NHL 2012 Playoff Scoring Forecast

If you are drafting your office playoff pool in the next two days, here's a list that you can use at your draft. This was the result of nine hours of spreadsheet construction, statistical analysis, and injury/roster research. Top 200 players. PTS per game was based 3/4 on second half scoring, and 1/4 on first half scoring (though I did manually downgrade Pascal Dupuis because his regular season was a statistical aberration compared to the rest of his long career). Expected games played was more about setting a hypothetical over/under number rather than a simple bracket type method. I had Nashville at 13 games and Detroit 11 games, but since they face each other in the 1st round, it is impossible for both to reach the number. It is the mathematical answer for how to proceed if you think the winner of a series with a 55:45 split will advance to the Conference finals. Injuries and the probability of injuries were factored into the equation, but with teams being so cryptic about injury reports this time of year, it is impossible to be certain of anything.

It is also important to note that this is what the formula produced, not necessarily the exact order that you should draft your players. It is especially difficult to predict "market value" in playoff pools, except that most competitors will go off lists of regular season scoring drafting from teams they think will advance beyond the 1st round. You will generally pay a premium for players on teams in the 1/2 seeds. For your own reference, I included regular season PTS on the list below. I hope this helps you win your pool.

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	E[GP]	E[PTS]	GP	G	A	PTS
Evgeni Malkin	F	PIT	18	26	74	49	58	107
Sidney Crosby	F	PIT	14	23	21	7	28	35
James Neal	F	PIT	18	19	80	40	41	81
Jordan Staal	F	PIT	18	16	61	25	23	48
Marian Gaborik	F	NYR	16	15	81	41	35	76
Chris Kunitz	F	PIT	18	13	81	25	34	59
Brad Richards	F	NYR	16	13	81	25	41	66
Ilya Kovalchuk	F	NJ	11	12	76	35	46	81
Henrik Sedin	F	VAN	13	12	81	13	67	80
Kris Letang	D	PIT	14	11	50	10	31	41
Martin Erat	F	NSH	13	11	71	19	39	58
Ryan Callahan	F	NYR	16	11	75	29	25	54
Patrik Elias	F	NJ	11	11	80	26	51	77
Alex Pietrangelo	D	STL	14	10	80	12	38	50
Steve Sullivan	F	PIT	16	10	79	17	31	48
Mike Fisher	F	NSH	13	10	72	24	27	51
Pavel Datsyuk	F	DET	11	10	69	18	48	66
Joe Thornton	F	SJ	10	10	81	18	59	77
Alexander Radulov	F	NSH	13	10	8	3	3	6
Carl Hagelin	F	NYR	16	10	63	14	24	38
Henrik Zetterberg	F	DET	11	10	81	22	46	68
Zach Parise	F	NJ	11	9	81	31	37	68
David Krejci	F	BOS	12	9	78	23	39	62
Matt Cooke	F	PIT	18	9	81	19	19	38
T.J. Oshie	F	STL	14	9	79	19	34	53
David Backes	F	STL	14	9	81	24	30	54
Claude Giroux	F	PHI	8	9	77	28	65	93
Marian Hossa	F	CHI	10	9	80	29	48	77
Tyler Kennedy	F	PIT	18	9	59	11	22	33
Pascal Dupuis	F	PIT	18	9	81	24	34	58
Andy McDonald	F	STL	12	9	24	10	12	22
Tyler Seguin	F	BOS	12	9	80	27	38	65
Valtteri Filppula	F	DET	11	9	80	23	43	66
Milan Lucic	F	BOS	12	9	80	26	35	61
David Legwand	F	NSH	13	9	77	18	34	52
Patrick Sharp	F	CHI	10	9	73	33	34	67
Jason Spezza	F	OTT	8	9	79	34	50	84
David Perron	F	STL	12	9	56	20	21	41
Patrice Bergeron	F	BOS	12	9	80	22	39	61
Patric Hornqvist	F	NSH	13	8	75	26	16	42
Alex Burrows	F	VAN	13	8	79	28	23	51
Erik Karlsson	D	OTT	8	8	80	19	59	78
Michael Del Zotto	D	NYR	16	8	76	10	31	41
Logan Couture	F	SJ	10	8	79	31	32	63
Rich Peverley	F	BOS	12	8	56	11	30	41
Brad Marchand	F	BOS	12	8	75	27	27	54
Ray Whitney	F	PHX	8	8	81	24	52	76
Chris Higgins	F	VAN	13	8	70	18	25	43
Zdeno Chara	D	BOS	12	8	78	12	40	52
Anze Kopitar	F	LA	8	8	81	25	51	76
Sergei Kostitsyn	F	NSH	13	8	75	17	26	43
Patrick Marleau	F	SJ	10	8	81	29	34	63
Ryan Suter	D	NSH	13	8	78	7	39	46
Patrick Kane	F	CHI	10	7	81	23	42	65
Kevin Shattenkirk	D	STL	14	7	80	9	33	42
Shea Weber	D	NSH	13	7	77	19	30	49
Alexander Edler	D	VAN	13	7	81	11	38	49
Derek Stepan	F	NYR	12	7	81	17	34	51
Ryan Kesler	F	VAN	13	7	76	22	26	48
Joe Pavelski	F	SJ	10	7	81	31	29	60
Kevin Bieksa	D	VAN	13	7	77	8	35	43
Johan Franzen	F	DET	11	7	76	28	27	55
Paul Martin	D	PIT	18	7	72	2	25	27
Jonathan Toews	F	CHI	8	7	59	29	28	57
Adam Henrique	F	NJ	11	7	73	16	34	50
Scott Hartnell	F	PHI	9	7	81	37	30	67
Patrik Berglund	F	STL	14	7	81	19	19	38
Jiri Hudler	F	DET	11	7	80	25	25	50
Martin Havlat	F	SJ	10	7	38	7	18	25
Milan Michalek	F	OTT	8	7	76	35	25	60
Radim Vrbata	F	PHX	8	7	76	34	27	61
Alex Ovechkin	F	WSH	8	7	77	37	27	64
Artem Anisimov	F	NYR	16	6	78	16	20	36
Alexander Steen	F	STL	10	6	42	14	13	27
Brandon Dubinsky	F	NYR	16	6	76	10	23	33
Jason Arnott	F	STL	14	6	72	17	17	34
Daniel Sedin	F	VAN	8	6	72	30	37	67
Dan Boyle	D	SJ	10	6	80	7	39	46
Ryan McDonagh	D	NYR	16	6	81	7	25	32
Nicklas Backstrom	F	WSH	6	6	41	13	29	42
Justin Williams	F	LA	8	6	81	21	36	57
Andrew Shaw	F	CHI	10	6	36	11	11	22
Todd Bertuzzi	F	DET	11	6	70	14	24	38
Daniel Alfredsson	F	OTT	8	6	74	27	32	59
David Booth	F	VAN	13	6	61	15	14	29
Andrei Kostitsyn	F	NSH	13	6	71	16	19	35
Dustin Brown	F	LA	8	6	81	22	32	54
Wayne Simmonds	F	PHI	9	6	81	28	21	49
Dainius Zubrus	F	NJ	11	6	81	17	26	43
Jaromir Jagr	F	PHI	9	6	72	18	35	53
Dan Hamhuis	D	VAN	13	6	81	4	33	37
Alexander Semin	F	WSH	8	6	76	21	32	53
Colin Wilson	F	NSH	13	6	67	15	19	34
Ryane Clowe	F	SJ	10	6	75	17	28	45
Jakub Voracek	F	PHI	9	6	77	18	31	49
Petr Sykora	F	NJ	11	6	81	20	23	43
Dan Girardi	D	NYR	16	6	81	5	24	29
Tomas Fleischmann	F	FLA	8	6	81	27	34	61
Brian Boyle	F	NYR	16	6	81	10	15	25
Gabriel Bourque	F	NSH	13	6	42	7	11	18
David Clarkson	F	NJ	9	6	80	30	16	46
Anton Stralman	D	NYR	16	5	52	2	16	18
Jannik Hansen	F	VAN	13	5	81	16	22	38
Shane Doan	F	PHX	8	5	78	22	27	49
Benoit Pouliot	F	BOS	12	5	73	16	16	32
Matt Read	F	PHI	9	5	78	24	23	47
Matt Halischuk	F	NSH	13	5	72	14	12	26
Brent Burns	D	SJ	10	5	80	11	26	37
Viktor Stalberg	F	CHI	10	5	78	21	21	42
Chris Kelly	F	BOS	12	5	81	20	19	39
Stephen Weiss	F	FLA	8	5	79	19	37	56
Duncan Keith	D	CHI	10	5	73	4	36	40
Jeff Carter	F	LA	8	5	55	21	13	34
Kimmo Timonen	D	PHI	9	5	75	4	39	43
Kris Versteeg	F	FLA	8	5	70	23	30	53
Chris Stewart	F	STL	14	5	78	15	14	29
Niklas Kronwall	D	DET	11	5	81	15	21	36
Travis Zajac	F	NJ	11	5	14	2	4	6
Brian Campbell	D	FLA	8	5	81	4	49	53
Alexei Ponikarovsky	F	NJ	11	5	81	14	18	32
Nicklas Lidstrom	D	DET	11	5	69	11	23	34
Brent Seabrook	D	CHI	10	5	77	9	25	34
Mason Raymond	F	VAN	13	5	55	10	10	20
Ryan Ellis	D	NSH	13	5	31	3	8	11
Brooks Orpik	D	PIT	18	5	72	2	16	18
Nick Foligno	F	OTT	8	5	81	15	31	46
Paul Gaustad	F	NSH	13	5	69	7	14	21
Craig Smith	F	NSH	13	5	71	13	20	33
Gustav Nyquist	F	DET	11	5	17	1	6	7
Nick Leddy	D	CHI	10	4	81	3	34	37
Marcus Johansson	F	WSH	8	4	79	14	31	45
Sami Salo	D	VAN	13	4	68	9	16	25
Richard Park	F	PIT	18	4	53	7	7	14
Jordin Tootoo	F	NSH	13	4	76	6	24	30
Brian Rolston	F	BOS	12	4	70	7	17	24
Mike Richards	F	LA	8	4	73	17	26	43
Dwight King	F	LA	8	4	26	5	9	14
Craig Adams	F	PIT	18	4	81	5	13	18
Mikael Samuelsson	F	FLA	8	4	53	13	15	28
Dustin Jeffrey	F	PIT	18	4	26	4	2	6
Martin Hanzal	F	PHX	8	4	63	8	26	34
Kyle Turris	F	OTT	8	4	54	12	16	28
Jamie Langenbrunner	F	STL	14	4	69	6	17	23
Ruslan Fedotenko	F	NYR	16	4	72	9	11	20
Dennis Wideman	D	WSH	8	4	81	11	35	46
Kevin Klein	D	NSH	13	4	65	4	15	19
Marek Zidlicky	D	NJ	11	4	62	2	20	22
Keith Yandle	D	PHX	8	4	81	11	32	43
Antoine Vermette	F	PHX	8	4	81	11	26	37
Ian White	D	DET	11	4	76	7	25	32
Filip Kuba	D	OTT	8	4	72	6	26	32
Bryan Bickell	F	CHI	10	4	70	9	15	24
Matt Carle	D	PHI	9	4	81	4	34	38
Mathieu Perreault	F	WSH	8	4	63	15	14	29
Roman Josi	D	NSH	13	4	51	4	11	15
Drew Doughty	D	LA	8	4	76	10	26	36
John Mitchell	F	NYR	16	4	62	5	11	16
Marcus Kruger	F	CHI	10	4	70	9	16	25
Danny Cleary	F	DET	9	4	75	12	21	33
Jordan Caron	F	BOS	12	4	47	7	8	15
Marcel Goc	F	FLA	8	4	56	10	15	25
Jason Chimera	F	WSH	8	4	81	20	19	39
Deryk Engelland	D	PIT	18	4	72	4	13	17
Zbynek Michalek	D	PIT	18	4	61	2	11	13
Brooks Laich	F	WSH	8	4	81	16	24	40
Lauri Korpikoski	F	PHX	8	4	81	17	19	36
Colin Greening	F	OTT	8	4	81	17	20	37
Sergei Gonchar	D	OTT	8	4	73	5	32	37
Maxime Talbot	F	PHI	9	4	80	19	14	33
Vladimir Sobotka	F	STL	14	4	72	5	15	20
Dave Bolland	F	CHI	7	4	76	19	18	37
Eric Wellwood	F	PHI	9	4	23	5	4	9
Matt Niskanen	D	PIT	16	4	75	4	17	21
Joe Vitale	F	PIT	18	4	67	4	10	14
Gilbert Brule	F	PHX	8	4	32	5	9	14
Joe Corvo	D	BOS	12	3	74	4	21	25
Arron Asham	F	PIT	18	3	63	5	10	15
Andrew Ference	D	BOS	12	3	71	6	18	24
Dmitry Kulikov	D	FLA	8	3	57	4	23	27
Sean Couturier	F	PHI	9	3	76	13	14	27
Michal Handzus	F	SJ	10	3	66	7	17	24
Oliver Ekman-Larsson	D	PHX	8	3	81	13	19	32
Sean Bergenheim	F	FLA	8	3	61	17	6	23
Carlo Colaiacovo	D	STL	14	3	64	2	17	19
Jason Garrison	D	FLA	8	3	76	16	16	32
Ian Cole	D	STL	14	3	26	1	5	6
Drew Miller	F	DET	11	3	79	14	11	25
Brad Stuart	D	DET	11	3	80	6	15	21
Brandon Prust	F	NYR	16	3	81	5	12	17
Tomas Kopecky	F	FLA	8	3	79	10	21	31
Maxim Lapierre	F	VAN	13	3	81	9	10	19
Dominic Moore	F	SJ	10	3	78	4	21	25
Justin Abdelkader	F	DET	11	3	80	8	14	22
Nick Spaling	F	NSH	13	3	76	10	11	21
Keith Aucoin	F	WSH	8	3	26	3	7	10
Dennis Seidenberg	D	BOS	12	3	79	5	18	23
Daymond Langkow	F	PHX	8	3	72	11	19	30
Jimmy Hayes	F	CHI	10	3	30	5	4	9
Manny Malhotra	F	VAN	13	3	77	7	11	18
Troy Brouwer	F	WSH	8	3	81	18	15	33