Friday, January 27, 2023

Philadelphia Flyers 15 Best Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here. One thing you won't find here are entry level contracts because they all come from the same cookie cutter and require less skill at the negotiating table.

My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 

Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.


----------------------------

Paul Holmgren was General Manager of the Philadelphia Flyers for 8 seasons, and by far had the most success of all 4 men who held that position in the salary cap era, making the playoffs 6 times, winning 7 series (including a trip to the Stanley Cup final). Eventually Holmgren was fired, and if you’d like to know why, you’ll have to wait for the Flyers worst contracts list to be published.
 
While Holmgren was the most successful, Ron Hextall did hit 2 of the biggest home runs on the Flyers list, especially Sean Couturier, who ranks in the top 25 of the last 15 years. If we measured contract success solely by Stanley Cup championships, credit Holmgren for the long-term deals given to Jeff Carter and Mike Richards, who collected 4 titles between them for the Philadelphia Flyers Los Angeles Kings. Originally I wanted to put them on the Kings best list, but they were signed in Philadelphia, so here they are. 
 
 
1. Sean Couturier
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2015-07-28

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

17

Total Money:

$26M

 

Playoff PTS:

16

Cap Hit:       

$4.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

27.3

371

303

954

 

Per 82 GP

4.6

82

67

211

20.4

"I'm really looking forward to come in camp and try to take another step forward. I'm not going to change as a player, as a person. I'm going to be the same type of player, just definitely try to produce a little bit more offensively."
Sean Couturier had never surpassed 39 PTS in a season over a 4-year career when this agreement was reached. This was nearly a carbon copy of the Wayne Simmonds contract from 3 years earlier, but for marginally more money. Craig Smith in Nashville had also inked a similar pact 8 days before Sean.
 
Ron Hextall gambled that the kid had a bright future, offering him 6-years at about $600K more than a 39-point center should make in annual salary. The offer had to be significantly more than what Sean and his agent were expecting that they were willing to forfeit 2 years of unrestricted free agency.
 
In year one the center scored 34 PTS in 66 GP. By year two he scored 76 PTS in 82 GP and was a contender for the Selke trophy (an award he would win in 2020).  Couturier was among the biggest bargains in the league for most of this contract.
 
 
2. Claude Giroux
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2010-11-08

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

17

Total Money:

$11.3M

 

Playoff PTS:

23

Cap Hit:       

$3.8M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

14.4

207

227

602

 

Per 82 GP

4.8

82

90

238

21.0

"I'm really excited to be with the Flyers organization for three more years. We are going to be a very good team, hopefully for many years.”
Paul Holmgren astutely offered Claude Giroux an extension in November, 8 months before he needed a new deal. The young center had scored 47 PTS in his sophomore season, and accepted terms that you’d expect from a 47-point pivot. The gamble paid off for Holmgren, as Giroux finished that season with 76 PTS and would have been much more costly if signed in June.
 
This is a textbook example of paying a breakout star right as he’s about to blast off. Giroux went on to score 90 PTS per 82 GP over 3 seasons, for the 2023 equivalent of $4.8M AAV. Even though he was criminally underpaid, Claude won’t be running out of money anytime soon, as he made up for it on his next ticket.
 
 
3. Brayden Schenn
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2016-07-25

Age July 1st:

24

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

32

Total Money:

$20.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

15

Cap Hit:       

$5.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.9

304

238

685

 

Per 82 GP

5.5

82

64

185

18.7

"This deal came along and we really like the draft next year. We like the late pick this year and Jori. It made sense and we got a couple more young players."
Brayden Schenn scored 26 goals and 59 PTS before the expiration of his previous treaty, and Hextall gave him a very fair wage given his level of production.  This was a shorter, more expensive version of the Vincent Trocheck deal from earlier that same month.
 
This investment paid lofty dividends as Brayden won the Stanley Cup with the Philadelphia Flyers St. Louis Blues, who rewarded him with a generous 8-year extension that didn't even start counting down until after his 30th birthday (potential disaster waiting to happen). It wasn’t all bad for Philly though, as they obtained a pair of 1st round picks for trading Schenn that turned into Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee, two budding prospects with bright futures.
 
 
4. Jeff Carter
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2010-11-13

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

11 years

 

Playoff GP:

86

Total Money:

$58M

 

Playoff PTS:

63

Cap Hit:       

$5.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

2

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

65.9

709

464

2078

 

Per 82 GP

6.0

82

54

240

18.0

“It was never hostile at any point, it just took time to get done. I think some other issues in the league made us think about different ways of doing this -- number of years, custodial stuff."
Jeff Carter had already scored over 150 goals in the NHL when he signed this extension at age 25. The amount of term given to a player who had a reputation for partying raised some eyebrows when this agreement was reached. Clearly that concern was overblown, as Carter would go on to win a pair of Stanley Cups with the Philadelphia Flyers LA Kings.
 
There is no disputing that this was a superb investment, sadly it was another team who collected the dividends. The center was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Jakub Voracek before it even officially started. I wanted to put this one on the LA Kings best contracts list because it helped them win 2 Stanley Cups, unfortunately I couldn’t because the contract was signed by the Flyers.
 
 
5. Mike Richards
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2007-12-13

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

12 years

 

Playoff GP:

101

Total Money:

$69M

 

Playoff PTS:

72

Cap Hit:       

$5.8M

 

Stanley Cups:

2

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

85.0

499

341

1132

 

Per 82 GP

7.1

82

56

186

18.4

“I want to be here, I love the city, I love the organization and when I was given the opportunity I was excited to be here over the next twelve years”
The template for the Jeff Carter contract was established 3 years earlier with this 12-year extension bequeathed to Mike Richards. Garth Snow was the first GM to think outside the box with a ridiculous term, giving Rick DiPietro 15 years to shrink the average cap hit. The next was Richards one year afterwards. The back-diving trick wasn’t developed until Vincent Lecavalier in 2008.
 
Unlike Carter, Mike was not traded before the deal started, but the similarity is obvious, both eventually won a pair of Stanley Cups for the Philadelphia Flyers LA Kings. Richards does own one rare distinction, as the only buyout on any of my best contracts lists.
 
His play had eroded considerably well before turning 30, and the hard-partying lifestyle may have been a contributing factor. Either way, Philly Kings fans could care less, as they reaped enormous benefits from this venture. The Flyers did benefit too, adding Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn (who himself helped the Flyers Blues win a Cup) in the Richards trade.
 
 
6. Jakub Voracek
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2012-07-26

Age July 1st:

22

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$17M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$4.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

20.9

285

244

798

 

Per 82 GP

5.2

82

70

230

18.0

"The season I had last year was pretty successful and I know if I work hard, which is what I've been doing all summer, I can get better and better"
Jakub Voracek had been hovering around the 50-point mark for the previous 3 seasons, which for his historical comparables, was most likely to produce a 3-year contract near $4M AAV. The Flyers paid a slight premium to buy one of his UFA seasons and were rewarded for their faith in his talent. Kris Versteeg had forged an almost identical treaty 3 days earlier in Florida.
 
It was during the lockout shortened 2013 campaign that the Czech winger finally broke out to the next level, scoring 46 PTS in 48 GP. Over the full span, Jakub scored 70 PTS per 82 GP, producing like a $6.5M player for an average adjusted cap hit of $5.2M, multiplied by 4. He banked a whopping $57.8M when this expired (which you won’t find on this list).
 
 
7. Jeff Carter
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2008-06-19

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

24

Total Money:

$15M

 

Playoff PTS:

10

Cap Hit:       

$5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.5

236

211

996

 

Per 82 GP

7.2

82

73

346

19.5

"Jeff is a terrific young player who has come up through our organization, and we believe he is only going to get better. It is a priority for us to keep our young core of players intact.”
Jeff Carter earned this allotment by scoring 29 goals and 53 PTS in the final year of his ELC. It was a shorter, more expensive version of the offer sheet that Dustin Penner signed in Edmonton the previous summer. The price was slightly above book, which was irrelevant because his output immediately increased dramatically, scoring 46 goals and 85 PTS in year one.
 
Unfortunately, that turned out to be the best season of Carter’s entire career, but he was still over 30 goals and 60 PTS for years two and three. The average adjusted cap hit might have been $7.1M, but he also scored 40 goals and 73 PTS per 82 GP. It wasn’t cheap, but well worth what it cost.
 
 
8. Ivan Provorov
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

D

Date:

2019-09-12

Age July 1st:

22

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$40.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

7

Cap Hit:       

$6.75M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

40.7

204

93

446

 

Per 82 GP

6.8

82

37

179

24.9

"Over the course of his young career, he has developed into one of the top young defensemen in the NHL. His commitment to the game and his teammates is second to none. He will be an important part of our success for years to come."
Ivan Provorov did not miss a single game on his ELC, playing 246 matches and scoring 97 PTS (a 32-point pace). This was finalized 3 days after his closest comparable Zach Werenski signed a 3-year pact at $5M AAV, with Werenski arguably being the higher upside defenseman offensively. Provorov still managed to earn significantly more money and term, the difference being that Ivan had to forfeit 2 years of unrestricted free agency, while Zach had the option of fast tracking to his prime earnings window.
 
There had been rumblings that Provorov had been seeking an 8-year deal at $8M AAV, so this can superficially be considered a victory for Philly. My inclusion of Provorov on this list does presume that his best years are still ahead of him, though admittedly I am giving him credit for something he hasn’t achieved yet. But based on year one, this deal might rank even higher on future versions of this list.
 
 
9. Wayne Simmonds
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2012-08-16

Age July 1st:

24

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

21

Total Money:

$23.9M

 

Playoff PTS:

9

Cap Hit:       

$4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

27.4

474

300

1183

 

Per 82 GP

4.6

82

52

205

17.3

"I signed this extension just hoping that we could bring a Stanley Cup to Philadelphia. I just want to be another piece of the puzzle. I think we have a great young core put in place. Obviously this is where I want to be for a long time."
Wayne Simmonds arrived in Philly as part of the Mike Richards trade, bringing a valuable mix of skill and physicality to the Broadstreet Bullies. The power forward was 2 years away from unrestricted free agency when he signed this long-term deal and had been scoring at a rate of 28 goals and 52 PTS per 82 GP over the previous 2 seasons. It was a longer, cheaper version of what Jakub Voracek signed 3 weeks earlier.
 
Over the next 4 seasons, his average stat line was 30 goals, 56 PTS, 212 shots, and 163 hits at an average adjusted cap hit of $4.6M. Age 29 was where the output started to decline, dropping to 17 goals and 31 PTS in the final season at age 30, when the Flyers traded him to Nashville as a rental for Ryan Hartman and a 4th round pick.
 
By the time he was eligible to test the UFA market, Simmonds had completely missed his prime earnings window and was unable to procure any sort of long-term offer, settling for 1 year $5M from New Jersey.
 
 
10. James van Riemsdyk
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2011-08-30

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

20

Total Money:

$25.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

14

Cap Hit:       

$4.25M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

30.4

413

294

1282

 

Per 82 GP

5.1

82

58

255

17.9

"And again, we value homegrown players, players that have the Flyers logo embedded in them, and James is one of those guys, so we feel very good about this."
JVR peaked at 40 PTS on his ELC and signed this extension with Philly 10 months before it expired. The Flyers may have regretted that decision after he went on to have an uninspiring season with 24 PTS in 43 GP, prompting a trade to the Leafs for Luke Schenn before the new deal had even begun.
 
His arrival in Toronto marked the turning point in his career, as his ice time per game jumped by 4 minutes with the Leafs using him on the top line. JVR rewarded them, scoring at a 31-goal, 58-point clip over the next 6 seasons. That trade turned out to be a terrible transaction for the Flyers, as Schenn turned into a dud, while JVR evolved into a dangerous scorer.
 
James played 413 games, scoring 154 Goals and 294 PTS. When this expired, the big winger returned to Philadelphia, which you can read about on the Flyers worst contracts list.
 
 
11. Brayden Schenn
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2014-06-23

Age July 1st:

22

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$5M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$2.25M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

5.9

162

106

334

 

Per 82 GP

2.9

82

54

169

17.0

"It's a deal that both sides feel comfortable with. In terms of fitting the Flyers from where they're at in relation to the cap and for Brayden, setting him up in terms of continuing to develop and finding out where he can get to as a player."
Brayden Schenn had just completed a 41-point campaign to end his ELC when he autographed this bridge deal for $1M less than that productivity should have been worth. He lacked arbitration rights, and chose to sign in June instead of fighting to squeeze his fair value from Hextall. This treaty was a carbon copy of the document signed by Alex Killorn 4 days earlier following an identical 41-point performance.
 
The young center’s scoring output increased each of these 2 seasons (47 and 59 PTS), where he performed like a $5M player getting paid $2.9M. This was arguably a bigger bargain than the contract that followed, but that one ranked higher on this list because it delivered a Stanley Cup to Philadelphia St. Louis.
 
 
12. Sean Couturier
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2013-07-20

Age July 1st:

21

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

1

Total Money:

$3.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$1.75M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

4.1

145

76

267

 

Per 82 GP

2.1

82

43

151

18.5

"We rely a lot on Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier, they both played significant minutes this year. They probably had similar years than they had last year in terms of numbers if you prorate it, but obviously when you're playing those minutes maybe you expect a little more. Maybe our expectations were a little bit too high for those young guys. I think they're both good young players; they're going to continue to grow and get better. Sometimes you can't speed up that process no matter what you do. You just have to let time take care of it."
Paul Holmgren didn’t need to play hardball to convince Sean Couturier to accept this bridge deal. Sean was so excited by the offer that he signed it a year before his ELC expired (Mikael Backlund signed a very similar deal 10 days earlier). Couturier had only scored 42 PTS in his first 123 GP, and had not yet fully developed the offensive component of his game.
 
That offensive evolution began before this agreement even started, as the young center scored 39 PTS in the final year of his ELC, producing numbers that should have warranted a salary twice as large. The Flyers somehow managed to follow this up with an even bigger bargain as he grew to become a Selke trophy winner.
 
 
13. Claude Giroux
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2013-07-04

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

8 years

 

Playoff GP:

35

Total Money:

$66.2M

 

Playoff PTS:

20

Cap Hit:       

$8.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

71.6

603

546

1663

 

Per 82 GP

9.0

82

74

226

19.9

"We think the world of Claude. We think he's one of the top players in our game. To have him go into this season on the last year of his current deal, it's risky for both sides. I think Claude is going to have a great year. It's a huge commitment on our part but we believe Claude is worthy of it."
Claude Giroux had already established himself as one of the NHL’s premiere point producers and was 1 year away from UFA eligibility, where he could have potentially landed himself an even bigger bag of dough. The Flyers had to pay him the UFA rate or risk losing their best forward.
 
After scoring 86 PTS in the final year of his previous deal, Giroux dropped down to 73 PTS in year one of this venture. That decline persisted, tumbling to 67 PTS in year two and 58 PTS in year three, at which time this was beginning to look like a regretful investment that belonged on the Flyers worst contracts list.
 
Then in year four (2017/18) at age 29, something magical happened. Claude jumped from 58 PTS all the way up to 102 PTS as he was turning 30 years old, setting a new career high when the outlook had seemed perilous. He departed for Ottawa when this expired.
 
 
14. Matt Read
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2011-03-23

Age July 1st:

25

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

18

Total Money:

$2.7M

 

Playoff PTS:

8

Cap Hit:       

$900K

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

3.5

196

111

378

 

Per 82 GP

1.2

82

46

158

17.9

"I knew when the Flyers gave him a non-entry level deal at about $1-million a year right out of college that he would be a player for them. I also got a very strong indication from Laviolette just prior to the season that he would play a lot in a lot of different roles and be used in all situations on all lines.”
Matt Read was an undrafted college free agent after a successful career at Bemiji State and decided to sign a 3-year contract with Philly after an 11-game stint for the Flyers affiliate. Read entered year one with lofty expectations after he was Bob MacKenzie’s pick to win the Calder trophy as rookie of the year in 2012, a feat he failed to accomplish despite a reasonably successful 24-goal, 47-point campaign (in hindsight Bob should have chosen Landeskog).
 
Over these 3 seasons, Read averaged 24 goals, 46 PTS, and 17.9 ATOI per 82 GP, performing like a $4M player for 25 cents on the dollar. Read could have gone UFA after this was complete, but opted instead to return to Philadelphia with a 4-year extension that you can read about on the Flyers worst contracts list.
 
 
15. Travis Konecny
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2019-09-16

Age July 1st:

22

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$33M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$5.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

33.2

195

147

461

 

Per 82 GP

5.5

82

62

194

16.9

"Travis has shown progression in each of his three seasons and is an integral part of our group of young forwards. His speed, skill and tenacity sets him apart in today's NHL."
In the final year of his ELC, Travis Konecny scored 49 PTS while averaging 15.3 minutes of ice time per game. A winger with that stat line should expect in the neighborhood of $4M per season, probably even less than that if it’s a restricted free agent with no arbitration rights. Travis no doubt jumped at the opportunity to make $5.5M per season, even if it meant surrendering 2 years of unrestricted free agency.
 
The investment immediately paid dividends, as Konecny scored at a 76-point rate in year one at age 22, a stat line worth approximately $6.5M. In less than a year he went from possibly being $1.5M overpaid to being $1M underpaid.


No comments:

Post a Comment