Friday, December 30, 2022

Los Angeles Kings 15 Worst Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.

My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 

Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.


--------------------------------

Most of the success that the Los Angeles Kings have enjoyed in the salary cap era has come largely on the backs of Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick. Other supporting pieces also made valuable contributions (like Justin Williams, Dustin Brown, etc), but it’s the big 3 that were the primary drivers of their achievements, which includes a pair of Stanley Cup championships.
 
The building blocks of those titles are outlined in greater detail on their best contracts list, reaching the ultimate apex in 2012 and 2014, but experiencing some deep valleys before and after. Some of the Kings biggest mistakes were a direct result of those championships, where legacy players who made a big contribution were overpaid on long-term treaties. Marian Gaborik signed his extension while everyone was still drunk from the victory party.
 
 
1. Marian Gaborik
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2014-06-25

Age July 1st:

32

Term:

7 years

 

Playoff GP:

4

Total Money:

$34.1M

 

Playoff PTS:

1

Cap Hit:       

$4.9M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

37.3

225

111

519

 

Per 82 GP

5.3

82

40

189

15.3

“I know I could get maybe more money if I would have gone to free agency, but it wasn’t about money. I wanted to stay here and be part of a great team. All along I wanted to stay here. The organization knew it, the players knew it, everybody knew it, my agent knew it. I believed we could get it done.”
It might be a bad idea negotiating a new contract while you’re still celebrating a Stanley Cup victory, but Marian Gaborik was about to become an unrestricted free agent at age 32. If Dean Lombardi wanted to keep his Stanley Cup roster mostly intact, he needed to act fast. The Slovakian winger had scored 14 playoff goals on their road to ultimate victory, so it’s forgivable that Lombardi made this a priority. But it’s an enormous risk signing a 32-year-old player to a 7-year contract, especially one with an injury history. That was the blunder.
 
What makes this even more confusing is that Gaborik even admitted that everyone knew he wanted to stay in Los Angeles and had no intention of leaving, so Dean was bargaining against himself…and lost…The Kings would get one quasi-decent season out of Gabo before the returns started to dwindle, eventually trading him to Ottawa for future buyout Dion Phaneuf in a mutual salary dump. This contract could have been much worse but the Senators were saved by LTIR.
 
 
2. Drew Doughty
 

Signed By:

Rob Blake

Position:

D

Date:

2018-07-01

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

8 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$88M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$11M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

88.4

162

100

341

 

Per 82 GP

11.1

82

51

173

26.0

"Drew Doughty is one of the best defencemen in the world, and we are obviously excited to have reached this point in the process in which he has committed to the Kings long-term"
If salary were not an issue and there was no cap, there are 32 General Managers who would love to have Drew Doughty on their roster (sorry, I borrowed that line from my Jonathan Toews synopsis). Drew is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and we’ve seen defensemen in that mold have tremendous careers into their late 30s (Scott Neidermayer, Nick Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara, etc). My decision to pre-emptively declare this to be a bad contract after only a single season risked making me look foolish a few years down the road (I may have to cut and paste this summary when I get to Erik Karlsson on the San Jose list).
 
We simply haven’t seen this kind of term or money spent on a defenseman over the age of 28 since Brian Campbell in 2008. Most of Drew’s recent comparables secured salaries in the $6M to $8M range (adjusted for cap inflation). Doughty pushed the bar higher than we’ve seen in a long time, and Erik Karlsson would use that to extract similar terms from San Jose one year later.
 
Had this been an 8-year $8M AAV deal like John Carlson, it would not be on this list. Doughty reached a career high 60 PTS in 2018 before inking this ticket, but dropped back down to the 40-point range in the 2 years following. But now that he’s past his 30th birthday, there is enormous risk on the horizon. This may overtake Gaborik in future versions of this list, but was slotted here because it’s not impossible that he’s still good.
 
 
3. Dustin Brown
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2013-07-18

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

8 years

 

Playoff GP:

16

Total Money:

$47M

 

Playoff PTS:

4

Cap Hit:       

$5.9M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

50.9

576

297

1428

 

Per 82 GP

6.4

82

42

203

17.5

"Going into this, I did my homework and did comparisons and received help from the Players' Association on some numbers and stats. I realized in a cap era that there's only so much money to go around, and with the cap going down this year and not having that certainty what it will be next year, there's an opportunity to keep this team together. That was part of my decision in wanting to stay because I believe we have a chance to win."
Dustin Brown had been hovering above a 50-point pace for 6 consecutive seasons by July of 2013 when he and Dean Lombardi agreed to an 8-year extension a full year before their captain would have been UFA at age 29. The Kings would win their last Stanley Cup before this deal began, a season where Brown saw his output plunge to 27 PTS in 82 GP. Had this been negotiated following a 27-point campaign, it would have turned out much differently. This was a great example of “maybe the GM should have waited”, as the euphoria in a Stanley Cup aftermath isn’t necessarily an ideal time to get a deal done (as previously discussed).
 
While Brown had been a loyal (and underpaid) soldier for several years, there was cause for concern. Dustin had already accumulated over 2000 hits in his NHL career and was at significant risk of decline as the aging process advanced. The first 3 years of this deal was a fail, then Brown experienced an unexpected resurgence at age 32, jumping from 36 to 61 PTS (that might have been on the coat-tails of a Kopitar resurgence). It’s also worth pointing out that the Kings have won zero playoff series since this deal started. The dynasty died the day Dustin’s previous contract expired.
 
 
4. Tom Preissing
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

D

Date:

2007-07-02

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$11M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.75M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

16.3

103

32

139

 

Per 82 GP

4.1

82

25

111

17.4

"I think today we're a better hockey team"
Tom Preissing emerged from the 2005 lockout to score 43 PTS for the San Jose Sharks in his 2nd NHL season. He followed that up with 38 PTS for Ottawa before becoming an unrestricted free agent at age 28. The Kings were desperate to bolster their blueline in the summer of 2007, but most of the big-name guys like Rafalski, Timonen, Schneider, and Souray were on the wrong side of 30 and didn’t necessarily vibe with the trajectory and optimal timeline of the Kings young core. Preissing probably wasn’t Lombardi’s first choice, but fit their arc better.
 
Dean didn’t get what he paid for. By year two, Preissing cleared waivers and was demoted to the AHL. That summer Tommy Boy was packaged with Kyle Quincey and a 5th round pick and shipped to Colorado for Ryan Smyth. That’s where Preissing really picked up the scoring pace, making an immediate impact with the Colorado Avalanche Lake Erie Monsters, where he scored 31 PTS in 49 GP. The Avs bought out the remaining year at the end of the season.
 
 
5. Ilya Kovalchuk
 

Signed By:

Rob Blake

Position:

F

Date:

2018-07-01

Age July 1st:

35

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

5

Total Money:

$18.75M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$6.25M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

19.1

110

60

256

 

Per 82 GP

6.4

82

45

191

16.5

“I’ve won the Gagarin Cup twice in the KHL, I know what it takes. But in the NHL there are more regular-season games and all of the best players are playing here, so it’s a big challenge. I was here for a long time and I know what it takes to get to the Final, but I’ve never had a chance to raise the Cup.”
Ilya Kovalchuk had been on hiatus in Russia for 5 years after abruptly walking away from his $100M contract in New Jersey, returning to North America at age 35. The winger had still been posting impressive numbers in the KHL, but nobody truly knew what to expect when he got back on the NHL ice. There was a colossal sized risk giving him a 3-year term at age 35 because it would still count against the cap if the enigmatic Russian got home sick again. There were many suitors for his services, but Rob Blake made the winning bid, paying Ilya like he was still a 60-point producer.
 
It became clear right away that he was no longer the same Kovalchuk who helped the Devils to the Stanley Cup finals. This soured very quickly. By year two they healthy scratched him for 18 consecutive games. Ilya waited until he received his next signing bonus, then quit the team, allowing Blake to terminate the deal. It would still count against their cap, but they no longer needed to pay him the full amount. Kovalchuk did collect $14M of his $18.8M, so he made out just fine.


6. Cal Petersen
 

Signed By:

Rob Blake

Position:

G

Date:

2021-09-22

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$15M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

5.0

0

0

0.00

0.000

“You can’t really choose the game that you face, so I was just trying to stop everything that came my way,”
Calvin Petersen had 54 games of NHL experience with a .916 career SV% when this contract was signed with one year remaining on his previous deal. In that regard, this belongs in the “Mikko Koskinen” family of contracts, similar money-term-experience. The Kings could have saved a lot of money by waiting for that previous pact to expire, as Cal posted a porous .895 SV% while waiting for his new bigger pay cheques.
 
There was some risk including Cal Petersen’s contract before it officially began, but he was terrible early in year one, earning himself a demotion to the AHL while this was waiting to be posted. It’s entirely plausible that he’ll recover and earn this contract, but it won't happen in the AHL. 
 
 
7. Mattias Norstrom
 

Signed By:

Dave Taylor

Position:

D

Date:

2006-03-06

Age July 1st:

34

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

25

Total Money:

$8.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$4.25M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

14.9

142

24

114

 

Per 82 GP

7.5

82

14

66

20.1

"I am really happy to be staying here with the Kings and excited about the direction we are headed. This organization is committed to winning and I am thrilled that they want me to continue to be apart of it."
Mattias Norstrom had been with the Kings for nearly a decade (only once eclipsing 20 PTS in a season) when he was scheduled to become a free agent in July 2006 at age 34. The Swedish defenseman had just scored a career high 27 PTS, but still should never have been paid nearly this much cash.
 
His tenure with the Kings would soon be at an end, as Dave Taylor (near the end of his reign) pulled off a fantastic trade with Dallas; moving Norstrom, a prospect, 3rd and 4th round draft picks to get Jaroslav Modry, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks. Modry was near the end of the road too, but eating the rest of it was a small price to pay for 1st and 2nd round picks. Norstrom retired from the NHL when this deal expired.
 
 
8. Matt Greene
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

D

Date:

2014-06-24

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$10M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

11.5

111

11

86

 

Per 82 GP

2.9

82

8

64

15.1

“Upon his arrival to Los Angeles he played a significant role in helping change the culture of the Kings and his contributions to our two Stanley Cups in particular is immeasurable.”
Matt Greene had been a warrior for the LA Kings during a very successful run when he needed a new contract in July 2014. The rugged defenseman had played in 504 career regular season games, throwing 1300 hits, blocking 818 shots. His body had endured a heavy load of punishment over his career and was already breaking down, missing giant chunks of the previous 2 seasons. But after helping the team win their 2nd Stanley Cup, he was due a reward for time served, banking a 4-year extension at age 31.
 
Greene would only have one more healthy 9-point season before he was conquered by the injury bug. In total he scored 11 PTS in 111 GP before the remaining term was bought out. I don’t offer injury exemptions from these lists when there was a prior injury history that should have warned the buyer beforehand.
 
 
9. Dan Cloutier
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

G

Date:

2006-09-27

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$6.2M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$3.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

4.8

9

2

3.44

0.887

"Some people were still worried about Dan's injuries and I tried to assure everyone that that wouldn't be an issue. I don't think he's injury-prone.”
The LA Kings traded a 2nd round pick to acquire Dan Cloutier in the summer of 2006, with one year remaining on his previous deal. The netminder had suffered a major injury that cost him most of the previous season, but Dean Lombardi was gambling that he would be able to fully recover and his best hockey was still ahead. Dean was wrong.
 
To make matters worse, Lombardi got Dan’s autograph on a new treaty before he ever played a regular season game in a Kings jersey. Waiting a little while longer would have saved him from a costly mistake. Dan’s first season in LA was a disaster, posting only 6 wins, 14 losses, with an .860 SV%. He would play 9 games for the Kings, eventually getting banished to their farm team and bought out. Dan played more AHL than NHL games on this contract. This was the end of his NHL career.
 
 
10. Alyn McCauley
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2006-07-02

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$6M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

9.9

10

1

4

 

Per 82 GP

3.3

82

8

33

9.7

"Alyn is a solid, two-way player whose competitiveness and leadership abilities make him a good fit for our hockey club"
Alyn McCauley scored a career high 20 goals and 47 PTS in 2004 before the lockout, earning himself a Selke trophy nomination. The center’s offensive output dropped in 2006, but more concerning was major knee surgery at season’s end. Dean Lombardi was eager to poach McCauley from his former team and signed him to a 3-year deal despite the injury issues. Doctors later found a new problem with the knee, requiring even more surgery.
 
Alyn was limited to 10 games scoring 1 point before Lombardi bought out the remainder of the contract. It was a costly mistake, but on the bright side McCauley did become a pro scout for the Kings, helping them win 2 Cups. Hard to say if the Kings failed to commit sufficient due diligence evaluating the status of McCauley’s knee, or if the new problem emerged after the fact. This contract would have been exempt due to injury had the Kings not known in advance that they were buying damaged goods.
 
 
11. Michal Handzus
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2007-07-02

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$16M

 

Playoff PTS:

7

Cap Hit:       

$4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

23.7

327

135

443

 

Per 82 GP

5.9

82

34

111

17.4

"Michal might not be the sexy name, so to speak. People who know hockey really appreciate this guy. He's a pro's pro."
Michal Handzus had been a 40-50 point center for most of his career, but only played 8 games the previous season recovering from a torn ACL. Despite his health status, as a 6’5 center, there was certainly demand for his services. The 30-year-old inked his ticket on the same day that Tom Preissing, Ladislav Nagy, and Kyle Calder came to town, 2 of whom made this list (with Nagy being a runner-up). Talk about a bad day.
 
Handzus did produce two “decent” seasons but would average 34 PTS per 82 GP over the full span and ultimately was paid $2M too much per year (adjusted for cap inflation). Not a terrible contract, but overpaid enough to crack this list.
 
  
12. Kyle Calder
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2007-07-02

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$5.4M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.7M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

8.4

139

47

163

 

Per 82 GP

4.2

82

28

96

13.1

“Ideally, you go in there and you’ve got a few holes to fill that you can really pinpoint. That’s where I’d like to be. I don’t like being a major player, but I felt at this stage of the franchise we had to be aggressive.”
Kyle Calder scored a career high 26 goals and 59 PTS in 2006, only to drop down to 35 PTS in 78 GP before becoming an unrestricted free agent at age 28. When Lombardi decided to extend him this offer, he was gambling that the downturn was just a blip. He was wrong. Calder’s decline was actually the beginning of a trend, but fortunately the GM only made a 2-year commitment.
 
The fact that the winger did not get a long-term offer showed a lack of faith in his ability to bounce back among NHL general managers. Scouts around the league had to be reporting to their bosses that Calder was in decline. The winger would score 47 PTS in 139 GP (28-point pace), which is not the production level they were paying for.
 
 
13. Rob Blake
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

D

Date:

2006-07-01

Age July 1st:

36

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$12M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.1

143

65

352

 

Per 82 GP

10.5

82

37

202

23.6

"Rob Blake is a special player and more importantly a special person. He belongs in a Kings uniform."
Rob Blake had played most of his career with the LA Kings before getting traded to the Colorado Avalanche in 2001. He would return to California in July 2006 as a free agent at the age of 36 after he had just registered a 51-point season with the Avs. The compensation was exorbitant, but the term was reasonable at just 2 years.
 
Father time finally started to catch up with Rob, as he posted his two worst offensive outputs in a decade, scoring 65 PTS in 143 GP with a -45.  This would not be the end of the road for Blake, as he would sign a 1-year deal with the San Jose Sharks when this expired. Blake would eventually replace Lombardi as General Manager, and I do believe this is the only example of a team’s future General Manager being on that franchise’s worst contracts list. Steve Yzerman’s last contract was a runner-up for Detroit’s list. Joe Sakic made the Colorado best list.
 
 
14. Patrick O’Sullivan
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2008-10-07

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$8.8M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.9M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

12.6

154

77

450

 

Per 82 GP

4.2

82

41

240

18.4

“We would have liked a little more and they would have liked a whole lot less, but everybody wants this done. Patrick is excited to get back on the ice.”
Patrick O’Sullivan scored an impressive 53 PTS in his first full NHL season at age 22, and signed a very reasonable bridge deal given the level of production. As fate would have it, Pat was not ascending to a greater apex, but rather was about to begin a descent in the opposite direction.
 
But there is a decidedly silver lining here for the Kings, as Lombardi managed a 3-way trade in year one that sent O’Sullivan to Edmonton with Justin “Mr Game 7” Williams coming to LA. This was a Stanley Cup winning trade that turned into a disaster for the Oilers, who would buyout the final year of Pat’s contract.  He was out of the league 2 years later.
 
 
15. Dustin Penner
 

Signed By:

Dean Lombardi

Position:

F

Date:

2012-07-01

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

1 year

 

Playoff GP:

18

Total Money:

$3.3M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$3.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

4.2

33

14

61

 

Per 82 GP

4.2

82

35

152

12.8

“Dustin is at the crossroads of his career. He can choose to use his athletic ability to either become a dominant power forward in the National Hockey League or be a dominant number four hitter for the El Cid Lounge in a men’s softball league, the choice is his.”
Dustin Penner won a Stanley Cup with the Kings in 2012 following a less than impressive 17-point season (with another 11 PTS in the playoffs). He made it to July 1st as an unrestricted free agent at age 29, and decided to return to play with his championship teammates. Surely he did receive other offers, some perhaps for more term and money, but the allure of enjoying the spoils of victory in Los Angeles a little bit longer had to be strong.
 
Dean Lombardi had called him out in the media a year earlier, challenging him either to become a dominant power forward or go play beer league softball. Dustin was free to pursue his softball career by 2014 when he played his last NHL game.


No comments:

Post a Comment