Friday, December 6, 2013

NHL Week 10 Fantasy Hockey Report (2013/14)

Here is my third attempt at a weekly fantasy hockey report. My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough; then show you which players have climbed/fallen the most in my player rankings over the last week.

If you have any questions regarding decisions that you are facing in your league, scroll to the bottom of this post and leave a question in the comment section. It will get answered in less than 24 hours (I do have a day job making curling ice and driving a Zamboni). Let me know the scoring parameters of your league, and the decision that you are faced with.

Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)

Johan Franzen, Det - Still only owned in 77% of Yahoo leagues, but 100% of ESPN leagues. If he is available in your league, any size, any format, Franzen is a must add. He has 8 points in his last 5 games, even more noteworthy without linemate Pavel Datsyuk in the line-up.

Gustav Nyqvist, Tomas Tatar, Det - Both of these players have struggled to get on the ice with the massive log jam of forwards in the Red Wings system, but both are clearly ownable in most leagues while they are getting the ice time. Both are under 15% owned in Yahoo leagues and can be comfortably added in most leagues while injuries ensure they'll get quality ice time.

David Desharnais, Mtl - After scoring just 1 point in his first 19 games, Desharnais has broken out of his slump with 9 PTS in his last 8 GP. He is owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues and 14% of ESPN, and that number should now be higher. He is a maybe add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in deeper leagues.

Max Pacioretty, Mtl - Owned in 77% of Yahoo leagues (100% in ESPN), this player is a must add in all leagues, all formats. If by chance he was dropped in your league, add him right now, don't think twice (unless you are in a 2 team league).

Sean Couturier, Phi - 21% owned in ESPN leagues and only 7% in Yahoo, this youngster has 6 PTS in his last 6 games. He has moved up to a must add player in 10 team leagues. Ride the wave while there is a wave to ride.

Marc Giordano, Cgy - When he was injured, he was playing like one of the best defensemen in the league. He is now back from injury, and if he was dropped in your league, add him right now. He is must own in all leagues, all sizes, all formats. Gio is only 38% owned in Yahoo leagues and 60% owned in ESPN leagues.

Ryan Garbutt, Dal - He has jumped 100 spots in my player rankings each of the last 2 weeks. His ownership is 1% in both Yahoo and ESPN, is a maybe add in 10 team leagues, and a must add in deeper leagues.

Jeff Skinner, Car - He is 86% owned in ESPN leagues and 76% in Yahoo. That should be 100% in both. He has scored 5 goals in his last 2 games and is back to ownable in all leagues, all formats. If he was dropped in your league, pick him up right now.

Scott Hartnell, Phi - After a terrible start to the season, Hartnell is back to ownable in 10 team leagues. He is 41% owned in Yahoo leagues, and 91% in ESPN, so if he's on your waiver wire, he is definitely worthy of consideration.

Who you should sell! (players owned in too many leagues)

Pierre-Marc Bouchard, NYI - He should be dropped in all leagues, all formats.  Not ownable. I recently dropped him in an 18 team league and he cleared waivers.

Stephen Weiss, Det - Owned in 6% of ESPN leagues and 23% of Yahoo, it should be 0% and 0% given his current level of production. You can comfortably drop Weiss even in 18 team leagues. He might get some opportunity with both Datsyuk and Zetterberg injured, worth keeping an eye on, but Weiss is one fish that Ken Holland would love to throw back in the sea.

Nikolai Kulemin, Tor - Still owned in 6% of Yahoo leagues. I have been trying to sell him in my 18 team league, but have not been able to find a buyer. He is a player with the ability to score goals, but his production has been uninspiring to say the least.

Marcus Foligno, Buf - Those of us who remember Foligno's terrific 13 PTS in 14 GP in 2012 might still be clinging on to that memory. The kid looks to be on Ted Nolan's shit list, and can be dropped in all leagues. I'm still holding on to him in my 18 team league, but that won't last much longer.

Aleksander Barkov, Fla - He is a must own in keeper formats, but the kid has slowly been getting worse each week, and is now droppable in standard 10 team leagues. The Panthers stink, and at least for this season, there are plenty of better options in standard formats. He is 6% owned in Yahoo leagues and 2% owned in ESPN.

Justin Schultz, Edm - Overrated, who would have ever seen that coming? Owned in 75% of Yahoo leagues and 86% of ESPN. He is more ownable in a points league, but if your league counts PIMs, +/-, Hits, even shots, he's hurting you more than helping you. Not a player I would recommend dropping, but you shouldn't have a problem finding a buyer if you are willing to sell, which you should be.

Jakub Voracek, Phi - Owned in 90% of ESPN leagues and 66% of Yahoo, but he is ranked well outside the top 200, which is my pseudo ownable threshold in 10 team leagues. You can drop him in 10 teamers, and in deeper leagues, you should consider selling him for 60 cents on the dollar.

David Clarkson, Tor - 78% owned in ESPN leagues and 22% owned in Yahoo. He should not be owned in 10 team leagues, especially points leagues. If you get credit for hits and penalties, he's worth owning in deeper leagues. Otherwise he's safe to drop, and somebody you should try to sell to still optimistic Leaf fans.

Dan Hamhius, Van - I had a Canucks fan recently try to convince me that Dan Hamhius should be on the Canadian Olympic team. There is a 0% chance.  Not a must own player in 10 team leagues. He is 38% owned in Yahoo leagues, and 95% owned in ESPN. He should not be 95% owned.

Teemu Selanne, Ana - 7 PTS in 23 GP, this future Hall of Famer ain't what he used to be. We saw indications last season that Father Time had finally caught up with the Finnish Flash. If you own him in any league, try making trade offers to everybody to see if you can hook a buyer.

Jack Johnson, Clb - It has been a disappointing season for JJ. He is still 46% owned in ESPN leagues, 53% in Yahoo, and both those numbers should be lower (especially if your league counts +/-).

Who jumped the most spots in my player rankings?

1) Sean Couturier, Phi - (262 to 89)

2) Darren Helm, Det - (371 to 224)

3) Rick Nash, NYR - (473 to 333)

4) Max Pacioretty, Mtl - (213 to 110)

5) Blair Jones, Cgy - (660 to 557)

6) Jeff Skinner, Car - (293 to 196)

7) Michael Ryder, NJ - (395 to 301)

8) Ryan Garbutt, Dal - (356 to 263)

9) Scott Hartnell, Phi - (276 to 185)

10) Jonathon Ericsson, Det - (390 to 302)

Who fell the most in my rankings? (but still played at least 3 games in the last 2 weeks)

1) Pierre-Marc Bouchard, NYI - (353 to 419)

2) Nail Yakupov, Edm - (348 to 405)

3) Boyd Gordon, Edm - (169 to 226)

4) Ryan Smyth, Edm - (352 to 406)

5) Nick Spaling, Nsh - (328 to 380)

6) Erik Gudbranson, Fla - (272 to 323)

7) Aleksander Barkov, Fla - (244 to 295)

8) Steve Ott, Buf - (171 to 220)

9) Jeff Petry, Edm - (270 to 317)

10) Marcus Foligno, Buf - (259 to 306)

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