Week seven of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books and today is the first day of the second quarter, which means my
“Profitability Rankings” below are my final Q1 ranks, and will be presented in
exactly that order when my first quarterly report is released in the next 7-10
days. I’m already 5,000 words into that project, providing a deeper look at
each team. The San Jose Sharks finish in first place, the Montreal Canadiens in
last place. My rate of return on the season has dropped to 1.4%, which is
disappointing but not a disaster. All these models are relatively new, and I
need to get comfortable with their strengths and weaknesses.
Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
If you’d like to
read more about the first 3 years of this thought experiment, I wrote a
330-page book outlining the results from every angle. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends,
team-by-team analysis. To read more, visit the Amazon
store. My blog has been moved to Substack this
season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free
subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned
that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and
ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification
each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the
algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
My week 7 preview identified that this would be a good
week to bet road teams, and that was indeed true. That’s a big reason why
Tailing History (aka Tails) was king of the models. My investment in road teams
was larger than home teams, but I wound up losing money on both. My preview anticipated
this would be a bad week to bet dogs -1.5 goals, and that was also true (with
most of the losses coming from home dogs). If you bet $100 on every underdog
-1.5 goals this week, you lost nearly -$1,500.
Tails and Game Sum cleaned up on faves -1.5 goals and I did too, but not nearly
as much.
Tuesday I sent a picks email for all the Wednesday
games exclusively to my free subscribers, and while I came out ahead betting
wins and losses, I went 2-11-1 on my over/under picks (after going 8-4 Sunday
and Monday). There were no games on Thursday, but Friday I wrote “Wednesday
over/under post-mortem” on my “to do” list.
But this Friday was a little different, there were games all day for the
holiday in America. Before the analysis of my shitty Wednesday even began, my
Friday OU picks started cashing. By the end of the night, I was 10-5, hitting 3
of 4 “double” wagers. The post-mortem was scratched off the list before it even
began.
All that being said, Friday wasn’t a great night. My
success in over/under had to pay for two substantial losses, Chicago upsetting
Toronto (again) and Montreal not covering the puckline vs San Jose. Both were
bets that I shared on Twitter, but neglecting to share that the Leafs have a
history of choking when I make big bets on them to win, and Montreal being dead
last in my profitability rankings. At least my Tweet noted that Montreal is bad
at covering -1.5 on the road and my fair line estimator only thought they
should be a -125 favorite, which was worrisome. Boston (7-1 at home) losing to
Detroit (4-4 on the road) also struck out, as did Washington to beat Edmonton
(at least Skinner recorded a shutout for my fantasy team).
By Saturday afternoon when I sent another picks email
to subscribers, I was up $91 for the week on my over/under picks. By Sunday
night I was down -$839, going 0-3 when betting
double. The teams that caused the most trouble for my advisory algorithms; New
Jersey unders going 2-1, Winnipeg unders going 3-0, Anaheim overs going 3-0,
Carolina overs going 2-1, and Minnesota unders going 2-0. That pretty much
explains all my difficulty this week. Too many teams transitioning from overs
to unders and visa versa. I’m planning to start tracking which over/under
algorithms are better for each team. Here was how they all performed this week.
There was some discussion in my Sunday preview about this new “Prime Line Value” algorithm. All these are going into
my weekly database, so I can track which combinations perform the best when
they are in agreement, who is the best when my primary is wrong, and which
algorithms work better for each team. I’m currently slumping on over/unders,
but there is a plan underway to maximize the advice I’m receiving from this
advisory team. This Prime Line Value might become the new primary if it
continues performing like this. It’s just bizarre how often it likes unders.
My Team of
the Week: Los Angeles Kings, +$1,094
The Los Angeles Kings have ascended to 2nd in my
profitability rankings and might be the best team in the league. They have
certainly passed Vegas as the team I trust the most to deliver on my picks,
with Boston’s reliability also wavering. The only thing that bothered me previously
was Pheonix Copley being terrible, and most of my bets being logged 30ish hours
before puck drop. Doubt would creep into my mind when Talbot had started a few
in a row and the risk of the radioactive back-up getting the call climbed. But
Copley has only given up 1 goal in his last 2 starts, so maybe my nerves can
calm.
My second best team of the week was the Seattle
Kraken, which is actually a team that I’m still in the process of trying figure
out, but had a good read this week pulling a nice profit from both betting them
to win and lose. This was a playoff team last year that upset the defending
champ in round one and won at a 36% clip in the 1st quarter. It did cost me
some money early in the schedule learning this isn’t the team we saw last
spring. They have a lot of the same pieces, so it’s plausible they’ll get hot
eventually, I’ll just need to see it to believe it.
My Worst
Team of the Week: New Jersey Devils, -$900
The New Jersey Devils threw a wrench in my proficiency
this week, betting them to beat Detroit and Columbus after Jack Hughes returned
to the line-up, losing both (turns out Alex Lyon and Elvis Merzlikins are
starting Vezina campaigns). That compelled me to bet the frisky Sabres to beat
them on Saturday, but then Nico Hischier returned and the Devils destroyed
them. I’m hoping now that the pair is back, it’s safe to make big bets on
Devils to win again. I was betting Devils in 75% of their games until those two
injures. If both are healthy, I’m back on the wagon.
The Boston Bruins were my second worst team of the
week, which hurts because this was one of my safe harbors in October. I can
probably just cut and paste what I wrote about Vegas last week and change the
names. The Bs played 4 times and lost 3. The only game I bet them to lose was
the game they won. The only reason they weren’t my #1 worst team of the week
was going 3-1 on their over/under (with my primary algorithm recommending the
over each time). This previously impenetrable defense has given up 5+ goals in
3 of their last 4 games.
My Week 7 Results
*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
There wasn’t much here for me to brag about, as all my
success came from home favorites -1.5 goals and road dogs ML. My Week 7 Preview
indicated this would be a good week to bet road teams, which it was. What
killed my road performance was San Jose covering +1.5 twice at home, Toronto
losing Chicago, New Jersey losing to Detroit, and Colorado losing to Nashville.
I’m certainly not happy about my over/under performance, but as previously
mentioned, I’m expanding my algorithm tracking to add much more depth to my
decisions.
Some of the team results above you’ll recognize from
my best/worst teams of the week. Nashville-Detroit exceeding expectations and
Boston-Toronto disappointing was the combo that dealt the death blow. Thanks
God almighty for the LA Kings. They might be my new favorite team to bet on,
the one that makes me feel the safest. I’m concerned about Boston and Vegas. What
happened to my over/under wagers can be explained pretty easily looking at the
results below. The two best bets were under 6.5 goals and over 7, whereas over
6.5 and under 7 were my two worst bets.
Team By Team Profitability Rankings
These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.
Me vs Myself
For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these make their decisions. For the full breakdown,
click here. Below is the chart showing how they all performed in week 7, breaking
it down by category.
This was a roller-coaster ride for my Betting Venues
model, who many of you know by now is the leader in this “Me vs Myself” section
by a mile. A few days into the week, it was down over $2,000 because the
underdog pucklines -1.5 goals stopped cashing, at least until Friday, then won
$2,600. Then it lost all that money back on Saturday. Home teams did most of
the damage, ML and -1.5 goals. Tailing History knew to avoid dogs -1.5 goals
and could have saved B.V from a few mistakes. Tails also did a much better job
at favorites -1.5 goals, as the historically profitable line ranges replicated
their effectiveness more than past match-ups between these teams in that city.
The Game Sum model has posted a significant loss in
all 3 weeks it has been alive, so it might be time to modify the decision
matrix. There are two possible modifications I’m considering: first being the
exact same model, but using my betting results instead of the $100 on every
outcome data it is currently using. Or it can use the “fair line estimator” to
just bet whatever option is offering the most value. Although my suspicion is
that version would often bet the same outcome as the original formula. There’s
not a big rush, as long as you know it’s a big loser when going through my
picks.
The data that’s feeding Game Sum does have meaning and
value. It was made using data I’ll regularly check before making my own picks.
What’s a good bet when this team is on the road and that team is at home? What
bothers me the most is that it’s losing a large sum on both underdog and
favorites ML. At first it seemed like the problem could be fixed by limiting
bet size on underdog pucklines -1.5 goals but there’s bigger problems. I could
always install some safety protocols to minimize bet size on categories
producing the largest loss. We’ll see, I’ve got some time to think about this.
This is also where I share picks for Tuesday. My
report is already getting pretty long, so I’m not breaking down the entire Tuesday
slate, just those I’m most interested in betting. Sorry, I’m skipping Vancouver
and Anaheim. These were two of my bandwagon teams that have both been
regressing. I’m recusing myself from sharing my bet. The models were very
divided too.
NYI @ NJ:
The Devils have Hughes and Hischier back in the
line-up, crushing Buffalo 7-2 in their last game. Seeing that overwhelming
victory with both back compels me to jump aboard the bandwagon, however for
this game specifically, I’m going to have to make a minimum bet on the Isles ML
+142. A big reason why is that the Islanders are 6-2 in New Jersey since
October 2019, so Betting Venues is taking the NYI ML too. Game Sum also loves
the Isles ML as they are 4-5 on the road while Jersey is 4-6 at home (where
they have struggled in past seasons, albeit with a worse team). Isles having a
better road record than NJD’s home record means the fair line estimator thinks
they should be a slight favorite, not a +142 dog.
It’s intimidating to bet against the Devils, but this
should be Sorokin (.918 SV% last 30 days) vs Vanecek (.881 SV% last 30 days).
The OU Council voted 4-4 on under 6.5, but my primary likes the over and so
does Prime Line Value, which is crushing overs this season (as discussed in my
preview yesterday). Both line value algorithms like that over at +105. Tailing
History also took the over and is the best performing OU algorithm this season.
CAR @ PHI:
The Carolina Hurricanes are 5-6 on the road and the
Flyers are 5-5 at home, which would make them a slight favorite by that simple
math. While I do like Carolina as a team, paying -162 for their road moneyline
is too expensive for my comfort. Tailing History and Game Sum have max bets on
Philly -1.5 goals, with the GS justification being Flyers have been a great bet
-1.5 goals at home (hitting in 4 of 5 home wins at +260, +360, +240, and +160),
while road Carolina opponents have also been profitable at -1.5 (hitting at
+475, +300, +230, and +240). I’m not that brave though. I considered tailing
Betting Venues on the PL +1.5, but ultimately settled on the ML +136.
This will almost certainly be Carter Hart in goal,
though his SV% last 30 days has dropped to .896. I’m not sure which Carolina
goalie this will be, but Kochetkov has a .917 SV% last 30 days while Raanta is
a concerning .846, getting lit up for 8 goals on 14 shots last start against
Tampa. Seems like for that reason they’ll go back to Kochetkov, which compels
me to bet under 6 goals. But I hate that bet if they come back with Raanta.
Consider yourself warned.
PIT @ NSH:
The fair line estimator thinks Nashville should be
favored here because they’re 7-4 at home while Pittsburgh is 5-4 on the road.
This will almost certainly be Saros in goal for the Preds, and while he does
have an .890 SV% last 30 days, it’s .920 in his last 3 games. He’s trending in
a positive direction. All that said, Nashville ML was tempting at +100 because
they’ve won 5 in a row. That’s why Game
Sum is betting Nashville ML. What pushed me to Pittsburgh was the other 2
models going big on Pens -1.5 goals. They are 2-1 in Nashville since Oct 2019,
covering both wins -1.5 goals at +272 and +200 (last year). I’ll make a smaller
bet on the Pens -1.5 goals, taking a swing at a +200 payout.
The OU Council is voting 7-1 on under 6.5 but the one
holdout happens to be the best performing. But as mentioned in my preview
yesterday, it’s loving overs because of Omicron in 2021 that probably won’t
repeat with the league dropping protocols.
STL @ MIN:
The OU Council is very divided on this game. Minnesota
overs have been awesome this season, but they have gone under 6.5 in 3 of their
last 4 games. Given the erratic nature of both team’s goaltending, it’s hard to
trust either side. Binnington looked like he was starting to unravel then
played well against Chicago (helping me win a puckline bet that was shared with
subscribers). The reason I’m even sharing a pick here is because Betting Venues
and Game Sum love St. Louis -1.5 goals (the actual alt puckline isn’t up yet,
but should be around +320). Blues have covered -1.5 in 4 of their last 6 trips
to Minnesota. We hit a Blues PL bet on Sunday, let’s go for another on Tuesday.
The fair line estimator thinks the Wild ML should be +122 not -162. They’ve
lost 7 in a row. Maybe there’s historical data that 7 game losing streaks tend
to end on the 8th game. That’s the only way the line makes any sense.
DAL @ WPG:
The Dallas Stars are a really good hockey team, and
the fair line estimator thinks they should be -138 instead of -118, so there’s potential
value there. The models are divided, but I’m going to tail Betting Venues with
a smaller wager on Jets ML at -102. Jets have been one of my best teams to bet
on this season, and I have yet to be chased off their bandwagon. Stars are good
though. What’s more interesting is the 8-0 support for over 6 goals. The line
is probably because this should be Hellebuyck vs Oettinger, the catch being
Oettinger only has an .893 SV% in the last 30 days. If you’re expecting a
goaltending duel between Vezina contenders, maybe bet the under. I just like
+100 for over 6.
TB @ ARI:
The Tampa Bay Lightning are playing tonight in Denver,
then flying to Arizona for a back-to-back. They did the same thing last year,
winning 4-3 in Colorado then losing 1-0 in Mullett Arena. Connor Ingram was the
starting goalie in that game, and is Arizona’s confirmed starter tomorrow (he
just shutout Vegas and has a .927 SV% last 30 days). All 4 models are taking
the Yotes, even Shorting Travel is getting in on the action with Tampa playing
a back-to-back flying 947 km. I’ll take the Arizona ML at +114, which the fair
line estimator thinks should be -125. Jonas Johansson is the confirmed starter
for Tampa (.871 SV% last 30 days), which is why I’ll be taking over 6.5 (but
Ingram and Tampa being tired from chasing MacKinnon and Makar around the ice
tonight may favor the under).
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