2022/23 NHL Week 19 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 19 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 18 Betting Report.
 
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My Weekly Profit: $712
My Season Profit: $16,447
 
Welcome to day one of the fourth quarter, as the NHL schedule passes the proverbial “quarter pole” rounding the corner into the final stretch. This week will also feature the NHL trade deadline, as more talent continues the migration from the bottom half to the top half of the standings. There was a flurry of trades over the weekend as the exodus of talent from the bottom half of the league continues…and by bottom half of the league, I’m referring to the Western Conference. Note to self: a win in the west is less than a win vs the east.
 
You’d think with the deals we’ve already seen that it would provide a boom for betting favorites, but that’s not materializing quite yet. This was actually the second best week of the entire season to bet underdogs, which intuitively feels like they should be struggling. It should probably be noted that home underdogs were actually a net loser, and all those remarkable gains were attained by road dogs. If you bet $100 on every visitor moneyline, you banked $1,411. Road favorites did generate a small gain in a terrible week for all levels of home team.
 
A big driver of that underdog demographic was longshots of +200 or higher, as we continued to see great line value betting against heavy favorites. Granted, half of all the money they produced came from the Anaheim Ducks +350 vs Carolina and +215 vs Washington. Chicago also upset Dallas as a +360 underdog and Montreal stunned New Jersey as a +290 dog. I did bet the dog in 3 of those 4 games, which was more than enough to cover my losses on the Dallas game. Longshots moneyline is one of the big winners of the 3rd quarter, which will detailed further in my upcoming Quarterly Report.
 
Anaheim, Montreal, and Chicago went a combined 7-3 and if you bet $100 on the moneyline for them to win every game, you banked $1,465. The Habs also returned $850 on the puckline -1.5 goals. The tanking Blackhawks who benched Patrick Kane for trade reasons went undefeated this week, as they were my third best team to bet on, and my 2nd worst team to bet against. I had already bet them to beat San Jose when it was announced that Kane would be sitting, and they pulled off the victory anyway. The Hawks also traded McCabe and Lafferty this morning.
 
It certainly didn’t help favorites that the Rangers, Capitals, Kraken, Kings, Flames, Jets, Knights went a combined 6-20 (granted they weren't all favored in every match). I had a really bad week betting 3 of those teams (Winnipeg, New York, LA), but was very effective picking the outcomes for Washington and Vegas. The Rangers specifically continue creating problems for me, as they sit dead last in my Power Rankings. They are my worst team this season, whether betting them to win or lose, reaching a level where it feels like my choices affect the outcome of games. If Ranger fans want to send me money, I’ll bet their opponent every game…
 
What’s strange is that longshots moneyline and heavy favorites moneyline were both among my best categories, despite those big faves being a bad category overall. Digging deeper into the results, there was a very high proportion of games vs heavy favorites and longshots that were on short rest, with the tired team losing most of them. That happens to be the source of my success betting both categories on the moneyline, because of how aggressively I’m shorting back-to-backs. If not for these matches, it would have been a brutal week for shorting tired teams.
 
It was a rough ride betting against back-to-backs Monday to Friday, at least until the Ducks upset the Hurricanes Saturday. By the end of the week you would have made a small profit shorting back-to-backs on the moneyline, but you would have lost money on the puckline -1.5 goals. Of course that occurred immediately after I noted the outstanding success of this category in my report last week. This wouldn’t be the first time that a trend abruptly shifted in the opposite direction right after I called attention to the outstanding performance, but I’m hoping this week was just a blip in the radar.
 
My 3^rd Quarterly Report is already at 10,000 words and will be ready in the next 7-10 days. There are some very interesting conclusions and results, I’m just not sure how any of these trends will sustain in the aftermath of the trade deadline. If the New York Rangers do indeed land Patrick Kane, then you can guarantee their line prices are going to become prohibitively expensive. I need to start focusing my strategy more on east beating the west, rather than favorite vs dog. My current algorithms don’t account for a western win being worth less. An adjustment may be required.
 
 

My Week 19 Results

 
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

My over/under hot streak came to a close as goal scoring decreased and overs struggled. Oddsmakers set higher totals to account for the fact that scoring had been trending up, with several set more at 7 goals. From Jan 1 to Feb 19, there were only 4 games with an O/U total that opened at 7, and there were 7 this week. Almost twice as many this week as the previous 6 weeks. Higher totals and fewer goals hurt overs, but I’m not discouraged. There were a few bad beats in there, with some low scoring games by some previously high scoring teams.
 
The average total has been creeping a little bit higher for the last 3 weeks, as oddsmakers are either anticipating a scoring increase, or are reacting to the public disproportionately betting overs. Some people never bet unders because it’s no fun to be sad when goals are scored, but my only preference is whatever the algorithm is recommending. My feelings don’t play a factor. I’m not concerned about the rising totals, as it just means my algorithm will recommend more unders if the public continues pushing the prices higher.
 
Speaking of my algorithm, it went 18-19 on the games it like by at least 0.25 goals, and 5-7 on the others. There were only 4 games where I “overruled” the algorithm’s preference, going 3-1. Perhaps it would be prudent to make a separate wager for every game that’s purely my gut instinct from investigating game logs, measure my instinct vs the mathematical equation. I’m doing well on my overruling judgment calls, but possibly because there aren’t very many of them. If that were expanded on a larger scale, it’s unlikely to replicate the same success rate.
 
There were a few teams responsible for my bad week, starting with the Islanders and Jets, which is no coincidence considering they played each other twice. The Islanders had a 5-game stretch containing 4 matches with at least 7 goals (including one that was 11), then followed that with 3 consecutive unders. That pushed the recommendation for the Jets games to over, and both went under. Similarly, the Carolina Hurricanes had a 5-game stretch that contained 3 matches with 8 or more goals scored, which was followed by 4 consecutive unders.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Philadelphia Flyers, +$1,081
 
The Philadelphia Flyers went 1-3, with me betting the correct outcome in all 4 matches (also going 3-1 on their over/under). Philly was forced to play twice on short rest, losing both by at least 2 goals. They were my one success story where it paid off to be shorting back-to-backs on the puckline. I might have bet the Flyers in those games if they weren’t back-to-backs (as was written in my game notes), but they also could have performed better if they weren’t tired. Their overs went 3-1, in large part because the goaltending struggled. They also scored 2 or fewer goals 3 times, having recently lost their best offensive weapon Travis Konecny to injury.
 
The Anaheim Ducks were my second best team of the week, thanks in large part to their victory against Carolina. Yes I’m currently a passenger on the Canes bandwagon, but they played the night before. The Ducks opened at +350 dogs and closed at +400. My money was on Anaheim, because getting +350 against a tired team (even one as good as the Hurricanes) was just too tempting to pass up. I also bet the Ducks to beat Washington, and cashed a nice $500 bet on the Tampa puckline when Anaheim was tired from playing the night before.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Winnipeg Jets, -$1,200
 
This was an awful week for me picking the outcome of Winnipeg Jets games. It started when they pulled off a big upset of the New York Rangers on short rest, thanks to 50-save performance by Connor Hellebuyck (accounting for nearly half my money lost on Jets games), then they followed that up by losing to the struggling Islanders. They lost again at home to Colorado on Saturday, where my wager was Winnipeg because Cale Makar was in concussion protocol. They played those same Islanders again on Sunday, I bet Jets again because there was good line value on home ice. Isles won.
 
You should be able to guess my second worst team of the week, those New York Islanders. In my own defense, they had lost 4 of 5 games when they lost their best offensive play driver Matt Barzal to injury. That’s plenty reason to become more pessimistic. Well they went 3-1 without him this week. The only game I bet them to win was the game they lost, because they were unable to beat a tired LA team with Jonathan Quick in goal. As previously mentioned, the Isles and Jets were my two worst over/under teams, as there was strong covariance there.
 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 19:                 Overall Best Market Bets of Week 19:
 
1) Longshots moneyline: +$1,174                        1) Road moneyline: +$1,411
2) Road underdog moneyline: +$1,155                2) Longshots moneyline: +$955
3) Heavy favorites moneyline: +$609                  3) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: +$857
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 19:              Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 19:
 
1) Home moneyline: -$417                                  1) Home favorites -1.5 goals: -$1,491
2) Shorting back-to-backs -1.5 goals: -$389        2) Home moneyline: -$1,077
3) Over: -$250                                                      3) Favorites +1.5 goals: -$535
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 19:             Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                          ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Boston Bruins: +$775                                        1) Montreal Canadiens: +$1,230
2) Anaheim Ducks: +$572                                     2) Anaheim Ducks: +$837
3) Chicago Blackhawks: +$495                             3) Chicago Blackhawks: +$752
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 19
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) New York Rangers, -$500
2) Los Angeles Kings, -$450
3) Dallas Stars, -$400
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 19:      Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                          ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Philadelphia Flyers, +$715                                1) Washington Capitals: +$1,300
2) Washington Capitals, +$532                              2) New York Rangers: +$1,197
3) St. Louis Blues, +$457                                       3) Seattle Kraken: +$715
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 19:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Winnipeg Jets, -$500
2) Chicago Blackhawks, -$500
3) Colorado Avalanche, -$350
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 19:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Minnesota under, +$357
2) Islanders under, +$291
3) New Jersey over, +$287
 

Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Power Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.