Sunday, March 3, 2024

2023/24 Week 21 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

Week 21 of the NHL season is 1 day away and I’m looking ahead at potential streaming targets. The award for best schedule this week goes to the Chicago Blackhawks, who play 4 times, twice against the painfully leaky Arizona Coyotes on a 14-game skid. None of the 4-game teams play 3 light nights, with a majority playing just one, so as always, make sure you can actually fit a streamer into your starting line-up before adding. 
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.

You can also see my February Fantasy Awards at the bottom of this post.
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
 
1) Gustav Nyquist, Nsh, (35% Yahoo ownership): Gustav Nyquist has been plugged on this report repeatedly this season, mostly due to his line one power play one assignment and excelling in that role. The winger is scoring at nearly a 70-point pace, including 14 PTS in his last 12 GP, 3 of those PTS on the PP. The biggest drawback being the 14 shots and 4 hits in those 11 games, diminishing his appeal in category leagues. They play 4 times (only 1 light night) and none of their upcoming opponents currently occupy a playoff spot. If you need more shots and hits, Sam Bennett has 31 and 29 in his last 11 GP. I’ll be considering him in a league where I’ve got MacKinnon playing all light nights, so should be able to start Bennett.
 
2) Rickard Rakell, Pit, (37% Yahoo ownership): The injury situation in Pittsburgh has created a line one, power play one opportunity for Rakell to play alongside Sidney Crosby. Pittsburgh has the 2nd best schedule by total opponent goals allowed, but only 1 light night. In his last 7 games, Ricky has 7 PTS (1 on the PP) with 20 shots and 15 hits. He’s a multi-category contributor, with an easy schedule and prime deployment. He played 21 minutes in their last game against Seattle. Another option with a strong schedule is Boone Jenner, eligible at both LW and center. In his last 9 GP, Boone has scored 9 PTS (2 on the PP) with 33 shots and 23 hits, centering the top line and the top power play.
 
3) Noah Hanifin, Cgy, (63% Yahoo ownership): Noah Hanifin is currently among the most discussed NHL players given his pending UFA status and the Flames perilously close to embracing a full rebuild. He could be traded any day, possibly to a team with fewer games than Calgary. In his last 10 GP, Hanifin has 9 PTS (3 on the power play) with 27 shots and a +7. The Flames play 5 games, twice on light nights, the downside being they’ll face some defensively stingy opponents, so points could be tougher to accumulate. Hanifin also doesn’t hit much, but one option who does is Jeremy Lauzon, who is on both my teams, both category leagues that count hits. J.L has 60 hits in his last 11 GP, adding 3 PTS.

4) Charlie Coyle, Bos, (54% Yahoo ownership): The Bruins have reunited the top line of Coyle-Pastrnak-Marchand, at least according to Daily Faceoff, but the coach seems to like shaking up the lines regularly, so keep an eye on how long this persists. In his last 12 GP, Coyle has scored 8 PTS (4 on the power play) adding 19 shots and 19 hits. He did recently have a 5-game pointless drought, but followed that up with 5 PTS in 5 GP. The center-only eligibility is the only reason his ownership has stayed this low, even shrinking in the last few weeks. If you need a winger, Jonathan Huberdeau has quietly been heating up in Calgary, scoring 11 PTS (4 on the PP) in his last 10 GP, adding 18 shots and 11 hits.
 
5) Anthony Stolarz, Fla, (23% Yahoo ownership): While Stolarz technically belongs in the deep league section of this report, he’s a more appealing streaming option for me in the week ahead than anyone in the 25% to 65% ownership range. The Panthers will be playing 4 times and Stolarz has been outstanding in the last 30 days, with 3 wins and a .944 SV% in his last 4 starts. It appears the coach is starting to allocate more frequent starts, and it would make sense not to burn out Bobrovsky in the 4th quarter leading to playoffs. They’ll be facing teams who can score this week, so it’s not without risk, but Florida might be the league’s best. Petr Mrazek was the next best candidate given Chicago’s schedule, but it’s a pair of back-to-backs and Soderblom is likely to draw both Arizona starts (leaving Mrazek with Colorado and Washington).
 
Honorable Mentions: Sam Bennett, Jonathan Huberdeau, Boone Jenner, Jeremy Lauzon, Petr Mrazek
 
Last Week: Gabe Vilardi, Thomas Chabot, Mason Marchment, Bryan Rust, Joonas Korpisalo
 
 
Best Deep League Adds (under 26% ownership):
 
1) Torey Krug, Stl, (26% Yahoo ownership): Torey Krug has blipped my radar several times this season, as his offensive output is much improved over last year. The Blues have a few dangerous forwards that can put the puck in the net if the D can consistently hit them with passes up ice. In his last 10 GP, Krug has scored 10 PTS (4 on the PP) with 19 shots and 7 hits. It's not a particularly appealing schedule for St. Louis, but not so bad that he can’t collect some points on that Blues top unit power play. If you’d rather use that last D spot to accrue some hitting, Simon Benoit is a good option in Toronto with 53 in his last 12 games. Giordano and Liljegren are injured, so the Lyubushkin acquisition shouldn’t hurt Benoit this week.

2) Tyler Bertuzzi, Tor, (23% Yahoo ownership): Tyler Bertuzzi briefly received a plug here recently, but was struck off the page 24 hours later after a 3rd period benching. Well Tyler has redeemed himself, earning a spot on the Leafs second line with William Nylander and their top power play unit. He has 7 PTS in his last 7 GP (6 of those goals) with 3 of those points coming on the power play. Toronto has scored at least 4 goals in 7 of their last 8 games, so that’s a nice offense to tap, even playing twice on light nights. Another guy heating up (sort of) on an elite team’s top unit power play is Morgan Geekie, eligible at C and RW, scoring 6 PTS in his last 7 GP (3 of those coming same game, all goals) with 12 shots and 8 hits.

3) Matthew Knies, Tor, (12% Yahoo ownership): Having already pumped the Leafs as a team to target, we need to mention Matthew Knies, who continues to play on the top line with Marner and Matthew, but is not currently listed on their power play. In his last 12 games, the young winger has accumulated 9 PTS with 21 shots and 28 hits. It’s a cheap way to collect a few Matthews residuals, hoping the heater continues. Meanwhile, Knies teammate Bobby McMann might not be playing top line or power play, but he does have 10 PTS (1 on the PP) in his last 12 GP with 31 shots, 28 hits, and a +8, currently on line 3 with Tavares (though only eligible at center). Excellent addition for category leagues with shots and hits.

4) Philipp Grubauer, Sea, (22% Yahoo ownership): As Joey Daccord shareholders are surely already painfully aware, Phil Grubauer is back from injury and playing fantastic. Daccord surely earned respect from the coach for holding the fort admirably in Phil’s absence, but in 5 games since his return, Grubauer has 4 wins with a .947 SV%. Forget that his salary is substantially higher and management surely wants their money’s worth, at this level of success the other factors don’t really matter, you need to ride the hot hand. Seattle only plays 3 times, but this is a potential longer-term play. Another option is Calvin Pickard, who should get a start this weekend at least 1 next week. The SV% has been bad, but he wins most of his starts on a powerhouse team.
 
5) Jack Roslovic, Cbj, (2% Yahoo ownership): This might be Jack Roslovic’s first appearance this season where he has scored at a pedestrian 42-point pace, mostly playing down the line-up when not injured. He’s a pending UFA and the Columbus Blue Jackets are trying to sell him by the deadline, which is probably the whole reason he’s currently playing line one and power play one, trying to boost demand. The production is up, with 8 PTS in his last 8 GP, which began immediately after ice time was significantly increased. He’s 98% available. Another option is my guy Nick Schmaltz, though the scoring pace is down roughly 20 PTS from last season, but Arizona plays 4 and he’s still playing line one and power play one with 4 PTS in his last 5 GP.
 
Honorable Mentions: Morgan Geekie, Bobby McMann, Nick Schmaltz, Simon Benoit, Calvin Pickard
 
Last Week: Anton Forsberg, Shane Pinto, Rasmus Sandin, JJ Peterka, Dylan Guenther
  

February Fantasy Awards

 
February MVF
 
Who was the most valuable forward of the month?
 
Connor McDavid    COL
Auston Matthews       TOR
William Nylander       TOR
 
 
February MVD
 
Who was the most valuable defenseman of the month?
 
Roman Josi              NSH
Evan Bouchard         EDM
Josh Morrissey         WPG
 
 
February MVG
 
Who was the most valuable goalie of the month?
 
Igor Shesterkin        NYR
Sergei Bobrovsky     FLA
Juuse Saros                NSH
 
 
Stock Rocket Award
 
Player with biggest increase in fantasy ownership.
 
Juraj Slafkovsky     MTL   +30%
Gabe Vilardi              WPG   +19%
Mason Marchment   DAL    +19%
Thomas Harley         DAL    +18%
Wyatt Johnston         DAL    +16%
UP Luukkonen         BUF    +16%
Sean Monahan          WPG   +15%
Alexis Lafreniere     NYR   +14%
Anthony Stolarz       FLA    +14%
Pyotr Kochetkov      CAR    +13%
 
 
Stock Plunger Award
 
Healthy(ish) player with the biggest drop in fantasy ownership.
 
Joel Farabee              PHI     -21%
Y. Sharangovich       CGY   -19%
Connor Ingram         ARI     -17%
Martin Jones             TOR    -17%
Jonathan Drouin       COL    -16%
Oliver Bjorkstrand   SEA    -16%
Eeli Tolvanen            SEA    -15%
Carter Hart                PHI     -14%
Nikolaj Ehlers           WPG -14%
Brayden Schenn       STL     -12%
 
 
Jonathan Huberdeau Award
 
Player most below my point projection (full season, not just February).
 
Connor Brown         EDM  -29.8 PTS
Tage Thompson        BUF  -22.6 PTS
Lukas Reichel           CHI  -22.5 PTS
 
 
Pleasant Surprise Award
 
Player most exceeding my point projection (full season, not just February).
 
Evan Bouchard       EDM   +25.9 PTS
Noah Dobson             NYI     +22.7 PTS
Blake Coleman         CGY   +22.6 PTS
 
 
Simon Edvinsson Award
 
Player I’m most disappointed to see in the minors.
 
Simon Edvinsson    DET
Spencer Knight         FLA
Devon Levi               BUF
 
 

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