Thursday, February 2, 2023

Pittsburgh Penguins 15 Worst Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.
 
My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 
 
Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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My rule that Stanley Cup champions are disqualified from having bad contracts (at least the deals they were under at the moment of victory) created some challenges, especially with the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Crosby-Malkin dynasty has been a stunning success, to the point where players who had extended stays and DID NOT win a title could almost be considered bad investments for no other reason.
 
That might be a ridiculous standard to set, but Ron Hainsey, Trevor Daley, Olli Maatta, and Mark Streit, proved in 2017 that the generational talents can win titles with subpar pieces around them. Ergo, if you played with them and did not win, something must be wrong with you. That’s my theory anyway. Otherwise their worst contracts list would have been impossible to build.
 
A majority of the deals on this list were signed after their last championship in 2017. I desperately needed them to get knocked out of the 2020 Covid Cup, or this list would have been decimated beyond repair. The team missed the playoffs altogether, as the window may have already closed on one of the finest dynasties in the modern age.
 
 
1. Rob Scuderi
 

Signed By:

Ray Shero

Position:

D

Date:

2013-07-05

Age July 1st:

34

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

23

Total Money:

$13.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$3.4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

16.1

198

24

115

 

Per 82 GP

4.0

82

10

48

18.0

“Let’s face it, I’m a plug. I play good defence, I’m going to move the puck tape-to-tape when I can, and when I don’t have an opportunity to, I’m going to put the puck in the safest areas. It’s not the prettiest thing in the world, everyone knows that. But it can be effective.”
Rob Scuderi defected from the Pittsburgh Penguins a few weeks after winning the Stanley Cup in 2009, to join the LA Kings. While he was gone, the Pens struggled in the playoffs and LA won a championship. So Ray Shero can be forgiven for being eager to get Scuderi back on the roster when he returned to free agency. Unfortunately, at this point he was a year too old and it wasn’t long before he simply was no longer good enough to play D in the NHL.
 
After two failed playoffs with both Crosby and Malkin healthy, Jim Rutherford somehow managed to dump this turd on the Chicago Blackhawks, in one of the worst trades of Stan Bowman’s GM career (as an aside; for a GM with 3 Stanley Cup rings, Stan Bowman has a surprising number of bad trades on his resume). Bowman did flip him back to Los Angeles for the last year of Christian Ehrhoff. The Kings allowed Scuderi to play out the last season in the AHL.
 
 
2. Jack Johnson
 

Signed By:

Jim Rutherford

Position:

D

Date:

2018-07-01

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

3

Total Money:

$16.25M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$3.25M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

16.5

149

24

149

 

Per 82 GP

3.3

82

13

82

19.4

“I've been really wanting to be part of a winning culture and a place where the expectations to win are as high as they could be."
 
“He was a healthy scratch at the end of the season. I know the reason why. It wasn't because of how he was playing."
 
"No one wishes anything bad to happen to him and his family. We wish him the best. But for him to put it the way he put it today is bulls---. And to have a general manager question our decision-making from three hours away, he must be a f---ing magician."
Jack Johnson’s departure from the Columbus Blue Jackets was anything but cordial, as the veteran defenseman had been a healthy scratch at the hands of John Tortorella at the end of his previous contract. Johnson inked a 5-year ticket with the Penguins at age 31 on July 1st 2018 and commented that it was great to join a winning culture, intentionally accidently implying that the Blue Jackets did not have a winning culture under Torts. That set off some beautiful Canada Day fireworks.
 
One red flag that seems to be repeating itself as I’m building these worst contracts lists is “long term deal + over 30 years old + over 1000 career hits”, and Jack checks all the boxes. Johnson no longer skates particularly well, is not good at moving the puck, and most of his teammates are demonstrably worse when Jack is on the ice. Over the first two seasons, Sidney Crosby had a 45% expected GF% when on the ice with Jack, but 58% when they were apart. It’s the same with Johnson’s primary D partner Kris Letang. Rutherford bit the bullet and bought out the last 3 years.
 
 
3. Zbynek Michalek
 

Signed By:

Ray Shero

Position:

D

Date:

2010-07-01

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

19

Total Money:

$20M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

25.7

296

56

387

 

Per 82 GP

5.1

82

16

107

21.3

“I was pretty clear about addressing our defence. By getting Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek, I think we’ve done that.”
Zbynek Michalek came to Pittsburgh as an unrestricted free agent in 2010 with a similar contract to what Brooks Orpik had signed 2 years earlier (Anton Volchenkov signed a nearly identical deal with the Devils that same day). The Czech defenseman had scored 28 PTS for the Coyotes in 2009, dropping to 17 PTS before hitting the open market.  Paul Martin also inked a new ticket that day, but you can read more about that further down the list.
 
The Penguins did manage to get decent usage out of Michalek for those 2 seasons, but had disappointing playoff defeats (including a first round exit in 2012 with both Crosby and Malkin healthy). Shortly afterwards they sold him to the Coyotes for a 3rd round draft pick. The downside of this contract was relatively small for the Pens, who shipped him out for good value. Michalek would go on to have trouble staying healthy, so it was the Coyotes who got the worse return on their investment.
 
 
4. Marcus Pettersson
 

Signed By:

Jim Rutherford

Position:

D

Date:

2020-01-28

Age July 1st:

24

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$20.1M

 

Playoff PTS:

3

Cap Hit:       

$4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

20.2

119

28

129

 

Per 82 GP

4.0

82

19

89

16.0

“He is young, reliable and smart, which is important in today's game. Marcus is part of our young core and it was important to get him signed long-term.”
Marcus Pettersson scored 25 PTS in the final year of his ELC and had a stat line that was easily worth $2M. Instead, he accepted a 1-year deal for less than half of that, in all likelihood to help the team with the cap under the promise that he’d get paid on the next deal. It’s my theory. This was an early extension, so it’s plausible this was agreed upon in the previous negotiation.
 
Regardless of how it happened, once the contract actually started, he was basically a bottom pairing defenseman worth less than half this price. You can’t be paying $4M to a defenseman playing 16 minutes per game. That’s just not acceptable. I assume Pittsburgh tried to move him and couldn't find a buyer.
 
 
5. Patric Hornqvist
 

Signed By:

Jim Rutherford

Position:

F

Date:

2018-02-26

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

20

Total Money:

$26.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

7

Cap Hit:       

$5.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

26.9

230

129

675

 

Per 82 GP

5.4

82

46

241

15.0

“We wanted those five years, and we got it. I’m happy about that. I’m going to be trying my best here for five years. That was the key for me here in this deal.”
Patric Hornqvist scored 14 playoff goals over the course of 2 Stanley Cup championship runs, but still had only eclipsed 70 regular season games once in his 6 years with Pittsburgh. Injuries had already started creeping into the equation before he signed this 5-year extension at age 31, and his health would become an increasing problem as he grew older.
 
The Swedish winger saw both his scoring output and ice time decline in year one, where his primary skill became the net front presence on the power play, while being a liability 5 on 5. Getting onto the ice for that devastating Pittsburgh power play was the reason he was still scoring any PTS. He was flipped after year two to the Florida Panthers for another bad contract in Mike Matheson. In the final 2 seasons, his scoring rate dipped below 40 PTS per 82 GP as his body broke down. He barely played in year five.
 
 
6. Evgeni Malkin
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2022-07-12

Age July 1st:

35

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$24.4M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$6.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

24.4

0

0

0

 

Per 82 GP

6.1

0

0

0

0.0

“His hockey resume and individual accomplishments speak volumes about him as a player, and we are thrilled to watch him continue his remarkable legacy in Pittsburgh.”
Do you really need me to convince you that signing a soon to be 36-year old player with an injury history to a 4-year treaty is an inherently risky investment? Perhaps it would have been prudent to wait for Malkin to start sucking before including this here, as he was scoring at a point per game clip in year 1 (at least was at the time this was written), so that possible decline clearly has not started. In the final year of his previous deal, Gino scored 42 PTS in 41 GP after missing the first half of the season with injury.
 
For a while it looked like Pittsburgh management wasn’t interested in taking on a risky contract and was prepared to let him leave. At least until Sidney Crosby lobbied for Gino to return, ostensibly forcing management to oblige their beloved captain. We’ll see how well this ages, but if he continues at a point per game clip for the next 4 years, it might need to be moved to their best contract list.
 
 
7. Andre Roy
 

Signed By:

Craig Patrick

Position:

F

Date:

2005-08-04

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$3M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

5.6

161

13

64

 

Per 82 GP

1.9

82

7

33

5.0

"It was never our intention or our desire to lose Andre Roy in the first place; however, when the new CBA was put in place we knew that in a salary cap world we could not afford to match what some teams were going to be prepared to pay Andre and thus we lost him to unrestricted free agency"
Andre Roy became an unrestricted free agent after winning the Stanley Cup with Tampa in 2004, and received a substantial over-payment from Craig Patrick. Roy became a regular healthy scratch who averaged only 5 minutes per game of ice time when he did make the line-up.
 
This was a waste of money and would have produced a better return on their investment had they used that cash as toilet paper. After Ray Shero became General Manager, the enforcer was demoted to the minors. He was eventually claimed by Jay Feaster on re-entry waivers, telling the media that he never wanted to lose Roy in the first place.
 
 
8. Jocelyn Thibault
 

Signed By:

Craig Patrick

Position:

G

Date:

2005-08-10

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$3M

 

Playoff SV%:

1.000

Cap Hit:       

$1.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

3.0

38

8

3.52

0.894

''Jocelyn brings a wealth of experience to our goaltending corps and will help us tremendously as we move forward"
Jocelyn Thibault had the best season of his career in 2003 at age 27, where he posted a .915 SV% in 62 GP and appeared in the All-star game. He would miss 60 games the following season after hip surgery and did not play during the lockout. Due to provisions in the new CBA, he was still RFA and the Penguins traded a 4th round pick to acquire his rights from Chicago. There’s not going to be a ton of demand for a 30-year-old goalie with a reconstructed hip, but Craig Patrick made a 2-year commitment so that he could serve as the French-Canadian mentor to Marc-Andre Fleury. 
 
Thibault put up terrible numbers in year one with a 4.46 GAA. In just 16 games he won only once while allowing 12 more goals than league average. His season ended early with (insert dramatic pause) a hip injury. Over 2 seasons he had 8 Wins, 17 Losses, with a 3.52 GAA and an .894 SV%. That's a fail. Perhaps we can consider the overpayment to be a “mentoring fee” that proved to be a success when Fleury became a Stanley Cup champion.
 
 
9. Ryan Whitney
 

Signed By:

Ray Shero

Position:

D

Date:

2007-07-01

Age July 1st:

24

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

33

Total Money:

$24M

 

Playoff PTS:

12

Cap Hit:       

$4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

34.0

325

162

455

 

Per 82 GP

5.7

82

41

115

22.9

“They’re paying me a lot of money and I’m not playing”
When Ryan Whitney signed this contract in July 2007, it was the most money awarded to a defenseman under the age of 27 since the salary cap was introduced two years earlier. Ryan banked $24M, where Niklas Kronwall had banked $15M one year earlier. Whitney proved to be a trend setter, as several young defensemen would sign some version of this deal in the decade that followed. Granted, this is also an example of how injury related deterioration can sour an investment, more evidence to the cautionary tale of the risks of long-term contracts.
 
Whitney did have a few good seasons under this treaty, but it took a downward spiral after he went to Edmonton. The Penguins shipped him out of town shortly before they won the Stanley Cup in 2009, bringing in Chris Kunitz, who won 3 championships in Pittsburgh (you never ever hear Whitney mention that on his podcast). Ryan did not last long in Anaheim before they flipped him to Edmonton for Lubomir Visnovsky. Both the Pens and Ducks were able to trade this contract for quality assets before the bottom fell out.
 
Whitney did run into lower-body injury problems that contributed to his decline. Over the full 6 seasons he averaged 41 PTS per 82 GP, which isn’t terrible. The problem was that he played 51 games or less in 4 of 6 years.
 
 
10. Darryl Sydor
 

Signed By:

Ray Shero

Position:

D

Date:

2007-07-02

Age July 1st:

35

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

4

Total Money:

$5M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

7.7

147

28

132

 

Per 82 GP

3.9

82

16

74

17.9

“It’s all you can do. Be ready when you’re asked to go and make the most of your opportunity.”
Darryl Sydor was 35 years old when he became an unrestricted free agent on July 1st 2007, agreeing to a 2-year ticket with Pittsburgh. His days of challenging for 50 PTS were in the rear-view mirror, scoring 21 PTS in 74 GP at age 34.
 
Darryl’s batteries were running dangerously low, earning reduced deployment, contributing very little to the offense and earning several healthy scratches in the 2008 playoffs. The Pens were able to dump him on the Dallas Stars in a mutual bad contract exchange for Phillip Boucher (who did not contribute much to Pitt in the playoffs either).
 
 
11. Justin Schultz
 

Signed By:

Jim Rutherford

Position:

D

Date:

2017-07-01

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

16

Total Money:

$16.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

11

Cap Hit:       

$5.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

17.3

138

54

242

 

Per 82 GP

5.8

82

32

144

19.8

“Justin plays a very important role for our team. It's very good to know that he will be returning to us for the next three years.”
During his first full season with the Pittsburgh Penguins at age 26, Schultz scored a career high 51 PTS, plus 13 more PTS in the playoffs to win his 2nd Stanley Cup with the team. He signed this extension while the party was still bumping a few weeks later. Jim Rutherford offered a high enough price that Schultz was willing to concede 2 years of unrestricted free agency. They paid for a 50-point player and got much less than that.
 
Yes, injuries factored into the failure of the Justin Schultz contract, but even when healthy he scored far below the 54-point pace he posted in his contract year when they won the Stanley Cup. He finished with 34 PTS per 82 GP, which is roughly equivalent to what you’d expect from a $3.5M defenseman. Coincidently, Justin signed a 2-year deal with rival Washington when this expired at a $4M cap hit.
 
 
12. Ryan Rust
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2022-05-21

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$30.8M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$5.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

30.8

0

0

0

 

Per 82 GP

5.1

0

0

0

0.0

“His leadership qualities and experience as a two-time Stanley Cup champion is an important piece of our team.
I’m not sure what’s a bigger risk, signing a 30-year-old player to a 6-year contract or me including it on this list before a sufficient number of games had been compiled under its tenure. The Penguins championship window may already be closed, but the window for them to continue trying to win with Sidney Crosby still has at least 3 years left (barring a sudden retirement). This pact is clearly all about maximizing that short-term window, but Rust would have needed more money if this was only going to be a 4-year offer.
 
Given that Sid Crosby is unlikely to be playing for this entire 6-year span, management probably isn’t terribly concerned that this could be painful for the last few years, as it allowed them to lower his annual cap hit and give the team more flexibility in their competitive window. A sufficiently big reward was required for Rust to forgo an opportunity to test the open market for what could be his last contract in the NHL.
 
 
13. Mark Eaton
 

Signed By:

Ray Shero

Position:

D

Date:

2006-07-03

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

5

Total Money:

$3.2M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$1.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

5.6

71

6

50

 

Per 82 GP

2.8

82

7

58

19.4

"I take pride in, No. 1, playing good defense and shutting down whoever I’m playing against. I have a good grasp of the defensive game, but I’m willing and able to do more. Offensively, I think there’s still a lot more for me to contribute. I plan to get better at that aspect, as well."
Mark Eaton joined the Pens as a 29-year-old unrestricted free agent after having suffered a serious wrist injury a few months earlier. He was mostly a defensive player with negligible offensive contributions and ran into further injury problems.
 
When they had a healthy Eaton in the in the 2007 playoffs, they lost in 5 games to the Ottawa Senators. Next year he missed the playoffs after ACL surgery, and the Pens made it all the way to the Stanley Cup final. He played 76 games and scored 6 PTS over 2 seasons. They were a better team without him on the ice.
 
It should be noted that he wasn’t that bad of a player, considering he signed a new contract after this expired and helped them win the 2009 Stanley Cup.
 
 
14. Conor Sheary
 

Signed By:

Jim Rutherford

Position:

F

Date:

2017-07-30

Age July 1st:

25

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$9M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

9.5

220

87

391

 

Per 82 GP

3.2

82

32

146

13.9

"We talked as well about a one-year term, but I think the three-year term worked out better for myself where I could have a little security and put a three-year body of work together where I can play hockey and not worry about a contract every year. I was very happy with that."
Conor Sheary posted a whopping 53 PTS in 61 GP in 2016/17 to earn this contract, but the magic dried up once he stopped playing regularly with Sidney Crosby. He had peaked at 45 PTS in the AHL, as Sid squeezed more juice out of him than what should have been possible. It eventually proved to be a mirage.
 
The good news once again is that Jimmy Rutherford has a talent for trading away his contract mistakes, and he bundled up this one with a terrible Matt Hunwick contract and shipped the duo off to Buffalo for a 4th round pick. Buffalo was thinking that he could play with Eichel given his experience with Crosby, that proved to be a big mistake. Jimmy did re-acquire Conor at the end of the contract and he helped the team miss the playoffs.
 
 
15. Brandon Tanev
 

Signed By:

Jim Rutherford

Position:

F

Date:

2019-07-01

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$21M

 

Playoff PTS:

1

Cap Hit:       

$3.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.1

130

56

189

 

Per 82 GP

3.5

82

35

119

14.6

“He’s a really good skater. He’s a good penalty killer. He’s a guy that when he’s playing makes the team harder to play against.”
Brandon Tanev was an effective 3rd liner for the Jets and was in demand as a free agent, but I’m skeptical that anyone was offering this much term, going to his 33rd birthday. The 6-years may have just been a way to massage down the cap hit, as the back half aligns with the back-diving portion of Crosby’s contract, when the team might not be expecting to be competitive.
 
Year one certainly proved to be a success, as the Penguins 4th line was very effective in 2020, albeit not terribly productive offensively. He was later taken by Seattle in the expansion draft, and missed much of his first year. There’s an argument that this isn’t even bad, it’s just slim pickings for Pens worst deals. Kinda bad is enough to crack the list.


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