Week twelve of the NHL season has been logged into the
history books and with it, we say goodbye to the year 2023. Some of you might
be a little hungover today, but the Winter Classic was the only game on the
slate, which gave us all plenty of time to research the busy slate of games tomorrow.
Saturday night I sent a picks email exclusively to my free subscribers and my
two biggest bets were winners, but my over/under picks were 4-5, leading me to
small loss for the night. Otherwise, my conservative play style has mostly been
a success in the 2nd quarter.
Before we go any
further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m
not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet.
My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every
single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what
worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome,
to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit
vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
My blog has been
moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to
sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for
traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge
everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers
receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if
Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t
leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on
my blog.
Another new year is here and one of my annual
traditions is posting a list of sports predictions. It started with an easy 11
sports predictions for 2011, but now we’re up to 24 predictions for 2024. This
is getting to be more and more work the deeper we delve into this century, but
alas I’m up to the task. Olympic years are a little easier. Today is a good day
to think about the year ahead, and you can read more here. If you’re into movies and such, my nephew and I do a similar gimmick
on his blog. We are predicting a little housecleaning over at Disney in the
year ahead, read more here.
The week started off with underdogs jumping out to a big lead on the moneyline, before regressing later in the week. By the time the dust settled and the year ended, favorites had emerged victorious. Monday to Friday, my investment in favorites moneyline was too big, but my profit in underdogs +1.5 goals was enough to make up the difference. December 2023 might be the least amount of fake money I’ve laid on pucklines -1.5 goals in any month since October 2019, except maybe playoffs. Certainly, in seasons where tanking was more prevalent, those favorites were winning more games convincingly. Exploiting bad teams has generally been my best skill as a bettor, so this sudden onset of parity has been problematic for me. I need new revenue streams. That’s where the models come into play.
My Team of
the Week: San Jose Sharks, +$658
The San Jose Sharks were my most profitable team this
week, not leapfrogging Vegas until the Sunday late game, thanks entirely to a
late Josh Manson empty net goal. All my gains on favorites -1.5 goals would
have evaporated if Manson missed that open net. The Sharks losing comfortably
to Edmonton in Magnus Chrona’s first start (a pick shared in my report last
week) was my other big puckline hit of the week, so I’m starting to get
comfortable again on that front. Maybe not too comfortable. I did not do a write-up
for Sharks-Wings tomorrow, but I’ll have a minimum wager on Wings ML -192
(which is a little expensive for road Wings).
The Vegas Golden Knights only played 2 games this
week, but I went 4 for 4 on my picks. I hit the Ducks ML +180 and the over on
Wednesday, which was the best pick in my betting preview last week. I then
doubled down on LA +1.5 goals and the under, which hit the next night (also
shared in my betting report). Then the team was off until the Winter Classic.
They have lost 5 of their last 7 games as the mid-season Stanley Cup hangover
continues. They have been without their best goalie Adin Hill who only played a
few minutes in December (stopping 2 of 3 shots). I have bet their opponent in 7
of their last 10 games.
My Worst
Team of the Week: New York Rangers, -$400
My struggles picking the winner of New York Rangers
games continues, as I’m posting a significant loss on the season both betting
them to win and lose. They are first place in the NHL going 25-10 thus far. 78%
of my money bet for the full schedule was on Rangers to win and yet somehow,
I’m running a negative balance on that pick. I’m doing well on both their overs
and unders which is why they aren’t lower in my Profitability Ranks, but it’s
frustrating. I may need to schedule an autopsy sometime in the next week to
figure out how the hell this is happening.
My second worst team was the Winnipeg Jets, thanks
entirely to their loss vs Chicago (sustaining a $400 loss). I screwed up and
bet Minnesota Sunday, because I was so busy preparing my Sunday picks on
Saturday afternoon that I hadn’t even noticed Kaprizov was injured a few hours
earlier when picking Wild ML. Thankfully it was just a minimum wager (because
otherwise I’m on the Jets bandwagon) and no Kaprizov helped cash the under, so
I came out of that game with a $5 gain. I’m not too worried about their loss to
Chicago, but a few more of those and perhaps it will be time to start pumping
the brakes on my Jets love.
*Note* “Overall Market Bets”
based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
Favorites -1.5 goals finished the week as my best category, but that was from only 3 bets, Edmonton vs San Jose, Colorado vs San Jose, and Ottawa vs Buffalo (which was a tip from my Expected Goals model that I tailed). The category as a whole did turn a profit, thanks to “mild” road favorites and “big” home favorites (the dividing line between mild and big is -150 and +150), but aside from San Jose, I’m not convinced it’s safe to jump whole-heartedly back in love with faves -1.5 goals. On the whole, it was actually a much better week for favorites +1.5 goals on the alt puckline than -1.5 goals.
Note to self: This was a good week to bet Pittsburgh, Boston, Carolina, and Ottawa, all teams that have shaken my confidence at some point this quarter, but were solid bets in week 12. My lack of faith in Pittsburgh and Carolina was costly, Florida too. Meanwhile my faith in the Canadiens, Islanders, Jets, Lightning, and Canucks were similarly costly. The Toronto Maple Leafs were the most profitable to bet against, which is why I’m taking the Kings tomorrow. The Sharks went 0-3 but didn’t crack the overall “bet against” leaderboard because the line prices were very expensive. You needed to go big to pull a similarly sized profit.
Team By Team Profitability Rankings
The week started off with underdogs jumping out to a big lead on the moneyline, before regressing later in the week. By the time the dust settled and the year ended, favorites had emerged victorious. Monday to Friday, my investment in favorites moneyline was too big, but my profit in underdogs +1.5 goals was enough to make up the difference. December 2023 might be the least amount of fake money I’ve laid on pucklines -1.5 goals in any month since October 2019, except maybe playoffs. Certainly, in seasons where tanking was more prevalent, those favorites were winning more games convincingly. Exploiting bad teams has generally been my best skill as a bettor, so this sudden onset of parity has been problematic for me. I need new revenue streams. That’s where the models come into play.
My Week 12 Results
Favorites -1.5 goals finished the week as my best category, but that was from only 3 bets, Edmonton vs San Jose, Colorado vs San Jose, and Ottawa vs Buffalo (which was a tip from my Expected Goals model that I tailed). The category as a whole did turn a profit, thanks to “mild” road favorites and “big” home favorites (the dividing line between mild and big is -150 and +150), but aside from San Jose, I’m not convinced it’s safe to jump whole-heartedly back in love with faves -1.5 goals. On the whole, it was actually a much better week for favorites +1.5 goals on the alt puckline than -1.5 goals.
Note to self: This was a good week to bet Pittsburgh, Boston, Carolina, and Ottawa, all teams that have shaken my confidence at some point this quarter, but were solid bets in week 12. My lack of faith in Pittsburgh and Carolina was costly, Florida too. Meanwhile my faith in the Canadiens, Islanders, Jets, Lightning, and Canucks were similarly costly. The Toronto Maple Leafs were the most profitable to bet against, which is why I’m taking the Kings tomorrow. The Sharks went 0-3 but didn’t crack the overall “bet against” leaderboard because the line prices were very expensive. You needed to go big to pull a similarly sized profit.
These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team,
including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability
Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened
this week.
For those of you who are new here, the “Me vs Myself”
section outlines my competition against my betting models, in my vain attempt
to prove my own decision making is superior to the models that I’ve created. Me
vs my creations. But rather than explain myself every week, a new post was
published outlining how all these models make their decisions. For the full
breakdown, click here. Below is the graphic for how my best performing and most prominent
models have performed in this shortened week. The Fair Line Estimator model is
in my starting line-up, but I have not yet merged it into the worksheet that
makes the graphic.
I was very excited to see Betting Venues have another
strong week, officially ending its second quarter slide. It did very well
betting favorites -1.5 goals, and I’m hoping this resurgence is sustainable so
the advice can become trustworthy again. Keep in mind, this was updated so it
includes data from the current season, so this should continue getting smarter
as the season grows longer. It might even be better if I detach it from the
older games. Does the shortened 2021 schedule matter? Several buildings were
empty for most of the season. Is that data still relevant?
My Game Sum model was officially terminated this
morning, but will continue with over/under, where it holds a seat on the “Over
Under Council”. I’m unsure about algorithm deactivation ethics, whether
deleting Game Sum constitutes murder. This is the new world artificial
intelligence has thrust upon us, at what point does A.I constitute life with
human rights? Should the stupid versions of A.I not be entitled to those same
rights? Game Sum was a concept that I believed in, hence why I continued
sharing the picks when the results were lacking. What has been the most
profitable wager involving either of these teams in the last 30 days? Feels
super relevant, right? But maybe the answer is, sportsbooks also know what’s
been costing them money, adjusting lines to compensate.
I’m up to 15 active models with only my top 5 being
shared in my picks graphics. All my goalie-based models suck, and that might
just be the nature of goaltending replicability. There might not be any winner
behind that curtain, but I’ll continue trying until something emerges. I’m
still building new models every week, but mostly they’ll be replacing those
that have been deemed completely useless. One new model build today was
“Expected Goals Line Value” which estimates what the line should be based on
xGs last 30 days, then makes a bet. Like the other one, it is trained on each
scenario, and if it makes a minimum bet, it was minimally profitable. It only
scales up bets when profitable within that permutation.
There was a scoring surge for 2 weeks heading into the
Christmas break, and it did subside when play resumed (which I actually
predicted in my preview last week, having noted a decrease in post-Christmas
scoring last season). Unders finished the week 22-18-5 for $191 profit if you
bet them all. My primary algorithm (aka OU Prime) had a bad week, but I
deviated quite a lot, following Max Profit on some unders (anticipating unders
to be better). Most models got stung by the drop in scoring, except Full Season
Average, which is one of the worst performing for the full schedule.
This is also where my picks for tomorrow are shared,
and we’ve got a busy Tuesday to compensate for a light Monday. I’m not sharing
picks for every game, just my favorites. The good news is that because the
Monday schedule only has a single game, there’s less new information coming in
while my picks are being calculated. I don’t need to keep checking what’s
happening today when I’m outlining picks for tomorrow, which helps. It sucks
when you do the work and break down all the angles for a game, but there’s a
major injury while you’re doing the work, requiring recalibration.
CAR @ NYR:
BOS @ CBJ:
I’m not sharing a pick for this because I’m terrible
betting Columbus to win or lose, and there was significant division among my
models. Except over 6.5 goals received strong support.
MTL @ DAL:
Didn’t know I’d like this game until checking out my models, but there’s a lot of love for the line value on Montreal, especially on the puckline +1.5 goals at +110. Wedgewood has started 7 in a row, and the new kid has to play eventually. That’s also why I’m taking over 6.5 goals. My renovated Expected Goals model has Dallas +1.5 goals, and while they do enjoy the xG advantage over Montreal, home teams in that range aren’t profitable. When either xG model doesn’t scale up their bet size, it’s because those circumstances were barely profitable. The Habs are a good road team, covering +1.5 in 4 of their 6 road games on this current trip. There in lies my biggest concern (aside from Dallas being good), Shorting Travel has a big bet on Dallas -1.5 goals because the Habs have been on the road a long time, with Christmas in between (adding more travel).
CHI @ NSH:
At first glance this game was going to be a stay away because the price on Nashville felt a little expensive, but seeing Chicago has rolled out Mrazek 3 games in a row, this will almost certainly be Soderblom. My only reservation limiting my bet size is that the xG models don’t love Nashville. One is putting a minimum bet on Preds +1.5 goals (which means it’s barely profitable) and the other is taking Chicago. Under 6.5 has been a better bet with these teams in the last 30 days (see Max Profit), but I’m going to take the over because probably Soderblom.
CGY @ MIN:
Minnesota would be my pick here if not for the Kaprizov injury, so I’ll be taking the Flames ML +120 (which has already moved to +102). My models support Minnesota stronger than Calgary, but none of them have seen the Kaprizov news yet, or at least had time to absorb the impact into their projection. I’m also taking under 6 goals.
WPG @ TB:
There was substantial love among my models for Jets -1.5 goals, with both Max Profit and Betting Venues running a big positive balance on that pick in the last 30 days. I’m going to tail at +185, but will limit my bet size because this should be Vasilevskiy. The good news is that the Jets have won their last 2 home games vs Tampa, with Hellebuyck beating Vasy straight up in both (covering -1.5 goals in both while the Jets were underdogs). This time they are favored at -130, but the last 30 days fair line estimator thinks that should be -200. I also love under 6.5 goals.
NYI @ COL:
I’ve already reached my goal for picks shared, but decided this one needed to be added because of my overwhelming model support for Colorado, including both my Expected Goals models and Max Profit laying the maximum on Avs. The only reservation is that there’s a high probability of Prosvetov in goal (which is why I’m staying away from the puckline), but that only strengthens my support for over 6 goals.
FLA @ ARI:
I’m betting the Arizona ML and most of my models are also taking the Coyotes, but Florida is a good team and I’m not in love with that pick. The only reason I’m sharing a pick for this game is because I love under 6.5 goals. This is among the most my Over Under Council has loved a pick.
TOR @ LA:
There’s not much to write here. This is more games than I was planning to cover, but with the state of the Leafs goaltending and their slumping, I like the Kings moneyline -130. Most of my models also prefer LA. The over/under on the other hand is a little dicey and I’m taking over 6.5 but don’t love the pick.
PHI @ EDM:
This game was targeted because the Oilers are returning from a long road trip, and some of my other models also like the Flyers (who are a good road team). Though both my Expected Goals models are making max bets on Edmonton (one puckline, one moneyline). I’m not sure what’s worse, Edmonton returning from a long road trip or Flyers being on a long road trip. Granted this permutation was examined in the model construction and it was deemed visitors -1.5 goals was still the most profitable choice. I’m putting a minimum bet on Philly ML +160 because the last 30 days fair line estimator thinks that should be +133. But Edmonton can be scary. I’m more confident in under 6.5 goals.
Me vs Myself
Didn’t know I’d like this game until checking out my models, but there’s a lot of love for the line value on Montreal, especially on the puckline +1.5 goals at +110. Wedgewood has started 7 in a row, and the new kid has to play eventually. That’s also why I’m taking over 6.5 goals. My renovated Expected Goals model has Dallas +1.5 goals, and while they do enjoy the xG advantage over Montreal, home teams in that range aren’t profitable. When either xG model doesn’t scale up their bet size, it’s because those circumstances were barely profitable. The Habs are a good road team, covering +1.5 in 4 of their 6 road games on this current trip. There in lies my biggest concern (aside from Dallas being good), Shorting Travel has a big bet on Dallas -1.5 goals because the Habs have been on the road a long time, with Christmas in between (adding more travel).
At first glance this game was going to be a stay away because the price on Nashville felt a little expensive, but seeing Chicago has rolled out Mrazek 3 games in a row, this will almost certainly be Soderblom. My only reservation limiting my bet size is that the xG models don’t love Nashville. One is putting a minimum bet on Preds +1.5 goals (which means it’s barely profitable) and the other is taking Chicago. Under 6.5 has been a better bet with these teams in the last 30 days (see Max Profit), but I’m going to take the over because probably Soderblom.
Minnesota would be my pick here if not for the Kaprizov injury, so I’ll be taking the Flames ML +120 (which has already moved to +102). My models support Minnesota stronger than Calgary, but none of them have seen the Kaprizov news yet, or at least had time to absorb the impact into their projection. I’m also taking under 6 goals.
There was substantial love among my models for Jets -1.5 goals, with both Max Profit and Betting Venues running a big positive balance on that pick in the last 30 days. I’m going to tail at +185, but will limit my bet size because this should be Vasilevskiy. The good news is that the Jets have won their last 2 home games vs Tampa, with Hellebuyck beating Vasy straight up in both (covering -1.5 goals in both while the Jets were underdogs). This time they are favored at -130, but the last 30 days fair line estimator thinks that should be -200. I also love under 6.5 goals.
I’ve already reached my goal for picks shared, but decided this one needed to be added because of my overwhelming model support for Colorado, including both my Expected Goals models and Max Profit laying the maximum on Avs. The only reservation is that there’s a high probability of Prosvetov in goal (which is why I’m staying away from the puckline), but that only strengthens my support for over 6 goals.
I’m betting the Arizona ML and most of my models are also taking the Coyotes, but Florida is a good team and I’m not in love with that pick. The only reason I’m sharing a pick for this game is because I love under 6.5 goals. This is among the most my Over Under Council has loved a pick.
There’s not much to write here. This is more games than I was planning to cover, but with the state of the Leafs goaltending and their slumping, I like the Kings moneyline -130. Most of my models also prefer LA. The over/under on the other hand is a little dicey and I’m taking over 6.5 but don’t love the pick.
This game was targeted because the Oilers are returning from a long road trip, and some of my other models also like the Flyers (who are a good road team). Though both my Expected Goals models are making max bets on Edmonton (one puckline, one moneyline). I’m not sure what’s worse, Edmonton returning from a long road trip or Flyers being on a long road trip. Granted this permutation was examined in the model construction and it was deemed visitors -1.5 goals was still the most profitable choice. I’m putting a minimum bet on Philly ML +160 because the last 30 days fair line estimator thinks that should be +133. But Edmonton can be scary. I’m more confident in under 6.5 goals.
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