Tampa Bay Lightning 15 Best Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here. One thing you won't find here are entry level contracts because they all come from the same cookie cutter and require less skill at the negotiating table.
 
My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 
 
Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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When Steve Yzerman inherited the Tampa Bay Lightning roster in 2010, the team had missed the playoffs for 3 consecutive years, and had fallen on dark times after the Brian Lawton administration. You won’t read about any of Lawton’s free agent signings here, but his 2-year reign will be discussed extensively on their worst contracts list.
 
Those dark years also granted them some high draft picks that were parlayed into Steve Stamkos and Victor Hedman. Getting those high picks laid the foundation for a dominant team in the future, back when the NHL had a lottery system that allowed the worst teams to get the highest draft picks. Had they bottomed out in recent years, Stamkos and Hedman would have gone to teams who barely missed the playoffs.
 
Steve Yzerman handled the burgeoning dynasty brilliantly, pulling a few rabbits out of his hat in his 8 years on the job. The Jedi Mind Trick that he mastered was convincing his free agents to take less money because of the lower tax rate in the state of Florida. Nominally the salaries might be below market, but when the no-state tax gets factored into the equation, the take-home compensation normalizes. Personally, I think the salary cap should be based on after tax income so that teams in low-tax regions don’t get a competitive advantage. It’s also easier to get players to take a discount when you have a championship contender.
 
The Lightning won a pair of Stanley Cups in the post-Covid era, and those victories heavily influenced this list.
 
 
1. Victor Hedman
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	D
Date:	2016-07-01		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	8 years		Playoff GP:	87
Total Money:	$63M		Playoff PTS:	69
Cap Hit:	$7.9M		Stanley Cups:	2

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	64.4	349	302	908
Per 82 GP	8.0	82	71	213	24.6

"We want to keep a competitive group and have a competitive team. For us moving forward, it's going to be important for everyone to buy into that, obviously.”

– Victor Hedman

Steve Yzerman shrewdly decided to get Victor Hedman’s autograph on a long-term extension on the very first day it was allowed to be signed. One year later he was nominated for the Norris trophy after scoring 72 PTS. Had the Swede hit the UFA market that summer, he could have written himself a blank cheque from any GM in the league. Both he and Stamkos talked to the media about how important it was for their star players to take less money to help the team stay together.
 
It’s hard to imagine $7.9M as underpaid, but that’s exactly what happened, as Hedman won the Norris in year one as the best defenseman in the NHL. The Lightning lean heavily on this guy to play big minutes in all situations, carrying a tremendous burden at below market price, but hey, at least there’s no state tax. Hedman carved his name into the history books by winning the Conn Smythe trophy when Tampa won the Stanley Cup in 2020. He has moved himself into the elite tier of all-time great defensemen.
 
 
2. Andrei Vasilevskiy
 

Signed By:	Julien Brisebois		Position:	G
Date:	2019-07-29		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	8 years		Playoff Wins:	30
Total Money:	$76M		Playoff SV%:	0.929
Cap Hit:	$9.5M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	9.5	105	70	2.38	0.920

 

"I'm pretty excited to stay in Tampa"

– Andrei Vasilevskiy

Andrei Vasilevskiy signed this contract extension prior to winning his first Stanley Cup, then won another Stanley Cup and the playoff MVP in year one. At the time it was signed, Tampa had not breached that championship threshold, so there was some risk paying a goalie this much money. Well the risk paid off. The team very nearly won a 3rd Stanley Cup in year two, where Vasy likely would have been the front runner for another Conn Smythe.
 
Did I take a risk ranking it this high while there was still 6 years remaining at age 28? Perhaps, as regression started to appear early in year 3, but my best contracts list have a policy of Conn Smythe trophies that won Stanley Cups are always at the top, and Hedman’s MVP deal is already #1.
 
 
3. Nikita Kucherov
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	F
Date:	2016-10-11		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	20
Total Money:	$14.3M		Playoff PTS:	19
Cap Hit:	$4.8M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	15.6	236	313	771
Per 82 GP	5.2	82	109	268	19.8

"A talented guy, a really good guy, a smart guy. He's everything we want in a player."

– Steve Yzerman

Nikita Kucherov had just scored 30 goals and 66 PTS, for which he deserved a salary in the $7M range, a number that would have been impossible for the team to fit under the salary cap after signing expensive extensions with Stamkos and Hedman. Kucherov’s ELC had just expired, he had no arbitration rights, and went unsigned until Oct 11. The impasse lasted until the start of the season, before the Russian decided to accept what was being offered instead of holding out for a fairer deal.
 
Where were the offer sheets? The part that confused me was accepting a 3-year term at this discounted price and not taking a faster route to arbitration. Even with no state tax, he left millions of dollars on the table as the Lightning got one of the top scorers in the whole league. The winger averaged 109 PTS per 82 GP, winning both the Hart trophy and Art Ross in the final year, as league MVP and top scorer. You can read about his next ticket further down this list.
 
 
4. Brayden Point
 

Signed By:	Julien Brisebois		Position:	F
Date:	2019-09-23		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	52
Total Money:	$20.3M		Playoff PTS:	58
Cap Hit:	$6.8M		Stanley Cups:	2

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	20.5	188	170	448
Per 82 GP	6.8	82	74	195	19.0

"He is the consummate professional with an unwavering commitment to team success, growing as a player and improving every day.”

– Julien Brisebois

Brayden Point was a member of the great RFA class of 2019 after scoring 41 goals and 92 PTS in the final year of his ELC. Before that summer, it was virtually inconceivable for a 90-point player go unsigned into September, with that level of offensive ability being in extraordinarily high demand, but this year we had two of them. Mitch Marner signed for $10.9M AAV ten days earlier, and many had projected Point as a more valuable commodity because centers earn more on average than wingers.
 
In theory the Marner ticket should have set the market for Point, instead the Tampa pivot came in $4M beneath the Marner price. Many Leafs fans cried foul. When you look at after-tax income, the pay gap between these two stars shrinks substantially. Brayden came in far under even the most conservative predictions of his upcoming salary, as the Lightning once again exploited their competitive advantage over a division rival, freeing up more payroll for Tampa to spend on the rest of its roster.
 
While Marner and the Leafs failed to qualify for the playoffs (getting knocked out of the qualifying round in the Covid bubble), Point helped carry the Lightning to a Stanley Cup championship, scoring 30 PTS in 20 GP, also receiving strong MVP consideration.
 
 
5. Nikita Kucherov
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	F
Date:	2018-07-10		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	8 years		Playoff GP:	68
Total Money:	$76M		Playoff PTS:	91
Cap Hit:	$9.5M		Stanley Cups:	2

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	76.3	115	154	366
Per 82 GP	9.5	82	110	261	19.3

"I love living here. It's good weather. … I didn't think twice when I had a chance to sign."

– Nikita Kucherov

Perhaps it is premature to fully declare this investment to be a stunning success with 4 years still remaining, but it’s undeniable that Nikita Kucherov could have obtained an even greater bounty than Artemi Panarin had he given himself the opportunity to test the UFA market after having scored 128 PTS and being named league MVP in 2019.
 
Granted New York does have state tax, so their net income gap is smaller than you’d think. Kucherov’s production did dip in year one of the deal, scoring at a diminished rate of 103 PTS per 82 GP. That didn’t matter, as Kucherov potted an impressive 32 PTS in 22 playoff games to earn Conn Smythe consideration in the Bolts 2020 Cup run. Even if he declines in the twilight of this deal, it’s already worth every penny.
 
 
6. Victor Hedman
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	D
Date:	2011-11-30		Age July 1st:	21
Term:	5 years		Playoff GP:	47
Total Money:	$20M		Playoff PTS:	31
Cap Hit:	$4M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	24.2	335	232	707
Per 82 GP	4.8	82	57	173	23.1

“He has shown tremendous growth as a player in just more than two seasons in the NHL while also becoming a key member of our team. We look forward to his continued development in a Lightning uniform.”

– Steve Yzerman

Victor Hedman peaked at 26 PTS on his entry level contract, and had not yet developed into the Norris trophy candidate we all know and love today. Yzerman offered him a higher salary than a player of his production typically earns at that age, more probably then Victor had been asking for, slipping in a 5-year term. Throw in the “no state tax” sweetner, and the young defenseman probably deemed this whole negotiation victorious. This was similar to the Alex Edler (2008) and Kris Letang (2010) contracts, but extra money and term.
 
The big Swede had a decent first year in the lockout shortened season, but by year two shot up to 55 PTS. It became increasingly obvious that his salary was frightfully too low (over these 5 years he averaged 57 PTS per 82 GP). The Lightning got an $8M player for an average adjusted cap hit of $4.8M. Hedman scored 72 PTS and earned a Norris trophy nomination in the final year.
 
 
7. Andrei Vasilevskiy
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	G
Date:	2016-07-01		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	3 years		Playoff Wins:	11
Total Money:	$10.5M		Playoff SV%:	0.908
Cap Hit:	$3.5M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	3.7	170	118	2.53	0.921

"I don't know if there's been a bigger goalie talent I've seen. Vasy has showed throughout the regular season and in the playoffs when Bish went down how good of a goalie he is."

– Victor Hedman

Andrei Vasilevskiy had only accumulated 40 GP of NHL experience when Yzerman got his signature on this 3-year extension a full year before the ELC expired. Fellow Russian Semyon Varlamov signed a nearly identical deal (in term and average adjusted cap hit) five years earlier, and it’s plausible that Stevie cited that comparable specifically when presenting his offer to Vasilevskiy.
 
The gamble paid off, with the Russian becoming the primary starter immediately after signing. By year one of this pact, Vasilevskiy posted 44 wins with a .920 SV% and was nominated for the Vezina, an award he won the following year. Getting 3 years of Vezina quality goaltending for a $3.6M average adjusted cap hit is an absurdly incredible cost-benefit ratio. Andrei also started all 22 playoff games for Tampa in 2020, winning the Stanley Cup with a .928 SV%.
 
 
8. Steven Stamkos
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	F
Date:	2011-07-19		Age July 1st:	21
Term:	5 years		Playoff GP:	31
Total Money:	$37.5M		Playoff PTS:	22
Cap Hit:	$7.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	46.5	326	330	1068
Per 82 GP	9.3	82	83	269	20.6

“I actually got a couple texts from friends with a picture of my face Photoshopped on a Toronto Maple Leafs jersey”

– Steve Stamkos

Unlike some of his RFA teammates after him, Steve Stamkos didn’t get squeezed into the same type of team friendly deal. The sniper had just scored 45 goals and 91 PTS, so there was no denying that a substantial pay day was due. He received a similar salary to Nicklas Backstrom one year earlier, but half as much term, allowing a faster track to free agency.
 
The investment paid lofty dividends immediately, as the center scored at a 97-point pace over the first 2 years. As this was blossoming into decisive under-payment, that all came crashing to a halt when Stammer crashed into the boards breaking his tibia in 2013. His scoring rate fell dramatically the following season, down to 72 PTS in 82 GP, bottoming out at 64 PTS in 77 GP the final year. Despite the 2nd half downturn, this still generated quality value for the Lightning, as he averaged 49 goals and 83 PTS per 82 GP over the full duration.
 
 
9. Martin St. Louis
 

Signed By:	Jay Feaster		Position:	F
Date:	2005-08-24		Age July 1st:	30
Term:	6 years		Playoff GP:	29
Total Money:	$31.5M		Playoff PTS:	32
Cap Hit:	$5.3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	52.1	490	519	1493
Per 82 GP	8.7	82	87	250	22.2

"Dating all the way back to the summer of 2004, there was never a moment when we were not firmly committed as an organization to getting Marty signed long term. The fact that he was willing to take less and give up the chance to explore unrestricted free agency demonstrates his commitment to our team, his teammates, our franchise and our incredible fans."

– Jay Feaster

In the final NHL season before the 2005 labour dispute, Martin St. Louis scored a league high 94 PTS to win both the Art Ross and Hart trophies, in addition to playing a prominent role in the Tampa Bay Lightning winning the Stanley Cup. Feaster faced an incredible challenge to keep his championship roster together, retaining St. Louis and LeCavalier, but letting Khabibulin walk.
 
Despite being 30 years old when the new CBA commenced, the Lightning rightfully enthusiastically retained St. Louis on a 6-year term. Normally when I write “6-year contract to a 30-year-old player” it’s when writing my bad contracts lists. It’s rare for that level of risk to produce this much reward, including 102 PTS in 2007 while playing over 24 minutes per game at age 31.
 
If you’re making a list of which hockey players had the greatest victories in their battles against Father Time in the salary cap era, Marty is a contender (but certainly behind Lidstrom, Selanne, and Jagr). In the final year at age 35, St. Louis scored 99 PTS averaging 21 minutes of ice. All in, he scored 552 PTS in 519 GP including playoffs. Well done.
 
 
10. Steven Stamkos
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	F
Date:	2016-06-29		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	8 years		Playoff GP:	68
Total Money:	$68M		Playoff PTS:	56
Cap Hit:	$8.5M		Stanley Cups:	2

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	70.6	353	410	1012
Per 82 GP	8.8	82	95	235	18.4

"Quite honestly, I didn't know how it was going to play out. I hadn't given up hope, but I certainly wasn't expecting it to get done."

- Steve Yzerman

With a shot at unrestricted free agency only a day away, Stamkos decided to decline that opportunity and sign a long-term deal with the Lightning. Although his scoring rate had been in decline since his broken leg, the hysteria about a name this big hitting the open market was engulfing the hockey media landscape, especially in his hometown of Toronto where every young boy allegedly grows up dreaming of playing in blue and white. Sadly for Leaf nation, he proved loyal to a different blue and white jersey.
 
This contract did get off to a disheartening beginning, as Stammer tore the meniscus in his right knee, costing him most of the season. But unlike the broken leg, the sniper did not return from that injury as a lesser player. Quite the opposite, he came back the following season and scored 86 PTS, his best performance since before the broken leg in 2013.
 
By year three, Stamkos was back to old form, scoring 45 goals and 98 PTS. The second half of the contract extends past his 30th birthday, so there is some risk of decline ahead, but so far so good, he’s averaged 95 PTS per 82 GP. The team won the Stanley Cup largely with Steve watching from the press box, but he did play 1 game and score a beautiful goal to earn a ring. He played a bigger role in their second championship.
 
 
11. Dan Boyle
 

Signed By:	Jay Feaster		Position:	D
Date:	2005-08-09		Age July 1st:	28
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	11
Total Money:	$10M		Playoff PTS:	5
Cap Hit:	$3.3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	18.8	198	141	430
Per 82 GP	6.3	82	58	178	25.7

“I was misled and disrespected, and it was really not the right way to do a lot of things. I don’t have anything good to say about how all this went down.”

– Dan Boyle

Dan Boyle had scored 53 and 39 PTS in 2003 and 2004, winning the Stanley Cup with Tampa before the 2005 lockout. He returned from the labour dispute as an RFA, but could have been unrestricted in one year, instead choosing a 3-year bridge at a low-price tag relative to the production.
 
Boyle peaked at 63 PTS on this contract and returned very good value. The Lightning where able to harness “peak Boyle” for a below market fee. The final year did get cut short by surgery to repair severed tendons in his wrist. Feaster re-signed him to a 6-year extension in March of that year, then traded him to San Jose in July before the contract even started. Boyle was extraordinarily upset for someone who had been moved to California.
 
 
12. Ben Bishop
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	G
Date:	2013-04-15		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	2 years		Playoff Wins:	13
Total Money:	$4.6M		Playoff SV%:	0.921
Cap Hit:	$2.3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	2.9	125	77	2.27	0.920

"The idea was to get him signed, which was always our intention, so now we look to move into next season with both Ben and Anders Lindback. They are both relatively young, and they each have tremendous upside."

 – Steve Yzerman

Ben Bishop had played 45 career games spread across 3 different teams when he signed this 2-year deal with the Lightning, having never won the primary starter’s gig until year one of this contract. It was a generous price for that little career experience, but many in hockey believed that he was a future star goaltender.
 
The believers would soon be proven right. Bishop played 125 games with 77 wins and 27 losses, posting a .920 SV%, taking Tampa on a deep playoff run in year two. Tremendous value if you can find it for that cheap (good luck). The Lightning would more than double his salary on the next deal, but would ship him out of town before that expired.
 
 
13. J.T Miller
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	F
Date:	2018-06-26		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	5 years		Playoff GP:	17
Total Money:	$26.3M		Playoff PTS:	17
Cap Hit:	$5.3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	26.6	277	264	585
Per 82 GP	5.3	82	78	173	19.1

"He's on a good contract, we got him for four more years at a good number"

– Jim Benning

J.T Miller had only played 36 games for the Lightning (including playoffs) when he punched this ticket, having posted a career best 58 PTS that season after coming over in a trade from New York. The cap hit was very close to what the market normally pays for that production, which is good for Miller that he didn’t take the “no state tax” discount, as the Lightning were forced to dump his salary on Vancouver one year later.
 
Tampa received 1^st and 3^rd round picks, a nice haul considering Miller no longer fit into their cap structure. Once in Vancouver (with a much higher tax rate), JT Miller was put on the top line with Elias Pettersson and immediately started to thrive, scoring at an 86-point pace before Covid-19 cut the season short.
 
 
14. Martin St. Louis
 

Signed By:	Steve Yzerman		Position:	F
Date:	2010-07-01		Age July 1st:	36
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	44
Total Money:	$22.5M		Playoff PTS:	22
Cap Hit:	$5.6M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	28.4	280	255	645
Per 82 GP	7.1	82	75	189	20.7

“I always felt if I was going to leave Tampa my first place I would want to play would be in New York”

– Martin St. Louis

Typically when I’m writing about a 4-year contract given to an over-35 player, it is describing an awful mistake made by a foolish General Manager, but in this case it worked out. It was an impossible task finding age appropriate comparables with similar production that Marty had going into this one.
 
At age 37, St. Louis scored 60 PTS in 48 GP (103-point pace) during the lockout shortened 2013 season, winning the Art Ross trophy. St. Louis would request a trade the following year after Yzerman left him off Team Canada for the Sochi Olympics, and was moved to the New York Rangers for their captain Ryan Callahan and a pair of 1st round picks.
 
His production may have dropped in New York, but he did help the Rangers to a pair of deep playoff runs, scoring 22 PTS in 44 playoff GP to end his decorated NHL career, eventually inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame.
 
 
15. Mikhail Sergachev
 

Signed By:	Julien Brisebois		Position:	D
Date:	2020-11-25		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	46
Total Money:	$14.6M		Playoff PTS:	13
Cap Hit:	$4.9M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	14.6	134	68	257
Per 82 GP	4.9	82	42	157	22.3

“I was pretty confident that everything would be all right”

– Mikhail Sergachev

The Tampa Bay Lightning won the Stanley Cup in the final year of Sergachev’s entry level contract, and needed to re-sign their young defenseman amid a flat-cap crunch. It looks like Julien Brisebois used a similar trick as with past RFA players, if you take a discount on a short-term bridge deal, we’ll make it up to you on the next contract. Frankly though, it wasn’t THAT big of a discount. My algorithm priced his 2020 stat line at $5.2M, so while they knocked a little bit off the sticker price, it really only amounted to a $300K discount.
 
Technically with the team’s cap constraints, even a small savings like that can make a big difference, and it helped the Tampa Bay Lightning win a 2nd Stanley Cup and reach a 3rd final. He signed an 8-year extension for an $8.5M cap hit a year before this was set to expire.