Monday, January 29, 2024

2023/24 Week 17 Fantasy Hockey Waiver Report

Week 17 of the NHL season is here and I have some potential streaming targets. The award for best schedule this week is a 3-way tie between Vancouver, Colorado, and Washington, the only teams playing 4 times (all facing similar caliber opponents and only 1 light night each). This is a wonky schedule spanning 14-days because of the bye week and all-star break, but if you scroll down to see my strength of schedule and watch list graphics with stats last 30 days and player’s upcoming schedules, it should help you navigate this storm.
 
My blog has been moved to Substack this season and I’ll be repeatedly encouraging everyone to sign-up for a free subscription to alleviate my dependence on Twitter for traffic. I’m concerned that Elon will follow through on his threat to charge everyone for Twitter and ostensibly destroy his own company. Subscribers receive an email notification each time a new post is published, and even if Twitter stays free, the algorithm likes to hide Tweets with links so you don’t leave.
 
Best Standard League Adds (25% to 65% Yahoo ownership):
 
1) Jonathan Drouin, Col, (31% Yahoo ownership): Jonathan Drouin was featured here 2 weeks ago for his deployment on line 1, power play 1 with MacKinnon and Rantanen. The Avalanche are one of only 3 teams playing 4 times with the bye week and Drouin has scored 13 PTS (5 on the PP) in his last 14 GP. If you do roster Drouin, keep an eye on the Colorado lines to make sure he hasn’t lost his spot on that line to Artturi Lehkonen, who has returned from injury and filled that role effectively before. He’s listed on line 3 for now, but may be worth an add himself to get those 4 games. Frankly I’d rather let him play a few games and officially moved up the line-up before I’m buying stock, but you may want to be the early bird in a deeper format.

2) Charlie Lindgren, Wsh, (42% Yahoo ownership): This isn’t going to be an easy schedule for the Caps and they’re a middling team at best, but they are among the few with a busy week, so there aren’t any higher quality options who will be this busy. Lindgren’s play has slipped in the last few weeks, sinking below a .900 SV% in the last 30 days after missing some time with an injury. With Carter Hart possibly facing criminal charges, Samuel Ersson’s fantasy stock gets a boost. If he’s now the undisputed #1 for a Flyers team contending for a playoff spot, he should be worth a permanent hold in standard leagues (despite his recent hot streak cooling off in the last 2 weeks, down to a .907 SV% last 30 days).

3) Charlie Coyle, Bos, (57% Yahoo ownership): Charlie Coyle was my top waiver target last week as a result of centering line 1 and power play 1 for the Bruins. Sadly, they only play 3 games this week (no light nights) and Coyle appears to have been demoted to PP2 (usurped by Zacha who is not guaranteed to hold that role). What’s undeniable is that Coyle has 20 PTS in his last 16 GP, also putting up quality shot and hit totals. Another player recommended here last week that’s worth hanging on to is Sam Bennett, though he was demoted to PP2 after Barkov return (as I warned could happen), but Barkov was hurt in the game tonight and could miss more time (my fantasy team certainly hopes Barkov is fine, but if he’s not, Bennett benefits).

4) Josh Manson, Col, (32% Yahoo ownership): Josh Manson has survived into my weekly watchlist top 8 blueline targets a few times in the past month because of the impressive numbers he’s been putting up for Colorado. In his last 12 GP, Manson has 8 PTS, 22 shots, and 40 hits. That’s going to help you in a few different formats and the Avs are the team to target for the bye week. If you’re in a categories league and REALLY want to crush hits, do what I’ve done and add Jeremy Lauzon. Nashville only plays 3, but Lauzon is smashing into opponents at a clip of 5 per game. Manson has a little more offensive upside, but Lauzon is a hitting machine. I’m eyeing him for my other team too, and may hold permanently to lock down hits weekly.
 
5) Dakota Joshua, Van, (31% Yahoo ownership): Another player getting plugged here quasi-regularly is Dakota Joshua, who continues putting up good numbers in Vancouver. In his last 13 GP, Joshua has 8 PTS with 20 shots and 36 hits. The Canucks play 4 games this week, and there aren’t very many appealing options outside the top guys you’re unlikely to find on waivers. His ice time keeps creeping up as that line has been very effective and earning extra ice (I watch nearly every Canucks game). If you’d rather more offensive upside, Joel Farabee in Philly is on a nice heater, scoring 18 PTS (5 on the PP) in his last 16 GP, playing on line 2 and power play 1. Flyers only play 3, otherwise he’d be higher up the list.
 
Honorable Mentions: Same Bennett, Samuel Ersson, Joel Farabee, Jeremy Lauzon, Artturi Lehkonen
 
Last Week: Charlie Coyle, Trevor Moore, Sam Bennett, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Hampus Lindholm
 
 
Best Deep League Adds (under 26% ownership):
 
1) Samuel Girard, Col, (11% Yahoo ownership): We have been pumping up the Colorado Avalanche, so let’s add one more to the list. It would appear that the player assistance program fixed whatever was ailing Samuel Girard, scoring 7 PTS in his last 12 GP (with 14 shots and 17 hits). It’s hard to get power play time on the Avs blueline, so they currently have Girard playing wing on the 2nd unit. The biggest knock on Girard is his low shot totals, though his hitting does appear to be up. If you’d rather get even more hits from your defense, Jake McCabe is a decent choice with 7 PTS in his last 15 GP with 16 shots and 35 hits. Leafs only play 3, but the opponents leak goals comfortably above average.

2) Ross Colton, Col, (19% Yahoo ownership): This recommendation really only applies while Valeri Nichushkin is enrolled in the player assistance program, since Ross Colton has replaced him on the Avs top power play. He’s eligible at both center and LW, scoring 8 PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 12 GP, adding 22 shots and 17 hits. Widely available, good peripheral stats, 4 games, and exposure to a deadly power play. Sign me up. His teammate Logan O’Connor doesn’t play on the Avs power play, but that hasn’t stopped him from catching fire. In his last 14 GP, the winger has 12 PTS with 27 shots, 11 hits, and +8. This is the final Colorado player in this report, but there is one more down on the watch list.
 
3) Max Pacioretty, Wsh, (23% Yahoo ownership): Max Pacioretty received an honorable mention here recently upon returning from injury, and the Washington Capitals are one of the few 4-game options. This is the best possible time to add “Patches” who has scored 7 PTS (3 on the power play) in his last 11 GP, with 26 shots and 12 hits. The Caps have him playing top line and top power play with Ovechkin, who admittedly has been wounded by Father Time. Another player who joins Max on that Caps top power play (and might be their best PP trigger man now) is T.J Oshie. In his last 8 GP, Oshie has scored 6 goals and 7 PTS (3 on the PP) with 22 shots and 10 hits after a painfully slow start to the season.
 
4) Laurent Brossoit, Wpg, (18% Yahoo ownership): There are slim pickings for goalies you can expect to get multiple starts, so you’ll have to settle for a spot-start option. One back-up who has been lights out last 30 days is Laurent Brossoit, winning 3 of 4 with a .957 SV%, and should get either the Flyers or Penguins. The Jets goaltending tandem has been the best in the NHL, but they have lost 2 games in a row and now Morrissey is banged up. Another option is Casey DeSmith, who gives you a good shot at a win against either Detroit or Washington (probably Washington, with Demko likely to face Carolina and Boston). DeSmith has does have 2 bad starts in his last 4, so his SV% the last 30 days has fallen, but I’m not terribly concerned.
 
5) Nick Paul, TB, (16% Yahoo ownership): The Tampa Bay Lightning might only play 3 games, but the Rangers, Islanders, and Blue Jackets have all been easy to score on lately. Paul plays on the Bolts top unit power play, though his 6 PTS (2 on the PP) in his last 14 GP is a little low, but 29 shots and 11 hits does provide some additional value in category leagues. I’m less excited about Paul after writing that analysis, but maybe he’s due for positive regression. Given the weird schedule, you may want to consider adding someone from Nashville or Ottawa, who play twice before the break. Josh Norris has 3 PTS in his last 4 GP after missing some time with injury. He plays top line and second power play.
 
Honorable Mentions: T. J Oshie, Jake McCabe, Logan O’Connor, Casey DeSmith, Josh Norris
 
Last Week: Chandler Stephenson, Trent Frederic, Dave Rittich, Matt Roy, Cole Sillinger
 



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