2023/24 Week 5 Betting Report

Week five of the NHL season has been logged into the history books and my harem of betting models once again grew a little larger, as outlined in my Week 6 Preview yesterday. The new kid on the block is “Game Sum” affectionately named after the worksheet where all my game-by-game betting decisions are made. Saturday hit me hard with some longshot upsets vs Boston (-218), Colorado (-250), and LA (-238 against Cal Petersen no less). The probability of those 3 teams losing outright was 4%, or +2500 in a parlay (that number might be different with the juice). So, let’s call that a bad beat and move forward. My guard is up after looking at my historical week six results.
 
Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
 
If you’d like to read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a 330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon store. My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

 
When the first draft of this report was created on Friday night, the tone of my first 300 words was very optimistic, because up until Friday night the news was fantastic. Some of what I wrote on Friday had to be cut after Saturday’s games, which stung because of the picks email sent to subscribers on Friday for the Saturday slate. It was a bad night for me, thanks to some longshot upsets, most especially Boston losing to Montreal and Colorado getting blown out by St. Louis. All the metrics said Colorado should win big, but the Blues crushed them 8-2. The Avs have looked dominant in all the games I’ve watched. Boston went 3-1 without McAvoy, then lose to the Habs when he returns.
 
It got worse. I had a big bet on Seattle to beat the Oilers, who received a dead cat bounce after hitting rock bottom losing to San Jose. Perhaps I should have known they’d avenge that humiliation, but I also expected their previous humiliations to light a spark for the Sharks game, which also cost me a large wager. If that wasn’t enough, the LA Kings have been outstanding lately, a few games of which I had the opportunity to watch, then they played the Flyers who cost me a large bet losing to the pathetic Sharks a few days earlier. Those Flyers were also on a back-to-back with Cal Petersen in net, who is supposed to be among the worst goalies in the NHL. Cal beat the Kings.
 
This night went so bad that it required reviewing all my Tweets, blog posts, DMs, and text messages for anything that may have angered the Hockey Gods. It feels like something supernatural might be in play when you get hit with multiple bad beats in the same night, especially when you’ve encouraged people to wager their hard-earned money on these outcomes. It’s a responsibility that I take very seriously. Of all the categories that drained my balance this week, the biggest was road favorites -1.5 goals. It was more the pucklines that screwed me up than the moneylines, but three of my biggest puckline losses also lost on the moneyline, so there was no safe haven amidst that improbable confluence of upsets.
 
My Sunday Preview noted that I’m only good on over/under and road dogs +1.5 goals this time of the season, so I’ll play it safe in week six. I did manage to bounce back Sunday night, with most of the credit going to my Anaheim Ducks (more on that below). This was a good week for my over/under picks, but not because of my primary over/under algorithm (now nicknamed OU Prime), who was overruled on a few occasions because of an algorithm who formerly held the title of Prime, the 5-game average. That one was my primary for roughly 1.3 seasons, until losing the job in a profitability investigation last All-Star break. The 5-game average is faster at reacting and profiting from emerging trends, but is also vulnerable to overreactions on temporary peaks/valleys.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Anaheim Ducks, +$670
 
My team of the week is the Anaheim Ducks, almost entirely because of their Sunday night victory against San Jose. Despite the Sharks winning a couple games, my steadfast belief they’re among the worst teams in the salary cap era has not wavered. My foot remains on the gas pedal, but easing up slightly. I bet the Ducks to win their first 2 games this week, both of which they lost, but my bets were small. The big bet was vs Sharks on the puckline -1.5 goals at +124 on Sunday, which they covered, including a winning double bet on under 6.5 goals. I went 2-0-1 on their over/under and am not currently considering disembarking their bandwagon. The quack attack is back Jack!
 
Finishing a few dollars behind Anaheim was Vancouver, another team I’ve been loudly supporting the last 2 weeks. I live in Vancouver and watch almost all their games. Whatever Rick Tocchet is selling, this roster is buying, especially Thatcher Demko. My money was on Vancouver to win all 4 of their games this week, and they went 3-1. It sucks the one game they lost was Saturday to Toronto when I encouraged people to bet them in my Friday night picks piece. Sucks, but the Canucks jumped right back on the horse Sunday, and I was riding.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, -$919
 
This could have been a much better week for me had it not been for the Montreal Canadiens. It wasn’t just their wins and losses, my advisory team of over/under algorithms got humiliated trying to navigate this shit-storm (RIP Jim Lahey), losing big on both overs and unders. They had been a little frisky entering the week, so I decided to bet them to beat Tampa at home at +136, the Lightning whooped them. There were stories in the news about how uncompetitive Montreal was in that game, so I bet them to lose the next 2, and they upset Detroit and Boston. I did win a little money back when they lost to Vancouver Sunday, but I’m not sure what to make of this team.
 
My second worst team of the week was the Florida Panthers, and mostly because of over/under. Their unders got hot on a 5-1 run with low scoring games in weeks three and four, then their overs went 4-0 in week five. If you simply deleted Florida from my sample, this would have been an outstanding week for my OU picks. With Florida my rate of return was 4.2%, without them my return would have been 14%. Their average goals per game (for + against) went from 4.8 to 7.4 from one 5-game stretch to the next. Their offense improved, and Bobrovsky got worse. That happens sometimes.
 
 

My Week 5 Results

*Note* “Overall Market Bets” based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

The category chart above helps paint the picture of what happened. This was a bad week to bet home favorites -1.5 goals, and a great week to bet road dogs -1.5 goals. It should be noted if you bet $100 on every underdog alt puckline -1.5 goals this season, you’re up nearly $1,000. This has also been a good year for road dogs +1.5 goals and a terrible year for home favorites -1.5 goals; as betting $100 on each would have generated a -$2,500 loss for the full season. I’m trying to lay off max bets on favorite pucklines this week, but was already seduced by a few on Monday and Tuesday. At least I refrained from going “all in”. Sometimes restraint is the better part of valor.
 

Those of you who have been reading all my picks should recognize some of the results above. It was an awful week for me betting Flyers to win or lose, but at least I was 2-0-1 on their over/under, so they weren’t among my worst 2 teams of the week. The Washington Capitals were the best team to bet overall, and I did pick them a few times, one of which after they played the night before. That line (Isles -185) was so heavily taxed that I bet Caps ML out of spite, in part because NYI might suck. Caps won 4-1. I also bet tired Dallas to beat rested Minnesota (because the line once again made no sense) and Stars won 8-3. I hit the over there too.
 
 

Team By Team Profitability Rankings

These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
 
 

 

Me vs Myself

 

After week one, I created a new “me vs myself” section in my weekly report to discuss my performance relative to my betting models. On one hand, I should be proud of any success my models have, but at the same time, my goal is to be better at making picks than ANY of my betting models, but my full season $2,500 is dwarfed by Betting Venues $12,000. If you’re wondering, yes my plan is to start tailing that model more often. It only cares about past matches between the two teams in that city. The Tailing History model just bets historically profitable line ranges as presented in my weekly Preview.
 
Two new models were introduced to my family of advisors this past week, the first of which was discussed in my Sunday Preview, “Game Sum”. It just adds up visitor/home moneylines/pucklines for road games involving the road team and home games involving the home team, betting the best return. It cares only about the current season, while my others are based on the past. I needed a voice that lives in the now. If Game Sum struggles, it might get replaced with a “fair line estimator” based model, but that won’t happen this week. Though had I put a smaller cap on how much it could bet on road dogs -1.5 goals, it would have performed much better. It’s a work in progress.
 
The other new model that was not outlined yesterday but has been teased for a few weeks is Shorting Travel. One of my advisors Nizzy put me onto this travel angle a couple weeks ago, but building a model to exploit the weakness did take some trial and error. The simplest version that was first attempted failed. All my historical data has travel metrics for each team each game. How far did they travel for that game, and what is their cumulative distance travelled on each road trip. The primary focus is home teams getting home from long road trips, but we also short road teams engaged on long expeditions.
 
This one is going to be very difficult to explain how it comes up with the pick and the amount. The others are relatively simple, but this one required investigating every single traveling scenario and which line ranges are profitable under those conditions. It took a few hours to go through every possible permutation (including a unique set of instructions for back-to-backs) but my diligence prevailed. It made no bet on 86% of games, but the ones it liked generated a very impressive 17% profit on the historical sample. It only made 2 bets in week six, walking away with a healthy gain.
 
Here are my picks for Tuesday. I think the Hockey Gods may have been upset that I handed out a full slate of gambling picks for Saturday November 11th which was Remembrance Day when we pay tribute to the military. That’s the most plausible explanation for how my picks email was cursed by higher powers. Let’s regress back to the mean tomorrow. Note that I’m now consulting an advisory team of over/under algorithms and soon will start providing more data about their decisions.
 
 
CGY @ MTL:
 

Speaking of sniffing value on dogs, we got a hit. Montreal is 5-4 at home and Calgary is 2-7 on the road. That math says Montreal should be -200. It opened at +124 and has already moved to +130. Not sure why people would like the road Flames here. The Habs recently defeated the mighty Bruins but they also play awful every so often. Hard team to get a read on, but I’m tailing Betting Venues and Game Sum here. The OU Council is voting 6-2 for over 6 goals and that’s my pick as well.
 
 
BOS @ BUF:
 

Yesterday I decided the best strategy for week six was to try and lay off big bets on favorites -1.5 goals, and sure enough the first Tuesday game analyzed had unanimous agreement among my models on Boston -1.5 goals at +164. What makes me nervous about that was losing a big bet on Boston -1.5 goals vs Montreal Saturday. But I have also been terrible at picking Sabres games this season, so I’ll make a smaller bet on the puckline and hope the models are right. FYI, Betting Venues loves Boston because they covered -1.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 trips to Buffalo. My over/under algorithms are voting 7-1 for under 6 goals, but they all think it will be close to 6, and the dissenting opinion is the 5-game average, which is the fastest to react to emerging trends, but also the one vulnerable to overreactions on random variance. Note this has since moved to 6.5, so I definitely like that under.
 
 
PIT @ CBJ:
 

My strategy this week is trying to sniff out value on dogs, and this was not one of them. The Blue Jackets opened at +145 and should be more like +180 according to my fair line estimator. I’m just going to put a small bet on the Penguins ML. There is serious division among my OU algorithms on the best choice here. OU Prime is taking under 6.5 goals but 5 of 8 like the over.
 
 
VEG @ WSH:
  

While I have bet the Caps to win a few games lately, the “fair line estimator” says Caps +160 not +136, so there’s no value there. I’ll put a mid-sized bet on the Vegas ML -162. We also had a unanimous 8-0 decision on under 6 goals, so I’m going to bet double on that.
 
 
ARI @ DAL:
 

We got another hit on the underdog value, as the Yotes opened at +205 when they should be +160. Okay, so the line has moved to +190 in the last 30 minutes. The closer that gets to +160, the less value there is. There is also significant dispute regarding the correct over/under wager, so I’ll refrain from sharing one.
 
 
ANA @ NSH:
 

The Ducks opened at +145 and my fair line estimator thinks they should be favored -140. I’ll jump on that because I’m aboard the Ducks bandwagon and am not sure Nashville is any good. Easy pick. Also, the over/under algorithms are encouraging me to bet double on over 6 goals.
 
 
NJ @ WPG:
 

If Hughes and Hischier were making the trip to Winnipeg, New Jersey would be my pick here, but they’re not. Their team is still pretty good without those two, but not enough that I’d bet them to win. I’m taking Jets moneyline at -125, and over 6.5 goals (the OU Council voted 7-1 on that outcome).
 
TB @ STL:
 

The Lightning are too unreliable to bet -135 as road favorites (it has already moved to -142) and I’m in disagreement. Blues are 5-2 at home and Tampa is 2-5 on the road. By that Math St. Louis should be a -250 favorite. Game Sum is going all in on the Blues -1.5 goals, but I’m satisfied with a minimum bet on the ML +120. This dog has value! There was division among the OU algorithms on the best choice, but the best two liked over 6.5, so that’s my pick but it wasn’t unanimous.
 
 
FLA @ SJ:
 

I’m going to take Florida because if they blow them out, I would feel stupid having picked the Sharks. But it does need to be noted, the fair line estimator things their ML should be -150 and their PL -1.5 goals at +150 (not -270 and -105), so there’s a big tax here. Tailing History is making a max bet on Sharks -1.5 goals because historically this is a good week to bet home longshots -1.5, but that alone is not enough to lure me to the dark side. I’m going to bet Florida -1.5 goals, but not going “all in”. I’ll be taking under 6.5 goals, but it was not unanimous. The 5-game algorithm still remembers the Pittsburgh thrashing.