Will Russian Hockey Players Return To NHL After Lockout?

The NHL is locked out for the second time since 2004/05, and once again the majority of Russian players who had been playing in the NHL have returned to play in Russia. Last lockout the KHL did not yet exist, however there is a high probability that the Russian mob was already using Russian pro hockey to wash dirty money. I can't tell you what the average salary of a Russian player was in 2005 versus 2012; even if they're listed online, there were/are likely substantial under the table payments. It is difficult to measure changes in the monetary incentive for Russian players to stay in Russia. The other difference between 2005 and 2012 is that Russia will soon be hosting a winter Olympics, which could lure players to stay in Russia, especially if they believe playing in the KHL increases their chances of playing on the national team.

Of the Russian players who played in the NHL in 2004 and returned to play in Russia during the lockout, 74% of them returned to the NHL after the lockout for the 2005/06 season. 26% did not return for the next season.

The players who went home and returned to the NHL the season after the lockout were: (note my list only includes Russians drafted to the NHL after the fall of the Soviet Union, since I'm using my draft database to get these names)

Ilya Kovalchuk

Dainius Zubrus

Alexander Semin

Pavel Datsyuk

Sergei Gonchar

Nikolai Antropov

Andrei Markov

Fedor Tyutin

Alexei Ponikarovsky

Sergei Samsonov

Alexei Kovalev

Nikolai Zherdev

Alexander Frolov

Ruslan Salei

Vyacheslav Kozlov

Maxim Afinogenov

Denis Grebeshkov

Viktor Kozlov

Dmitri Kalinin

Alexei Semenov

Alexei Zhitnik

Andrei Zyuzin

Sergei Brylin

Vitaly Vishnevsky

Maxim Kondratiev

Alexei Yashin

Oleg Saprykin

Darius Kasparaitis

Danil Markov

Dmitry Afanasenkov

Alexei Zhamnov

Oleg Kvasha

Alexander Khavanov

Alexander Karpovtsev

Andrei Nazarov

Konstantin Koltsov

Fedor Fedorov

The players who never returned:

Denis Arkhipov

Igor Korolev

Andrei Nikolishin

Alexei Morozov

Alexander Korolyuk

Ivan Novoseltsev

Artem Chubarov

Petr Schastlivy

Denis Shvidki

Igor Radulov

Maxim Kuznetsov

Sergei Zinovjev

Mikhail Kuleshov

If we assume that the increased strength of the KHL versus the old Russian Elite League and the Soviets hosting the next Olympics will convince more players to stay in the motherland; we could see half of the Russians who played in the NHL in 2011/12 (and are currently playing in the KHL) stay home when a new CBA is signed. There are very few Russians playing in the AHL this season (9 if you count former Soviet Republics).

34 Russian hockey players played at least 9 GP the NHL last season. 5 of those players are playing in the AHL this season (Loktinov, Burmistrov, Orlov, Voynov, and Grachev). 26 of them are playing in the KHL this season (7 of those now KHL players are not under NHL contract if the league were to resume). Those players under NHL contract are:

Alexander Ovechkin

Evgeni Malkin

Alexander Semin

Pavel Datsyuk

Ilya Kovalchuk

Andrei Markov

Sergei Gonchar

Fedor Tyutin

Anton Volchenkov

Nik Antropov

Sergei Kostitsyn

Nikolai Kulemin

Anton Babchuk

Nikita Nikitin

Alexei Emelin

Artem Anisimov

Alexei Ponikarovsky

Kaspars Daugavins

Dmitri Kulikov

My prediction is that at least 10 of the players listed above stay in Russia at the end of the lockout. I'm just not sure which ones it will be. Hopefully Datsyuk comes back. He did last time.