
|
Per 82 GP |
7.3 |
82 |
77 |
280 |
20.6 |
"I really wanted to stay in Anaheim, it's a great place to
play hockey"
Both Corey
Perry and Ryan Getzlaf were due to have their entry level contracts expire in July
2008, but Getzlaf had agreed to an extension back in November. Perry had not
yet reached his ceiling, scoring 54 PTS that season, going unsigned until July
1st as a restricted free agent. Brian Burke would eventually agree to
give Corey the same terms as Ryan, despite one being a center who had just
scored 82 PTS. In retrospect Perry should never have been paid the same as
Getzlaf, but both would prove to be bargains nonetheless.
This deal
ranked above its twin because Perry was voted league MVP in 2011 after a
50-goal season with 98 PTS. Anytime you can get a Hart Trophy winner, that’s a
worthy investment, even if he stole the award from Daniel Sedin. The stat line
is strong with 366 GP, 342 PTS, 1248 shots, averaging over 20 min per game of
ice time. Perry’s next contract can be found on the Anaheim Mighty Ducks
worst contracts list which was eventually bought out.
3. Ryan
Getzlaf
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2007-11-20 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
|
Term: |
5 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
26 |
|
Total Money: |
$26.6M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
30 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$5.3M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
36.5 |
340 |
342 |
777 |
|
Per 82 GP |
7.3 |
82 |
82 |
187 |
21.1 |
“This is a place that I want to play. I love being here.”
Ryan Getzlaf
scored 58 PTS in 2007, adding 17 more in the playoffs on the way to winning the
Stanley Cup. The center inked this 5-year extension
in November the following season right as he was in the process of breaking out
to the next level offensively. He finished that season with 82 PTS, and
unquestionably would have been more expensive had Burke waited until July like
with Perry.
If you did not
count the Hart trophy, Getzlaf would have ranked more valuable than Perry. The
big center scored 342 PTS in 340 GP, also adding 777 shots, 772 hits, and 2635
face off wins. That’s a nice haul for that money and one of the most physically
dominant centers in the NHL. Two of these seasons were limited by injuries, but
he was still fantastic on a per game basis (82 PTS per 82 GP).
Ryan became
captain of the Mighty Ducks when Neidermayer retired in 2010. The
dynamic duo of Perry-Getzlaf would agree to similar contracts when these were
finished, but the value disparity between them grew larger, as Ryan remained
dominant longer.
4. Teemu
Selanne
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2006-06-13 |
Age July 1st: |
35 |
|
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
21 |
|
Total Money: |
$3.75M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
15 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$3.75M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
7.0 |
82 |
94 |
257 |
|
Per 82 GP |
7.0 |
82 |
94 |
257 |
17.7 |
"This is a player who wanted to stay. He made some
concessions financially to do that and we're grateful"
It’s hard to
find historical comparables of players over the age of 30 who scored anywhere
near 90 PTS before becoming a free agent. The price of retaining Teemu Selanne
that summer should have been much more expensive, but at this stage of his
career, Teemu really loved living in the OC and it’s unclear if he had any
interest in listening to offers from other teams.
Selanne signed
a one-year contract for 79 cents on the dollar, and would go on to score 109
PTS (including playoffs) as they won the Stanley Cup. They needed this guy to
climb that mountain. Teemu played for 9
years after the 2005 lockout and 7 of them were on 1-year deals, most of those
at below market price. At a certain point, Mighty Ducks management had
to realize they were getting him back every year regardless of how much they
offered.
5. John Gibson
|
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
G |
|
|
Date: |
2015-09-21 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
9 |
|
Total Money: |
$6.9M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.913 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$2.3M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
2.5 |
170 |
82 |
2.50 |
0.922 |
“Obviously, he had to offer it and I had
to accept it. I think it shows he wants me to be here for a long time and I
want to be here for a while and help the team win.”
Gibson had
only accumulated 26 GP of NHL experience when he signed this extension,
agreeing to the same terms as Robin Lehner one year earlier in Ottawa. Gibson
then proceeded to post a .920 SV% in the final year of his ELC over 40 games.
Had he simply waited until his ELC expired to sign a new deal, he could have
solicited more dough.
Johnny had
some injury issues, but put up fantastic numbers when healthy, finishing the
contract with 53 Goals Saved Above Average and a .922 SV%. In year three he was
the runaway favourite to win the Vezina trophy before the Mighty Ducks
season collapsed. He got a big contract when this one expired, but the jury is
still out on whether that’s a good investment.
6. Cam Fowler
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
D |
||
|
Date: |
2012-09-15 |
Age July 1st: |
21 |
|
|
Term: |
5 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
49 |
|
Total Money: |
$20M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
26 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$4M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
23.5 |
366 |
169 |
608 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.7 |
82 |
38 |
136 |
23.5 |
"It was more than a fair offer, and I
was completely happy with it. Talking about it with my agent and my family, we
knew that this was the best decision for me. We made sure all the pieces fit
together, and they absolutely did.”
Cam Fowler had
a sensational rookie season as an 18-year-old, scoring 40 PTS, but fell down to
29 PTS the following campaign, after which Murray locked him into a cheap
extension. This treaty was forged one day after John Carlson had inked an
equivalent contract, but both were cousins of the Erik Johnson ticket from
earlier in the summer.
It proved to
be an astute buy-low decision with Fowler’s output rebounding. Over the final 2
years they got a 40-point defenseman playing nearly 25 minutes per game. The
good news for Cam was that the deal walked him to unrestricted free agency, so
Bob Murray offered a generous salary and 7-year term to entice Fowler to
return. Another team might have offered more money if he went to July 1st,
but who wants to leave Anaheim, right?
7. Teemu
Selanne
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2005-08-22 |
Age July 1st: |
34 |
|
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
16 |
|
Total Money: |
$1M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
14 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
2.1 |
80 |
90 |
267 |
|
Per 82 GP |
2.1 |
82 |
92 |
274 |
17.8 |
"I signed Teemu because I think he
makes us a better hockey team. We're anticipating he'll play on our top six.
Certainly, I'm counting on him for top-six ice time and the power play.”
Teemu Selanne
had one of the worst seasons of his career in 2004, scoring just 32 PTS in 78
GP for the Colorado Avalanche, hobbled by a chronic knee
issue. While other NHLers were moonlighting in Europe, Teemu spent the work
stoppage rehabilitating from reconstructive knee surgery. The Finnish Flash was
35-years-old when the new CBA was signed, so there was incredible risk against
inking him to a long-term ticket. Having previously played 6 seasons with the Mighty
Ducks, returning to the OC was a comfortable fit. Brian Burke was able to sign
him on a 1-year term at a very team friendly price.
Teemu emerged
from the lockout as a new man who had been shot out of a cannon. The Flash
scored 40 goals and 90 PTS for $1M exactly. That’s one of the best bargains on
one-year contracts in the salary cap era. Even adjusting for cap inflation,
that is the cheapest price any team has ever paid on a non-entry level contract
in the salary cap era for a season of 90 or more PTS. His next contract was more
expensive, but ranked higher on this list because it produced a Stanley Cup
win. Nominally though, this was the bigger bargain.
8. Sami
Vatanen
|
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2014-07-22 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
23 |
|
Total Money: |
$2.5M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
15 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.26M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
3.0 |
138 |
75 |
262 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.5 |
82 |
45 |
156 |
21.4 |
“I’ve never been scared about mistakes. Everyone makes them. You
use them to learn.”
Sami Vatanen
had only accumulated 56 games of NHL experience (scoring at a 33-point pace)
when this was signed, allowing Bob Murray to secure his signature on a
discounted bridge
deal. Sami’s offensive upside was on full display in the AHL, where he had
scored 52 PTS in 56 GP. But his days of commuting back and forth to Norfolk
ended with his ELC, as Vatanen would start flaunting that upside in the NHL.
In 138 GP he
scored 75 PTS from the blueline (45 PTS per 82 GP), averaging over 21 minutes
per game. It’s hard to get this much offense from a defenseman for such a
low-price tag. Vatanen re-signed for a fair wage, but was traded to New Jersey
in year one of that deal for Adam Henrique, as the exodus of good young defensemen
from the Mighty Ducks roster continued.
9. Andy
McDonald
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2006-07-05 |
Age July 1st: |
28 |
|
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
25 |
|
Total Money: |
$10M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
18 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$3.3M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
16.6 |
210 |
174 |
562 |
|
Per 82 GP |
5.5 |
82 |
68 |
219 |
18.0 |
“If you had asked me a month ago, I
wouldn’t have paid that much. It would be a different number, but my
instructions from ownership are quite clear. They want to pay what’s fair.”
Andy McDonald
should have been an unrestricted free agent when his contract expired on July 1st 2006 at age 28 (after an 85-point season), but provisions in the new CBA
obstructed his path to the open market. Brian Burke seemed prepared to lowball
Andy into a smaller deal, but said that ownership wanted “fair” pay.
It’s entirely
plausible that Burke was simply saying that as a negotiating tactic, because
the terms they finally agreed to were below market value. A week earlier Henrik
Sedin had signed for more money following a 75-point season. Burke made it seem
like ownership was forcing him to pay a fair wage, when Andy was actually
taking a team friendly deal.
It would pay
off for both sides, as McDonald got his name engraved on the Stanley Cup. His
production slowed the following season, likely just a Stanley Cup hangover,
when he was traded to
the St. Louis Blues for Doug Weight, where he re-discovered his scoring touch.
A broken leg would cost him half of the final season, but Andy was still able
to get an $18.8M commitment from the Blues.
10. Nick
Bonino
|
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2013-11-27 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
51 |
|
Total Money: |
$5.7M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
28 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.9M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
2 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
6.6 |
218 |
105 |
388 |
|
Per 82 GP |
2.2 |
82 |
39 |
146 |
16.5 |
“I’m 25 so it’s a great deal for me. I’m
obviously happy to stay with this team, with all the guys here.”
The Mighty
Ducks saved themselves some money by extending Nick Bonino in November of what
would turn out to be the best season of his career, scoring 22 goals and 49
PTS. But before he could even play a game on this contract, Bob Murray traded him
to the Canucks as part of the Ryan Kesler deal. After one mediocre season, the
Canucks flipped him to the Penguins for Brandon Sutter.
It was in
Pittsburgh where the magic happened, as Bonino played a significant supporting
role helping the Pens win 2 Stanley Cups, scoring 25 PTS in 45 GP over those
two playoff runs. Ergo: Nick made this list for what he accomplished on another
team, but it was signed by Anaheim, so here it is. His next contract would become
an overpayment for the Nashville Predators.
11. Chris
Kunitz
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2006-07-20 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
19 |
|
Total Money: |
$2.1M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
8 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.06M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
3.7 |
163 |
110 |
376 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.9 |
82 |
55 |
189 |
17.0 |
“He’s one of our Swiss army knives. He’s
good enough to play on the top line and tough enough to play on the fourth
line. And he can do almost anything in between.”
Chris Kunitz
came to the Anaheim Mighty Ducks in 2003/04 as an undrafted college free
agent. When the league resumed following the work stoppage, Anaheim actually lost
Kunitz via a waiver claim to the Atlanta Thrashers Winnipeg Jets.
Thankfully, he only played 2 games in Atlanta Winnipeg before he was
waived again and re-claimed by Anaheim. Catastrophe averted.
Chris would
heat up and finish that season with 41 PTS in 69 GP to earn himself a decent
(but cheap) 2-year bridge deal. He would score 110 regular season PTS over
these 2 seasons, also chipping in 6 playoff PTS in Anaheim’s Cup run and got
his name carved into the trophy.
12. Troy Terry
|
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2020-07-14 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
|
Total Money: |
$4.35M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.45M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
4.4 |
123 |
87 |
261 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.5 |
82 |
58 |
174 |
16.9 |
“When they sent me down, it hurt me, but I’m proud of the
way I responded down there. I did my job down there. It was part of the growing
pains, I guess.”
Troy Terry
signed this contract after scoring 15 PTS in 47 games during the 2019/20
season, which would pace for 26 PTS in 82 GP. My algorithm priced his stat line
at $1.2M, so if anything he received a slight wage premium relative to his
performance. He exploded onto the scene
in 2021/22 with an outstanding breakout campaign, scoring 67 PTS in 75 GP,
which carries an expected free agent value of $7.2M. That’s quite a discount!
13. Jonas
Hiller
|
Signed By: |
Brian Burke |
Position: |
G |
|
|
Date: |
2008-06-11 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
7 |
|
Total Money: |
$2.6M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.943 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.3M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
1.9 |
105 |
53 |
2.59 |
0.918 |
“Jonas really likes living in Anaheim”
Jonas Hiller
only played 29 games in North America on his entry level contract (after
signing as an undrafted free agent), and played outstanding in his 23 game NHL
stint with a .927 SV%. He overtook Ilya Bryzgalov on the Mighty Ducks
goaltending depth chart, leading Burke to trade the enigmatic Russian to Phoenix
Arizona. Burke then signed Hiller to a 2-year bridge deal similar to what
Bryzgalov had signed 2 years earlier.
Jonas would
soon overtake J.S Giguere on that same depth chart, prompting management to
trade Jiggy to the Leafs. Hiller provided the team with 105 games of above
average goaltending for well below the average price of a starting goalie,
finishing the deal with 25 Goals Saved Above Average. The Swiss netminder also
recorded an impressive .943 SV% in 13 playoff games, even better than his .918
regular season mark. His next contract would produce a lower save percentage
for triple the price.
14. Frederik
Andersen
|
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
G |
|
|
Date: |
2013-10-24 |
Age July 1st: |
24 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
14 |
|
Total Money: |
$2.3M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.921 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.15M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
1.4 |
97 |
57 |
2.34 |
0.916 |
“Every tine we get another Danish player
on one of the teams over here, it’s pretty huge and a proud moment for
Denmark.”
Frederik
Andersen had only played a single game in the NHL when Bob Murray secured his
autograph on this 2-year bridge deal. The Danish goaltender had only arrived in
North America one year earlier, and had been outstanding in the AHL, where he
posted a .929 SV%. Neither he or the team had any guarantee that he would
become a really good goalie, but the price and term were low risk.
That risk
would produce a big reward. The Mighty Ducks got a legit #1 goalie at a
substantial discount. Freddy had a win-loss record of 57-21 with a 2.34 GAA and
.916 SV%. But as John Gibson started to emerge as their goalie of the future,
Murray shipped
Freddy to the Leafs for a fantastic return (1st and 2nd
round draft picks) that produced Sam Steel and Max Comtois.
15. Rickard
Rakell
|
Signed By: |
Bob Murray |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2016-10-14 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
21 |
|
Total Money: |
$23.1M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
14 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$3.85M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
24.2 |
404 |
274 |
1115 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.0 |
82 |
56 |
226 |
18.2 |
"The injury held this up a little
bit. Everybody can understand we wanted to be totally comfortable that Ricky
was going to be OK going forward."
Rickard Rakell
went unsigned into the 2016/17 season, in part because of multiple knee
surgeries. The Swede had scored 43 PTS in the final year of his ELC and was due
a salary in the $4M range. It could have benefited both sides to do a bridge
deal, but Bob Murray decided to gamble by locking him in for 6-years at
the price of a 45-point player, buying 2 years of unrestricted free agency.
Victor Rask had signed an almost identical contract a few months earlier, and
this could easily have taken a downward turn like what happened with Rask.
The bet paid
off, as Ricky climbed up to 51 PTS in year one, and 69 PTS in year two. There
was some regression in year three, after the team’s offense struggled to score
goals. His agent is Claude Lemieux, so it brings me pleasure to know that
Rakell left money on the table.
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