Sunday, September 19, 2021

Best NHL Contracts 2021

For the 10th time in 10 years, here is my annual Best NHL Contracts rankings. It has always been intended as the “best bargains”, so I have always excluded the league’s highest paid players. The first winner in 2011 was Kris Letang, in the 2nd year of a bargain bridge for a $3.5M cap hit. Past iterations of this list have had a lower cap on the maximum allowable salary to qualify as a “bargain”, but in 2020 the cap was set at $10M. There’s a strong argument to be made that Connor McDavid has the best contract in the league, despite being the highest paid player. My best contracts list was never intended to be a ranking of the league’s best players. Other people who do their own versions of this will often just rank the best players, with less concern about the actual dollar amount. Only one player with a cap hit of $10M or more has won a playoff series in the salary cap era, and that was Carey Price.



Another important note, entry level contracts are not included. Some of them are bargains, but they are cookie cutter deals that don’t require the same skill of negotiation. The price is generally pre-determined. Plus those are all short-term deals, that tend to be nearing their end once they start to get exceedingly productive. I’m generally looking for deals with more meat on the bone, hence why you also won’t find any with 1 year remaining. In past years, I’ve also cut off the list to players under the age of 30. It would give me an excuse to exclude Brad Marchand, who still produces at an insane clip for his age and price tag. Will this be the year that Father Time finally reels him in for a career devastating face lick? I decided to waive the no “over-30” rule, in part because of Victor Hedman, who belongs here despite being 30 years old.

Hockey Twitter was enlisted to help me determine the final rankings. Though I'll admit, it can be hard to get a unbiased sample when running a poll on "who has a better contract", if a disproportionate number of fans from any one specific team show up to vote. Sometimes a simple like or retweet from a podcast or blogger can substantially skew the results. So the poll results did help me forge this list, but the final ranks were not strictly based on vote tallies.

  

1) Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado:

    2020 Rank: 1
    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 2 years
    Cap Hit: $6.3M
    Signing GM: Joe Sakic, July 8, 2016

Nathan MacKinnon is among the top 3 players in the NHL, scoring at a 111-point pace over the past 2 seasons. If he were to test the UFA market tomorrow, he would unquestionably solicit offers greater than the $12.5M cap hit commanded by Connor McDavid. This is the 4th consecutive season that MacKinnon has finished atop my best contract rankings. There are few players who are more underpaid and he gets asked about it constantly. He claims that he’s happy to take less money if it gives the team more money to spend building a champion around him, and that he’ll strongly consider taking a discount on his next deal too.

His goal is the Stanley Cup, and he’s supremely motivated to lift that legendary trophy over his head. Next year we’ll have a new best contract champ, since I do not include expiring contracts. The Hockey world is fascinated to see what his next salary will be.


 

2) Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton:

    2020 Rank: 2
    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $8.5M
    Signing GM: Peter Chiarelli, Aug 16, 2017

Leon Draisaitl received strong consideration for the top spot on this list, mostly due to the extra term owing. MacKinnon is a significantly bigger bargain, but with half as much time remaining. To help me resolve this internal debate, I decided to ask Twitter, who convincingly gave the edge to MacKinnon despite Draisaitl winning the 2020 Hart Trophy as NHL MVP. The Oilers center has scored at a 125-point pace over the last 2 seasons, though some of the credit for his proficiency can be attributed to playing with Connor McDavid on the Edmonton power play. Though when the pair has been split up 5v5, Leon continued to produce at an elite level.

His numbers might get a boost from McDavid, but his talent is not an illusion. Year one of this deal when Draisaitl scored 70 PTS was not considered to be the massive bargain it has become. By year two he was a 100-point player.


 

3) Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 27
    Remaining Term: 7 years
    Cap Hit: $9.5M
    Signing GM: Julien Brisebois, July 29, 2019

Andrei Vasilevskiy won a Vezina trophy and a Stanley Cup on his previous contract with a $3.5M cap hit. There are many who believe that you should never pay a goaltender in the $10M range, but those critics were silenced (at least temporarily) when the Stanley Cup final featured 2 of the 3 highest paid goalies. The Russian was dominant in winning his 2nd Cup while also being awarded the Conn Smythe trophy as playoff MVP, and he likely isn’t done collecting hardware. Vasilevskiy is on a level above his peers and would solicit a bidding war if he reached the open market tomorrow.

Is it possible that he could experience a Bobrovsky type collapse in his later years? Perhaps, but Bob was never able to reach Vasilevskiy’s level in the playoffs against top competition. That’s the key difference between the two Russian netminders. Bob was just as dominant when he was hot, but was also more likely to hit cold streaks.


 

4) Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay:

     2020 Rank: 4
    Age: 30
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $7.9M
    Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, July 1st, 2016

It may not have felt like an incredible bargain when Victor Hedman signed this contract for $7.9M in 2016, but after 2 Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe trophy, it almost feels unfair that Tampa gets a defenseman this good at that price; especially after Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson reset the market for elite defensemen (you can read about them on my worst contract list). Hedman has now passed his 30th birthday, so there is cause for mild concern, but he’s still at the peak of his game, scoring 39 PTS in the last 2 playoffs.

As long as he can maintain his role on the deadly Tampa power play, he’ll continue to put up dominant offensive numbers. It’s important to note that he’s not just a one-trick pony, as he also plays an important role on their penalty kill and shutting down the best players on the other team. He’s the complete package at a great price.


 

5) David Pastrnak, Boston:

     2020 Rank: 3
    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 2 years
    Cap Hit: $6.8M
    Signing GM: Don Sweeney, Sep 14, 2017

David Pastrnak played like a $7M player in 2016/17 in the final year of his ELC, so accepting this particular salary was not a substantial discount at the moment it was signed. But within 2 years he was scoring at a 100-point pace, and netting 95 in 70 GP before Covid shut down the NHL. He would require hip surgery that cost him the first 2 weeks of the 2021 schedule, then merely scored at a point per game pace in the pandemic compressed season, showing some signs of regression. His ceiling over the final 2 years is largely dependent on how Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron handle their battles against Father Time.

I’m optimistic that a full healthy offseason to train and prepare will help Pasta recapture some of that pre-Covid magic. It will be interesting to see if he’s willing to ink another discounted long-term deal with the Bruins when this expires, given that Bergeron and Marchand will be near the end and the team may be heading for a rough patch.


 

6) Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 6 years
    Cap Hit: $9.5M
    Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, July 10, 2018

Nikita Kucherov had been selected for my 2020 best contract list before it was announced that he would miss the entire 2021 regular season after hip surgery. Suddenly I was concerned about the long-term health of the 2019 Hart trophy winner. Kucherov returned to score 32 PTS in 23 playoff games, capturing another Stanley Cup. A majority of players tend to be in decline by age 28, so when you add 6 years of term to a surgically repaired hip, this might not look so good in the future. In the near-term, this is one of the most valuable assets in the NHL. Scoring 66 PTS in the last 2 playoffs, winning 2 Cups in the process, is a legendary accomplishment.

There are still some lingering doubts about his long-term health, but he belongs on this list in 2021 to celebrate his outstanding playoff accomplishments. Whether or not he’ll return to this list in 2022 remains to be seen.


 

7) Shea Theodore, Vegas:

     2020 Rank: 7
    Age: 26
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $5.2M
    Signing GM: George McPhee, Sep 25, 2018 

Shea Theodore has evolved into one of the league’s best offensive defensemen, scoring at a 65-point pace in 2021. Locking him into a 7-year term at $5.2M has provided a wicked bargain to the Anaheim Ducks Vegas Golden Knights, especially after Zach Werenski just signed an extension north of $9M. Shea did not bet on himself and the market for high-end defensemen reset midway through this term. He may very well have left over $15M in career earnings on the negotiating table, and may have difficulty soliciting another long-term deal when his expires at age 30.

Sure, he’ll earn $36M on this contract, and there’s not a big quality of life difference between $36M and $50M, so he’s going to be just fine when he retires. Shea will make up some of the difference with no state tax in Nevada, and taking a discount gives Vegas a better chance of winning a championship.


 

8) Jakob Chychrun, Arizona:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 23
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $4.6M
    Signing GM: John Chayka, Nov 13, 2018

Jakob Chychrun had trouble staying healthy early in his career, which stunted his development. John Chayka was taking a risk when he inked the young defenseman to a 6-year term, but sometimes you need to take a risk to bank a big reward. In year one this looked like a B- investment when he scored at a 34-point pace, but advanced into A+ territory when he exploded out of the gate in 2021. At age 22, he elevated his scoring output to 60 PTS per 82 GP, which would carry an expected free agent salary north of $8M. He’s being paid roughly half of what he’s worth and still has 4 years remaining.

There will likely be some regression in the upcoming season as the team prepares to tank for the foreseeable future. It will get harder to score as the exodus of talent continues. It all depends what happens on the power play, where he was a high-volume shooter last season.


 

9) Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg:

    2020 Rank: 8

    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6.1M
    Signing GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff, July 8, 2016

After his hit on Jake Evans in the playoffs, many of you probably wanted to see Mark Scheifele cancelled from the 2021 best contracts list, but he still finished 9th in NHL scoring and nobody scored more points for a lower cap hit. Even if you think he should be suspended for the entire 2021/22 campaign, the production he provides at the price he costs is a top 10 bargain. Scheifele was deliberately excluded from my best contract Twitter poll series because the jury pool has been tainted, and it’s unlikely that he would get a fair shake.

For 4 straight years heading into 2021, Scheifele consistently produced at a scoring pace between 82-85 PTS, then elevated to 92 PTS per 82 GP during the pandemic. The production will undoubtedly drop in the upcoming season when the Jets return to their tough division, but he’s still among the game’s best centers.

 

10) Brad Marchand, Boston:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 33
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $6.13M
    Signing GM: Don Sweeney, Sept 26, 2016

I already incorrectly forecast Brad Marchand’s demise in my 2021 fantasy hockey bust list as he went on to score above a 100-point pace yet again. Clearly my ability to predict his career trajectory is flawed. In my defense, he did have off-season surgery, so some concern was justified. Bradley consistently performed strong in my Twitter poll series, a noteworthy accomplishment for such a hated player. He’s been performing like a $10M player since the 2nd year of this contract, making it 3 consecutive seasons that he’s been underpaid by at least $4M.

Part of me hopes that his ranking here will serve as a jinx, and exacerbate his rate of decline. Sometimes it feels like I have that kind of power over the Universe. This already ranks high on my Bruins best contracts list due to the discount on the time already served. It’s the back half that makes me nervous.


 

11) Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida:

    2020 Rank: 11
    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 2 years
    Cap Hit: $5.9M
    Signing GM: Dale Tallon, Sep 6, 2016

Anyone who thought that the success of Jonathan Huberdeau was a product of playing with Aleksander Barkov was silenced in 2021 when the dynamic duo was split up and Huberdeau’s scoring rate only dropped from 93 to 91. It doesn’t matter who is playing on his line, Jonathan is able to drive the bus on his own. The winger is among the most unheralded talents in the league, but he’s very well known to anyone who plays fantasy hockey. Florida added some talent in the offseason, and may be creating an ideal scenario for Huberdeau to really crush those last 2 years.

The deal is comparable to Draisaitl in that year one only produced a modest return of 69 PTS, but by year two Jonny was a 90-point winger. From a career earnings standpoint, this contract ending after his 30th birthday will potentially limit his next pay day. He did not bet on himself, but still made more money than he can probably ever spend.

 

12) Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6.2M
    Signing GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff, July 12, 2018

If you are wondering why the 2020 Vezina trophy winner was not on my 2020 best NHL contracts list, it’s because that was mostly determined by a series of Twitter polls, and Hellebuyck was knocked out early. In all fairness, goalie contracts can be extremely unreliable, so there was some reasonable doubt when Hellebuyck was previously rejected by the voters. But another season with outstanding numbers behind a porous defense, Hellebuyck performed much better in the latest poll series. His annual regular season Save % since 2018 is (.924, .913, .922, .916), a high ceiling and a high floor.

After the Jets made a series of moves to strengthen their back-end during the offseason, we may see Connor push his ceiling a little bit higher. Or perhaps the weak defense made him look better, increasing his value to the team. The aging curve is different for goalies, so 3 years left at age 28 is not a concern for me.


*Note: The above poll was taken before Vasilevskiy had officially won 2 Stanley Cups and a Conn Smythe* 


13) Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $6M
    Signing GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff, Oct 4, 2017

Nikolaj Ehlers signed a long-term deal at the conclusion of his entry level contract then suffered a significant decline in year one (down to 49 PTS per 82 GP) in 2018/19. Fortunately for Jets fans, that was just a blip on the radar, and he fought his way back up to a 67-point pace in 2020 and career best 80 PTS in 2021. It remains to be seen how long he can sustain that level of production, or was it just his career year? Much depends on power play opportunities, with Maurice being reluctant to use him on the top unit in past seasons despite ample offensive talent.

Nikolaj has 4 years remaining, all under the age of 30, and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. The biggest concern would be his health and whether or not there are any long-term effects of his latest trip to the IR.


 

14) Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh:

    2020 Rank: 12

    Age: 26
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6M
    Signing GM: Jim Rutherford, Dec 27, 2018

Jake Guentzel missed most of the 2019/20 season with an injury and only experienced a 7-point decline in his 2021 scoring rate (netting 57 PTS in 56 GP). He has played most of his career with Sidney Crosby, so it’s difficult to gage how effective Jake would be had he been dealt a different hand. When Crosby was injured in 2019 and Guentzel moved to Malkin’s line, he also flourished. Had Guentzel been drafted by the Buffalo Sabres and didn’t have the Penguins deadly power play to boost his numbers, he probably wouldn’t be on this list. But that doesn’t mean that he’s not great at what he does, with a quick release and a superior instinct to get himself open around the net.

Being the perfect complement to Sidney Crosby isn’t as easy as you might think. The Guentzel gravy train would take a hit if Sid retires when the back-dive of his contract starts next season.


 

15) Kyle Connor, Winnipeg:

    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 24
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $7.14M
    Signing GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff, Sept 28, 2019

Kyle Connor is among the most dynamic offensive players in the NHL, scoring at a rate of 41 goals per 82 GP over the last 2 seasons. The Jets were lucky to lock him into a 7-year deal at age 22, which will expire at age 29. That’s a smarter path than bridging him for a few years and signing the long-term treaty at an older age. $7M isn’t cheap, but it is for a 40-goal scorer in the NHL. Legit snipers are a rare commodity.

Somehow there are a shocking number of Jets fans who seem to think Connor is overrated due to his poor “wins above replacement”. To me that only serves as evidence that the WAR models are flawed, and not correctly measuring his real contribution to success. He is the 4th Winnipeg Jet on this list, which should remind us all that the window is wide open for the next 3 years (even if Wheeler doesn’t age well).

 

Honorable Mentions: (in no particular order)

 
· Jaccob Slavin, CAR, 4 yrs at $5.3M:
· J.T Miller, VAN, 2 yrs at $5.25M:
· Bo Horvat, VAN, 2 yrs at $5.5M:
· Aaron Ekblad, FLA, 4 yrs $7.5M:
· Mikko Rantanen, COL, 4 yrs $9.25M:
· Devon Toews, COL, 3 yrs at $4.1M:
· Roope Hintz, DAL, 2 yrs at $3.2M:
· Ryan O’Reilly, STL, 2 yrs at $7.5M:
· MacKenzie Weegar, FLA, 2 yrs at $3.3M:
· Alex DeBrincat, CHI, 2 yrs at $6.4M:
· Sam Girard, COL, 6 yrs at $5M:
· Alex Tuch, VEG, 5 yrs at $4.75M:
· Chandler Stephenson, VEG, 3 yrs $2.75M:
· Mikhail Sergachev, TB, 2 yrs at $4.8M:
· Mathew Barzal, NYI, 2 yrs at $7M:
· Erik Cernak, TB, 2 yrs at $3M:
· Travis Konecny, PHI, 4 yrs at $5.5M:
· Dylan Larkin, DET, 2 yrs at $6.1M:
· Mattias Ekholm, NSH, 2 yrs at $3.75M:
· Ivan Provorov, PHI, 4 yrs at $6.75M:
· Damon Severson, NJ, 2 yrs at $4.2M:
· Thomas Chabot, OTT, 7 yrs at $8M:
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