Thursday, July 14, 2016

NHL 5th+ Round Draft Pick Probabilities and Expected Value

What is the expected value of a fifth round pick (and above) in the NHL draft (specifically picks above 120)? Answers below.


ABOUT THE DATA

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added. For more information about the data, click here.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP by any given age. The chart at the bottom is for Expected GP and PTS.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

*There is a significantly large decline in expectations for draft picks after the 4th round.

PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE
0
1
10
100
300
18
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
x
x
19
99.2%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
x
20
95.8%
4.2%
2.3%
0.0%
x
21
89.2%
10.8%
7.0%
0.7%
0.0%
22
81.9%
18.1%
11.7%
2.4%
0.0%
23
77.4%
22.6%
15.9%
5.0%
0.0%
24
73.2%
26.8%
20.0%
8.8%
0.6%
25
73.4%
26.6%
21.9%
11.0%
2.2%







PROBABILITY OF NHL PTS MILESTONES
AGE
0
1
10
100
300
18
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
x
19
99.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.0%
x
20
97.1%
2.9%
1.2%
0.0%
x
21
92.3%
7.7%
2.6%
0.0%
0.0%
22
86.4%
13.6%
6.2%
0.3%
0.0%
23
81.9%
18.1%
9.5%
1.0%
0.0%
24
77.0%
23.0%
11.8%
0.9%
0.0%
25
75.6%
24.4%
14.3%
2.5%
0.2%







PROBABILITY OF AHL GP MILESTONES
AGE
0
1
10
100
300
18
96.9%
3.1%
0.1%
0.0%
x
19
91.1%
8.9%
3.5%
0.0%
x
20
72.1%
27.9%
21.8%
1.3%
x
21
58.0%
42.0%
33.9%
12.9%
x
22
47.1%
52.9%
45.3%
20.2%
0.0%
23
37.5%
62.5%
55.6%
27.6%
0.5%
24
35.6%
64.4%
59.0%
33.1%
3.2%
25
36.2%
63.8%
59.5%
36.0%
5.1%



STATS/PICKS

NHL
NHL
AHL
AHL
AGE
GP
PTS
GP
PTS
18
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
19
0.1
0.0
1.5
0.5
20
0.9
0.3
11.3
4.2
21
2.2
0.6
16.2
6.5
22
4.2
1.4
18.2
7.8
23
5.9
2.0
17.5
7.2
24
7.6
2.4
13.8
5.6
25
8.3
3.0
8.6
3.6
Sum
29.1
9.8
87.2
35.4


Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Then there is the ability to determine what proportion of the sample is earning what salary at any given age.  $0 players are those who play zero regular season games in the AHL or NHL (some players with season long injuries still register a cap number, like E.Johnson). It's important to note that these are not career earnings below, but rather for that specific age.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.

Expected Value
: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included.

Analysis:

* There's about a 6% chance of getting a million dollar player at age 25


SALARY INFO

% of players earning this salary range
AGE
Salary/Pro
$0
< $1M
> $ 1M
> $4M
18
$7,330
96.9%
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
19
$56,600
92.5%
7.5%
0.0%
0.0%
20
$33,125
73.8%
26.2%
0.0%
0.0%
21
$64,523
60.4%
39.4%
0.1%
0.0%
22
$83,746
53.4%
46.3%
0.3%
0.0%
23
$125,834
52.6%
45.4%
2.0%
0.2%
24
$147,595
60.3%
35.8%
3.9%
0.2%
25
$176,330
68.5%
25.5%
6.0%
0.2%
sum
$687,753











SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE
Salary-E[V]
E[V]
Sum(E{V])
Salary/GP
Salary/PTS
19
$5,023
$51,577
$51,577
$33,654
$226,400
20
$93
$33,032
$84,610
$21,055
$63,776
21
$647
$63,876
$148,486
$18,357
$62,390
22
$1,204
$82,542
$231,028
$14,741
$42,993
23
$80
$125,754
$356,782
$19,754
$59,128
24
-$0
$147,595
$504,376
$19,286
$59,805
25
$0
$176,330
$680,706
$21,194
$59,441
Sum
$7,047

Development Matrix

If you would like to see how a sample of draft picks advances through different leagues and skill levels, welcome to the Development Matrix (or more correctly, matrices). If a draft pick played at least 1 game at any level last year, where is he likely to go next year?

Important Notes:

* KHL = Russian Elite, EurMA  = Euro Mainland Elite (Czeck, Slovakia, Germany, Swiss), ScanA = Scandinavian Elite (Sweden and Finland), EurB = All of the 2nd tier European leagues, EurJr = All European junior leagues,  CHL = Canadian Major Junior, WJC = Under 20 World Junior Championship, Tier II = All North American amateur that doesn't ruin NCAA eligibility, USDP = United States Development Program

* Age 17 is the first year of NHL draft eligibility.

* Charts meant to be read left to right, not up and down.

* Do not sum the numbers in any direction. It is what percentage of the sample played at least 1 game at any level and many play at more than one level.

Analysis:

* Almost 10% of players who played tier II junior in their draft year transitioned to major junior instead of continuing on NCAA path.

%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
AGE 18
 
Sample
at Age 17
CHL
NCAA
AHL
NHL
1.5%
KHL
15.4%
0.0%
7.7%
0.0%
3.3%
EurMA
51.7%
0.0%
6.9%
0.0%
3.2%
ScanA
14.3%
0.0%
3.6%
0.0%
9.5%
EurB
15.5%
1.2%
1.2%
0.0%
0.6%
NCAA
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
36.3%
CHL
98.7%
0.0%
7.2%
0.0%
1.9%
WJC
41.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
18.6%
Eurjr
25.6%
0.0%
1.8%
0.0%
31.3%
Tier II
9.8%
27.3%
0.0%
0.0%
4.7%
USDP
2.4%
85.4%
0.0%
0.0%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
AGE 19
 
Sample
at Age 18
CHL
NCAA
AHL
NHL
0.0%
NHL
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.1%
AHL
81.5%
0.0%
51.9%
3.7%
3.3%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
6.9%
3.4%
1.6%
EurMA
35.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
7.5%
ScanA
4.5%
0.0%
4.5%
1.5%
9.8%
EurB
9.3%
1.2%
4.7%
0.0%
12.7%
NCAA
7.1%
92.9%
2.7%
0.0%
43.1%
CHL
91.6%
0.0%
14.0%
1.3%
9.9%
WJC
24.1%
8.0%
13.8%
1.1%
12.8%
Eurjr
13.3%
2.7%
3.5%
0.9%
24.1%
Tier II
5.7%
70.3%
0.9%
0.0%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
AGE 20
 
Sample
at Age 19
CHL
NCAA
AHL
NHL
0.8%
NHL
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
71.4%
7.4%
AHL
12.7%
0.0%
81.0%
12.7%
1.1%
ECHL
10.0%
0.0%
50.0%
0.0%
3.8%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
3.1%
0.0%
2.2%
EurMA
0.0%
0.0%
11.8%
5.9%
8.3%
ScanA
0.0%
1.5%
16.4%
7.5%
8.9%
EurB
0.0%
0.0%
7.0%
1.4%
30.0%
NCAA
2.4%
94.7%
5.3%
0.0%
43.0%
CHL
42.1%
0.0%
46.5%
5.8%
15.1%
WJC
6.4%
12.8%
28.8%
9.6%
8.4%
Eurjr
0.0%
2.9%
11.6%
4.3%
7.4%
Tier II
1.6%
77.8%
3.2%
0.0%


 


 
%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 21
 
Sample
at Age 20
NCAA
ECHL
AHL
NHL
4.0%
NHL
0.0%
3.1%
84.4%
87.5%
26.0%
AHL
0.0%
22.2%
90.9%
31.8%
9.4%
ECHL
0.0%
42.3%
71.8%
7.0%
4.0%
KHL
0.0%
6.9%
17.2%
3.4%
3.9%
EurMA
0.0%
3.2%
9.7%
0.0%
8.5%
ScanA
0.0%
7.8%
23.4%
6.3%
10.3%
EurB
0.0%
6.6%
13.2%
0.0%
34.1%
NCAA
89.5%
4.7%
18.4%
2.0%
18.7%
CHL
0.0%
41.7%
45.8%
4.2%
3.4%
Eurjr
0.0%
11.1%
18.5%
0.0%
1.9%
Tier II
43.8%
12.5%
6.3%
0.0%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 22
 
Sample
at Age 21
NCAA
ECHL
AHL
NHL
10.2%
NHL
0.0%
2.9%
71.4%
81.4%
38.5%
AHL
0.0%
24.5%
81.0%
32.8%
15.3%
ECHL
0.0%
54.9%
59.8%
2.9%
3.3%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
12.5%
8.3%
4.2%
EurMA
0.0%
0.0%
10.3%
0.0%
7.3%
ScanA
0.0%
0.0%
7.7%
7.7%
7.4%
EurB
0.0%
0.0%
3.8%
1.9%
31.7%
NCAA
63.6%
14.7%
39.6%
9.7%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 23
 
Sample
at Age 22
NCAA
ECHL
AHL
NHL
15.6%
NHL
0.0%
1.1%
56.0%
79.1%
43.4%
AHL
0.0%
24.7%
72.5%
30.6%
16.5%
ECHL
0.0%
57.0%
46.0%
0.0%
3.7%
KHL
0.0%
0.0%
13.0%
13.0%
4.9%
EurMA
0.0%
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
7.4%
ScanA
0.0%
0.0%
14.9%
6.4%
8.8%
EurB
0.0%
3.6%
1.8%
0.0%
20.6%
NCAA
24.2%
39.5%
57.3%
7.3%






%  of
Played Here
 
Then played here at
Age 24
 
Sample
at Age 23
KHL
ECHL
AHL
NHL
17.9%
NHL
5.4%
1.1%
44.1%
79.6%
42.0%
AHL
3.2%
24.0%
63.3%
32.1%
20.8%
ECHL
0.0%
50.0%
40.9%
0.0%
5.4%
KHL
75.0%
0.0%
10.7%
7.1%
5.0%
EurMA
3.4%
0.0%
6.9%
6.9%
6.2%
ScanA
5.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
9.4%
EurB
3.7%
11.1%
3.7%
1.9%
5.0%
NCAA
0.0%
35.7%
50.0%
7.1%