Thursday, January 5, 2023

Minnesota Wild 15 Worst Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.

My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 

Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.


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Their most successful deals are mostly uninspiring short-term bridges, struggling to hit home runs when attempting to swing for longer term. But that’s not for a lack of trying. Chuck Fletcher, GM for 9 seasons, was not shy to swing for the fences, but would suffer some painful strikeouts (especially between 2012-2014).
 
Chuck’s most famous strikeouts were Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, who each inked a massive 13-year treaty right before the NHL forced new rules that would make that type of deal illegal. On the bright side, the arrival of Parise-Suter did generate 6 consecutive seasons of playoff appearances, but the team never made it past the 2nd round.
 
 
1. Zach Parise
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2012-07-04

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

13 years

 

Playoff GP:

40

Total Money:

$98M

 

Playoff PTS:

34

Cap Hit:       

$7.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

107.2

558

400

1707

 

Per 82 GP

8.2

82

59

251

18.4

"These signings will resonate well with our fans, with our players and with everybody associated with the team"
Zach Parise experienced a production decline from 82 PTS in 2010, down to 69 PTS in 2012 before becoming an unrestricted free agent.  That did not cool demand for his services on the open market, as the New Jersey Devils advanced to the Stanley Cup finals in Parise’s last season with the team, thanks in large part to his outstanding play. The threat of another labour dispute and work stoppage hung over the league that summer, as Gary Bettman made it clear that the back-diving contract loophole would be closed in the next CBA. Parise and Ryan Suter were the hottest commodities available, and they teamed up to take their talents to Minnesota. Chuck Fletcher was willing to do whatever it took to land the duo.
 
Parise’s biggest problem was staying healthy, and has been productive in stretches, scoring at a 61-point pace over the first 8 seasons. The output sunk to its lowest point in year six at age 33 with 24 PTS in 42 GP, but he managed to bounce back with 28 goals and 61 PTS in 2019. Eventually the Wild bought him out and were hit with a massive cap recapture penalty that’s wildly unfair.
 
 
2. Ryan Suter
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

D

Date:

2012-07-04

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

13 years

 

Playoff GP:

46

Total Money:

$98M

 

Playoff PTS:

17

Cap Hit:       

$7.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

107.2

656

369

1225

 

Per 82 GP

8.2

82

46

153

27.0

"WE GOT ‘EM!"
There was a time in the summer of 2020 when I started to question whether or not the Ryan Suter contract was actually bad. He had mostly earned his cap hit for the first 8 seasons, and if the Wild could simply pull a Marian Hossa and figure out a way to stash him on LTIR when the backdive started to avoid cap recapture, this might not be bad at all. 

Unfortunately, that’s not what happened. Bill Guerin made the difficult decision of buying out both Parise and Suter in the same summer, levying a massive penalty against their salary cap. Suddenly this went from “there’s a way this might be okay” to full blown disaster. For whatever it’s worth, Suter mostly earned his cap hit for most of the active seasons.
 
 
3. Jason Pominville
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2013-10-02

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

21

Total Money:

$28M

 

Playoff PTS:

14

Cap Hit:       

$5.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

31.5

390

202

917

 

Per 82 GP

6.3

82

42

193

15.3

“When you see a team that’s heading in that direction, I mean, why wouldn’t you want to be here? We’re fortunate to get it done, and hopefully we can add some more pieces to the puzzle to make it even better.”
The Minnesota Wild paid a hefty price to acquire Jason Pominville from the Buffalo Sabres with 1 year remaining until he was due to become UFA, giving up Johan Larsson, a prospect, plus 1st and 2nd round picks. Jason never made it to market with Fletcher locking him into this extension months early, enticing him to stay by offering a generous 5-year term after Jason’s 30th birthday.
 
Pommer finished that season strong, even helping the Wild with 9 PTS in 13 playoff games. Year one of the contract saw a dip in his production, but still fell within an acceptable range, helping them win a playoff series. Afterwards is when the downturn started, at age 32 when he scored 36 PTS in 75 GP. By year four the Wild decided they’d had enough, dumping him back on the Sabres, where Pominville bottomed out and his career ended.
 
These are the pitfalls of giving a 5-year contract to a 31-year-old player.
 
 
4. Nick Schultz
 

Signed By:

Doug Risebrough

Position:

D

Date:

2008-02-23

Age July 1st:

25

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

2

Total Money:

$21M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$3.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

28.5

432

69

296

 

Per 82 GP

4.8

82

13

56

19.5

"He's been steady. He's been solid for us. He's been growing as a player, too. He's been playing much better"
Nick Schultz had never exceeded 15 PTS in a season when he signed this extension, a few months before he was set to become an unrestricted free agent. If Doug Risebrough wanted to retain the defenseman, he’d be forced to pay a UFA price, I’m just not convinced there was another team willing to go this high for this long.
 
There were no illusions of Schultz being an offensive player, yet he was compensated as though he scored 35 PTS. The first 3 years brought zero playoff games to Minnesota, prompting a shake-up that shipped Schultz off to Edmonton for Tom Gilbert. The Oilers later flipped him to Columbus for a 5th round pick. Schultz was -54 over the duration of this deal. His next contract would be for a fraction of this price.
 
 
5. Mark Parrish
 

Signed By:

Doug Risebrough

Position:

F

Date:

2006-07-01

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$13.25M

 

Playoff PTS:

1

Cap Hit:       

$2.65M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

20.7

142

69

236

 

Per 82 GP

4.1

82

40

136

14.6

"Make no mistake, our goal is to bring a championship to Minnesota"
Mark Parrish was a Minnesota boy who played at St. Cloud State. When he made his first foray into unrestricted free agency at age 29, he decided to make the journey home, accepting a 5-year deal on July 1st. Parrish had peaked at 60 PTS in 2002, but otherwise never topped 50 PTS in his career, scoring 49 PTS in 76 GP before reaching the open market.
 
If they held a homecoming parade to celebrate his triumphant return to Minnesota, that would have been the high point of this entire experience. The trend-line took a sharp downward turn right out of the starting block. Parrish saw his deployment plunge immediately upon arrival, dropping to 14.3 minutes per game from the 18.5 he played the previous season. He scored 39 PTS in year one, 30 PTS in year two, after which the Wild bought out the remaining 3 years.
 
 
6. Thomas Vanek
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2014-07-01

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

10

Total Money:

$19.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

4

Cap Hit:       

$6.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

22.6

154

93

317

 

Per 82 GP

7.5

82

50

169

15.9

"It's beyond my wildest dreams"
While Thomas Vanek was unquestionably overpaid on the infamous Kevin Lowe offer sheet, he still scored 209 goals over those 7 years. There was still demand for what he provided, mostly goals. When he was traded to the Islanders as a rental in 2014, he reportedly turned down a 7-year $50M contract offer from Garth Snow, citing concern about their arena situation (and saving Garth Snow from a terrible mistake). Vanek became an unrestricted free agent for the first time at age 30 after scoring 68 PTS in 78 GP. When July 1st came to pass, Vanek signed for 3 years $19.5M, a full $30M less than Snow’s offer. Minnesota was offering a similar salary, but only on a 3-year term.
 
Hard to say for certain whether or not Vanek received a higher offer on July 1st, or whether it was just “beyond my wildest dreams” to play in Minnesota. It’s entirely plausible that he exaggerated how badly he wanted to join the Wild so that he could justify to himself walking away from $30M. Granted, he already had a pile of money in his bank account at this stage, so it’s at least reasonably plausible that money was not the deciding factor.
 
Chuck Fletcher gambled that the Austrian would be able to maintain a 30-goal, 70-point type of production level for at least a few more seasons, and he was mistaken. The depreciation began on day one, dropping down to 41 PTS in 74 GP by year two, after which the final year was bought out. This certainly wasn’t the end of the road for the sniper, as he still had productive visits to Vancouver and Detroit in his future.
 
 
7. Niklas Backstrom
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

G

Date:

2013-06-24

Age July 1st:

35

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$10.25M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$3.4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

4.1

44

12

3.06

0.893

“Hopefully, this isn’t the last contract he signs with us.”
Niklas Backstrom had already passed his 35th birthday when Chuck Fletcher decided to give him a 3-year extension, days before he could have become UFA. Chuck should have let him walk. Each year of this contract became the new worst season of Backstrom’s NHL career, as he became a below average, over-priced back-up goalie.
 
In 3 seasons he played just 44 games with 12 Wins, 20 losses, a 3.06 GAA, .893 SV%, and a -24 goals allowed below average. By year three the Finn was traded to Calgary in a mutual salary dump for David Jones. When this concluded, Backstrom returned home to play in the Finnish Elite League.
 
 
8. Martin Havlat
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2009-07-01

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

8

Total Money:

$30M

 

Playoff PTS:

3

Cap Hit:       

$5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

39.4

278

183

655

 

Per 82 GP

6.6

82

54

193

17.1

"He is a terrific two-way player"
Martin Havlat struggled to stay healthy after the 2005 lockout, only playing 18, 56, and 35 games per season over a 3-year span. The good news for Marty was that he played a full 81 games in 2009 before becoming an unrestricted free agent, scoring 77 PTS, earning himself a lucrative long-term deal. The bad news, he never again came close to 77 PTS.
 
The first 2 years in Minnesota were quasi-decent, scoring above a 60-point pace, playing over 70 games both seasons. That’s when Chuck Fletcher decided to ship Havlat off to San Jose for Danny Heatley, a few months after Marty’s 30th birthday. It was not until Havlat arrived in San Jose that this investment took a dark turn. Over 3 years in San Jose, the winger never scored more 37 PTS and never played more than 48 games in a season (overall he scored at a 43-point pace in California).
 
Doug Wilson decided to buy out the final year in 2014, which he might have done earlier had Marty not been injured the previous summer (hint: you can’t but out an injured player). While the Sharks did bear the brunt of Havlat’s demise, it wasn’t much better for the Wild, as Danny took a similar nose dive after his 30th birthday too.
 
 
9. Kim Johnsson
 

Signed By:

Doug Risebrough

Position:

D

Date:

2006-07-01

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

10

Total Money:

$19.4M

 

Playoff PTS:

1

Cap Hit:       

$4.85M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

31.1

297

90

372

 

Per 82 GP

7.8

82

25

103

23.6

"I don't look at it as a different approach. That's just what the plan is. I don't think I would do it any other way. ... I knew at some point, this was going to happen."
For 3 years before the 2005 lockout, Kim Johnsson was a minute-eating defenseman and consistent offensive contributor in the 10-goal, 40-point range. The Swede was on pace for similar numbers in 2006 before a concussion ended his season prematurely. The injury did not deter Doug Risebrough from getting his autograph on a big-ticket July 1st, shortly after Kim’s 30th birthday.
 
Johnsson wasn’t exactly “bad” in Minnesota, the problem was that they were paying him like an elite power play quarterback, which he no longer was. This was like giving $7.7M to a defenseman worth $5M. He would have been a useful player at the right price, but that fee was incorrect. The final kick in the ass was Chuck Fletcher deciding to trade Johnsson to the Chicago Blackhawks for Cam Barker. Problem was, he also threw Nick Leddy into the deal, who went on to a successful career while Barker was out of the league 3 years later. You can find Wild bloggers who rate his among the worst trades in franchise history.
 
 
10. Jason Zucker
 

Signed By:

Paul Fenton

Position:

F

Date:

2018-07-25

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

11

Total Money:

$27.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$5.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

27.9

220

118

494

 

Per 82 GP

5.6

82

44

184

16.2

"We see Jason as being a big part of now and in the future."
Paul Fenton signed Jason Zucker to this 5-year treaty after a 33-goal, 64-point season. Given that stat line, Zucker was theoretically worth every penny. The problem was, he topped his previous career best be nearly 20 PTS and has not even come close to hitting that height again. Year one JZ was back to being a 40-point winger and Fenton’s ass got fired. 

The new GM Bill Guerin shipped him off to Pittsburgh in his first year on the job, where the Pens must have hoped Crosby or Malkin could tap that upside. The answer was no. For the first 2 years in Pittsburgh, Zucker produced at half the rate of his pay grade despite the greatness all around him. Guerin deserves praise for being able to dump this deal on his old team for Calen Addison and a first round pick.
 
 
11. Kyle Brodziak
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2012-02-19

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

27

Total Money:

$8.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

8

Cap Hit:       

$2.8M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

10.7

202

56

289

 

Per 82 GP

3.6

82

23

117

15.3

“I’m happy to be part of the organization for a few more years and looking forward to it.”
Kyle Brodziak was having by far the best season of his career as he on a collision course with unrestricted free agency in 2012, peaking with perfect timing. Chuck Fletcher managed to get his autograph on an extension prior to the trade deadline. The Wild more than doubled Brodziak’s salary from his previous contract and were rewarded with about half as much production.
 
The center saw his ice time drop significantly in each of these three seasons while mostly scoring at a 20-point pace. The good news for Minnesota was that they made the playoffs each of these seasons, advancing to the 2nd round twice. Kyle’s final stat line (including playoffs) was 229 GP, 64 PTS, with a -29.
 
 
12. Manny Fernandez
 

Signed By:

Doug Risebrough

Position:

G

Date:

2006-03-03

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$13M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$4.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

7.2

76

40

2.65

0.907

“I definitely have worked really hard in practice. I’ve tried to get my focus back, so we’ll see what that will lead to”
Manny Fernandez was sensational in 2006, finishing 5th in the NHL in goals saved above average during an offensive explosion courtesy of the obstruction crackdown. Unfortunately, he would never be nearly that good ever again. The term was relatively small, but the salary put him in the 10 highest paid goalies in the league.
 
In year one of this contract, Fernandez was supplanted by Niklas Backstrom as the team’s best goaltender. Still, his value was high enough that the Bruins were willing to trade a prospect and a 4th round draft pick to acquire the 32-year-old. He was never anything more than overpaid back-up for the Bruins.
 
 
13. Matt Cooke
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2013-07-05

Age July 1st:

34

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$7.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$2.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

9.1

111

38

128

 

Per 82 GP

3.0

82

28

95

14.7

“I just think Matt is, to be honest with you, an ideal third-line left winger. For our team right now, we’re in the process of learning how to win, of how to become a better team. Players like Matt bring different dimensions. But he has become a really good two-way hockey player”
It’s hard to say what Chuck Fletcher saw in Matt Cooke that he felt warranted this much money and term. Cookie scored a career high 19 goals for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2012 at age 33, scoring this contract one year later. If Chuck thought he was getting a 20-goal scorer, he miscalculated.
 
The cheap-shot artist scored 14 goals and 43 PTS in 124 games for the Minnesota Wild (including playoffs) before being bought out. 85% of contracts awarded to players of this age in the salary cap era have been 2 years or less. Had this just been a 1-year term, it would have been over-priced, but defensible. This marked the end of Matt Cooke’s professional career.
 
 
14. Jared Spurgeon
 

Signed By:

Bill Guerin

Position:

D

Date:

2019-09-14

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

7 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$53M

 

Playoff PTS:

6

Cap Hit:       

$7.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

53.2

119

65

210

 

Per 82 GP

7.6

82

45

145

21.6

“We love Jared. He's a homegrown guy. He's been here for his whole career and we want him to be here his whole career.”
The problem with including Jared Spurgeon’s current contract on this list is that it has not officially turned bad. Even at age 32 he’s still playing at the level of a $6M D-man. Two years into a 7-year contract, Spurgeon is more “overpaid” than “financial calamity”, but he raises a lot of red flags when I run the numbers into career modelling to project the remaining term. In my worst NHL contract polling in 2021 and 2022, Spurgeon solicited a significant number of votes, cracking the top 15 in 2021 when he scored at a 38-point pace. 

He suffered an injury in 2022, but elevated his scoring rate to 50 PTS per 82 GP. He was demoted to the “I’ve got my eye on you” section of my 2022 worst contracts list. The jury is still out on how bad this is, it may climb the list in future years, or get dropped off completely. It’s not impossible for this type of defenseman to age well.
 
 
15. Niklas Backstrom
 

Signed By:

Doug Risebrough

Position:

G

Date:

2009-03-03

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$24M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

8.1

199

91

2.59

0.911

"I have improved my game a lot during these two-and-a-half years here, and think I can be better in the future"
Niklas Backstrom was sensational in 2009, earning himself a Vezina Trophy nomination after posting 37 wins, a .923 SV% and 28 goals saved above average. In March of that season, Risebrough signed him to this 4-year extension a month after his 31st birthday. The following year, the Finnish gatekeeper went from substantially above average, to significantly below (.903 SV%, -13 goals allowed below average).
 
Backstrom’s games played total shrank each of these 4 seasons, splitting starting duties by year three while he was the 5th highest paid goalie in the league. While he did rebound from a bad 1st year to finish with a .911 SV% over the whole span of the deal, he was overpaid by about $3.5M per season (adjusted for cap inflation), like paying $8M for a goalie worth $4.5M. Maybe not terrible, but not good either.

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