2023/24 Week 15 Betting Report

Week fifteen of the NHL season has been logged into the history books, as the second half is fully underway, along with my “Tournament of Models”. It just so happens that 15 are competing for the distinction of being proclaimed my top model which began on week 15. That was purely coincidental. My updated “model explainer” will be coming out soon, because some of the new team members have not received a formal introduction or explanation. Being busy preparing my second quarterly report has contributed to the delay, and that should be ready to go in the next few days as well.
 
Before we go any further, it’s time for my obligatory *DISCLAIMER* it needs be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. My mission is to engage in a mass betting campaign, picking a winner of every single game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis, which can be shared with you, shedding light on what worked and what failed. I’m also tracking the results of betting every outcome, to help me (and you) uncover previously unknown or newly emerging profit vectors. What started as a thought experiment has evolved into much more.
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave. You’ll also receive weekly exclusive picks emails that are not posted on my blog.
 

The picks shared in my preview last week were bad, but there was a series of improbable events leading to that loss, Columbus (+180) beating Vancouver, Montreal (+185) beating Colorado, and Anaheim (+280) beating Florida. The probability of all 3 of those upsets happening was 3% (that would have been roughly +3200 on a parlay). It’s plausible that extraordinary unluckiness was me releasing a full slate of betting picks on Martin Luther King’s birthday. The same damned thing happened when I posted a big picks piece on Remembrance Day. Was MLK against gambling?
 
The good news is, if the ghost of MLK did put a jinx on my Monday picks, it expired by Tuesday, because my full slate of Tuesday picks went 11-5. My Monday over/under picks did go 6-3, so maybe the ghost of Dr. King is only opposed to moneylines and pucklines, but likes betting totals. He must have loved unders too, because those were the primary driver of my own early success, sustaining through the weekend. Unders went 28-22-3 this week as scoring is slowing league-wide. I’m working on my 2nd Quarter Report (coming soon) where I was awful when disagreeing with my primary algorithm, but not this week.
 
My Saturday over/under picks were outstanding aside from striking out hard on under 6.5 on Vancouver-Toronto. What differentiated me from my primary was the picks betting double (when the total is at least 0.75 goals above or below the input variable (avg goals last 8 games minus max and min)) also performing well when disagreeing entirely, which wasn’t the case later in the second quarter. Maybe the biggest news was the outstanding success of Full Season Average Goals, which was awful for most of Q2 but warmed up the last couple weeks, earning a reinstatement onto the Over Under Council (two had earned a demotion).
 
It would be a nice story if Full Season Avg sustained success, which would surely help novice bettors a great deal. That’s got to be the most common method for casuals, look at the standings, add GF + GA divide by GP. The latest additions to my advisory team may deserve some of the credit for my awesome week. Goalies Last 30 Days was born a while ago but was a late addition to the leaderboard in my tracking, so I didn’t even notice that it was substantially outperforming my “Betting Goalies” over/under model until recently. It’s worth noting; when Prime, Max Profit, & GL30 all bet the same way, they are 89-59-4. If you bet $100 on each, you'd be up $1,988.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Edmonton Oilers, +$906
 
The Edmonton Oilers went undefeated this week and I went undefeated on my Oilers picks, pulling them out of last place in my profitability rankings. My full season loss when betting them to win was reduced to -$1,100. Granted it could have been a little better, as my wagers were all moneyline when all their pucklines covered, though that wasn’t the case one week earlier, which is why my guard went up. Their line prices are getting painfully expensive, so I’m very interested to see how my value-based Hedge Fund handles them second half (last 30 days they’re down big betting Oilers to lose).
 
The Ottawa Senators might be spiraling towards a trade deadline talent dump and a shot at Celebrini in the draft lottery, but that doesn’t seem to be hurting my performance betting their games. What will hurt is if they suddenly spark a heater when I’m aggressively betting them to lose (like their come from behind win against Philly). Right now, road games are the safe space, while they are frisky on home ice. The biggest issue for them is the goaltending, and maybe if Jacques Martin can implement a strong defensive system we’ll see the team’s profile change second half.
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Anaheim Ducks, -$814
 
The Anaheim Ducks were dead last in my profit ranks this week, starting with their improbable 3rd period comeback against the previously hot Florida Panthers. The worse news is that victory inspired me to place small bets on Ducks to win/cover the next 3 games which they all lost by at least 2 goals. Turns out that Florida magic was random and temporary, though they were leading the Rangers in the 3rd period before giving up 4 unanswered goals. They beat Florida then lost to Washington and San Jose, so I’m hoping they’re back to comfortably bad, as you can read about in my picks below.
 
Not far behind the Ducks was the Carolina Hurricanes, with all the damage inflicted in their home losses to Minnesota and Los Angeles. The Kings were on a long losing streak and Minnesota is generally worse on the road, so both picks felt smart at the time, but evidently not having their best goalie Pyotr Kochetkov is diminishing their effectiveness. Raanta played well in his first few games replacing Koch, but struggled in the last 3. In retrospect betting under in all 3 games was a mistake as their overs went 2-1. At least now we know the good version of him was just temporary.
 
 

My Week 15 Results

*Note* “Overall Market Bets” based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome. 
 

The big winners this week were favorites -1.5 goals, home ML, and unders. You can see those unders were the biggest driver behind my winning week (I was a net loser on ML and PL). This was just a great week in general for favorites, evidenced by my Fave Lover model finishing first place and taking the early lead in my Tournament of Models. It’s no coincidence then that Dog Lover was among the worst models, because there was no good way to put lipstick on that pig. There are some weeks were they both profit, so it’s not impossible, but they often bet opposite sides of the same game. Dog Lover abstains when both teams are -110 ML. You need to be a legit dog.
 

The Florida Panthers endured some hardship, going 0-3 this week, the last two without Aleksander Barkov (who was also sorely missed by one of my fantasy teams that was already without Nichushkin, Kane, Heiskanen, and Adin Hill). This team has generally been a stay away for me when missing Barkov, but I picked them at home against Minnesota because the Wild were on a back-to-back and are worse on the road (Minnesota went 3-1 and were the best team to bet overall). Florida overs going 2-1 was also a net loser for me. Those unders had been on fire. Barkov is a Selke nominee. Makes sense. Vegas winning their last 3 in a row with all those injuries proved costly, so maybe a brake pump is warranted.
 
 

 

Team By Team Profitability Rankings

These profitability rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new Profitability Rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week. Colorado moved into first place for the first time this season, but the Sharks haven’t really moved since the first quarter (posting a small loss in Q2).