Washington Capitals 15 Best Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here. One thing you won't find here are entry level contracts because they all come from the same cookie cutter and require less skill at the negotiating table.
 
My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 
 
Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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The Washington Capitals struggled for the first 2 years that Alex Ovechkin spent in North America, before rattling off 14 playoff appearances in the next 15 years. Over this span, the Capitals regular season performance did not correlate to playoff wins, as Alexander the Great only passed the 2nd round once. Quite often it was the rival Pittsburgh Penguins who played the role of spoiler.
 
The good news is, that one time that they advanced beyond round two, they also won the Stanley Cup, slaying the metaphorical dragon in Pittsburgh.  Nearly half of their best contracts in the salary cap era were on the ice to celebrate that victory. General Manager Brian MacLellan had inherited some of the key pieces of that roster from his predecessor George McPhee, but still had his fingerprints all over the trophy.
 
 
1. Alex Ovechkin
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	F
Date:	2008-01-10		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	13 years		Playoff GP:	131
Total Money:	$124M		Playoff PTS:	126
Cap Hit:	$9.5M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	150.6	952	1010	4464
Per 82 GP	11.6	82	87	385	20.6

"That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard. You will regret this decision for the rest of your life!"

-NBA Commissioner David Stern (to Ted Leonsis)

Alex Ovechkin scored 163 regular season goals over his entry level contract, by far the most since the standard ELC was invented in 2005 (Laine scored 110). This contract made Ovie the highest paid player in the NHL, so it’s hard to call this a bargain, at least in the early years. Alex is arguably the greatest natural goal scorer in NHL history and could have written himself a blank cheque had he ever tested free agency (and may very well if he goes UFA in 2021 at age 35).
 
Over the first 12 years, Ovie led the NHL in goals scored 7 times (543 total goals), won the Hart trophy twice, won a Stanley Cup and a Conn Smythe as playoff MVP. He’ll be a first ballot Hall of Fame player. It should be noted that there was a blip during the Dale Hunter administration when this contract got a failing grade. Dale tried to force Ovechkin to make a greater commitment to defense, leading to his worst statistical season with 65 PTS. Nicklas Backstrom also missed half that season due to injury. I overreacted and put Ovie on my 2012 worst NHL contracts list, which in retrospect, might be my all-time worst premature declaration of badness.
 
There was another downturn near his 30^th birthday when it looked like all those years of heavy hitting and hard partying might have finally caught up with him, scoring 33 goals and 69 PTS in 2017. That too proved to be short-lived, as he won another Maurice Richard trophy in 2018. As the salary cap went up, the AAV fell into bargain territory. It’s hard to say that a guy who got paid $124M left money on the table, but absolutely Ovie could have made more money than this had he taken the Crosby route, accepting less term to attain UFA status sooner. Not that it matters. He has more money than he’ll ever spend. Maybe Alex’s great grand children will complain that he didn’t maximize career earnings.
 
 
2. John Carlson
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	D
Date:	2012-09-14		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	6 years		Playoff GP:	70
Total Money:	$23.8M		Playoff PTS:	43
Cap Hit:	$4M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	28.4	422	258	1039
Per 82 GP	4.7	82	50	202	23.7

“I still think that I can get better and there’s things that I can take from last year, not just for playoffs but for myself to kind of know where I need to be every game.”

– John Carlson

John Carlson had already established himself as an effective NHL defenseman, peaking at 37 PTS during his ELC, when he signed his 2nd contract right before the 2012 lockout. This was a fair appraisal of his worth, coming in slightly under my algorithm and basket of comparable valuations for this type of player. 
 
By year three, Carlson elevated his offensive production to a higher plateau, scoring 55 PTS in 82 GP, and the best was yet to come. Year six saw him climb up to 68 PTS, including 20 more in the playoffs, en route to winning the Stanley Cup. This was a trend setter, as Justin Faulk signed a similar deal 2 years later, followed by Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm, and Seth Jones 4 years later (though contract tracing can track this entire family of deals back to Ryan Whitney in 2007).
 
 
3. Nicklas Backstrom
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	F
Date:	2010-05-17		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	10 years		Playoff GP:	97
Total Money:	$67M		Playoff PTS:	76
Cap Hit:	$6.7M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	79.5	710	669	1485
Per 82 GP	8.0	82	77	172	19.6

"We now have two of maybe the top five players in the world playing on our team for many years to come"

- Bruce Boudreau

Nicklas Backstrom started producing like an elite offensive player from the moment he arrived in the NHL, which might have had something to do with being the playmaking center for the greatest goal scorer of the modern era. The Swede’s point totals on his ELC were 69, 88, and 101, giving him more leverage than players typically have without arbitration. A 101-point scorer on the RFA market is at much higher risk of an offer sheet, which is why this level of scorer tends to get extended rather than get exposed to free agency. The majority of those on his comparables list were extended before July 1st, and of the few that were, one did get an offer sheet.
 
This might have been pricey in the beginning, when he followed up his 101-point season with 65 PTS. He missed half of year two with an injury, which to corresponded with the worst season of Ovechkin’s career (probably not a coincidence). One thing that those who signed these really long deals failed to foresee was a steadily rising salary cap, lowering the % these counted against the cap, as inflation would eventually make them underpaid.
 
Backstrom was expensive in year one, but a bargain by year five. He remained a consistent producer, topping 70 PTS per 82 GP for the last 9 years. Nicklas also netted 23 PTS in the 2018 Stanley Cup playoffs before hoisting the hallowed mug. No matter how you look at it, this investment was a stunning success.
 
 
4. John Carlson
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	D
Date:	2018-06-25		Age July 1st:	28
Term:	8 years		Playoff GP:	23
Total Money:	$64M		Playoff PTS:	18
Cap Hit:	$8M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	64.6	279	260	697
Per 82 GP	8.1	82	76	205	24.4

“John has been an exceptional and consistent player for our franchise and has blossomed into being one of the top defensemen in the NHL”

– Brian MacLellan

John Carlson had just scored 88 PTS (including playoffs), winning the Stanley Cup before he was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at age 28 as a right shot defenseman. If we’re talking about the optimal galactic alignment to hit a home run in free agency, it rarely gets much better than that. If he had been motivated to leave for the highest bidder, there’s no question he could have demanded an average salary north of $10M.
 
The week before the free agent frenzy was set to begin, Carlson removed his name from the board, agreeing to stay with his Stanley Cup teammates in Washington. Despite this deal being a discount compared to what the highest bidder would have offered, that did not stop the outpouring of analysts who thought this contract was insane. Ryan Lambert at Yahoo described it as “absolutely off the rails” in a scathing op-ed. In all fairness, Lambert tends to think that every contract is the worst that’s ever been signed, so that’s kinda the low hanging fruit of nay-sayers.
 
But what the detractors failed to see was that Carlson’s best hockey was yet to come, most especially 75 PTS in 69 GP in 2020 as his odometer was rolling over into his dirty 30s. He managed to maintain that 70-point rate in 2021 and 2022 as well. His aging curve proved to be at the high-end of the spectrum, though you do wonder how that would work out without Ovechkin.
 
 
5. Evgeny Kuznetsov
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	F
Date:	2017-07-02		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	8 years		Playoff GP:	45
Total Money:	$62.4M		Playoff PTS:	47
Cap Hit:	$7.8M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	63.8	338	314	795
Per 82 GP	8.0	82	76	193	18.7

“Initially because of the situation Kuznetsov was in - his ability to go play in Russia for two years, earn as much money or more than he was making here, then come back as a UFA. He had the leverage. We lost our arbitration leverage with his ability to do that. We had to comply with his demands."

- Brian MacLellan

Evgeny Kuznetsov was threatening to return to the KHL when his previous contract expired, forcing MacLellan to make a lofty offer to entice him to stay in North America. My initial reaction when he inked this deal was that he’d been paid too much money for the 59 PTS he had generated that season, and that it had the potential to screw up the Capitals salary cap going forward. It did not take long to be proven wrong.
 
Year one he scored a career high 83 PTS in the regular season, and 32 more in the playoffs to help Washington win the Stanley Cup. This was the Russian who probably should have been awarded the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP. Frankly, it doesn’t matter what has happened since or how he performs going forward.
 
Just that single season makes the whole investment entirely worthwhile, but there have been some worrying trends since. His production wasn’t the only thing to take a nose-dive after winning the Stanley Cup, as Kuznetsov was suspended from international competition for 4 years after a positive cocaine test…
 
 
6. Braden Holtby
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	G
Date:	2015-07-24		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	5 years		Playoff Wins:	32
Total Money:	$30.5M		Playoff SV%:	0.922
Cap Hit:	$6.1M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	6.6	290	181	2.59	0.913

"He's a perfect fit for what we think we have. He's a good teammate, a good person, and I think he's just touching the surface of what he could become. I think the certainty of having him in our lineup over the next -- whatever time we have, the window to win a championship -- is why we're excited about signing him today."

– Brian MacLellan

Brayden Holtby had logged 178 career regular season games played with a .921 SV% when his previous contract expired. MacLellan had every reason to believe this was a safe investment and he was rewarded for his faith in the young gatekeeper.
 
Year one Holtby won 48 games, lost only 9, while posting a .922 SV% winning the 2016 Vezina trophy (receiving 26 of 30 first place votes from NHL General Managers). He was even better in year two but finished 2nd in Vezina voting to Sergei Bobrovsky. His performance slipped below average during the 2018 regular season, losing the starting job for a stretch to Philipp Grubauer, but Brayden made up for it in the playoffs with 16 wins and a .922 SV% to win the Stanley Cup.
 
This was great asset management by MacLellan, but a failure by Holtby to maximize career earnings. He could have been UFA in the summer of 2017 after back to back seasons finishing top 2 in Vezina voting, and instead signed a deal that would expire after his 30th birthday. Year five was a disaster, and his worst season as a pro (.897 SV%), considerably weakening demand for his services. Obviously leaving in the summer of 2017 would have cost him a Stanley Cup ring, so I’m sure he’s got no regrets.
 
 
7. Alex Ovechkin
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	F
Date:	2021-07-27		Age July 1st:	35
Term:	5 years		Playoff GP:	6
Total Money:	$48.1M		Playoff PTS:	6
Cap Hit:	$9.6M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	48.1	77	90	334
Per 82 GP	9.6	82	96	356	20.6

"You just have to go out there and do your thing and maybe it happens, maybe not. But how I said, one step at a time."

- Alex Ovechkin

This is the longest and most expensive contract given out after a player’s 35^th birthday to appear on one of my best contract lists (the next closest is 4 years at a $7.2M adjusted cap hit to 36-year-old Martin St. Louis) as these are generally reserved for my worst lists. It’s only the fourth 35+ deal since 2005 with at least a 5-year term, none for even close to this much money. This is very rare, but hey, Alex Ovechkin is a rare specimen who is poised to become the greatest goal scorer in NHL history (some might say he already is).
 
In year one at this advanced age, he scored 90 PTS. Father Time is fighting a losing battle against Sid and Ovie, as neither shows any signs of slowing down. It might be considered risky to put this here with so much time remaining at his age, but he should overtake Gretzky on the career goals list under this deal, which is a very impressive feat. It’s plausible this gets moved higher in future updates, which is more likely than it being removed entirely.
 
 
8. Mike Green
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	D
Date:	2008-07-01		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	43
Total Money:	$21M		Playoff PTS:	22
Cap Hit:	$5.25M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	29.3	224	180	627
Per 82 GP	7.3	82	66	230	24.9

"Mike has developed into an impact defenseman in the short time since we drafted him, and he will be a key part of our team moving forward"

- George McPhee

Mike Green only scored 15 PTS in his first 92 NHL games, but showed tremendous upside in the AHL, where he scored 51 PTS in 68 GP over his first 2 pro seasons. By the final year of his ELC, Green finally started to display his scoring prowess at the NHL level, pumping 56 PTS in 82 GP at age 21.
 
The first 2 years were nothing short of tremendous, scoring 149 PTS in 143 GP, finishing second in Norris Trophy voting both seasons. Green led all NHL defensemen in scoring over the first two seasons of this contract by a wide margin (Dan Boyle was second with 115). Then the injuries started to hit in year three, making the back half of the deal far less impressive (but we won’t issue too many demerits for injuries beyond his control). An abdominal injury cost him most of the 2012 season, which also lines up with Ovechkin’s worst campaign (that may not be a coincidence).
 
 
9. Evgeny Kuznetsov
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	F
Date:	2015-07-06		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	25
Total Money:	$6M		Playoff PTS:	12
Cap Hit:	$3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	6.9	164	136	363
Per 82 GP	3.4	82	68	182	17.2

"That's what we're looking for, some kind of bridge contract, it's probably good for me and probably good for the Caps, too, I have two more years to show my hockey and all this stuff.”

- Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov’s first 97 NHL games resulted in 46 PTS, which should have netted him about $1M AAV less than the Capitals gave him. MacLellan probably handed over a little bit extra to help ensure that he did not return to Russia, which seemed to be a constant threat in the early years.
 
Evgeny made a bet on himself, and immediately showed rapid improvement, scoring 77 PTS in year one (but a disappointing 2 PTS in 12 playoff games as they were eliminated by Pittsburgh).  This was a great bridge deal for Washington and produced 136 PTS in 164 GP. The Bird man got substantially more expensive on his next contract, but it paid off with a championship.
 
 
10. Brooks Laich
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	F
Date:	2008-07-09		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	30
Total Money:	$6.2M		Playoff PTS:	17
Cap Hit:	$2.1M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	8.9	242	160	614
Per 82 GP	3.0	82	54	208	18.0

“Well, everyone always wants more money. It is a fair deal and it is within Brooks’ market value. There is some term there so there is some certainty for Brooks going forward. He is happy to get the deal done because he sees the team as an exciting, up-and-coming team and wants to be a part of it.”

–Roland Thompson, (Laich’s Agent)

Brooks Laich’s agent got his client a very fair price for his services after scoring 37 PTS, if anything it was richer than most of his recent comparables. One week earlier, Joe Pavelski signed for $500K AAV less after scoring more PTS.
 
Even if it was a minor overpayment, that was rendered moot when Laich quickly elevated to a new level of production, scoring 53 PTS in year one. Brooks sustained that higher level for 3 years, substantially outperforming his pay grade. By the end, the center was underpaid, but made up for it on his next deal (you’ll have to read the Caps worst contracts list if you’d like to learn more about that one).
 
 
11. Braden Holtby
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	G
Date:	2013-02-25		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	2 years		Playoff Wins:	6
Total Money:	$3.7M		Playoff SV%:	0.944
Cap Hit:	$1.85M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	2.3	121	64	2.46	0.920

"Braden is a young and talented goaltender who has performed very well in both the regular season and the playoffs during his NHL career."

– George McPhee

Brayden Holtby played 57 games on his entry level contract with a .923 SV%, earning a modest 2-year bridge deal similar to what James Reimer procured from the Leafs in 2011 (with 1 year less term). During the lockout shortened 2013 season, Brayden had played like a $6M goaltender, starting a majority of Washington’s games. He signed this extension in February, and perhaps could have squeezed a few more dollars out of the team had he waited until after the season to sign.
 
What the Caps got was a bargain starter who played 121 regular season games with 64 wins 36 loses and a .920 SV%, playing 13 more games in the playoffs where he sported a .944 SV%. His next contract would place him among the highest paid goalies in the league.
 
 
12. Alexander Semin
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	F
Date:	2007-10-27		Age July 1st:	24
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	21
Total Money:	$9.2M		Playoff PTS:	16
Cap Hit:	$4.6M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	13.4	135	163	501
Per 82 GP	6.7	82	99	304	19.2

"He's got a tremendous shot and he's got tremendous stick-handling ability. I've been in the game, this is my 35th year I think, and I don't know if I've ever seen anybody with as soft hands as his"

– Bruce Boudreau

George McPhee always seemed reluctant to give Alex Semin a long-term contract out of fear that too much financial certainty would inhibit his work ethic, that he always needed a carrot on the end of a stick to chase (see the Carolina Hurricanes worst contracts list). The young winger generated 73 PTS in 2007 after returning to North America (he played 52 NHL games in 2004), and signed this extension the following October. It’s possible that he was at risk of returning to Russia, but also expressed enthusiasm about playing with Ovechkin, who likely played a major role in luring him back to Washington.
 
This proved to be a very productive investment for the Capitals. The carrot-stick strategy worked. Semin would score 163 PTS in 135 GP (99 PTS per 82 GP), adding 16 more PTS in 21 playoff games. These would be the two highest scoring seasons of his entire NHL career, giving the Caps a dangerous scoring threat on their 2nd line. This would be followed by a 1-year deal.
 
 
13. Dainius Zubrus
 

Signed By:	George McPhee		Position:	F
Date:	2005-08-18		Age July 1st:	27
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	15
Total Money:	$3.7M		Playoff PTS:	8
Cap Hit:	$1.85M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	7.4	150	117	339
Per 82 GP	3.7	82	64	185	19.9

"He finished strong last year, and if he plays at that level start to finish this season, he'll be an extremely effective player"

- George McPhee

Dainius Zubrus had always been a quality NHL player who had yet to breakout offensively, previously peaking at 43 PTS in 71 GP in 2002. The Capitals managed to sign him for a reasonable price, close to what Danny Briere was paid 3 days earlier.
 
The Lithuanian center would set new career highs twice over these 2 years, scoring 57 PTs in year one and 60 PTS in year two. The Capitals managed to trade him to Buffalo at the 2007 trade deadline for a 1st round pick (unfortunately the pick was a bust). Zubrus earned himself a big $20M pay day in free agency, which you can read about on the New Jersey Devils worst contracts list. Lamoriello may have screwed up, but George McPhee played it perfectly.
 
 
14. Jakub Vrana
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	F
Date:	2019-07-16		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	5
Total Money:	$6.7M		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$3.35M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	6.8	119	88	287
Per 82 GP	3.4	82	61	198	14.9

“Jakub is a highly skilled player with a tremendous upside and is a big part of our future”

– Brian MacLellan

Jakub Vrana scored 47 PTS in 82 GP in the final year of his ELC to earn himself a modest 2-year bridge deal at the same price that Andreas Johnsson forged in Toronto a few weeks earlier (but for a shorter term). This helped set the market for Pavel Buchnevich and Kevin Fiala, who signed almost identical deals later that summer.
 
It didn’t take long for Vrana to show a significant improvement, finding success on a line with Oshie and Kuznetsov, scoring 52 PTs in 69 GP (a 62-point pace) during the 2020 season. He was later traded to Detroit where injuries stunted his growth.
 
 
15. Matt Niskanen
 

Signed By:	Brian MacLellan		Position:	D
Date:	2014-07-01		Age July 1st:	27
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	82
Total Money:	$40.3M		Playoff PTS:	24
Cap Hit:	$5.8M		Stanley Cups:	1

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	44.0	458	189	810
Per 82 GP	6.3	82	34	145	22.6

"We feel we've addressed areas that we felt we needed to address. We needed to shore up our defense, give us some depth, give us some leadership, give us some experience. I think we've accomplished that."

– Brian MacLellan

Matt Niskanen timed his previous contract to expire on the first day he was eligible for unrestricted free agency, and he hit the jackpot. He joined the Pittsburgh Penguins two years after they won the Stanley Cup and left 2 years before they’d win 2 more. Both he and Pens teammate Brooks Orpik decided to leave Pennsylvania to join the division rival Washington Capitals.
 
For the first couple years, it was starting to look like that might have been a poor investment strategy by Brian McLellan, as the Penguins eliminated Washington from the 2016 and 2017 playoffs on the road to winning back-to-back championships. The Pens were doing just fine without those departing free agents, addition by subtraction.
 
That changed in 2018 when the Caps got over the hump, eliminating Pittsburgh and winning the Stanley Cup, with Niskanen contributing 9 PTS on the run. One year later the Caps would need to shed his salary, trading the 32-year old defenseman within their own division to the Philadelphia Flyers, where he played really well before retiring.