Tuesday, January 21, 2014

NHL Week 16 Fantasy Hockey Report 2014

Here is my 8th attempt at a weekly fantasy hockey report. My analysis is based largely on Yahoo and ESPN Standard Leagues where your roster of players competes head to head in several categories (in my league it is G, A, PTS, +/-, PIM, PPP, SHP, GWG, Shots, Hits, Blocks, Faceoff Wins) against another roster of players. I look at ownership percentages and determine which players are owned too much, and which are not owned enough; then show you which players have climbed/fallen the most in my player rankings over the last week.

If you have any questions regarding decisions that you are facing in your league, scroll to the bottom of this post and leave a question in the comment section. It will get answered in less than 24 hours (I do have a day job making curling ice and driving a Zamboni). Let me know the scoring parameters of your league, and the decision that you are faced with.

Who you should buy! (players who need to be owned in more leagues)
(Percentages below are ownership rates in Yahoo and ESPN fantasy hockey leagues)

Andrej Meszaros, Phi - (19% ESPN, 8% Yahoo) He is healthy and on fire. He has 9 PTS over his last 7 games, and is somebody that must be added in every league. Take a moment to go check all your leagues, whatever the format, and if Meszaros is available, add him. He's on my team.

Brock Nelson, NYI - (0% ESPN, 0% Yahoo) I added him in my 18 team league, and have been impressed. He has 5 PTS in the last 7 GP, and must be owned in more than 0% of leagues. It might be a little too soon to comfortably add him in smaller leagues, unless you like speculating on highly touted young players.

Mathieu Perreault, Ana - (8% ESPN, 8% Yahoo) 7 PTS in the last 15 days is pretty good. He is marginally ownable in 10 team leagues, and a must own in all deeper formats. Perreault had a great start, cooled off, and is now hot again. I don't always bite on the first hot streak, but I'm all in on the second hot streak.

Ryane Clowe, NJ - (55% ESPN, 20% Yahoo) Count me on the list of people who thought this was a terrible off-season signing by the Devils, who overpaid him after losing Clarkson. Clowe had been injured early in the season, but now has 9 PTS over the last 2 weeks.

Calvin de Haan, NYI - (10% ESPN, 2% Yahoo) Another highly touted Islanders prospect and 1st round pick who has broken into the NHL and is producing offense (not unlike Nelson). 8 PTS over his last 7 games is worth gambling on. He's a rookie, so this could be who he really is, or the production could dry up. He is a speculative play, penny stock that could quickly become blue chip. He has been tempting me on the waiver wire of my 18 team league, but Alex Goligoski would be the player I'd drop, and I'm not prepared to do that just yet.

Charlie Coyle, Min - (1% ESPN, 6% Yahoo) With Parise and Koivu out of the line-up, the Wild have been winning hockey games with Coyle being their leading scorer over the last 2 weeks with 6 PTS. We'll see how he does when the 2 best forwards return to the ice, but Coyle is currently producing while the team is winning. Take that for what it's worth.

Jacob Trouba, Wpg - (33% ESPN, 14% Yahoo) This might be the lowest ownership percentage you'll see for Trouba over the next decade. The kid is the real deal. He has 3 big goals over the last 2 weeks, and it is only going to get better from here. He is borderline ownable in 10 team leagues, and a must own in all deeper formats.

Cam Atkinson, Clb - (9% ESPN, 13% Yahoo) He is on fire and the team the Blue Jackets are winning hockey games. Life is good for Cam right now, and I would ride the wave for as long as it lasts. He has 7 PTS in the last 2 weeks, and needs to be owned in way more leagues than he currently is.

Zack Kassian, Van - (3% ESPN, 2% Yahoo) If your league counts Hits and/or PIMs, Kassian needs to be owned in your league. He has 4 PTS over the last 2 weeks, and he has looked very good out on the ice. He has less value in straight point leagues. Count me among those highly critical of the Hodgson for Kassian trade, but I'm starting to like the big kid. That being said...

Cody Hodgson, Buf - (47% ESPN, 32% Yahoo) If he was dropped in your league when he was injured, he's back on the ice and a must own player. He's producing a point per game since his return and is gifted offensively. He should be 90% owned at least.

LAST WEEK: Nathan Horton, Jordan Staal, Adam Henrique, Nino Niederreiter, Vladimir Sobotka, Ondrej Palat, Derick Brassard, Tyler Johnson,   Alex Killorn, Jason Demers

Who you should sell! (players owned in too many leagues, or that should be traded)

The Sedin Twins, Van - (100% ESPN, 100% Yahoo) Henrik finally had his ironman streak snapped with a bruised rib, but the Swedish twins production had already dried up. Frustrated owners might want to troll for any Canuck fans in their league, or it might be a good time to buy low.

Todd Bertuzzi, Det - (1% ESPN, 2% Yahoo) If you are part of the 1-2% that owns Todd Bertuzzi, you can drop him in all formats. He's just a shadow of his former self. Those of you clinging to hope that he get paired with Datsyuk and catch fire, it has been a very painful wait (like that waiting room for dead people in Beetlejuice).

Justin Faulk, Car - (83% ESPN, 17% Yahoo) Kudos to you if you had Faulk before he was named to Team USA, but the guy is currently being way overrated. He has 1 point over his last 9 games from what is supposed to be an offensive player. Don't drop him outright, but do package him into multi player trade offers to most teams in your league, especially before the Olympics.

Dustin Penner, Ana - (30% ESPN, 30% Yahoo) Worth shopping if you can find a buyer, as the Lord of the Pancakes has just 2 PTS over the last 2 weeks. He's looking like old Penner again.  He could snap out of it, or this could be who he is going forward.

Zach Bogosian, Wpg - (15% ESPN, 8% Yahoo) I'm just curious why he is on 15% of teams, this being a guy who has 1 point over his last 13 games. He has been on some of the most embarrassing highlights of the season. You can drop him in all leagues, all formats.

Justin Williams, LA - (100% ESPN, 70% Yahoo) 4 PTS in his last 13 GP is not what you need to get from a guy owned in 100% of leagues. Either package him in trade offers, let him go, or try to be patient. As we get closer to the end of the season, it's hard to be patient. I can't even spell patience.

Zdeno Chara, Bos - (100% ESPN, 97% Yahoo) This is not the first time that Chara has found his name on my Sell List. He has one point in 9 games in January. He's not a player you drop, but is a very attractive chip to throw into a package offer. He's not the same guy, not the guy you drafted him to be.

Troy Brouwer, Was - (61% ESPN, 43% Yahoo) He has 1 point in his last 9 games. He was a fantastic surprise last season, but he is not the same guy. He had a decent start and has slowly gotten worse. Trade if you can, drop him if you must.

Andrej Sekera, Car - (79% ESPN, 27% Yahoo) He was red hot earlier in the season and exploded up to 100% ownership, but he currently finds himself in decline. 1 point over his last 8 GP is not a must own player. Hold on to him in deeper formats, but you can safely drop him in 10 team leagus or less.

Nick Leddy, Chi - (57% ESPN, 48% Yahoo) I'm not too sure what is wrong in Nick Leddy's world, but I would consider dropping him for a Calvin de Haan. In the 12 days since Christmas, he has but a single point. Sorry bud, that's not good enough.

LAST WEEK: Steve Downie, Antoine Vermette, David Clarkson, Dustin Brown,  Mike Santorelli, John Carlson, Tomas Fleischmann, Dainius Zubrus, Tyler Toffoli

Who jumped the most spots in my player rankings since Last Week?

1) Ed Jovanovski, Fla - (739 to 636)

2) Andrej Meszaros, Phi - (462 to 352)

3) Trevor Lewis, LA - (557 to 461)

4) Jacob Trouba, Wpg - (345 to 257)

5) Mark Barberio, TB - (538 to 452)

6) Nikita Kucherov, TB - (434 to 352)

7) Alex Semin, Was - (272 to 191)

8) Zack Kassian, Van - (440 to 370)

9) Tyson Barrie, Col - (396 to 327)

10) Teemu Selanne, Ana - (358 to 293)

Who fell the most in my rankings since Last Week? (but still played at least 4 games since Jan 5)
1) Nail Yakupov, Edm - (385 to 465)

2) Ryan Smyth, Edm - (316 to 378)

3) Seth Jones, Nsh - (296 to 353)

4) Tuomo Ruutu, Car - (353 to 407)

5) Justin Faulk, Car - (190 to 244)

6) Nick Schultz, Edm - (509 to 560)

7) Raphael Diaz, Mtl - (346 to 392)

8) Alex Chiasson, Dal - (223 to 261)

9) Daniel Winnik, Ana - (216 to 253)

10) Mike Cammalleri, Cgy - (239 to 275)

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