Of the Russian players who played in the NHL in 2004 and returned to play in Russia during the lockout, 74% of them returned to the NHL after the lockout for the 2005/06 season. 26% did not return for the next season.
The players who went home and returned to the NHL the season after the lockout were: (note my list only includes Russians drafted to the NHL after the fall of the Soviet Union, since I'm using my draft database to get these names)
The players who never returned:
If we assume that the increased strength of the KHL versus the old Russian Elite League and the Soviets hosting the next Olympics will convince more players to stay in the motherland; we could see half of the Russians who played in the NHL in 2011/12 (and are currently playing in the KHL) stay home when a new CBA is signed. There are very few Russians playing in the AHL this season (9 if you count former Soviet Republics).
34 Russian hockey players played at least 9 GP the NHL last season. 5 of those players are playing in the AHL this season (Loktinov, Burmistrov, Orlov, Voynov, and Grachev). 26 of them are playing in the KHL this season (7 of those now KHL players are not under NHL contract if the league were to resume). Those players under NHL contract are:
My prediction is that at least 10 of the players listed above stay in Russia at the end of the lockout. I'm just not sure which ones it will be. Hopefully Datsyuk comes back. He did last time.