2023/24 Week 19 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

Week 19 of the NHL season is here and I have some potential streaming targets. The award for best schedule this week goes to the Buffalo Sabres, with 3 of 4 games on light nights and the leakiest opponents last 30 days. Those light nights will be important with a busy schedule coming up, including 10 games on Monday (so I’m not counting that night as light). More than half of the teams play 4 games, so whittling down my watchlist to the final candidates was challenging. You can see all of them at the bottom of this post, along with my strength of schedule graphic. Check what nights you have room for streamers. My watchlist at the bottom should help fit the best streamers to those openings.
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
 
1) Dylan Cozens, Buf, (51% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned in the preamble, the Buffalo Sabres have the best upcoming schedule, and Dylan Cozens centers line 2 and power play one. He’s eligible at wing and center, available in half of leagues, playing 3 times on light nights. In his last 8 GP, Cozens has netted 8 PTS (2 on the PP), with 27 shots and 8 hits. They’re playing Mon-Wed-Fri against Anaheim, Montreal and Columbus, all teams that have been easy to score on lately. They wrap with Carolina on Sunday, which is less exciting. If you’d rather get more super-star exposure 5v5, Pavel Zacha is now centering a line with Pastrnak, along with the first unit power play, scoring 9 PTS in his last 11 GP with 22 shots and 13 hits.

 2) Tyler Seguin, Dal, (57% Yahoo ownership): The Dallas Stars offense is rolling, and a big contributor has been the second line with Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment, and Matt Duchene, which is also the 2nd power play unit. Seguin has scored 12 PTS in his last 11 GP (4 on the PP) with 25 shots, is eligible at both wing and center, with the only downside being they play on all the busy nights, so make sure you’ve got room. I’m also equally interested in linemate Mason Marchment, who is available in even more leagues, scoring 13 PTS in his last 10 GP (3 on the PP) with 17 shots and 11 hits. Ultimately Seguin was given top billing because he’s averaging more ice time, dual-eligibility, and better shooting stats.
 
3) Wyatt Johnston, Dal, (28% Yahoo ownership): As mentioned in the previous rant, this is not a particularly good week for the Stars, playing on the busiest nights and just middle of the pack for strength of schedule (ranked by total opponents expected goals against), but Wyatt Johnston is yet another hot scorer on that offense worth targeting. He was recently plugged on the PDOcast with Dmitri Filipovic (not the first plug), where they mentioned him seeing time on the top line with Hintz and Robertson, though he’s only listed on line 3 on Daily Faceoff, but 11 PTS and 30 shots in his last 11 GP is impressive. If you need a few extra hits, you could try Ivan Barbashev in Vegas, who has 12 PTS and 13 hits in his last 9 GP, playing top line, second power play, eligible at center/wing.
 
4) Cam Fowler, Ana, (29% Yahoo ownership): Cam Fowler has been playing big minutes for the Ducks, including on the top power play, where he has 5 PTS (4 on the PP) in their last 3 games. They face Columbus, Buffalo (Luukkonen is day-to-day), LA, and Nashville. None of those teams (unless Luukkonen plays) has been able to stop a beach ball lately. Preds just got torched for 9 again Dallas, Kings for 7 vs Buffalo. Fowler is available in 70% of leagues, and looking at the schedule (which includes 2 light nights) I doubt that power play momentum they have going will cool. Speaking of power play workhorses, Zach Werenski is still available in 40% of leagues and has scored 5 PTS in his last 6 GP. When healthy, he’s a must own (currently on one of my teams)
 
5) Pyotr Kochetkov, Car, (59% Yahoo ownership): Pyotr Kochetkov was dropped in some leagues after missing 2 weeks with a concussion, but he has resumed his role as Carolina’s #1 goaltender and Raanta is out for a few weeks leaving Spencer Martin to back up. Kochetkov should see a heavy load, and has a .914 SV% in the 4 games since returning from that conky. The Hurricanes play 4 times this week, with their opponents right around league average in wins and goal scoring. Go see if he’s on waivers in any of your leagues and scoop him up. You may have more luck finding Jonathan Quick, available in half of leagues (.930 SV% last 30 days). Downside: Shesterkin might be settling down and they’re facing some high scoring opposition.
 
Honorable Mentions: Mason Marchment, Zach Werenski, Pavel Zacha, Ivan Barbashev, Jonathan Quick
 
Last Week: Artturi Lehkonen, Quentin Byfield, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Sam Bennett, Thomas Harley
 
 
Best Deep League Adds (under 25% ownership):
 
1) Anthony Cirelli, TB, (6% Yahoo ownership): The Tampa Bay Lightning have the 2nd best schedule by my total leakage metric, though only 1 light night, and the Lightning offense has been electric. One of the reasons is Anthony Cirelli scoring 13 PTS (3 on the PP) in his last 11 GP. Tampa has him centering the second line with Hagel and Paul, also playing on their top power play unit all the big boys. The downside with Cirelli is the center-only designation, which should make him tough to start on busier nights. If you only have room for wingers or light nights, J.J Peterka has been on nice heater playing with the aforementioned Dylan Cozens, scoring 9 PTS with 32 shots in his last 9 GP (they play 3 light nights).

2) Nicolas Roy, Veg, (12% Yahoo ownership): The absence of Jack Eichel in Vegas has created a golden opportunity for Nicolas Roy to center their top line with Marchessault and Barbashev. The aforementioned Dmitri Filipovic has long complained about Roy being buried as their 4C (arguably the best 4C in the league), and now we’re seeing what all the fuss was about. In his last 9 GP, Roy has scored 13 PTS, with only 11 shots and 5 hits. He’s eligible at wing and center, but less exciting in a standard categories league. If you need those peripheral stats, Josh Norris in Ottawa has 20 shots and 20 hits in his last 9 GP, to go along with 6 PTS, playing top line and top power play.

3) Jake McCabe, Tor, (22% Yahoo ownership): The Maple Leafs already thin defense will be without Morgan Reilly for most of this week, and Jake McCabe is currently listed on Daily Faceoff as his power play 1 replacement. Jake might only have 2 PTS in his last 10 GP, but exposure to that top power play unit gives him added upside while it lasts. He’s even better to own in leagues counting hits, pumping out 41 in his last 10. McCabe has received a few plugs here this season, after being largely overlooked for most of the previous few years. Another guy seeing time on a potent power play is Darren Raddysh in Tampa, 97% available, 6 PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 11 GP, though only 11 shots and 11 hits.

5) Nico Daws, NJ, (17% Yahoo ownership): Nico Daws received an honorable mention here last week because New Jersey had a busy schedule. Little did I know that Vitek Vanecek would be declared day-to-day shortly after being added to one of my teams. Daws got the team’s last 3 starts, posting 2 wins, stopping more than 93% of his team’s shots in each. Vanecek had also been playing better, so it’s plausible they’ve taken some measures to stop the bleeding defensively. For a guy available in 80% of leagues, there is at least some short-term upside until Devils trade for a goalie. If you’d prefer more job security, Laurent Brossoit’s Jets are playing 4 teams outside the playoffs, some struggling to score lately.

4) Sean Monahan, Wpg, (22% Yahoo ownership): The Winnipeg Jets newly acquired Sean Monahan has slotted as their 2nd line center between Perfetti and Vilardi, along with the top power play unit. As mentioned in the previous rant, the Jets are going to be playing a bunch of non-playoff teams this week (Calgary, Minnesota, Chicago, Arizona) though they struggle more at scoring goals than preventing them. In his last 10 GP, Monahan has scored 10 PTS (5 on the PP) with 23 shots. If you don’t have room for center-only playing 3 busy nights, you could go with Trent Frederic in Boston, who has received a few plugs here in the last few months. In his last 11 GP, Frederic has scored 6 PTS with 14 shots and 19 hits.
 

Honorable Mentions: Josh Norris, JJ Peterka, Trent Frederic, Laurent Brossoit, Darren Raddysh
 
Last Week: Dave Rittich, Simon Nemec, Jack McBain, Logan Cooley, Ondrej Palat