NHL Draft Probabilities for United States Development Program

**The sample below is for players who played for the United States Development Program at age 16 (the season before draft eligibility).**

ABOUT THE DATA  (for more detailed information about the data, click here)

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP. The chart at the bottom is for Expected GP and PTS.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

* 34% of these players will play 100 NHL games before age 26, where for the rest of the draft population the average is 22.7%. USDP player do exceed average statistical milestones of the whole population.

	PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	95.5%	4.5%	3.8%	x	x
19	84.1%	15.9%	12.1%	3.0%	x
20	76.7%	23.3%	19.8%	8.6%	x
21	61.8%	38.2%	32.4%	14.7%	1.0%
22	47.1%	52.9%	43.5%	18.8%	3.5%
23	41.7%	58.3%	44.4%	18.1%	5.6%
24	43.3%	56.7%	43.3%	31.7%	11.7%
25	38.0%	62.0%	52.0%	34.0%	16.0%
	PROBABILITY OF NHL PTS MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	96.2%	3.8%	3.0%	0.0%	x
19	85.6%	14.4%	7.6%	0.8%	x
20	77.6%	22.4%	13.8%	1.7%	x
21	65.7%	34.3%	23.5%	4.9%	1.0%
22	54.1%	45.9%	29.4%	9.4%	1.2%
23	51.4%	48.6%	34.7%	15.3%	2.8%
24	50.0%	50.0%	35.0%	16.7%	3.3%
25	46.0%	54.0%	42.0%	18.0%	4.0%
	PROBABILITY OF AHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	97.7%	2.3%	0.8%	0.0%	x
19	76.5%	23.5%	11.4%	0.0%	x
20	55.2%	44.8%	31.9%	4.3%	x
21	33.3%	66.7%	50.0%	15.7%	x
22	15.3%	84.7%	75.3%	31.8%	0.0%
23	9.7%	90.3%	81.9%	52.8%	0.0%
24	11.7%	88.3%	80.0%	53.3%	1.7%
25	8.0%	92.0%	84.0%	58.0%	4.0%

Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Then there is the ability to determine what proportion of the sample is earning what salary at any given age.  $0 players are those who play zero regular season games in the AHL or NHL. It's important to note that these are not career earnings below, but rather for that specific age.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.


Expected Value: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included.

Analysis:

* Almost half of this sample was drafted in the first 2 rounds. Expected value is higher for higher draft picks. Their average Salary comes in $495,402 below Expected value. The best players who emerge from this source will return good value, but many of the mid level prospects are drafted higher than they otherwise should be. We see a strong return on value in the early ages, when the best players are turning pro. Then once the middling players start graduating from college, the value drops.

	SALARY INFO
		% of players earning this salary range
AGE	Salary/Pro	$0	< $1M	> $ 1M	> $4M
18	$1,854,458	93.9%	3.0%	3.0%	0.0%
19	$1,031,152	70.5%	24.2%	5.3%	0.0%
20	$610,950	51.7%	39.7%	8.6%	0.0%
21	$760,974	31.4%	53.9%	14.7%	2.9%
22	$624,739	14.1%	70.6%	15.3%	4.7%
23	$611,230	13.9%	70.8%	15.3%	4.2%
24	$832,719	26.7%	51.7%	21.7%	10.0%
25	$905,128	46.0%	32.0%	22.0%	12.0%
sum	$5,376,892
	SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE	Salary-E[V]	E[V]	Sum(E{V])	Salary/GP	Salary/PTS
19	$83,788	$947,364	$947,364	$26,920	$63,076
20	$43,973	$566,977	$1,514,341	$27,128	$59,005
21	$63,782	$697,192	$2,211,533	$28,934	$66,461
22	-$75,866	$700,605	$2,912,137	$30,982	$72,050
23	-$264,620	$875,851	$3,787,988	$30,800	$66,357
24	-$142,249	$974,968	$4,762,955	$43,035	$97,016
25	-$204,211	$1,109,339	$5,872,294	$41,520	$90,876
Sum	-$495,402

PICKS per ROUND
Round	Picks	%
1	32	24.2%
2	32	24.2%
3	13	9.8%
4	19	14.4%
5	17	12.9%
6	11	8.3%
7+	8	6.1%

Development Matrix

If you would like to see how a sample of draft picks advances through different leagues and skill levels, welcome to the Development Matrix (or more correctly, matrices). If a draft pick played at least 1 game at any level last year, where is he likely to go next year?

Important Notes:

* KHL = Russian Elite, EurMA  = Euro Mainland Elite (Czeck, Slovakia, Germany, Swiss), ScanA = Scandinavian Elite (Sweden and Finland), EurB = All of the 2nd tier European leagues, EurJr = All European junior leagues,  CHL = Canadian Major Junior, WJC = Under 20 World Junior Championship, Tier II = All North American amateur that doesn't ruin NCAA eligibility, USDP = United States Development Program

* Age 17 is the first year of NHL draft eligibility.

* Charts meant to be read left to right, not up and down.

* Do not sum the numbers in any direction. It is what percentage of the sample played at least 1 game at any level and many play at more than one level.

Analysis:

*72% of the sample that played USDP at age 16 returned to USDP at 17 for their draft year.

DEVELOPMENT MATRIX
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 18
Sample	at Age 17	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.8%	ScanA	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13.6%	NCAA	11.1%	83.3%	11.1%	5.6%
9.1%	CHL	66.7%	0.0%	8.3%	33.3%
10.6%	WJC	14.3%	57.1%	21.4%	28.6%
0.8%	Eurjr	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8.3%	Tier II	0.0%	63.6%	0.0%	0.0%
72.0%	USDP	10.5%	86.3%	0.0%	1.1%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 19
Sample	at Age 18	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
4.5%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	83.3%
2.3%	AHL	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	66.7%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
77.3%	NCAA	6.9%	87.3%	17.6%	8.8%
15.2%	CHL	55.0%	0.0%	65.0%	35.0%
34.1%	WJC	8.9%	62.2%	33.3%	28.9%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4.5%	Tier II	0.0%	83.3%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 20
Sample	at Age 19	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
15.2%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	38.9%	88.9%
22.7%	AHL	10.7%	0.0%	71.4%	46.4%
0.0%	ECHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
71.2%	NCAA	3.7%	82.7%	25.9%	8.6%
13.6%	CHL	29.4%	0.0%	76.5%	23.5%
45.5%	WJC	1.9%	63.0%	44.4%	24.1%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.5%	Tier II	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 21
Sample	at Age 20	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
21.6%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	100.0%
37.1%	AHL	0.0%	5.7%	91.4%	62.9%
1.7%	ECHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.9%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
58.6%	NCAA	66.1%	1.6%	54.8%	21.0%
4.3%	CHL	0.0%	60.0%	60.0%	0.0%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.7%	Tier II	100.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 22
Sample	at Age 21	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
38.2%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	45.2%	90.3%
55.9%	AHL	0.0%	4.1%	83.7%	57.1%
5.9%	ECHL	0.0%	40.0%	60.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
41.2%	NCAA	14.7%	26.5%	76.5%	26.5%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 23
Sample	at Age 22	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
49.4%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	57.1%	94.3%
67.1%	AHL	0.0%	12.0%	84.0%	50.0%
12.9%	ECHL	0.0%	45.5%	63.6%	9.1%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.2%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.2%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7.1%	NCAA	20.0%	40.0%	60.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 24
Sample	at Age 23	KHL	ECHL	AHL	NHL
52.8%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	31.0%	79.3%
65.3%	AHL	0.0%	27.8%	69.4%	30.6%
15.3%	ECHL	0.0%	66.7%	66.7%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2.8%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%
1.4%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.4%	NCAA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 25
Sample	at Age 24	KHL	ECHL	AHL	NHL
41.7%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	17.4%	82.6%
43.3%	AHL	9.1%	18.2%	45.5%	18.2%
18.3%	ECHL	12.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
1.7%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%