Friday, November 4, 2022

Worst NHL Contracts 2022

Before we get started, I’d like to take a moment to plug my new book, The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

Who has the worst contract in the NHL? To help me answer this question, I ran a series of Twitter polls asking respondents to choose which was worse. A total of 61 players participated in the tournament. Some players received byes to later rounds, and not every contract in the preliminary round was necessarily bad. There were some that I’m simply concerned about and haven’t necessarily started breaking bad, but it was left to my Twitter followers to decide who would advance to the next round. I did not agree with every decision, but respected the results of the election.

It’s common practice for me to comment on new signings on Twitter, and lately it feels like every time I post a concern about a contract (most often big term given beyond 30th birthdays), someone replies “don’t worry, the cap will go up”. That seems to be the new built-in excuse whenever a fan base needs to relieve their anxiety. Don’t worry, none of these long-term deals can possibly go wrong because the cap is going to go up. As much as I’d love to share in your optimism that every contract signed now can’t possibly break bad, I also wrote a book in 2020 about the 450 worst contracts of the salary cap era (which will be updated and given away for free throughout the season chapter by chapter).

I’ve been mapping this rabbit hole for decades, and was obsessively copying and pasting all the contracts from the original Cap Geek back in the day. My database includes hundreds of deals that you can’t even find on Cap Friendly. I was also copying-pasting everything from the old “NHL Numbers” site. If you want to tell me something is good, I can start listing every comparable deal that wasn’t, dating back to 2005 (I also have a 1000 entry database of pre-cap contracts, but don’t tap that often).

Or perhaps my long-standing obsession with bad contracts has made me jaded, leaving me with a type of anxiety disorder where every time I see a new deal, it starts provoking memories of similar examples that went terribly wrong. It’s possible that my experience has made me too pessimistic, and sometimes I’m wrong. It happens. In the past I was more prone to wait for a contract to actually turn bad before declaring it to be such. Even today, I don’t often openly say that a new contract is terrible. Instead the response is more “this makes me nervous”. My “spider-sense” is acute, but it’s not always right. Still, I think any GM in the league would be smart to have me in an office down the hall.

To view my Best NHL Contracts list, click here. To view my past Worst NHL Contracts lists, click here:

 

1) Erik Karlsson, San Jose:

      2021 Rank: 1
     Age: 32
      Remaining Term: 5 years
      Cap Hit: $11.5M
      Signing GM: Doug Wilson, June 17, 2019
 
Erik Karlsson captured his second consecutive worst contract championship. I did vote for Vlasic in the final, so the final order might have been reversed had this been left entirely to my own discretion. The biggest difference between Karlsson and Vlasic is that Erik is still a much better defenseman (when healthy), averaging 23.5 minutes per game and scoring at a 57-point pace in 2021/22. Per 82 GP, he produced at an $8M level. Problem is, he’s making $11.5M. So as good as he was, it was still a painfully large overpayment. 

What makes that harder to swallow is his injury problems, never playing more than 56 games in his 4-year San Jose tenure (note he played 52 of 56 in 2021). The term, age, and health, make this a big concern going forward. It also needs to be noted that EK has started the 2022/23 season on fire, scoring 18 PTS in his first 13 GP, which is pacing for 113 PTS. The highest total for a D-man in the salary cap era is Roman Josi with his 96 last year. So as insane as this price tag may be, Karlsson is on pace to earn every penny in this current campaign.
 
2) Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose:

    2021 Rank: 3
    Age: 35
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $7M
    Signing GM: Doug Wilson, July 1st, 2017
 
This poll series could not have been a fun experience for San Jose Sharks fans, but at least the outlook is not quite as dark as it was in 2020. The light at the end of this dark tunnel is getting a little brighter each season, but is still at least 4 years away. While Karlsson played top pairing minutes last season, Vlasic averaged under 16 minutes per game and is barely NHL-level at this point. 

They are both untradable albatross contracts, but at least Karlsson can still get it done. Where MEV could perhaps provide the most value would be as a top pair defender matched up against the other team’s best players, assuming the team was in full tank mode trying to get Connor Bedard. That’s how this liability could become an asset, albeit an expensive asset. The Brent Burns trade created a monster hole on the Sharks blueline, so Vlasic is seeing an increased role in 2022/23.
 
3) Tyler Seguin, Dallas:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 30
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $9.85M
    Signing GM: Jim Nill, Sep 13, 2018
 
This contract is horseshit. Management can complain all they want that their highest paid players need to earn their contracts, but you can’t snap your fingers and reverse the physical toll their bodies have taken in recent years. This extension was signed after his 40-goal campaign in 2018, when he was worth approximately $9.3M (which is the highest E[FA$] value of his entire career). He only scored at a 59-point pace in year one (which was worth approximately $6.4M) then played only 3 games in year two (2021).
 
If you’re wondering why he was unranked in last year’s list, it’s because you all hated Oliver Ekman-Larsson far more, and knocked Seguin out of the tournament. Yes, while that poll was happening, I expressed confusion as to why OEL was getting so many more votes than Seguin. Fast forward one year later, and voters had him as the 3rd worst contract in the entire league. So yeah, I do feel vindicated if you’re wondering.
 
4) Jamie Benn, Dallas:

    2021 Rank: 9
    Age: 33
     Remaining Term: 3 years
     Cap Hit: $9.6M
     Signing GM: Jim Nill, July 15, 2016
 
This contract is also horseshit, but slightly less so than his teammate. Benn is sporting a smaller tab on his remaining bill. Dallas has some very bright young stars in Robertson, Heiskanen, and Oettinger to build around going forward, but paying nearly $20M to Seguin-Benn is a debilitating problem for management to work around. Benn isn’t a bad player. He’s still useful and would probably get an offer from every other NHL team if the Stars bought him out, but none of those offers would be anywhere near the price he’s currently being paid.
 
Dallas signed Benn to this extension following the 2015/16 season when he scored 89 PTS and finished second in league scoring at age 26. My algorithm priced that stat line at $9.9M, so he got paid what he was worth. His PTS per 82 GP in the seasons since that peak, 73, 79, 56, 46, 55, 46. For the last 4 seasons, his stat lines have been worth between $4M to $5M, or roughly half of his actual salary. Ouch!
 
5) Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida:

    2021 Rank: 4
    Age: 34
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $10M
    Signing GM: Dale Talon, July 1st 2019

 
Bobrovsky had a very rough beginning in Florida and was within a few votes of winning my worst contract Twitter poll tournament last season. Year one, this was looking especially bad, when he posted a .900 SV% for $10M, while year two was slightly less worse at .906, but still nowhere near the price tag. Then in 2021/22, Bobby went 39-7 with a .913 SV% as Florida won the President’s trophy. That being said, his stat line registered a value of $6.1M according to my expected free agent value algorithm. Even if having Bobrovsky was a net positive in year three, they were still paying him $4M too much. More of the credit goes to scoring more goals than any other team, but getting decent goaltending was enough to lock down many victories.
 
Despite that improvement, Bob still finished 5th in voting for the worst contract tournament, which is slightly better than a year ago. There must be some skepticism about the replicability of those numbers, especially considering the Panthers have one of the best goaltending prospects in the league backing up their $10M man. If Spencer Knight overtakes him on the depth chart, this could get really ugly.
 
 
6) Darnell Nurse, Edmonton:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 27
    Remaining Term: 8 years
    Cap Hit: $9.25M
    Signing GM: Ken Holland, Aug 6, 2021
 
You don’t normally see contracts that just started on my annual worst contracts list. There are plenty of deals that make me cringe, but I’ll generally give the player an opportunity to prove he’s worth the money before being too harsh with my judgements. Darnell Nurse is a very good player, and every single GM in the league would love to have him on their roster. If he was planning to leave Edmonton and that was the minimum price needed to convince him to stay, then we can judge the efficacy by how the Oilers perform in the playoffs. 

My Expected Free Agency Salary algorithm has priced his last 4 stat lines at $6.7M, $6M, $8.6M (after which the extension was signed), and $6.8M. Darnell scored at a 53-point pace in 2021 when the Oilers feasted on a weak Canadian division. But otherwise, he’s around a $7M player, so a $2.25M overpayment lasting until his mid 30s could get really ugly.

 
7) Drew Doughty, Los Angeles:

    2021 Rank: 8
    Age: 32
     Remaining Term: 5 years
     Cap Hit: $11M
     Signing GM: Rob Blake, July 1st 2018
 
Let’s at least give Drew credit for having a resurgent performance in 2021/22 before an injury cost him the season. He proved that he’s still a really good defenseman, but when the best D in the league is making $9M, then $11M is hard to swallow. He was severely underpaid on his previous deal, and expected reimbursement in order to sign an extension. Injuries aside, if his contract had been 8 years at $6M aav, it might have earned consideration for my LA Kings Best Contracts list. 

At the right price, Drew is still very effective. Sadly for King’s fans the price tag is currently prohibitive. For the first 3 years of this deal, Doughty’s E[FA$] per 82 GP was $7.7M, $8.7M, and $9.6M. He was producing like a $10M defenseman at the time of his injury. Now it remains to be seen how well he recovers from that setback. At 32-years-old, he’s vulnerable to the tightening grip of Father Time, and may not be able to elude him any longer.
 
 
8) Jeff Skinner, Buffalo:

    2021 Rank: 2
    Age: 30
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $9M
    Signing GM: Jason Botterill, June 7, 2019
 
The outlook on the Skinner contract was much bleaker 365 days ago after he produced at the level of a player earning $1.5M. Once Ralph Kruger was fired and the new coach started giving Skinner an expanded role, he actually had a good season. Granted, it still wasn’t anywhere near where you’d expect a player at this pay grade, but it’s less worse than a year ago. Jeff sank to 8th this season after competing in the championship of last summer’s worst contract poll series, finishing second. 

The coaching change elevated his E[FA$] from $1.5M up to $6.1M, which is still considerably below his paygrade, but a substantial improvement none the less. The 40-goal season that earned him this extension was priced by my algorithm at $7.2M, which was also the highest value of his entire career. There are a few guys on this list who got paid for a career stat line they have not been able to replicate since. Skinner is no different.
 
 
9) Seth Jones, Chicago:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 8 years
    Cap Hit: $9.5M
    Signing GM: Stan Bowman, July 23 2021
 
This is another case where I really like the player, but just can’t make sense of the price tag. It was the biproduct of Stan Bowman taking one last swing at relevancy before getting fired. Rest assured, this contract was among the reasons for his dismissal. Suddenly Chicago finds themselves in full tank mode as this contract enters year one. They had a fire-sale this offseason, unloading everything of value they could, but this is one piece that will be tough to find a buyer. 

Seth’s 51 PTS and 26.2 minutes per game is worth approximately $8.7M, which is very nearly in the ballpark, but he was a $7M player for his last 2 seasons in Columbus. His point production should drop substantially after the exodus, especially after Patrick Kane is gonzo. This contract is at risk at being a full-blown catastrophe in one year. If Seth falls into 30-point territory, this contract could contend for the worst in the league next summer.
 
 
10) John Tavares, Toronto:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 32
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $11M
    Signing GM: Kyle Dubas, July1, 2018
 
John Tavares has been a good player in Toronto, but the most important statistic is zero playoff series won. It’s not that he sucks, he’s just getting paid too much relative to his production, and the team’s salary structure has to be at least partially responsible for their lack of playoff success. I’m not saying he’s a bad player, but the price tag is making it more difficult for management to build a roster that can win a playoff series. 

In the last 3 seasons, he has produced around the level a $7.5M player, scoring in the 70-80 point range. Does his leadership or “intangibles” justify a $3.5M annual overpayment? As a Leafs hater, this contract gave me an anxiety attack when it was signed, but in retrospect, it has become an albatross impeding their roster construction. Perhaps it was a blessing, not a curse, four seasons deep and zero playoff series won. My fear at the time was that they’d win a Cup before the Marner-Matthews ELCs expired.
 
11) Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouver:
 
    2021 Rank: 12
    Age: 31
     Remaining Term: 5 years
     Cap Hit: $8.25M
     Signing GM: John Chayka, July 1, 2018
 
OEL came out of the voting process in exactly the same rank as the previous season. It should be noted that Arizona retained salary after the trade, so the negative impact to the Canucks is not as bad as the number suggests. But for voting purposes, the full ticket counts, even if the Coyotes are carrying part of the load. There’s a price tag where any GM in the league would want to buy OEL, but it ain’t $8.25M. 

According to my algorithm, the ideal price for this asset would be $4.5M per season. If he hit the open market tomorrow, my prediction would be in the neighborhood of 3 years at a $4M aav (he could maybe get $5.5M on a 1-year). Last season he scored 29 PTS in 79 GP, averaging 22.3 minutes of ice time. At a certain point, you wonder if the deployment is to justify the price tag.
 
 
12) Brendan Gallagher, Montreal:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 30
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $6.5M
    Signing GM: Marc Bergevin, Oct 14, 2020
 
Gallagher was very underpaid on his previous contract, so the only way Montreal could extend him is to offer a salary higher than what he’d likely get on the open market. There had already been a hometown discount, so Brendan wasn’t going to accept anything but a sweet deal to keep him off the market. The other option would have been to offer a lower cap hit but a full term. $39M over 8 years would have carried a $4.875M cap hit. More pain at the end, more manageable now. 

Frankly the best option would have been to let him walk, as we’re talking about a very physical player with an injury history. There were some red flags, but the GM (who has since been fired) liked the player too much to see the forest through the trees. The maximum value of my E[FA$] algorithm in his career is $5.1M (in 2018/19), so at no point in his entire tenure has he even been close to a $6.5M player.
 
 
13) Philipp Grubauer, Seattle:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 30
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $5.9M
    Signing GM: Ron Francis, July 28, 2021
 
The inaugural season of the Seattle Kraken was a disaster, aside from the fact that they lucked into Shane Wright in the draft. Grubauer got paid, and was awful. He played 55 games with a 3.16 GAA and .889 save percentage. My goalie expected free agent value algorithm priced his stat line at $1.4M, but it was only that high because of the workload. Frankly, you can hire any scrub for the league minimum and get an .889 SV% if you insist on trotting them out for 55 games. 

You could argue the first year was a success because they landed Wright, but they could have accomplished the same goal by signing a journeyman to the league minimum. It’s entirely plausible given the unpredictable and erratic nature of goalie careers that Grubauer rebounds, plays well, and earns his salary. I’ve been doing these lists for over a decade, it wouldn’t be the first time a player made me eat crow. I can always just blame the democratic process.
 
 
14) Nicklas Backstrom, Washington:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 34
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $9.2M
    Signing GM: Brian MacLellan, Jan 14, 2020
 
When I ran my first bad contract poll in late spring that included Nick Backstrom, there were multiple replies that it’s not a bad deal because he’s never going to play hockey again so the money can be hidden on LTIR. He had major hip surgery that has ended careers in the past, so there is a basis for that claim. However, Backstrom himself has said he’s determined to resume his playing career. 

While his teammates surely want him to attempt a comeback, management is probably less enthusiastic. If they knew he was never playing again, they could find replacements with more certainty, instead of saving cap space for a possible return. Perhaps the best-case scenario now is for Backstrom to miss the entire regular season akin to Nikita Kucherov, allowing for significant cap overages at the trade deadline. Worst-case, he returns as a shadow of his former self and stays that way (and on the ice) for the remaining 3 seasons, akin to Tyler Seguin.
 
 
15) Logan Couture, San Jose:

    2021 Rank: not ranked
    Age: 33
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $8M
    Signing GM: Doug Wilson, July 1, 2018
 
Carey Price originally occupied a spot on this list, but was removed as an injury exemption after it was announced that he would miss the entire 2022/23 season, and that his career might even be over. His replacement was Logan Couture, and if it was announced that the Sharks center suffered a similar fate, that might bring some relief to a fan base already struggling to process the mental burden of the Karlsson and Vlasic calamities. 

Their Cap Friendly page should come with a trigger warning for their fans. Though it should be noted that Couture did bounce back last season, performing like a $6M player scoring at a 60-point pace. He was almost worth the investment. Now he’s 33 years old with 5 years remaining. If he ages well, then he could prove me wrong (or should I say, prove "us" wrong since he finished 16th in the polling). If I’m wrong on any of these, I’ll just blame democracy.
 
 
The Next 15:
 (by Twitter poll vote share order)
 
· Matt Murray, Toronto, 2 more yrs @ $6.25M:
· Anders Lee, Islanders, 4 more yrs @ $7M:
· Jordan Binnington, St. Louis, 5 more yrs @ $xM:
· Tyler Myers, Vancouver, 2 more yrs @ $6M:
· Tucker Poolman, Vancouver, 3 more yrs @ $2.5M:
· Brent Burns, Carolina, 2 more yrs @ $8M:
· Tyler Johnson, Chicago, 2 more yrs @ $5M:
· Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey, 6 more yrs @ $9M:
· William Karlsson, Vegas, 5 more yrs @ $5.9M:
· Jake McCabe, Chicago, 3 more yrs @ $4M:
· Jamie Oleksiak, Seattle, 4 more yrs @ $4.6M:
· Rasmus Ristolainen, Philadelphia, 5 more yrs @ $5M:
· Joel Armia, Montreal, 3 more yrs @ $3.4M:
· Kevin Hayes, Philadelphia, 4 more yrs @ $7.1M:
· Kyle Palmieri, Islanders, 3 more yrs @ $5M:
 
Dishonorable Mentions:
 (in no particular order)
 
· Erik Gudbranson, Columbus, 4 more yrs @ $4M:
· Charlie Coyle, Boston, 4 more yrs @ $5.25M:
· Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim, 2 more yrs @ $5.25M:
· Adam Henrique, Anaheim, 2 more yrs @ $4.8M:
· Zack Kassian, Edmonton, 2 more yrs @ $3.2M:
· Ryan Johansen, Nashville, 3 more yrs @ $8M:
· Nikita Zaitsev, Ottawa, 2 more yrs @ $4.5M:
· Josh Anderson, Montreal, 5 more yrs @ $5.5M:
· Ryan Suter, Dallas, 3 more yrs @ $3.7M:
· Alec Martinez, Vegas, 2 more yrs @ $5.3M:
· Nate Schmidt, Winnipeg, 3 more yrs @ $6M:
· Marcus Pettersson, Pittsburgh, 3 more yrs @ $4M:
· Petr Mrazek, Chicago, 2 more yrs @ $3.8M:
· Derek Forbort, Boston, 2 more yrs @ $3M:
· Kevin Labanc, San Jose, 2 more yrs @ $4.7M:
· Anthony Mantha, Washington, 2 more yrs @ $5.7M:
· Jason Dickinson, Vancouver, 2 more yrs @ $2.7M:
 
I’ve Got My Eye On You:
A few of these guys have already begun to decline, others are entering the crosshairs of Father Time. It may not happen this year, but everyone below is a future contender for Worst contracts list.
(in no particular order)
 
· T.J Oshie, Washington, 3 more yrs @ $5.75M:
· Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas, 5 more yrs @ $8.8M:
· Brayden Schenn, St, Louis, 6 more yrs @ $6.5M:
· Matt Duchene, Nashville, 4 more yrs @ $8M:
· J.T Miller, Vancouver, 7 yrs @ $8M:
· Kris Letang, Pittsburgh, 6 more yrs @ $6.1M:
· Evgeni Malkin, Pittsburgh, 4 more yrs @ $6.1M:
· Cam Atkinson, Philadelphia, 3 more yrs @ $5.9M:
· Jacob Markstrom, Calgary, 4 more yrs @6M:
· Mika Zibanejad, Rangers, 8 more yrs @ $8.5M:
· Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota, 5 more yrs @ $7.6M:
· Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Carolina, 8 more yrs @ $4.8M:
· Zach Werenski, Columbus, 6 more yrs @ $9.5M:
· Colton Parayko, St. Louis, 8 more yrs @ $6.4M:
· Jeff Petry, Pittsburgh, 3 more yrs @ $6.3M:
· Jacob Trouba, Rangers, 4 more yrs @ $8M:
· Jonathan Huberdeau, Calgary, 8 yrs @ $10.5M:
· Nazem Kadri, Calgary, 7 more yrs @ $7M:
· Tomas Hertl, San Jose, 8 more yrs @ $8.1M:
· Blake Coleman, Calgary, 5 more yrs @ $4.9M:
 
It Will All be Over Soon:
 
· Jakub Voracek, Columbus, $8.25M:
· Evgenii Dadonov, Montreal, $5M:
· James Van Riemsdyk, Philadelphia, $7M:
· Jonathan Toews, Chicago, $10.5M:
· Jason Zucker, Pittsburgh, $5.5M:
· Milan Lucic, Calgary, $6M:
· Andrew Ladd, Arizona, $5.5M:
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